12-10-13

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Heat at Pacers: What bettors need to know

Miami Heat at Indiana Pacers (-3, 189)

The Indiana Pacers just completed a five-game road trip that put them up against some of the top teams in the Western Conference. Their reward for posting a 3-2 record on that excursion is a return home to host the defending champion Miami Heat on Tuesday. Indiana took the Heat to seven games in the Eastern Conference finals last spring before falling just short and has been waiting for another crack at LeBron James and company.

While some of the Pacers players were upset with the way the road trip ended - a 118-94 loss at Oklahoma City - coach Frank Vogel saw the trip as a positive overall. “It was a good trip,” Vogel said. “You’re playing four of the top teams in the Western Conference in their building, two of them on the second night of a back-to-back, on a nine-day trip. That’s a brutal schedule.” The Heat are coming to the end of a four-game road trip and knocked off Minnesota and Detroit by a combined 36 points on Saturday and Sunday.

TV: 7 p.m. ET, NBATV, Sun Sports (Miami), FSN Indiana

NBA POWER RANKINGS: Heat (-14.5) - Pacers (-13.0) + Home Court (-3.0) = Pacers -1.5

ABOUT THE HEAT (16-5, 11-10 ATS): Miami looked lifeless is back-to-back losses last week but got Dwyane Wade back from the flu on Saturday and watched as James flirted with triple-doubles against both the Timberwolves and the Pistons. James is more focused on fixing the small issues with his own team than getting too worked up about the matchup with the Pacers. “Obviously, everybody is going to make it as a marquee game on Tuesday but I don’t really get too much involved in regular-season matchups, especially early in December,” James said. “They’re a great team right now, the way they’re playing basketball. We’re trying to get healthy, trying to get to our full potential.”

ABOUT THE PACERS (18-3, 15-6 ATS): Indiana built up its top record in the Eastern Conference largely on the strength of its team defense and the brilliance of Paul George. While George continues to excel at the offensive end, the team defense surrendered at least 100 points in four of the five games on the trip after allowing an opponent to reach the century mark just once in the first 16 games. The Pacers allowed the Thunder to shoot a season-high 61 percent in Sunday’s setback and George (32 points) was the only player to score more than 12 for Indiana.

TRENDS:

* Home team is 4-0 ATS in the last four meetings.
* Over is 5-2 in the last seven meetings in Indiana.
* Over is 9-4 in the last 13 meetings.
* Heat are 1-4 ATS in the last five meetings in Indiana.

BUZZER BEATERS:

1. The Pacers took two of the three regular-season meeting in 2012-13 - both at home.

2. Miami F Michael Beasley (hamstring) sat out Sunday and is questionable for Tuesday.

3. George averaged 29.8 points on the five-game road trip and went 27-for-28 from the free-throw line.

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NFL line watch: Colts backers should act fast
By ART ARONSON

Each week during the pro football season, Covers Expert Art Aronson looks at the NFL odds and tells you which spread to bet now, which one to bet later, and which total to watch as the week plays out.

Spread to bet now

Houston Texans at Indianapolis Colts (-6)

If you like the Colts to bounce back from their 42-28 drubbing in Cincinnati last week and hand the Texans a 12th straight loss, I'd recommend jumping on this line as soon as possible. As of Monday afternoon, there is still a -6 available but 6.5's have already started to become the predominate number, with even a 7 on the board as well.

Indianapolis beat Houston 27-24 back in Week 9, a contest in which it was trailing 21-3 heading into the break. Interestingly, that was the game that ex-Texans head coach Gary Kubiak collapsed at half time with the heart issues (Kubiak of course was sacked after last week's 27-20 setback at Jacksonville).

The end of the season can't come quick enough now for Houston which has clearly thrown in the towel, with games at home versus Denver next week and at Tennessee to finish the year.

Spread to wait on

Cincinnati Bengals at Pittsburgh Steelers (+2.5)

As mentioned above, Cincinnati had little trouble with Indianapolis last week, thrashing it 42-28. Pittsburgh though would stumble last Sunday, losing 34-28 to Miami in the closing moments, which was on the heels of a hard-fought 22-20 loss at Baltimore in Week 13.

