11-30-13

[Can'tPickAWinner]

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Saturday's NCAAF Top 25 betting cheat sheet: Afternoon action

Florida State Seminoles at Florida Gators (+27.5, 44)

The task for host Florida is simple - knock No. 2 Florida State from the ranks of the unbeaten Saturday in the annual Thanksgiving weekend matchup between the rivals. Embattled Florida State quarterback Jameis Winston seemed no worse for wear in throwing for 225 yards and four touchdowns as the Seminoles broke a school record by scoring 80 points against Idaho. The freshman has thrown for 3,163 yards and 32 touchdowns this season.

The Gators have won seven of the last nine meetings but come in off one of the worst defeats in program history against FCS program Georgia Southern. As if the losses were not enough, the Gators also will see a lot streaks come to an end this season, including 22 straight years of playing in a bowl game. The six-game losing streak is their longest in 34 years and assures them of their first losing season since 1979.

LINE: Florida State is a 27.5-point fave after opening as low as -26. The total is steady at 44
WEATHER: Temperatures will be in the low-70s with wind blowing across the field at 6 mph.
TRENDS:

* Seminoles are 4-0 ATS in their last four games.
* Gators are 3-10 ATS in their last 13 November games.
* Under is 4-0 in the last four meetings in Florida.

Ohio State Buckeyes at Michigan Wolverines (+16, 57)

While quarterback Braxton Miller has generated a lot of the headlines around Columbus, the Buckeyes' running game ranks first in the Big Ten and fifth nationally with 314 yards per game. Carlos Hyde (1,064 yards, 13 TDs) is the first running back ever to rush for 1,000 yards under Meyer, while Miller is the school's all-time leading rusher among quarterbacks with 2,724 yards.

Michigan has lost three of its last four contests, including a 24-21 defeat to Iowa last week in which Brady Hoke's team squandered a 14-point halftime lead. Still, the Wolverines' head coach remains optimistic heading into their showdown with the Buckeyes, saying earlier this week: "I am very confident that we can win, or we wouldn't play." Michigan's defense has been inconsistent this season, but Blake Countess leads the conference with five interceptions.

LINE: Ohio State opened as a 12-point fave, but the line has been bet up to -16. The total is set at 58.
WEATHER: Temperatures will be in the low-30s with wind blowing diagonally out of the SE at 7 mph.
TRENDS:

* Buckeyes are 10-3-1 ATS in their last 14 games following a SU win.
* Wolverines are 5-1 ATS in their last six games following a SU loss.
* Ohio State is 6-0 ATS in the last six meetings.

Minnesota Golden Gophers at Michigan State Spartans (-16, 41)

The Golden Gophers managed only four yards rushing against the Spartans last season, but David Cobb did not get a carry. The junior has emerged in 2013 with 1,010 yards and seven of his team’s 23 touchdowns on the ground, while quarterbacks Philip Nelson and Mitch Leidner have combined for 13. Leidner has not played the past two weeks while Nelson has thrown seven touchdown passes and no interceptions over the last five.

The Spartans, who play unbeaten Ohio State for the Big Ten title and a Rose Bowl bid on Dec. 7 in Indianapolis, have shut out five of their seven league opponents in the second half. Their offense has steadily improved with Cook at the helm and three receivers – Bennie Fowler, Tony Lippett and Macgarrett Kings Jr. – making at least 30 catches.

LINE: Michigan State is currently a 16-point fave, with the total steady at 41.
WEATHER: Temperatures will be in the low-30s with wind blowing across the length of the field at 9 mph.
TRENDS:

* Golden Gophers are 13-3 ATS in their last 16 November games.
* Spartans are 4-0 ATS in their last four conference games.
* Underdog is 10-2 ATS in the last 12 meetings.

Duke Blue Devils at North Carolina Tar Heels (-6, 60.5)

Blue Devils quarterback Anthony Boone is clicking again again after missing three games with a broken collarbone. He was less-than-spectacular upon his return, putting Brandon Connette back in the picture in a platoon role, but Boone took most of the snaps Saturday, throwing for 256 yards and three touchdowns with no turnovers or sacks.

North Carolina tight end Eric Ebron has pieced together a strong junior season, leading the team with 50 catches for 774 yards and three touchdowns. Things have gone so well for Ebron that he has decided to enter the NFL Draft next year and forego his final year of eligibility. His best game came against then-unbeaten Miami last month, when he grabbed eight passes for 199 yards and a 71-yard touchdown in the 27-23 loss.

LINE: North Carolina opened -5.5 but is up to -6. The total is set at 60.5.
WEATHER: Temperatures will be in the mid-40s with wind blowing diagonally out of the NE at 5 mph.
TRENDS:

* Blue Devils are 6-0 ATS in their last six conference games.
* Tar Heels are 6-0 ATS in their last six games on grass.
* Home team is 4-0 ATS in the last four meetings.

Alabama Crimson Tide at Auburn Tigers (+10.5, 54.5)

The early-season concerns about the Crimson Tide's defense have proven unfounded, as Alabama ranks third in the nation in total defense (263.9 yards per game) and leads the country at 9.3 points allowed per contest. The offense is often downplayed, but quarterback A.J. McCarron is enjoying another outstanding season, completing 68.6 percent of his passes for 2,399 yards with 23 touchdowns and five interceptions.

The Tigers boast the top ground game in the SEC with Tre Mason (1,153 yards, 17 TDs) and quarterback Nick Marshall (823 yards, nine TDs) leading the way, but they know they'll need to be more balanced against a tough Alabama defense. Auburn can't afford a slow start that would force it to the passing game, so the sometimes-suspect defense must slow down the Crimson Tide early.

LINE: Alabama is holding as a 10.5-point fave, while the total is 54.5.
WEATHER: Temperatures will be in the high-40s with wind blowing across the field at 8 mph.
TRENDS:

* Crimson Tide are 3-8-1 ATS in their last 12 November games.
* Tigers are 6-0 ATS in their last six conference games.
* Under is 5-0-1 in Auburn's last six games following a bye week.

Baylor Bears at TCU Horned Frogs (+13, 64.5)

The Bears were hopeful leading rusher Lache Seastrunk would be ready to return from a groin injury that kept him sidelined the previous week against Texas Tech, but he was a no-go against Oklahoma State and the running game suffered, totaling just 94 rushing yards. Making things more difficult, third-leading rusher Glasco Martin has missed the last two games with a leg injury.

B.J. Catalon is on pace to become the first TCU player to lead the team in rushing in consecutive seasons since Joseph Turner led the Horned Frogs in three straight years from 2007-09. He and sophomore Aaron Green figure to get even more carries now that third-leading rusher Waymon James is no longer on the roster, though coach Gary Patterson would not reveal why at his weekly press conference Monday.

