11-18-13

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Monday Night Football betting: Patriots at Panthers

New England Patriots at Carolina Panthers (-3, 46)

Cam Newton made a splashy entrance on the NFL scene, posting spectacular numbers that did not translate into wins for the Carolina Panthers and the former No. 1 overall pick. Newton may not be putting up head-spinning stats, but the victories keep piling up for the Panthers, who will go for their sixth consecutive win when they host the New England Patriots on Monday night. The Patriots had a bye week to prepare for Carolina following a 55-31 demolition of Pittsburgh on Nov. 3.

Although the Panthers scored at least 30 points in four straight games prior to last week's 10-9 win at San Francisco, they have been dominant on the other side of the ball, ranking second in the league in points allowed at 12.8 per game. "They're one of the best defenses in the league," New England quarterback Tom Brady said. "We have to play really well. I think our execution has to be at its best." The Patriots hold a two-game lead in the AFC East while Carolina is a game behind New Orleans in the NFC South.

TV: 8:40 p.m. ET, ESPN

LINE: The Panthers opened at -1 and have been bet to -3. The total opened at 44.5 and has been bet up to 46.

WEATHER: It will be clear with temperatures in the low-50s with a 10 percent chance of rain.

ABOUT THE PATRIOTS (7-2): New England is coming off its best offensive performance of the season in the mauling of the Steelers, getting 432 yards and
four touchdown passes from Brady and 100-yard games from tight end Rob Gronkowski and wideouts Danny Amendola and rookie Aaron Dobson. Stevan Ridley complemented the aerial attack with 115 yards rushing and two TDs as the Patriots amassed 610 yards of total offense. The Patriots' defense has been rocked by season-ending injuries to Pro Bowl nose tackle Vince Wilfork and middle linebacker Jerod Mayo, but could get back star cornerback Aqib Talib, who has been sidelined the past three games by a hip injury.

ABOUT THE PANTHERS (6-3): Carolina's defense, led by tackling machine Luke Kuechly at linebacker, has surrendered 11.4 points during the winning streak
and limited San Francisco to three field goals and 151 total yards last week. Defensive ends Charles Johnson and Greg Hardy have combined for 13.5 sacks
- "We take what we want," Hardy said of a unit that ranks second overall (283.3 yards) and tied for fourth against the pass (201.3). Newton has not thrown for more than 249 yards during the five-game run, but he has seven scoring passes and three TD runs in that span while directing a ball-control offense that averages 127.8 yards on the ground.

TRENDS:

* Patriots are 5-0 in their last five Monday Night games.
* Panthers are 5-0 ATS in their last five overall.
* Over is 4-1 in Patriots last five Monday Night games.
* Over is 13-3-2 in Panthers last 18 versus a team with a winning record.

EXTRA POINTS:

1. Brady is 13-4 on Monday night for the Patriots, who outlasted Carolina 32-29 in Super Bowl XXXVIII.

2. Second-year LB Kuechly is averaging a shade under 10 tackles in 25 career games.

3. New England has forced a turnover in 36 straight games, the longest active streak in the league.

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Tale of the Tape: New England Patriots at Carolina Panthers

Tom Brady and the rejuvenated New England Patriots offense face their toughest test of the season Monday night when they travel to Carolina for a date with the Panthers.

Brady looked like his old self in the Patriots' last game, throwing for 432 yards and four touchdowns as New England blasted the Pittsburgh Steelers 55-31 before enjoying a much-needed bye week. The Panthers are red-hot in their own right, riding a five-game winning streak while limiting opponents to just 57 total points over that stretch.

Here's the breakdown in our betting tale of the tape:

Offense

Brady and the Patriots scuffled through the first half of the season - dealing with injuries to Rob Gronkowski, Danny Amendola and Shane Vereen - but still managed to reel off eight victories in their first 10 games. New England comes into Week 11 sitting 20th overall in passing yardage (2,088), but has thrown just six interceptions against 13 touchdowns. The Patriots have excelled in the run game so far, ranked eighth in total yardage (1,162) while racking up 10 scores.

