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NCAA Football Game Picks
THURSDAY, JANUARY 2
Time Posted: 8:00 p.m. EST (12/16) Game 259-260: Oklahoma vs. Alabama (8:30 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Oklahoma 108.920; Alabama 112.060
Dunkel Line: Alabama by 3; 58
Vegas Line: Alabama by 15; 51 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Oklahoma (+15); Over -
Norm Hitzges
COLLEGE BOWLS
DOUBLE PLAYS:
Alabama -14 (Jan. 2)
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Northcoast
5* Alabama -15Comment
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Marc Lawrence 33-0 ATS Shocking Sugar Bowl Key Play! - Thursday
Play On: Alabama (Game 260)
We recommend a 3-unit play on Alabama.Comment
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Cappers Access
(CFB) Oklahoma -16.5Comment
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Sugar Bowl Preview
By Brian Edwards
Sugar Bowl
Matchup: Oklahoma Sooners (10-2) vs. Alabama Crimson Tide (11-1)
Venue: Superdome
Location: New Orleans, LA
Following a six-pack of college football bowl games on New Year’s Day, gamblers have only the Sugar Bowl to wager on Thursday. From New Orleans at the Superdome, Alabama and Oklahoma will collide in a showdown between storied programs.
As of early Wednesday afternoon, most betting shops had Alabama (11-1 straight up, against the spread) installed as a 17-point favorite with a total of 51.5. Gamblers can take the Sooners on the money line for a +550 return (risk $100 to win $550). For first-half wagers, ‘Bama is favored by nine with a total of 27.
Alabama’s quest for a third consecutive national title was derailed by Auburn in a crushing Iron Bowl defeat. If you’re reading this, you know how it happened and Chris Davis’s name won’t soon be forgotten.
The burning question for bettors is if Alabama’s team has put the gut-wrenching loss in the rearview mirror. In a similar situation in 2008 after losing to Florida in the SEC Championship Game, the Crimson Tide went to the Sugar Bowl and got thumped 31-17 by Utah as a nine-point ‘chalk.’
Oklahoma (10-2 SU, 7-5 ATS) has been an underdog three times this season, going 2-1 both SU and ATS. This will be the Sooners’ third double-digit ‘dog spot. They got smashed 41-12 at Baylor while catching 17 points but won 33-24 at Oklahoma St. as 10-point ‘dogs.
Bob Stoops’s team earned the BCS bowl invite thanks to the Bedlam win in Stillwater. Jalen Saunders was the catalyst against the Cowboys, scoring a pair of touchdowns. He got into the end zone on a 64-yard punt return in the first quarter and then scored the game-winning points on a seven-yard TD catch from Blake Bell with 19 ticks remaining.
OU is expected to use Bell and Trevor Knight at QB against the Tide. Both signal callers had their ups and downs during the regular season.
Bell got most of the playing time, completing 60.1 percent of his throws with a 12/5 touchdown-to-interception ratio. He had 255 rushing yards but averaged only 3.4 yards per carry.
Knight completed just 52.2 percent of his passes with a 5/4 TD-INT ratio. He was a more effective runner, producing 438 rushing yards, two TDs and a 7.1 YPC average.
Brennan Clay will get the bulk of the carries for the Sooners. He rushed for a team-high 913 yards and six TDs, averaging 5.8 YPC. Saunders is OU’s best playmaker, hauling in 56 receptions for 654 yards and six TDs. Saunders tallied 1,051 all-purpose yards.
OU’s defense gives up an average of 21.3 PPG and ranks 14th in the nation in total defense.
Senior QB A.J. McCarron will return to the venue where he enjoyed one of his finest performances as a sophomore. He was on the money from start to finish in the Big Easy two years ago in leading the Tide to a 21-0 win over LSU in the BCS Championship Game.
Regardless of what happens Thursday night, McCarron will go down as the greatest QB in Alabama football history. In his senior campaign, the Mobile native has completed 67.6 percent of his passes for 2,676 yards with a 26/5 TD-INT ratio.
McCarron spreads the sugar around to a talented array of wide receivers. Kevin Norwood and Amari Cooper are his favorite targets. Both wideouts brought down 36 catches apiece for more than 1,100 combined yards. Norwood and Cooper had seven and four TD grabs, respectively.
T.J. Yeldon rushed for a team-high 1,163 yards and 13 TDs, averaging 6.1 YPC. His back-up Kenyan Drake is equally as effective, with 694 rushing yards, eight TDs and a 7.5 YPC average.
