12-7-13

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Northcoast

Big Dog - Oklahoma +10

Big 12 POW - Texas +15.5

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River City Sharps

3 Units Marshall -6.5

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Joe Gavazzi

CFB

Baylor

Rice

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Auburn's rushing attack reason to run to betting window

If you’re looking for teams that give you a reason to run to the betting window, then look for the teams that can run. Like Auburn.

There’s a reason the Tigers are tied for the second-best spread-covering mark in the nation, with a 10-2 ATS record. As ESPN noted on its college football Twitter feed, Auburn not only runs, but has far more breakaway runs than any other team in the SEC. The Tigers have 121 rushes of 10 yards or more this season. Missouri is a distant second, but still piled up a respectable 91 runs of 10 or more yards, and Mizzou has the nation’s No. 1 ATS mark at 10-1-1.

Not coincidentally, Auburn and Missouri meet for the SEC title on Saturday at the Georgia Dome.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

NCAAF betting BCS Championship game probabilities

For you futures bettors, Bill Connelly at SBNation picked up the wreckage from last week’s college football action and came up with some probabilities for the BCS title game, based on projected outcomes from this weekend’s conference championship games.

Obviously, the highest probability is that Florida State will face Ohio State, at 63.5 percent. But if any apple carts get upset this weekend, then it gets interesting.

Florida State-Auburn has a 20.5 percent probability, occurring if Ohio State loses to Michigan State. There’s a 12.9 percent chance of Florida State-Missouri, again based on an Ohio State loss. And Alabama fans can take solace in this: If Duke, a 29-point ‘dog, upsets Florida State, and the Buckeyes fall to Michigan State, and Auburn beats Missouri, the BCS title game would be a rematch of last weekend’s wickedly entertaining Iron Bowl: Auburn vs. ‘Bama.

The chances of that happening, writes Connelly: 0.8 percent.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

ALLEN EASTMAN

CFB

3* MISSOURI +2
3* OKLA ST -10

5-Unit College Football Game of the Week
FRESNO ST. -3.5

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Marco D'Angelo

3 CFB Plays On Sports X Radio

Missouri+pts
Stanford+pts
Utah State+pts

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Oklahoma at Oklahoma State What bettors need to know

Oklahoma Sooners at Oklahoma State Cowboys (-10, 57)

Oklahoma State's players never need any extra motivation when they face Oklahoma, but the possibility of a conference title and a BCS berth is simply too attractive to ignore. The No. 6 Cowboys host the 15th-ranked Sooners on Saturday with just about everything on the line for Oklahoma State - not the least of which is bragging rights. "I want to go out with the 'W,'" Cowboys senior fullback Kye Staley said. "It's for a lot of big things. It's for a Big 12 championship and a berth in a BCS bowl. We're just going out with a lot of intensity, a lot of focus. We're getting ready to game plan and getting ready for OU."

The Cowboys have won seven straight games since their only loss of the season - a 30-21 defeat against a West Virginia team that wound up 4-8. The Sooners defeated the Mountaineers early in the season but went on to lose to Texas and Baylor - two teams that Oklahoma State defeated - by a combined margin of 77-32. "They played better football than us this year, there's no doubt," Oklahoma center Gabe Ikard said of the Cowboys, adding "but we don't see ourselves as an underdog in this game."

TV: Noon, ET, ABC.

LINE: The Cowboys opened as 10.5-point faves and are now -10. The total opened 58 and is down to 57.

WEATHER: Temperatures will be in the high-teens with wind blowing across the field at 6 mph.

ABOUT OKLAHOMA (9-2, 6-2 Big 12): The Sooners trailed their rival the entire way last season until Brennan Clay's decisive touchdown run in overtime that gave Oklahoma a 51-48 victory. This season, Oklahoma sports a resume that includes victories over Notre Dame and and Texas Tech, as well as last week's 41-31 win over Kansas State that made Bob Stoops the Sooners' all-time wins leader (158). Clay ran for a career-high 200 yards and two touchdowns against the Wildcats after totaling 193 rushing yards and one score over his previous five games.