Third-year quarterback Cam Newton has had an uneven season to date; the Panthers rank fourth from the bottom in total passing yardage (1,762), but Newton has completed nearly 63 percent of his passes and ranks 11th in QB rating (88.3). He has thrown 13 touchdown passes but has been intercepted eight times. The run game has looked ordinary, ranked 10th overall in yardage (1,150) with 10 touchdowns but averaging just 3.9 yards per carry.

Edge: New England

Defense

The Patriots have had to deal with a litany of injuries on the defense corps - but it's difficult to tell by looking at the numbers. New England has allowed the 11th-fewest passing yards so far (2,095) while limiting opponents to 13 touchdowns and hauling in 12 interceptions. The run defense has been less effective - teams are averaging better than 128 yards per game versus the Patriots but New England has only surrendered four touchdowns on the ground.

No team in football does a better job of limiting opposition yardage than the Panthers. Carolina has clamped down on opponents' pass attacks, allowing the fourth-fewest yards through the air (1,812) while giving up just seven touchdowns and intercepting 13 passes - tied for the most in the NFL entering Week 11. The run defense has been even more impressive, allowing the second-fewest rushing yards (738) on 3.8 yards per carry while permitting only two scores.

Edge: Carolina

Special Teams

The Patriots have had an up-and-down return game so far, ranked 24th in average kickoff return (21.9 yards) and ninth in average punt return (11.5). They've been stingy when it comes to special teams defense, allowing the fifth-lowest kick-return average (20.5) while limiting opponents to 9.3 yards per punt return. Veteran kicker Steven Gostkowski has been one of the top kickers in the league yet again, converting 22-of-23 field-goal opportunities.

Carolina ranks 20th in the league in kick-return average (22.4) and 16th in punt-return average (8.7). That results in a modest special teams net loss, as the Panthers are allowing opponents to average 23.4 yards per kick return and 9.4 yards per punt return. Panthers placekicker Graham Gano has been solid to date, making 13-of-14 field-goal attempts; he hit from 53 yards out but missed a 48-yarder in last week's victory over San Francisco.

Edge: Patriots

Notable Quotable

"(The Panthers have) a problem on their hands. Shane is a playmaker out of the backfield. Whether it's on the ground or through the air, he does it well. I'm excited to have him back out there, and I know he's ready to play. He was hungry coming into this year and started out hot." - Patriots RB Stevan Ridley on teammate Vereen, who will suit up for the first time since suffering a wrist injury in Week 1

"We're relevant right now. But we can't just stop and say, 'Hey, let's pop bottles. Let's celebrate, order some hot wings and pizza. We're just halfway through the season. We just have to continue doing the things that's putting this feeling in our hearts because it's becoming a special thing to watch." - Newton

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Patriots 1-3-1 ATS in last five games off a bye

In the past five years the New England Patriots are 4-1 straight up when Bill Belichick has an extra week to prepare for an opponent. But in that time the Patriots are only 1-3-1 against the spread. The last time they covered was back in 2008 when they defeated the 49ers in San Francisco 30-12.

This week the Patriots head to Carolina to take on the Panthers on Monday night as +3 road underdogs. It is the first time time in the Belichick era that the Patriots are underdogs coming off a bye.

The Patriots have also only hit the Over twice in the past five seasons when coming off a bye. The total is currently at 46.

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Bank shots: NBA's weekly betting news and notes

Each week, we look back on the NBA betting scene and give you the best - and worst - basketball bets, as well as some spots to keep an eye on with the upcoming schedule.

For the week of Nov. 11-17

Hottest ATS - Chicago Bulls (3-0 SU, 3-0 ATS)

After a sluggish start to the season, Derrick Rose and the Chicago Bulls have seemed to shake off the rust. The Bulls started the season 1-3 straight up and 0-4 against the spread, but since have gone on a four-game winning streak, covering the spread in each game. During the winning streak, the Bulls have done what they do best - play defense. They are holding teams to 90 ppg and just 40.3 percent shooting from the floor, ranking them third and second respectively. This week will be a tough test for the red-hot Bulls. They face the scrappy Charlotte Bobcats at home before kicking off a west coast road trip Thursday in Denver.