LINE: Baylor opened at -13 while the total is up a half-point to 64.5.
WEATHER: Temperatures will be in the mid-50s with wind blowing out of the SW at 7 mph.
TRENDS:

* Bears are 21-6 ATS in their last 27 games.
* Horned Frogs are 8-0 ATS in their last eight games following a bye week.
* Under is 9-2 in TCU's last 11 conference games.

Penn State Nittany Lions at Wisconsin Badgers (-24.5, 49.5)

Zach Zwinak had 149 rushing yards in last Saturday’s 23-20 loss to Nebraska and has put together three consecutive 100-yard outings to push his season total to 874 yards. Freshman quarterback Christian Hackenberg has fared well with 2,616 yards – fifth most in school history – and has 16 touchdown passes against 10 interceptions.

A strong defense that ranks fifth in scoring defense (13.4) and sixth in total defense (278.5) complements the rushing attack that is 34 yards away from surpassing last season’s school record for rushing yards (3,309). Star linebacker Chris Borland is eight tackles away from his third consecutive 100-tackle campaign and ranks sixth in school history with 400 stops while equaling the Big Ten record with 14 career forced fumbles.

LINE: Wisconsin is a 24.5-point fave after opening at -23.5. The total is set at 49 1/2.
WEATHER: Temperatures will be in the low-30s with wind blowing diagonally out of the SW at 7 mph.
TRENDS:

* Nittany Lions are 7-1 ATS in their last eight games following a SU loss.
* Badgers are 13-3-1 ATS in their last 17 games on fieldturf.
* Favorite is 8-0 ATS in the last eight meetings.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Saturday's NCAAF Top 25 betting cheat sheet: Evening action

Clemson Tigers at South Carolina Gamecocks (-5.5, 58)

The Tigers are flying on offense since scoring just 14 points in the loss to Florida State, averaging 51.5 points during their four-game winning streak. Quarterback Tajh Boyd threw five touchdown passes in last week’s 52-6 rout of The Citadel, giving him 102 for his career. Clemson ranks 18th nationally in scoring defense (20.2) and defensive end Vic Beasley is tied for second in the ACC with 10 sacks.

The Gamecocks have allowed 54 points during their four-game winning streak, 24 of those coming in a two-overtime victory at Missouri, and are 17th nationally in passing yards allowed per game (200.7). Jadeveon Clowney had 4.5 sacks in last season’s 27-17 victory at Clemson. South Carolina averages 465.8 yards of total offense and need 375 yards to match the school record of 5,499 yards set in 2010.

LINE: Clemson has dropped a half-point from its -6 opener, while the total is set at 58.
WEATHER: Temperatures will be in the low-40s with partly cloudy skies.
TRENDS:

* Tigers are 1-4 ATS in their last five games vs. teams with winning records.
* Gamecocks are 6-1 in their last seven games vs. ACC opponents.
* Under is 5-0 at South Carolina in its last five games vs. the ACC.

Notre Dame Fighting Irish at Stanford Cardinal (-14.5, 49)

Stanford has one of the nation's top rushing defenses, but Notre Dame is coming off a 235-yard rushing performance highlighted by Cam McDaniel's career-high 117. Last week's win against BYU was played in temperatures in the 20s with swirling winds and intermittent snow, but Irish quarterback Tommy Rees still threw for 235 yards and a touchdown in his final home game.

Cardinal quarterback Kevin Hogan has yet to complete 20 passes in a game this season, but he is 14-2 as a starter for his career, including an 8-0 mark against ranked opponents. Of course, it helps to have a weapon like Ty Montgomery, who matched the school record with five touchdowns in last week's win against Cal. "It's awesome," Hogan said, "just getting him the ball and he makes me look good."

LINE: Stanford is a 14.5-point favorite after opening at -14. The total is steady at 49.
WEATHER: Temperatures will be in the high-50s with clear skies.
TRENDS:

* Fighting Irish are 2-5-1 ATS in their last eight games following a SU win.
* Cardinal are 22-3-1 ATS in their last 26 games after scoring more than 40 points in their previous contest.
* Under is 5-2 in the last seven meetings.

Texas A&M Aggies at Missouri Tigers (-5, 66.5)

Johnny Manziel has dropped down in the Heisman discussion after his poor performance against LSU, but that doesn’t mean Missouri shouldn’t be afraid of what the Aggies signal caller can do. He put up 439 total yards and five touchdowns a year ago against the Tigers in a 59-29 rout that all but sealed his Heisman campaign. That seems like a long time ago for an Aggies' team that is allowing a league-high 460.1 yards per game.

For a Missouri program that has been defined by its offense in the Gary Pinkel era, the Tigers have been led by their defense this year. The pass rush leads the SEC with 35 sacks, 10 of which belong to defensive end Michael Sam, also a league high. Offensively, quarterback James Franklin proved himself healthy last week against Ole Miss, throwing for 142 yards and rushing for 42 after missing four games with a shoulder injury.

LINE: Missouri has jumped from a 4.5-point to a 5-point fave. The total is steady at 66.5.
WEATHER: Temperatures will be in the low-40s with partly cloudy skies.
TRENDS:

* Aggies are 6-0 ATS in their last six games following a SU loss.
* Tigers are 12-3-1 ATS in their last 16 games.
* Over is 5-2 in the last seven meetings.

UCLA Bruins at USC Trojans (-3.5, 51.5)

Brett Hundley has thrown at least one touchdown pass in 24 of his 25 career games, including all 11 contests this season, and has completed 70.1 percent of his passes over the last four games. The Bruins' defense has been a terror in the third quarter this season, holding its opponents to a total of 34 points. Overall, 20 points continues to be the magic number for UCLA, as the Bruins have won 20 straight games when holding their opponent under 20.

USC will be honoring 20 seniors, although the Trojans are fortunate that Javorius Allen (439 rushing yards, nine TDs in his last four games) is not among them and will be back in 2014. Fellow sophomore Cody Kessler has not thrown for 300 yards in any game this season, but he has nine touchdown passes against only two interceptions over his last seven games.

LINE: UCLA is a steady 3.5-point fave, with the total up a half-point to 51.5.
WEATHER: Temperatures will be in the mid-60s with wind blowing across the field at 6 mph.
TRENDS:

* Bruins are 8-3 ATS in their last 11 games following an ATS loss.
* Trojans are 5-1 ATS in their last six conference games.
* Home team is 8-2 ATS in the last 10 meetings.

Arizona Wildcats at Arizona State Sun Devils (-11.5, 60.5)

Arizona's Ka'Deem Carey rushed for 206 yards and scored a touchdown in each quarter in last week's win over the Ducks. Carey, on the Heisman radar, has 1,559 yards and 16 TDs on the season and has rushed for over 100 yards in 14 straight games. Quarterback B.J. Denker had a career day last week completing 19-of-22 passes for 189 yards while rushing for another 102 as the Wildcats snapped a two-game losing streak.

