11-6-13

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Central Michigan at Ball State: What bettors need to know

Central Michigan Chippewas at Ball State Cardinals (-20.5, 55.5)

The Ball State Cardinals face the Northern Illinois Huskies next week in a game that could very well decide who finishes atop the Mid-American Conference's West Division. But the Cardinals can't afford to look past this week's matchup as they bring their unbeaten conference mark into Wednesday night's showdown with the visiting Central Michigan Chippewas. Ball State has reeled off six consecutive wins, while Central Michigan is coming off a 38-17 loss to the Huskies.

Ball State's fortunes rest on the cannon arm of senior quarterback Keith Wenning, who is well on his way to locking up conference Player of the Year honors. Wenning leads the MAC in passing yards (2,865) and touchdowns (28), and is coming off an impressive five-TD performance in a 42-24 victory over the Akron Zips back on Oct. 26. The Chippewas will be in tough against the Cardinals' high-powered offense, having surrendered a whopping 33.4 points per game.

TV: 8 p.m. ET, ESPN2
LINE: Ball State opened as a 19.5-point favorite and has since been bet up to 20.5. The total has come down from 58 to 55.5 points.
WEATHER: Temperatures will be in the high-50s with showers expected and wind blowing north across the length of the field at 8 mph.

ABOUT CENTRAL MICHIGAN (3-5, 2-2 MAC): For Chippewas fans seeking reason for optimism, Cooper Rush has provided plenty over the past two games. The freshman quarterback struggled following an impressive three-touchdown debut Sept. 7 against New Hampshire, but has returned to form with five TD passes against just two interceptions over his previous two games. Starting running back Saylor Lavallii has racked up 388 yards over his last three games.

ABOUT BALL STATE (8-1, 5-0 MAC): A trio of receivers have benefited the most from Wenning's outstanding senior campaign. Willie Snead leads the conference in receptions (65), receiving yards (1,057) and touchdowns (10) while teammate Jordan Williams ranks second in yardage (792) and scores (seven). Senior wideout Jamill Smith has also been solid so far this season, ranking seventh in the conference with 592 receiving yards and adding four TDs.

TRENDS:

* Chippewas are 8-2-1 ATS in their last 11 games following a bye week.
* Cardinals are 15-5 ATS in their last 20 games following an ATS win.
* Under is 6-0-1 in Ball State's last seven games after scoring 40 or more points in their previous contest.

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Ball State hosts Central Michigan Wednesday night
by Freddy Wander

Kickoff: Wednesday, 8:00 p.m. ET
Line: Ball State -20.5, Total: 58

Ball State attempts to stay undefeated in the Mid-American Conference on Wednesday night as it hosts Central Michigan, winners of two of its past three games.

The Cardinals have been on top of their game this season, with their only loss coming in the second week of the season against North Texas in a 34-27 game. They have really dominated in their five conference games this season, winning all five SU and going 4-1 ATS. Central Michigan has split its four conference games this season, both SU and ATS. The Chippewas were beat up by Northern Illinois at home, giving up 437 rushing yards in a 38-17 loss. Since 1992, Ball State has a 14-7 SU record against CMU but is only 7-8 ATS. The Cardinals have won the past two matchups in this series (both SU and ATS), but are 2-6 ATS in their past eight games against Central Michigan at home. Last season, Ball State won 41-30 on the road as a 3-point favorite, but the offensive numbers were similar with a 464 to 446 total yards advantage going to the Cardinals. The Chippewas have really struggled recently away from home and are 6-13 ATS in their last 19 road games.

Central Michigan has had a lackluster season up to this point, but has seemed to settle into the middle of the MAC nicely, beating the teams that are weak, but losing decisively to the teams on top. Redshirt freshman QB Cooper Rush (1,575 pass yards, 11 TD, 10 INT) has been given the starting job and has been slowly making progress throughout the season. In CMU wins, Rush has gone a combined 50-for-81 (62%) for 660 yards, six touchdowns and two interceptions. But in team losses, he has combined to go 69-for-139 (49.6%) for 915 yards, five touchdowns and eight interceptions. While Central Michigan is near the bottom of the nation in rushing yards per game (125 YPG, 102nd in the nation), they have a solid HB in Saylor Lavallii, who has rushed for 758 yards on 154 attempts (4.9 YPC) and five touchdowns. In the team's two conference wins this year, he has averaged 167.5 rushing YPG and has two touchdowns. WR Titus Davis has seen most of the action in the passing game and has 34 catches for 627 yards (18.4 avg.) and five touchdowns. The Chippewas defense has surrendered 33.4 PPG, including 31+ points in each of their losses.

