11-21-13

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Gamblers Data

Free Plays Thursday

Toronto Maple leafs -160

Phoenix Coyotes -130

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Cappers Access

Saints -9
UNLV +2.5
Bulls -1

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JOE GAVAZZI

CFB
UNLV at Air Force (-1) 9:30 ET ESPNU
5* Air Force
In late October, UNLV recorded their 5th win of the season against Nevada. It left the Rebels 1 win short of qualifying for their first Bowl Game since 2000. Excitement ran high for UNLV backers in Sin City. Since that time, however, the Rebs have dropped a pair of home games to San Jose and Utah St. Now, the pressure mounts with this road trip to Air Force and a home game against surging San Diego St. still on the agenda. Pressure packed times for HC Hauck. Remember, this is a guy who coached the Rebels to a record of 5-16 ATS as road dog. The Air Force has struggled through an injury-plagued season that has left them 2-8 SU, 3-7 ATS and winless in league play. But, we know this team will never give up. Their nightmare season has resulted in a reduction of this line by at least 10 points since opening week. On recent runs of 6-17 ATS and 5-15 ATS as home chalk, we back the bounce from an Air Force team who has reached the nadir of their discontent.

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StatFox Super Situations™ - FoxSheets

NBA CHICAGO at DENVER
Play Over - All teams where the total is between 190 and 199.5 points after a win by 6 points or less against opponent after a combined score of 205 points or more 2 straight games
59-26 over the last 5 seasons. ( 69.4% 30.4 units )
2-1 this year. ( 66.7% 0.9 units )

NBA CHICAGO at DENVER
Play On - Home teams vs. the money line (DENVER) after going over the total by 42 or more points total in their last five games, with a winning percentage of between 40-49% on the season
59-25 over the last 5 seasons. ( 70.2% 30.4 units )
3-0 this year. ( 100.0% 3.0 units )

NBA CHICAGO at DENVER
Play On - Underdogs vs. the 1rst half line (DENVER) an explosive offensive team (>=102 PPG) against an average offensive team (92-98 PPG), after a loss by 6 points or less
77-38 since 1997. ( 67.0% 35.2 units )
1-2 this year. ( 33.3% -1.2 units )

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StatFox Super Situations™ - FoxSheets

CBB NEBRASKA at MASSACHUSETTS
Play On - Neutral court teams as a favorite or pick (MASSACHUSETTS) an explosive offensive team (>=76 PPG) against a good offensive team (74-76 PPG), after scoring 80 points or more
29-8 over the last 5 seasons. ( 78.4% 20.2 units )

CBB UNC-WILMINGTON at W KENTUCKY
Play On - A home team vs. the money line (W KENTUCKY) after allowing 30 points or less in the first half in 2 straight games against opponent after scoring 80 points or more 3 straight games
151-88 since 1997. ( 63.2% 62.9 units )

CBB THE CITADEL at WAKE FOREST
Play Against - Road underdogs of 11 or more points vs. the first half line (THE CITADEL) poor team from last season - outscored by opponents by 3 or more points/game, after allowing 45 points or more in the first half last game
29-8 since 1997. ( 78.4% 20.2 units )
1-1 this year. ( 50.0% -0.1 units )

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StatFox Super Situations™ - FoxSheets

NHL CHICAGO at WINNIPEG
Play On - Road teams against the money line (CHICAGO) after 6 or more consecutive overs, good team - outscoring their opponents by 0.3+ goals/game
48-21 since 1997. ( 69.6% 27.1 units )

NHL NASHVILLE at TORONTO
Play On - Road underdogs against the money line (NASHVILLE) off a road win where they shut out their opponent, with a losing record in the first half of the season
45-40 since 1997. ( 52.9% 36.3 units )
1-1 this year. ( 50.0% 1.0 units )

NHL NASHVILLE at TORONTO
Play On - Road teams against the money line (NASHVILLE) off a road win where they shut out their opponent, with a losing record in the first half of the season
53-45 since 1997. ( 54.1% 38.0 units )
1-3 this year. ( 25.0% -1.2 units )