Coldest ATS - Orlando Magic (1-2 SU, 0-3 ATS)

After a hot start to the season which saw the Orlando Magic go 3-2 SU and an impressive 5-0 ATS, the Magic have lost their touch. They have gone 1-4 in their last five games and haven't covered in that span. Last week the Magic gave up 106.3 ppg, which included 120 points in a loss to the offensively deficient Boston Celtics. This week, the Magic play a home-and-home series with the Miami Heat before ending the week against the Phoenix Suns, who are still lighting it up against the spread with a 7-1-1 record this season.

Best over play - Los Angeles Clippers (3-0 SU, 3-0 O/U)

The team formerly know as 'Lob City' returned to their high-flying ways this week, notching some big wins at home against good competition. The Clippers defeated Western Conference contenders Minnesota Timberwolves and Oklahoma City Thunder as well as knocking off the Brooklyn Nets. The Clippers averaged 110 ppg over that span. The schedule doesn't get any easier for the Clippers though. They play five games next week, including rematches on the road against the Wolves and Thunder. They have home games against the Memphis Grizzlies, the Sacramento Kings and the Chicago Bulls. The Clippers have hit the Over in all five home games this season.

Best under play - San Antonio Spurs (3-0 SU, 0-3 O/U)

It has quietly been business as usual for the San Antonio Spurs, who are tied with the Indiana Pacers for the best record in the NBA at 9-1. They have also been a solid under play all season, hitting the Under seven times in 10 games. They have done this by playing excellent defense and being efficient on offense. The Spurs rank second and fourth, in points per game and field goal percentage respectively. They are also shooting 47.6 percent from the floor, good for fifth in the NBA. This week the Spurs take on the Boston Celtics at home, the Memphis Grizzlies on the road and finish of the week at home against the Cleveland Cavaliers. They are all ranked 24th or worse in scoring this season.

Surveying the schedule:

The Philadelphia 76ers have been a solid over play this season going 8-3. Their fast pace style of play has made them a great target for Over bettors. They rank eighth in the league in scoring at 104.5 ppg and last in the NBA in points against, giving up 111.1. The 76ers start this week at Dallas then return home to take on Toronto. Toronto and Dallas are a combined 12-8 O/U.

All stats prior to Sunday's NBA action.

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Bobcats at Bulls: What bettors need to know

Charlotte Bobcats at Chicago Bulls

The Chicago Bulls’ slow start is far in the rearview mirror now that the defense is matching up with the offensive potential. The Bulls will look to push their winning streak to five straight when they host the Charlotte Bobcats on Monday. Chicago is allowing an average of 82 points in the last four contests and are coming off a 110-94 victory over previously-unbeaten Indiana on Saturday.

Derrick Rose returned from a one-game absence due to a hamstring injury and put together one of his best games of the season against the Pacers, knocking down six 3-pointers and handing out four assists without a turnover. The Bobcats just got finished with one Eastern Conference contender in a 97-81 home loss to the Miami Heat on Saturday and will get Indiana later this month. Charlotte is not quite as stout defensively as the Bulls but is in the top five in the NBA in scoring defense.

TV: 8 p.m. ET, SportsSouth (Charlotte), CSN Chicago

ABOUT THE BOBCATS (5-5): Charlotte has held all but two of its opponents under the century mark and limited the Boston Celtics and Cleveland Cavaliers to an average of 81.5 points in its last two road games - both wins. Kemba Walker is the most consistent scorer for the Bobcats but is having a rough go of it lately, shooting 27.7 percent from the floor over the last five games. The former Connecticut star shot under 50 percent in each of his last eight contests.

ABOUT THE BULLS (5-3): Chicago looks like a title contender of late while scoring at least 96 points in each of its last four wins to go along with the solid defense. “The ball movement has been there all season,” coach Tom Thibodeau said. “The ball is going in now, and when the ball goes in, it looks better.” The ball went in against Indiana, including 11-of-19 from 3-point range as the Bulls went over 100 points for the first time this season.

