11-23-13

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Docs

3 Unit Play. #80/#152 Tennessee Volunteers -2.5 over Vanderbilt Commodores (Saturday 7 pm ESPN 2) This battle of Tennessee is import for both teams as they are vying for postseason play. Vanderbilt already has enough wins to go bowling, but Tennessee needs to win out in order to get to six victories. Tennessee has won 34 of the 37 meetings and is 17-1 when the games are played in Knoxville. Tennessee is coming off a much-needed bye week after getting blown out by the big boys (Auburn, Missouri, & Alabama) the three previous weeks. This is a get-healthy game for Tennessee, and it is much needed in order to get the extra month of practice during December.
3 Unit Play. #86/#154 Take Central Michigan Chippewas -11 over UMASS Minutemen (Saturday 1 pm ESPN 3) Central Michigan is a traditional top-tier program in the MAC, but that is not the case this season. They currently sit at 4-6 on the year and need to win out to become bowl eligible. This is something that they will likely achieve since they are playing teams the next two weeks that have just three combined wins. UMASS is never a bad play as a huge underdog because they have decent defense, but getting around 10 points will not be enough for them to earn the cover. UMASS has a terrible offense as they score just 20 points per game.
6 Unit Play. #40/#158 Take Wyoming Cowboys -6 over Hawaii Warriors (Saturday 2 pm themw.com) Top College Football Play of the Weekend. To make no bones about it, both of these teams suck; however, Wyoming troubles have been self-inflicted with numerous turnovers each and every game. The Cowboys played alright against Boise State last week on defense, however, the offense turned it over way too much and that eventually caught-up with them. Hawaii played well last week at home in a game they desperately wanted but fell apart in overtime and I just do not think they will have much left in the tank. San Diego State played terrible last week on offense and that is the strong point of Wyoming. The Cowboys still have a shot at a bowl game and they need one badly or their coach may be shown the door. The line is creeping down and that just make me like Wyoming that much more. If Wyoming does not turnover the football I feel they will be able to light up the scoreboard in this game and Hawaii simply will not be able to keep up. The Warriors have only been competitive in one road game this season and were beaten by double digits against bad teams like Navy & Nevada. Hawaii is 3-10 in their last 13 games against teams with a losing record. Wyoming is 7-2 in their last 9 games against teams with a losing record. We must protect this football!
3 Unit Play. #104/#164 Take UCLA Bruins -2.5 over Arizona State Sun Devils (Saturday 7 pm FOX) One may think this is a strange line since UCLA is higher-ranked and at home but is an underdog to Arizona State this week in Pasadena. I went to Arizona State and have a great feel for the Sun Devils and just do not feel that they are that strong this season. UCLA has great balance and an athletic quarterback in Brett Hundley. He has the ability to beat you with his arm or his legs. We used UCLA last week against Washington, and the Bruins jumped out to a big lead, and we expect a similar result on Saturday. Both teams combined for four losses, but ASU has the only bad loss of the four, losing to Notre Dame at a neutral site. Arizona State will move the football on offense but not on a consistent basis. Arizona State is 2-5 ATS in their last seven road games. UCLA has covered four of their last five home games. Getting points is just a bonus we cannot afford to pass up.
3 Unit Play. #46/#202 Take Kansas State Wildcats -4.5 over Oklahoma Sooners (Saturday 12 pm Fox Sports 1) The Sooners have been having trouble throwing the football all season long, and Kansas State just continues to roll after a tough start to the season. Oklahoma now has issues on offense with Blake Bell, Damien Williams, and Lacolton Bester all out for this game. Kansas State can stop the run, and they have won four straight games. Only one of those four victories was a close game; last week against TCU. K-State is 21-6 ATS (one push) in their last 28 Big 12 games. Oklahoma is 3-8 ATS in their last 11 Big 12 games. Both trends hold true on Saturday.
2 Unit Play. #106/#208 Take Under 58 in Boise State @ San Diego State (Saturday 10:30 pm CBS Sports Network) We used and collected on both of these teams games last week, and we will ride the under again this week with the Broncos. Boise State faces a much better defense than they faced last week against Wyoming. Despite playing that terrible Cowboy defense, Boise State put up just 45 points, and a few of those touchdowns were aided by short fields by turnovers. San Diego State looked terrible on offense last week in Hawaii until the overtime period, and I just do not see things getting any better tonight against a better Boise State defense.

