12-7-13

[Can'tPickAWinner]

ROBERT FERRINGO

SATURDAY COLLEGE FOOTBALL PICKS

3-Unit Play. Take #130 Fresno State (-3.5) over Utah State (10 p.m., Saturday, Dec. 7)

2-Unit Play. Take #128 Michigan State (+5.5) over Ohio State (8 p.m., Saturday, Dec. 7)
Note: This play is from the KING System.

1-Unit Play. Take #118 Oklahoma State (-10) over Oklahoma (Noon, Saturday, Dec. 7)

1-Unit Play. Take #119 Marshall (-6) over Rice (Noon, Saturday, Dec. 7)

1-Unit Play. Take #122 Auburn (-2) over Missouri (4 p.m., Saturday, Dec. 7)
Note: The play is from the KING System.

1-Unit Play. Take #113 Lafayette (+3) over South Alabama (8 p.m., Saturday, Dec. 7)

This Week's Totals

2-Unit Play. Take 'Under' 58.5 - Missouri vs. Auburn (4 p.m., Saturday, Dec. 7)

1-Unit Play. Take 'Under' 63.0 - Duke vs. Florida State (8 p.m., Saturday, Dec. 7)

[Can'tPickAWinner]

JASON SHARPE

5 Unit Play Take #119 Marshall -6 over Rice (12:00pm est):
Marshall really flexed their muscles last weekend as they beat arguably the 2nd best team in Conference USA (ECU) and did so in very impressive fashion, winning by 31 points overall. The Thundering Herd has played at a much higher level than the rest of the C-USA teams this season. A break here or there and we could easily be talking about an undefeated football team here as their three losses were by a combined 13 points overall.

Rice has somehow found ways to win games this season which is something you have to respect but when it comes to winning championships against highly talented teams like Marshall, it's usually not enough. In their biggest game this season outside of the Texas A&M opener, the Owls lost by five points to Houston but that game wasn't nearly as close as the final score as Houston dominated Rice in that contest. That Cougars team is an excellent example of the exact same caliber of team we see with Marshall, as both are rated about the same in my team ratings. That game should be a good indication of just how far apart the Owls are from a team like the Thundering Herd.

Take Marshall to get the win and cover here.

4 Unit Play Take #125 Stanford +3 over Arizona State (7:45pm est):
If the first game these two teams played earlier this year was any indication where these squads are at than the wrong team is definitely favored here in this one. Stanford led by a 29-0 score in that game and had no problems with whatever Arizona put in front of them that day. The Cardinal has once again had another solid year and this group of players has played in a ton of big games, not only beating Oregon this season but also outmuscling Notre Dame just last weekend as well. This is arguably the most physical football team in the nation and a horrible match-up for a team like ASU.

Arizona State plays much more of a finesse type of game than a physical one. They were actually beaten by the same Notre Dame team that Stanford had few problems with just last Saturday. ASU also found a way to win a game that they probably had no business winning against a big and physical Wisconsin earlier this season. That's another great example about just how soft ASU plays as they averaged just 2.7 yards per carry while the Badgers ran for over seven yards per run in that game. Lastly the Sun Devils caught two tremendous scheduling breaks this year, playing a USC team that had no interest in head coach Lane Kiffin's last game and also playing against what was an exhausted Washington Huskies squad who were facing their third straight ranked opponent in three weeks, easily one of the worst spots that any team had to endure all year.

Take Stanford and the points here.

3 Unit Play Take #130 Fresno State -3.5 over Utah State (10:00pm est):
Fresno State has had to endure a tough week from all of their critics as many are calling them chokers and frauds after the Bulldogs blew their big chance at a perfect regular season and a shot at playing in a BCS game. FSU hasn't had an easy time of things this year despite almost ending the regular season without a loss. They would love nothing more here than to win their first outright conference title since 1991 and shut up all the naysayers.

Give this Utah State team a ton of credit as they kept moving forward this year despite the fact they lost their all-everything quarterback Chuckie Keeton to a season ending injury mid-season. The Aggies bounced back from a 3-4 start and won their last five games with a back up quarterback running the show. The main reason for their late season success though probably has more to do with the fact they played New Mexico, Hawaii, UNLV, Colorado State and Wyoming than anything else. Now their true freshman signal caller must go on the road here and win a very big game which won't be an easy task for this youngster. It also won't be easy for him and the USU offense to try and match scores with a FSU offense that comes in averaging almost 50 points per game this year.

