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Sunday's NFL Week 11 betting cheat sheet: Early action
New York Jets at Buffalo Bills (+1, 41)
Geno Smith is having an up and down rookie season but played one of his best games against Buffalo in Week 3, when he passed for a season-high 331 yards to go along with two touchdowns in a 27-20 triumph. New York is not asking much of Smith, who is enjoying the luxury of a rushing offense that produces an average of 129 yards, and he attempted a season-low 19 passes in the win over the Saints.
Buffalo is averaging 13.3 points during its three-game slide and just barely scratched out one touchdown in a 23-10 loss at Pittsburgh last week when Manuel found Chris Cragg with three seconds left. Manuel could have less help this week with wide receivers Stevie Johnson (groin) and Robert Woods (ankle) each sitting out Wednesday’s practice.
LINE: Opened as a pick and has been bet up to Buffalo +1. The total is steady at 41.
WEATHER: There is a 64 percent chance of rain and wind blowing across the field from the south at 16 mph.
COVERS POWER RANKINGS: New York (+1.5) - Buffalo (+5.0) + home field (-3.0) = Jets -0.5
TRENDS:
* Jets are 1-4 ATS in their last five games vs. teams with winning records.
* Bills are 5-1 ATS in their last six home games.
* Under is 4-1-1 in the last six meetings in Buffalo.
Atlanta Falcons at Tampa Bay Buccaneers (-1, 43.5)
Atlanta has been plagued by turnovers - it's minus-8 in that department - as well as injuries to several standouts on both sides of the ball. The hits continue this week with tight end Tony Gonzalez (toe) missing practice Wednesday and receiver Roddy White (shoulder) and running back Steven Jackson (toe) limited. The Falcons should get linebacker Sean Weatherspoon back this week after missing seven games with a foot injury.
Tampa Bay's offense ranks 31st among 32 teams in total yards and scoring, and the unit took another hit when running back Mike James suffered a season-ending broken ankle. James had proven a viable plan B after losing Doug Martin for the season, and now the workload falls to Brian Leonard and Bobby Rainey to continue the improved ground game that has powered much-improved efforts the past two weeks.
LINE: Atlanta has jumped from a pick to +1. The total is up one from a 42.5-point opener.
WEATHER: Temperatures will be in the low-80s with a 22 percent chance of showers.
COVERS POWER RANKINGS: Atlanta (+4.5) - Tampa Bay (+6.0) + home field (-3.0) = Buccaneers -1.5
TRENDS:
* Falcons are 14-3 ATS in their last 17 games after scoring fewer than 15 points in their previous contest.
* Buccaneers are 11-28-1 ATS in their last 40 home games.
* Favorite is 4-1-1 ATS in the last six meetings.
Detroit Lions at Pittsburgh Steelers (+1, 47)
Detroit wide receiver Calvin Johnson increased his career touchdown reception total to 63, overtaking Herman Moore for the top spot on the franchise list. Johnson and quarterback Matthew Stafford have formed a dangerous combination, with the former leading the league in average receiving yards (113.0) and tied for second in TD catches (nine) and the latter fourth in both yards (2,836) and scoring passes (19).
Pittsburgh will need its defense to continue its strong play to keep the Lions from notching their third straight win. The Steelers have allowed an average of 201.3 passing yards, the fourth-best mark in the NFL, and held Buffalo to 227 total yards last week. Pittsburgh's running game has improved of late, as the team has eclipsed the 100-yard plateau in three of the last four games.
LINE: Detroit has held steady as a 1-point fave, with the total currently 47.
WEATHER: There is a 63 percent chance of rain with wind blowing toward the N endzone at 14 mph.
COVERS POWER RANKINGS: Detroit (-3.0) + Pittsburgh (+3.5) - home field (-3.0) = Lions -3.5
TRENDS:
* Lions are 4-1-1 ATS in their last six road games vs. teams with losing home records.
* Steelers are 4-9 ATS in their last 13 games.
* Over is 4-0 in the last four meetings.
Washington Redskins at Philadelphia Eagles (-4.5, 53)
One year after producing two of the NFL’s top offensive rookies in Griffin and running back Alfred Morris, the Redskins have struck gold again with tight end Jordan Reed, who leads all NFL rookies with 44 catches. Morris is having a fine sophomore campaign, as well, with 448 yards and two touchdowns in his last four games. Washington’s punt return unit ranks 30th in the NFL in yards per return (6.1).
Philadelphia quarterback Nick Foles has 10 touchdown passes over the last two games, five of which have gone to Riley Cooper, who has eight catches for 241 yards during that stretch. While the Eagles’ offense continues to generate the headlines, their defense has allowed 21 points or less in six straight games. Philadelphia is tied with Dallas for first place in the NFC East.
LINE: The Eagles opened as low as -3 but have been bet up to -4.5. The total is up from 51 to 53.
WEATHER: There's a 23 percent chance of showers with temperatures in the mid-60s.
COVERS POWER RANKINGS: Washington (+3.5) + Philadelphia (-1.0) + home field (-3.0) = Eagles -7.5
TRENDS:
* Redskins are 3-7 ATS in their last 10 games.