Saban’s squad has been favored by double digits in 11 of its 12 games, compiling a 6-4-1 spread record. Alabama finished second in the country in scoring defense, allowing only 11.3 PPG.
The ‘over’ is 6-5-1 for ‘Bama, 5-2 in its last seven games. The Tide’s games averaged a combined score of 50.1 PPG.
The ‘over’ is 6-5-1 for OU, 4-1-1 in its last six games. The Sooners’ games have played to average combined score of 53.2 PPG.
These schools played a home-and-home series in 2002 and ’03. OU prevailed in both encounters but the Tide took the cash both times. We should note that Alabama was dealing with probation sanctions at the time.
Kickoff is scheduled for 8:30 p.m. Eastern on ESPN.Comment
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Allstate Sugar Bowl: What bettors need to know
Oklahoma Sooners vs. Alabama Crimson Tide (-15.5, 51.5)
ALLSTATE SUGAR BOWL STORYLINES:
1. Alabama saw its chances to play for a third consecutive national championship dashed on the final play of the regular season, so an obvious question is whether the third-ranked Crimson Tide will suffer a major letdown when they face No. 11 Oklahoma in the Allstate Sugar Bowl on Jan. 2 in New Orleans. A miraculous 109-yard kickoff return by bitter rival Auburn as time expired in the regular-season finale derailed Alabama's three-peat hopes and now the team must regroup for the matchup with the twice-beaten Sooners. It will be the five-year anniversary of The Crimson Tide's last visit to the Sugar Bowl, when they were waxed by Utah after their perfect season ended against Florida in the SEC Championship game.
2. Oklahoma is a decided underdog after losing to Texas and getting mauled by Baylor, but it finished the regular season on a high note, registering a last-minute victory at archrival Oklahoma State. One of the few programs in the country that can rival Alabama's storied history, the Sooners will be making their 15th consecutive bowl appearance under coach Bob Stoops. Oklahoma had a three-game bowl winning streak snapped last season with a lopsided defeat against Johnny Manziel and Texas A&M - a former Big 12 rival that now plays with Alabama in the SEC, which has produced the past seven BCS national champions.
3. Despite the string of success under Stoops that includes a dozen 10-win seasons since 2000, Alabama's Nick Saban is widely regarded as the best coach in college football with four national championships under his belt. One of them came at the expense of Stoops and Oklahoma, when Saban guided Louisiana State to a 21-14 victory over the Sooners in the Sugar Bowl following the 2003 season. "We respect them, but we're not scared to play them," Oklahoma All-American center Gabe Ikard said of the Crimson Tide. "They're extremely talented and we realize that. You have got to be confident going into a football game or else you're going to get blown out."
TV: 8:30 p.m. ET, ESPN.
LINE: Alabama opened as 15-point faves and now sit at -15.5. The total has stayed put at 51.5.
WEATHER: N/A.
ABOUT OKLAHOMA (10-2, 7-5 ATS): Stoops still must decide on a starting quarterback versus Alabama - the options being senior Blake Bell and redshirt freshman Trevor Knight. The Tebow-esque Bell, nicknamed the Belldozer for his 6-6, 260-pound frame, started eight games and was superb in rallying the Sooners past Oklahoma State when Knight went down with a shoulder injury. Knight, however, is a dual threat and it's worth noting that Alabama's defense surrendered its two highest point totals against similar-style QBs for Texas A&M and Auburn. Brennan Clay rushed for 913 yards, including 200 against Kansas State in the next-to-last game, to power a ground game that ranked among the top 20 nationally while Jalen Saunders and Sterling Shepard are the top receiving targets.
ABOUT ALABAMA (11-1, 6-5-1 ATS): The Crimson Tide have no such question marks under center with senior A.J. McCarron, the Maxwell Award winner and runner-up in the Heisman Trophy balloting. McCarron threw for 26 touchdowns against only five interceptions this season and posted even better numbers as a junior with 30 TD passes and three picks, capped by a brilliant performance in the national championship game that was somewhat overshadowed by ABC's Brent Musberger gushing over McCarron's girlfriend, Katherine Webb. T.J. Yeldon rushed for 1,163 yards and 13 scores while Amari Cooper leads a deep and balanced receiving corps. Per usual, Alabama features a stellar defense that ranked No. 2 nationally, allowing 11.7 points per game and holding nine of 12 opponents to 10 points or fewer.
TRENDS:
* Oklahoma is 2-5 ATS in its last seven bowl games.