The Sun Devils have won six straight and are 6-0 at home this year with an average margin of victory of 26.8 points per game. Marion Grice, who is four yards shy of 1,000 on the season, left last week's game against UCLA on crutches and is questionable. If he can't go, the nation's 10th-highest scoring offense (41.9 points) is still confident in backups Deantre Lewis and D.J. Foster.

LINE: The opening line of Arizona State -12 has been bet down to -11.5. The total is set at 60 1/2.
WEATHER: Temperatures will be in the mid-50s with clear skies.
TRENDS:

* Wildcats are 1-4 ATS in their last five games following a SU win.
* Sun Devils are 4-1 ATS in their last five games on grass.
* Under is 5-0 in the last five meetings at Arizona State.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Alabama at Auburn: What bettors need to know

Alabama Crimson Tide at Auburn Tigers (+10.5, 54.5)

Fans have been camped out since last weekend in anticipation of the latest installment of a bitter rivalry, as No. 5 Auburn hosts No. 1 Alabama on Saturday with a trip to the SEC Championship on the line. As if an in-state rivalry dating to 1893 weren't enough, the victor will remain in the national championship discussion. The winner of the Iron Bowl has won the BCS national championship the past four seasons.

Both teams are enjoying charmed seasons - Alabama has claimed nine of its 11 games by 21 points or more, and Auburn has won seven straight since a 35-21 loss at LSU. "We don't think we've played our best game," Auburn defensive lineman Nosa Eguae told reporters. "We know that game is still out there for us." They'll likely have to find it Saturday to knock off the Crimson Tide, who have won the last two meetings 42-14 and 49-0 and did not allow an offensive touchdown in either game.

TV: 3:30 p.m. ET, CBS.

LINE: The line opened at Auburn +10.5, and jumped slightly to +11, but has since come back down to +10.5. The total hasn't moved from 54.5.

WEATHER: Temperature will be in the mid 50s with a 5 mph wind blowing across the field.

ABOUT ALABAMA (11-0, 6-4-1 ATS): The early-season concerns about the Crimson Tide's defense have proven unfounded, as Alabama ranks third in the nation in total defense (263.9 yards per game) and leads the country at 9.3 points allowed per contest. The offense is often downplayed, but quarterback A.J. McCarron is enjoying another outstanding season, completing 68.6 percent of his passes for 2,399 yards with 23 touchdowns and five interceptions. Leading rusher T.J. Yeldon (1,022 yards, 12 TDs) sat out last week's 49-0 win over Tennessee-Chattanooga with a toe injury but is expected to play.

ABOUT AUBURN (10-1, 9-2 ATS): The Tigers boast the top ground game in the SEC with Tre Mason (1,153 yards, 17 TDs) and quarterback Nick Marshall (823 yards, nine TDs) leading the way, but they know they'll need to be more balanced against a tough Alabama defense. Auburn can't afford a slow start that would force it to the passing game, so the sometimes-suspect defense must slow down the Crimson Tide early. If the Tigers are going to pull off the upset, they might need a big play on special teams from returner Chris Davis, who leads the nation in punt return average at 22.5 yards including an 85-yard touchdown at Tennessee.

TRENDS:

* Over is 3-1-1 in the last five meetings in Auburn.
* Favorite is 6-2 ATS in their last eight meetings.
* Under is 9-4-1 in the last 14 meetings.
* Alabama is 1-4 ATS in its last five road games versus a team with a winning home record.

EXTRA POINTS:

1. Alabama has won 18 straight away from home, the longest active streak in the FBS and one shy of the longest such streak in school history.

2. Auburn has scored at least 30 points in seven consecutive games for the first time since 1994. The Tigers have won 86 consecutive games when hitting the 30-point mark.

3. Already the school record holder in passing yards (8,355) and passing touchdowns (72), McCarron needs 16 completions to break John Parker Wilson's school mark of 665.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Ohio State at Michigan: What bettors need to know

Ohio State Buckeyes at Michigan Wolverines (+16, 57)

Ohio State has enjoyed one of the best seasons in school history, but for the Buckeyes, no outstanding campaign can be complete without a win over Michigan. The third-ranked Buckeyes, riding the longest winning streak in the nation, visit the Wolverines on Saturday for the 110th meeting in the historic rivalry. Ohio State has won a school-record 23 consecutive games and taken nine of the last 11 meetings with Michigan, which is scuffling to the finish line this season.

The Buckeyes, who rank third in the nation in points (48.7) and eighth in points allowed (18.4), already have clinched a spot in next week's Big Ten championship game against Michigan State. Still, Ohio State knows that a loss to Michigan would ruin its national title hopes, as it currently sits third in the BCS standings, desperately needing either Alabama or Florida State to lose. "It is different. It's not just another game. It's not," Buckeyes coach Urban Meyer said, vowing to remain focused on the Wolverines. "Our players know that. ... There is an extra pep in the step."

TV: Noon ET, ABC.

LINE: The line opened with the Wolverines as 12-point home dogs and has since jumped four points to +16. The total opened at 58 and has dropped to 57.

WEATHER: Temperatures will be in the mid 30s with a 10 mph wind blowing towards the North end zone.

ABOUT OHIO STATE (11-0, 6-4-1 ATS): While quarterback Braxton Miller has generated a lot of the headlines around Columbus, the Buckeyes' running game ranks first in the Big Ten and fifth nationally with 314 yards per game. Carlos Hyde (1,064 yards, 13 TDs) is the first running back ever to rush for 1,000 yards under Meyer, while Miller is the school's all-time leading rusher among quarterbacks with 2,724 yards. Linebacker Ryan Shazier, who leads the Big Ten with 108 tackles, headlines a fierce defense that has allowed 14 points or less in three of its last four games.

ABOUT MICHIGAN (7-4, 6-5 ATS): Michigan has lost three of its last four contests, including a 24-21 defeat to Iowa last week in which Brady Hoke's team squandered a 14-point halftime lead. Still, the Wolverines' head coach remains optimistic heading into their showdown with the Buckeyes, saying earlier this week: "I am very confident that we can win, or we wouldn't play." Michigan's defense has been inconsistent this season, but Blake Countess leads the conference with five interceptions.

TRENDS:

* Ohio State is 6-0 ATS in its last six meetings.
* Ohio State is 4-0 ATS in its last four meetings in Michigan.
* Favorite is 5-1 ATS in their last six meetings.
* Michigan is 5-1 ATS in its last six games following a SU loss.

EXTRA POINTS:

1. Ohio State defeated Michigan 26-20 last season but still trails the all-time series 58-45-6.

2. The Wolverines have ruined the Buckeyes' hopes for an undefeated season five times, the last coming when they upset a 10-0 Ohio State team in 1996.