ABOUT OKLAHOMA STATE (10-1, 7-1): The Cowboys have had an extra week to rest since dismantling Baylor 49-17 behind Clint Chelf's 370 passing yards and three scores and Staley's two rushing TDs. Chelf, who lost his starting job earlier this season, has completed 74.5 percent of his passes with five touchdowns and one interception over his last two games. The Cowboys have scored at least 20 points in 50 consecutive contests, but their defense quietly is much improved, holding Kansas, Texas and Baylor to an average of 12 points over the last three games.

TRENDS:
* Sooners are 6-2 ATS in their last eight meetings.
* Cowboys are 6-0 ATS in their last six conference games.
* Under is 4-0 in Cowboys last four games in December.
* Over is 4-1 in Sooners last 5 games overall.

EXTRA POINTS:
1. Oklahoma State has won nine straight home games and is 18-1 in its last 19 games at Boone Pickens Stadium.

2. With one more win, the Cowboys seniors will become the winningest class in Oklahoma State history.

3. Oklahoma leads the series 82-18-7, including 38-7-5 in Stillwater.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Texas at Baylor What bettors need to know

Texas Longhorns at Baylor Bears (-15.5, 71.5)

Baylor's BCS dreams are hanging by a thread, but the No. 7 Bears - and their opponent Saturday, No. 24 Texas - can each still win the Big 12 title with a victory this weekend. If Oklahoma State loses to Oklahoma earlier Saturday, then either the Bears or the visiting Longhorns can win the conference championship outright. If Oklahoma State wins, Baylor will try to salvage a BCS at-large berth after scuffling to the finish line the last two weeks.

The Bears, who have not won an outright league title since 1980, were dominated 49-17 by Oklahoma State on Nov. 23 and barely squeaked by a 4-8 Texas Christian team last week. Still, coach Art Briles knows that an outright league title and a BCS berth would be extremely significant for his blossoming program, saying "it would be tremendous for Baylor University, for our football team and everybody that loves this university. It would be one of the defining moments, I think, for Baylor football." Texas also could sneak into the BCS party with a win and a loss by Oklahoma State, although the Longhorns need to start faster after falling behind at least 7-0 in each of their last three games.

TV: 3:30 p.m. ET, Fox.

LINE: Baylor opened -13.5 and is up to -15.5. The total is down two points from the opening 73.5.

WEATHER: Temperatures will be in the high-20s. There is a 30 percent chance of ice pellets in the forecast..

ABOUT TEXAS (8-3, 7-1 Big 12): The Longhorns have scored at least 30 points in seven of their last eight contests, thanks in large part to an improved rushing attack that rolled up 281 yards and three touchdowns against Texas Tech on Thanksgiving night. Case McCoy threw a pair of touchdowns against the Red Raiders and perhaps more importantly did not throw an interception for the first time in six games. On the defensive side of the ball, Baylor quarterback Bryce Perry will be under constant duress from Texas' talented tandem of defensive ends, Jackson Jeffcoat and Cedric Reed, who have combined for 19 sacks this season.

ABOUT BAYLOR (10-1, 7-1): Despite a pair of disappointing performances the last two weeks, Baylor has a chance to break the all-time record for points per game (56, 1944 Army) and yards per game (624.9, 1989 Houston). The Bears, who are currently averaging 55.4 points and 635.1 yards, have received a stunningly efficient season from Perry, as the junior quarterback has 3,557 passing yards with 28 touchdowns and two interceptions, in addition to 11 rushing scores. A fast start for Texas is even more critical when you consider that the average halftime score for the Bears this season is Baylor leading its opponent 34.9 to 9.7.

TRENDS:
* Over is 4-1 in the last five meetings.
* Longhorns are 1-5 ATS in their last six meetings.
* Under is 5-1 in Longhorns last six games overall.
* Bears are 10-3 ATS in their last 13 conference games.