Take Fresno State minus the points.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

DOC SPORTS

4 Unit Play. #122 Take Auburn Tigers -2 over Missouri Tigers (Saturday 4 pm CBS) We used Missouri as our top play last week and were not impressed by their offense whatsoever. Texas A&M had one of the worst defenses in the country, and Missouri struggled against them for most of the game. They broke a couple of long plays, but they just did not move the ball on a consistent basis. Now Mizzou faces a better defense in Auburn and a better coach in Gus Malzahn. Auburn is doing a lot of talking this week, and that does worry me a little. However, Missouri has not won a conference championship since the 1960s, and they just do not perform well in big games. The SEC East was very weak this season, and thus I do not believe they are battle-tested for this game. Auburn is 6-1 ATS in their last 7 games against teams with a winning record.

6 Unit Play. #130 Take Fresno State Bulldogs -3.5 over Utah State Aggies (Saturday 10 pm CBS)
Top College Football Play of the Week.
The first-ever Mountain West Championship takes place late Saturday night in Fresno, CA. The Bulldogs are coming off their first loss of the season last week when they failed to show up against San Jose State last Friday. They lost any chance of making a BCS Bowl game after that showing, but I still believe they have enough pride to knock down the Aggies and their backup freshman quarterback. Derek Carr is still a much better quarterback than Darell Garretson, and that will be the difference in this game. Once Boise State lost their quarterback Joe Southwick, the Mountain Division of the MWC became very easy and winnable for Utah State since Air Force, Wyoming, and New Mexico are all terrible teams. That fact remains that Fresno State played a much more difficult schedule than did Utah State during conference play. Boise State pounded Utah State in Logan this season, and the Aggies just beat up on the soft teams in the MWC. Still have concerns that Fresno will not be able to bounce back after such as bad performance, but playing at home and winning a championship with a group of talented seniors should allow them to perform at high level.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

STRIKE POINT SPORTS

3-Unit Play. #121 Take Missouri (+2) over Auburn (4 p.m., Saturday, December 7)
Fact: Auburn needed two of the most unlikeliest plays in consecutive weeks to get to the SEC Championship in Atlanta. Both plays to beat Georgia and then Alabama were amazing as an objective fan, however you have to look at Missouri as a team that is more than capable of upsetting the Tigers. And these Tigers only have one loss as well, and that was in a double-overtime loss to South Carolina without their starting quarterback James Franklin. Beyond this sole loss you could argue Mizzou have been more impressive than Auburn as a whole this year. Remember, Auburn loss was a 14-point setback at LSU as well as falling behind by 14 points or more in both those wins against the Bulldogs and Alabama. It's pretty clear you could make a good case for either team in this game. But the build up to this game has been about Auburn and how they should be in the National Championship game with a win before they even earn it. Missouri is taking this game in stride and I think they will be a lot more focused on the task at hand. Auburn has had to get over the highs of last weekend's 'Bama win and channel their title game ambitions for another week or so. Missouri are the Tigers that claim the SEC Championship.

3-Unit Play. #128 Take Michigan State (+5.5) over Ohio State (8:15 p.m., Saturday, December 7)
Defense over offense. Michigan State has prided itself on stout defense all season long, and they are going to have one of their best defensive performances to upset the perfect Buckeyes. I think this one will be played at a much slower pace and in the favor of the underdog Spartans. And I know Ohio State has everything to lose if they were to get knocked off by Sparty, however I could also see a scenario where MSU covers in a field goal game. Either way, I think this is a live dog that is wanting to again prove itself on the big stage. Take the points and Michigan State.

3-Unit Play. #130 Take Fresno State (-3.5) over Utah State (10 p.m., Saturday, December 7)
This game is letdown city for Fresno State after losing its BCS game aspirations last week at San Jose State. However Utah State does not have its star quarterback Chuckie Keeton in this game. That is huge, and the Aggies are simply not the same team without their do-it-all playmaker. And just for reference, had Fresno State still been undefeated and Keeton out in the game, I think this line would be close to ten points. For me, one loss should not drop this number this low. While the BCS is out of the question, Fresno State can still get a lot from this game. The WAC regular season title is on the line, not to mention still improving its bowl game options as well as finishing on a high at home with seniors, especially quarterback Derek Carr. Bottom line is this number is off and should be closer to a touchdown. Play the home Bulldogs as they bounce back over Utah State.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

WINNING POINTS

COLLEGE BASKETBALL

Temple* over Texas by 1 (at Wells Fargo Center)
“Defense, threes, depth, all cost Temple in loss,” said a recent headline. Good thing
that Texas doesn’t make many threes, and that their leading scorer James Holmes has
a likely ticket to foul trouble.
TEMPLE, 72-71.

