12-26-13

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NCAA Football Game Picks

THURSDAY, DECEMBER 26 Time Posted: 8:00 p.m. EST (12/16)

Game 213-214: Pittsburgh vs. Bowling Green (6:00 p.m. EST) Dunkel Ratings: Pittsburgh 84.332; Bowling Green 100.650 Dunkel Line: Bowling Green by 16 1/2; 46 Vegas Line: Bowling Green by 5; 50 Dunkel Pick: Bowling Green (-5); Under

Game 215-216: Utah State vs. Northern Illinois (9:30 p.m. EST) Dunkel Ratings: Utah State 91.807; Northern Illinois 91.074 Dunkel Line: Utah State by 4 1/2; 63 Vegas Line: Northern Illinois by 1 1/2; 58 Dunkel Pick: Utah State (+1 1/2); Over

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Little Caesars Pizza Bowl betting: What bettors need to know

Pittsburgh Panthers at Bowling Green Falcons (-4, 50)

Game will be played at Ford Field, Detroit, Michigan

LITTLE CAESARS BOWL STORYLINES:

1. Bowling Green returns to Ford Field for the second time in 20 days on Dec. 26 when it faces Pittsburgh in the Little Caesars Pizza Bowl. The Falcons claimed their first MAC Championship in 21 years with a 47-27 victory over previously undefeated Northern Illinois, but they will make this trip to Detroit without Dave Clawson, who filled the coaching vacancy at Wake Forest after turning Bowling Green around in five seasons. Special teams coordinator Adam Scheier will serve as the interim coach.

2. For the first time since 2009, the Panthers will spend the postseason somewhere else besides Birmingham, Ala. Pittsburgh concluded each of its last three years in the BBVA Compass Bowl, defeating Kentucky at the end of the its 2010 season before ending the last two campaigns with losses to Southern Methodist and Mississippi.

3. The Falcons rank fifth in the country in scoring defense (14.8 points) and eighth in total defense (308.7 yards), but the most dominant defensive player on the field figures to be Panthers defensive tackle Aaron Donald. The Bronko Nagurski Trophy winner and ACC Defensive Player of the Year leads the nation in tackles for loss (26.5), is tied for eighth in forced fumbles (four) and tied for 13th in sacks (10).

TV: 6 p.m. ET, ESPN.

LINE: The Falcons opened as 6-point faves, but have been bet down to -4. The total has stayed put at 50.

WEATHER: N/A.

ABOUT PITTSBURGH (6-6, 5-7 ATS): Donald, who is also a finalist for the Lombardi, Bednarik and Outland Trophies, is the first Pitt defensive player to win a national award since Hugh Green claimed the Lombardi, Maxwell and Walter Camp awards in 1980. With 77 catches for 1,001 yards, Tyler Boyd broke Larry Fitzgerald’s school record of 69 receptions by a freshman and needs only five more yards to surpass him in that category. Devin Street is the school’s all-time leading receiver and the first Panther with more than 200 career catches.

ABOUT BOWLING GREEN (10-3, 10-3 ATS): While the defense receives more credit, the offense has done its fair share during the Falcons’ five-game winning streak in which they have outscored opponents 223-44. Matt Johnson, who threw for a career-high 393 yards and broke a MAC championship record with five touchdown passes, has thrown for at least three scores four times during the winning streak. Travis Greene has rushed for over 100 yards nine times and ran for 1,575 yards this season, both of which are school records.

TRENDS:

* Pittsburgh is 5-0 ATS in its last five games in December.
* Bowling Green is 5-0 ATS in its last five games following a SU win.
* Under is 6-1 in Pittsburgh's last seven bowl games.
* Under is 4-0 in Bowling Green's last four non-conference games.

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Poinsettia Bowl betting: What bettors need to know

Utah State Aggies vs. Northern Illinois Huskies (-1.5, 58)

The game will be played at Qualcomm Stadium, San Diego, California

SAN DIEGO COUNTY CREDIT UNION POINSETTIA BOWL STORYLINES:

1. Heisman Trophy finalist Jordan Lynch plays the final game of his stellar college career when No. 23 Northern Illinois faces Utah State in the San Diego County Credit Union Poinsettia Bowl on Dec. 26. Lynch has passed for 2,676 yards and 23 touchdowns, but it is his running abilities that allowed him to crash the Heisman festivities. Lynch rushed for 1,881 yards and 22 scores and twice ran for more than 300 yards in a game.

2. The Huskies were hoping to play in a BCS bowl for the second straight year but were relegated to the Poinsettia Bowl after losing to Bowling Green in the Mid-American Conference title game. A victory would give Northern Illinois the first 13-win season in school history while Utah State is playing in back-to-back-to-back bowls for the first time ever and is looking for the third bowl victory in school history.

