12-12-13

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BIG AL McMORDIE
NFL Thursday Night Total of the Year
UNDER - SD/DEN

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Chargers at Broncos
By Kevin Rogers

The Broncos play their final regular season game at Sports Authority Field on Thursday, but it definitely won't be the last home contest for Denver. The Chargers are in desperation mode at 6-7, entering Week 15 one game behind Baltimore and Miami for the sixth and final playoff spot in the AFC. San Diego needs a win in the worst way, but can it duplicate a strong home effort from this past Sunday?

The Lightning Bolts struck the Giants early and often in a 37-14 rout as three-point favorites in Week 14. San Diego jumped to a commanding 24-0 halftime lead thanks to three touchdown passes from Philip Rivers, while the Chargers' defense intercepted Eli Manning twice in the victory. The Chargers evened their home mark at 3-3, as Mike McCoy's team rebounded from a defeat to the Bengals one week earlier in a 17-10 setback.

Denver continued its home domination, in spite of falling behind Tennessee, 21-10 in the second quarter. The Broncos blitzed the Titans, 31-7 in the second half to record a 51-28 rout and easily cash as 13-point favorites. Peyton Manning attempted 59 passes, but found a way to throw four more touchdowns to increase his season total to 45, while hitting four different receivers for scores. Denver improved to 7-0 SU and 5-1-1 ATS at home, as the Broncos went over the 40-point mark for the first time since a Week 8 blowout of Washington.

The last time the Broncos and Chargers faced off came in Week 10 at Qualcomm Stadium, as Denver came out with a 28-20 road triumph. The Broncos barely covered the seven-point number, in spite of building a 28-6 lead in the third quarter. Manning burned the Chargers' for four touchdowns, including a career-best three scores by wide receiver Demaryius Thomas. Denver has beaten San Diego four straight times, including the last three since the arrival of Manning with the Broncos prior to the 2012 season.

The Chargers have been listed as a three-point underdog or more three times on the highway this season, resulting in a 2-1 SU and 2-0-1 ATS record. San Diego won outright as 7½-point 'dogs at Philadelphia in Week 2, while pulling off a solid divisional triumph at Kansas City in Week 12 in a 41-38 shootout victory. The lone straight-up defeat came in Week 3 at Tennessee, as the Chargers pushed as three-point underdogs in a 20-17 setback as the Titans scored the go-ahead touchdown in the final minute.

Since the start of last season, the Broncos have put together a stellar 14-2 SU and 11-4-1 ATS record at Sports Authority Field with the two losses coming to Houston last September and the heartbreaking defeat to Baltimore in the second round of the 2012 playoffs. The Broncos continue to be a machine to the 'over' at home, cashing in six of seven contests in Colorado this season.

Denver wide receiver Wes Welker has been ruled out of Thursday's matchup after suffering a concussion in the win over Tennessee, his second concussion of the season. Welker has scored just two touchdowns in the last seven games after finding the end zone eight times in the first six contests.

VegasInsider.com handicapper Antony Dinero gives San Diego a shot here on the road, "The Chargers have no room for error if they want to get back to .500 and stay in the playoff race, so expect a desperate football team to show up for this AFC West clash. Without Welker, Manning has one less option, but odds are good he'll be able to do plenty of damage against a porous defense. Fortunately, Rivers is capable of winning a shootout, and this may be the week where second-string tight end LaDarius Green re-emerges as a game-breaker. However it goes, San Diego has to do whatever it takes, even if that means giving Ryan Mathews a season-high in carries for the second week in a row."

Denver is listed as a 10½-point favorite on Thursday, as the Broncos have cashed three of four times this season when laying double-digits. The total sits between 56 and 57 depending on where you shop, as the first meeting finished 'under' 56. The game kicks off at 8:30 PM EST and can be seen on the NFL Network.