EXTRA POINTS:
1. Texas has won 17 of the last 20 meetings, including a 56-50 victory last season.

2. Longhorns K Anthony Fera has made 15 straight field goals, tying the school record set by Phil Dawson in 1996-97.

3. The Bears have never won 11 games in a season, finishing with 10 victories in 1980 and 2011

[Can'tPickAWinner]

SEC Championship: What bettors need to know

Missouri Tigers vs Auburn Tigers (+1.5, 59)

Game will be played at the Georgia Dome, Atlanta, Georgia.

The two most surprising teams in the Southeastern Conference all season, No. 5 Missouri and No. 3 Auburn square off for the league title Saturday at the Georgia Dome. The teams combined for just two conference victories a year ago but now find themselves a win away from playing in a BCS bowl - and potentially the national championship game. The winner will find itself paying close attention to the ACC and Big Ten title games Saturday night in hopes Florida State or Ohio State will lose and clear the path for the SEC champion to leap into the top two in the BCS standings.

Auburn's unlikely path to the championship game has included eight consecutive victories, culminating with last week's 34-28 win over bitter rival Alabama in which Chris Davis caught a missed field goal in the back of the end zone and returned it for the winning touchdown on the final play of the game. "That is our biggest challenge as a team," first-year Auburn coach Gus Malzahn told reporters of his team's task of shifting its focus after such a dramatic win. "It was a very emotional win. It was a physical game, but we have to put it behind us and we have to put all of our attention on Missouri." Missouri also had to finish on a high note to play its way to Atlanta, beating Texas A&M 28-21 at home a week after a 24-10 victory at Mississippi to earn a spot in the title game in just its second year in the league.

TV: 4 p.m. ET, CBS.

LINE: Auburn opened as a 1.5-point fave but has been bet to +1.5. The total is up one point to 59.

WEATHER: N/A.

ABOUT MISSOURI (11-1, 10-1-1 ATS): The Tigers surged to the top of the SEC East on the strength of a balanced offense led by senior quarterback James Franklin, who has passed for 1,952 yards with 16 touchdowns and four interceptions and rushed for 412 yards and 3 TDs, and an opportunistic defense. They average 489.5 total yards and rank 18th in the nation in rushing (236.9) with Henry Josey leading the way (951 yards, 13 TDs). The defense is tied for fourth in the nation with 37 sacks, has forced 27 turnovers and has at least one takeaway in 42 consecutive games, the longest active streak in the FBS.

ABOUT AUBURN (11-1, 10-2 ATS): Malzahn has overseen the biggest turnaround in the nation after the Tigers went 3-9 a year ago but have returned to the national prominence they enjoyed when he was the offensive coordinator. Tre Mason, the SEC's leading rusher with 1,317 yards and 18 TDs, and dual threat quarterback Nick Marshall (1,627 passing yards, 11 TDs, 5 INTs; 922 rushing yards, 10 TDs) lead an offense that ranks fifth in rushing (318.3) and 15th in total yards (491). The Tigers have been less impressive defensively, but they held Alabama to seven points in the second half.

TRENDS:

* Missouri is 13-3-1 ATS in its last 17 games overall.
* Auburn is 8-0 ATS in its last eight games following a SU win.
* Under is 4-1 in Missouri's last five games overall.
* Over is 7-1 in Auburn's last eight games following a SU win.

EXTRA POINTS:

1. Malzahn and Missouri's Gary Pinkel are among the three finalists for the Maxwell Coach of the Year Award, along with Duke's David Cutcliffe.

2. With a win, Pinkel (101-62) would pass Don Faurot as Missouri's all-time winningest coach.

3. Auburn has scored 30 points or more in eight straight contests and has won 87 consecutive games when hitting the 30-point plateau, while Missouri is one of three teams in the nation to hold all of its opponents to 28 points or fewer.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Big Ten Championship What bettors need to know

Ohio State Buckeyes vs Michigan State Spartans (+5, 51.5)

Game will be payed at Lucas Oil Stadium, Indianapolis, Indiana.

