12-23-13

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Today's NFL Pick

MONDAY, DECEMBER 23
Time Posted: 6:00 a.m. EST (12/18) Game 131-132: Atlanta at San Francisco (8:40 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Atlanta 129.779; San Francisco 139.849
Dunkel Line: San Francisco by 10; 49
Vegas Line: San Francisco by 13; 45
Dunkel Pick: Atlanta (+13); Over

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NCAA Football Game Pick

MONDAY, DECEMBER 23
Time Posted: 8:00 p.m. EST (12/16) Game 209-210: East Carolina vs. Ohio (2:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: East Carolina 93.439; Ohio 59.372
Dunkel Line: East Carolina by 34; 57
Vegas Line: East Carolina by 13 1/2; 62
Dunkel Pick: East Carolina (-13 1/2); Under

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NCAAF

Beef O'Brady Bowl St Petersburg,

9-3 East Carolina played three games decided by less than 14 points, as eight of nine Pirate wins were by 14+; ECU is 5-4 as favorite, covering last three tries- they're 3-3 when laying double digits. Pirates lost last four bowl games, giving up 94 points in last two. 7-5 Ohio lost its first three November games by combined score of 123-16, then beat woeful UMass in finale; Bobcats are in fifth straight bowl, upsetting Utah State, ULM last two years. Ohio is 1-3 vs spread when getting points. Six of last seven ECU games, four of last six Ohio games went over the total. MAC road underdogs are 12-16 vs spread in non-league games; C-USA favorites are 5-8 vs spread, 2-2 away from home. Both teams have QBs with experience; Ohio's QB is Tyler Tettleton (dad was MLB catcher). C-USA teams won this bowl last two years after losing previous three; only one of the five games was decided by less than ten points.

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Beef 'O' Brady's Bowl: What bettors need to know

East Carolina Pirates vs. Ohio Bobcats (+14, 62)

BEEF 'O' BRADY'S BOWL STORYLINES:

1. Two experienced, productive quarterbacks bring high-octane offenses to the Beef ‘O’ Brady’s Bowl at Tropicana Field in St. Petersburg, Fla. on Monday, Dec. 23. Junior Shane Carden threw 55 touchdown passes – 19 to standout junior receiver Justin Hardy -- in the last two seasons for East Carolina, which averaged 40.4 points this season. Ohio senior Tyler Tettleton recorded 66 scoring strikes in three years at the helm and the Bobcats scored 38 or more five times in the last nine games.

2. One key will be which team can get to the quarterback and disrupt the passing game. The Pirates have registered 35 sacks, tied for 14th in the nation, and allowed 28 while Ohio boasts 34 sacks and has given up 16.

3. East Carolina is looking to snap a four-game losing streak in bowls while trying to improve an 8-10 overall record. Ohio plays in its fifth straight bowl and has won the last two, including 45-14 over Louisiana-Monroe at the Independence Bowl in 2012.

TV: 2 p.m. ET, ESPN.

LINE: East Carolina opened -12.5 and is now -14. The total opened 61.5 and is up to 62.

WEATHER: N/A

ABOUT EAST CAROLINA (9-3, 6-2 Conference-USA): Hardy averaged 8.8 receptions – fifth in the nation -- for 1,218 yards and eight scores and is only 19 receiving yards shy of 3,000 in his career. If Ohio decides to devote extra attention to Hardy, receiver Isaiah Jones (54 receptions, 556 yards) or running back Vintavious Cooper (995 rushing yards, 11 TDs) can hurt the Bobcats. East Carolina, which owns victories over North Carolina and North Carolina State, is led on defense by senior LB Derrell Johnson (7.5 sacks).

ABOUT OHIO (7-5, 4-4 Mid-American): The Bobcats snapped a three-game losing streak by totaling 461 yards in a 51-23 home victory over Massachusetts in the regular-season finale. Tettleton has completed 33-of-48 passes for 551 yards and four touchdowns with one interception in his two bowl outings, and he'll look often for Donte Foster, who has 63 catches and 858 yards this season. Beau Blankenship, who ran for four touchdowns and 104 yards in last year’s bowl game, totaled 844 yards this season – 124 versus UMass – and owns 24 career rushing TDs.

