1-1-14

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DOC SPORTS

3 Unit Play. #252 Take South Carolina Gamecocks +1.5 over Wisconsin Badgers (Capital One Bowl, Wednesday, 1/1 1 pm ABC) I just am not a fan of Badger QB Joel Stave. These are very similar teams in a lot of respects, but Connor Shaw gives South Carolina a big edge at quarterback.

3 Unit Play. #255 Take Michigan State Spartans +6 over Stanford Cardinal (Rose Bowl, Wednesday, 1/1, 5 pm ESPN) Mag 7 Game. This is one of the few BCS Bowl games besides the Championship Game that people are excited for. We used Michigan State last year as our Bowl Game of the Year and will use them again as another strong play this season. Stanford has some great wins on the season, but their defense is better equipped to stop spread teams, and Sparty would certainly not be considered a spread team. Stanford has embarrassing losses to USC and Utah, and do not expect them to be able to run through this Spartan defense. Stanford plays conservative on offense, and thus I see this game going like their Rose Bowl game with Wisconsin last year. Michigan State is a much better team than Wisconsin was last year, yet the Cardinal struggled to score and could never put them away. Michigan State is 4-0 ATS in their last four neutral-site games. This will be a field goal game, and we will cover with whoever comes out on

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PREDICTION MACHINE

Against the Spread Picks

253 IOWA vs LSU 7.5 -4.7 54.9% $26
251 WISC vs SC -1 4.2 54.7% $24
247 NEB vs UGA 9 -6.2 54.1% $18
258 BAYLOR vs UCF -16.5 19.9 53.8% $15
249 UNLV vs NORTX 6.5 -4.3 53.5% $12
256 MSU vs STAN 4.5 -3.6 51.6% $0

Straight-Up Picks

258 BAYLOR vs UCF 43.9 24.0 77.1%
248 UGA vs NEB 34.9 28.7 59.6%
254 LSU vs IOWA 25.7 21.0 58.3%
250 NORTX vs UNLV 28.3 24.0 57.6%
251 WISC vs SC 29.9 25.7 56.7%
255 STAN vs MSU 22.4 18.8 56.6%

Over/Under Picks

252 WISC vs. SC 49.5 55.6 Over 58.9% $68
250 UNLV vs. NORTX 56 52.3 Under 54.9% $26
248 NEB vs. UGA 60.5 63.6 Over 53.9% $16
254 IOWA vs. LSU 49 46.6 Under 53.8% $15
258 UCF vs. BAYLOR 71 67.8 Under 53.5% $12
256 STAN vs. MSU 41 41.2 Over 50.4% $0

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NHL

Hot teams
-- Canucks won ten of their last thirteen games.

Cold teams
-- Detroit lost eight of its last 11 games. Maple Leafs lost ten of their last eleven road games.
-- Lightning lost last two games, but won last three on road.

Totals
-- Last four Detroit-Toronto games went over the total.
-- Over is 3-1-1 in last five Tampa Bay games.

Series records
-- Toronto is 3-2 in last five games vs Detroit; this game is outdoors in Ann Arbor.
-- Lightning-Canucks split last six meetings (1-2 at each other's rinks).

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Free Selection from Arthur Ralph Sports

ALL Free Plays are 1148-877 (57%) over the last 5 1/2 years

Free winner THURS Pacers -5

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Football Crusher
Nebraska +9 over Georgia
(System Record: 51-4, lost last game)
Overall Record: 51-47-1

Hockey Crusher
Detroit Red Wings -127 over Toronto MapleLeafs
(System Record: 50-0, won last 4 games)
Overall Record: 50-28-1

Basketball Crusher
Colorado State +4.5 over San Diego State
(System Record: 30-2, lost last 2 games)
Overall Record: 30-34-1

Soccer Crusher
Manchester United + Tottenham Hotspur UNDER 3
This match is happening in England
(System Record: 500-18, lost last 3 games)
Overall Record: 500-434-73

Here are the rest of his hockey and basketball plays for today...