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Goodfella
Sat. Ariz St (ML)

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CKO
10 EAST CAROLINA over *NC State
Late CKO score forecast:
EAST CAROLINA 45 - *NC State 27

10 VANDERBILT over *Tennessee
Late Score Forecast:
VANDERBILT 27 - *Tennessee 20

10 MICHIGAN over *Iowa
Late Score Forecast:
MICHIGAN 24 - *Iowa 19

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PLAYBOOK
5★ BEST BET
Texas A&M over LSU by 10
When the Tigers take the fi eld in Baton Rouge today, not only will
they be trying to erase the memories of a brutal second half against
Alabama when a third-quarter deadlock quickly turned in a “Roll
Tide” of epic proportions, but they’ll also be attempting to extend
their winning skein to three over Texas A&M. The Bama loss knocked
LSU completely out of the BCS picture, but Les Miles has had an offweek
to adjust and it’s nothing that a win over their new SEC rivals
can’t cure. Aggie HC Kevin Sumlin was not the man in charge when
the Tigers tattooed Texas A&M in the Cotton Bowl following the
2010 season, but he certainly will be looking for payback from the
24-19 defeat last season that snapped a 5-game winning streak (LSU
forced 5 Aggie turnovers and responded to an early A&M 12-point
lead with 24 unanswered points). Sumlin’s team has been a perfect
10-0 away from Kyle Field since he took over from Mike Sherman,
but surprisingly, this is only their third road trip of the season. A quick
look at the stats reveals that in games against the three common
opponents they’ve faced this season (Alabama, Mississippi State and
Ole Miss), the Aggies won the stats by +166 yards while the Tigers
lost the stats by -127 yards, giving Johnny Football a 98 YPG net
differential advantage. A&M is also coming off a bye week, and Miles
is just 2-7 ATS as a home favorite against a rested opponent. The
Clincher: Aggie coach Kevin Sumlin is 13-3 SUATS in games
when his teams are seeking revenge, including 7-0 SUATS
versus foes off a SUATS loss.

4★ BEST BET
PENN ST over Nebraska by 14
Not a bad season for either of these once-powerful programs: both
teams reside in 3rd place in their respective divisions within the Big
Ten and both have records that would qualify for the post-season.
Of course, the Nittany Lions are going nowhere except the shopping malls this holiday season due to the Sandusky punishments, and that
is one of the reasons we like them so much this weekend – a victory
here guarantees a winning season and in their current situation,
players have to be satisfi ed with just a little less than normal.
Meanwhile, the Huskers have plenty ahead of them and while
they couldn’t overcome 5 turnovers to a stout Spartan defense last
week, they were the fi rst team to outyard MSU this season, posting
a season-high 392 yards against the nation’s top-ranked stop unit.
Also, leading Big 10 rusher Ameer Abdullah rushed for 100 yards for
the 7th straight game and became the fi rst RB to reach the century mark against MSU this season. But with the Final Home Game of the
year important for many alternative reasons in Happy Valley, and
with a convincing Game Eleven record of 11-0 SU and 9-2 ATS – not
to mention a perfect fi t inside our INCREDIBLE STAT box on page 3 –
we’ll look for a strong effort from Bill O’Brien’s team in what could be
Bo’s fi nal foray on the Big 10 road. The Clincher: The Lions are 5-0
SUATS in Last Home Games with revenge this century.

UPSET GAME OF THE WEEK UPSET
WAKE FOREST over Duke by 3

AWESOME ANGLE OF THE WEEK
Arizona

INCREDIBLE STAT OF THE WEEK
Penn State is 15-0 SU and 14-1 ATS at home with revenge off a conference win when facing a
conference foe with at least one loss on the season.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