* Eagles are 6-15-1 ATS in their last 22 games on grass.
* Road team is 7-2 ATS in the last nine meetings.
Baltimore Ravens at Chicago Bears (-2.5, 44)
Joe Flacco threw a pair of touchdown passes as Baltimore pulled out a critical 20-17 overtime win last week, but the defending Super Bowl champs haven't won two straight games since mid-September. The schedule is favorable, however, as Baltimore plays three straight games at home after its date with Chicago against teams with a combined 10-17 record. Baltimore trails Cincinnati by 1 1/2 games in the division and is also behind in the wild-card race.
Bears QB Jay Cutler is out a high ankle sprain and defensive back Charles Tillman is also out with a torn triceps, adding to a long list of sidelined starters. Backup QB Josh McCown has been sharp in his three appearances on the season, completing 60 percent of his passes with four touchdowns and no interceptions. Brandon Marshall continues to be the top target with 14 receptions for 246 yards and three TDs in the last two games.
LINE: Chicago opened -3 but the line has been bet down to -2.5. The total has dropped 2.5 points to 44.
WEATHER: There is a 74 percent chance of rain and wind blowing N across the length of the field at 20 mph.
COVERS POWER RANKINGS: Baltimore (+3.0) + Chicago (-2.5) + home field (-3.0) = Bears -8.5
TRENDS:
* Ravens are 15-5-2 ATS in their last 22 games vs. teams with winning records.
* Bears are 1-9-1 ATS in their last 11 home games.
* Under is 4-0 in the last four meetings.
Cleveland Browns at Cincinnati Bengals (-6, 42)
Coming out of its bye week, Cleveland will match its win total from last season with one more victory. What makes that even more impressive is that the Browns are on their third starting quarterback, Jason Campbell, who has recorded the team’s highest passer ratings of the season in his first two starts. Cleveland can sweep the season series for the first time since 2002 with a win.
Quarterback Andy Dalton has come under fire after throwing a combined six interceptions in the two overtime losses. Despite the setbacks, Cincinnati is still in control of its fate with four of its final six games at home, where it is undefeated this season. Bengals wide receiver A.J. Green, who had seven catches for 51 yards in the first meeting, has five consecutive 100-yard receiving games.
LINE: Cincinnati has held as a 6-point fave, with the total currently 42.
WEATHER: There is a 78 percent chance of thunderstorms with wind blowing across the field at 14 mph.
COVERS POWER RANKINGS: Cleveland (+3.0) + Cincinnati (-3.0) + home field (-3.0) = Bengals -9
TRENDS:
* Browns are 5-1 ATS in their last six November games.
* Bengals are 3-9-2 ATS in their last 14 games vs. the AFC North.
* Underdog is 12-3-1 ATS in the last 16 meetings.
Oakland Raiders at Houston Texans (-9.5, 41.5)
Quarterback Terrelle Pryor's inconsistent campaign continued in the loss to the Giants as he struggled to an 11-for-26 performance with 122 yards and an interception. Pryor, who is listed as questionable with a knee ailment and did not practice Wednesday, has thrown five interceptions with no touchdowns in the last three weeks. Rookie Matt McGloin, who came off the bench in a loss to Philadelphia on Nov. 3, took the first-team snaps in practice.
As its season has fallen on hard times, Houston's roster continues to take a form vastly different than the one many thought could contend in the AFC. Safety Ed Reed, a nine-time Pro Bowler who was expected to be one of the leaders of a standout defense, was released Tuesday after calling out the coaching in the loss to the Cardinals, and star running back Arian Foster was placed on season-ending injured reserve due to nagging back issues.
LINE: The Texans opened -7 and are now -9.5. The total has dropped from 43 to 41.5.
WEATHER: N/A
COVERS POWER RANKINGS: Oakland (+6.0) - Houston (+4.0) + home field (-3.0) = Texans -5
TRENDS:
* Raiders are 6-1-1 ATS in their last eight games vs. the AFC.
* Texans are 0-6 ATS in their last six games following an ATS win.
* Over is 7-3 in Houston's last 10 games.
Arizona Cardinals at Jacksonville Jaguars (+9.5, 41)
Arizona is ranked just 24th in rushing (93.6) and that has meant an over-reliance on quarterback Carson Palmer, who has thrown at least one interception in every game and has 15 overall. Rookie Andre Ellington has shown the ability to juice up the sagging running game with 209 yards over the last two games and an impressive 7.2-yard average. Cornerback Patrick Peterson has a team-leading three interceptions.
Jacksonville’s defense allows 388.9 yards per game and could be without leading tackler Paul Posluszny (88 stops) after the standout middle linebacker suffered a concussion against Tennessee. Making matters worse is that backup LaRoy Reynolds was suspended four games for violating the NFL’s policy on performance-enhancing drugs, which forces the Jaguars to start roster-filler Russell Allen, who last played in the middle in 2009.
LINE: The Jags opened as a 6-point dog but are now +9.5.. The total is up a half-point to 41.
WEATHER: Wind will be blowing diagonally out of the southeast at 10 mph.
COVERS POWER RANKINGS: Arizona (+1.0) - Jacksonville (+8.0) + home field (-3.0) = Cardinals -4
TRENDS:
* Cardinals are 5-1 ATS in their last six games vs. teams with losing records.