TRENDS:

* Pirates are 9-0 ATS in their last nine games following a S.U. loss.
* Bobcats are 4-1 ATS in their last five vs. CUSA.
* Over is 4-1 in Pirates last five Bowl games.
* Under is 6-1-1 in Bobcats last eight neutral site games.

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NFL

Week 16

Falcons (4-10) @ 49ers (10-4)-- Niners are bully team; other than Seattle win, its last eight wins are all by 12+ points- they're 4-3 as home favorites. Atlanta has had awful year but they're still competing; their last four games (2-2) were decided by 4 or less points; they're +8 in turnovers last three weeks, after being + in turnovers in only one of first eleven games. SF hasn't been minus in turnovers since Week 3 loss to Indy. Falcons covered last three games as a dog, won four of five games vs SF since teams stopped being division rivals, but 49ers won 28-24 in Atlanta in LY's playoffs, which seems like long time ago for Falcon fans. NFC West favorites are 19-5-2 vs spread, 9-3-1 at home; NFC South underdogs are 8-9, 6-5 on road. five of 49ers' last six games stayed under total. This is last game in Candlestick Park.

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Stephen Nover

CFB Total - Monday, Dec 23 2013 2:00PM
209 Ohio / 210 East Carolina OVER 62.0 double-dime bet

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Diamond Dog Sports

NFL

5* 49ers -14.0 -110

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Norm Hitzges

Beef O'Brady Bowl: E. Carolina--Ohio OVER 62

San Francisco -13 Atlanta

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Monday Night Football Betting: Falcons at 49ers

Atlanta Falcons at San Francisco 49ers (-14, 45)

With a home playoff game unlikely, the San Francisco 49ers probably are playing their final game at Candlestick Park on Monday night when they host the Atlanta Falcons. And it's a big one - the 49ers can clinch a playoff spot with a win or an Arizona loss. "I get chills just talking about it," 49ers tackle Anthony Davis told the team's website. "It's not the best looking stadium, but there's so much history there. It's an honor to be able to play in it the last year it will be here. I don't take that for granted."

Atlanta has won four straight meetings in the regular season, but the Falcons have fallen precipitously since their 28-24 home loss to the 49ers in last season's NFC Championship and are tied for the third-worst record in the league. "You fight tooth and nail for wins on Sundays, Mondays, Thursdays, whatever the case may be, and they've had some close losses and some games that haven't gone their way," 49ers coach Jim Harbaugh told reporters. "This year, more than any year I've been coaching or in this league, everybody's fighting tooth and nail for these wins and this will be no different Monday night."

LINE: The 49ers opened as 12-point home faves and have been bet to -14. The total as stayed put at 45.

WEATHER: It will be clear with temperatures in the mid 50s.

COVERS POWER RANKINGS: Atlanta (+5.5) - San Francisco (-6.5) + home field (-3) = San Francisco -15

ABOUT THE FALCONS (4-10, 5-9 ATS): Atlanta's season never got off the ground in large part because the running game never got going, but the Falcons have won two of their last three and are trying to salvage something. "Doesn't matter if you're 2-10 or 10-2, when you start that fourth quarter (of the season), we all have the goal and that is to finish strong," coach Mike Smith told reporters. "The teams that are playing for playoff spots, they want to finish strong as well. I don't think it really changes your attitude at all." The passing game has been a bright spot, but 12 of Matt Ryan's 14 interceptions have come on the road.