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River City Sharps

CBB
Wofford at Minnesota
Richard Pitino has Minnesota playing really good basketball in his first-year, as evidenced by the Gophers 15-point victory at Richmond earlier this season. The Gophers come into the game with a 4-0 mark while Wofford has a 1-2 record, including a 20-point loss at Georgia to open the season and a 21-point loss at Iona. This is not your typical Minnesota team like we have seen over the past several years under Tubby Smith. True to his HOF Dad's teaching, the younger Pitino wants his team to defend full court, shoot a decent amount of 3's and get up and down the floor. Wofford is only averaging 63.3 ppg while Minnesota is scoring over 80 ppg and giving up just under 63. The real story in this game will be on the glass, where Minnesota has a 12 rebound per game edge. In addition, they also shoot FT better than Wofford. All in all, we feel like this is a game where Minnesota, which is feeling good about themselves, continues that feel good story. The Sharps say....

3 UNITS - MINNESOTA (-17.5)

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Advanced Sports Investments

CBB
1X 731 Temple +2.5
1X 753 S Dakota St +7.5

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WINNING POINTS

PRO BASKETBALL

*Oklahoma City over Los Angeles Clippers by 5
Bad blood was spilled when these teams met at Staples Center eight days ago with
Serge Ibaka and Matt Barnes getting thrown out. The Thunder seek revenge for that
111-103 defeat.
OKLAHOMA CITY 107-102.

*Denver over Chicago by 3
Chicago has done nothing defensively on the road to ensure confidence surrendering
an average of 97.7 points away from United Center.
DENVER 102-99.

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NBA doubleheader: Clippers at Thunder, Bulls at Nuggets

L.A. Clippers at Oklahoma City Thunder (-5.5, 210)

Chris Paul is setting NBA records as he drags the Los Angeles Clippers to the top half of the Western Conference. Paul will look to notch his 13th straight points-assists double-double to begin the season when the Clippers visit the Oklahoma City Thunder on Thursday. Paul scored 16 of his 20 points in the fourth quarter and handed out 11 assists on Wednesday to guide Los Angeles past the Minnesota Timberwolves in the opener of a two-game trip.

The Thunder will be looking for some revenge after suffering a 111-103 defeat to the Clippers in Los Angeles on Nov. 13. Oklahoma City fell again the next night but took its last two, including a 115-113 victory over Denver on Monday that kicked off a six-game homestand. That win left coach Scott Brooks and star Kevin Durant upset about the defensive effort. “We’ve got to do a better job of being a defensive team,” Brooks said. “We have to play better defense.”

TV: 8 p.m. ET, TNT.

LINE: The Thunder opened as -5 home faves and have been bet to -5.5. The total opened at 211.5 and have move down to 210.

COVERS POWER RANKINGS: L.A. Clippers (-12.6) - Oklahoma City (-12.4) + home court (-3) = -3.2 Oklahoma City

ABOUT THE CLIPPERS (8-4, 7-5 ATS): Paul was the best player on the floor in the final minutes at Minnesota, scoring 13 in a row for Los Angeles at one
point in the last four minutes to spark the team to a 102-98 victory. Paul went for 14 points and 16 assists in the first meeting with the Thunder but was overshadowed by teammate Matt Barnes, who got into a shoving match with Oklahoma City forward Serge Ibaka that left both ejected and was followed by some profane tweets from Barnes in the locker room. Barnes will not be a concern on Thursday, as he did not travel with the team on the road trip after suffering an eye contusion on Monday.

ABOUT THE THUNDER (7-3, 4-6 ATS): That skirmish between Barnes and Ibaka ended up being much worse for Oklahoma City, which squandered a nine-point halftime lead. Ibaka had been 6-for-6 from the floor in that first half before being tossed with six seconds left in the second quarter, and the team is increasing his role in the offense as it works in a smaller lineup. Ibaka is shooting 60.3 percent from the floor over his last five games but was held to six points on 3-of-7 shooting against the Nuggets on Wednesday.

TRENDS:

* Over is 4-0 in the last four meetings in Oklahoma City.
* Over is 4-0 in the last four meetings.
* Clippers are 12-4 ATS in the last 16 meetings in Oklahoma City.
* Thunder are 1-8 ATS in their its last nine home games.

