12-7-13

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THE GOLD SHEET
♦♦♦♦ KEY RELEASES ♦♦♦♦
NORTHERN ILLINOIS by 12 over Bowling Green
ARIZONA STATE by 14 over Stanford
MICHIGAN STATE by 4 over Ohio State

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GREEN SHEET
COLLEGE KEY SELECTIONS
RATING 3 UTAH STATE (+3) over Fresno State
RATING 2 FLORIDA STATE (-28½) over Duke
RATING 1 TEXAS (+13½) over Baylor
RATING 1 OKLAHOMA STATE (-10½) over Oklahoma
We rank our Key Selections in order of preference, grading them on a scale of 1 to 5 with 5 being
a top selection.

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POINTWISE
COLLEGE KEY RELEASES
BAYLOR over Texas RATING: 1
OKLAHOMA STATE over Oklahoma RATING: 3
STANFORD over Arizona State RATING: 4
UTAH STATE over Fresno State RATING: 5
RATED "1" PLAYS THIS SEASON: 19-9
TOP 5 COLLEGE THIS YEAR: 44-25

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POWERPLAYS
COLLEGE FOOTBALL
4* MISSOURI 30 AUBURN 27
3* CONNECTICUT 21 MEMPHIS 18

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POWERSWEEP
KEY SELECTION
Big 10 CHAMPIONSHIP GAME • LUCAS OIL STADIUM • INDIANAPOLIS, IN
3* † Ohio St over Michigan St. - OSU has won 8 of the L/9 in the series and has covered
6 of the L/8. In 2008 we used our 5H Oct GOM on OSU (-3) and they delivered a 45-7 win.
In 2011 MSU had 24 Ohio natives on its roster (27 this year!) and upset the Buckeyes 10-7
(+3) at the Shoe. LY OSU ret’d the favor winning 17-16 (+2’) LY at MSU. TY’s B10 champ gm is
easily the most important B10 gm since #1 OSU beat #2 UM back in 2006. A win here puts the
Buckeyes in the BCS Champ gm while MSU looks to be in good shape for their 1st Rose Bowl
appearance s/’87 win or lose. The Buckeyes come in winners of 24 str gms (longest streak s/
USC ‘03-’05) but LW had to hold on for dear life over archrival UM 42-41 (-16) getting an int
on a 2-pt conv w/:32 left. It will be Irresistible Force vs Immovable Object here as the Buckeye
ground gm is arguably the best in the country avg 321 ypg (7.0) and will be taking on a MSU
rush D that is all’g just 65 ypg (2.2). The Spartans finished an unbeaten B10 season for the
1st time s/’66 beating Minnesota 14-3 (-16’) LW. While they have held 5 of their L/6 opp w/o a
td, that one opp, Neb, was one of the better offenses they faced TY (#39). They all’d 28 pts and
392 yds incl 182 on the ground and won the gm due to 5 Husker TO’s. Now they take our #4
off that is avg 48 ppg and 531 ypg. Meyer has the big gm exp, the Bucks had a wake-up call
LW, now face a QB that can’t beat them w/his legs and their pass rush can tee off on MSU QB
Cook (avg 4.6 sks per gm L/5). OSU heads to Pasadena and we’re not talking about playing
on January 1st.
FORECAST: Ohio St by 11 over Michigan St.

OTHER SELECTION
PAC-12 CHAMPIONSHIP GAME • SUN DEVIL STADIUM • TEMPE, AZ
2* Stanford over ARIZONA ST - This is the only rematch this year in a championship gm as
Stanford beat Arizona St 42-28 (-6’) back in mid-Sept on the Farm. The gm should go down as
a misleading statistical gm. Some may point out that ASt had a 417-391 yd and 20-19 FD edge
but all you had to do was watch the 1H of the gm. SU absolutely dominated with a 256-103 yd
edge and led 29-0 at the half. They extended it to 39-7 before they put the backups in and ASt
got 197 of their yds on 3 td drives. We easily cashed our Button #9 NCSportsline Comp Totals
play on the OVER. We also leaned with Stanford in the write-up prior to the gm calling them
to win by DD’s as they have won 3 str in the series (2-1 ATS). This is Stanford’s 2nd str P12
Champ gm as they beat UCLA 27-24 (-9) LY. However, that gm was at home and this will be on
the road. LW they beat ND 27-20 (-15’) as they dominated the LOS w/a 261-64 rush yd edge.
Speaking of domination, the Sun Devils turned LW’s Territorial Cup into a run away w/a 58-21
win (-11) over Arizona. However, it should be noted that ASt only had 22-20 FD and 478-424
yd edges as they benefitted from 4 UA TO’s. They are 7-0 SU/5-2 ATS at home TY outscoring
their opp by an avg of 49-21 (+156 ypg). This is only the 3rd time Stanford has been an AD in
the L/3 yrs. They are 1-0-1 ATS in that role taking a ND tm that played in the BCS Champ gm
LY to OT before losing 20-13 (+7) and then upsetting #1 Oregon 17-14 (+20’) in OT. They have
more exp in big-time gms, have our #3 D and will benefit from an ASt tm most likely playing
w/o RB Marion Grice (DNP LW) who leads the tm in rushing, is #3 in rec and has 20 td’s.
FORECAST: Stanford by 1 over ARIZONA ST