TRENDS:

* Under is 5-0-1 in the last six meetings.
* Road team is 7-0 ATS in the last seven meetings.
* Bobcats are 4-0 ATS in their last four vs. NBA Central.
* Bulls are 1-4 ATS in their last five vs. NBA Southeast.

BUZZER BEATERS:

1. The Bulls have taken seven of the last eight in the series and posted a 105-75 triumph in the last meeting, Feb. 22, 2013.

2. Charlotte C Al Jefferson (ankle) missed the last two games and is questionable for Monday.

3. Chicago F Luol Deng is averaging 21 points on 16-of-29 shooting over the last two contests.

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College football odds: Week 13 opening line report

Practically every week in college football, there’s a major showdown in the Southeastern Conference. That’s certainly the case for Week 13, which is highlighted by reigning Heisman Trophy winner Johnny Manziel and Texas A&M traveling to Baton Rouge to battle LSU.

The Aggies (8-2 SU, 5-5 ATS), coming off a bye, haven’t had trouble in the scoring department all season, scoring 41 points or more in all 10 games. And they’ve racked up huge totals the past few weeks, breaking 50 in each of their last three games while going 3-0 SU (2-1 ATS), including a 51-41 home victory Nov. 9 against Mississippi State – though they fell short of covering in that contest as 19.5-point favorites.

LSU (7-3, 4-5-1 ATS), also coming off a bye, got off to a strong 4-0 SU start this year, but the Tigers are just 3-3 SU (2-3-1 ATS) in their last six games and have failed to cover in their last three outings. That includes a 38-17 loss catching 14 points at top-ranked Alabama on Nov. 9.

Peter Korner, founder of Nevada-based odds service The Sports Club, found the total on this game intriguing, as he expects a shootout in the bayou.

“This is another great game to watch,” Korner said. “The total we sent out is 78, so you know this is going to be an up-and-down game. What Texas A&M game isn't?”

As for the spread, Korner had to give the nod to the host.

“Our range of numbers went from LSU pick to -4.5, and we settled on LSU -3. Of course, Texas A&M has a great chance of winning this game straight up, but playing at LSU this late in the year is a tough challenge for any team – even one led by Johnny Football. We think this line will hold close to our opener by kickoff. A&M has a good, steady flow of cash that has followed them all year.”

Arizona State Sun Devils (-1.5) at UCLA Bruins

ASU (8-2 SU, 5-5 ATS) heads to the West Coast toting a five-game SU win streak (3-2 SU), and the Sun Devils have gotten it done in blowout fashion and grind-it-out fashion. In wins over Colorado, Washington and at Washington State, ASU rang up 54, 53 and 55 points respectively; the past two weeks, the Sun Devils fended off host Utah 20-19 laying seven points and bested visiting Oregon State 30-17, barely failing to cash as a 13.5-point chalk.

It appears UCLA (8-2 SU, 7-3 ATS) has gotten over brutal back-to-back road trips. Since losing 24-10 at Stanford and 42-14 at Oregon, the Bruins have won three in a row, covering their last two while averaging 39 ppg in that stretch, including a 41-31 home win over Washington.

“This is a very good game, and the line is representative of how unpredictable this game is,” Korner said. "Our range of numbers went from UCLA -3 to ASU -2. After discussing the teams overall strengths and recent play, we made ASU the road favorite. We're going to open this game at ASU -1.5 and see where
that takes us. We see the offshores had play on ASU, and that ASU was up to -3. But we're not going that high here in Nevada with the large Los Angeles following we have in our sportsbooks on the weekend.”

Baylor Bears (-11) at Oklahoma State Cowboys

Baylor (9-0 SU) aims to keep its name in the national championship conversation. If scoring and spread-covering ability were part of the BCS formula, the Bears would definitely be No. 1. They average a whopping 61.2 ppg, rolling to a 63-34 win over Texas Tech on Saturday laying 27.5 points at AT&T Stadium, and their 8-1 ATS record (4-0 last four) ranks third in the nation.

