12-7-13

[Can'tPickAWinner]

[Can'tPickAWinner]

NCAA Football Game Picks

SATURDAY, DECEMBER 7 Time Posted: 9:00 a.m. EST (12/4)

Game 107-108: Memphis at Connecticut (1:00 p.m. EST) Dunkel Ratings: Memphis 81.145; Connecticut 69.272 Dunkel Line: Memphis by 12; 38 Vegas Line: Memphis by 1; 43 Dunkel Pick: Memphis (-1); Under

Game 109-110: South Florida at Rutgers (7:30 p.m. EST) Dunkel Ratings: South Florida 75.918; Rutgers 73.366 Dunkel Line: South Florida by 2 1/2; 49 Vegas Line: Rutgers by 6; 46 1/2 Dunkel Pick: South Florida (+6); Over

Game 111-112: Texas at Baylor (3:30 p.m. EST) Dunkel Ratings: Texas 95.922; Baylor 123.637 Dunkel Line: Baylor by 27 1/2; 68 Vegas Line: Baylor by 14; 73 Dunkel Pick: Baylor (-14); Under

Game 113-114: UL-Lafayette at South Alabama (8:00 p.m. EST) Dunkel Ratings: UL-Lafayette 83.102; South Alabama 74.003 Dunkel Line: UL-Lafayette by 9; 62 Vegas Line: South Alabama by 3; 58 Dunkel Pick: UL-Lafayette (+3); Over

Game 115-116: Central Florida at SMU (12:00 p.m. EST) Dunkel Ratings: Central Florida 96.574; SMU 80.496 Dunkel Line: Central Florida by 16; 65 Vegas Line: No Line Dunkel Pick: N/A

Game 117-118: Oklahoma at Oklahoma State (12:00 p.m. EST) Dunkel Ratings: Oklahoma 102.232; Oklahoma State 108.154 Dunkel Line: Oklahoma State by 6; 54 Vegas Line: Oklahoma State by 10; 58 1/2 Dunkel Pick: Oklahoma (+10); Under

Game 119-120: Marshall at Rice (12:00 p.m. EST) Dunkel Ratings: Marshall 85.469; Rice 89.380 Dunkel Line: Rice by 4; 66 Vegas Line: Marshall by 6; 61 Dunkel Pick: Rice (+6); Over

Game 121-122: Missouri vs. Auburn (4:00 p.m. EST) Dunkel Ratings: Missouri 107.460; Auburn 112.329 Dunkel Line: Auburn by 5; 52 Vegas Line: Auburn by 2; 58 Dunkel Pick: Auburn (-2); Under

Game 123-124: Duke vs. Florida State (8:00 p.m. EST) Dunkel Ratings: Duke 93.459; Florida State 128.076 Dunkel Line: Florida State by 34 1/2; 58 Vegas Line: Florida State by 28 1/2; 62 Dunkel Pick: Florida State (-28 1/2); Under

Game 125-126: Stanford at Arizona State (7:45 p.m. EST) Dunkel Ratings: Stanford 112.863; Arizona State 111.963 Dunkel Line: Stanford by 1; 61 Vegas Line: Arizona State by 3; 56 Dunkel Pick: Stanford (+3); Over

Game 127-128: Ohio State vs. Michigan State (8:15 p.m. EST) Dunkel Ratings: Ohio State 115.123; Michigan State 106.465 Dunkel Line: Ohio State by 8 1/2; 47 Vegas Line: Ohio State by 5 1/2; 51 1/2 Dunkel Pick: Ohio State (-5 1/2); Under

Game 129-130: Utah State at Fresno State (10:00 p.m. EST) Dunkel Ratings: Utah State 95.302; Fresno State 91.778 Dunkel Line: Utah State by 3 1/2; 66 Vegas Line: Fresno State by 4; 61 Dunkel Pick: Utah State (+4); Over

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Dave Cokin:

Football
Stanford +3.5
Utah St +3.5

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Chicago Syndicate

CFB Conference USA Game of the Year

Marshall -4.5

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Football lines that make you go hmmm...
By JASON LOGAN

NCAAF

Texas Longhorns at Baylor Bears (-14, 73)

Tall totals are nothing new for Big 12 bettors. Baylor has forced books to post numbers above 70 points all season and draw another massive Over/Under in this season finale with the Longhorns.