BUZZER BEATERS:

1. Oklahoma City had a three-game winning streak in the series before falling last week.

2. Durant has scored 33 or more points in four of the last six games.

3. Paul’s 12 straight double-doubles to start the season surpasses Magic Johnson’s 11 from the 1990-91 campaign.

Chicago Bulls at Denver Nuggets (+1, 107)

The Chicago Bulls typically have trouble in Denver but bring a five-game winning streak into Thursday’s matchup against the Nuggets. Denver has won each of its last six home games against Chicago dating back to the 2005-06 season and is averaging 112.3 points during a three-game home winning streak. The Bulls, who are beginning a six-game road trip, are playing terrific defense and allowing an average of 81.8 points during their winning streak.

Derrick Rose continues to search for his MVP form in his comeback season and he will need to be on top of his game to deal with Denver point guard Ty Lawson, who is averaging 22 points and 8.6 assists. “Obviously, that’s a matchup that a lot of people want to see,” Nuggets coach Brian Shaw said. “Ty’s playing at a high level. Derrick Rose, we know what he’s capable of as well as a former MVP.” Rose is averaging just 15 points and 4.5 assists while shooting 34.4 percent from the field.

TV: 10:30 p.m. ET, TNT, WGN (Chicago)

LINE: The Nuggets have held steady as +1 home dogs. The total opened at 196 and has been bet up to 197.

COVERS POWER RANKINGS: Chicago (-10.0) - Denver (-5.5) + home court (-3.0) = Chicago -1.5

ABOUT THE BULLS (6-3, 4-5 ATS): Versatile Jimmy Butler will miss the road excursion after an MRI exam revealed he suffered a sprained right big toe in
Monday’s victory over Charlotte. Butler is averaging 11.2 points, 4.8 rebounds and 1.8 steals and either Mike Dunleavy or Kirk Hinrich will move into a starting role. “It’s part of the game,” Chicago coach Tom Thibodeau said prior to Wednesday’s practice. “But we have more than enough. I’ve been pleased with our bench play. So the guys that are called upon, they have to be ready.”

ABOUT THE NUGGETS (4-6, 5-5 ATS): Guard Nate Robinson is ailing with a wrist injury at the worst possible time – with a game against Chicago arriving.
Robinson was a playoff standout for the Bulls last season while Rose was sidelined and he desperately wants to play against his former teammates. “I play through all injuries if I can,” Robinson said. “I love the game too much.” Robinson scored 24 points in his Denver debut but has reached double digits just twice since and has scored only 25 total points in the Nuggets’ last six games.

TRENDS:

* Home team is 8-2-1 ATS in the last 11 meetings.
* Over is 8-3 in the last 11 meetings in Denver.
* Over is 10-4 in the last 14 meetings.
* Bulls are 1-5 ATS in the last six meetings in Denver.

BUZZER BEATERS:

1. Denver has won 12 of its last 13 home meetings with Chicago.

2. Chicago ranks second in the NBA in scoring defense at 89 per game.

3. The Nuggets missed 18 free throws in Monday’s 115-113 loss to Oklahoma City.

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Totals 4 You Reguar Service Selections for Thursday, November 21st
2013 Thursday Night Pro Football Total of the Year!!!!!
New Orleans/Atlanta under 53
You Win or we'll email you Friday's College Football Report Free of Charge!!!College Football Best BetsRutgers/Central Florida under 57 1/2
Rice/Alabama-Birmingham over 63 1/2
UNLV/Air Force under 60 1/2

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NCAAB

Thursday, November 21

Miami won last three games, vs teams ranked outside top 200, after OT loss to #192 St Francis in opener; Hurricanes made 7-11 from arc in its 70-54 win at Charleston Monday. Central Florida made just 5-22 behind arc in 72-50 loss to Miami last year; UCF is turning ball over 21.5% of time in 2-1 start, with only loss 80-68 at home to Florida State.

Florida has injury/suspension issues; they've still forced turnovers on 22.8% of time. Gators beat Middle Tennessee 66-45 LY, shooting 58% from floor, pulling away from 29-26 halftime lead. Blue Raiders are 4-0 but are on road for first time- their best win was 80-73 vs Akron. SEC home favorites are 10-4 vs spread. C-USA road underdogs are 9-7.