Missouri* over UCLA by 12
Former UCLA head coach Ben Howland drilled the Bruins hard through Christmas
last season, had Shabazz Muhammed go off for 27, yet still needed overtime to beat
Missouri at home.
MISSOURI, 87-75.

Louisville* over Louisana-Lafayette by 24

SMU* over Hofstra by 19

***BEST BET
Massachusetts* over BYU by 15 (at Springfield, MA)
BYU loves to get up and down the floor. UMass’ players say, ‘Thank you very much,
whichever coaches are responsible for inviting these young fellows into our place to
play our kind of game where we can outrun and outjump them and show them how
this kind of game should be played.’ “Scheduling is the hardest thing we do," said
BYU head coach Dave Rose recently. "What you want to do is challenge each team,
but you don’t want to get them in a position where they can’t handle it.” Thanks for
the heads-up, bud.
MASSACHUSETTS, 94-79.

St. John’s* over Fordham by 9

St. Bonaventure over Buffalo* by 1

Wake Forest* over Richmond by 8
Richmond needs shooting goggles from the perimeter. Not good to be up in class on
the road and unable to make shots from out there. Wake Forest has strengthened its
major weakness from last season – rebounding – and has also improved its ball security
with four fewer turnovers per game.
WAKE FOREST, 79-61.

Arkansas* over Clemson by 8
Why are we remembering so many Clemson first-half deficits last season, and fearing
the worst about them in a true road game – their first of the season -- against an opponent
that pressures from the git-go and almost always wins in this building?
ARKANSAS, 74-66.

Valparaiso* over Saint Louis by 1

North Carolina State* over Long Beach State by 17

***BEST BET
Evansville* over Miami-OH by 29
The Purple Aces return home following three road games at Indiana, Ohio and
Murray State. They’ve already beaten a nice Valpo bunch here 100-92, and a nice
Mercer bunch here 89-76. Mercer, of course, won the CIT last season at Utah State,
another nice team. Miami-OH? Not a nice team. They are rivaling their crummy football
team for worst team on campus this year. They were nowhere near Notre Dame,
Arizona State or Xavier at the wire, those three teams have proven just about nothing
vs. anyone good, and they lost a home game 65-63 to Wilmington. Not NCWilmington.
Just plain Wilmington College.
EVANSVILLE, 91-62.

Cleveland State* over Akron by 1

Xavier* over Bowling Green by 14

Purdue* over Eastern Michigan by 11

**PREFERRED
Wisconsin* over Marquette by 17
As expected, Marquette woke up and covered at Arizona State last week. Come on,
man. But that Arizona State team is soft. Wisconsin is tough. They make every possession
critical, which could be a little too much for Marquette offensively right now.
The last time they tackled a Big Ten team that played good defense (Ohio State),
Marquette failed to get out of the 30s.
WISCONSIN, 69-48.

South Alabama over Rice* by 5

Kansas over Colorado* by 6

***BEST BET
Georgia State over Southern Miss* by 7
Southern Miss’ offensive production is noticeably off this season. They won 67-65 in
Georgia State’s building a year ago, but they got a 24-point game that night from 8-
to 10-point average Jerrold Brooks, currently the team’s fifth-leading scorer on a squad
where nobody is averaging in more than 10.7 ppg. Adding current 20 ppg scoring
guard Ryan Harrow to the mix has enabled Georgia State’s guard R.J. Hunter to take
an offensive back seat, where he belongs, and allow this team to play some real ball
instead of watching the head coach’s son chuck it from straight-on, 20 feet out on
every other trip down the floor.
GEORGIA STATE, 77-70.

Notre Dame* over Delaware by 9
The Irish have been overly reliant on the three-pointer. Delaware hung around for the
full 40 at Villanova recently. Villanova then beat Kansas, among other nice things.
NOTRE DAME, 81-72.