The Bears, however, haven’t eclipsed those piles of points with ease, going 2-3-1 O/U in the six games with totals in the 70s or higher. Texas, the other side of this total, has been one of the best Under bets since October, posting a 1-5 O/U count in its last six outings.

The Longhorns don’t have the firepower to trade blows with the Bears, so they’ll lean on their defense to get the job done. Texas has a quick-strike stop unit and formidable pass rush that has collected 35 sacks – tied for 10th in the land – including nine QB kills in a blowout win over Texas Tech last weekend.

The Longhorns can also hold the fort on the ground, something that Oklahoma State successfully did in its win over BU. Baylor was limited to only 2.6 yards per carry on 36 run attempts, totaling 94 rushing yards versus the Cowboys. That was a massive drop off from the Bears' season average of 5.52 yards per carry.

Ohio State Buckeyes vs. Michigan State Spartans (+5.5, 51.5)

The Buckeyes are like the disillusioned boyfriend not giving up on the hot girl who cheated on him and tossed him to the curb like yesterday’s recycling.

Ohio State, despite its unblemished record and current No. 2 spot in the BCS, could still get left out in the rain holding a bouquet of soggy flowers when it comes time to name the two contenders for the national title.

The Buckeyes’ weak schedule and even weaker performance versus Michigan Saturday may have the Bowl Championship Series seeking out a sexy one-loss SEC school to play Florida State in Pasadena. And if that doesn’t do it, a loss to Michigan State in the Big Ten title game will.

The Buckeyes are somehow 5.5-point favorites versus MSU at Lucas Oil Stadium Saturday, a spread that looks even weirder when you consider Ohio State is 0-3 ATS in its last three and was 17-point chalk versus the Wolverines, needing a botched two-point conversion to win the game.

The Spartans took that same Michigan team to the woodshed for a 29-6 waxing as 4-point favorites in Week 10. Michigan State’s defense is a beast of a unit, allowing just 11.8 points on 237.3 yards per game - tops in the country – and is a completely different animal than anything OSU has faced in recent weeks.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Brian Edwards

20* CFB SEC Championship Game

Missouri

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Inside the stats: NIU, OSU expectations high
By MARC LAWRENCE

Each week we take a look inside the numbers, from both a statistical and a pointspread aspect, on the college football and NFL cards.

Here is this week’s report. Enjoy the games.

High Expectations

When Alabama defeated Florida, 28-21, to win the first ever SEC championship game in 1992, it signaled the start of Division-1 college football conference title games.

This week finds a total of seven FBS conference championship games on tap, with no less than two undefeated teams – Northern Illinois and Ohio State, along with four other squads each owning one loss on the season, namely Auburn, Fresno State, Michigan State and Missouri, dotting this year’s itinerary.

The staggering effect of what happens in conference championship games with teams who have dominated on the scoreboard the last two seasons is eye-opening, to say the least.

Our database confirms the notion, finding that teams in conference title games who managed to win 19 or more of their last 22 games are just 9-19-2 ATS since the inception of these championship games.

This week finds Florida State, Northern Illinois, Ohio State and Stanford going up against tough odds.

Worse, when favored by 17 or less points, and playing off a win, these ’pips’ dip to 1-13-2 ATS in these title game roles.

The Huskies and the Buckeyes expectations may be as high as a Benjamin Franklin kite this week, but the likelihood of rewarding their backers is akin to catching lightning in a bottle.

Exxon Valdez

Football teams who have been out gained in each of their last three games are considered to be ‘leaking oil’ when installed as favorites.

These ‘leaking oil’ favorites now stand at 25-32 ATS overall this season, including 20-22 in CFB and 5-10 in the NFL.

According to our Midweek Alert football newsletter this week’s plays would be against Memphis and Rutgers on the college front, along with Kansas City, NY Jets and Tampa Bay in the NFL.

