12-1-13

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NHL

Sunday, December 1

Hot teams
-- Detroit won its last three games, outscoring teams 14-3.
-- Oilers won four of their last six games.

Cold teams
-- Canucks lost eight of their last ten games. Carolina lost five of last seven.
-- Red Wings lost five of their last seven games.
-- Dallas Stars lost three of their last four games.

Totals
-- Over is 3-1-1 in last five Vancouver games.
-- Last four Detroit-Ottawa games went over the total.
-- Nine of last ten Dallas-Edmonton games stayed under.

Series records
-- Home team won last six Carolina-Vancouver games.
-- Senators beat Detroit twice this season, 6-1/4-2.
-- Dallas Stars won 12 of last 14 games with Edmonton.

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From Platinum Plays. 500K NFL Upset/Month
the Arizona Cardinals +3½ Over
the Philadelphia Eagles
Best Bets
the New England Patriots -7 over
the Houston Texans
the Jacksonville Jaguars +7 over
the Cleveland Browns
the NY Jets -2 over
the Miami Dolphins
the Chicago/Minnesota Game OVER
the Total Of 50 Points
500K Sunday Night Parlay
the NY Giants Pk over
the Washington Redskins
the NY Giants/Washington Game OVER
the Total Of 45 Points
Best Bets
the Denver Broncos -6 Over
the Kansas City Chiefs
the San Diego Chargers Pk Over
the Cincinnati Bengals
the Atlanta Falcons +3½ Over
the Buffalo Bills
PREMIER PICKS
the Tampa Bay Buccaneers +7½ over
the Carolina Panthers
the St Louis Rams +7½ over
the San Francisco 49ers

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NBA

Sunday, December 1

Hot teams
-- Nuggets won last five games, covered seven of last ten.
-- Clippers won four in row, eight of last ten games. Pacers are 15-1 SU, covered eight of its last ten games.
-- Miami won its last nine games, covered six of last seven. Bobcats are 5-1-1 vs spread on the road.
-- Thunder won its last six games, covered five of last seven.
-- Portland won 11 of last 12 games, covered six of last eight. Lakers won five of their last six games.

Cold Teams
-- Toronto lost four of its last five home games.
-- 76ers lost three in row, seven of last eight games. Detroit lost three of its last four home games.
-- Warriors lost five of their last six games. Sacramento lost its last three games, covered twice in last seven.
-- Minnesota lost five of its last seven games.
-- Knicks lost last eight games; they're 0-7 vs spread at home. Pelicans lost four of their last five road games.

Totals
-- Four of last five Denver games stayed under the total.
-- Four of last five Indiana games stayed under the total.
-- Seven of last nine Philly games went over the total.
-- Six of last eight Golden State games stayed under total.
-- Under is 9-0-1 in last ten Charlotte games.
-- Six of last eight Minnesota games stayed under the total.
-- Seven of last eight Pelican games went over the total.
-- Six of last eight Portland games went over the total.

Series records
-- Denver won eight of last ten games with Toronto, but lost last couple of visits here.
-- Clippers lost five of last eight games against Indiana.
-- Pistons won three of last four games with Philly.
-- Warriors lost four of last five visits to Sacramento.
-- Miami won last 12 games with Charlotte, covered six of last seven.
-- Thunder won 14 of last 16 games with Minnesota; Wolves are 3-4 vs spread in last seven visits here.
-- Pelicans lost eight of their last nine games with New York.
-- Lakers won five of their last six games with Portland.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

StatFox Super Situations™ - FoxSheets

NFL NEW ENGLAND at HOUSTON
Play On - Underdogs or pick (HOUSTON) after 7 or more consecutive losses, in December games
46-18 since 1997. ( 71.9% 26.2 units )

NFL TAMPA BAY at CAROLINA
Play On - Road teams vs. the money line (TAMPA BAY) after 2 consecutive game where they committed no turnovers
40-18 over the last 5 seasons. ( 69.0% 0.0 units )
3-4 this year. ( 42.9% 0.0 units )

NFL NEW ORLEANS at SEATTLE
Play Against - Road underdogs of 2 to 6 points vs. the first half line (NEW ORLEANS) after 2 or more consecutive losses against the spread, in December games
89-45 since 1997. ( 66.4% 39.5 units )

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WINNING POINTS

COLLEGE BASKETBALL

**PREFERRED
Wichita State over Saint Louis* by 9
The host Billikens’ two leading scorers, Jordair Jett and Dwayne Evans, had attempted
only 9 three-pointers combined in their first four games, missing all nine. That lack
of range figures to make a good defensive Wichita State team even better.
WICHITA STATE, 68-59.