3. The Aggies lost star quarterback Chuckie Keeton at midseason and it was thought their fortunes would spiral downward. But Utah State rebounded to win its final five regular-season games and is brimming with confidence after giving Fresno State a hard battle in the Mountain West title game before succumbing.

TV: 9:30 p.m. ET, ESPN.

LINE: The line hasn't moved off -1.5 and the total has stayed put at 58.

WEATHER: It will be clear with temperatures in the mid 60s.

ABOUT NORTHERN ILLINOIS (12-1, 8-5 ATS): The Huskies average 41.6 points and 535.5 total yards with nearly 60 percent of the production (312.5) coming on the ground. Lynch is complemented by running back Cameron Stingily (1,081, nine touchdowns) and his favorite targets are possession receiver Tommylee Lewis (80 catches, 660 yards) and big-play wideout Da’Ron Brown (42 for 689, nine TDs). Northern Illinois allows 25.4 points per game and the defense is led by safety Jimmie Ward (team leader with 89 tackles and six interceptions), outside linebacker Jamaal Bass (81 stops) and middle linebacker Boomer Mayes (77 tackles).

ABOUT UTAH STATE (8-5, 8-5 ATS): The Aggies are stout on defense, ranking seventh in scoring defense (17.3), 10th in rushing defense (107.3) and 12th in total defense (332.1) while featuring several standouts. Inside linebackers Jake Doughty (140 tackles, 10.5 for loss) and Zach Vigil (115 tackles, 12.5 for loss) are always around the ball while cornerback Nevin Lawson and safety Brian Suite each have four interceptions. Freshman Darell Garretson (1,325 yards, nine touchdowns) replaced Keeton at quarterback for an offense that also features running back Joey DeMartino (1,078 yards, 12 scores) and three wideouts who caught 50 or more passes in Bruce Natson (56), Travis Reynolds (51) and Travis Van Leeuwen (50).

TRENDS:

* Utah State is 12-3 ATS in its last 15 non-conference games.
* Norther Illinois is 1-6 ATS in its last seven games in December.
* Under is 4-0 in Utah State's last four games overall.
* Over is 4-0 in Northern Illinois last four non-conference games.

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Dave Cokin

213 Pittsburgh +5.5

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From the COLLEGE BOWL GUIDE
STATFOX FORECASTER

LITTLE CAESARS PIZZA BOWL:
PITTSBURGH (213) AT BOWLING GREEN (214)

Latest Line: Bowling Green -4.5; Total: 50.0
Bowling Green will play its second straight game at Ford Field when it seeks a sixth consecutive victory facing a Pittsburgh team that's 2-4 SU in its past six games. The MAC champion Falcons are allowing just 14.8 PPG this year (5th in nation), while their offense has 44.6 PPG on 506 total YPG during the win streak with QB Matt Johnson throwing for 274 YPG and 14 TD. The Panthers, who are ending a run of three straight BBVA Compass Bowl appearances, rank 86th in the nation in scoring offense (26.0 PPG), and have allowed 28.0 PPG on 390 total YPG in their past four contests.
FORECASTER: Bowling Green 32, Pittsburgh 18

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Phil Steel Inside the PressBox Thursday Bowl Predictions:

BEST BET: PITT 24 BOWLING GREEN 23


UTAH ST 30 N ILLINOIS 24

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Northcoast Marquee

bowl double play line #214 BOWLING GREEN UNDER 50

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Mark Franco

Bowling Green -5

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Scott Ferrall paid picks
Pittsburgh
BOWLING GREEN -5 ½


Utah State
NORTHERN ILLINOIS -1 ½



MARSHALL -2 ½
Maryland


Syracuse
MINNESOTA -4 ½


Washington
BYU +3

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Sports Insights Bowl Picks

215 Poinsettia Bowl: Utah St +1.5 over Northern Illinois – Northern Illinois just cannot be motivated and it’s a great matchup for the USU run defense that is among the best in the country. I suppose the Utah St offense could be a means for concern especially at QB, but they have enough to win this this game and should be favored.

216 Poinsettia Bowl: Utah St/Northern Illinois under 58 – Great matchup for both defenses as both are better at stopping run. Utah St offense probably not capable of fully exploiting a bad No Ill defense. My best totals model has this at 54 and another rating system I use makes it only 47.

213 Little Caesers Pizza Bowl: Pittsburgh +5 over Bowling Green – I really like the Pitt coaching staff and I feel that there’s an inflated perception of BG after killing Northern Illinois in the MAC Title game. Northern Illinois is so overrated and BG pass offense shredded them. Anyhow, Pitt should be able to run the ball down BG’s throat.

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H&H Sports

CFB Triple Dime Bowling Green

Double Dime Utah State

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Chicago Syndicate

CFB Bowling Green

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Sports Nostradamus

CFB Bowling Green

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LA Syndicate

CFB Utah State & Under