Gonzaga beat Washington State 89-81/71-69 last two years, after losing to Coogs year before that; this has become bigger game for State, since Zags became mational program. Gonzaga made 45.7% of 3's in 3-0 start, winning by 24-32-15 points. Wazzu allowed 60 ppg in winning its first two games vs stiffs. WCC home favorites are 13-6 against the spread.

Kansas State won its last two games by 8-13 points after losing opener to Northern Colorado; Wildcats are shooting 25.9% from arc, 61.5% on foul line. Charlotte blew 16-point halftime lead and lost to Charleston by point- they beat couple stiffs by 5-14 points. Big X home favorites are 9-5 against the spread. C-USA road underdogs are 9-7 vs spread.

Georgetown hasn't played in 8 days since beating Wright State by 18, in first game after they got back from Korea (lost to Oregon by 7). Hoyas made 29.7% behind arc in first two games. Northeastern lost first couple games to America East teams (Boston U by 3, Stony Brook by 7), beat Central Connecticut by 7 last game. CAA underdogs are 7-5 vs spread.

Michigan made just 8-29 from arc in 77-70 loss at Iowa State Sunday, its first loss after wins by 27-34 over stiffs. Long Beach State is young and in trouble against this non-league schedule, losing three games by 34-1-13 points, after beating an NAIA team. Big Dozen favorites are 12-9 vs spread. Big West road underdogs are 4-10 against the spread.

VCU forced turnovers on 29% of possessions in winning its first three games by 38-3-21 points; Rams won by 3 at Virginia of ACC in its only road game. Florida State scored 86.7 ppg in winning its first three games by 24-12-28 points, but they've turned ball over 24.3% of time. FSU is #4 in country at forcing turnovers, getting one on 27.3% of possessions.

Nebraska won its first three games by 24-15-26 points; Cornhuskers are forcing turnovers 24.3% of time, making 41.9% of 3's, but UMass will be step up in competition, having already beaten Boston College, LSU while scoring 89 ppg. Minutemen have four starters back from a 21-12 team. A-13 favorites are 8-11 vs spread. Big Dozen underdogs are 1-2.

New Mexico scored 98.5 ppg in winning first two games vs stiffs; hard to tell much from that, but Lobos have four starters back from 29-8 club to go with its new head coach, former assistant Neal. UAB won its first two D-I games, beating Rutgers/Troy while scoring 80 ppg. Blazers are turning ball over 20.3% of time, but they killed Rutgers/Troy on boards.

Georgia split its first two games, losing 80-71 at home to Ga Tech in last game Friday. Davidson allowed 87.3 ppg in losing first three games, by 34-4-13 points; teams are shooting 62% inside arc, 41% from arc against them. SEC teams are 2-4 vs spread away from home; SoCon teams have covered only three of 20 games, two of 16 as an underdog.

Clemson allowed 48.3 ppg in winning first three games, beating its rival South Carolina 71-57 Sunday, holding SC to 35.4% from floor. Temple lost four starters from LY, lost to Kent State/Towson last couple games while allowing 78 ppg and forcing turnovers only 11.4% of time. ACC favorites are 14-8 vs spread. Big East underdogs are 0-2 against spread.

Indiana scored 92 ppg in winning first four games, all at home, but their 1-point win over LIU is little bit of red flag; Hoosiers held its first four opponents to 25.8% behind arc. Washington scored 88-92 points in its two wins, but also lost by 14 at home to Cal-Irvine. Long trip east for Huskies. Pac-12 underdogs are 2-2. Big Dozen favorites are 12-9.

South Dakota State lost its first three D-I games by 8-9-4 points, with win over NAIA team since then; Jackrabbit opponents are making 61% of shots inside arc. Texas Tech beat three stiffs, lost by 7 at Alabama in its only road game; Red Raiders are making 59.3% of shots inside arc, but also only 59.3% from line. Big X favorites are 9-6 against spread.

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Diamond Dog Sports

Saints / Falcons Over 52.5

UAB +18.5

Bulls / Nuggets Under 196

Washington +8

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Intpicks

2* Rice -18.5
1* Rutgers
1* New Orleans -9.5
1* Connecticut -9.5
1* Clippers/ThunderOver 210

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Chase Diamond

9* Denver +1½