POWERSWEEP
KEY SELECTIONS
4* Wisconsin over MINNESOTA - Battle of Paul Bunyan’s Axe. UW has won 9 in a row SU in this
series by 17 ppg and are 6-3 ATS. They are also 4-1 ATS (+282 ypg L/7) in Minny as Wisc fans
travel well here and what better place to do some early Christmas shopping than at the Mall of
America? LY we had a 3H Key Selection on these pages and a 4H LPS on UW -16’ and won easily
38-13 with Minn taking the RS off Philip Nelson giving him his first start at QB. UW had 24-12 FD
and 443-245 yd edges. Situational edge to Minny here as they are off a bye playing their FHG (5-
3 ATS incl 2 outright upsets in new stad as DD dogs). The Gophers are no doubt one of the
surprise darlings of the country TY at 8-2 and winners of 4 str both SU/ATS. However, now they
face a bigger, stronger and faster version of themselves as the Badgers come in winners of 5 in a
row both SU/ATS. LW we easily cashed a 4H Key Selection on these pages as they crushed
Indiana (like they do each and every year) 51-3 (-24) while piling up 554 rush yds (11.1!). They
are now avg 308 ypg (7.0) on the year! On the D side, they are all’g just 99 ypg (3.1) while
Minny’s rush D has all’d 202 (5.9) the L/3 wks. The Badgers still have BCS hopes and we’re not
shying away from a tm that is 9-1 ATS TY w/their only non-cover by a 1/2 pt. They have also
owned the series and have cashed multiple key selections. Sound familiar?
FORECAST: Wisconsin by 24 over MINNESOTA

3* TENNESSEE over vanderbilt - UT’s victory over Vandy in ‘11 proved costly in ‘12. In the
lockerroom after the game Derek Dooley said basically that the one thing they do every year is
kick Vanderbilt’s butt. They were 28-1 SU in this series. LY they were a 3 pt dog at VU and
Franklin reminded his team often of those comments. VU would roll up their biggest MOV over UT
since 1954 in a 41-18 rout and it was the most pts VU had put up on UT since 1923. Vandy just
clinched bowl elig for the 3rd str ssn (1st time in schlhist) and it was a misleading gm as they got
a frontdoor cover td w/:47 left and benefitted from a +4 TO margin. They did start Carta-Samuels
at QB (out s/mid-Oct) and he went 19-24-184-0-0. UT, meanwhile is off a bye needing 2 wins to
clinch elig. They are at home where they are a much better tm as they are 4-2 (+17 ypg) incl an
upset win over SC while they are 0-4 away from home (-215 ypg). They come in off 3 str blowout
losses but most tms would lose in the same fashion to the likes of Bama/Mizzou/Auburn. This is a
legitimate revenge game for a team that won 28 of 29 and was embarrassed LY. Look for new HC
Jones to make winning back the state a priority here.
FORECAST: TENNESSEE by 10 over vanderbilt

3* HOUSTON over Cincinnati - These 2 were also CUSA members until ‘04 but their last game
was in ‘02. The visitor is only 1-5 SU. Cincy is on B2B road (8-1 ATS in 2nd str AG) and this is
their 3rd road in 4 weeks and they are 0-1 SU/ATS in trips West of the Mississippi River the L4Y.
You would think that after covering 8 of their 1st 9 gms the Cougars would finally get some
respect but that again wasn’t the case LW as we easily cashed our 7th, that’s right 7th 3H Key
Selection this year on UH as they nearly pulled a huge outright upset at L’ville losing 20-13 (+17).
Cincy was also impressive LW in a 52-17 (+1) win over Rutgers as they had a 619-357 yd edge.
Coming into the gm, however, their 9 prev opponents had a combined 17 wins and the best mark
belonged to FCS NW St at 5-5. They have still only played our #121 sked and now travel west
taking on a UH tm that has already played and covered against the likes of BYU, UCF and UL. We
would take all 3 of those squads over this overrated Cincy tm and look for the Cougs to deliver us
another winner here.
FORECAST: HOUSTON by 14 over Cincinnati