New Mexico* over Cincinnati by 8
Lobos won in Cincinnati last season. We’ll not be falling in love with the Bearcats’ formidable
defense on the road. We’ll let ‘em prove they can shoot straight first.
NEW MEXICO, 70-62.

Loyola-Chicago* over Illinois-Chicago by 7

Western Kentucky over Southern Illinois* by 1

Bradley over Wisc-Milwaukee* by 1 (at Klotsche Center)

Penn State* over Marshall by 13

Tulsa* over Arkansas-LR by 10
Tulsa has revenge for a 72-65 road loss last season and after losing two in a row in
Alaska to TCU and Wisconsin-GB, they will be happy for the opportunity to get the
invaders’ 6’10” leading scorer Will Neighbor into early foul trouble and set things in
motion their way vs. his smaller cast of lily-livered road characters.
TULSA, 73-63.

Utah* over Fresno State by 9

Northwestern* over Western Michigan by 6

Virginia over Wisconsin-GB* by 5

Arizona* over UNLV by 26
This looks like a blowout waiting to happen, doesn’t it? Arizona looks like what UNLV
might have looked like had the Bennett kid not gone to the NBA, and the Moser kid
not transferred to Oregon, and if the Runnin’ Rebels had a smart head coach.
ARIZONA, 91-65.

Iowa State* over Northern Iowa by 18
The host Cyclones are nailing 10 treys per game. Everyone on Northern Iowa shoots
free throws very well. Too bad they’re playing in a Big 12 house and won’t get to the
line much.
IOWA STATE, 79-61.

Oakland* over Ohio by 1

Houston* over San Jose State by 15

Villanova over St. Joseph’s* by 6

Northeastern* over UAB by 6

Dayton over Illinois State* by 6

Iowa over Drake* by 9 (at Wells Fargo Arena)

Utah State* over Pacific by 11
Angry Aggies! Utah State’s last game was their first loss of the season, 85-74 at a neutral
Salt Lake City site vs. in-state rival BYU. They led by 5 at halftime, then got outscored
46-30 in the second half. This is Pacific’s only game from December 2 to
December 14, a little too far from home vs. an opponent a little too good.
UTAH STATE, 78-67.

**PREFERRED
South Florida* over Alabama by 7
‘Oh, my, Alabama hung with Duke last week. So, they should kill South Florida.’ Aw,
come on, man. Duke would struggle to out-rebound a ranked women’s team. At South
Florida, if you don’t rebound, head coach Stan Heath doesn’t look at you for a month.
Alabama’s bench is barely denting the score sheet and the Tide is shooting less than
30% from beyond the arc. Getting 9 steals per game – at the slow pace South Florida
plays – is very impressive.
SOUTH FLORIDA, 65-58.

Nevada over Cal-Davis* by 1

Cal Poly-SLO* over Santa Clara by 4

***BEST BET
Cal-Irvine* over Pepperdine by 25
The Anteaters of Irvine lost 72-62 at Pepperdine last season despite having a 35-9 scoring
edge from its bench. What the heck? The hoses were trained against them, with
Pepperdine enjoying 36 trips to the free-throw line, to 12 for Irvine. Pepperdine had
a 26-14 edge in points in the paint. Points in the paint will be scarce for Pepperdine
now, with 7’6” Mamadou Ndiaye patrolling the paint for as long as the Anteaters can
leave him out there. Pepperdine was in Alaska over the weekend, had to come home
and host Fullerton on Wednesday, then a roadie here. Tough deal. This is a targeted
home affair for Irvine.
CAL-IRVINE, 82-57

[Can'tPickAWinner]

StatFox Super Situations™ - FoxSheets

CBB TENNESSEE ST at DREXEL
Play On - Road underdogs of 10 to 19.5 points (TENNESSEE ST) after a loss by 6 points or less against opponent after 2 straight games where both teams score 75 points or more
46-18 since 1997. ( 71.9% 26.2 units )
0-1 this year. ( 0.0% -1.1 units )

CBB DAYTON at ILLINOIS ST
Play Against - Home underdogs of +145 to +350 vs. the money line (ILLINOIS ST) after allowing 30 points or less in the first half in 2 straight games against opponent after scoring 60 points or less
117-29 since 1997. ( 80.1% 55.5 units )

CBB UNLV at ARIZONA
Play On - Underdogs of 6 to 11 points vs. the first half line (UNLV) in a game involving two excellent defensive teams (<=40%), after 2 straight games - allowing a shooting pct. of 37% or less
62-28 since 1997. ( 68.9% 31.2 units )
0-2 this year. ( 0.0% -2.2 units )