ABOUT THE 49ERS (10-4, 10-4 ATS): San Francisco again boasts one of the league's top defenses and is coming off a dominant performance in a 33-14 win at Tampa Bay last week. The passing game hasn't had to do too much thanks to the NFL's No. 5 ground game with Frank Gore (1,017 yards, 8 TDs) and quarterback Colin Kaepernick (449 yards, 3 TDs) leading the way. The receiving corps keeps getting stronger, though, with Michael Crabtree and Mario Manningham back from injuries to complement Anquan Boldin and tight end Vernon Davis.

TRENDS:

* Underdog is 9-4 ATS in their last 13 meetings.
* Falcons are 3-7 ATS in thir last 10 meetings.
* Falcons are 2-6 ATS in their last eight meetings in San Francisco.
* 49ers are 5-0 ATS in their last five games versus a team with a losing record.

EXTRA POINTS:

1. The 49ers are 11-0 when Kaepernick starts and has a rating of 100 or better, while the Falcons are 34-2 when Ryan does the same.

2. The Falcons are 6-0 in games played on the West Coast under coach Mike Smith.

3. Atlanta WR Roddy White has caught a pass in a franchise-record 111 consecutive games, while TE Tony Gonzalez has a reception in 209 straight games dating to his time with Kansas City - the second-longest streak in NFL history.

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49ers, Falcons clash on MNF
By Sportsbook.ag

Atlanta Falcons (4-10 SU, 5-9 ATS) at San Francisco 49ers (10-4 SU, 9-4-1 ATS)

Sportsbook.ag Line, Total: San Francisco -12, 45

Two teams heading in completely opposite directions clash Monday night when the Falcons visit the 49ers. While Atlanta has won-and-covered the same game just three times all season, San Francisco won its fourth straight game (3-1 ATS) last week with a 33-14 blowout victory in Tampa Bay.

These teams last met in the NFC Championship last season where the 49ers erased an early 17-0 deficit and finished the game on a 28-7 run to win 28-24 and advance to the Super Bowl. That comeback victory snapped the Falcons' four-game win streak in this series, but since 1992, the Niners hold a 16-10 advantage (SU and ATS) in this series, including a 10-2 SU mark (8-4 ATS) at home where the Over has gone 8-4. Atlanta is 13-3 ATS (81%) in road games after allowing 450+ total yards in its previous game since 1992, but San Francisco is 28-9 ATS (76%) when playing on Monday night in that same timeframe.

In terms of injuries, the Falcons could be weakened on defense with both LB Sean Weatherspoon (knee) and S Thomas DeCoud (head) 'questionable' for this game, while the 49ers could be missing some offensive depth with FB Bruce Miller (arm, IR) out and TE Vance McDonald (ankle) and WRs Quinton Patton (foot) and Jon Baldwin (calf) all 'questionable' for Monday.

The Falcons are having a miserable season, but are still playing hard with a 3-1 ATS mark in their past four games. Last Sunday they defeated the Redskins 27-26 behind two touchdowns on the ground from RB Steven Jackson.

QB Matt Ryan threw for 210 yards with one touchdown and one interception, while TE Tony Gonzalez was his top target with six catches for 62 yards and a touchdown. Atlanta’s passing offense has held up rather well throughout injuries this season, as Ryan has thrown for 277.6 yards per game (7h in NFL) with 22 TD and 13 INT. This has made up for a horrendous ground game that ranks last in the NFL with 79.3 rushing YPG.

Another big problem for Atlanta has been its struggles on the defensive end, with the team allowing 386.3 total YPG (29th in NFL), broken down into 131.4 yards per game on the ground (29th in NFL) and 254.9 yards per game through the air (25th in NFL). The Falcons were bailed out last week with some big plays though, forcing seven Redskins turnovers which is the same amount of takeaways they had amassed in the previous seven games combined. They will need to force some more miscues from Colin Kaepernick and San Francisco’s versatile offensive attack.

San Francisco has outscored opponents 102 to 50 during its four-game win streak with its defense allowing just 237.3 total YPG during this win surge. For the season, the Niners have allowed just 16.3 PPG and 299.1 total YPG, which both rank third-best in the NFL. They have done a great job in both facets, allowing only 199.7 passing YPG (4th in league) and 99.4 rushing YPG (6th in NFL), and have not allowed many long drives with a 33% third-down conversion rate.