Notre Dame* over Cornell by 23

Mississippi State*over Loyola-Chicago by 8

North Carolina over *UAB by 12

*East Carolina over NC-Wilmington by 18

Oregon State over Depaul* by 1

Kentucky over Providence by 6 (at Brooklyn, NY)
It’s early, but Kentucky hasn’t shot as bad as its opening 31.6% from three-point range
since Tayshaun Prince and Keith Bogans were playing for them. That was 12 years ago.
KENTUCKY, 71-65.

*Oregon over Cal Poly-SLO by 24
Second of back-to-backs for each, with Oregon seeming to have the edge in depth,
speed, length that would create quite the problem for the Polys.
OREGON, 91-67.

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StatFox Super Situations™ - FoxSheets

CBB SOUTHERN UTAH at PORTLAND
Play On - Underdogs of 20 or more points (SOUTHERN UTAH) good free throw shooting team - making >=72% of their free throws, poor defensive team - shooting pct defense of >=45% on the season
74-36 since 1997. ( 67.3% 34.4 units )
1-1 this year. ( 50.0% -0.1 units )

CBB SAN DIEGO ST at MARQUETTE
Play On - All teams with a money line of +135 to -155 (MARQUETTE) after leading their last 2 games by 10+ points at the half, with just two starters returning from last year in the first 10 games of the season
63-29 since 1997. ( 68.5% 30.9 units )
5-3 this year. ( 62.5% 1.5 units )

CBB MEMPHIS at OKLAHOMA ST
Play On - Neutral Court teams vs. the 1rst half line (OKLAHOMA ST) after allowing 30 points or less in the first half in 2 straight games against opponent after scoring 75 points or more 5 straight games
81-40 since 1997. ( 66.9% 37.0 units )
2-3 this year. ( 40.0% -1.3 units )

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Diamond Dog Sports
Texans
Under Colts
Under Jets

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JOE WIZ
NFL Sunday... Play Under 48.5 bet. Atlanta and Buffalo

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CHASE DIAMOND
9* CBB Best Bet
Memphis vs. Oklahoma State
Point Spread: +6/-110 Memphis

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Joe Gavazzi

NFL
NY Giants (-1) at Washington 8:30 ET
5* NY Giants -1

The Redskins were pathetic in rolling over for us on MNF last week. In their 27-6 loss to San
Francisco, they were outgained 304-190. Their normally reliable ground game gained just 100
yards dropping their average to 150/4.9 still the top in the NFL. But that number may take
another hit this week against the staunch Giants defensive front allowing just 99/3.8. Last week,
NYG outrushed Dallas 202-107. That is a 76% indicator of success (at a 30 or more yard diff) in a
0 net TO game. But the Giants lost 24-21 putting a temporary end to their 4 game winning streak.
Look for that to resume today against a Washington defense allowing 31 PPG and 6.3 YPPL.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Cardinals at Eagles What bettors need to know

Arizona Cardinals at Philadelphia Eagles (-3, 48.5)

All eyes will be on LeSean McCoy and the Philadelphia rushing attack when the Eagles host the Arizona Cardinals and their stingy run defense on Sunday afternoon. McCoy leads the NFL with 1,408 yards from scrimmage, including an NFL-best 1,009 yards on the ground. As a team, the Eagles pace the league with 150.6 rushing yards per game, while Arizona has allowed the second-fewest rushing yards (81.3).

"I think we have a good feel of what they want to do," said Cardinals cornerback Patrick Peterson, while Philadelphia coach Chip Kelly noted, "It's a formidable defense, and they're playing really, really well right now." The Cardinals and Eagles each ride hot quarterbacks into this matchup, as Arizona's Carson Palmer is the reigning NFC Offensive Player of the Week, while Philadelphia's Nick Foles was the NFC's Offensive Player of the Month for November. The Cardinals have won four games in a row, while the Eagles are aiming for their fourth straight victory as both teams try to improve their playoff chances.