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RED SHEET
COLLEGE FOOTBALL
Missouri 38 - Auburn 31 - (4:00 - CBS - @ Georgia Dome, Atlanta) -- Line opened at Auburn minus 3, and is now minus 1½. There cannot have been very many "public" teams as popular as
these War Eagles of Auburn, who are in not only in off a pair of, no, not improbable, but miraculous wins, 1st in the "Immaculate Deflection" last-minute win over Georgia, & 2nd in a 109
yd FG return vs mighty Alabama, on the game's final play. This squad has been simply superb
throughout the season, & not just in those spectacular shockers. But the public apparently hasn't
bought into their "team of destiny" aura, as the spot has actually come down 1½ pts. Lost in all
of this, of course, are the Mizzou Tigers, who are just an OT loss to SoCaro, in which they lost
their QB (Franklin), from 12-0. How about putting the wraps on Manziel & Co in LW's finale. Mizzou
a perfect 5-0 SU & ATS on the road.
RATING 89: MISSOURI

Michigan State 33 - Ohio State 30 - (8:15 - FOX - @ Lucas Oil Stadium, Indianapolis) -- Line
opened at Ohio State minus 6½, and is now minus 5½. Similar to the above contest, the
Buckeyes of Ohio State (like Auburn) have had more than their share of ink. But, whereas the
Tigers have greatly emerged the past few weeks, the Bucks have been in the spotlight all season
long (both deservedly so). Both QB Miller, & RB Hyde seem unstoppable at times, & certainly
performed to the max in last week's
barnburning win over arch-rival Michigan. But that OSU "D" was stung for 603 yds by the Wolves,
& therein lies the edge for the Spartans of Michigan State, who simply field the best "D" in the
nation, & possess just one setback all season, by 4 pts to Notre Dame, while holding the Irish to
13 FDs & 221 yds. Spartans allowed 12 FDs & 168 yds in earlier 29-6 win over Michigan. Upset!
RATING 89: MICHIGAN STATE

BAYLOR 56 - Texas 27 - (3:30 - FOX) -- Line opened at Baylor minus 14, and is now minus
13½. This one, of course, is a "no brainer". Whenever the Bears play host, we simply don't miss
placing they among our highest plays. Thus far, they've been golden, while averaging 65 pts, 719
yds at home. And for the clincher, note covering to the tune of 10-1 as hosts, with a 22 ppg ATS
edge as '13 homer. The 23rd ranked
Steers have had their moments, to be sure, including that shocking upset of Oklahoma (29½ pt
cover), but have played only 3 RGs, previously, covering just 1 (by a pt in OT win at West
Virginia).
RATING 88: BAYLOR

OKLAHOMA STATE 47 - Oklahoma 24 - (12:00 - ABC) -- Line opened at Oklahoma State minus
10½ and is still minus 10½. As our subscribers are well aware, we have ridden these Cowboys in
recent years, with highly profitable returns. The continual triumvirate of superb talent in all
phases of a nearly unstoppable offense, has been their trademark. But this season, they seem to
have lacked their normal killer
instinct, especially after that scandal broke. However, on track they surely are, with their current
7-0 SU run, & 6-0 ATS run, by 105½ pts! LY, it went into OT (51-48 Okie win). Series host is 10-
4 ATS.
RATING 88: OKLAHOMA STATE

[Can'tPickAWinner]