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Chase Diamond

9* Rutgers -4

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Dr Bob
CFB

S. FLA

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Alex Smart

CFB-
ULL+2.5
Duke+29.5
Marshall-4.5
Texas+16

NBA-
Clippers-6

CBB-
Fordham+11.5
Eastern Michigan+10.5
Akron+5.5
Evansville-9.5
Wisconsin-8
Kansas+1
Southern Mississippi-6.5
Illinois Chicago+4.5
Ohio State-27
Fresno State+10.5
Ohio-2.5
Villanova-3.5
Houston-8.5
Pacific+10.5
Nevada-3.5

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Joe Gavazzi

Baylor

Rice

COLL FOOTBALL
Oklahoma at Oklahoma St. (-9-) Noon ET ABC
5* Oklahoma With need, you bleed. All the pressure is on the home standing Cowboys who hold their destiny in
their own hands. A loss on this field sets up the Texas/Baylor winner for the Big 12 Championship.
Clearly, the Cowboys are the hottest team in the league, with 7 straight wins and 6 straight
covers. And we rarely go against a home field where the Cowboys are on runs of 32-14, 23-8,
and 9-1 ATS. Senior QB Chelf has stepped up to lead the late season surge. But, getting
Oklahoma as a rivalry double-digit dog, with a record of 9-1 SU in this series, is too much to pass
up. The Sooners have had a decent season of their own at 9-2 SU with their only losses to Baylor
and Texas. The combination of a strong defense at 330 YPG and a running game at 240 RYPG are
an outstanding combination for savvy HC Stoops to play the spoiler. Signal caller tandem of QB
Bell/Knight do just enough to keep the Sooners competitive in this with the opportunity to steal
the victory.

COLLEGE HOOPS…
UCLA at Missouri (-1) 12:30 ET CBS
4* UCLA +1
Missouri is still a work in progress for HC Haith. That is, if Thursday night’s choke against WVU, in
which they almost allowed WVU to spoil our Best Bet, is any indication. Nonetheless, before you
can take off the rubber band with a superior UCLA team, please note the Tigers 54-2 SU mark (5-
0 TY) at Mizzou Arena. Savvy UCLA 1st year HC Alford is working his magic in Westwood. Already
he is 6-2 ATS with net coverage of 45 points. Consider Tuesday night when his troops did not
waiver in the face of (9) 1st half Gaucho triples. Alford simply threw out a 1-2-2 three quarter
court zone trap and ruined Barbie’s rhythm. A bit concerning is the Bruin’s first road game at such
a tough site, but Alford is 44-29 ATS away, 27-14 ATS in December, and 43-10 ATS following
consecutive double digit wins. Must like any team that plays as hard as these Bruins and dishes
out 20 assists per game.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

BIG AL McMORDIE
NCAA FOOTBALL CHAMPIONSHIP GAME OF THE YEAR
At 4 pm, our selection is on the Missouri Tigers + the points over Auburn.
Set-ups don't get any better than this. Auburn comes into this game off not one, but two of the
greatest wins in the history of College Football. First, of course, was its miraculous 43-38 win
over Georgia by virtue of a 73-yard TD pass on a 4th-and-18 play with 25 seconds left. Then,
last week, Auburn looked to be facing, possibly, a 14-point deficit to its arch-rival, Alabama, with
a few minutes to play. But an offensive holding penalty likely kept Alabama from the end zone.
And then more improbable events followed: blocked Alabama field goal; quick Auburn TD; missed
(ill-advised) Alabama field-goal; and a 100-yard TD return by Auburn. And that's how Auburn
stunned the 2-time defending champions, and won outright as a 10-point underdog. But Auburn's
ecstasy is likely to be short-lived. Missouri is 11-1 on the season, and only has a 3-point overtime
loss to South Carolina to blemish its season. Both teams have 7-1 records in SEC Conference
play, but Missouri has outscored its SEC Conference foes by 16.8 ppg, while Auburn has only
outscored its SEC Conference foes by 7.9 ppg. Even worse for Auburn: teams playing away from
home in the post-season are 0-20 ATS since 1985 off an upset win as an underdog of +7 or more
points, if they're matched up against a .584 (or better) foe, and are not getting 6+ points in the
current game!
Take Missouri + the points.
Good luck, as always...