Hockey
Vancouver Canucks -150 over Tampa Bay Lightning
Tampa Bay Lightning + Vancouver Canucks OVER 5
Toronto Maple Leafs + Detroit Red Wings UNDER 5


Basketball
Evansville +7.5 over Drake
Utah State -9 over Air Force
Boston College +11 over Harvard

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Gamblers Data

Free Plays Wednesday

Baylor Ist Half -9

Wisconsin under 51

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College Bowl Betting Tips: New Year’s Day Games
By Marc Lawrence

Let’s take a look at what’s trending this New Year’s Day bowl card. All ATS records extracted form the 2013 PLAYBOOK College Bowl Stat Report.

Bowling For Dollars

Here is a look at the most recent trends that have occurred inside each of the five major bowl games on tap New Year’s Day…

• Heart Of Dallas Bowl: the favorite is 2-1 ATS and the OVER is 2-1 in this bowl game since its inception.

• Capital One Bowl: the favorite is 4-1 ATS the last five years and 6-7 ATS the last twelve. All seven dog wins have been straight up.

• Gator Bowl: the favorite has cashed each of the last three years, snapping a previous four year run by the dogs.

• Orange Bowl: the favorite is 2-4 ATS the last six years, with the dog winning straight up four times.

• Outback Bowl: of the 8 ATS dog wins six have been in straight up fashion.

• Rose Bowl: PAC 10/12 teams are 7-1 SUATS the last eight games versus Big 10 opponents.

Conference Call: The Good, The Bad And The Ugly

Good numbers: ACC bowl teams as dogs off a SU loss (Clemson) are 18-5-1 ATS, with Boston College and Duke results from 12/31 pending… Big 10 bowl teams off a double-digit SU win (Iowa and Michigan State) are 10-3 ATS… Big 12 bowl favorites of 8 or more points (Baylor) are 5-1 ATS… PAC 12 bowl teams off back-to-back SU wins (Stanford) are 7-1 ATS.

Bad Numbers: SEC bowl favorites of 8 or more points who allowed 35 or more points in their last game (Georgia) are 1-5 ATS.

Ugly numbers… Big 10 bowl teams who allowed 35 or more points in their last games (Nebraska) are 2-11 ATS.

Coach Me Up

• Iowa’s Kirk Ferentz is 6-2 ATS as a bowl dog, and 3-1 SUATS vs. SEC opponents.

• LSU’s Les Miles is 4-1 SUATS In bowl games vs. .818 or less opponents.

• Michigan State’s Mark Dantonio is 12-3 ATS away vs. an opponent off a SUATS win.

• South Carolina coach Steve Spurrier is 6-0 ATS vs. non-conference opponents off a SU favorite loss.

• Wisconsin’s Gary Andersen is 18-3-1 ATS vs. non-conference opponents.

My Favorite Martian

Favorites on New Years Day bowl games have been out of this world in games dating back to 1990.

That’s confirmed by a 75-53 ATS overall mark.

The best role for New Year's Day chalk is when they take on opponents with soft defenses, those allowing 20 or more PPG on the season, where they zoom to 32-14 ATS.

Georgia and North Texas look to turn extraterrestrial this New Year’s Day.

New Resolution

In keeping with the tradition of making, then breaking, new promises for the New Year, let’s see whether UNLV maintains status quo today.

The Rebels are 10-15 SU and 16-6 ATS at home under head coach Bobby Hauck. They are 3-22 SU and 7-17 ATS away from Vegas.

Stat Of The Day

Central Florida is 0-4 SU but 4-0 ATS versus Big 12 opponents in its school history.

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River City Sharps
CFB
Michigan St vs Stanford
Michigan State comes off their Big 10 Championship to visit Stanford in the 100th Rose Bowl,
which is the first trip there for the Spartans in 26 years. This is going to be a unique matchup as
Stanford will try and mix it up offensively against one of the very best defensive units in the
country. The Spartans will be without senior LB Max Bullough, who was suspended Wednesday for
violating team rules. Bullough was third-team All-America and first-team All-Big Ten. Their defense
is ranked number one in the nation at 248.2 yards allowed per game, including an FBS-low 80.8 on
the ground. Stanford won their first Rose Bowl in 40 years when they beat Wisconsin 20-14 last
year and now they are back for a repeat performance. Michigan State is 7-0 ATS in road games
when playing against a team with a winning record over the last 2 seasons. We think this will be a
very tight affair come late in the fourth quarter and we like the Spartans catching the points. The
Sharps say...
3 UNITS - MICHIGAN STATE (+7)