SPORTS REPORTER
BIG TEN CHAMPIONSHIP
Lucas Oil Stadium – Indianapolis, IN
BEST BET
MICHIGAN STATE over OHIO STATE by 8
There seems to be a popular argument among people who care about such
things, about whether or not Ohio State “belongs” in the national championship
game. Please count us among those who don’t care (because that game
is an overrated fraud), but among those who say that defense wins championships.
Ohio State has allowed 24 points or more in wins vs. Cal, Wisconsin,
Northwestern, Illinois and Michigan this season. Michigan State has allowed
0, 3, 6, 6 and 3 points in five of its last six games. Although the Spartans
allowed 28 points to both Indiana and Nebraska – who operate ‘unconventional’
offenses somewhat similar to Ohio State’s – Michigan State managed
to win and cover those games and score 41 points each time. Sure, some
of the points were special teams- and defense-generated, but that’s what
Michigan State does. They do a nice job of flipping field position. Ohio State
QB Braxton Miller and RB Carlos Hyde will do a number on Michigan State’s
high statistical ranking against the run. But Ohio State’s defense lost their
captain, safety Christian Bryant, at mid-season, and the offense has often
been forced to out-score opponents since. The defense just allowed a onelegged,
turnover-prone Michigan quarterback to keep that team alive against
the Buckeyes when it had no right to be, given that Michigan’s weak running
game should have helped to create better pass defense. Michigan State does
pro-style offense better than Michigan and offers more balance and more
problems for the Buckeyes’ defense. MICHIGAN STATE, 37-29.

MOUNTAIN WEST CHAMPIONSHIP
RECOMMENDED
UTAH STATE over *FRESNO STATE by 7
If Fresno State was a running team, then we’d make Utah State a Best Bet.
Utah State shuts down run-reliant offenses like nobody’s business. But Fresno
State is a pass-first offense, with a passing attack ranked #1 in the nation.
Led by QB David Carr, the offense has a 45-7 TD-INT ratio and they put the
ball in the air 51 times per game. They don’t wait until they fall behind to
throw the ball. They come out throwing and throw some more. In a season
where Utah State has played against the run-laden option offenses of Air
Force and New Mexico, facing Fresno State would have to make you worry
a little. However, note that Utah State blasted pass-happy San Jose State
40-12 earlier this season, on the road, and just held Wyoming’s good pass
offense to 7 points a week ago. Hmmm…very interesting, eh? They can do
all right against the pass. They made San Jose’s David Fales a 0-3 TD-INT
person when they faced him. The Fresno State defense suffers because of the
offense’s characteristics, and because the ball is in the air a few too many
times for the Football Gods to approve of, so does Fresno’s overall performance:
They are 2-6 ATS in conference play this season. A favorite with a
defense that ranks #101 in the nation, playing a championship game with an
unbalanced offense against a good defense, seems kind of shaky. If defense
and special teams are meant to turn this game in anyone’s favor, then Utah
State’s two units will be the ones doing it.
UTAH STATE, 37-31.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

WINNING POINTS
COLLEGE FOOTBALL
MISSOURI over AUBURN by 17 (at Atlanta)
(SEC TITLE GAME) Auburn’s storybook season smacks of the spine-tingling serials
that inspired filmmaker Stephen Spielberg. Under Gus Malzahn, the Indiana
Jones of his profession, the Auburn Tigers have won eight straight, the last two in
stunning fashion, and forged eight straight covers. And this week, they get to compete
for the SEC title at a friendly venue. The Tigers have 26 players from Georgia
on their roster (four starters) and thousands of alumni in the Atlanta area. But the
cold, hard stats inform us that this “team of destiny” will likely have their bubble
burst in the Georgia Dome. Auburn’s running game is outstanding. With Tre
Mason leading the parade, they average 318.3 ypg. But on virtually every other significant measure, Missouri has a higher placement. It would seem to matter greatly
that that none of the starters in the Auburn secondary stands taller than 5’11”.
Earlier this year, Auburn had no antidote for 6’5” Mike Evans. The Texas A & M
standout shredded Auburn for 287 receiving yards. Missouri’s top three receivers
are 6’6”, 6’5”, and 6’4” and they can stretch the field after winning the jump balls.
Auburn DC Ellis Johnson (yes, the same fellow who couldn’t win a game at
Southern Miss) can devise schemes to clog the passing lanes but he can’t get his
defenders to grow any taller. Akin to the Tigers of Auburn, the Tigers of Missouri
have also been a money-maker: 9-2 ATS including a perfect 5-0 on the road. Gary
Pinkel’s troops should bring home the bacon. MISSOURI 45-28.