OTHER SELECTIONS
2* virginia (+) over MIAMI, FL - Al Golden was the Cavs DC from ‘01-’05. There have actually
been 6 outright upsets in this series the L9Y (dog is 7-1-1 ATS). UVA has won 3 in a row SU after
pulling upsets as 16 and 14 point dogs in ‘10 and ‘11 and LY UVA was -1 and won 41-40. UVA had
a 482-420 yd edge and they needed 2 late td’s to overcome a 10 pt deficit. UVA went 87/17pl
converting on 4&7 2x and got a 10 yd td pass with :06 left for the win. LTH UVA led 17-0 but UM
got within 7 w/9:22 left. UVA tkl’d UM at their 9 (23 yd pass) on gm’s final play to hold on to the
victory. Both tms come in reeling as UVA has lost 7 str gms and had the bye to lick their wounds
after B2B blowout losses. Meanwhile the Canes after climbing as high as #7 in the polls, have now
lost 3 str gms after LW’s 48-30 loss (-3’) to Duke. In those L/3 gms the D, which was thought to
be much improved TY, has reverted back to their 2012 form all’g an avg of 44 ppg and 536 ypg
and now they are laying 3 td’s leaving the backdoor wide open. UVA is 3-1-1 ATS off a bye in the
reg ssn under London while Canes are 2-8 ATS as a DD ACC fav.
FORECAST: Virginia (+) MIAMI, FL by 10

2* NC STATE by 1 over East Carolina - In the last meeting in ‘10, EC (+7’) led 21-0 but needed
a FG with 1:04 left to force OT where they won it. EC finishes up on B2B road and has the CUSA
East title show- down vs Marshall on deck. NCSt is in an ACC sandwich but desperately needs a
win to get some positive momentum for the future under Doeren. EC comes in winners of 4 str
gms after a 63-14 (-28) pasting of UAB where they piled up 36-17 FD and 625-354 yd edges. On
the other side, NCSt has lost 6 str gms and fell to 0-7 in the ACC for the 1st time ever after LW’s
38-21 loss (+7’) to BC. QB Thomas st’d in place of Mitchell (CS) and was 22-33-207-1-0 but they
were dominated at the LOS getting outrushed 420-35. While it’s tough to back a tm that is 0-5-1
ATS in their L/6 gms, NCSt is 11-4-1 ATS as a HD and EC’s blowout win over NC earlier TY here
gives us some value. We’ll gladly back NCSt as a home dog against a non-BCS foe that has a more important gm on deck.
FORECAST: NC STATE by 1 over East Carolina

[Can'tPickAWinner]

POWERPLAYS
4.5* HAWAII 33 WYOMING 32
4.5* nebraska 31 penn st 24
4.5* KANSAS 26 IOWA ST 24
4* NORTH TexAS 29 UTSA 17
4* HOUSTON 33 CINCINNATI 26
4* FLORIDA ST 76 IDAHO 2
4* LA TeCH (if +3 or more) 27 TULSA 27
4* MISSOURI 33 MISSISSIPPI 24
3* WISCONSIN 30 MINNESOTA 12
3* USC 43 COLORADO 14
2* OREGON 45 ARIZONA 24
2* BOWLING GREEN 47 EASTERN MICH 10
2* OKLAHOMA ST 37 (+) BAYLOR 43

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POINTWISE
COLLEGE KEY RELEASES
BOWLING GREEN over Eastern Mich RATING: 1
BAYLOR over Oklahoma State RATING: 1
RICE over Uab RATING: 2
MISSOURI over Mississippi RATING: 3
WISCONSIN over Minnesota RATING: 4
OREGON over Arizona RATING: 4
MICHIGAN STATE over Northwestern RATING: 5
IOWA over Michigan RATING: 5

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THE GREEN SHEET
COLLEGE KEY SELECTIONS
RATING 5 UCLA (+2½) over Arizona State
RATING 4 CENTRAL MICHIGAN (-8½) over UMass
RATING 3 MEMPHIS (+24½) over Louisville
RATING 2 IOWA STATE (-6) over Kansas
RATING 2 MICHIGAN STATE (-7½) over Northwestern
RATING 1 TEMPLE (-8½) over Connecticut
RATING 1 VIRGINIA (+19½) over Miami, FL

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Dave Cokin:

119 Illinois -6.5
141 Boston College pk
151 Vanderbilt +2.5
157 Hawaii +6
163 Arizona State -2.5
195/96 New Mexico/Fresno State Over 66

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Line Moves - Week 13
By Chris David

Week 12 Recap

Favorites: 5-0 (5-0 SU)
Underdogs: 0-2 (0-2 SU)
Totals: 3-2

For the first time all season, gamblers following the line moves saw the favorites go 5-0 both straight up and against the spread last week. For the most part, the victories were never in doubt as Wisconsin, Florida Atlantic, East Carolina, Baylor and Boise State rolled. The underdogs went 0-2 and we feel bad for the professionals who took Northwestern. The Wildcats were in position to snap their five-game losing streak to Michigan but a late field goal forced overtime and head coach Pat Fitzgerald's team came up short once again. Since Northwestern collapsed against Ohio State in early October, it has dropped six straight games and needs to win out to become bowl eligible. The totals went 1-4 last week, a couple of the moves proved to be correct, in particular the Connecticut-SMU and West Virginia-Kansas matchups.