Ohio State had one major obstacle toward its quest for a national title removed last week when Alabama lost to Auburn. The second-ranked Buckeyes can increase their odds of a berth in the BCS Championship Game dramatically Saturday when they meet No. 9 Michigan State in the Big Ten title game at Lucas Oil Stadium in Indianapolis. Ohio State has won a school-record 24 straight games but needed a failed two-point try in the final seconds last week to escape Michigan with a one-point victory.

Despite the Buckeyes’ long winning streak, perhaps no team in the conference is playing as well as the Spartans, who have won eight in a row. Michigan State became the first Big Ten team to win all of its league games by at least 10 points since the conference went to an eight-game schedule in 1971. Although the Spartans could end up in the Rose Bowl for the first time since 1988 regardless of Saturday’s outcome, they could assure themselves a school-record 12th win with a victory.

TV: 8:17 p.m. ET, Fox.

LINE: The line opened with the Buckeyes as 5.5-point faves and have been bet down to -5. The total hasn't moved fro 51.5.

WEATHER: N/A.

ABOUT OHIO STATE (12-0, 6-5-1 ATS): Carlos Hyde is the first running back under coach Urban Meyer to rush for more than 1,000 yards in a season and needs 33 more to become the seventh player in school history to run for 3,000 in a career. Quarterback Braxton Miller trails Hyde by 90 rushing yards and is also 166 total yards shy of joining Art Schlichter as the only Buckeyes to reach 8,000 in their career. Miller and Hyde have combined to rush for 1,070 yards and 13 touchdowns over the past three games against Illinois, Indiana and Michigan.

ABOUT MICHIGAN STATE (11-1, 7-4-1 ATS): The Spartans boast the nation’s top rushing, total and pass efficiency defense and complement it with the fifth-best turnover margin (plus-15) in FBS. They are also second nationally in third-down defense (28.7 percent) and fourth in scoring defense (11.8 points per game)."It's by far the best defense I've ever been a part of. It's got to rival the best defenses ever at Michigan State – forget the last seven years," defensive coordinator Pat Narduzzi said.

TRENDS:
* Under is 4-1 ATS in the last five meetings.
* Ohio State is 6-2-1 ATS in the last nine meetings.
* Road team is 5-0 ATS in the last five meetings.
* Michigan State is 4-1 ATS in its last five games overall.

EXTRA POINTS:
1. Both teams went 8-0 in conference play, marking just the second time since 1943 that two Big Ten teams finished with perfect league marks.

2. Michigan State has kept five out of last six opponents out of the end zone.

3. Meyer notched his first conference win as Ohio State coach when these teams last met in September 2012.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

ACC Championship What bettors need to know

Duke Blue Devils vs Florida State Seminoles (-29, 62)

Game will be played at Bank of America Stadium, Charlotte, North Carolina.

Duke’s first appearance in the ACC championship game may be the feel-good story of the year, but a Blue Devils victory over top-ranked Florida State on Saturday in Charlotte, N.C., would rank as the upset of the decade. The Seminoles, who ascended to the No. 1 ranking after Alabama lost at Auburn last weekend, average 53.7 points per game and are one victory from playing in the BCS championship game. Quarterback Jameis Winston is a frontrunner for the Heisman Trophy, averaging a touchdown pass every 9.1 pass attempts for a Florida State offense that has scored 50 or more points seven times in 12 games.

The Seminoles also are strong defensively, allowing a national-low 11 points per contest. The No. 20 ranked Blue Devils, who have won eight in a row, were picked to finish last in the Coastal Division and are heavy underdogs Saturday, but have come from behind to win their past four contests. “Playing the No. 1 team in the country, there’s no better opportunity to showcase your talents and showcase what you’ve been working for all your life and basically what you dreamed about,” Duke quarterback Anthony Boone told reporters earlier this week.