* Jaguars are 2-8 ATS in their last 10 games.
* Under is 7-1 in Jacksonville's last eight home games. -
Sunday's NFL Week 11 betting cheat sheet: Late action
San Diego Chargers at Miami Dolphins (+1, 45.5)
San Diego is in the midst of stretch of four out of five on the road and dropped the lone home game last week to the Denver Broncos 28-20. The Chargers fell behind early in that one and never recovered, allowing Peyton Manning to pass for 330 yards and four touchdowns in a scene that is becoming common for a pass defense that ranks near the bottom of the league.
Miami is down two offensive linemen with Jonathan Martin and alleged tormentor Richie Incognito away from the team and that loss was felt in the running game on Monday, when the Dolphins managed a total of two yards on 14 carries. Quarterback Ryan Tannehill was sacked twice on the team’s final possession. The second-year signal caller has taken 37 sacks this season - the most in the NFL.
LINE: Miami is a 1-point dog with the total set at 45.5.
WEATHER: Temperatures will be in the low-80s with wind blowing across the length of the field at 11 mph.
COVERS POWER RANKINGS: San Diego (0) + Miami (+4.0) - home field (-3.0) = Chargers -1
TRENDS:
* Chargers are 5-2-1 ATS in their last eight road games.
* Dolphins are 6-2 ATS in their last eight home games.
* Under is 9-0 in the last nine meetings.
Minnesota Vikings at Seattle Seahawks (-12, 45)
Reigning NFL MVP Adrian Peterson leads the league with nine rushing touchdowns and his 87.3 yards per game on the ground rank third. He rushed for 182 yards and two TDs on 17 carries in a 30-20 loss at Seattle last November. Wide receiver Jerome Simpson, who leads the team with 491 receiving yards, is likely to play despite an arrest on suspicion of drunken driving last weekend.
Seattle, which increased its NFC West lead to 2 1/2 games with a rout at Atlanta last week, is going for its sixth win in a row and its 13th consecutive victory at home. The Seahawks are one of the NFL’s most balanced teams, ranking in the top six in both total defense (289 yards allowed per game) and scoring (26.5 points). Adding returning receiver Percy Harvin to the mix should make the offense even more dangerous.
LINE: Seattle opened as a 13.5-point fave but the line has been bet down to -12. The total is 45.
WEATHER: Temperatures will be in the high-40s with a 42 percent chance of showers.
COVERS POWER RANKINGS: Minnesota (+5.5) + Seattle (-7.0) + home field (-3.0) = Seattle -15.5
TRENDS:
* Vikings are 7-16 ATS in their last 23 games following a SU win.
* Seahawks are 10-3 ATS in their last 13 games vs. NFC opponents.
* Over is 4-0 in the last four meetings in Seattle.
San Francisco 49ers at New Orleans Saints (-3.5, 48)
San Francisco's offense has played at one extreme or the other, topping 30 points in all six wins and being held to single digits in all three losses. Quarterback Colin Kaepernick's receiving corps is getting healthier, as Mario Manningham played last week and Michael Crabtree (Achilles) has returned to practice and is eligible to come off the reserve list.
New Orleans' high-powered offense keeps rolling along despite nagging injuries to star tight end Jimmy Graham. Rookie receiver Kenny Stills has become a key part of the offense with four TD receptions in the past four games. One cause for concern is the defense's recent drop-off in takeaways - after forcing 15 turnovers in the first seven games, the Saints haven't forced any in the past two.
LINE: The Saints opened -3 and are now -3.5, with the total up a half-point to 48.
WEATHER: N/A
COVERS POWER RANKINGS: San Francisco (-5.5) + New Orleans (-6.0) + home field (-3.0) = Saints -3.5
TRENDS:
* 49ers are 7-1 ATS in their last eight road games vs. teams with winning home records.
* Saints are 21-5 ATS in their last 26 home games.
* Over is 4-0-1 in the last five meetings.
Green Bay Packers at New York Giants (-4, 42)
Green Bay was atop its division following a four-game winning streak but quarterback Aaron Rodgers hurt his collarbone in a Monday night showdown against Chicago - the latest and most damaging in a spate of injuries that has ravaged the roster. Backup Seneca Wallace went down in the first quarter of last week's 27-13 home loss to Philadelphia, prompting the NFL debut of Scott Tolzien, who threw for 280 yards with a touchdown and two interceptions.
The biggest reasons for New York's turnaround have been cutting down on turnovers and a revival of a defense that surrendered an average of more than 34 points through the first six games but has permitted a total of 34 in the last three wins. Quarterback Eli Manning was a turnover machine during the season-opening skid, tossing 15 of his 16 interceptions and losing four fumbles, but he has been picked off only once during the current winning streak.
LINE: New York opened as high as -8 but has settled in at -4. The total is currently 42..
WEATHER: Temperatures will be in the high-60s with overcast skies.
COVERS POWER RANKINGS: Green Bay (+4.5) - New York (+1.0) + home field (-3.0) = Giants -6.5
TRENDS:
* Packers are 5-1 ATS in their last six games vs. teams with losing records.
