11-12-13

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J Clifton
TOLEDO - 3 1/2
OHIO + 10
TOLEDO UNDER 54
OHIO UNDER 49 1/2

NBA:
LAKERS +3
DALLAS -5
DETROIT +9

NCAAB:
MICHIGAN STATE -3
KANSAS +5
FLORIDA +6
LSU +5

[Can'tPickAWinner]

bookiemonsters
174-125-3 run
9-1 last 10 plays
POD NHL Kings over 5

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Hockey Crusher
Colorado Avalanche -135 over Carolina Hurricanes
(System Record: 24-0, lost last 2 games)
Overall Record: 24-9

Basketball Crusher
New Orleans Pelicans + Los Angeles Lakers OVER 199
(System Record: 6-2, lost last game)
Overall Record: 6-11-1

Soccer Crusher
Bragantino + Icasa UNDER 2.5
This match is happening in Brazil
(System Record: 479-17, won last game and a push)
Overall Record: 479-415-71

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Gamblers Data

Free Plays Tuesday

Avalanche -150

Rangers -170

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Free Selection from Arthur Ralph Sports

Our Free Plays are 1126-851 (57% ) over the last 5 1/2 years College FB 50-32 this yr, NFL 32-20:

Free winner TUES Evansville -3

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WINNING POINTS

COLLEGE BASKETBALL

St. Mary’s* over Akron by 9

LSU over Massachusetts* by 2

Virginia Tech* over West Virginia by 2

**PREFERRED
Baylor* over South Carolina by 20
Home head coach Bryce Drew to visiting boss Frank Martin: ‘Say, I remember you
from when you coached Kansas State and made me/us look bad a few times. Looks
like you have a lot of young guys who will be seeing their first serious action for you,
and they will be afraid to make mistakes and incur your wrath and death stare. We
have talented athletes who can produce and put more pressure on them to keep up.’
BAYLOR, 77-57.

Cincinnati* over North Carolina State by 10
It's the most athletic team I've had in terms of recovery speed, shot blocking, and ability to switch,” says UC head coach Mick Cronin, who’ll be looking to play without a
center and have three forwards on his front line. Not good news for NC State, who
lost five of last season’s top six scorers to graduation or the NBA, and whose 7’1” center Vandenberg will be out a while with an injury.
CINCINNATI, 69-59.

Vanderbilt* over Georgia State by 14

Pittsburgh* over Fresno State by 21

Louisville* over Hofstra by 38
If this was a fight, then it would be stopped before it started.
LOUISVILLE, 75-37.

College of Charleston* over NC-Charlotte by 7
New main board team! C of C is now in the Colonial Athletic Association, having
moved from the “Added Board” Southern Conference. Drawing Louisville a few days
ago was a nice workout for them.
COLLEGE OF CHARLESTON, 71-64.

Syracuse* over Fordham by 14
Fordham will try to confound the Orange with a four-guard lineup that protects the
ball. The world has been waiting (exaggeration, there) for head coach Tom Pecora to
show something, anything with this program after they overpaid to have him lead it
nowhere.
SYRACUSE, 69-55.

Kentucky over Michigan State by 7
Izzo’s Spartan squads often compete very well in these early games vs. opponents that are highly ranked.
KENTUCKY, 71-64.

Drexel over Illinois State* by 2
On the surface, Drexel, coming from Los Angeles and stopping by Normal, IL, seems
to be on a not so magical mystery tour. But Illinois State has lost their best big man,
best guard, saw three guys transfer out, and kicked another off the team. Lots of new
kids.
DREXEL, 59-57.

Bradley* over Central Michigan by 9
Home guard Walt Lemon, Jr. and pals will try to make it a sour night for a visitor with
10 underclassmen among its 13 on scholarship.
BRADLEY, 66-57.

Texas* over South Alabama by 18
Rival Big 12 coach about the Longhorns: “Texas has a couple of guys, you stand
behind them you can’t see us.”
TEXAS, 68-50.

Ohio State* over Ohio by 19

Xavier* over Tennessee by 3

Wisconsin* over Florida by 6
Style-and-venue contrast for the visiting Gators, who struggle in the half-court and
will resort to chucking long-range threes that the Badgers will snicker about, rebound,
then grind out an offensive possession that eventually catches Florida messing up on
the defensive end.
WISCONSIN, 59-53.