TV: 8 p.m. ET, ABC.

LINE: The Seminoles opened at 28.5-point faves and have been bet up to -29. The total opened at 61.5 and has moved up slightly to 62.

WEATHER: There is a 68 percent chance of rain with a nine mph wind blowing across the field.

ABOUT DUKE (10-2, 10-2 ATS): Boone passed for 274 yards and two touchdowns in last week’s 27-25 victory at North Carolina, clinching the program’s first 10-win season and giving Duke a chance to win the conference title for the first time since 1989. Brandon Connette ranks second in the ACC in rushing touchdowns. David Helton, Kelby Brown and Jeremy Cash are first, second and third in the conference in tackles.

ABOUT FLORIDA STATE (12-0, 10-2 ATS): Winston, the ACC rookie of the year, has fashioned a fabulous freshman season despite sexual assault allegations
that have made headlines in recent weeks. Winston has passed for 3,490 yards and 35 touchdowns, and Devonta Freeman is fourth in the conference with 852 rushing yards. The Seminoles allow 271 yards per contest, second in the ACC.

TRENDS:
* Favorite is 5-0 ATS in their last five meetings.
* Road team is 7-2 ATS in their last nine meetings.
* Duke is 0-5 ATS in its last five meetings.
* Florida State is 5-0 ATS in its last five games overall.

EXTRA POINTS:
1. Florida State has never lost to Duke in 18 previous meetings, averaging 50.1 points per contest and winning by an average of 34.6 points.

2. Duke and Florida State played four common opponents (Pittsburgh, North Carolina State, Miami, Wake Forest); the Blue Devils went 3-1 and won by an average of 14.3 points, while the Seminoles went 4-0 and won by an average of 35.8 points.

3. The Seminoles have won 13 ACC championships; a victory Saturday would tie Florida State with Clemson for the most ACC titles.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Pac-12 Championship What bettors need to know

Stanford Cardinal at Arizona State Sun Devils (-3, 56)

It takes a mentally strong team to defeat its biggest rival by 37 points and then hold back on the smiles. "This was great tonight, but it’s not the one we’re after," Arizona State coach Todd Graham said, echoing his players' sentiments, after his team dismantled Arizona last Saturday. "The one we’re after is next week." Graham, of course, is referring to Saturday's Pac-12 championship game in which the 13th-ranked Sun Devils will host No. 10 Stanford with the winner heading to the Rose Bowl.

"We had ups and downs; we had bumps and bruises," noted Stanford coach David Shaw, "but when you look up, we're where we wanted to be - a 10-win team in the Pac-12 championship game, and it's going to be a heck of a game." In order to reach their second straight Rose Bowl, the Cardinal must defeat the Sun Devils for the second time this season. Stanford edged visiting Arizona State, 42-28, back on Sept. 21 as Ty Montgomery scored two first-half touchdowns to help the Cardinal to a 29-0 halftime lead in a game that, at the time, certainly did not feel like a Pac-12 championship preview.

TV: 7:45 p.m. ET, ESPN.

LINE: Arizona State opened -3.5 and is now -3. The total has held firm at 56.

WEATHER: There is a 55 percent chance of rain as the game progresses. Wind will blow across the field at 11 mph.

ABOUT STANFORD (10-2, 7-2 Pac-12): The Cardinal boast an impressive resume that includes victories over Washington, UCLA, Oregon State, Oregon and Notre Dame, in addition to their earlier win against Arizona State. In last Saturday's 27-20 triumph over the Fighting Irish, Tyler Gaffney ran for 189 yards and a touchdown while Wayne Lyons had a pair of fourth-quarter interceptions to seal the win. Stanford ranks 13th in the country in points allowed (19 per game) and has yielded no more than 20 points in any of its last six contests.