Oklahoma State (9-1 SU) is also no slouch at the betting window, with a 7-3 ATS mark (14th), and like Baylor, offense is a big part of the formula. The Cowboys have won six in a row SU and five in a row ATS, scoring 38 points or more four times in that stretch, including two games in the 50s.

“Nevada books continue to get trampled by Baylor each and every week,” Korner said. “We don't want to be light on this team. Our range of numbers went from Baylor -10 to -14. We saw the number diminish from -10.5 to -9.5 early Sunday morning, but we're not falling for that. We stuck a -11 as our opener and fully expected that weak -9.5 to jump back up in no time.”

Northern Illinois Huskies (-2.5) at Toledo Rockets

Northern Illinois (10-0 SU, 7-3 ATS) is looking to become a BCS bowl buster for the second straight year. The Huskies had their hands full at home last week against Ball State, but pulled away in the fourth quarter for a 48-27 win and cover as an 8.5-point favorite. NIU has cashed four in a row and six of its last seven.

Toledo (7-3 SU) has been a good bet this season, with a 7-2-1 ATS mark (10th nationally), and the Rockets’ scoring production has been strong over the past few weeks. Toledo has won five in a row SU (4-1 ATS), scoring 45 points or more in four of those games, including a 51-41 home win over Buffalo as a 5.5-point chalk last week.

“This game will be an excellent one, with two very good teams going at it,” Korner said. “Apparently, it was a no-brainer, as everyone had Northern Illinois -2.5 -- all five of our oddsmakers and the offshores. Nothing to see here, keep it moving.”

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NCAAF betting: FSU's Winston Heisman fave at -400

Despite another impressive performance from Florida State QB Jameis Winston this weekend, the news of Winston being named in an ongoing sexual assault case has caused his Heisman odds to take a hit.

Winston is still the fave at -400 to take home the award for college football's most outstanding player, but the margin between him and the rest of the field is much closer.

Last week before the news broke about Winston, he was favored at -800. Winston led FSU to a 59-3 win over Syracuse and now has 2938 passing yards and 31 total touchdowns while completing 70.9 percent of his passes this season. If Winston were to be charged with a felony, he would automatically be suspended by the FSU athletic department.

Defending Heisman winner Johnny Manziel has moved into second place after jumping from +500 to +250 even with Texas A&M not in action this week. The Aggies QB has 3313 yards passing and 31 passing touchdowns to go along with 600 yards rushing and eight rushing touchdowns.

Alabama QB AJ McCarron is close behind at +450. That is a slight increase from last week where he was at +500. Alabama defeated Mississippi State 20-7 on Saturday and McCarron now has 2228 passing yards with 21 touchdowns and is completing 67.8 percent of his passes.

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Novak Djokovic 5/4 to win 2013 Australian Open

Serbia might be coming off a huge loss to the Czech Republic in Davis Cup tennis Sunday, but Novak Djokovic is the favorite to win the Australian Open with odds of 5/4.

Djokovic is the defending champion at the event, which is the first Grand Slam of the tennis calendar and begins Jan. 13 in Melbourne.

Here is a list for both the men's and women's singles events, courtesy of the LVH Superbook:

ODDS TO WIN MENS SINGLES:

NOVAK DJOKOVIC 5/4
RAFAEL NADAL 2/1
ANDY MURRAY 5/1
JUAN MARTIN DEL POTRO 10/1
ROGER FEDERER 15/1
JO-WILFRIED TSONGA 50/1
STANISLAS WAWRINKA 30/1
TOMAS BERDYCH 50/1
DAVID FERRER 50/1
MILOS RAONIC 60/1
JERZY JANOWICZ 80/1
GRIGOR DIMITROV 100/1
BERNARD TOMIC 100/1
JOHN ISNER 100/1
RICHARD GASQUET 100/1
ERNESTS GULBIS 100/1
TOMMY HAAS 100/1
JANKO TIPSAREVIC 250/1
FERNANDO VERDASCO 200/1
GAEL MONFILS 200/1
LLEYTON HEWITT 200/1
MIKHAIL YOUZHNY 200/1
NICOLAS ALMAGRO 200/1
PHILIPP KOHLSCHREIBER 250/1
KEI NISHIKORI 200/1
KEVIN ANDERSON 250/1
JEREMY CHARDY 250/1
ALEXANDR DOLGOPOLOV 300/1
GILLES SIMON 300/1
SAM QUERREY 500/1
JURGEN MELZER 500/1
JACK SOCK 1000/1