***BEST BET
MICHIGAN ST. over OHIO ST. by 10 (at Indianapolis)
(BIG 10 TITLE GAME) By some strange alchemy, Ohio State finds itself one win
removed from a likely invite to the BCS title game. Urban Meyer is no stranger to
big games, having won two national titles at Florida, and his teams have thrived in
this price range. Going back to his days at Bowling Green, Meyer is 38-19-1 ATS
as a single-digit favorite or underdog. But cracks have developed in the OSU
armor. On the season, the Buckeyes have allowed 4,270 yards, an average of only
356 yards per game, but nearly 35 percent of this yield has come in the last three
games. On offense, the Buckeyes rank first in rushing among teams from BCS
leagues thanks to Carlos Hyde and the elusive Braxton Miller. But it figures that
both will encounter tough sledding running into what is statistically the nation’s
premier stop-unit. Iowa’s Mark Weisman, a power back in the mold of Hyde (albeit
not quite as good), managed only nine rushing yards against these Spartans. On
the season, opposing runners are averaging only 2.23 yards per carry and MSU has
allowed only five rushing touchdowns all season. On offense, Michigan State is not
in Ohio State’s class, but QB Connor Cook has evolved into a capable field general
and RB Jeremy Lankford has quietly forged a skein of seven 100-yard rushing
games. Mark Dantonio’s crew has won every league game by double digits and
brings more to the table than the 2012 edition that succumbed to Ohio State by a
score of 17-16 in Urban Meyer’s first Big Ten game. MICHIGAN STATE 31-21.

** PREFERRED
Connecticut* over Memphis by 10
Memphis has had one of the stronger defenses in the American Athletic
Conference. Earlier this year, the Tigers held four straight foes – Middle Tennessee,
Arkansas State, Central Florida, and Houston – under 200 yards. More recently,
Memphis limited Louisville to 342 yards. But the offense didn’t hold up their end
of the bargain and the defense eventually cracked. Last week, Memphis was outyarded
534-228 in a 20-point home loss to Temple. After opening 0-9, the
Connecticut players reportedly vowed to win their final three games. This would
be no great feat considering the tepid opposition, but let’s give the Huskies their
props for successfully completing the first two legs of the journey. The week after
holding Temple to 101 yards and zero points in the second half, the Huskies
knocked off bowl eligibility-seeking Rutgers. In those games, UConn allowed only
three sacks, significant as pass protection was previously an area of weakness. By all
indications, the Huskies under interim coach T.J. Weist still have a lot of fire in
their belly. We’re not so sure about Memphis.
CONNECTICUT 23-13.

Fresno State* over Utah State by 14
(MOUNTAIN WEST CHAMPIONSHIP GAME) Fresno walked a tightrope
while building a 10-0 ledger and perhaps it was inevitable that they would tumble.
They crashed hard, surrendering 736 yards and 36 first downs in a 62-52 setback
at San Jose. Conventional wisdom says now is a good time to bet against them, and
even if the Bulldogs had remained unbeaten, their shabby defensive numbers
would make them an iffy proposition. However, we happen to think the oddsmaker
over-reacted to last week’s developments. Yes, Utah State’s defensive is superior,
but because Fresno State has played only 11 games, their defenders have actually
been on the field for fewer plays. USU QB Darrell Garretson has played well,
cushioning the loss of Chuckie Keaton, but Fresno State, needless to say, has a huge
edge at quarterback with Derek Carr. And while Utah State shut down Wyoming,
they were playing a team hampered by injuries in the offensive line. Fresno State
has no such worries, barring any late developments. We like the host in the inaugural
MWC title game.
FRESNO STATE 38-24.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Saturday's NCAAF betting cheat sheet: Afternoon action

Marshall Thundering Herd at Rice Owls (+6.5, 61)

The Rice Owls are ranked 62nd on offense, averaging 420.5 yards per game. The Owls are averaging 239.5 yards rushing and 181.0 yards passing so far
this season.

The Marshall Thundering Herd are ranked ninth on offense, averaging 513.2 yards per game. The Thundering Herd are averaging 219.9 yards rushing and
293.3 yards passing so far this season.

LINE: Rice opened as 4.5-point home dogs and have move slightly to +6.5. The total is up to 61.
WEATHER: There is a 50 percent chance of rain with a 12 mph wind blowing towards teh South end zone.
TRENDS:

* Marshall is 4-0 ATS in its last four games versus a team with a winning record.
* Over is 6-0 in Marshall's last six games overall.
* Under is 6-0 in Rice's last six games versus a team with a winning record.

Oklahoma Sooners at Oklahoma State Cowboys (-10, 57)

The Sooners defeated the Mountaineers early in the season but went on to lose to Texas and Baylor - two teams that Oklahoma State defeated - by a combined margin of 77-32. This season, Oklahoma sports a resume that includes victories over Notre Dame and and Texas Tech, as well as last week's 41-31 win over Kansas State.