Offensively, the 49ers rely mostly on their running game which is gaining 137.1 YPG (5th in NFL). RB Frank Gore rushed for 86 yards (3.9 YPC) of the team's 187 yards in the win over Tampa Bay last week. Gore has racked up 1,017 yards (4.2 YPC) and eight touchdowns on the season, and he scored the final two touchdowns of the NFC Championship win in Atlanta in January to cap off his day with 90 rushing yards on 4.3 YPC.

The Niners should be able to exploit the Falcons' porous defense even through the air where they have not clicked all season. They are throwing for just 179.1 yards per game (30th in NFL), but QB Colin Kaepernick (7.5 YPA, 18 TD, 8 INT) has played well during the win streak (8.1 YPA, 7 TD and 1 INT). This includes going 19-of-29 for 203 yards, 2 TD and 0 INT in last week's win over the Buccaneers.

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MNF - Falcons at 49ers
By Kevin Rogers

The Falcons were a few plays away from winning the NFC Championship over the 49ers last season. Instead, San Francisco grabbed the road win and the NFC title, as the Niners look to beat the Falcons again on Monday night. However, Atlanta is playing the role of spoiler this time around with little to play for following a disastrous season.

Mike Smith's team is suffering through a 4-10 season and last place in the NFC South, while enduring key injuries to wide receivers Julio Jones and Roddy White. Jones fractured his foot back in a Week 5 home loss to the Jets, while White missed three games with a hamstring injury and has broken the 100-yard plateau in just one contest. The Falcons started the campaign at 2-9, but Atlanta has won two of the last three games, including an exciting home victory last Sunday.

For the first time in eight weeks, the Falcons were listed as a favorite, taking on the struggling Redskins. Atlanta held off Washington as the Redskins failed to convert the go-ahead two-point conversion in the final minute of play in a 27-26 home victory. Washington cashed as 5 ½-point underdogs, while outgaining Atlanta by 233 yards. For all the problems the Falcons have gone through this season, the non-cover actually snapped a three-game ATS win streak for Atlanta.

The 49ers are riding a four-game hot streak after going cross-country and dominating the Buccaneers, 33-14 as 4 ½-point road favorites. San Francisco has limited all four opponents during this winning stretch to 17 points or less, while Tampa Bay put up only 184 yards of offense. Colin Kaepernick tossed a pair of touchdowns, as San Francisco held onto the ball for nearly 40 minutes.

Rewinding back to the previous meeting between the 49ers and Falcons last January at the Georgia Dome, San Francisco actually entered that contest as a 3½-point road favorite and trailed 17-0 in the second quarter after two early touchdown passes from Matt Ryan. The Niners erased a 24-14 halftime deficit by outscoring the Falcons, 14-0 in the second half, as Frank Gore rushed for a pair of touchdowns to give San Francisco its first NFC title since 1994 in a 28-24 triumph.

After starting the season at 1-2 SU/ATS, San Francisco has rolled from a pointspread standpoint by cashing in nine of the last 11 games with the two non-covers coming to playoff squads Seattle and Carolina. Jim Harbaurgh's own a terrific 7-0 SU/ATS record against teams eliminated from postseason contention, while Green Bay may not qualify for the playoffs and the Niners beat the Packers in Week 1.

The Falcons have had their issues away from the Georgia Dome this season, losing six of seven away contests. However, following five straight ATS losses on the highway, Atlanta has covered its last two on the road against Buffalo and Green Bay. In the role of an underdog, the Falcons have limped to a 3-6 ATS record, but have covered three in a row in this situation.

Baltimore's last-minute victory at Detroit in Week 15 snapped a four-game winning and cover streak for favorites on Monday night contests. Since there is no Monday night game in Week 17, this is the final Monday nighter of the season as favorites own a 10-6 SU and 7-8-1 ATS record. Following a 5-1 run to the 'over' to start on Mondays, the 'under' has caught up the last two months with an 8-2 stretch, as 'unders' are currently 9-7 in the Monday primetime slot.