3. Michigan WR Jeremy Gallon needs one catch to tie Steve Breaston (156) for fifth place on the school's all-time receptions list. The fifth-year senior has made at least one catch in 37 straight games.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Clemson at South Carolina: What bettors need to know

Clemson Tigers at South Carolina Gamecocks (-5.5, 58)

Clemson and South Carolina have met 110 times in a series dating to 1896, but when the fourth-ranked Tigers visit the ninth-ranked Gamecocks on Saturday, it will mark the first time both schools have met while ranked in the top 10. Beyond bragging rights in the Palmetto State for the next year, there are heavy BCS bowl implications on the line. The Tigers look destined to reach the Orange Bowl provided Florida State - the only team to beat Clemson this season - reaches the national championship game, while South Carolina could end up in the Sugar Bowl.

The series has been dominated by South Carolina of late, with the Gamecocks winning the past four matchups by a combined 124-54. Two junior stars projected to be top-10 picks in next spring’s NFL draft look to shine in the regular-season finale. Clemson wide receiver Sammy Watkins leads the ACC with seven 100-yard receiving games and is a finalist for the Biletnikoff Award, while South Carolina defensive end Jadeveon Clowney has 23 career sacks.

TV: 7 p.m. ET, ESPN2.

LINE: The line has been steady at -5.5 and the total also hasn't moved from 58.

WEATHER: There is a 10 percent chance of rain with temperatures in the mid 40s.

ABOUT CLEMSON (10-1, 6-5 ATS): The Tigers are flying on offense since scoring just 14 points in the loss to Florida State, averaging 51.5 points during their four-game winning streak. Quarterback Tajh Boyd threw five touchdown passes in last week’s 52-6 rout of The Citadel, giving him 102 for his career. Clemson ranks 18th nationally in scoring defense (20.2) and defensive end Vic Beasley is tied for second in the ACC with 10 sacks.

ABOUT SOUTH CAROLINA (9-2, 5-6 ATS): The Gamecocks have allowed 54 points during their four-game winning streak, 24 of those coming in a two-overtime victory at Missouri, and are 17th nationally in passing yards allowed per game (200.7). Clowney had 4.5 sacks in last season’s 27-17 victory at Clemson. South Carolina averages 465.8 yards of total offense and need 375 yards to match the school record of 5,499 yards set in 2010.

TRENDS:

* Clemson is 0-4 ATS in its last four meetings.
* South Carolina is 6-1 ATS in its last seven versus the ACC.
* Over is 4-1 in Clemson's last five games overall.
* Under is 5-0 in South Carolina's last five games overall.

EXTRA POINTS:

1. The Gamecocks own the nation’s longest current home winning streak at 18 games.

2. Clemson K Chandler Catanzaro is second in ACC history in points (395) and sixth in field goals (66).

3. The Tigers lead the all-time series 65-41-4.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Texas A&M at Missouri: What bettors need to know

Texas A&M Aggies at Missouri Tigers (-5, 66.5)

As the regular season comes to a close, only a visit from Heisman Trophy winner Johnny Manziel and No. 21 Texas A&M stand in the way of No. 5 Missouri and the SEC Championship game. The Tigers have been the surprise of the conference this season, following an injury-riddled 5-7 campaign with a 10-1 start in their second year of SEC play behind a balanced offense and a fierce pass rush. The Aggies took their turn as the hot newcomer last season, riding Manziel to a Cotton Bowl win, but have struggled defensively this season, especially against the run, ranking 107th nationally at 221 yards allowed per game.

The Tigers will to exploit that with their talented trio of running backs, led by Henry Josey (6.1 yards per carry, 12 touchdowns). If Missouri needs a blueprint to stop Manziel, it doesn’t need to look further than last week, when LSU used a conservative containment approach to hold the Aggies to 299 total yards and 10 points, both lows in the Manziel-Kevin Sumlin era. For a Texas A&M team that has played virtually no defense all year long, those kind of numbers offensively will continue to spell trouble.

TV: 7:45 p.m. ET, ESPN.

LINE: The line opened at -4.5, dropped to -4, then jumped up to -5. The total has held firm at 66.5.

WEATHER: There is a 10 percent chance of rain with temperatures in the low 40s.

ABOUT TEXAS A&M (8-3, 5-6 ATS): Manziel has dropped down in the Heisman discussion after his poor performance against LSU, but that doesn’t mean Missouri shouldn’t be afraid of what the Aggies signal caller can do. He put up 439 total yards and five touchdowns a year ago against the Tigers in a 59-29 rout that all but sealed his Heisman campaign. That seems like a long time ago for an Aggies' team that is allowing a league-high 460.1 yards per game, forcing all of the pressure onto Manziel.

ABOUT MISSOURI (10-1, 9-1-1 ATS): For a Missouri program that has been defined by its offense in the Gary Pinkel era, the Tigers have been led by their defense this year. The pass rush leads the SEC with 35 sacks, 10 of which belong to defensive end Michael Sam, also a league high. Offensively, quarterback James Franklin proved himself healthy last week against Ole Miss, throwing for 142 yards and rushing for 42 after missing four games with a shoulder injury.

TRENDS:

* Over is 5-2 in the last seven meetings.
* Texas A&M is 1-5 ATS in its last six conference games.
* Missouri is 6-1 ATS in its last seven conference games.
* Under is 4-1 in Missouri's last five home games.

EXTRA POINTS:

1. With a win, Pinkel will tie Don Faurot as the all-time winningest coach in program history with 101 victories.

2. Due to scheduling quirks related to conference realignment, the teams met in College Station in each of the last three seasons.

3. Missouri is one of five schools ranked in the Top 15 nationally in both scoring offense and scoring defense.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

English Breakfast: Premier League betting cheat sheet

Forget Champions League and Europa League. Premier League football is back this weekend with six matches on the board Saturday.

Aston Villa v Sunderland (+105, +240, +320)

Why bet Aston Villa: A short week for the Villains as the club posted a decent 2-2 draw at West Brom Monday. Villa has not lost in its previous three matches in the league and, as we saw Monday, the return of Fabian Delph and Andreas Weimann from injury injects creativity and skill in the Villains' attack. Expect more on the weekend.

Key players out/doubtful: Jores Okore, Charles N'Zogbia, Joe Bennett, Gary Gardner

Why bet Sunderland: With just one point in six matches away from home, the Black Cats are the worst road club in the League. But it's hard to imagine with the clubs they've put to the sword recently (Man City, Newcastle). There is no question that they are playing better football under Gus Poyet, but it's time for players like Jozy Altidore to pick up the scoring slack that has marred the side thus far.

Key players out/doubtful: Carlos Cuéllar

2012-13 fixture result: Aston Villa 6, Sunderland 1

Key betting note: Sunderland has not scored in their last four matches away from home.

Cardiff v Arsenal (+550, +300, -163)

Why bet Cardiff: The Welsh soccer gods smiled on Cardiff last week as a last minute goal by Kim Bo-Kyung salvaged a draw with Manchester United. The home crowd will be buzzing once again with the top club in the league in town. It will be tough for the Bluebirds, but with confidence high and the side looking to climb out of the bottom quarter of the table, don't expect them to roll over.