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NCAA Basketball Picks

Nevada at San Jose State

The Wolf Pack travel to San Jose State tonight to face a Spartans team that is coming off an 87-59 win over Pacifica College and is 1-5 ATS in its last 6 games following a victory of more than 20 points in the previous game. Nevada is the pick (-1 1/2) according to Dunkel, which has the Wolf Pack favored by 4 1/2. Dunkel Pick: Nevada (-1 1/2). Here are all of today's games.

WEDNESDAY, JANUARY 1 Time Posted: 8:00 a.m. EST

Game 711-712: Loyola-Chicago at Indiana State (3:00 p.m. EST) Dunkel Ratings: Loyola-Chicago 46.580; Indiana State 63.606 Dunkel Line: Indiana State by 17 Vegas Line: Indiana State by 14 1/2 Dunkel Pick: Indiana State (-14 1/2)

Game 713-714: UNLV at Fresno State (3:00 p.m. EST) Dunkel Ratings: UNLV 62.118; Fresno State 61.522 Dunkel Line: UNLV by 1 Vegas Line: UNLV by 4 1/2 Dunkel Pick: Fresno State (+4 1/2)

Game 715-716: Boston College at Harvard (4:00 p.m. EST) Dunkel Ratings: Boston College 55.249; Harvard 63.254 Dunkel Line: Harvard by 8 Vegas Line: Harvard by 11 Dunkel Pick: Boston College (+11)

Game 717-718: SMU at Cincinnati (6:00 p.m. EST) Dunkel Ratings: SMU 61.616; Cincinnati 73.432 Dunkel Line: Cincinnati by 12 Vegas Line: Cincinnati by 6 Dunkel Pick: Cincinnati (-6)

Game 719-720: Old Dominion at William & Mary (7:00 p.m. EST) Dunkel Ratings: Old Dominion 49.203; William & Mary 57.805 Dunkel Line: William & Mary by 8 1/2 Vegas Line: William & Mary by 3 1/2 Dunkel Pick: William & Mary (-3 1/2)

Game 721-722: Utah State at Air Force (8:00 p.m. EST) Dunkel Ratings: Utah State 58.982; Air Force 54.149 Dunkel Line: Utah State by 5 Vegas Line: Utah State by 9 Dunkel Pick: Air Force (+9)

Game 723-724: Evansville at Drake (8:00 p.m. EST) Dunkel Ratings: Evansville 56.040; Drake 61.159 Dunkel Line: Drake by 5 Vegas Line: Drake by 7 1/2 Dunkel Pick: Evansville (+7 1/2)

Game 725-726: Bradley at Northern Iowa (8:00 p.m. EST) Dunkel Ratings: Bradley 48.395; Northern Iowa 63.359 Dunkel Line: Northern Iowa by 15 Vegas Line: Northern Iowa by 11 1/2 Dunkel Pick: Northern Iowa (-11 1/2)

Game 727-728: Temple at Rutgers (8:00 p.m. EST) Dunkel Ratings: Temple 64.832; Rutgers 54.656 Dunkel Line: Temple by 10 Vegas Line: Temple by 1 1/2 Dunkel Pick: Temple (-1 1/2)

Game 729-730: San Diego State at Colorado State (9:00 p.m. EST) Dunkel Ratings: San Diego State 66.712; Colorado State 66.536 Dunkel Line: Even Vegas Line: San Diego State by 4 1/2 Dunkel Pick: Colorado State (+4 1/2)

Game 731-732: Nevada at San Jose State (10:00 p.m. EST) Dunkel Ratings: Nevada 54.888; San Jose State 50.398 Dunkel Line: Nevada by 4 1/2 Vegas Line: Nevada by 1 1/2 Dunkel Pick: Nevada (-1 1/2)

Game 733-734: College of Charleston at Davidson (2:00 p.m. EST) Dunkel Ratings: College of Charleston 48.729; Davidson 58.788 Dunkel Line: Davidson by 10 Vegas Line: Davidson by 5 1/2 Dunkel Pick: Davidson (-5 1/2)