From a totals perspective, the Falcons started the season at 5-1 to the 'over,' but the 'under' is 5-3 the past eight weeks. The 49ers have trended in a similar direction with five of their first eight games sailing 'over' the total, while five of the last six have finished 'under' the total.

The Niners are listed as heavy 14-point favorites on Monday night, while the total is set at 46. The game kicks off at 8:30 PM EST and can be seen nationally on ESPN.

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Bank shots: NBA's weekly betting news and notes

Each week, we look back on the NBA betting scene and give you the best - and worst - basketball bets, as well as some spots to keep an eye on with the upcoming schedule.

For the week of Dec. 15 to 21.

Hottest ATS - Los Angeles Clippers (3-0 SU, 3-0 ATS)

It seems like the L.A. Clippers are becoming the balanced team Doc Rivers had envisioned when he took over the head coaching job in L.A. In what could have been a letdown week after returning from a seven-game road trip, the Clippers played extremely well, which included an impressive 115-92 win over San Antonio. The Clippers are not surprisingly a Top 5 offense, but where they have improved is at the defensive end of the court, giving up only 98.5 points per game, good for tenth. This week the Clippers have some tough matchups with Minnesota, Golden State and Portland before finishing up against Utah.

Coldest ATS - Portland Trail Blazer (3-1 SU, 0-4 ATS)

It feels weird writing about the Portland Trail Blazers as the coldest of anything, let alone ATS, but after this week, that is exactly what they are. The week saw another Blazer win streak - five in a row this time - come to an end at Minnesota, at the conclusion of a four game road trip. How good the Blazers are is no longer a secret in the NBA and they are going to get every team's best effort moving forward. So despite winning eight of their past 10 games, they are only 5-5 ATS in that span. The Blazer only have two games next week, but they are tough ones, with one versus the aforementioned Clippers and the Miami Heat.

Best Over play - Detroit Pistons (2-2 SU, 4-0 O/U)

That's back-to-back weeks with the Pistons as our best Over play, and boy do they deserve it. They have hit the Over nine games in a row, going over the total by an average of 11.5 points per game in that stretch. They are now the league's best Over play with a 22-7 O/U mark on the season. The Pistons continue to improve on offense scoring 100.3 points per game, while still being in the bottom third in the league on defense, giving up102 points per game. The Pistons have three road games this week, with contests at Cleveland, Orlando and Washington.

Best Under play - Denver Nuggets (1-3 SU, 0-4 O/U)

The Nuggets had a tough week against some solid competition including matchups with two of the league's hottest teams in the L.A. Clippers and the Oklahoma City Thunder. The Nuggets have actually hit the Under seven games in a row and in nine of their past 10. Denver has only scored an average of 93.7 points during their current Under streak, while giving up at least 103 points in four of its past five games. The Nuggets have a date at home with the Golden State Warriors before their Christmas break before ending the week at New Orleans and Memphis.

Surveying the schedule

Some teams will get a bit of a break during the holdidays, but 10 teams this Christmas will be giving us the gift of five consecutive games of NBA action on Christmas Day. The holiday action begins at Noon ET, with Brooklyn hosting Chicago, then Oklahoma City travels to New York, Miami takes on the L.A. Lakers, Houston faces San Antonio and the last of the stocking stuffers is when the Clippers head to Golden State to battle the Warriors.

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Pucking the trends: This week's best NHL bets

Every week, we update you on who's hot, who's not and situational betting spots in the National Hockey League:

For the week of Dec. 16 - Dec. 22

Hot team

Anaheim Ducks (3-0 SU)

Nothing can stop the red-hot Ducks these days - not even an East Coast road swing. The Ducks strode into hostile Detroit to start the week and escaped with a 5-2 victory in what was one of the team's best games of the year. Anaheim followed that up with a 3-2 overtime victory in New Jersey and capped its perfect week with its eighth consecutive victory, a 5-3 decision over the New York Islanders in which Ryan Getzlaf notched his second career hat trick. Anaheim wraps up its four-game trek Monday in Washington before hosting Phoenix and visiting San Jose over the weekend.