* Giants are 3-13 ATS in their last 16 games in Week 11.
* Over is 5-1 in the last six meetings.
Kansas City Chiefs at Denver Broncos (-7.5, 49)
Despite its perfect record, Kansas City has been the target of criticism for a perceived soft schedule - none of its opponents currently have a winning record - and the fact that four of the last five wins came against teams playing a backup at quarterback. The Chiefs have had a string of close calls but their defense has yet to allow more than 17 points while scoring six defensive touchdowns and ranking sixth in passing yards allowed at 208.3 per game.
Peyton Manning tops the league in passing yards (3,249), touchdowns (33) and passer rating (121.0) while tossing only six interceptions in leading Denver's high-powered offense to a league-high 41.2 points per game. The Broncos were held under 30 points for the first time in last week's 28-20 win at San Diego as Manning threw for 330 yards and four TDs before aggravating a right ankle injury in the waning minutes.
LINE: Denver is currently a 7.5-point fave with the total dipping from 51 to 49.
WEATHER: Temperatures will be in the mid-30s.
COVERS POWER RANKINGS: Kansas City (-4.5) + Denver (-8.0) + home field (-3.0) = Broncos -6.5
TRENDS:
* Chiefs are 2-5 ATS in their last seven games vs. the NFC West.
* Broncos are 7-2 ATS in their last nine November games.
* Over is 12-3-1 in Denver's last 16 games following an ATS win.Comment
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NFL betting: This week's Top 4 key injuries
Fans in Seattle will finally get to see wide receiver Percy Harvin in action this week, but not every team will be so fortunate.
The Atlanta Falcons could be without their top pass-catching option while the Oakland Raiders may be forced to start an undrafted quarterback. Meanwhile, the New England Patriots welcome back one of their most versatile offensive options for a pivotal Monday night tilt.
Here are four of the most notable Week 11 injuries:
Terrelle Pryor, QB, Oakland Raiders (questionable, knee)
Pryor practiced with the Raiders this week but coach Dennis Allen told reporters the second-year quarterback wasn't feeling as well on Friday as he did on Thursday. Oakland reporters are convinced that Pryor will sit this week, leaving the offense in the hands of Matt McGloin. Even if Pryor is declared fit to start, there's no guarantee his knee will hold up for the entire game. Like Tolzien, McGloin will likely have a negative impact on Oakland's receivers with the Raiders likely to lean heavily on running back Rashad Jennings.
The Raiders are 9.5-point dogs Sunday afternoon in Houston. The total is set at 41.
Tony Gonzalez, TE, Atlanta Falcons (questionable, toe)
What has already been a difficult season for Matt Ryan could hit a new low if Gonzalez can't go this weekend. The future Hall of Famer is dealing with a toe injury suffered last week and was limited in practice Friday afternoon. He's expected to be a game-time decision, though with just three missed games in 13-plus NFL seasons, if he can tolerate the pain, he'll likely play. Nevertheless, he won't be 100 percent - limiting a pass attack that has seen Julio Jones (foot) lost for the season and Roddy White (ankle/hamstring/shoulder) hampered all year long.
The Falcons are installed as 1-point dogs in Tampa, with the over/under set at 43.5.
Percy Harvin, WR, Seattle Seahawks (probable, hip)
Harvin will likely make his long-awaited Seahawks debut Sunday against Minnesota, though head coach Pete Carroll left a sliver of doubt Friday suggesting the dynamic wide receiver "has a chance to play." Lining up against his former team, Harvin will be especially motivated to get off to an electrifying start after missing the first 10 weeks following offseason hip surgery. Harvin will see a limited snap count in his first game, but should immediately upgrade a Seattle offense reeling from the loss of No. 1 receiver Sidney Rice (torn ACL).
The Seahawks are 12-point faves for Sunday's game against the visiting Vikings. The total is 45.
Shane Vereen, RB, New England Patriots (N/A, wrist)
Vereen is a man without an official injury status, since the Patriots have yet to activate him from the physically-unable-to-perform list. That's expected to be a mere formality, yet it isn't immediately clear how much Vereen will play in his first taste of game action since undergoing wrist surgery in early September. After racking up 159 yards in his only game of the season, the 24-year-old will provide some much-needed big-play ability to New England's beleaguered attack.
The Patriots are listed as one-point dogs for the Monday nighter in Carolina. The total is set at 46.Comment
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NFL weather report: Sunday's forecasts
Find out how weather will impact your NFL bets for Sunday's matchups:
New York Jets at Buffalo Bills (+1, 41)
There is a 64 percent chance of rain in the forecast. Wind will blow across the field at 16 mph.
Atlanta Falcons at Tampa Bay Buccaneers (-1, 43.5)
Temperatures will be in the low-80s with a 22 percent chance of rain. Wind will blow toward the N endzone at 6 mph.
Detroit Lions at Pittsburgh Steelers (+1, 47)
There is a 63 percent chance of rain with wind blowing toward the NE endzone at 13 mph.
Washington Redskins at Philadelphia Eagles (-4.5, 53)
There is a 23 percent chance of rain with wind blowing toward the N endzone at 6 mph.