Key players out/doubtful: Rudy Gestede

Why bet Arsenal: A win over hot Southampton last week erased memories of a hard 1-0 loss away to Man United. An incredibly-easy brace by striker Olivier Giroud upped the Frenchman's goal tally to seven on the season. Theo Walcott made his return in the aforementioned victory, but will probably start from the bench Saturday. How do you replace the attacking midfield triumvirate of Jack Wilshere, Santi Cazorla and Mesut Ozil?

Key players out/doubtful: Lukas Podolski, Alex Oxlade-Chamberlain, Ryo Miyaichi, Yaya Sanogo

2012-13 fixture result: N/A

Key betting note: The Gunners have played under the 2.5 goal total in four-straight matches.

Everton v Stoke (-163, +300, +525)

Why bet Everton: The Toffees don't lose a whole lot, but they've been a draw machine recently. Everton has drawn in three-straight matches and has yet to lose at Goodison Park this season. Romelu Lukaku was a man possessed in last week's 3-3 draw in the Merseyside Derby, scoring the second and third goals.

Key players out/doubtful: Darron Gibson, Leighton Baines, Arouna Koné

Why bet Stoke: Undefeated in three games, the Potters posted a very good 2-0 victory over Sunderland their last time out. Stoke needs momentum and building on that victory over the Black Cats is a good place to start. If anything, the Potters get scoring from all positions. Only Charlie Adam has more than one goal, despite the side tallying 12 on the campaign.

Key players out/doubtful: Marc Wilson, Kenwyne Jones

2012-13 fixture result: Everton 1, Stoke 0

Key betting note: Stoke has just one point in its previous four away matches.

Norwich v Crystal Palace (+100, +240, +333)

Why bet Norwich: Basically, the Canaries are the lesser of two evils here. They sit 16th with 11 points and are coming off a disappointing 2-1 loss to Newcastle last time out. They've managed just three wins on the season, but two of those have come at home at Carrow Road.

Key players out/doubtful: Ricky van Wolfswinkel, Alexander Tettey, Elliott Bennett, Anthony Pilkington, Robert Snodgrass

Why bet Crystal Palace: Because if any of these two is 'hotter', it's Palace. The Eagles are coming off a 1-0 victory in their last effort and drew with Everton in the previous game. New gaffer Tony Pulis could spark the club to get out of the doldrums of the table and three points in Norwich will go a long way.

Key players out/doubtful: Adlène Guédioura, Marouane Chamakh, Yannick Bolasie, Jerome Thomas

2012-13 fixture result: N/A

Key betting note: Norwich has played over the 2.5 total in five of its last six Premier League games.

West Ham v Fulham (-118, +250, +400)

Why bet West Ham: Remember when the Hammers hammered Tottenahm 3-0? Well, that's a distant memory as the club has just two goals in five matches since. They were dispatched 3-0 by Chelsea in their last match, so really, there's nowhere to go but up. Hosting Fulham, who is on the worst run of form in the league, is a perfect prescription.

Key players out/doubtful: Mladen Petric, Alou Diarra, Andy Carroll, Razvan Rat, Ricardo Vaz Te

Why bet Fulham: Hard to say. They've lost four-straight matches, but all four were to teams in the top-10. The side lacks a killer pass in the final-third of the pitch, but Darren Bent and Dimitar Berbatov are still excellent goalscorers.

Key players out/doubtful: Hugo Rodallega, Damien Duff, Brede Hangeland, Sascha Riether

Key betting note: Three of West Ham's last four matches at Upton Park have gone over the 2.5 goal total.

Newcastle v West Brom (+105, +250, +300)

Why bet Newcastle: Nobody in England is playing better football at the moment. The Magpies have won three-straight matches and have earned their spot at No. 8 in the table. Loïc Remy has come in and scored eight goals and made fans forget the name Demba Ba.

Key players out/doubtful: Ryan Taylor

Why bet West Brom: The Baggies will be a little disheartened, having botched a two-goal lead against Villa Monday. Still, they've mustered five points from their last three matches and sit a respectable 11th in the table.

Key players out/doubtful: Zoltán Gera, Ben Foster, George Thorne

2012-13 fixture result: Newcastle 2, West Brom 1

Key betting note: Newcastle has lost just won of its six home games this season (3W, 2D, 1L)

[Can'tPickAWinner]

UFC TUF 18 betting: Maynard vs. Diaz so close statistically
By MMAODDSBREAKER

It’s a sneaky trilogy dating back to 2007. Nate Diaz first met Gray Maynard on the fifth season of The Ultimate Fighter, when Diaz won by guillotine choke to advance to the show’s finals.

In 2010, the two men met again in the Octagon for a main event matchup that resulted in a split decision win for Maynard. The win pushed Maynard into a title eliminator matchup that led to his two eventual title fights against Frankie Edgar, while Diaz spent time at welterweight, before returning to lightweight and earning a shot against Benson Henderson.

Both men failed in their lightweight title opportunities and are now coming off recent TKO losses. It’s a tough spot, but someone will get to turn things around while the other will be flung down the division ranks with another defeat.

Although Diaz first opened as a slight favorite, the market quickly pushed the line towards Maynard where it has remained. Maynard is now a -140 favorite, with Diaz now an underdog at +120.

Tale of the tape:

Physically, these two have very different builds that are worth noting. Maynard is a compact and powerful 5-foot-8 lightweight with a below-average 70-inch reach, while Diaz is a tall and lean 6-foot with a huge 76-inch reach.

MMA historically favors the longer fighters and Diaz’s long range compounded by his Southpaw stance give him some strong advantages in standup striking. In addition, Diaz is six years younger than Maynard, who is - perhaps surprisingly - now approaching the age of 35. Every one of these factors favors the underdog.

Striking matchup:

When it comes to striking offense, Diaz gets the technical advantages in accuracy and pace while Maynard has more punch-for-punch power. Diaz is very accurate with his long-range jab and when he gets opponents moving backwards, he can overwhelm them with staggering volume (as he did in his record-setting performance against Donald Cerrone).

Maynard shows slightly better defensive metrics than Diaz, but only slightly, and Maynard’s chin rating has been heading south fast in the last two years. Overall, if these guys stand and trade it will be Maynard trying to counter with power while Diaz should be able to control the cage and land the larger volume. These factors may cancel each other out in the “who will score a knockdown first” prediction, but on the score cards it favors Diaz.

The strange thing is that this scenario is basically how their second fight played out. Diaz outworked and outscored Maynard significantly in all three rounds, yet lost a split decision. The lack of definitive damage should have meant the controlling fighter would have won rounds, but in such a close fight it appears the judges were hedging a bit. It remains a rare case when judges scored against the more active fighter in a fight that stayed standing.