Cold team

Edmonton Oilers (0-3 SU)

Major changes may be in the future in Edmonton after the lowly Oilers endured another difficult week. Dallas Eakins' club opened with a 3-0 defeat at the hands of the Los Angeles Kings before dropping a 4-2 decision in Colorado, before winding things up with a terrible effort en route to a 6-0 home loss to St. Louis. The Oilers have dropped six-straight games and rank near the bottom of the league in most statistical categories. The week ahead is slightly more promising, with home games against Winnipeg and Philadelphia and a road tilt with provincial rival Calgary.

Best over play

Philadelphia Flyers (3-0 O/U)

Things are looking up in the City of Brotherly Love, where the Flyers completed the long trek back to .500 after a dismal start to the season. Philadelphia kicked things off with a 5-2 victory over the Washington Capitals, then followed it up with a 5-4 triumph over Columbus. A poor defensive effort in the finale of the home-and-home with the Blue Jackets resulted in a 6-3 defeat, but with just two games next week - home to Minnesota and at Edmonton - and with the offense humming along, expect more solid "over" play from the Flyers.

Best under play

Dallas Stars (1-3 O/U)

In a week where the Over dominated the league, the Stars were the exception - and just barely, playing their final three games of the week just a half-goal under the total. That certainly hasn't been the trend in Dallas, where the Stars are 18-15 O/U for the campaign and are one of only four Western Conference teams to have scored and allowed more than 100 goals so far this season. However, with games against defensive powers Los Angeles and St. Louis coming up in a short week, Dallas may be a strong Under play again.

Surveying the schedule

The holiday docket is a light one, with teams enjoying three days off in the middle. The Pittsburgh Penguins are one of the more intriguing plays of the week, as they look to extend their seven-game winning streak and already colossal lead atop the Metropolitan Division. The Penguins have been a surprisingly reliable Under play to date - going 15-19-4 O/U - but played three straight Overs to end last week as the Sidney Crosby-led offense hits its stride. Pittsburgh plays road games at Ottawa, Carolina and Columbus this week.

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Arsenal v Chelsea: What bettors need to know

The real gem of this round's Premier League fixture list takes place Monday as Arsenal hosts Chelsea in a battle of heavyweights.

Why bet Arsenal: The Gunners have temporarily lost the top spot in the league table as both Liverpool and Manchester City leapfrogged them with wins Saturday. Not to worry though, as three points will put them back on top. They will miss Jack Wilshere in the center of the park Monday however. Wilshere gave Manchester City fans a double-barreled salute following Arsenal's loss to the Citizens. Theo Walcott could feature prominently as he was Arsenal's best performer in the loss to City, notching a pair of nice goals.

Key players out/doubtful: Jack Wilshere, Alex Oxlade-Chamberlain, Yaya Sanogo, Laurent Koscielny

Why bet Chelsea: The Blues sit fourth in the table despite some mind-boggling losses this season. Most recently, a 3-2 loss at Stoke. Jose Mourinho extended his unbeaten run at Stamford Bridge last week as Chelsea defeated Crystal Palace by a 2-1 scoreline. A midweek loss to Sunderland in the league cup won't sit well with either the players or the supporters, so Chelsea will be poised for a big performance in an attempt to push Arsenal further down the ladder.

Key players out/doubtful: Ryan Bertrand, Michael Essien, Marco van Ginkel

2012-13 fixture result: Arsenal 1, Chelsea 2

Key betting note: In nine meetings between Monday's two managers, Mourinho has the upper-hand with five wins and four draws. Arsene Wenger has never beaten The Special One.