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Aaron's Analysis

256 Stanford Cardinal minus 6 over Michigan State Spartans

The #5 Stanford Cardinal (11-2) take on the #4 Michigan State Spartans (12-1) in the Rose Bowl on New Year's Day in Pasadena. The Cardinal are making their fourth straight BCS bowl appearance. They are coming off of a dominating 38-14 victory over conference powerhouse Arizona State in the Pac 12 Championship Game, outgaining them in the process 517-311. As for the Spartans, they've won nine straight games, capped off by a 34-24 upset victory over Ohio State in the Big 10 Championship Game. Both of these teams are similar, as both rely upon a solid ground game and dominating defense. Michigan State is ranked #4 in the nation in points allowed per game (12.7), while Stanford ranks #10 (18.6). The Cardinal have been running the ball well all season, ranking #23 in the nation with an average of 210.9 yards per game. Over the last five games, however, they've been doing even better, as that average jumps to 234.2. Over the last seven games, Cardinal back Tyler Gaffney has rushed for an average of 149.7 yards per game. On the season, Gaffney has compiled 1,618 rushing yards and an amazing 20 TDs to go along with another 88 yards and 1 TD receiving. He should be able to find success even versus the likes of the Michigan State rush defense. Despite allowing just 80.8 yards per game on the ground (#1), the Spartan rush defense has shown vulnerability in recent weeks. Over their last four games, they've given up an average of 164.8 yards per game, most recently allowing the Ohio State Buckeyes to rush for 273 yards. In addition to Gaffney, Anthony Wilkerson is also a competent back, as he has added 391 yards from scrimmage and 2 TDs this season. The Spartan defense will have to do without senior linebacker Max Bullough in this one due to suspension, which is a major loss. As for the Cardinal passing game, there is no better game manager out there than QB Keith Hogan. With that being said, it's worth mentioning that Hogan has only had to put up the ball in the air an average of 22.5 times per game. Over the past three games, Hogan has led the Cardinal to a decent 284 passing yards per game. On the season Hogan has compiled 2,487 yards passing with an accurate 61.4% completions, to go along with a TD to INT ratio of 20 to 9 and a quarterback rating of 154.1. His mobility poses a threat to defenses, as he has rushed for 314 yards and 2 TDs. Although the Spartans have a decent pass defense, Hogan should be able to put forth a solid effort here. It can be interpreted that the Spartan pass defense appears solid statistically because Big 10 teams are known to be rush first, pass second teams. Prior to playing teams rather inept at passing at the end of season such as Ohio State and Minnesota, the Spartans allowed an average of 221.7 yards passing in a three game cluster to the likes of Michigan, Nebraska and Northwestern. Although Hogan may not throw the ball as much as other Pac 12 quarterbacks, he is able to successfully sneak in a pass or two here and there. When he does, his favorite target is receiver Ty Montgomery. Montgomery has caught 58 passes for 937 yards and 10 TDs, to go along with another 159 yards and 2 TDs rushing. In addition, Devon Cajuste (27 catches for 591 yards and 5 TDs) and Michael Rector (12 catches for 387 yards and 3 TDs) are also highly capable. The Spartan offense is rather inept, ranking #9 in the Big 10 with an average of 384.6 total yards per game. With QB Connor Cook, the Spartans rank just #89 in the nation passing the ball with an average of 202.5 yards per game. Although it's fair to say that number closely resembles the 202.2 for Stanford, the Cardinal have nearly a thirty yard edge over the Spartans when it comes to rushing yards per game, at 210.9-182.2. The Cardinal defense has been very stingy versus the rush lately, allowing an average of just 64.4 yards per game over their last seven contests, while allowing a solid 91.2 for the season. Spartan 1,000 yard rusher Jeremy Langford should struggle versus the dominating defense of the Cardinal. An intangible to note is the apparent disparity between the Pac 12 and Big 10 conferences, as since 2001 the Pac 12 has a 10-1 record over the Big 10 in the Rose Bowl. Gaffney should be able to run the ball effectively here, and combined with the passing efforts of Hogan and Montgomery the Cardinal should be able to come away with a nice victory in this one.