TV: 1 p.m. ET, Fox.

LINE: The Eagles opened -3 and the total has held at 48.5.

WEATHER: Temperatures will be in the low-40s with wind blowing across the field at 5 mph.

ABOUT THE CARDINALS (7-4): After defeating three of the league's worst teams (Atlanta, Houston and Jacksonville), Arizona notched an impressive 40-11 victory over AFC South-leading Indianapolis last week. Palmer has thrown for 300-plus yards in back-to-back games and has a 110.8 quarterback rating during the four-game winning streak. As usual, Larry Fitzgerald is the focal point of the Cardinals' offense, hauling in two touchdowns last week and racking up 412 receiving yards and six touchdowns over the last three meetings with Philly.

ABOUT THE EAGLES (6-5): Kelly, coming off a bye week for the first time as an NFL coach, needed the extra time to improve a defense that ranks last in the league in passing yards allowed. That said, the Eagles' defense has surrendered 21 points or fewer in seven straight games, including their most recent contest - a 24-16 triumph over Washington in which Trent Cole had two of the team's four sacks. Offensively, Foles is quietly enjoying a terrific season, as the second-year quarterback has 16 touchdowns and no interceptions - just the third player in NFL history to start a season with that many TDs without a pick.

TRENDS:
* Home team is 5-1 ATS in their last six meetings.
* Cardinals are 2-5 ATS in their last seven meetings in Philadelphia.
* Eagles are 13-3 ATS in their last 16 games in Week 13.
* Over is 15-2 in Eagles last 17 games in Week 13.

EXTRA POINTS:
1. The Cardinals and Eagles combined for nine wins last season, with both teams finishing in last place in their respective division.

2. Veteran LB John Abraham has seven sacks and three forced fumbles in Arizona's last five games.

3. The Cardinals topped the Eagles 27-6 last season as Fitzgerald recorded 114 yards and a touchdown.

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WINNING POINTS

PRO BASKETBALL
*Toronto over Denver by 2
After hosting the Knicks Friday night, the Nuggets don't have much rest time with
this early start time. Denver's offense remains inconsistent as new coach Brian Shaw
seeks the right rotations. The Raptors have been getting big scoring from Rudy Gay
and DeMar DeRozan.
TORONTO 104-102.

*Los Angeles Clippers over Indiana by 2
Indiana begins a five-game road swing with this matchup. The Pacers are No. 1 in
defense, but have played only three good teams all season and haven't had to deal with a point guard of Chris Paul's skills.
LA CLIPPERS 97-95.

*Detroit over Philadelphia by 3
Since opening the season with three covers in a row, the Pistons have failed to cover
in seven of their last nine through Nov. 23. Detroit isn't helped by having overmatched
Maurice Cheeks as its head coach.
DETROIT 98-95.

***BEST BET
Golden State over *Sacramento by 13
Going into last Sunday, the Kings only had defeated a crippled Nets squad and
Phoenix since their second game while being under 92 points in four of their last five
losses. Sacramento doesn't have enough offense to keep up with the Warriors, especially their high-scoring backcourt of Stephen Curry and Klay Thompson.
GOLDEN STATE 109-96.

*Miami over Charlotte by 18
Charlotte has Al Jefferson back to provide low-post scoring, but the Bobcats still were
averaging fewer than 90 points a game through their first 13 matchups. Miami was
15-5 ATS versus foes with a losing record going into this week.
MIAMI 105-87.

*Oklahoma City over Minnesota by 8
The Thunder got revenge on the Clippers and they'll look to get revenge on the
Timberwolves, who blasted them 100-81 at Target Center on Nov. 1. Kevin Durant
was held to only 13 points, his lowest output in two years, and the Thunder were missing Russell Westbrook in that matchup.
OKLAHOMA CITY 108-100.

***BEST BET
New Orleans over *New York by 7
The Knicks could be somewhat vulnerable just getting back early Saturday from
Denver following a four-game road trip. New York has been trying to get things
turned around minus Tyson Chandler (check status) and point guard Raymond
Felton (check status). Anthony Davis should have another big game. The Pelicans are
already on the East Coast having played at Philadelphia two days ago. The Knicks
ranked 29th in field goal percentage and were 25th in assists through 12 games.
NEW ORLEANS 101-94.