Grappling matchup:

On the ground is where things really diverge. Maynard has strong ground control stats and has rarely been put on his back. He attempts takedowns at a slightly higher than average pace and lands about half of them. When combined with his very strong takedown defense (he ranks ninth in the UFC all-time), he dominates on the ground with his wrestling.

Diaz, on the other hand, is perfectly content to fight off of his back. He spends most of his ground time on his back but using the position to attempt frequent submissions. The notoriously dangerous guard game of the Diaz brothers is justified with Nate alone earning seven submission stoppages in the UFC. In their last fight, Maynard didn’t even try to work any ground and pound, instead choosing to leave the fight standing. If Maynard repeats this strategy, Diaz is unlikely to get this fight to the ground.

Final analysis:

I can’t claim to know what the judges were thinking in 2010, despite being in the arena that night in Fairfax, VA. But I do see this playing out similarly to their second fight. Diaz will always have range control and aggression on his side, but the lack of power that he uses led judges to score against him in their last fight. Maynard didn’t want to fight Diaz on the ground last time, and that will likely be true again.

The line is close for good reason. These two guys stylistically cancel each other out. Maynard is susceptible to hard hitters, but that’s not Diaz. And Diaz has exposed power strikers on the ground, where Maynard won’t let this go.

In his last fight, Diaz was defeated by a more aggressive striker in Josh Thomson, so maybe Maynard will cut to the chase and try to get Diaz on the defensive. Conversely, the threshold for Maynard’s knockdown resiliency appears to be declining and maybe Diaz has enough power to wobble him. These are all reasons why this moneyline should remain close throughout fight week, and why no pick can be made with certainty.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Steve Fezzik

2* Over Virginia, Over Hawaii

[Can'tPickAWinner]

NCAA Football Game Picks

SATURDAY, NOVEMBER 30 Time Posted: 6:00 a.m. EST

Game 345-346: Ohio State at Michigan (12:00 p.m. EST) Dunkel Ratings: Ohio State 115.811; Michigan 95.970 Dunkel Line: Ohio State by 20; 53 Vegas Line: Ohio State by 14 1/2; 58 Dunkel Pick: Ohio State (-14 1/2); Under

Game 347-348: Boston College at Syracuse (3:30 p.m. EST) Dunkel Ratings: Boston College 85.935; Syracuse 88.869 Dunkel Line: Syracuse by 3; 57 Vegas Line: Boston College by 3; 52 1/2 Dunkel Pick: Syracuse (+3); Over

Game 349-350: Maryland at North Carolina State (12:30 p.m. EST) Dunkel Ratings: Maryland 85.279; North Carolina State 80.529 Dunkel Line: Maryland by 4 1/2; 46 Vegas Line: Maryland by 2 1/2; 51 Dunkel Pick: Maryland (-2 1/2); Under

Game 351-352: Wake Forest at Vanderbilt (12:21 p.m. EST) Dunkel Ratings: Wake Forest 79.944; Vanderbilt 99.312 Dunkel Line: Vanderbilt by 19 1/2; 37 Vegas Line: Vanderbilt by 14; 42 Dunkel Pick: Vanderbilt (-14); Under

Game 353-354: Duke at North Carolina (12:00 p.m. EST) Dunkel Ratings: Duke 94.762; North Carolina 96.725 Dunkel Line: North Carolina by 2; 65 Vegas Line: North Carolina by 6 1/2; 60 Dunkel Pick: Duke (+6 1/2); Over

Game 355-356: Iowa State at West Virginia (4:00 p.m. EST) Dunkel Ratings: Iowa State 84.136; West Virginia 85.076 Dunkel Line: West Virginia by 1; 62 Vegas Line: West Virginia by 8 1/2; 54 Dunkel Pick: Iowa State (+8 1/2); Over

Game 357-358: Northwestern at Illinois (3:30 p.m. EST) Dunkel Ratings: Northwestern 88.164; Illinois 82.359 Dunkel Line: Northwestern by 6; 54 Vegas Line: Northwestern by 3 1/2; 59 1/2 Dunkel Pick: Northwestern (-3 1/2); Under

Game 359-360: Purdue at Indiana (3:30 p.m. EST) Dunkel Ratings: Purdue 69.031; Indiana 94.747 Dunkel Line: Indiana by 25 1/2; 61 Vegas Line: Indiana by 20 1/2; 66 Dunkel Pick: Indiana (-20 1/2); Under

Game 361-362: Rutgers at Connecticut (12:00 p.m. EST) Dunkel Ratings: Rutgers 73.301; Connecticut 75.560 Dunkel Line: Connecticut by 2 1/2; 55 Vegas Line: Rutgers by 3; 49 Dunkel Pick: Connecticut (+3); Over

Game 363-364: Tennessee at Kentucky (7:00 p.m. EST) Dunkel Ratings: Tennessee 84.951; Kentucky 84.513 Dunkel Line: Even; 59 Vegas Line: Tennessee by 4 1/2; 53 Dunkel Pick: Kentucky (+4 1/2); Over

Game 365-366: Minnesota at Michigan State (12:00 p.m. EST) Dunkel Ratings: Minnesota 93.193; Michigan State 111.506 Dunkel Line: Michigan State by 18 1/2; 38 Vegas Line: Michigan State by 14 1/2; 41 Dunkel Pick: Michigan State (-14 1/2); Under

Game 367-368: Temple at Memphis (12:00 p.m. EST) Dunkel Ratings: Temple 78.137; Memphis 79.947 Dunkel Line: Memphis by 2; 52 Vegas Line: Memphis by 9; 47 Dunkel Pick: Temple (+9); Over

Game 369-370: Southern Mississippi at UAB (1:00 p.m. EST) Dunkel Ratings: Southern Mississippi 48.744; UAB 65.847 Dunkel Line: UAB by 17; 56 Vegas Line: UAB by 14; 61 1/2 Dunkel Pick: UAB (-14); Under

Game 371-372: South Alabama at Georgia State (2:00 p.m. EST) Dunkel Ratings: South Alabama 71.003; Georgia State 66.802 Dunkel Line: South Alabama by 4; 66 Vegas Line: South Alabama by 9; 60 Dunkel Pick: Georgia State (+9); Over

Game 373-374: Wyoming at Utah State (2:00 p.m. EST) Dunkel Ratings: Wyoming 64.215; Utah State 100.088 Dunkel Line: Utah State by 36; 54 Vegas Line: Utah State by 20 1/2; 58 1/2 Dunkel Pick: Utah State (-20 1/2); Under

Game 375-376: Colorado at Utah (2:00 p.m. EST) Dunkel Ratings: Colorado 78.728; Utah 92.590 Dunkel Line: Utah by 14; 62 Vegas Line: Utah by 17; 56 Dunkel Pick: Colorado (+17); Over

Game 377-378: BYU at Nevada (3:00 p.m. EST) Dunkel Ratings: BYU 102.763; Nevada 74.933 Dunkel Line: BYU by 28; 60 Vegas Line: BYU by 14 1/2; 64 1/2 Dunkel Pick: BYU (-14); Under