The Cowboys have won seven straight games since their only loss of the season - a 30-21 defeat against a West Virginia team that wound up 4-8. The Cowboys have scored at least 20 points in 50 consecutive contests, but their defense quietly is much improved, holding Kansas, Texas and Baylor to an average of 12 points over the last three games.

LINE: The line opened at -10.5 and has moved to -10. The total opened at 58 and has been bet down to 57.
WEATHER: There is a 14 percent chance of precipitation with temperatures in the high teens.
TRENDS:

* Oklahoma is 6-2 ATS in its last eight meetings.
* Favorite is 6-2 ATS in their last eight meetings.
* Oklahoma State is 6-0 ATS in its last six games overall.


Central Florida Knights at Southern Methodist Mustangs (OFF)

Blake Bortles' 167.3 passer rating has him in elite company, ranked seventh in the nation and his 276.2 passing yards per game falls behind only Gilbert and Louisville's Teddy Bridgewater in the conference. Central Florida's offense ranks 30th in the nation, averaging 34.6 points.

SMU quarterback Garrett Gilbert, is listed as questionable with a knee sprain. While the Mustangs have proven they can score in bunches with Gilbert under center, last week's goose egg against Houston is a concern, as is SMU's conference-worst 34.8 points per game, especially against the Knights' offense.

LINE: The line is currently off the board.
WEATHER: There is a 40 percent chance of ice pellets with an eight mph cross field wind.
TRENDS:
* Favorite is 4-0-1 ATS in their last five meetings.
* Home team is 3-0-1 ATS in their last four meetings.
* Central Florida is 3-1-1 ATS in its last five meetings.

Memphis Tigers at Connecticut Huskies (+1, 43)

Memphis has been ranked in the top 20 in the nation in total defense for most of the season but slipped to 27th after giving up a season highs for total yards (534) and points (41) to Temple.

Redshirt freshman quarterback Casey Cochran took over the starting job three weeks ago and has rejuvenated the offense as the Huskies have put up 21 or more points in three straight games after doing so only twice in their first eight contests.

LINE: UConn opened at +1 dogs. The total is currently at 43.
WEATHER: There is a 12 percent chance of rain with a eight mph wind blowing towards the Southeast end zone.
TRENDS:

* Memphis is 5-1 ATS in its last six road games.
* Under is 5-0 in Memphis' last five road games.
* Under is 4-0 in Connecticut's last four home games.

Texas Longhorns at Baylor Bears (-16.5, 71.5)

The Longhorns have scored at least 30 points in seven of their last eight contests, thanks in large part to an improved rushing attack that rolled up 281 yards and three touchdowns against Texas Tech on Thanksgiving night.

The Bears, who are currently averaging 55.4 points and 635.1 yards, have received a stunningly efficient season from Perry, as the junior quarterback has 3,557 passing yards with 28 touchdowns and two interceptions, in addition to 11 rushing scores.

LINE: Baylor opened at -13.5 and have been bet up to -16.5. The total opened at 73.5 and have moved down to 71.5.
WEATHER: There is a 40 percent chance of ice pellets with a 10 mph cross field wind.
TRENDS:

* Over is 4-1 in the last five meetings.
* Road team is 4-1 ATS in their last five meetings.
* Texas is 1-5 ATS in its last six meetings.

Missouri Tigers vs Auburn Tigers +1.5, 59)

Game will be played at the Georgia Dome in Atlanta, Georgia

Missouri averages 489.5 total yards and rank 18th in the nation in rushing (236.9) with Henry Josey leading the way (951 yards, 13 TDs). The defense is tied for fourth in the nation with 37 sacks, has forced 27 turnovers and has at least one takeaway in 42 consecutive games, the longest active streak in the FBS.

Tre Mason, the SEC's leading rusher with 1,317 yards and 18 TDs, and dual threat quarterback Nick Marshall (1,627 passing yards, 11 TDs, 5 INTs; 922 rushing yards, 10 TDs) lead an offense that ranks fifth in rushing (318.3) and 15th in total yards (491).

LINE: Auburn opened at -1.5 and has moved to +1.5. The total is up to 59.
WEATHER: N/A.
TRENDS:

* Missouri is 6-1 ATS versus teams with a winning record.
* Auburn is 7-0 ATS in its last seven conference games.
* Over is 6-1 in Missouri's last seven games overall.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Saturday's NCAAF betting cheat sheet: Evening action

South Florida Bulls at Rutgers Scarlet Knights (-4, 46.5)

South Florida hasn't won at Rutgers since 2005 and will head north without two seniors on defense. Freshman quarterback Mike White (79-of-144 for 942 yards,
three touchdowns, eight interceptions) - the team's fourth starting quarterback of the season - will make his fifth straight start.