Absolutely Overwhelming

Our NFL Totals Tipsheet has shared the success of OVERS in non-conference games.

A 2-0 sweep last week moves the record on these, these non-conference games (AFC vs. NFC) to 41-13 OVER on season, including a mind-blowing 19-3 OVER the last seven weeks.

This week’s OVER achievers include the Kansas City-Washington, Minnesota-Baltimore, Buffalo-Tampa Bay and NY Giants-San Diego games.

Stat Of The Week

Fresno State is 1-15-1 ATS in games after losing straight-up as a favorite.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Six burning betting questions for NCAAF Championship Saturday
By DAN BERLIN

It’s Championship Week in college football. Here are six burning questions heading into Saturday’s six big matchups, with conference titles and BCS bids on the line.

Oklahoma Sooners at Oklahoma State Cowboys (-9.5, 57)

Will the Sooners be able to continue their domination over the Cowboys?

The bedlam rivalry game has been completely dominated by Oklahoma throughout the decades, with the Sooners holding an 82-18-7 record all-time in the series.

While Oklahoma State head coach Mike Gundy is just 1-7 SU (2-6 ATS) versus the Sooners in his career, his lone victory came in 2011 - the last time OSU faced OU for a chance at a share of the Big 12 championship.

The Cowboys come in playing their best football of the season, fresh off convincing wins against nationally-ranked Baylor and Texas, two teams that have beaten the Sooners this season.

Texas Longhorns at Baylor Bears (-15, 71.5)

After back-to-back bad showings, can the Bears’ offense turn it around?

Baylor and its high-octane offense have limped to the finish line. After a humiliating 49-17 loss to Oklahoma State killed their national title hopes, the Bears barely hung on to defeat TCU 41-38 last week, as the nation’s No. 1 offense was held to under 400 total yards for the first time in 38 games.

But Baylor should get a major boost this Saturday when it returns to Waco, where a record crowd is expected for the last ever BU game at Floyd Casey Stadium. The ninth-ranked Bears are 9-0 SU/ATS in their last nine at home, including five straight wins against ranked opponents.

Missouri Tigers vs. Auburn Tigers (-2, 58)

Is this a possible letdown spot for Auburn or are the Tigers truly a “team of destiny?”

After the “Immaculate Deflection” in the last minute against Georgia and Chris Davis’s 109-yard missed field goal return for a touchdown to defeat the mighty Crimson Tide, it certainly looks like the third-ranked Tigers are destined to win the BCS title in 2013.

But wait just a minute. Those other Tigers from Mizzou may have a little something to say about that.

Missouri is 5-0 SU/ATS on the road in 2013 and QB James Franklin and the Missouri offense looked sharp in last week’s 28-21 win over Texas A&M - one of the big reasons why bettors have pushed the number down from its opening of Auburn as 3-point favorites down to as low as 1.5.

Duke Blue Devils vs. Florida State Seminoles (-29, 62)

Can upstart Duke actually keep it close vs. the top-ranked Seminoles?

David Cutcliffe and the No. 20 Blue Devils might be the feel-good story of the college football season, but they could be in for a rude awakening come Saturday.

Florida State has won 14 straight meetings vs. Duke dating back to 1994. But take a closer look inside the numbers and you’ll find FSU is a perfect 9-0 ATS in games where they were favored against Duke by 30 points or less, and just 1-4 ATS when favored by 31 or more. Saturday’s game opened with FSU as a 30-point favorite and has been bet down to 29 points.

Ohio State Buckeyes vs. Michigan State Spartans (+5.5, 51.5)

Can Ohio State run the ball successfully against MSU’s No. 1 rush defense?

The Buckeyes feature college football’s second best rushing offense (321.3 yards per game), led by RB Carlos Hyde and QB Braxton Miller, who’ve combined for nearly 2,200 yards on the ground this season.

On the other hand, the Spartans boast the nation’s top run defense, allowing a paltry 64.8 yards per game. So who has the edge?

Considering MSU has held 10 of 12 opponents to under 100 yards rushing and has allowed only 46 points over its past six games (7.7 ppg) – just five more points than the Buckeyes gave up to lowly Michigan last week - the Buckeyes and their rushing attack will certainly have their work cut out for them come Saturday.