CARDINAL 28-14 (3 Units)

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NCAAF

Bowl Season

Gator Bowl Jacksonville, 1/1
Georgia (-8.5) whacked Nebraska 45-31 in LY’s Capital One Bowl, passing for 427 yards (23.7 yards/completion) but 4-year starting QB Murray (knee) is out, replaced by highly thought of junior Mason, who brought Georgia back from 20 down to beat Ga Tech in rivalry game. Richt is 8-4 in bowl games (3-2 vs spread in last five); Nebraska lost its last three bowls by average score of 31-18, including 19-7 loss as 14-point favorite to Washington in ’10 Holiday Bowl. Underdogs covered five of last seven Gator Bowls; winning side scored 30+ points in eight of last ten here. Unsure how Georgia players feel about playing here, since they play Florida here in neutral field rivalry game every year; you’d think they’d be excited to get some redemption after injury-riddled season. If Nebraska wins they’ll have lost four games all six seasons Pelini has been their coach. Cornhuskers covered both times they were an underdog this year.

Heart of Dallas Bowl, Cotton Bowl Stadium, 1/1
UNLV is in 4th bowl ever, first since 31-14 win over Arkansas in Vegas 13 years ago- they’re 3-0 all-time in bowls. North Texas is bowling for first time since ’04- they played in New Orleans Bowl as the Sun Belt champ four years in row, going 1-3. Mean Green won/covered six of last seven games overall; they’re 7-2 vs spread when favored this year, 5-3 in games with single digit spread. UNLV is 5-3 as an underdog, 5-2 in single digit spread games; Rebels’ WR Davis has 1,194 receiving yards, 14 TDs and is an NFL player waiting to be drafted. Mean Green won six of last seven games to get here; they beat C-USA champ Rice but lost at home to UTSA. North Texas is located within an hour of Dallas, should have large crowd edge; game is in old Cotton Bowl, where Cowboys played from 1960-70, so weather could be factor. McCarney was 2-3 in bowls while coaching Iowa State; Hauck coached in I-AA playoffs at Montana, but this is his first I-A bowl game. Favorites won first three Heart of Dallas Bowls (2-1 vs spread with totals of 83-44-72.

Capital One Bowl Tampa, 1/1
Wisconsin lost Rose Bowl last three years; they’re 4-7 in last 11 bowls under Alvarez/Bielema- this is first time they’ve been bowl favorite since at least 2002, odd streak. Badgers got upset by Penn State in season finale, while Carolina was beating Clemson for 5th year in row, chances are Wisky has chip on shoulder and will try to use power running game to negate Carolina’s edge in speed. Andersen was 1-1 in bowls at Utah State. Spurrier is 9-10 in bowl games, 3-4 with Gamecocks, but he won 30-13/33-28 in last two bowls, winning this bowl over Nebraska two years ago. This is first time Gamecocks travelled for game since October 26; they’re 3-1 in games decided by less than seven points, 1-1 as underdogs, 3-3 vs spread in games with single digit spread. Badgers are 0-3 in games decided by 7 or less points, 7-2 as favorites, 3-1 in games with single digit spread. Gamecocks’ star LB Clowney got another speeding ticket last week; he has underachieved this year, curious to see how he plays here, in his last college game.

Outback Bowl Tampa 1/1
Mettenberger’s ACL injury means LSU turns to more mobile but less-experienced Jennings at QB; he has thrown only 10 passes but one of them was dramatic game-winner vs Arkansas. Cameron has been an NFL coordinator, so Jennings will be as prepared as he can be here. LSU is 9-3, giving up 44-27-38 points in its losses, all on road to quality QBs (Murray-Wallace-McCarron)- they’re 5-0 vs spread this year in games with single digit pointspread. Iowa won its last three games after being just 5-4; they covered two of three as an underdog this year. Miles is 6-5 in bowls, 5-3 at LSU, but lost to Alabama/Clemson last two years. Ferentz is 6-4 in bowl games, even though he was favored only once; he is 3-1 vs SEC teams in bowls, beating LSU on last-second pass nine years ago. Hawkeyes are 2-0 in this bowl, beating Florida in ’03, South Carolina in ’08. SEC teams won this game three of last four years, with losing team scoring average of 29.3 ppg last four years.