Ball State has had a tremendous season on offense and currently ranks in the top-20 in both passing yards (326 YPG, 16th in FBS) and scoring (39.4 PPG, 18th in nation). The biggest reason that this team is so high in the rankings is QB Keith Wenning, who has thrown for 2,865 yards, 23 touchdowns and only five interceptions on the year. Wenning has thrown for 300+ yards in eight out of nine games this season and has multiple touchdowns in all but one game. In the team's last game against Akron (42-24 Ball State victory), Wenning had a season-low 240 yards passing, but added a season-high five touchdowns. While the rushing attack adds only 142 YPG on the ground, they have scored 23 touchdowns running the ball. HB Jahwan Edwards has lead the way with 127 carries for 659 yards (5.2 YPC) and 12 touchdowns. Edwards is coming off of a 120-yard performance (4.8 YPC) with one touchdown against Akron. WR Willie Snead (65 catches, 1,057 yards, 10 TD, 16.3 avg.) and WR Jordan Williams (56 catches, 792 yards, 7 TD, 14.1 avg.) have accounted for just over 63% of the passing game. CB Jeffery Garrett (36 tackles, 4 interceptions) and the rest of the Cardinals defense has allowed 27 or fewer PPG during the team’s six-game win streak and will be sure to notch another win if they can limit their opponent again.

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Wednesday's Champions League betting cheat sheet

Wednesday's Champions League action features some of the best clubs in European football. Group F, the "Group of Death", features three teams deadlocked at six points with a massive fixture set to kickoff at the Westfalenstadion in Germany.

Borussia Dortmund vs. Arsenal (-143, +320, +400)

Why bet Dortmund: Dortmund proved just how good it was when they went to London and defeated Arsenal in the reverse fixture. The club is second domestically behind, who else, Bayern Munich and has won three-straight games.

Why bet Arsenal: The Gunners will know that if they lose here and Napoli defeats Marseille (which is highly likely), they could be sitting in third in the group with just a pair of matches remaining. They are coming off a great victory over Liverpool in the Premier League and still remain No. 1 in England.

Key betting note: The two teams have played Over the 2.5 goal total in three of their last four meetings.

Barcelona vs. AC Milan (-450, +600, +1400)

Why bet Barcelona: Barca will seek revenge for a stale draw in the reverse fixture. The Catalan side is, of course, leading La Liga and is in brilliant form heading into this match. They still have yet to lose in any competition this season.

Why bet Milan: This will be tough for Milan. Serie A has not been kind to the Italian giants. They sit 12th in the table and have lost three of five matches domestically. Champions League has served as a beacon of hope as they sit second, in front of Celtic and Ajax. They'll be happy with a draw here, but better be ready to defend with everything they have.

Key betting note: Barca has won the previous two meetings at Camp Nou by a combined score of 7-1.

Wednesday's other matches with odds:

Zenit St. Petersburg v FC Porto (+150, +240, +200)
Ajax v Celtic (-125, +280, +375)
Atletico Madrid v FK Austria Vienna (-900, +1000, +2800)
Basel v Steaua Bucharest (-163, +320, +500)
Chelsea v Schalke (-275, +425, +850)
Napoli v Marseille (-250, +380, +850)

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WINNING POINTS

**PREFERRED
*Orlando over Los Angeles Clippers by 3
The Magic aren't going to win many games this season, but they have guard Victor
Oladipo, a leading Rookie of the Year candidate, improved big man Nikola Vucevic
and are in a great ambush spot here. Orlando has been idle since Sunday. The Clippers
flew in from the West Coast following their Monday home game against Houston and
play the world champion Heat tomorrow night on national television. Which opponent
do you think the Clippers are emphasizing more? Something tells us it's the Heat.
ORLANDO 98-95.

Chicago over *Indiana by 1
The Bulls should be more than ready for this early-season physical showdown, having
been the only team to go unbeaten during preseason while the Pacers were under .500
in preseason and Danny Granger has yet to demonstrate that he's 100 percent.
CHICAGO 88-87.