Stanford Cardinal at Arizona State Sun Devils (-3, 56)

Will home field prove to be the difference for ASU in its rematch with Stanford?

On the heels of a 42-28 loss at Stanford on Sep. 21, revenge will certainly be on the minds of Arizona State when it hosts the Cardinal in the Pac-12 championship game.

The Sun Devils are hot, having won seven straight, but are 0-3 SU (0-2-1 ATS) in their last three versus Stanford, including a 17-13 loss in Tempe back in 2010.

Any doubts surrounding Stanford’s ability to beat a team twice in the same season were answered just last year when it knocked off UCLA 27-24 in the conference championship after defeating the Bruins 35-17 during the 2012 regular season.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Wunderdog Sports Free Pick

Game: Duke vs. Florida State (Saturday 12/07 8:00 PM Eastern)
Pick: Florida State -29 (-110) at bovada

I have ridden with Florida State on several occasions this season with extremely high point spreads, and this will be no different. Kudos to Duke for having a great season, but they are simply no match for Florida State. These teams have met 18 times and Florida State is 18-0, and 12-6 ATS with the closest game having been 19 points. When Florida State has faced Duke to a line of less than -30 they are 9-0 ATS, winning by an average of 35 points per game. They have faced a Duke team over .500 and are 5-0 ATS in those games, winning by 40.6 points per game. They have even faced some good Duke teams in the 90s and are 3-0 ATS against a Duke team over .700. The bottom line here is that Duke is basically an average to a tick above average from the line of scrimmage, but Florida State is elite on both sides of the ball. The Noles have won seven of their last eight games overall by 30 points. Those blowout wins have come against the likes of Florida, Miami and Clemson - and two of those were on the road. Florida State has held 10 opponents to 14 points or less, while getting to 48 points or more nine times. Last year, they beat the Blue Devils 48-7 despite being -4 in turnovers, and Duke has simply not closed the gap enough to fare much better in this one. Unbeaten favorites from -21.5 to -31 points that are on at least a seven game winning streak are 73-40 ATS, including 6-1 ATS this year, and 29-4 ATS since 2007. Lay the bundle and play on Florida State to claim the ACC crown.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

GoodFella | CFB Side - Saturday, Dec 7 2013 10:00PM
129 Utah St. 3.5(-110) SportsInterAction vs 130 Fresno St. triple-dime bet

Analysis:
"CFB GOM" (3.5*) on UTAH ST. +3.5

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Steve Fezzik

Oklahoma/Oklahoma State Under

[Can'tPickAWinner]

The Sports Nostradamus Final Card

CFB
Rutgers
Over Baylor
Over Rice
Missouri
Ohio State

[Can'tPickAWinner]

LA Syndicate

CFB
Under Oklahoma
Arizona State & Over
Utah State

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Chicago Syndicate

Added
CFB
Under UConn
UL Lafayette
Under Oklahoma
Missouri & Over
Over Duke

[Can'tPickAWinner]

College Football odds Week 15 Opening Line Report

If your heart has recovered from a wild weekend of college football in Week 14, well, have your defibrillator ready, because there are still some big games to come in Week 15. Leading the way are two teams that, before the season, almost no one would have projected to reach the Southeastern Conference championship game: Auburn and Missouri, in a battle of Tigers at Atlanta’s Georgia Dome.

Auburn provided a ridiculously riveting finish to Saturday’s Iron Bowl, returning a field goal for a touchdown in a 34-28 shocker over No. 1 Alabama. This is the same squad that went 3-9 SU and 4-8 ATS last year, including 0-8 SU and 2-6 ATS in the SEC. This year, Auburn is 11-1 SU and is tied for the second-best ATS record in the country at 10-2.

Missouri is also 11-1 SU and fields the No. 1 spread-covering unit in the nation at 10-1-1. The Tigers were 5-7 SU and ATS last year, but they’ve rocketed to the top of the SEC behind quarterback James Franklin and a defense that allows just 19.4 ppg (14th). Mizzou wrapped up the regular season by holding high-octane Texas A&M and QB Johnny Manziel to just 21 points in a 28-21 victory Saturday.