This line opened at +2.5, but sharps have been quick to jump on the high-flying visitors, with +3 pretty much the predominating number now. If you think the home side can stop its two game slide and avenge a 20-10 setback at Cincinnati in Week 2, then I'd recommend waiting a bit closer to kickoff before getting involved.

And if you're a Bengals backer, just keep in mind that playing on the road has been their Achilles' heel for bettors for the last few seasons, coming into this contest at just 2-5-1 ATS their last eight away from friendly confines.

Total to watch

Houston Texans at Indianapolis Colts (46)

Under bettors would be wise to get on this number right now. It opened at 46, which is still being offered at some books, but 45.5 has for the most part been taken over the board.

Whenever these divisional foes get together it has been a battle, as evidenced by the fact that the total has finished Under the number in five of their last six in the series. That wasn't the case back in Week 9 when the Colts stormed back for a 27-24 victory. Indianapolis scored 24 points in the second half, 15 in the fourth quarter.

But the firing of Kubiak is a clear signal that the visitors are planning for next year, and while the home side has locked up the division, there's no question that it will be looking to atone for the dismal defensive effort in Cincinnati last Sunday. Expect this number to continue to fall as the week goes on.

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Sports Nostradums

CBB
Kansas
Kentucky

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Chicago Syndicate

CBB
Indiana
Minnesota

NBA
Over Pacers
Cavs
Over Pistons

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LA Syndicate

NBA
Over Thunder
Under Lakers

CBB
Utah

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Alex Smart

CBB-
Gonzaga-2
Wisconsin Green Bay-1
Evansville+11.5
Kansas State-14
Boise State+11.5
NJIT+13.5

NBA-
Indiana-3.5
New York+2.5

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sweet jones

1.5 x Cleveland Cavaliers -1.5

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See spot. See spot bet: This week's best spot bet opportunities
By JASON LOGAN

Spot bets are classic handicapping practices that have proven profitable no matter what sport you’re betting. Whether it’s a team looking past this week’s opponent, one coming off a hard-fought victory, or a rough patch of schedule, bettors can find value picking their spots.

Lookahead spot

The Carolina Panthers won’t have to wait long to get their paws on the New Orleans Saints again. Carolina took a 31-13 knock on the chin Sunday Night, losing the inside track on the NFC South race and a potential playoff spot, but hosts the Saints in Week 16. Sandwiched in between those games with New Orleans are the lowly New York Jets, who are 11.5-point road underdogs in Carolina Sunday.

New York rose from the ashes with a 37-27 win over the Oakland Raiders Sunday, covering as 3-point home chalk. Geno Smith tossed for 219 yards and a score while adding another touchdown on the ground.

The Jets actually have a shot at the postseason – believe it or not – and are just one game out an AFC Wild Card spot. That coupled with Rex Ryan singing for his supper and a distracted Panthers side, the J-E-T-S could stay within that double-digit spread Sunday.

Letdown spot

It’s been a few disappointing weeks for the Fresno State Bulldogs, who despite claiming the Mountain West Conference crown Saturday, end up being the opening act to bowl season.

The Bulldogs, who had their BCS bowl hopes dashed by San Jose State at the end of November, defeated Utah State for the MWC title and accepted a bid to play the 9-4 USC Trojans in the Las Vegas Bowl on December 21 – the first day of bowl action.

At 11-1 on the season and boasting a conference crown from the respectable MWC, the Bulldogs seem like they got the short end of the stick with bowl matchups. While a trip to Vegas is always fun, Fresno State finished No. 20 in the Top 25 and should have gotten better bowl billing this postseason.

Schedule spot

Ask Kobe Bryant how he played in his return from Achilles’ surgery Sunday night, and he’ll likely give the film Grown Ups 2 a better review (Grown Ups 2 actually got 7 percent on Rotten Tomatoes). Bryant scored one more point than he had turnovers – nine points/eight turnovers – and missed clutch shots down the stretch in a loss to the Raptors.

The Lakers offense seemed out of whack with its top scorer in the way, freezing out playmaking PG Steve Blake for only four assists. Blake averaged 9.75 assists in the four games prior to Bryant’s return. Los Angeles averaged almost 105 points in that four-game span, going 3-1 SU and ATS.