*Charlotte over Toronto by 4
A number of Bobcats, including Kemba Walker, should be much improved this season.
Charlotte draws the Raptors playing in their fourth game in five days. Charlotte
entered the season having covered during its past four Wednesday games last season.
CHARLOTTE 102-98.

Washington over *Philadelphia by 3
The teams just met this past Friday in Washington. The Wizards failed to cover in
seven of their last eight road games to close out last season. Washington, however, has a huge backcourt edge.
Washington 95-92.

**PREFERRED
*Boston over Utah by 15
Boston has a rare chance to reward their faithful fans with a blowout victory. Like the
Celtics, the Jazz face a massive rebuilding job. Utah had the worst record in preseason
and are playing their fourth game in five days and second road matchup in 48 hours.
The Jazz don't have nearly enough quality bodies to withstand that kind of physical
toll.
BOSTON 101-86.

*Memphis over New Orleans by 9
The Grizzlies shouldn't be taking the Pelicans lightly as New Orleans won, 90-83, at
home when these teams last met on March 22. Memphis entered the season 11-3 ATS
versus Western Conference opponents.
MEMPHIS 91-82.

*Milwaukee over Cleveland by 1
Milwaukee has had three full days to rest and prepare for this matchup. Still, the Bucks
had failed to cover in 22 of their last 28 games versus Eastern Conference foes entering the season and have a turned over roster with a new coach. The Cavaliers figure to be stronger defensively under Mike Brown. Kyrie Irving easily is the best player on the court.
MILWAUKEE 93-92.

Golden State over *Minnesota by 1
David Lee can match Kevin Love on the boards and the Warriors came into the season
having covered 12 of their last 15 games. Golden State averaged nearly six more
points per game than the Timberwolves during the 2012-13 season.
GOLDEN STATE 102-101.

**PREFERRED
*San Antonio over Phoenix by 4
The Suns are light years away from being in San Antonio's class, but we like them to
stay close and cover the number in this one mainly due to a great scheduling spot. The veteran-laden Spurs return home from a three-game West Coast swing that began
Friday in Los Angeles and finished last night in the high altitude of Denver. If you
recall, the Suns ended the Spurs' 18-game home winning streak when these teams last
met back in late February.
SAN ANTONIO 99-95.

*Oklahoma City over Dallas by 10
Dallas fared extremely well in its last 12 Wednesday games in 2012-13 going 10-2
ATS. This isn't a good spot, however, for the Mavericks. It's their fourth game in five
days and second in back-to-back nights having just hosted the Lakers. Meanwhile, the
Thunder have been idle since Sunday. The Mavericks lack a defensive stopper facing
Kevin Durant.
OKLAHOMA CITY 105-95.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Fight For The Troops: Kennedy vs. Natal
by Mark Kern

UFC Fight Night 31 Fight For The Troops 3

Kennedy vs. Natal

Wednesday, November 6 – 9:00 p.m. ET
Fort Campbell, Kentucky
Tim Kennedy (16-4) vs. Rafael Natal (17-4-1)

Middleweight bout
Line: Kennedy -370, Natal +280
Tim Kennedy looks for his fifth victory in his past six fights as he takes on Rafael Natal at UFC Fight Night 31: Fight For The Troops 3 on Wednesday night.

Kennedy has been impressive as of late, and is coming off a victory over Roger Gracie at UFC 162 on July 6. That was his first career match in the UFC, after much success in Strikeforce. The Iraqi War veteran is a tough fighter, and has never been submitted in a match. In fact, of his four career losses, three have come by way of a judge’s decision. He will be going up against Rafael Natal, who has also been fighting very well as of late, going 5-1 in his past six bouts, including three in a row. Natal is in terrific shape and has won his last two matches by way of unanimous decision, with his win over Tor Troeng coming just two months ago on Sept. 4. While he is rapidly improving his fighting, this will be a tough match for Natal.

KENNEDY is going to have the crowd behind him, and should win this match in dominating fashion.