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ANDRE GOMES
NBA - 503 Houston Rockets @ 504 Portland Trail Blazers
***DOUBLE DIME PLAY***
The public just love the Over in this contest and the total line jumped @215.5 points. My fair line
is 208/210 points so now we have the proper edge to make a big play w/ the UNDER.
These two teams are great offensive teams but I think that defense will be a key factor for
tonight due to the way the matchups will work.
After being humiliated @Utah by losing & allowing 109 points to the lowly Jazz, the Rockets have
now 3 solid consecutive great defensive games w/ Def. Rtg of 101.7, 84.0 and 94.2. In this
stretch, note that the great Warriors offense was held to just 83 points! Houston defensive
rebounding ranking in the league is a subpar #19 w/ 74.1% Defensive Rebounding% but lately
they have been great in not allowing offensive boards to their opponents, L5 games = 81%! This
is important because the Blazers are one of the best offensive rebounding teams in the league
(ranked #4 w/ 28.9%) and with the Rockets doing a solid job on the defensive glass, the Blazers
won’t be able to score on second chances. POR in their L4 games grabbed 16, 17, 17 and 11
offensive boards but tonight they will have a tough task to get that many off. Reb.
It might sound strange to say, but James Harden has looked better defensively lately. GSW
offensive strategy was to explore Harden’s bad defense but he answered pretty well in that game,
it was one of the biggest reasons why GSW struggled so badly offensively in that game. The
perception is that the Rockets are a bad defensive team but I have them ranked #8 in defensive
efficiency!
On the other end, the Blazers defense will have some problems to contain Dwight Howard but
their primary defensive principle – defend the 3pts line (they are ranked #6 allowing just 33.8%) is
built to face a team like the Rockets who are #1 in Three Pointers Attempted per Game w/ 27.6 mark. Note that after their great shooting display @SAS, the Rockets are shooting only 28%
behind the line (34-120) so we have a nice defensive edge in this key area.
In the first h2h, the Rockets won on the road in a game that ended w/ 217 points. Here some
factors that explains such high scoring outcome that won’t happen tonight: 1) The Rockets were
playing w/ Asik & Howard together on the front and with Jeremy Lin & Harden on the backcourt.
The current starting lineup w/ Beverly and Jones filling Asik & Lin makes the Rockets a better
defensive team when compared vs. early on the season; 2) Robin Lopez battled foul trouble
(played only 18 minutes) and his primary backup was Meyers Leonard! Obviously it was a field day
for Howard (10-13 FG, 9-12 FT) as it was too easy to score near the basket. I have HOU w/ 27-
41 FG near the basket in that game! Lopez is playing some solid basketball and Leonard was so
bad defensively that he is out of the rotation right now!
I'm taking the UNDER in here as my Double Dime Play!
Pick: 4 units (Double Dime Play) on 503/504 Under 215.5 @ -110

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Ecks and Bacon

Ben lee $plit out on Wednesday winning his wager of $100 on Napoli +150/Arsenal but losing his $50 wager on the draw +$220 for a profit of $100.

For Thursday E&B are on the Chargers +10.5/Broncos in the NFL.

Ecks and Bacon is 3-3 +$235 for the week and 25-33-2 -$1143 so far in week seven.


All E&B selections will be for $50 unless noted.

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Brad Wilton
60 DIME
SD/DEN
OVER 56-56 1/2

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Vegas Runner

2* NBA Nets +2

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Ats insiders club

Chargers +10.5

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TheSportsCapper

Thursday

100* Play San Diego +10.5 over Denver (NFL TOP PLAY)

San Diego has won 50 of the last 84 games after scoring 30 points or more in their last game and they have also won 44 of the last 72 games coming off a win by 14 points or more in their last game.

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XpertPicks

Thursday NFL Football


Play OVER 56 Denver/San Diego (TOP NFL PLAY)---RISK 20% OF YOUR BANKROLL
8:30 PM EST



Denver has gone OVER the total in 11 of the last 13 games when playing as a favorite and they have also gone OVER the total in 12 of the last 15 home games. Denver has gone OVER the total in 9 of the last 10 games when the total posted is greater than 49.5 points and the have gone OVER the total in 8 of the last 9 games when playing with six days or less of rest.

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YourBookiesMoney (7-2-1 Last 10 Plays)

3*Portland Under Team Total 108 1/2 Total Points

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Joe Nelson

Denver -10

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Bio Sports Picks
NFL: Chargers/Broncos UNDER 56.6
NCAAB: Boston College +2
NBA: Trailblazers -3

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NORTHCOAST
marquee
over the total Denver/Chargers

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J Clifton
NCAAB
Boston college +2

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Intpicks

2* San Diego/Denver Over 56

1* De Paul -11

1* Clippers/Brooklyn Under 197

Boston College +3