There is going to be a transition period for L.A. and it couldn’t come at a worse time. Following a home game with Phoenix Tuesday, the Lakers hit the bricks for four straight road games - at OKC, Charlotte, Atlanta, Memphis - and play seven of their next 10 away from Staples Center. Los Angeles is just 5-4 ATS on the road this year.

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Today's NBA Picks

Miami at Indiana

The Pacers look to bounce back from their 118-94 loss to Oklahoma City on Sunday and build on their 5-0 ATS record in their last 5 games following a loss by 10 or more points. Indiana is the pick (-3) according to Dunkel, which has the Pacers favored by 13. Dunkel Pick: Indiana (-3). Here are all of today's picks.

TUESDAY, DECEMBER 10 Time Posted: 7:30 a.m. EST

Game 501-502: Miami at Indiana (7:00 p.m. EST) Dunkel Ratings: Miami 117.886; Indiana 131.094 Dunkel Line & Total: Indiana by 13; 194 Vegas Line & Total: Indiana by 3; 190 Dunkel Pick: Indiana (-3); Over

Game 503-504: New York at Cleveland (7:00 p.m. EST) Dunkel Ratings: New York 119.161; Cleveland 112.904 Dunkel Line & Total: New York by 6 1/2; 184 Vegas Line & Total: Cleveland by 3; 189 Dunkel Pick: New York (+3); Under

Game 505-506: San Antonio at Toronto (7:00 p.m. EST) Dunkel Ratings: San Antonio 128.723; Toronto 118.187 Dunkel Line & Total: San Antonio by 10 1/2; 204 Vegas Line & Total: San Antonio by 7; 198 Dunkel Pick: San Antonio (-7); Over

Game 507-508: Minnesota at Detroit (7:30 p.m. EST) Dunkel Ratings: Minnesota 119.013; Detroit 117.703 Dunkel Line & Total: Minnesota by 1 1/2; 197 Vegas Line & Total: Detroit by 1 1/2; 203 1/2 Dunkel Pick: Minnesota (+1 1/2); Under

Game 509-510: Boston at Brooklyn (7:30 p.m. EST) Dunkel Ratings: Boston 114.405; Brooklyn 118.465 Dunkel Line & Total: Brooklyn by 4; 199 Vegas Line & Total: Brooklyn by 2; 193 Dunkel Pick: Brooklyn (-2); Over

Game 511-512: Oklahoma City at Atlanta (7:30 p.m. EST) Dunkel Ratings: Oklahoma City 123.050; Atlanta 121.561 Dunkel Line & Total: Oklahoma City by 1 1/2; 198 Vegas Line & Total: Oklahoma City by 5; 203 Dunkel Pick: Atlanta (+5); Under

Game 513-514: Milwaukee at Chicago (8:00 p.m. EST) Dunkel Ratings: Milwaukee 110.389; Chicago 120.470 Dunkel Line & Total: Chicago by 10; 183 Vegas Line & Total: No Line Dunkel Pick: N/A

Game 515-516: Phoenix at LA Lakers (10:30 p.m. EST) Dunkel Ratings: Phoenix 114.269; LA Lakers 121.573 Dunkel Line & Total: LA Lakers by 7 1/2; 212 Vegas Line & Total: LA Lakers by 3; 206 Dunkel Pick: LA Lakers (-3); Over

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NCAA Basketball Picks

Kansas at Florida

The Gators host a Kansas team tonight that is 2-5 ATS in its last 7 road games. Florida is the pick (-2 1/2) according to Dunkel, which has the Gators favored by 4 1/2. Dunkel Pick: Florida (-2 1/2). Here are all of today's games.