While Kennedy has never lost a fight by way of submission, this is his most effective way to win a fight. Of his 16 career victories, six have come by submitting an opponent. He has shown a complete fighting arsenal though, winning seven matches by knockout and three by way of decision. Against Trevor Smith on Jan. 12, Kennedy pulled off an impressive guillotine choke in the third round to get the victory. The 34-year-old is very effective with his punches, landing 2.83 strikes per minute. He will not likely attempt as many strikes as Natal, but he is more accurate, connecting on 51% of his attempts compared to 49% for Natal. Kennedy also defends strikes at a 66% clip, which is slightly better than his opponent's 64% striking defense. This match is very close on nearly every key statistic, and will come down to which fighter is able to execute his game plan. For Natal, he will be looking to keep Kennedy at bay, and try to wear him out.

Like Kennedy, Natal also has eight wins on his resume by submission, while winning six by decision and three by way of knockout. Any time you put the fight in the hands of judges, it can make it be very difficult. However, Natal has had a lot of success with winning matches by decision, and it is because of his great cardio and solid takedown game. "Sapo" (which means "frog") Natal has shown off his takedown ability, defeating Sean Spencer with an arm-triangle choke on Jan. 26, the first of what will be four fights this calendar year. He has a takedown accuracy of 41%, compared to just 36% for Kennedy, and also defends takedowns at a 78% clip, which is also slightly better than his opponent's 77% mark. Natal is considered to be a major underdog in this fight, in large part because he has not fought in a match as highly publicized as this. At just 30 years old, he still has a lot of potential in his career, and this fight could go a long way in propelling him into contention.

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The Factsman

Wednesday CFB Video Pick
Ball State-21

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Todays Best Bets

3* - [105] Central Michigan +20.5 -110 vs Ball State

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Fight For The Troops: Carmouche vs. Davis
by Mark Kern

UFC Fight Night 31 Fight For The Troops 3

Carmouche vs. Davis

Wednesday, November 6 – 8:30 p.m. ET
Fort Campbell, Kentucky
Liz Carmouche (8-3) vs. Alexis Davis (14-5)

Women's bantamweight bout
Line: Carmouche -240, Davis +180
Two top contenders in the women’s bantamweight division square off at UFC Fight for the Troops 3 on Wednesday night as Liz Carmouche takes on Alexis Davis in a battle of very skilled fighters.

After losing three straight matches, Carmouche bounced back at UFC on FOX 8 on July 27 by knocking out Jessica Andrade in the second round. Carmouche is one of the most famous women fighters in MMA, having fought against Ronda Rousey at UFC 157 in the first ever women’s match in UFC history. She is a very strong fighter who is at her best when she is able to take the match to the ground and start throwing punches. She will need to use that strength to her advantage, as she is going up against a very formidable opponent in Alexis Davis. While Carmouche is looking to deliver the knockout, Davis is in great physical shape, with the ability to submit her opponent in dominating fashion. In her first ever UFC match against Rosi Sexton on June 15, Davis won by way of decision.

While Carmouche is the more known fighter, the underdog DAVIS is very tough, and she will prove that by getting the victory.

Of Davis' 14 carries victories, seven have come by way of submission. She also has five victories by way of decision, with just two wins by knockout. Despite the lack of knockout power, Davis uses her strikes very well to wear out her opponents. She lands 6.12 strikes per minute, a significant advantage when compared to Carmouche’s 4.4. One thing Davis must make sure she does is utilize her great takedown defense. The Canadian native Davis has the overwhelming advantage in takedown defense with a percentage of 67% compared to Carmouche’s 43%, but her takedown accuracy (17%) is nowhere near as effective as Carmouche (42%). If the 29-year-old Davis is able to dictate the fight and use her cardio advantage, she should be in a great position to pull off the upset. However, Carmouche, who has the same 5-foot-6, 135-pound build as Davis is fighter that will not back down.

Five of Carmouche’s eight victories have come by way of knockout, with two submission wins and just one coming by decision. "Girlrilla" has gone up against the very best in the sport, and will definitely bring her A-game into this fight. She is outstanding with her takedown abilities, averaging 2.63 takedowns per fight compared to just 0.38 for Davis. A Lafayette, LA native who fights out of San Diego, the 29-year-old Carmouche is a very calculated fighter, who never wastes an opportunity to strike. With her five knockout wins, she has shown the ability to land the devastating punch, and will try to get Davis to turn the fight into a brawl. Both of these fighters have a great opportunity to move up the rankings, so expect a close and entertaining fight on Wednesday night.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

NHL

Hot teams
-- Penguins won their last four games, allowing five goals. Rangers won three of last four.
-- Blackhawks won three of their last four games.
-- Avalanche won 12 of their first 13 games.
-- Coyotes won five in row, seven of their last eight games. Ducks won five of last six.