[Can'tPickAWinner]

SEC Championship
By Brian Edwards

Missouri vs. Auburn

Date: Saturday, Dec. 7
Time/TV: 4:00 p.m. ET, CBS
Venue: Georgia Dome
Location: Atlanta, Georgia
Line, Total: Auburn -1 ½, 58

Raise your hand if you picked Auburn and Missouri to collide in Atlanta this weekend at the SEC Championship Game. Now if your hand is raised, stop lying!

In the most improbable matchup in the history of the SEC Championship Game that dates back to 1992, Missouri will face Auburn at the Ga. Dome on Saturday at 4:00 p.m. Eastern on CBS. The winner will get a date in Pasadena at the BCS Championship Game if Michigan State can beat Ohio State in the Big Ten Championship.

As of late Friday afternoon, most betting shops had Auburn or Missouri favored by one, while others had it as a pick ‘em. From Sunday through Thursday, most spots had Auburn favored by 1½ or two. The total is 58½

Auburn (11-1 straight up, 10-2 against the spread) has been living on the edge in its last two games, pulling out miraculous victories over Georgia and Alabama on two game-winning plays that will be remembered for generations to come.

On fourth and 18 against Georgia, Nick Marshall’s bomb into double coverage went right into the hands of the UGA defenders. Instead of knocking the ball down, both defenders collided going for the ball, resulting in a carom that inexplicably led the ball right into the hands of a streaking Ricardo Louis for a 73-yard touchdown with 25 ticks left.

Last week’s play was even more unlikely. We’ve seen tipped balls on Hail Mary’s many times before. What AU’s Chris Davis did with his 109-yard return of Alabama’s missed 57-yard field goal to end the game and the SEC West race was beyond shocking.

The only time I can remember a 109-yard return (107 actually) off a missed field goal was when Chris McAlister did it for the Ravens against the Broncos on Monday Night Football. And the main reason I remember it is because of the barbaric crackback block that Ray Lewis delivered to spring McAlister.

But that came at the end of the first half, not the end of the game or the conclusion of a team’s quest to win a third straight national title and a fourth in five years.

The likelihood of those plays is off the charts. Auburn came up with them in back-to-back home games. Is this a team of destiny, one touched with some sort of magical charm?

Remember, it was this week a year ago that the school fired a head coach that led it to the school’s first national title since the 1950s just 24 months before. That’s what happens when you go 3-9 on The Plains. Many expected AU to improve under Gus Malzahn, but nobody envisioned this type of turnaround.

Missouri (11-1 SU, 10-1-1 ATS) hasn’t needed good fortune or luck on its way to a remarkable bounce-back season. Gary Pinke’s team was snakebitten by injuries in its 2012 SEC debut. In fact, it lost three offensive line starters before Week 1 and QB James Franklin was never 100 percent.

In 2013, however, Mizzou has stayed healthy with the exception of Franklin missing five weeks with a separated shoulder. Pinkel’s bunch has won 10 of its 11 games by 14 points or more, and its only loss came in overtime to South Carolina in a game it led 17-0 with 12 minutes remaining.

Mizzou is two-deep at QB, three-deep at RB and has three future NFL wide receivers. RB Henry Josey missed all of 2012 with a knee injury but has shined in 2013 nonetheless. Josey has run for a team-high 951 yards and 13 TDs.

Franklin has a 16/4 touchdown-to-interception ratio and three rushing scores. Dorial Green-Beckham and L’Damian Washington have 10 TD catches apiece.

Totals have been an overall wash for Mizzou (6-6), but the ‘under’ has cashed at a 4-1 clip in its last five games.

Auburn has seen the ‘over’ go 7-5 overall, 6-1 in its last seven contests.

B.E.’s Bonus Nuggets

I noted above that a Michigan St. win over Ohio St. would send the Mizzou-AU winner to Pasadena. Obviously, a Duke win over FSU would do the trick as well, but we all know that those chances are very slim. However, there is precedence for such shockers to shake up the national-title game matchup. In 2007, Pitt went to Morgantown and beat West Va. as a 28½-point underdog, paving the way for LSU to win it all over Ohio St. in New Orleans. Just two years ago, Iowa State clipped Oklahoma St. as a 27½-point ‘dog. Duke is a 29-point ‘dog to the ‘Noles at most books. -- Stanford is 4-0-1 ATS with three outright victories in five games as an underdog on David Shaw’s watch. Both outright defeats came in overtime. The Cardinal is a three-point ‘dog Saturday night at Arizona St. When they met in Palo Alto earlier this year, Stanford led 29-0 at intermission and 39-7 going into the fourth quarter. Therefore, don’t allow the 42-28 final to mislead you into thinking this wasn’t a lopsided beatdown in the previous encounter.