Game 379-380: Tulane at Rice (3:00 p.m. EST) Dunkel Ratings: Tulane 81.095; Rice 85.073 Dunkel Line: Rice by 4; 55 Vegas Line: Rice by 12; 49 Dunkel Pick: Tulane (+12); Over

Game 381-382: Georgia at Georgia Tech (3:30 p.m. EST) Dunkel Ratings: Georgia 101.454; Georgia Tech 95.067 Dunkel Line: Georgia by 6 1/2; 52 Vegas Line: Georgia by 3; 57 1/2 Dunkel Pick: Georgia (-3); Under

Game 383-384: Texas A&M at Missouri (7:45 p.m. EST) Dunkel Ratings: Texas A&M 106.904; Missouri 108.109 Dunkel Line: Missouri by 1; 73 Vegas Line: Missouri by 5; 68 Dunkel Pick: Texas A&M (+5); Over

Game 385-386: Virginia Tech at Virginia (3:30 p.m. EST) Dunkel Ratings: Virginia Tech 96.087; Virginia 74.185 Dunkel Line: Virginia Tech by 22; 37 Vegas Line: Virginia Tech by 12 1/2; 41 1/2 Dunkel Pick: Virginia Tech (-12 1/2); Under

Game 387-388: Alabama at Auburn (3:30 p.m. EST) Dunkel Ratings: Alabama 116.426; Auburn 108.921 Dunkel Line: Alabama by 7 1/2; 59 Vegas Line: Alabama by 11; 54 1/2 Dunkel Pick: Auburn (+11); Over

Game 389-390: New Mexico at Boise State (10:15 p.m. EST) Dunkel Ratings: New Mexico 65.478; Boise State 103.474 Dunkel Line: Boise State by 38; 61 Vegas Line: Boise State by 35 1/2; 64 Dunkel Pick: Boise State (-35 1/2); Under

Game 391-392: Baylor at TCU (3:30 p.m. EST) Dunkel Ratings: Baylor 104.652; TCU 94.456 Dunkel Line: Baylor by 10; 68 Vegas Line: Baylor by 13; 64 Dunkel Pick: TCU (+13); Over

Game 393-394: Florida State at Florida (12:00 p.m. EST) Dunkel Ratings: Florida State 128.076; Florida 81.388 Dunkel Line: Florida State by 46 1/2; 47 Vegas Line: Florida State by 27 1/2; 44 Dunkel Pick: Florida State (-27 1/2); Over

Game 395-396: Air Force at Colorado State (2:00 p.m. EST) Dunkel Ratings: Air Force 72.456; Colorado State 86.110 Dunkel Line: Colorado State by 13 1/2; 65 Vegas Line: Colorado State by 16 1/2; 59 1/2 Dunkel Pick: Air Force (+16 1/2); Over

Game 397-398: Kansas State at Kansas (12:00 p.m. EST) Dunkel Ratings: Kansas State 102.918; Kansas 74.121 Dunkel Line: Kansas State by 29; 46 Vegas Line: Kansas State by 16; 51 1/2 Dunkel Pick: Kansas State (-16); Under

Game 399-400: Penn State at Wisconsin (3:30 p.m. EST) Dunkel Ratings: Penn State 86.482; Wisconsin 117.357 Dunkel Line: Wisconsin by 31; 44 Vegas Line: Wisconsin by 23 1/2; 49 1/2 Dunkel Pick: Wisconsin (-23 1/2); Under

Game 401-402: Louisiana Tech at TX-San Antonio (3:30 p.m. EST) Dunkel Ratings: Louisiana Tech 69.139; TX-San Antonio 82.622 Dunkel Line: TX-San Antonio by 13 1/2; 57 Vegas Line: TX-San Antonio by 16 1/2; 52 Dunkel Pick: Louisiana Tech (+16 1/2); Over

Game 403-404: Idaho at New Mexico State (3:30 p.m. EST) Dunkel Ratings: Idaho 56.248; New Mexico State 56.341 Dunkel Line: Even; 68 Vegas Line: New Mexico State 3 1/2; 63 1/2 Dunkel Pick: Idaho (+3 1/2); Over

Game 405-406: San Diego State at UNLV (10:30 p.m. EST) Dunkel Ratings: San Diego State 84.826; UNLV 77.659 Dunkel Line: San Diego State by 7; 50 Vegas Line: San Diego State by 3; 55 Dunkel Pick: San Diego State (-3); Under

Game 407-408: Arkansas State at Western Kentucky (4:00 p.m. EST) Dunkel Ratings: Arkansas State 85.546; Western Kentucky 75.675 Dunkel Line: Arkansas State by 10; 62 Vegas Line: Western Kentucky by 6 1/2; 55 1/2 Dunkel Pick: Arkansas State (+6 1/2); Over

Game 409-410: North Texas at Tulsa (2:30 p.m. EST) Dunkel Ratings: North Texas 87.857; Tulsa 69.647 Dunkel Line: North Texas by 18; 45 Vegas Line: North Texas by 4 1/2; 50 Dunkel Pick: North Texas (-4 1/2); Under

Game 411-412: UL-Monroe at UL-Lafayette (7:00 p.m. EST) Dunkel Ratings: UL-Monroe 78.172; UL-Lafayette 84.055 Dunkel Line: UL-Lafayette by 6; 62 Vegas Line: UL Lafayette by 15; 56 1/2 Dunkel Pick: UL-Monroe (+15); Over

Game 413-414: UTEP at Middle Tennessee State (3:45 p.m. EST) Dunkel Ratings: UTEP 56.299; Middle Tennessee State 81.843 Dunkel Line: Middle Tennessee State by 25 1/2; Vegas Line: Middle Tennessee State by 22 1/2; 56 Dunkel Pick: Middle Tennessee State (-22 1/2); Under

Game 415-416: Clemson at South Carolina (7:00 p.m. EST) Dunkel Ratings: Clemson 108.887; South Carolina 105.354 Dunkel Line: Clemson by 3 1/2; 62 Vegas Line: South Carolina by 5 1/2; 58 Dunkel Pick: Clemson (+5 1/2); Over

Game 417-418: UCLA at USC (8:00 p.m. EST) Dunkel Ratings: UCLA 99.831; USC 112.543 Dunkel Line: USC by 12 1/2; 48 Vegas Line: USC by 3 1/2; 51 1/2 Dunkel Pick: USC (-3 1/2); Under

Game 419-420: Notre Dame at Stanford (7:00 p.m. EST) Dunkel Ratings: Notre Dame 100.281; Stanford 110.403 Dunkel Line: Stanford by 10; 53 Vegas Line: Stanford by 14 1/2; 49 Dunkel Pick: Notre Dame (+14 1/2); Over

Game 421-422: Arizona at Arizona State (9:30 p.m. EST) Dunkel Ratings: Arizona 89.854; Arizona State 112.545 Dunkel Line: Arizona State by 22 1/2; 56 Vegas Line: Arizona State by 12 1/2; 61 Dunkel Pick: Arizona State (-12 1/2); Under

Game 423-424: Army at Hawaii (12:00 a.m. EST) Dunkel Ratings: Army 65.462; Hawaii 73.534 Dunkel Line: Hawaii by 8; 56 Vegas Line: Hawaii by 6 1/2; 60 1/2 Dunkel Pick: Hawaii (-6 1/2); Under

[Can'tPickAWinner]

FOX SHEETS 3 and 4 or 5 star ratings only..