Portland over *Los Angeles Lakers by 3
The Trail Blazers are much more well-rounded this season quietly putting together a
10-game winning streak while going 8-2 ATS going into this week. You can count on
one hand how many players are having a better season so far than LaMarcus Aldridge.
PORTLAND 106-103.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

StatFox Super Situations™ - FoxSheets

NBA PORTLAND at LA LAKERS
Play Under - Any team after going over the total by 48 or more points total in their last seven games, a top-level team (>= 75%) playing a marginal winning team (51% to 60%)
59-26 since 1997. ( 69.4% 30.4 units )

NBA MINNESOTA at OKLAHOMA CITY
Play Against - Road teams vs. the money line (MINNESOTA) in a game involving two poor three point shooting teams (<=33%), good ball handling team (<=14.5 TO's) against an average pressure defensive team (14.5-16.5 TO's)
32-12 over the last 5 seasons. ( 72.7% 21.3 units )
1-2 this year. ( 33.3% -1.9 units )

NBA PHILADELPHIA at DETROIT
Play Over - All teams where the first half total is greater than 100 in a game involving two poor three point shooting teams (<=33%), in a game involving two average rebounding teams (+/-3 reb/game)
78-38 since 1997. ( 67.2% 36.2 units )

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StatFox Super Situations™ - FoxSheets

NHL EDMONTON at DALLAS
Play Against - Any team against the money line (EDMONTON) revenging a home blowout loss vs opponent of 3 goals or more, terrible team, winning 30% or less of their games in the first half of the season
31-4 over the last 5 seasons. ( 88.6% 26.0 units )
1-0 this year. ( 100.0% 1.0 units )

NHL DETROIT at OTTAWA
Play On - Home teams against the money line (OTTAWA) poor possession team-averaging 3+ less shots on goal/game than opp, hot offensive team - 3 straight games with 33 or more shots on goal
24-4 over the last 5 seasons. ( 85.7% 20.0 units )
1-0 this year. ( 100.0% 1.0 units )

NHL VANCOUVER at CAROLINA
Play On - A underdog against the money line (CAROLINA) tired team - when playing their 3rd game in 5 days against opponent extremely tired team - playing their 3rd road game in 4 days
27-9 over the last 5 seasons. ( 75.0% 24.0 units )
1-0 this year. ( 100.0% 1.1 units )

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Total Talk - Week 13
By Chris David

Week 12 Recap

The first time in a while, total players finally saw some low-scoring affairs, which helped the ‘under’ go 7-6-1 in Week 12. Including those results, the ‘over’ still sits at 93-79-2 on the season and that doesn’t include the three ‘over’ winners that cashed this past Thursday on Thanksgiving.

Non-Conference Overs

This season, we’ve had 53 non-conference matchups (AFC vs. NFC) this season and the ‘over’ has gone 40-13 (76%) in those games. In Week 12, the results went 1-1 but the Oakland-Dallas matchup on Thanksgiving kept the trend rolling into this weekend.

There is only one game that fit this angle on Sunday.

Atlanta at Buffalo – When you first looked at this game, the high total might’ve turned you away but make a note that this game is being played at the Rogers Center from Toronto, Canada. This will be the sixth time that the NFL will play a game from this venue. The first four games saw the ‘under’ go 3-0-1 but last year’s matchup was an easy ‘over’ tickets as Seattle blasted Buffalo 50-17. The Bills are 1-4 in the “Toronto Series” but the oddsmakers have them listed as 3 ½-point favorites on Sunday.

Line Moves

The Line Moves went 2-2 last week, pushing the season numbers to 33-24-1 (58%). Listed below are this week’s matchups that have had a total move by 1 ½ points or more at CRIS’s opening lines, which were sent out Sunday evening.

Chicago at Minnesota: Line opened 48 and jumped to 50
Miami at N.Y. Jets: Line opened at 38½ and jumped to 40½
New England at Houston: Line opened at 46 and jumped to 47½
Denver at Kansas City: Line opened 47½ and jumped to 49
Cincinnati at San Diego: Line opened at 45 and jumped to 48

Indoor Shootouts

There were three games played indoors in Week 12 and all three went ‘over’ their totals. In Week 13, we have four more on tap and the oddsmakers are expecting more high-scoring affairs.