Week 13 Line Moves

CRIS, one of the biggest offshore sportsbooks, opened up their college football lines for Week 13 last Sunday. Below are all of the moves of at least “Three Points” or more off the opening line from CRIS.

Favorites

Ohio State vs. Indiana
Open: Buckeyes -31½
Friday: Buckeyes -34½

Central Michigan vs. Massachusetts
Open: Chippewas -8½
Friday: Chippewas -12

Stanford vs. California
Open: Cardinal -28½
Friday: Cardinal -31½

Boise State at San Diego State
Open: Broncos -7½
Friday: Broncos -4½

Week 13 Total Moves

CRIS opened their ‘over/under’ numbers on Tuesday and there was only one game that saw any significant movement this week.

Texas A&M at LSU
Open: 70
Friday: 73

[Can'tPickAWinner]

JOE GAVAZZI
College FB
Ohio St. (-34) Noon ET ABC from Joe Gavazzi Winning Sports Advice
Top 5 BCS teams must always lay inflated number in November. In this case, however, due to the
hot start this season by Indiana, this number is little more than a TD higher than where it would
have been to open the season. Last week, Indiana suited up against Wisconsin without RB
Coleman, their best runner, who is again expected to miss this game. Indiana was outrushed 554-
102 in their annual 51-3 drubbing at the hands of the Badgers. Meanwhile, Ohio St. was costing
themselves style points in allowing 35 points to the Illini. Yet, the Buckeyes still had a resounding
victory of 60-35 outrushing the Illini 441-132. That poor defensive performance has made life miserable
for many Ohio St. defenders in this week’s Columbus practices. Expect a resounding
Ohio St. victory as the Buckeyes win their 23rd consecutive game under HC Meyer. In so doing,
consider the streaks that will be extended. Ohio St. is currently on an 11-3 ATS run, has a long
term record of 47-22 ATS vs. the Big 10 (10-4 ATS under Meyer), and is on a run of 12-4 ATS
laying 23 or more points. No defensive apathy from the Buckeyes this week, knowing they allowed
the Hoosiers 49 points last year.

Florida St. (-57) 3:30 ET ESPNU
Potential legal issues for Sem QB Winston did not appear to negatively impact his performance in
last week’s 59-3 wipeout of Syracuse. Style points continue to be a priority for this team with a
realization that a National Championship season has real potential. The Seminoles are now 10-0
ATS as home favorite of 14 or more points with a cover margin of 16 PPG. Key factor of coverage
is that the second team of Florida St. is still notably better than Idaho.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Brian Leonard

East Carolina

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Stephen Nover

129 East Carolina / 130 N.C. State OVER double-dime bet

169 Texas A&M 5.5(-110) double-dime bet

159 W. Kentucky -5.0(-110) double-dime bet

[Can'tPickAWinner]

College football line watch: Don't miss Ducks below key number
By STEVE MERRIL

Each week during the college football season, Covers Expert Steve Merril looks at the NCAAF odds and tells you which spread to bet now, which one to bet later, and which total to watch as the week plays out.

Spread to bet now

Oregon Ducks (-20.5) at Arizona Wildcats

The spread on this game opened too low at -17.5 and sharp bettors quickly pumped this line up a full three points to the current number. The public will pile on as well and we fully expect this line to be well over three touchdowns soon. Obviously 21 is a key number in football so if you like Oregon, bet this game ASAP.

Oregon is never shy to run up the score on their opponents and they know they need to do it in this game. Arizona is ripe for the picking after its home loss to Washington State last week.

All nine of Oregon’s wins this season have come by 21 points or more. So again, laying less than 21 points is imperative in this game. Lay the 20.5 now with Oregon before the line hits the key number.