Cold teams
-- Winnipeg lost six of its last eight games.
-- Predators lost three of their last five games.

Totals
-- Four of last five Pittsburgh games stayed under the total.
-- Last four Winnipeg-Chicago games went over the total.
-- Last three Nashville games went over the total.
-- Three of last four Phoenix games stayed under the total.

Series records
-- Rangers lost eight of last nine games against Pittsburgh.
-- Jets lost their last five games against Chicago.
-- Avalanche won three of last four games with Nashville.
-- Coyotes won four of last six games with Anaheim.

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NBA

Hot teams
-- Pacers won their first four games, allowing 85.5 ppg.
-- Clippers won their last three games, by 11-9-19 points. Orlando won its first two home games, by 20-21 points.
-- 76ers won three of their first four games.
-- Memphis won first two home games, by 3-7 points.
-- Warriors/Minnesota both won three of their first four games.
-- San Antonio won three of its first four games, winning by 7-6-8. Suns also won three of their first four games.
-- Thunder won two of its first three games, winning only home game by 7 over the Suns. Dallas won three of its first three games.

Cold teams
-- Raptors split their first four games, scoring 95 ppg. Charlotte split its first four games, winning only home game by six points.
-- Bulls lost first two road games, by 3-12 points.
-- Wizards are 0-3 this year, lost nine in row going back to last year.
-- Celtics lost their first four games, by 7-10-7-6 points. Utah lost its first four games, by 3-3-11-16 points.
-- Pelicans are 1-3 so far, with losses by 5-10-6 points.
-- Cavaliers lost first two road games, by 6-15 points. Bucks lost two of first three games, with both losses by 7 points.

Series records
-- Raptors lost last five visits to Charlotte, by 6-13-4-1-6 points; dogs covered six of last eight series games.
-- Pacers won three of their last four games with Chicago.
-- Clippers lost seven of last nine vs Magic, but won last two in Orlando
-- 76ers won eight of last ten games against Washington.
-- Celtics won last five games vs Utah, which lost its last five visits to Beantown, by 9-19-24-12-5 points.
-- Pelicans lost seven of last nine games with Memphis.
-- Bucks won nine of last eleven games with Cleveland.
-- Warriors won their last six games with Minnesota.
-- Spurs won nine of last eleven games with Phoenix.
-- Thunder won its last six games with Dallas, which lost its last four visits to Oklahoma City by 2-4-6-21 points. .

Totals
-- Raptors' last four visits to Charlotte went over the total.
-- Under is 8-3 in last eleven Chicago-Indiana games.
-- All four Clipper games went over the total.
-- Five of last six Philly-Wizard games stayed under total.
-- Three of four Boston games stayed under the total.
-- Last four Memphis-New Orleans games went over total.
-- Over is 8-3 in last eleven Milwaukee-Cleveland games; Cavaliers' four games this season all stayed under.
-- Under is 13-3 in last sixteen Golden State-Minnesota games.
-- Over is 13-5 in last eighteen Phoenix-San Antonio games.
-- First four Dallas games went over the total.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Hockey Crusher
Phoenix Coyotes +144 over Anaheim Ducks
(System Record: 22-0, won last 6 games)
Overall Record: 22-5

Basketball Crusher
Chicago Bulls +2.5 over Indiana Pacers
(System Record: 5-1, lost last 2 games)
Overall Record: 5-6-1

Soccer Crusher
Gremio + Paranaense OVER 2
This match is happening in Brazil
(System Record: 478-17, won last game)
Overall Record: 478-412-69

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Cappers Access

Ball St -20.5
Bulls +2.5
Thunder -8.5

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Free Selection from Arthur Ralph Sports

Our Free Plays are 1121-849 (57% ) over the last 5 1/2 years !

Free winner WED Clippers - 7

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Gamblers Data

Free Plays Wednesday

Penguins - 138

Ducks -165