Rose Bowl Pasadena 1/1
Michigan State sent star LB Bullough home, which can't be good; they're in Rose Bowl for first time in 26 years, after winning last two bowls by combined total of four points. Spartans are 3-0 as underdogs this season, haven't lost since 17-13 (+4.5) loss at Notre Dame in September. Pac-12 teams are 5-2 SU/ATS in bowls so far, favored in every game; Big Dozen teams are 0-2 in bowls this year, 1-9 in their last ten Rose Bowls, with Ohio State in '09 only winner. Stanford won Rose Bowl LY, just second win in its last five bowls; Cardinal won Pac-12 title, are 5-3 vs spread in games with single digit spread- Spartans are 8-0. Pac-12 teams are 5-1 in their last six Rose Bowls. Stanford coach Shaw has to constantly answer questions about going to NFL (his dad was NFL coordinator), doubt it is a distraction, but he was denying it again yesterday. Stanford has better QB; Pac-12 has usually been the better investment in this game.

Fiesta Bowl, Glendale Az 1/1
Central Florida won at Penn State, lost to South Carolina by FG, they're not intimidated by bigger name teams; O'Leary is 5-4 in bowls, 3-2 with UCF. Briles lost his first five bowl games but scored 67-49 points in last two, winning by 11-23 points. UCF is 3-0 as an underdog this year, with two SU wins; they were double digit FAVORITE in their last six games, probably feel disrespected here. Baylor scored 59+ points in six of its 12 games this year, covering eight of 10 as double digit favorite. All season, Bears played only two games decided by less than 20 points. Two QBs in this game combined for 52 TD passes, nine INTs, which hints at an over play here. AAC teams won two of first three bowls; Big X teams won two of first three. Through Tuesday's games, favorites were 14-8 vs spread in bowl games; over was 7-15-1. Game is in Cardinals' dome, so weather isn't a factor. Underdogs covered five of last seven in this bowl.

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Cappers Access

(CFB) Georgia -8.5
(CFB) LSU -7.5
(CFB) C. Florida +16.5

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From The Bowl Guide
STATFOX FORECASTER

ROSE BOWL:
MICHIGAN ST. (255) AT STANFORD (256)
Latest Line: Stanford -6.5; Total: 42.5

These teams have similar styles; elite defenses complemented by grind-it-out offenses. MSU led the nation in total defense (248.2 YPG) while Stanford was 14th (339.0). The Spartans have been excellent when getting points in recent years, going 9-2-1 ATS as an underdog over the past three seasons. They're also 14-5 SU and 15-3-1 ATS outside of East Lansing over the past three years, including 5-1 SU and 5-0-1 ATS this year. The Cardinal's blemishes were both as a road favorite, but they were impressive on the road in the Pac-12 title game, compiling 517 yards of offense in a 38-14 win at Arizona State.
FORECASTER: Stanford 22, Michigan St. 19

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From Platinum Plays. 500K Bowl Underdog Lock/Year
the Iowa Hawkeyes +7½ over
the LSU Tigers
Best Bets

the Georgia Bulldogs -9 over
the Nebraska Cornhuskers
the UNLV Running Rebels +6½ over
the North Rexas Mean Green Eagles
the Nebraska/Georgia Game OVER
the Total Of 59½ Points
the Wisconsin/South Carolina Game UNDER
the Total Of 51 Points
500K Fiesta Bowl Lock

Best Bets


the Michigan St Spartans +6½ over
the Stanford Cardinal
the Central Florida/Baylor Game OVER
the Total Of 70 Points
the Indiana Pacers -5½ over
the Toronto Raptors
the Bradley Braves +12½ over
the Northern Iowa Panthers


PREMIER PICKS
the Wisconsin Badgers -1½ over the South Carolina Gamecocks
the Michigan St/Stanford Game OVER the Total Of 42½ Points
Back After 11:00AM On Thursday

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Nelly's Football - Wednesday, Jan. 1

1* #250 North Texas -6.5 over UNLV 11:00 AM CT
2* #254 LSU -7 over Iowa 12:00 PM CT
2* #256 Stanford -6.5 over Michigan State 4:00 PM CT