Baltimore Ravens at Chicago Bears (-2.5, 44)
An 85 percent probability of thunderstorms is in the forecast with wind blowing toward the N endzone at 23 mph.
Cleveland Browns at Cincinnati Bengals (-6, 42)
There is a 78 percent chance of thunderstorms with wind blowing across the field at 13 mph.
Arizona Cardinals at Jacksonville Jaguars (+9.5, 41)
Wind will blow across the field at 11 mph. There is a 21 percent chance of rain in the forecast.
San Diego Chargers at Miami Dolphins (+1, 45.5)
Temperatures will be in the low-80s with wind blowing toward the W endzone at 11 mph.
Minnesota Vikings at Seattle Seahawks (-12, 45)
There is a 41 percent chance of rain with wind blowing toward the N endzone at 10 mph.
Green Bay Packers at New York Giants (-4, 42)
Skies will be overcast with wind blowing toward the N endzone at 6 mph.
Kansas City Chiefs at Denver Broncos (-7.5, 49)
Temperatures will be in the low-40s.Comment
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Where the action is: Sunday's NFL line moves
Week 11 of the NFL schedule features a few matchups where injuries are playing a key part in line moves. We talk to oddsmakers about the action coming in on some of Sunday's matchups and where lines could close come kickoff:
New York Jets at Buffalo Bills - Open: -1, Move: +1
Remember when the Jets were supposed to be horrible? Well, a win over division rivals Buffalo and they could be in the thick of the playoff hunt. The Bills opened as a small home fave, but injuries to some key players has bettors treading lightly.
"The opener saw the Bills as a small fave, but the injury report has been much kinder to the Jets with numerous upgrades to probable on both sides of the ball," says Aron Black of Bet365. "The 'expected to miss' status of Buffalo WR’s Stevie Johnson and Robert Woods, moving the line to the Jets as a small fave. Action is pretty split ATS, but the bulk of SU action is on the Jets as slight dog."
Arizona Cardinals at Jacksonville Jaguars - Open: +6, Move: +9
The Jags may have finally won a game SU and covered their second spread of the season last week at Tennessee, but bettors don't see a trend beginning in either department. The Cards opened as 6-point road faves and sharps and public alike have gotten behind the NFC West squad that has won back-to-back games SU.
"Monday we got sharp play on Cards -6 so moved to -6.5 and Wednesday got another sharp play on Arizona so moved to -7," says Mike Perry, an oddsmaker with Sportsbook.ag. "Heavy majority of action has been on the Cards all week, which caused us on Thursday to move to current number of -9. Sixty-six percent of the cash is backing Arizona."
Oakland Raiders at Houston Texans - Open: -7, Move: -9
Lines for this AFC matchup opened anywhere from -6.5 to -7.5 depending on where you shop. The Raiders are expected to start Matthew McGloin at QB as Terrelle Pryor is doubtful.
"The line move to -9 is down to QB Pryor being out, and the action has gone along with Houston from the start and with moves," Black says. "Oakland action has come back at +9, however the game is one of the quieter action games of the weekend given all the uncertainty due to injuries."
San Diego Chargers at Miami Dolphins - Open: +1, Move: +2.5
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The Chargers come into this one cold, having lost two games in a row both SU and ATS. Despite that, San Diego opened as 1-point road faves at most outlets and with sharps getting in on the action early, oddsmakers don't see the line moving from here on out.
"On Tuesday we got sharp play on Bolts -1, so we moved to the current number of -2.5," Perry says. "Expect us to stay on -2.5 until kickoff. Eighty percent of money is on San Diego."Comment
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Essential betting tidbits for Week 11 of NFL football
We dug up these vital betting tidbits for some of Sunday's NFL action that will help you make the right call before kickoff.
- New York Jets WR Santonio Holmes (hamstring) is expected to return following a five-game absence. They went 2-2 SU with him in the lineup.
- The Buffalo Bills are averaging 13.3 points during its three-game slide. They are also 0-3 ATS during this stretch.
- Tampa Bay is allowing the fifth-fewest yards on the ground in the NFL while surrendering only four rushing touchdowns.
- The Falcons only mustered 18 yards on 18 carries when the two teams met back in Week 7.
- The Detroit Lions are 0-8-1 in Pittsburgh since posting a 31-28 victory in 1955.
- The Steelers will be ready for the Detroit aerial assault. They have allowed an average of 201.3 passing yards, the fourth-best mark in the NFL.
- The Over in the Redskins vs. Eagles is the highest Consensus of the day, with a hair under 70 percent on the Over 52.5.
- The Ravens are 30th in the league in rushing with an average of 73.1 yards a game and Harbaugh said he'll go with the hot hand on Sunday, whether it be starter Ray Rice or his backup Bernard Pierce.
- The Bears are one of the worst teams in the league against the spread, with a record of 2-6-1 ATS heading into Sunday's tilt with the Ravens.
- The underdog is 12-3-1 ATS in the last 16 meetings between AFC North rivals Cleveland Browns and Cincinnati Bengals. The Browns are currently 5.5-point dogs at Cincy Sunday.
- The Houston Texans have lost their last three games by a combined seven points.