Missouri* over Southern Illinois by 20

Arizona State* over Miami-OH by 20

Kansas over Duke by 4 (Chicago, IL)

Cal Poly-SLO* over Nevada by 4

UNLV* over Cal-Santa Barbara by 9

Pacific* over Cal-Irvine by 7

UCLA* over Oakland by 15

USC* over Cal-Northridge by 9

Santa Clara* over San Jose State by 6

Hawaii* over New Mexico State by 3

[Can'tPickAWinner]

See spot. See spot bet: This week's best spot bet opportunities
by Jason Logan

Spot bets are classic handicapping practices that have proven profitable no matter what sport you’re betting. Whether it’s a team looking past this week’s opponent, one coming off a hard-fought victory, or a rough patch of schedule, bettors can find value picking their spots.

Lookahead spot

Two weeks ago, Sunday’s showdown with the Green Bay Packers looked like another loss on the G-Men’s resume. Not only has New York turned it around with two straight wins, but the Giants catch a break with Aaron Rodgers still mending a broken collarbone. However, don’t go writing off the Cheese Heads just yet.

New York has a massive divisional matchup with the Dallas Cowboys in Week 12, looking to get back in the NFC East hunt. Looking past the Packers to the date with Dallas could be dooming for the Giants. Eli Manning and the offense is still a mess, turning the ball over three times in a close win over Oakland. Books are discounting Green Bay with third-stringer Scott Tolzien under center, setting New York as big as 6-point favorites.

Letdown spot

Vanderbilt is rolling high in Week 12 following a win over the Florida Gators Saturday. The Commodores forced four turnovers and snapped a 22-game losing slide to Florida, winning 34-17 as 12-point road underdogs in Gainesville. All that, despite being out-gained 344-183, including just 57 yards passing Saturday.

Vanderbilt hosts Kentucky this weekend and oddsmakers have installed the Commodores as 12.5-point favorites, taking on the 2-7 Wildcats. Kentucky was rolled by Missouri last weekend but has shown an improved offense, out-passing the Tigers 235- 203 Saturday. Vandy has been the betting favorite three times this season and managed to cover just once.

Schedule spot

The Detroit Pistons pack their sunglasses for a four-game road swing on the West Coast this week, starting in Portland Monday night. The Pistons are on an 18-game road losing streak to Western Conference opponents with their last win in a Western arena coming in Sacramento Kings on March. 14 2012. Detroit is just 6-11-1 ATS in those games.

Following Monday’s opener in the Rose Garden, the Pistons visit Golden State, Sacramento, and Los Angeles Lakers. Detroit has dropped back-to-back games against the NBA elite, losing to Oklahoma City and Indiana at home, failing to cover in both outings.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Bucks at Heat What bettors need to know

Milwaukee Bucks at Miami Heat (Off, Off)

The defending champion Miami Heat are having a tough time closing out victories, a trend they'll try to end when they host the Milwaukee Bucks on Tuesday. Miami has lost three of its first seven games - by a combined six points - and are coming off a 111-110 loss to Boston. The Heat won three of four meetings last season and have claimed four of the last five.

The Bucks have stumbled out of the gate too often, trailing by 16 and 25 at halftime of their last two road games and falling behind by 18 early in the third quarter of Saturday's 91-83 home loss to Dallas. "I'm tired of playing comeback basketball," Milwaukee coach Larry Drew told reporters. "I really am. It just takes too much out of you." The Heat have gotten typically strong production from LeBron James (24.4 points, 5.9 rebounds, 8 assists) despite a nagging back problem but have struggled at the defensive end.

TV: 7:30 p.m. ET, FSN Wisconsin (Milwaukee), Sun Sports (Miami)

ABOUT THE BUCKS (2-3): Milwaukee isn't burning it up at the offensive end, but the Bucks are hitting from long range, ranking second in the league at 43.6 percent from 3-point range. Newcomer O.J. Mayo (18.6 points) leads four players averaging double-digit scoring, but the Bucks are short-handed in the post with forward Ersan Ilyasova sidelined with a sore ankle and defensive whiz Larry Sanders out following surgery on his right thumb. Even without Sanders' shot-blocking prowess, the Bucks have been one of the league's better defensive teams, holding opponents to 96 points per game and 44.3 percent shooting.

ABOUT THE HEAT (4-3): Miami has topped 100 points all seven games, the longest streak to start a season in franchise history, and leads the league in shooting at a 51.6 percent clip. James, Dwyane Wade (20.2 points, 4.5 rebounds, 5.2 assists) and Chris Bosh (18.5 points, 6.7 rebounds) are all putting up big numbers. Things haven't been so rosy at the other end, though, as the Heat suffered a defensive lapse in the second half against Boston, allowing the Celtics to shoot 61.9 percent and giving up a game-winning 3-pointer by Jeff Green at the buzzer.