Spread to wait on

USC Trojans at Colorado Buffaloes (+22.5)

The line opened with USC as a 21.5-point road favorite but it was quickly bet up to the current price. With more money to come in on the Trojans, Buffs backers can get Colorado +24 right before kickoff.

This is a terrible situational and scheduling spot for USC. The Trojans are off their upset win over Stanford, snapping a four-game losing streak to the Cardinal. After this game, USC will return home to face rival UCLA. The Trojans will have little focus on Colorado considering they’ve crushed the Buffaloes by a combined score of 92-23 in the last two meetings.

Colorado got a confidence-building blowout win last week, so they’ll come into this game on a positive note. Colorado couldn’t have asked for a better setup and, with the expectation of more money to come in on USC, we suggest waiting and grabbing +24 on the Buffaloes the minute it becomes available.

Total to watch

Baylor Bears at Oklahoma State Cowboys (78)

Can the oddsmakers make the total high enough for Baylor this season? Last week, the total was 84 versus Texas Tech and it easily eclipsed that number with 97 points scored.

Baylor’s game this week at Oklahoma State will be a difficult one to set for the oddsmakers. The Bears need style points to jump in the BCS standings, currently sitting No. 4 in the rankings. They’ve scored 63 points or more in six of their nine games and 59 points or more in seven games. They’ve scored 35 points or more in every game this season.

Everybody knows about the Baylor offense, but their defense has gone unnoticed. The Bears have held six of their nine opponents to 14 points or less. Oklahoma State has the reputation of a high-powered offense under Mike Gundy but the Cowboys’ strength this season has been their defense. They’ve held five opponents to 13 points or less.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Beyond the BCS: Big profits from NCAAF small conferences
By DOC'S SPORTS

Some of the best betting value in college football is hiding beyond the BCS, in the small conferences. Each week, Covers Experts’ Doc’s Sports will look at the little programs that could help you make big cash this college season.

Team to watch: East Carolina Pirates (8-2 SU, 5-5 ATS)

This week: -6.5 at North Carolina State

East Carolina has to be feeling good about itself at 8-2, which includes a current four-game winning streak in which it is beating opponents by an average of 36.25 points. It has to be feeling even better about getting to play North Carolina State Saturday.

The Wolfpack are 3-7 and one loss to Maryland away from their first winless ACC season since 1959. Don’t be fooled by N.C. State’s decent-looking pass defense (209.7 yards per game), which is going up against the strength of East Carolina (341.2 yards per game). The team is often getting blown out by halftime, at which point opponents resort to keeping the ball on the ground.

Quarterback Brandon Mitchell missed his sixth game of the season in last week’s loss to Boston College and the Wolfpack used three different signal-callers in his absence. Defensive tackle A.J. Ferguson is also questionable for NCSU with an undisclosed injury.

Team to beware: San Diego State Aztecs (6-4 SU, 5-5 ATS)

This week: +7 vs. Boise State

San Diego State has won three in a row but it has won those games by an average of 5.3 points, despite playing two of the three worst teams in the Mountain West Conference in Hawaii and New Mexico. Starting safety Gabe Lemon is likely still out with a neck stinger. Defensive tackle Sam Meredith returned last week from missing two games with a torn right labrum, but he is far from 100 percent.

Boise State is faring just fine without quarterback Joe Southwick, who suffered a broken ankle on Oct. 19. In his first two games, replacement Grant Hedrick threw one touchdown and two interceptions. In his last two, however, he tossed eight scores compared to only one pick in wins over Colorado State and Wyoming.

Total team: Wyoming Cowboys (4-6 SU, 5-5 O/U)

This week: 62 vs. Hawaii

After allowing 23 points or fewer in three of its first four games, Wyoming has given up at least 31 points in each of its last six, including at least 48 points in four straight contests. The Cowboys moved from a 4-3 defensive scheme to a 3-4 and they rarely bring more than the minimum number of pass rushers while basically refusing to play press coverage on wide receivers at the line of scrimmage.

They are facing Hawaii running back Joey Iosefa, who has 72 carries for 341 yards and two touchdowns in his past two outings. The good news is that Hawaii’s run defense (201.4 ypg) is almost as bad as Wyoming’s (236.3). Wyoming is averaging 196 rushing yards per game. This has shootout written all over it.