The Scarlet Knights will likely be without Leonte Carroo (upper body), who is a touchdown away from tying the school's single-single receiving TD record. The Scarlet Knights are ranked seventh in the country in rushing yards allowed (102.3) but are minus-10 in turnovers.

LINE: Rutgers opened at -7 but have moved down to -4. The total is currently at 46.5.
WEATHER: There is a 12 percent of rain.
TRENDS:

* Underdog is 7-1 ATS in their last eight meetings.
* South Florida is 0-6 ATS in the last six meetings.
* Under is 9-1 in Rutgers' last 10 games following a SU loss.

Standford Cardinal at Arizona State Sun Devils (-3, 56)

The Cardinal boast an impressive resume that includes victories over Washington, UCLA, Oregon State, Oregon and Notre Dame, in addition to their earlier win against Arizona State.Stanford ranks 13th in the country in points allowed (19 per game) and has yielded no more than 20 points in any of its last six contests.

The Sun Devils improved to 7-0 at home last week with a convincing 58-21 victory over Arizona, as they led 30-7 at the half and cruised despite the absence of leading rusher Marion Grice (leg). D.J. Foster led the way with 124 rushing yards and two touchdowns, helping Arizona State improve its scoring output for the fourth straight game (20, 30, 38 and 58).

LINE: The Sun Devils opened as 3.5-point home faves and have moved slightly to -3. The total opened at 56.
WEATHER: There is a 10 percent chance of rain with a 10 mph wind blowing across the field.
TRENDS:

* Favorite is 5-0-1 ATS in their last six meetings.
* Home team is 3-0-1 ATS in their last four meetings.
* Over is 5-2 in the last seven meetings at Arizona State.

Duke Blue Devils vs Florida State Seminoles (-29.5, 62.5)

The game will be played at Bank of America Stadium, Charlotte, North Carolina.

The No. 20 ranked Blue Devils, who have won eight in a row, were picked to finish last in the Coastal Division and are heavy underdogs Saturday, but have come from behind to win their past four contests.

The Seminoles, who ascended to the No. 1 ranking after Alabama lost at Auburn last weekend, average 53.7 points per game. Quarterback Jameis Winston is a frontrunner for the Heisman Trophy, averaging a touchdown pass every 9.1 pass attempts for a Florida State offense that has scored 50 or more points seven times in 12 games.

LINE: The line opened at Florida State -28.5 and moved up to -29.5. The total opened at 61.5 and has jumped up to 62.5.
WEATHER: There is a 76 percent chance of rain with a 9 mph wind blowing across the field.
TRENDS:

* Favorite is 5-0 ATS in their last five meetings.
* Road team is 7-2 ATS in their last nine meetings.
* Blue Devils are 0-5 ATS in their last five meetings.

Louisiana Lafayette at South Alabama (-3, 58.5)

The UL Lafayette Ragin' Cajuns are ranked 42 on offense, averaging 443.7 yards per game. The Ragin' Cajuns are averaging 220.2 yards rushing and 223.5 yards passing so far this season.

The South Alabama Jaguars are ranked 48 on offense, averaging 431.2 yards per game. The Jaguars are averaging 171.0 yards rushing and 260.2 yards passing so far this season.

LINE: The line has held steady at South Alabama -3. The total has moved up from 58 to 58.5.
WEATHER: There is a 39 percent chance of rain.
TRENDS:

* UL Lafayette is 0-4 ATS in its last four games overall.
* South Alabama is 5-1 ATS in its last six games following a SU win.
* Over is 8-0-1 in UL Lafayette's last nine games following a SU loss.

Ohio State Buckeyes at Michigan State Spartans (+5, 51.5)

Game will be played at Lucas Oil Stadium, Indianapolis, Indiana

Ohio State has won a school-record 24 straight games but needed a failed two-point try in the final seconds last week to escape Michigan with a one-point victory. Braxton Miller and Carlos Hyde have combined to rush for 1,070 yards and 13 touchdowns over the past three games against Illinois, Indiana and Michigan.

The Spartans boast the nation’s top rushing, total and pass efficiency defense and complement it with the fifth-best turnover margin (plus-15) in FBS. They are also second nationally in third-down defense (28.7 percent) and fourth in scoring defense (11.8 points per game).

LINE: The line opened +5.5 and is now +5. The total hasn't moved from 51.5.
WEATHER: N/A.
TRENDS:

* Under is 4-1 in the last five meetings
* Ohio State is 6-2-1 ATS in its last nine meetings.
* Road team is 5-0 ATS in their last five meetings.