ABOUT ARIZONA STATE (10-2, 8-1): The Sun Devils improved to 7-0 at home last week with a convincing 58-21 victory over Arizona, as they led 30-7 at the half and cruised despite the absence of leading rusher Marion Grice (leg). D.J. Foster led the way with 124 rushing yards and two touchdowns, helping Arizona State improve its scoring output for the fourth straight game (20, 30, 38 and 58). The Sun Devils may need a sharper performance out of Taylor Kelly (13-of-25, including an interception) if they are going to reach their first Rose Bowl since 1997.

TRENDS:
* Favorite is 5-0-1 ATS in their last six meetings.
* Over is 5-2 in the last seven meetings in Arizona State.
* Sun Devils are 4-1 ATS in their last five home games.
* Cardinal are 19-6-1 ATS in their last 26 road games.

EXTRA POINTS:
1. Grice, who has 996 rushing yards and 14 touchdowns, is doubtful to face the Cardinal.

2. Arizona State DT Will Sutton was named the league's Defensive Player of the Year for the second straight season on Tuesday, while Graham was honored as the Pac-12's Coach of the Year.

3. This is the second time this season that Stanford and Arizona State will meet while both ranked in the top 25. Prior to the 2013, that had never happened before in the all-time series, which the Sun Devils lead 16-12.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

VEGAS SPORTS INFORMER

6 Unit Play. #121 Take Missouri +2 over Auburn (4:00p.m., Saturday, Dec 7 CBS)
(Conference Championship Game of the Month)
Let's go back to the well and Saturday late afternoon we will be looking for the Mizzou Tigers to help us cash another big ticket. Yes I know the Auburn Tigers have had not ONE but TWO miracle wins (Georgia & Alabama) but this Mizzou defense is pretty good. The Mizzou Tigers are coming off a big win at home against Johnny Football and Texas A&M Aggies and if the Tigers can slow down the running game of Auburn we should see Mizzou come out on top. Since their loss at home South Carolina in overtime the Tigers of Missouri have won 4-STRAIGHT and all 4 games were by double-digit victories. I know Auburn offense is really good but their defense gives up the big play and the Auburn 'D' is giving up almost 30ppg in their last 3 games. Mizzou Tigers offense has been clicking and QB for Mizzou is getting healthy everyday so look for QB James Franklin to out-perform the QB of Auburn. Mizzou is 8-1-1 ATS following a SU win and Mizzou is 13-3-1 ATS in their last 17 games.

3 Unit Play. #128 Take Michigan St +5 ½ over Ohio St (8:15p.m., Saturday, Dec 7 FOX)
Defense, defense, and more defense could be the factor in this game. The last 2 meetings between these Big 10 teams the winner won 3 points or less so why not take the Spartans +5 ½. Last week OSU had me scratching my head and I can't believe that Michigan was able to score 41 points against Buckeyes defense. If Michigan St stops the run and makes OSU a passing team then I see this game coming down to the 4ht quarter and I see the winner of this game winning by a field goal. Michigan St has also beaten their last 8 teams by double-digits and again if the Buckeyes defense struggles this game will be interesting. Michigan St is 7-1-1 ATS playing a team with a winning record and Ohio St is 1-4-1 ATS playing on fieldturf.

4 Unit Play. #130 Take Fresno St -3.5 over Utah St (10:00p.m., Saturday, Dec 7 CBS)
Yes I know Fresno St lost last week and their BCS dreams were shattered but they get this game at home and Derek Carr will be playing his last home game. Utah St defense will be tested Saturday night and the Aggies 'D' has only allowed 10.2ppg in their last 5 games and they will need this stat to be true Saturday night. Too bad this stat will be exploded because Fresno St offense is too powerful and QB Carr will have big game Saturday night. The Bulldogs haven't tasted a loss at home this season and if Carr and the Bulldogs offense scores early this game might be a blow out. I think it starts off close but Fresno St takes control in the 2nd half and wins big at home.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Betting First Look with Marco D'Angelo

CFB
MEMPHIS @ CONNECTICUT
Memphis