Play on Road underdogs of 10 or more points (ARK-LITTLE ROCK) - excellent free throw shooting team (>=73%) against an average free throw shooting team (65-69%), good ball handling team (<=14.5 TO's) against a poor pressure defensive team (<=14.5 TO's).
(24-3 over the last 5 seasons.) (88.9%, +20.7 units. Rating = 4*)

- Neutral court teams (TCU) - off a road win, playing their 2nd game in 3 days. (38-9 over the last 5 seasons.) (80.9%, +28.1 units. Rating = 4*)

- Neutral court teams (TCU) - off a road win, playing their 2nd road game in 3 days. (37-9 over the last 5 seasons.) (80.4%, +27.1 units. Rating = 4*)

- Neutral court teams (OLE MISS) - an explosive offensive team (>=76 PPG) against a good offensive team (74-76 PPG), after scoring 80 points or more 2 straight games.
(34-8 over the last 5 seasons.) (81%, +25.2 units. Rating = 4*)

CFB
- Home teams where the line is +3 to -3 (MARSHALL) - excellent rushing team (>=4.8 YPR) against an average rushing team (3.5 to 4.3 YPR) after 7+ games.
(26-4 over the last 10 seasons.) (86.7%, +21.6 units. Rating = 4*
- Any team (FLA INTERNATIONAL) - after allowing 37 points or more last game against opponent after 2 straight wins by 28 or more points.
(58-18 over the last 10 seasons.) (76.3%, +38.2 units. Rating = 4*)

(84-36 over the last 5 seasons.) (70%, +44.4 units. Rating = 3*)

- Any team (SAN JOSE ST) - after allowing 37 points or more last game against opponent after 2 straight wins by 28 or more points. (58-18 over the last 10 seasons.) (76.3%, +38.2 units. Rating = 4*) - Favorites of 21.5 to 31 points (OREGON) - solid team - outgaining their opponents by 1 or more yards/play, after gaining 6.25 or more yards/play in 2 consecutive games. (40-11 over the last 5 seasons.) (78.4%, +27.9 units. Rating = 4*) - Home favorites of 21.5 to 31 points (OREGON) - with an incredible offense - averaging 6.4 or more yards/play, after gaining 6.25 or more yards/play in 2 consecutive games. (49-13 over the last 10 seasons.) (79%, +34.7 units. Rating = 4*) - Home favorites of 21.5 to 31 points (OREGON) - solid team - outgaining their opponents by 1 or more yards/play, after gaining 6.25 or more yards/play in 2 consecutive games. (48-15 over the last 10 seasons.) (76.2%, +31.5 units. Rating = 4*)

[Can'tPickAWinner]

CKO

11 OHIO STATE over *Michigan
Late Score Forecast:
OHIO STATE 45 - *Michigan 17


10 BOSTON COLLEGE over *Syracuse
Late Score Forecast:
BOSTON COLLEGE 27 - *Syracuse 13


10 *VANDERBILT over Wake Forest
Late Score Forecast:
*VANDERBILT 38 - Wake Forest 14

10 *HAWAII over Army
Late Score Forecast:
*HAWAII 33 - Army 17

NINE-RATED GAMES:
TENNESSEE (-4) at Kentucky—Vols much more physical; UK has beaten only Alabama State and winless Miami-O...
UTAH (-16½) vs. Colorado—Utes were tough enough to beat Stanford on this field; young Buffaloes trailed USC by 30 last week in the fourth quarter until the Trojans relented...
MIDDLE TENNESSEE STATE (-22½) vs. Utep—Middle seeking to impress scouts from the many minor bowls; Miners 0-8 as a dog TY!!!...
SOUTHERN CAL (-4) vs. Ucla—Revenge-minded Trojans have covered 7 of last 8 meetings at the Coliseum; “Coach O” is on a roll

[Can'tPickAWinner]

The Gold Sheet

Key Releases

TULANE Plus over Rice
COLORADO STATE by 28 over Air Force
KANSAS STATE by 30 over Kansas

[Can'tPickAWinner]

College Football odds Week 14 Opening Line Report

Ohio State Buckeyes at Michigan (+13.5)

Even if nothing is on the line, this game is always huge. In this case, the ramifications for Ohio State are huge.

The Buckeyes (11-0, 6-4-1 ATS) have a shot at squeezing into the BCS Championship Game if they can remain unbeaten. Michigan (7-4 SU, 6-5 ATS) has no shot at reaching the Big Ten title game, but the Wolverines’ season would be deemed a full success if they beat the archrival Buckeyes.

Michigan is 1-8 SU and ATS in its last nine against Ohio State, winning 40-34 two years ago at the Big House but failing to cash as an 8.5-point chalk.

“Another double-digit favorite in which this plays into the favorite all the way,” Korner said. “Ohio State needs the game, while Michigan is playing for some obscure bowl game being played on a Tuesday night sometime in the future. There is no way Ohio State is distracted."

“Our range went from Ohio State -10.5 to -14.5, and we sent out -13.5. It looks like there was some early money on Michigan, but we're not going for that. Anyone hanging this line on the light side will pay for it come game time.”

UCLA Bruins at Southern California Trojans (-6)

Prior to this weekend, both these teams had a shot to reach the Pac-12 title game. But Arizona State’s victory over UCLA on Saturday knocked both the Bruins and USC out of contention, so they’ll play this one for pride.

Southern Cal (9-3, 6-6 ATS) has stunningly regained its form since firing Lane Kiffin, going on a 6-1 SU run (5-2 ATS), including a 47-29 victory at Colorado on Saturday as a 21-point favorite. UCLA (8-3 SU, 7-4 ATS) had won three in a row SU before the 38-33 loss to ASU as a 3-point home underdog.

“This is a good game, which we wouldn't have expected four weeks ago,” Korner said. “Four of my oddsmakers had this in the range of USC -3 to -5.5. I personally had -9. USC has been the nuts since their shakeup. I tempered my bad line to send out USC -6, while I stared at a -3.5 on the offshores. Both teams are having good seasons, but USC is winning games by an average of almost 17 points the past five contests. The only big game UCLA has had in the past five weeks was at home against Colorado. No big feat. I think this number climbs come game time.”