Tennessee at Indianapolis – These teams met a few weeks ago in a Thursday night affair as the Colts captured a 30-27 road victory over the Titans. The total has jumped three points (45) for the rematch and both Tennessee (7-3-1) and Indianapolis (7-4) have been ‘over’ clubs this season. Indy has watched the ‘over’ cash in its last five games plus the ‘over’ has gone 4-1 at home. Tennessee on an ‘over’ run (4-0-1) in its last five as well.

Chicago at Minnesota – This is another matchup that features a pair of ‘over’ clubs squaring off as the Vikings (8-2-1) and Bears (8-3) meet for the second time this season. In the first encounter, Chicago defeated Minnesota 31-30 in Week 2 from Soldier Field. The total was 41 for that game and now we’re staring at a number close to 50 in the rematch and both teams are banged-up in the quarterback position too. Why is the number so high? Defensively, the Vikings (31.5 PPG) are the worst in scoring and the Bears (28.1 PPG) are ranked 29th.

New England at Houston – Personally, I wouldn’t touch a side or total that involves Houston right now. The team is a mess and I would expect them to lose out and fire their coach. As far as this matchup goes, I would expect the Patriots’ offense (26.2 PPG) to score but can you trust Houston’s offense (18.1 PPG) to do the same? The number does seem a tad high when you realize the Texans have been inconsistent plus the Patriots have seen the ‘under’ go 3-2 on the road.

Atlanta at Buffalo – (See Above)

Divisional Battles

Tampa Bay at Carolina – The Panthers defeated the Buccaneers 31-13 on the road in late October. Carolina has watched its last four games go ‘under’ while Tampa Bay is on a 6-1 run to the ‘over.’

Miami at N.Y. Jets – This is the first meeting of the season. The ‘under’ has gone 3-1 in the last four encounters. The Jets were held to single digits for the third time this season in their 19-3 loss at Baltimore last Sunday. In the first two instances, New York responded with 30 and 36 in its following games.

St. Louis at San Francisco – The 49ers ran over the Rams 35-11 in Week 4 on the road and the ‘over’ (43) cashed. The ‘over’ is 3-1 in the last four meetings. St. Louis is the best ‘over’ team (9-2) in the NFL. San Francisco used to be a good ‘over’ look but the ‘under’ has cashed in its last three games.

Tennessee at Indianapolis – (See Above)

Chicago at Minnesota – (See Above)

N.Y. Giants at Washington – (See Below)

Under the Lights

For the second consecutive week, the ‘under’ went 2-1 in the primetime games and it could’ve been 3-0 if the Denver-New England affair didn’t catch 41 points in the final two quarters. This week’s primetime games will be tough to handicap considering one is practically meaningless and the other could decide who will get homefield advantage in the NFC.

N.Y. Giants at Washington: This will be the first meeting between the two teams with the rematch set for Week 17, which could be even more meaningless than this one. The Giants have seen the ‘under’ go 3-2 on the road this season while the Redskins have watched the ‘over’ go 3-2 at FedEx Field. The ‘under’ is on a 5-1 run in this series and in the last 10 meetings between the pair, we’ve only see two games with more than 45 points posted on the scoreboard.

New Orleans at Seattle: Real tough total to handicap because you can argue both ways. The Seahawks (16.3 PPG) have the second-best scoring defense in the league while the Saints (17.8 PPG) are ranked fifth. Offensively, Seattle (27.8 PPG) and New Orleans (27.7) are practically tied for second in scoring offense. With that being said, something has to give on MNF. The Seahawks have seen the ‘over’ go 3-2 in their home games while the Saints have been a solid ‘under’ club outside of the Superdome. The last time these franchises met was in the 2011 playoffs when Seattle shocked New Orleans 41-36 as a 10-point home underdog. Be sure to keep an eye on the weather conditions for this game.

Fearless Predictions

We lost 20 cents ($20) in Week 12 but picked up $190 on Thanksgiving. Overall, we’re up $280 heading into the final month. As always, Press, Pass or Fade but in the end – Good Luck!

Best Over: Miami-New York Jets 40
Best Under: Arizona-Philadelphia 48
Best Team Total: Over 24 San Francisco

Three-Team Total Teaser:
Over 31 Miami-New York Jets
Over 32 St. Louis-San Francisco
Under 56 New Orleans-Seattle