TRENDS:

* Under is 5-0-2 in the last seven meetings.
* Favorite is 5-1 ATS in the last six meetings.
* Under is 9-2-1 in the last 12 meetings in Miami.
* Heat are 13-3 ATS in their last 16 games following a S.U. loss.

BUZZER BEATERS:

1. Wade needs four blocks to tie Dennis Johnson (675) for the most in NBA history by a guard 6-foot-4 or shorter.

2. Bucks F Carlos Delfino announced on his personal website Sunday that his foot injury will require additional surgery and he is likely to miss the entire season.

3. James has scored in double figures in 502 consecutive games, including all 224 contests he has played for the Heat.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Toledo hosts streaking Buffalo Tuesday evening
by Freddy Wander

Kickoff: Tuesday, 7:30 p.m. ET
Line: Toledo -4

Buffalo attempts to go 6-0 in the Mid-American Conference on Tuesday night with a visit to Toledo, which is trying to keep pace with Ball State and Northern Illinois in the West division of the conference.

The Bulls are coming off a big 30-3 win over Ohio last week and are winners of their past seven games, both SU and ATS, after starting the season 0-2. They have absolutely dominated the MAC this season, winning each of their five games by at least 20 points. Last week they were only 4.5-point favorites at home against the Bobcats, but their 252 rushing yards and solid defense shut them down. The Rockets have also had a very successful season in the MAC, going 4-1 SU and ATS up to this point. Their only defeat in conference came at the hands of 9-1 Ball State by a score of 31-24. Toledo defeated Eastern Michigan 55-16 in its most recent game thanks to an impressive 729 yards of offense. Since 1992, these two programs have met only four times, with Toledo having a 3-1 record SU, but going only 1-3 ATS. In last season’s matchup, Toledo won 25-20 on the road as 7-point favorites thanks to 241 rushing yards. Both teams committed two turnovers in the game and the overall offensive numbers were close (Toledo 412 total yards, Buffalo 372 total yards). The Over is 2-1 in the past three matchups, but the Under has gone 12-3 in the Rockets’ past 15 games. Although Buffalo has done very well this season, it is a dreadful 3-16 SU in its past 19 away games.

The Bulls have been great in conference this season and should give a lot of credit to QB Joe Licata (1,738 yards, 16 TD, 5 INT) for their success. Licata has nine touchdowns to only one interception in conference play, but has averaged only 193.8 passing YPG. In Buffalo’s victory over Ohio, Licata was 13-for-22 (59.1%) for 169 yards and two touchdowns (one interception). His ability to not turn the ball over has been a major factor in the team’s 7-game winning streak. While Licata deserves much of the credit this season, the Bulls would not be doing this well without the performance from HB Branden Oliver, who has 1,123 rushing yards (5.2 YPC) with 11 touchdowns this season. He has really been a workhorse over the past three games, averaging 36 attempts per game and gaining an average of 216.7 YPG on the ground. WR Alex Neutz has impressed at receiver this season with 707 yards on 43 catches (16.4 avg.) and has added nine touchdowns. He has caught a touchdown in 8-of-9 games this season. LB Khalil Mack (59 tackles, 7.5 sacks, 3 INT, 2 TD) could be an early pick in next year’s NFL draft, but for now he is helping the Bulls hold opponents to 20.7 PPG and 363.9 YPG.

Toledo has averaged 445.6 yards of offense per game this season, which includes 238.9 YPG rushing (15th in nation). HB David Fluellen (1,067 yards, 10 TD) has been the Rockets' top option on the ground, but missed his previous game with a leg injury. Early reports look promising that Fluellen will be able to play against Toledo on Tuesday. If he is not able to go, the combo of HBs Kareem Hunt (486 rush yards, 5 TD) and Damion Jones-Moore (200 rush yards, 4 TD) will be expected to carry the offense. Hunt has three straight games with 110+ yards and at least one touchdown. QB Terrance Owens (1,609 passing yards, 11 TD, 6 INT) has performed extremely well in the past two games with a combined 505 passing yards and six touchdowns with 0 INT. WRs Bernard Reedy (587 rec. yards, 4 TD) and Alonzo Russell (515 rec. yards, 5 TD) have accounted for 59.2% of the passing game this year. DE Jayrone Elliot has been spectacular this season, recording 56 tackles and seven sacks. Elliot and the rest of the Rockets’ defense has allowed 26.2 PPG and 394.4 YPG this year.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