Arizona State RB Marion Grice is out vs. Stanford. Grice has rushed for 996 yards and scored 20 TDs (14 rushing, six receiving), but back-up D.J. Foster ran for 124 yards and a pair of scores in last week’s blowout win over in-state rival Arizona.

Memphis at UConn was a pick ‘em at most spots as of Friday afternoon. If the Huskies go off as home underdogs, they will be looking to improve on an incredible 18-4 spread record in their last 22 games as home puppies.

Fresno State WR Josh Harper (groin) is ‘questionable’ Saturday vs. Utah St. Harper has 79 receptions for 1,011 yards and 13 TDs this year.

Texas will be without leading tackler Steve Edmond Saturday at Baylor and in its bowl game. Edmond has a lacerated liver but should be ready for spring ball. The MLB had 73 tackles and two interceptions in 2013.

Texas is 6-2 ATS in eight games as a road underdog dating back to 2004. The Longhorns are 15-point ‘dogs at Baylor.

SMU senior QB Garrett Gilbert (21/7 TD-INT) was downgraded to ‘doubtful’ on Friday. He will most likely miss a second straight game Saturday vs. UCF. Without Gilbert, SMU head coach June Jones took his first bagel EVER as a head coach in last week’s 34-0 loss at Houston. During Jones’s tenure, the Mustangs are 9-4 ATS as home underdogs. They were catching 11 or 11.5 at most spots late Friday afternoon.

UL-Lafayette QB Terrance Broadway is ‘doubtful’ at South Alabama due to a wrist injury. Broadway has a 19/10 TD-INT ratio and eight rushing scores this season.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Yourbookiesmoney

Saturday Added Play
(4-0 Last two Days)
3* Golden St. +1

Everything points to a Golden St. win in this spot. I believe the loss of Mark Gasol is starting to
take full effect for Memphis. In the 2nd half of their last game, the Clippers absolutely destroyed
them. Tony Allen did not play in that game and he is questionable for this game. Also Ed Davis an
underrated big man was hurt last game and it's almost a lock he is out for this contest. Golden St.
is coming off a very bad loss last night in Houston, but what made this pick so attractive to me is
that Memphis has already beaten Golden St. twice this year. However, those losses were against
a Memphis team at full strength and the lineup they put out Saturday will be far from full
strength. If Golden St. is not motivated after what happened last night and losing twice to
Memphis already this year they will never be up for a game. On a side note Andre Iguodala has
been upgraded to questionable. I'm not saying he will play, but this is the best chance for him to
see some action in a few games. In conclusion, I just see this as a game Golden St will give extra
attention too for many reasons, while Memphis is banged up and has not been playing good
anyway at full strength.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

R.A.W. FOOTBALL - SATURDAY

4* BEST BET = MISSOURI
3* = MICHIGAN STATE
2* = STANFORD
2* = BAYLOR
2* = MARSHALL

[Can'tPickAWinner]

StatFox Super Situations™ - FoxSheets

NHL TORONTO at OTTAWA
Play On - Any team against the money line (OTTAWA) hot team - 5 straight games with 6+ more shots on goal than opponents
49-14 over the last 5 seasons. ( 77.8% 34.2 units )
1-0 this year. ( 100.0% 1.0 units )

NHL ANAHEIM at CHICAGO
Play On - Road underdogs of +100 to +200 against the money line (ANAHEIM) off 2 consecutive losses against division rivals, playing with 2 days rest
36-17 since 1997. ( 67.9% 33.0 units )
1-1 this year. ( 50.0% 0.4 units )

NHL TORONTO at OTTAWA
Play On - Any team against the money line (OTTAWA) good offensive team - averaging 29.5 or more shots on goal per game, hot team - 5 straight games with 6+ more shots on goal than opponents
45-12 over the last 5 seasons. ( 78.9% 31.6 units )
1-0 this year. ( 100.0% 1.0 units )