ODDS TO WIN WOMENS SINGLES:

SERENA WILLIAMS 10/11
VICTORIA AZARENKA 4/1
MARIA SHARAPOVA 8/1
NA LI 10/1
PETRA KVITOVA 20/1
AGNIESZKA RADWANSKA 25/1
SLOANE STEPHENS 30/1
SAMANTHA STOSUR 30/1
ANGELIQUE KERBER 40/1
SIMONA HALEP 25/1
SABINE LISICKI 50/1
MONA BARTHEL 100/1
CAROLINE WOZNIACKI 50/1
ANA IVANOVIC 60/1
SARA ERRANI 100/1
VENUS WILLIAMS 80/1
ANDREA PETKOVIC 100/1
ANASTASIA PAVLYUCHENKOVA 150/1
EKATERNIA MAKAROVA 100/1
ROBERTA VINCI 150/1
LAURA ROBSON 125/1
MADISON KEYS 150/1
KIRSTEN FLIPKENS 150/1
FLAVIA PENNETTA 200/1
JULIA GOERGES 150/1
SVETLANA KUZNETSOVA 100/1
MARIA KIRILENKO 150/1
JELENA JANKOVIC 100/1
ALIZE CORNET 200/1
JAMIE HAMPTON 250/1
HEATHER WATSON 300/1
ALISON RISKE 250/1

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Today's NFL Picks

MONDAY, NOVEMBER 18
Time Posted: 12:00 p.m. EST (11/13) Game 429-430: New England at Carolina (8:40 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: New England 140.251; Carolina 137.723
Dunkel Line: New England by 1 1/2; 50
Vegas Line: Carolina by 2 1/2; 46 1/2
Dunkel Pick: New England (+2 1/2); Over

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NFL

Week 11

Patriots (7-2) @ Panthers (6-3)—Carolina went to Candlestick last week and outslugged 49ers 10-9, holding SF to 44 yards passing; they’ve won/covered last five games, now get national TV exposure and shot at team used to such exposure. Panthers allowed only one first half TD all season, and outscored last three opponents 40-7 in second half- they’ve won last three home games by combined score of 92-15, after losing home opener 12-7 to Seattle. Curious to see young Patriot receivers work against this impressive defense; NE lost its last two road games, gaining less than 300 yards in both games. Pats ran ball for 349 yards in last two games; they’ve won nine of last ten post-bye games. Carolina is 20-43 on third down in last three games, leading to field position advantages of 16-15-5 yards. NE won three of five series games, 32-29 win in Super Bowl 28 being most famous one- teams split two meetings here. Four of last five Carolina games, three of last four Patriot games went over the total.

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NFL betting: This week's Top key injuries

Shane Vereen, RB, New England Patriots (N/A, wrist)

Vereen is a man without an official injury status, since the Patriots have yet to activate him from the physically-unable-to-perform list. That's expected to be a mere formality, yet it isn't immediately clear how much Vereen will play in his first taste of game action since undergoing wrist surgery in early September. After racking up 159 yards in his only game of the season, the 24-year-old will provide some much-needed big-play ability to New England's beleaguered attack.

The Patriots are listed as one-point dogs for the Monday nighter in Carolina. The total is set at 46.

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Football Jesus Podcast Pick : Patriots Monday night

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Mark Lawrence

3* Carolina

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J. Clifton

CAROLINA UNDER 46
PATRIOTS + 1 1/2