StatFox Super Situations™ - FoxSheets

CFB BUFFALO at TOLEDO
Play On - A road team vs. the money line (BUFFALO) after 3 or more consecutive wins against the spread, good team, winning 60-80% or more of their games on the season
74-47 over the last 5 seasons. ( 61.2% 0.0 units )
9-5 this year. ( 64.3% 0.0 units )

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StatFox Super Situations™ - FoxSheets

NBA WASHINGTON at DALLAS
Play On - Road teams (WASHINGTON) an excellent offensive team (>=102 PPG) against a horrible defensive team (>=102 PPG), after scoring 100 points or more 3 straight games
63-29 over the last 5 seasons. ( 68.5% 31.1 units )
1-0 this year. ( 100.0% 1.0 units )

NBA WASHINGTON at DALLAS
Play Against - Any team vs the money line (DALLAS) terrible defensive team - allowing 103+ points/game on the season against opponent after a close loss by 3 points or less
70-34 over the last 5 seasons. ( 67.3% 33.1 units )
0-2 this year. ( 0.0% -2.4 units )

NBA WASHINGTON at DALLAS
Play Under - Home teams where the first half total is greater than 100 after going under the total by more than 18 points in their previous game against opponent after going over the total by 24 or more points total in their last three games
44-17 over the last 5 seasons. ( 72.1% 25.3 units )
1-0 this year. ( 100.0% 1.0 units )

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WINNING POINTS

PRO BASKETBALL
*Miami over Milwaukee by 13
The Heat have started slow but should be back in gear having been idle for the past
two days, while the Bucks' revamped backcourt had been missing their two top point
guards, Brandon Knight and Luke Ridnour. Big man Larry Sanders has been struggling
in Milwaukee's new offense.
MIAMI 99-86.

**PREFERRED
*Dallas over Washington by 16
This is a key matchup for the Mavericks as it's their only home game during a sixgame
stretch. The Wizards ranked last in defense going into last weekend. The
Nuggets have the veteran shooters to take advantage with Dirk Nowitzki, Monta Ellis
and Vince Carter off the bench.
DALLAS 111-95.

*Golden State over Detroit by 6
This marks Detroit's first time playing in the second of back to back games. The
Pistons covered the past three times in this spot last season. The Warriors still aren't
playing any defense and their reserves are below average, but Klay Thompson has been red-hot with his long range shooting.
GOLDEN STATE 114-108.

*Los Angeles Lakers over New Orleans by 5
The teams just met five days ago. Pau Gasol has been holding up and playing well, a
good sign for the Lakers. New Orleans lost both meetings to the Lakers last season on
the road, yet went 2-0 ATS.
LA LAKERS 100-95.

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StatFox Super Situations™ - FoxSheets

NHL LOS ANGELES at BUFFALO
Play Against - Any team against the money line (BUFFALO) after allowing 6 goals or more against opponent after a blowout win by 4 goals or more
39-10 over the last 5 seasons. ( 79.6% 29.6 units )
0-1 this year. ( 0.0% -1.0 units )

NHL ANAHEIM at FLORIDA
Play Against - Road Favorites against the money line (ANAHEIM) after allowing 2 goals or less in 4 straight games against opponent after allowing 4 goals or more
94-63 since 1997. ( 59.9% 66.7 units )

NHL ANAHEIM at FLORIDA
Play Against - Road Favorites against the money line (ANAHEIM) after allowing 2 goals or less in 4 straight games against opponent after allowing 3 goals or more 2 straight games
88-57 since 1997. ( 60.7% 59.3 units )
2-0 this year. ( 100.0% 2.5 units )

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StatFox Super Situations™ - FoxSheets

CBB EVANSVILLE at IUPUI
Play On - A home team (IUPUI) first 5 games of the season, after closing out last season poorly with 8+ losses in last 10 games, team that had a terrible record last season (<=20%) playing a team had a winning record last year
29-8 since 1997. ( 78.4% 20.2 units )
1-2 this year. ( 33.3% -1.2 units )

CBB LSU at MASSACHUSETTS
Play Against - A home team vs. the money line (MASSACHUSETTS) after a game where a team made 50% of their 3 point shots or better
514-745 over the last 5 seasons. ( 40.8% -6.3 units )

CBB HOFSTRA at LOUISVILLE
Play On - Favorites of 11 or more points vs. the first half line (LOUISVILLE) after a game committing 15+ less turnovers than opponents
34-11 since 1997. ( 75.6% 21.9 units )

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Paul Leiner

100* Over 201.5 - Pistons/Warriors
100* Florida +6
50* UMass -4