Utah State Aggies at Fresno State Bulldogs (-2.5, 60.5)

The Aggies were expected to struggle after losing starting quarterback Chuckie Keeton to a season-ending knee injury, but they rallied behind freshman backup Darell Garretson, senior running back Joey DeMartino (12 touchdowns) and a stellar defense.

Fresno State's offense ranks fourth nationally in scoring at 47.3 points per game, and senior quarterback Derek Carr has thrown 45 touchdowns with only five interceptions.

LINE: The Bulldogs opened as 3-point home faves and are now -2.5. The total is currently 60.5.
WEATHER: There is a 10 percent chance of rain.
TRENDS:

* Utah State is 5-2 ATS in its last seven meetings.
* Underdog is 6-1 ATS in their last seven meetings.
* Fresno State is 1-5 ATS in its last six home games.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

College football betting weather report: Saturday's forecasts

Find out how weather will impact your college football bets for Saturday's matchups:

Marshall Thundering Herd at Rice Owls (+6.5, 60.5)

Forecasts are calling for a 50 percent chance of rain. Wind will blow toward the S endzone at 9 mph.

Oklahoma Sooners at Oklahoma State Cowboys (-10, 57)

Temperatures will be in the high-teens with wind blowing across the field at 6 mph.

Central Florida Knights at SMU Mustangs

Temperatures will be in the low-20s with a 30 percent chance of ice pellets. Wind will blow toward the S endzone at 8 mph.

Memphis Tigers at Connecticut Huskies (Pick, 43)

There is a 30 percent chance of snow for gametime. Temperatures will be in the mid-30s and wind will blow toward the E endzone at 9 mph.

Texas Longhorns at Baylor Bears (-15.5, 71.5)

There is a 30 percent chance of ice pellets with temperatures in the high-20s. Wind will blow across the field at 9 mph.

South Florida Bulls at Rutgers Scarlet Knights (-4, 46.5)

Temperatures will be in the mid-30s with a 19 percent chance of rain. Wind will blow across the field at 6 mph.

Stanford Cardinal at Arizona State Sun Devils (-3, 56)

There is a 55 percent chance of rain in the forecast toward the end of the game. Wind will blow across the field at 10 mph.

Duke Blue Devils vs. Florida State Sun Devils (-29, 62)

There is a 68 percent chance of rain in the forecast with wind blowing across the field at 9 mph.

UL Lafayette Ragin' Cajuns vs. South Alabama Jaguars (-3, 58)

There is a 46 percent chance of rain in the forecast with temperatures in the high-40s. Wind will blow toward the S endzone at 8 mph.

Utah State Aggies vs. Fresno State Bulldogs (-3, 60)

Temperatures will be in the low-30s with partly cloudy skies. Wind will blow toward the S endzone at 3 mph.

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NCAAF betting: Championship game stats and trends
By MARC LAWRENCE

Little did the NCAA realize when they approved college football conference championship games in 1992 how much of an impact it would have on determining the bowl landscape.

With the BCS in its final season, and numerous major bowl slots pending, we turned to our trusted database for an overview of how teams and conferences have fared in these title tilts

Here are some of the findings. Enjoy the games.

Conference Trending

No less than seven FBS conferences will be featuring championship games this weekend.

The Mountain West kicks off its inaugural game, while the Big 10 and the Pac 12 enter into its 3rd year of play.

Looking inside the four conferences with 5 or more of championship play under the belts, trends of note include…

• ACC: favorites of 7 or more points are 0-3 ATS, including 1-2 straight up… .900 or greater teams are 02 SU and ATS… team off a win of 20 or more points are 1-3 ATS. Florida State fits the bill on all three counts.

• CUSA - the favorite in games with teams owning identical records is 2-0 ATS… favorites of 3 or more points are 5-2 ATS… teams who allowed 28 or more points in their last game are 1-4 SU and ATS. Marshall qualifies in all three categories.

• MAC - teams with a win percentage of more than .800 are 1-7-2 ATS… favorites are 3-9-2 ATS. Northern Illinois hopes to improve on both numbers.

• SEC – despite the longest conference history, no particular trend comes to the surface. It is worth noting, however, that teams who manage to score 30 or more points in this game are 15-1 SU and 12-4 ATS. Those who score 20 or fewer points in this title game are 0-14 SU and 1-12-1 ATS.

The Good, the Bad and the Ugly

Oklahoma owns the best record of all teams in conference championship games at 7-1. Arkansas and Ohio University are the worst at 0-3. Unfortunately, neither team will be participating this week.