- Bengals WR A.J. Green, who had seven catches for 51 yards in the first meeting, has five consecutive 100-yard receiving games.
- Matt McGloin will start for the Oakland Raiders Sunday. McGloin went 7-of-15 for 87 yards in relief duty against the Philadelphia Eagles back on NOv. 3.
- Jacksonville has been outscored 89-11 in its three home games and are +9.5 with the Cardinals visiting Sunday.
- Cardinals QB Carson Palmer has completed better than 60 percent of his passes in five straight games.
- No team is undergoing more off-field drama than the Miami Dolphins and now Richie Incognito reportedly filed a grievance against Miami stemming from his suspension in relation to the Jonathan Martin case.
- The Minnesota Vikings have lost all four road games this season, but are 2-2 ATS.
- Seahawks WR Percy Harvin is expected to make his debut for the Seahawks to face his old team, the Minnesota Vikings, Sunday.
- The Saints have won and covered the spread in 14 straight home games with head coach Sean Payton on the sidelines (13 regular season games).
- The Over is 5-1 in the last six meetings between the Packers and Giants. Sunday afternoon's total is currently 41.
- Kansas City has surrendered the sixth-fewest passing yards in the NFL (1,875) while limiting the opposition to nine touchdowns and snagging 12 interceptions.
- The dog is 6-1 ATS in the last seven meetings between the Chiefs and Broncos. Sunday's dog is Kansas City (+7.5)Comment
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NFL Prop Shop: Week 11's best player prop bets
By SEAN MURPHY
Covers Expert Sean Murphy opens the doors of the NFL Prop Shop in Week 11, giving you his favorite player prop picks for Sunday's action.
Most passing yards
Joe Flacco (Baltimore Ravens) vs. Josh McCown (Chicago Bears)
The Bears certainly didn't scale back the offense for veteran backup QB Josh McCown when he started against Green Bay two weeks ago, as he threw the ball 41 times for 272 yards, two touchdowns, and no interceptions in an upset win. I don't expect them to do so this week either, as McCown fills in for Jay Cutler, who remains hobbled with a groin injury.
It's no secret that Ravens QB Joe Flacco's production has taken a major hit this season, and perhaps reached a new low last Sunday, as he threw for only 140 yards in a narrow win over the Bengals. Against an opportunistic, ball-hawking Bears secondary, I don't expect to see Flacco sling it all over the field on Sunday afternoon.
Take: McCown
Carson Palmer (Arizona Cardinals) vs. Chad Henne (Jacksonville Jaguars)
Yes, the Jaguars finally picked up their first win of the season last week, and scored 29 points in doing so, but that victory had little to do with the performance of QB Chad Henne. He threw for only 180 yards, no touchdowns, and two interceptions and won't find the going much easier against an underrated Cardinals defense this Sunday. With WR Justin Blackmon suspended, the Jags possess the definition of a pedestrian passing attack.
Few are paying much attention, but the Cardinals are playing winning football and QB Carson Palmer is steadily improving. Palmer has completed better than 60% of his passes in five straight games after topping that number only once in the first four contests this year. He's recorded passer ratings of 116 and 93.4 over the last two games and should be able to pick up where he left off against a weary Jaguars defense on Sunday.
Take: Palmer
Most rushing yards
Reggie Bush (Detroit Lions) vs. Le'Veon Bell (Pittsburgh Steelers)
Calvin Johnson may be the start of the Lions offense, but Reggie Bush is the engine that makes it go. He's seen his rushing yardage increase in each of the last three games, culminating with last week's 105-yards effort against the Bears. The Steelers defense doesn't come close to resembling a steel curtain these days, allowing over 127 rush yards per game on 4.2 yards per rush. Expect Bush to shine in this matchup.
Steelers rookie RB Le'Veon Bell has been thrust into a difficult situation this year, with the Pittsburgh offense struggling as a whole. Bell has topped out at 93 rushing yards, and that performance came back in Week 7. Since then, he's gained only 155 yards on 51 carries over the last three weeks. I'm not anticipating a breakout effort against the Lions.
Take: Bush
Most pass receptions
Harry Douglas (Atlanta Falcons) vs. Vincent Jackson (Tampa Bay Buccaneers)
Bucs WR Vincent Jackson was held to only three catches in Monday night's win over the Dolphins, but did lead the team with eight pass targets. He's been held to just 10 catches in the last three games since hauling in 10 catches in Tampa Bay's Week 7 loss to the same Falcons he'll face on Sunday. I'm expecting a similarly busy afternoon for the Bucs go-to guy on Sunday.
Harry Douglas has certainly benefited from all of the injuries on the Falcons offense, making 29 catches over the last four games. With that being said, this is still lagging passing attack, and one that will go up against a Bucs secondary that has played some of its best football of the season over the last couple of weeks. Tampa will undoubtedly key on Douglas on Sunday, as he's essentially the best of what's left as far as Falcons receivers go right now.
Take: JacksonComment
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Saints bring 14-game ATS streak into Sunday's game
When it comes to sure things, the New Orleans Saints at home with Sean Payton as head coach is as close as it gets in the NFL.