TUESDAY, DECEMBER 10 Time Posted: 7:00 a.m. EST

Game 517-518: Kansas at Florida (7:00 p.m. EST) Dunkel Ratings: Kansas 70.692; Florida 75.117 Dunkel Line: Florida by 4 1/2 Vegas Line: Florida by 2 1/2 Dunkel Pick: Florida (-2 1/2)

Game 519-520: WI-Green Bay at Eastern Michigan (7:00 p.m. EST) Dunkel Ratings: WI-Green Bay 58.106; Eastern Michigan 55.084 Dunkel Line: WI-Green Bay by 3 Vegas Line: WI-Green Bay by 1 Dunkel Pick: WI-Green Bay (-1)

Game 521-522: Evansville at Xavier (7:00 p.m. EST) Dunkel Ratings: Evansville 58.461; Xavier 65.137 Dunkel Line: Xavier by 6 1/2 Vegas Line: Xavier by 11 1/2 Dunkel Pick: Evansville (+11 1/2)

Game 523-524: Oakland at Indiana (7:00 p.m. EST) Dunkel Ratings: Oakland 48.116; Indiana 77.498 Dunkel Line: Indiana by 29 1/2 Vegas Line: Indiana by 16 1/2 Dunkel Pick: Indiana (-16 1/2)

Game 525-526: Dartmouth at Illinois (8:00 p.m. EST) Dunkel Ratings: Dartmouth 47.543; Illinois 69.019 Dunkel Line: Illinois by 21 1/2 Vegas Line: Illinois by 17 Dunkel Pick: Illinois (-17)

Game 527-528: Gonzaga at West Virginia (9:00 p.m. EST) Dunkel Ratings: Gonzaga 73.794; West Virginia 65.545 Dunkel Line: Gonzaga by 8 Vegas Line: Gonzaga by 2 Dunkel Pick: Gonzaga (-2)

Game 529-530: Boise State at Kentucky (9:00 p.m. EST) Dunkel Ratings: Boise State 64.895; Kentucky 71.913 Dunkel Line: Kentucky by 7 Vegas Line: Kentucky by 11 1/2 Dunkel Pick: Boise State (+11 1/2)

Game 531-532: Nevada at California (11:00 p.m. EST) Dunkel Ratings: Nevada 49.983; California 69.425 Dunkel Line: California by 19 1/2 Vegas Line: California by 14 1/2 Dunkel Pick: California (-14 1/2)

Game 533-534: IPFW at Bradley (8:00 p.m. EST) Dunkel Ratings: IPFW 53.998; Bradley 54.848 Dunkel Line: Bradley by 1 Vegas Line: Bradley by 4 Dunkel Pick: IPFW (+4)

Game 535-536: South Dakota State at Minnesota (8:00 p.m. EST) Dunkel Ratings: South Dakota State 50.113; Minnesota 68.026 Dunkel Line: Minnesota by 18 Vegas Line: Minnesota by 16 1/2 Dunkel Pick: Minnesota (-16 1/2)

Game 537-538: South Dakota at Kansas State (8:00 p.m. EST) Dunkel Ratings: South Dakota 47.765; Kansas State 66.336 Dunkel Line: Kansas State by 18 1/2 Vegas Line: Kansas State by 14 Dunkel Pick: Kansas State (-14)

Game 539-540: Idaho State at Utah (9:00 p.m. EST) Dunkel Ratings: Idaho State 46.165; Utah 67.097 Dunkel Line: Utah by 21 Vegas Line: Utah by 15 1/2 Dunkel Pick: Utah (-15 1/2)

Game 541-542: AR-Little Rock at Tulsa (8:00 p.m. EST) Dunkel Ratings: AR-Little Rock 49.106; Tulsa 56.398 Dunkel Line: Tulsa by 7 1/2 Vegas Line: Tulsa by 10 Dunkel Pick: AR-Little Rock (+10)

Game 551-552: New Jersey Tech at Seton Hall (9:00 p.m. EST) Dunkel Ratings: New Jersey Tech 47.267; Seton Hall 58.369 Dunkel Line: Seton Hall by 11 Vegas Line: Seton Hall by 13 1/2 Dunkel Pick: New Jersey Tech (+13 1/2)

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Free Selection from Arthur Ralph Sports

Our Free Plays are 1138-868 (57%) over the last 5 1/2 years College FB 62-38 this yr,NFL 41-31:

Free winner TUES California -14

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Cappers Access

Florida -2.5
W. Virginia +2
Kentucky -11.5

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Gamblers Data

Free Plays Tuesday

St. Louis blues -145

IUPU Ft Wayne +4

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Mighty Quinn

Mighty missed with the Cowboys (PK) on Monday and likes Xavier on Tuesday.

The deficit is 1535 sirignanos.