Arizona State, Duke, Fresno State, Ohio State, Rice and Utah State are all championship game maidens this season.

Of the teams that will be playing, these are their past performance records in title game, in straight up and against the spread sequence:

Auburn (2-2, 2-2); Bowling Green (0-1, 0-1); Florida State (2-1, 1-2); Marshall (3-1, 1-2-1); Michigan State (0-1,1-0); Missouri (0-2, 0-2); Northern Illinois (2-2, 0-3-1) and Stanford (1-0, 0-1).

Top This

Arizona State has won its last eight home games by an average score of 49-19.

Auburn is 6-0 ATS as a favorite of 5 or fewer points.

Bowling Green is 7-0 SU and ATS in its last seven regular season weekday games. The Falcons are also 8-0 SU and ATS in their last eight MAC contests away from home.

Duke’s last outright ACC title was in 1954. The Blue Devils last appearance in an Orange Bowl was in 1958.

In four games against common opponents this season, Marshall won the overall stats by 615 yards. Rice lost the overall stats by 124 yards.

Fresno State is 0-10 ATS at home in games after losing straight up as a favorite.

Missouri has turned the ball over only 7 times in its last nine games.

Northern Illinois is 8-22 SU and 10-19-2 ATS in games versus greater than .700 opponents.

Ohio State head coach Urban Meyer is 31-10 SU and 27-10-4 ATS in his career versus .750 or greater opposition.

Rice is 11-0-1 ATS as a conference home dog when playing off a win.

Stanford is 5-0 ATS as a dog since the 2011 Fiesta Bowl.

Utah State is 14-2 ATS away from home versus winning opponents.

Still Perfect After All These Years

Florida State is 18-0 straight up all-time versus Duke by an average score of 50-15.

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Where the action is: Saturday's NCAAF line moves

Championship Saturday is one of the biggest days for college football betting, despite having limited action on the board. We talk to Mike Perry of Sportsbook.ag about the betting patterns and line adjustments for some of Saturday’s massive matchups:

Missouri Tigers vs. Auburn Tigers – Open: -2.5 Move: +1.5

This line has moved as many four points at some books, with sharp money hitting Missouri hard in the SEC Championship Game.

Auburn, coming off an unbelievable win over Alabama in the Iron Bowl, is primed for a letdown but this massive move may have money coming back on War Eagle before kickoff. According to Perry, Auburn has drawn most of the public money for this game.

“Fifty-seven percent of money on spread is backing Auburn and 60 percent of moneyline cash is on Auburn,” says Perry. “Ninety-five percent of the action on the total is backing the Over.”

Duke Blue Devils vs. Florida State Seminoles – Open: -30, Move: -28.5, Move: -29.5

With some uncertainty around FSU QB Jameis Winston status, early money took this spread down as low as Duke +28.5. But since Winston was cleared of assault charges Thursday, money has shown up on the Seminoles and has brought the line back up to FSU -29.5.

“After just a few hours, we got a small sharp play on Duke, so moved to +29.5. Early Thursday, we moved line in Blue Devils favor to -28.5, bracing for a possible suspension to Jameis Winston,” Perry says. “However, when it was announced that he will not be charged with any crime, the line went back up to -29.5. Sixty-eight percent of the money on the spread is on Duke.”

Ohio State Buckeyes vs. Michigan State Spartans – Open: +6, Move: +5

Early action wasn’t convinced by Ohio State’s undefeated record and trimmed this spread as much as a point at some markets. The Buckeyes have dominated the Spartans at the window in recent games, going 6-2-1 ATS in their last three meetings.

“Sixty percent of the money on spread is backing MSU and 73 percent of the moneyline cash is on the Spartans,” says Perry.

Stanford Cardinal at Arizona State Sun Devils – Open: -4, Move: +3

Action on the underdog has slid this spread to the key number of a field goal. Stanford defeated the Sun Devils, 42-28, at home in Week 4, covering as a 6.5-point home favorite. However, ASU has won seven in a row, posting a 5-2 ATS mark in the stretch.

“Yet another game that has shifted in favor of the underdog,” says Perry. The Sun Devils opened -4 and on Monday morning we got a wiseguy play on the Cardinal for a rather large amount, so moved right to -3. Seventy percent of the money on the spread is on Stanford and 80 percent of moneyline cash is also on Stanford."

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BIG AL 5*
missouri

BIG AL ELITE INFO
mich st

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YourBookiesMoney( Very rare 5* Play probably about 10 a year)

5* Michigan St +5 1/2