The Saints have incredibly won and covered the spread in 14 straight home games with Payton patrolling the sidelines, with 13 of those coming in the regular season. New Orleans outscored teams by an average of 16.8 points per game in those13 regular season contests.
ESPN Stats & Info also Tweeted that Drew Brees has multiple TD passes in 21 straight home games, the longest streak in NFL history.
The Saints are 5-0 straight up and against the number at home this season heading into Sunday's game when they host the San Francisco 49ers as 3.5-point favorites.
Betonline oddsmaker Dave Mason Tweeted Friday afternoon that 92 percent of the action of the action there is on the Saints.Comment
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Redskins at Eagles: What bettors need to know
Washington Redskins at Philadelphia Eagles (-4.5, 53)
Nick Foles is quietly having an historic season for the Philadelphia Eagles, who are starting to sneak up on the NFC playoff race. Foles and the Eagles look to make some more noise Sunday when they host the Washington Redskins in a Week 1 rematch. Foles was taken 86 spots after Washington’s Robert Griffin III in last year’s draft, but it’s the Philadelphia quarterback who enters this matchup with 16 touchdowns and no interceptions on the season.
Griffin, meanwhile, had nine touchdowns and nine interceptions on the year before throwing three TDs and no picks in last week’s 34-27 loss to Minnesota. Griffin’s season high for passing yards remains his 329-yard effort against the Eagles in the opener, but Washington lost that game 33-27 as its defense allowed 443 total yards, including 184 rushing yards by LeSean McCoy. Fueled by that victory, Philadelphia is 5-1 on the road this season but 0-4 at home – part of a 10-game home losing streak that dates back to September 2012 – although Eagles coach Chip Kelly said, “I do think we have an advantage. We love playing at home. Our fans are outstanding. They deserve it.”
TV: 1 p.m. ET, Fox.
LINE: The Eagles opened -3.5 and are now -4.5. The total opened 52.5 and is up to 53.
WEATHER: There is a 23 percent chance of rain with wind blowing toward the N endzone at 6 mph.
ABOUT THE REDSKINS (3-6): One year after producing two of the NFL’s top offensive rookies in Griffin and running back Alfred Morris, the Redskins have struck gold again with tight end Jordan Reed, who leads all NFL rookies with 44 catches. Morris is having a fine sophomore campaign, as well, with 448 yards and two touchdowns in his last four games. Washington’s punt return unit, which ranks 30th in the NFL in yards per return (6.1), will likely give practice squad call-up Nick Williams, a rookie out of Connecticut, a chance to win the job on Sunday.
ABOUT THE EAGLES (5-5): Foles has 10 touchdown passes over the last two games, five of which have gone to Riley Cooper, who has eight catches for 241 yards during that stretch. While the Eagles’ offense continues to generate the headlines, their defense has allowed 21 points or less in six straight games. Philadelphia is tied with Dallas for first place in the NFC East, but the team could be without offensive tackle Jason Peters, linebacker Mychal Kendricks and safety Earl Wolff, all of whom were injured in last week’s 27-13 win at Green Bay.
TRENDS:
* Redskins are 5-1 ATS in their last six meetings in Philadelphia.
* Redskins are 1-6 ATS in their last seven vs. NFC.
* Eagles are 5-20-1 ATS in their last 26 home games.
* Under is 6-0-1 in Eagles last seven games in Week 11.
EXTRA POINTS:
1. Redskins WR Pierre Garcon has at least five catches in every game this season.
2. Sunday will mark the 250th consecutive game for Washington LB London Fletcher.
3. McCoy had rushed for less than 60 yards in four of his previous five games before scampering for 155 against the Packers.Comment
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Chiefs at Broncos: What bettors need to know
Kansas City Chiefs at Denver Broncos (-9.5, 49)
Peyton Manning always seems to be the center of attention and that will again be the case - albeit for a different reason - when the Denver Broncos host the undefeated Kansas City Chiefs on Sunday night in a showdown for first place in the AFC West. Manning's health, and his ailing right ankle in particular, is the No. 1 storyline as the Broncos attempt to hand the Chiefs their first loss in the first of two meetings between the clubs in the next three games.
Manning and interim coach Jack Del Rio insist he will be ready to play despite not practicing Wednesday but his mobility is a huge concern against a defense that leads the league with 36 sacks and has surrendered an NFL-low 12.3 points per game. "We're definitely on high alert in wanting to protect our quarterback," said Del Rio, who is serving as head coach while John Fox recovers from heart valve surgery. The upstart Chiefs are coming off a bye with the knowledge that coach Andy Reid is 13-1 following a week off.
TV: 8:30 p.m. ET, NBC.
LINE: Denver opened -9.5. The total is down to 49 from the opening 51.
WEATHER: Temperatures will be in the high-30s with partly cloudy skies.
ABOUT THE CHIEFS (9-0): Despite its perfect record, Kansas City has been the target of criticism for a perceived soft schedule - none of its opponents currently have a winning record - and the fact that four of the last five wins came against teams playing a backup at quarterback. The Chiefs have had a string of close calls but their defense has yet to allow more than 17 points while scoring six defensive touchdowns and ranking sixth in passing yards allowed at 208.3 per game. Wideout Dwayne Bowe will start despite an arrest earlier in the week for an offense that relies on the efficiency of quarterback Alex Smith and the running of Jamaal Charles, who has 725 yards rushing and 47 receptions.
