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20* INDIANAPOLIS COLTS -4
20* PHILADELPHIA EAGLES -3
20* TITANS / COLTS UNDER 46
20* PATRIOTS / TEXANS OVER 48
20* BUCCANEERS / PANTHERS UNDER 41½
20* BRONCOS / CHIEFS UNDER 50
20* SAN DIEGO CHARGERS +1½
Joe Nelson's Pick Pack
NFL Sunday Picks
Premium Plays
Matchup: Arizona at Philadelphia
Time: 1:00 PM EDT (Sun)
Play: Under (49 -110)
Line Source: 5dimes
Posted on: November 29, 2013 @ 2:45:37 PM EST
This has become a key game between two 2012 last place teams as both teams are right in the mix for the playoffs but with little margin for error. Arizona has three big division games left on the schedule and the Eagles will face playoff contenders in three of the final four weeks as well. The struggles for the Eagles in home games have been well documented but the Philadelphia defense has allowed 21 or fewer points in seven straight games since the blowout loss to Denver. The offense now led by Nick Foles steals most of the attention but the Eagles will have a hard time running the ball in this matchup as Arizona allows just 81 rushing yards per game on just 3.5 yards per rush. The Cardinals should be one of the best defensive teams Philadelphia has faced all season as the pass defense has allowed less than 59 percent completions this season. Philadelphia allows 412 yards per game but the statistics have been a bit misleading. On the current three-game win streak Philadelphia has built huge early leads as the opposition has needed to pass to get back into the game but even so Philadelphia has allowed just 49 points in the last three games and the ‘under’ is 4-1 in the last five Eagles games. The ‘over’ has hit in three Arizona games in a row but that forces the highest total of the season on a Cardinals game and Arizona has faced some awful defenses in recent weeks including going against the Falcons and Jaguars. Arizona is also leaning more heavily on the running game in recent weeks which should contribute to lower scoring. The totals in Arizona road games this season have been just 42 on average this season as value is on the ‘under’ Sunday.
Member Plays
Matchup: St. Louis at San Francisco
Time: 4:05 PM EDT (Sun)
Play: St. Louis (+9 -110)
Line Source: Peppermill
Posted on: November 29, 2013 @ 2:45:37 PM EST
The Rams played the 49ers tough twice last season and after getting blown out at home earlier this season this is a huge game for a surging Rams squad hoping to get back to .500. The running game has emerged for St. Louis and Kellen Clemens has been very capable at QB. The 49ers have a short week after a key game Monday so this could be a bad spot especially with a rematch with Seattle next on the schedule. The 49ers won 27-6 on Monday against a Redskins squad that has some internal conflict and has clearly given up on the season. San Francisco did not dominate as the offense mostly struggled against one of the worst defenses in the NFL. Colin Kaepernick completed just 15 passes as he has not been able to recapture the success of last season and the 49ers struggled to run the ball as Washington dared the 49ers to pass. Look for St. Louis to employ a similar strategy but the difference is a St. Louis secondary that is one of the best units in the NFL. In the last three road games St. Louis has crushed Houston and Tennessee and out-gained red hot Carolina in a tough loss as this is a much better team than the record indicates. St. Louis does not currently resemble the team the 49ers played early in the season and San Francisco has already lost at home twice this season despite being valued for a dominant home field edge. The Rams have covered in five of the last six meetings and this is still a great opportunity for the underdog.
Guaranteed Plays
Matchup: Cincinnati at San Diego
Time: 4:25 PM EDT (Sun)
Play: Cincinnati (+1.5 -110)
Line Source: William Hill
Posted on: November 29, 2013 @ 2:45:37 PM EST
The Chargers pulled out a huge win last week, posting 41 points on a highly regarded Kansas City defense. San Diego remains one of the worst defensive teams in the NFL but the Chargers have been known to play up to the level of competition and they did catch the Chiefs in a bad spot last week in between the two Denver games. The Bengals have been inconsistent but this one of the higher scoring teams in the AFC, scoring 27 or more in four of the last six games. Cincinnati’s defense is still above average even with some injuries, featuring the second best yards per play defense in the NFL. San Diego has not been able to carry success week-to-week and a rested Bengals team that needs to assert control in the division race should have a strong performance. Two losses this season have come in overtime in road games for the Bengals as this easily could be one of the elite teams in the NFL with a much stronger record. Cincinnati has covered in four of the last five meetings including being more dominant than the 20-13 final score suggested in last season’s meeting in San Diego. Cincinnati is just 2-4 on the road this season but the last four road games came in a five-week span with three of those games going to overtime. San Diego has the worst yards per play defense in the NFL at 6.7 yards per play allowed compared with a 4.8 mark for the Bengals and the Chargers will be made one-dimensional in this matchup against a very tough Bengals run defense.
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