Peter Korner, founder of Nevada-based odds service The Sports Club, says the Crimson Tide being out of the picture makes this contest far more intriguing.

“It turns out to be a great game which will be highly competitive and a real toss-up as to who will win. I think this game is much more interesting now that Alabama is out. With that, the majority of oddsmakers all made this a pick ‘em, and that's what we sent out. Auburn has really turned on the afterburners to be where it is, and Missouri has been strong all year. We'll let the bettors decide this one.”

Ohio State Buckeyes vs. Michigan State Spartans (+6)

The Buckeyes allowed a middling Michigan squad to put up 41 points and come a 2-point conversion away from an upset that would have rivaled Auburn’s shocker over Alabama. But even if the 42-41 win was far tighter than expected, with Ohio State laying 17 points, the Buckeyes (12-0 SU, 6-5-1 ATS) have still won 24 consecutive games SU heading into the Big Ten title game at Lucas Oil Field in Indianapolis.

The Spartans, meanwhile, grinded out a 14-3 home win Saturday as a 17-point chalk against Minnesota. Michigan State (11-1 SU, 7-4-1 ATS) has won eight in a row (6-2 ATS), holding opponents to 14 points or less six times in that stretch, and five of those foes scored only in single digits. The Spartans have the nation’s No. 1 total defense (273.3 ypg), No. 1 rushing defense (64.4 ypg) and No. 4 scoring defense (11.8 ppg).

“We're all wary that Ohio State has no defense and Michigan State has a top-notch defensive unit,” Korner said. “Our range went from Ohio State -4.5 to -7. We sent out Ohio State -6. Smart money will be on Michigan State, squares will be on the favorite. Hopefully it will balance out and we get good two-way action right where it's at.”

Oklahoma Sooners at Oklahoma State Cowboys (-13)

The host Cowboys are gunning for the Big 12 title and an automatic berth in a BCS bowl, but just playing the archrival Sooners in the Bedlam game is generally motivation enough. If not for a toe-stubbing loss at West Virginia back in September, Oklahoma State (10-1 SU, 8-3 ATS) would be firmly in the hunt for the national championship game. Since that setback, the Pokes have gone 7-0 SU and 6-1 ATS, scoring 38 points or more five times and winning by two TDs or more six times.

The Sooners (9-2 SU, 6-5 ATS) won their first five games, then went 4-2 down the stretch to fall out of Big 12 title contention. While Korner and his crew have Oklahoma State a double-digit chalk, he said the Sooners could surely make things interesting.

“We were all actually very close on this one, as the numbers ranged from Oklahoma State -12.5 to -14,” he said. “We sent out -13. We're sure dog players will wait and see how high this can go, but both teams are quality squads, and we don't see much movement – if any – until much later in the week.

“The way this year has ended up, I'm pretty sure that Oklahoma could win outright as the double-digit underdog, so we won't be surprised if the Sooners make this a game.”

Duke Blue Devils vs. Florida State Seminoles (-32)

Duke is yet another surprise team to be hanging around at this point of the year, coming off a 10-2 SU regular season and standing tied for second nationally with a 10-2 ATS record, as well. The Blue Devils are on an 8-0 SU run and have cashed in their last seven games, nabbing four outright wins as an underdog, including Saturday’s 27-25 win at North Carolina as a 5-point pup.

Florida State is steaming toward the BCS national championship game, despite sexual assault allegations swirling around star QB Jameis Winston, though no charges have been brought yet. The Seminoles (12-0 SU) have also been a spread-covering machine at 10-2 ATS, winning by at least 27 points in all but one game, so Korner isn’t expecting much out of the ACC championship tilt in Charlotte, N.C.

“This is a real non-game. Our range went from Florida State -30 to -33, and we sent out -32,” he said. “There’s not much to see here. We expect late-week action to be on the favorite, as usual, so we're ignoring the offshore line moves on Sunday. Moving fast and to a lower number this quickly, this early in the week is a joke. Any sports book that follows this is going to be rooting for Duke come Saturday.”