ABOUT THE BRONCOS (8-1): Manning tops the league in passing yards (3,249), touchdowns (33) and passer rating (121.0) while tossing only six interceptions in leading Denver's high-powered offense to a league-high 41.2 points per game. The Broncos were held under 30 points for the first time in last week's 28-20 win at San Diego as Manning threw for 330 yards and four TDs before aggravating a right ankle injury in the waning minutes. Wideouts Demaryius Thomas, Wes Welker and tight end Julius Thomas each have nine touchdown receptions while running back Knowshon Moreno has been a dual threat with eight rushing scores and 37 catches, including a season-high eight last week.
TRENDS:
* Under is 4-0-1 in the last five meetings.
* Underdog is 6-1 ATS in their last seven meetings.
* Chiefs are 4-0 ATS in their last four road games.
* Over is 17-5-1 in Broncos last 23 vs. AFC.
OVERTIME:
1. Manning is tied with New England's Tom Brady (2007) for the most TD passes (33) through the first nine games of a season.
2. The Chiefs, seeking the first 10-0 start in franchise history, are the first NFL team to open 9-0 after posting the worst record the previous season.
3. Manning is 8-0 against the AFC West since joining Denver and 9-1 in his career versus the Chiefs.Comment
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Tale of the Tape: Kansas City Chiefs at Denver Broncos
There's no mistaking the marquee matchup of the week as the unbeaten Kansas City Chiefs face their toughest test to date - a showdown with Peyton Manning and the Denver Broncos.
Kansas City is the lone remaining undefeated team thanks to a relentless defense and formidable ground game. Manning has the Broncos right behind the Chiefs in the AFC West as he continues his record-breaking pace into the later stages of the season.
Here's the breakdown in our betting tale of the tape:
Offense
Kansas City's amazing start is made even more incredible by the fact that the Chiefs rank a pedestrian 24th in the NFL in total yards per game (317.3). Alex Smith has proven to be a capable quarterback most games, but lacks big-play ability and leads a Kansas City attack that has compiled the fifth-fewest passing yards in the league. The running game has been more effective, ranked 12th overall at 119 yards per game while racking up seven touchdowns.
The Chiefs haven't seen an offense as explosive as the one led by Manning. The Broncos lead the NFL with 3,181 passing yards - a whopping 257 more than the next closest team - and also tops the league in passing touchdowns (33) and total QB rating (120.6) while sitting second in fewest sacks against (13). The success of the passing game has opened things up on the ground, where Denver has recorded 11 scores despite averaging just 105.2 yards per game.
Edge: Denver
Defense
While the Denver offense presents a unique challenge for Kansas City, the Chiefs' defense should have the same impact on the Broncos. Kansas City has surrendered the sixth-fewest passing yards in the NFL (1,875) while limiting the opposition to nine touchdowns and snagging 12 interceptions. The Chiefs have compiled a league-best 36 sacks - 20 from Justin Houston and Tamba Hali - and have given up just two rushing touchdowns through the first 10 games.
If the Broncos struggle en route to a berth in the Super Bowl, it will probably be due to an inconsistent and underperforming defense. Denver has surrendered the third-most passing yards to date, while allowing 16 touchdowns against 13 interceptions. The Broncos have been successful at getting to the quarterback - piling up 26 sacks through 10 games - but have given up nine rushing touchdowns despite limiting foes to just 87 yards per game on the ground.
Edge: Kansas City
Special Teams
The Chiefs have thrived in the return game, averaging 25.8 yards per kickoff return attempt and 10.5 yards per punt return. Kansas City has been strong defending returns, as well, allowing 24.9 yards per kick return and just 7.3 yards per punt return. Placekicker Ryan Succop has been mostly solid - converting 18-of-21 field goal attempts - but has connected just once in four tries from 50 yards or longer.
It isn't enough for the Broncos to excel in the passing and running games - they've also been productive on special teams, joining Minnesota as the only clubs with both a kick return and a punt return touchdown. Denver is surrendering 24.6 yards per kickoff return and 10.9 yards per punt return, ranking in the lower half of the league in both categories. Kicker Matt Prater hasn't been busy but he has been effective, making all 12 of his field-goal attempts.
Edge: Denver
Notable Quotable
"It's frustrating. You work hard, you work hard, sometimes you win the first battle, and the second one, but there's not much to do about it because the ball is out. We know he doesn't hold the ball. If he buys time, it's rare you don't see the pass completed. For us to put pressure on the quarterback is huge." - Chiefs LB Hali on Manning
"It's great whether you're a player, assistant strength coach, head coach or fan. It's exciting to be involved in games that take on extra meaning. It's one game, and that's how we're going to approach it, but clearly there will be more excitement in the stands, and the juices will be flowing a little more in a game like this." - Broncos interim head coach Jack Del RioComment
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Cappers Access
Bears -3
Cardinals -8
49ers +3
Broncos -7.5Comment
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Stephen Nover
403 ATL -1.0 triple-dime betComment
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Dave Essler
3* Tampa BayComment
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