* Alabama is 4-0 ATS in its last four bowl games.
* Under is 4-0 in Oklahoma's last four versus the SEC.
* Over is 6-1 in Alabama's last seven bowl games.Comment
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Warriors at Heat: What bettors need to know
Golden State Warriors at Miami Heat (-4, 204.5)
The Golden State Warriors will put their six-game winning streak on the line with their toughest test of a lengthy road trip at the Miami Heat on Thursday. The Warriors took the first two of a seven-game trip and are enjoying their longest winning streak in six years while thriving at the defensive end. Golden State will need to be at its best at that end against the Heat, who have won eight of nine and are returning home after a four-game trip.
The Warriors do not get a lot of credit for their defense but are one of the best in the league at limiting opponents. “We’ve had moments where we weren’t as effective as we’d like to be,” coach Mark Jackson said. “But, when you look at the numbers, holding a team under 40 (percent shooting), that’s the 14th time all year. Only Indiana has done it 15 times. So, we’ve got to get some recognition as far as the way that these guys defend on a high level.” Miami will test that defense with a healthy LeBron James, who returned from a one-game absence due to a groin injury and put up 26 points and 10 assists in 40 minutes at Denver on Monday.
TV: 7:30 p.m. ET, CSN Bay Area (Golden State), Sun Sports (Miami)
LINE: The Heat opened as 4-point faves. The total opened at 204.5.
COVERS POWER RANKINGS: Golden State (-9.5) - Miami (-14.5) + home court (-3) = Miami -8
ABOUT THE WARRIORS (20-13, 15-16-2 ATS): Golden State has gotten some strong performances from Stephen Curry during its winning streak and leaned on the interior and the bench in a 94-81 victory in Orlando on Tuesday. Andrew Bogut and David Lee provide a matchup issue for the Heat, and the Warriors figure to use their advantage on the inside. “We need to bring the same intensity (against Miami),” Curry said. “We feel like if we play the way we are supposed to play, we can beat everybody in this league. That is the mindset that we have and it is nice to have everybody healthy and ready to go to finish out this road trip and keep the momentum that we have.”
ABOUT THE HEAT (24-7, 14-17 ATS): James returned but Dwyane Wade went down with back spasms against the Nuggets and is considered day-to-day. Miami has been cautious with Wade all season and the team is used to playing without the All-Star, especially if Chris Bosh can maintain his current level of play. The veteran forward was named the Eastern Conference Player of the Week on Monday after putting up 22.3 points and eight rebounds in four games, and followed it up with 17 points on 8-of-12 shooting in Monday’s 97-94 triumph that closed out a 3-1 trip.
TRENDS:
* Warriors are 4-0-1 ATS in the last five meetings in Miami.
* Over is 7-3 in the last 10 meetings in Miami.
* Underdog is 6-2-1 ATS in the last nine meetings.
* Road team is 12-3-2 ATS in the last 17 meetings.
BUZZER BEATERS:
1. The Warriors won their lone trip to the Heat last season 97-95 behind 27 points from Klay Thompson.
2. Miami G Norris Cole (face) took a hard fall and left Monday’s game but is expected to play Thursday.
3. Lee has gone three straight without a double-double after posting 10 in a row.Comment
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St. Mary's at Gonzaga: What bettors need to know
St. Mary's Gaels at Gonzaga Bulldogs (OFF)
Injuries and a busy schedule haven't slowed No. 21 Gonzaga, which hosts Saint Mary's on Thursday for an early West Coast Conference showdown. Guard Gary Bell Jr. (hand) is out for the Bulldogs, who are playing their third game in six days, while guard Kevin Pangos (turf toe) is playing injured and center Sam Dower Jr. (back) is questionable. Drew Barham and transfers Gerard Coleman and Angel Nunez have helped fill those gaps.
"As a player you wait and wait for your chance and when you get a chance you have to make the most of it," Gonzaga coach Mark Few told The Spokane Spokesman-Review after Monday's win against San Francisco. "By and large, everybody that got in did that." The Gaels will be without coach Randy Bennett, who is serving the second game of a five-game suspension for NCAA rules violations. Saint Mary's is 2-3 away from home, snapping a three-game skid with a win over Pacific in its WCC opener Monday.
TV: 9 p.m. ET, ESPN 2.
LINE: The line and total are currently off the board.
ABOUT SAINT MARY'S (10-3, 7-4 ATS): Forward Brad Waldow leads the Gaels with 16.8 points and seven rebounds and is second in the league with a 64.2 shooting clip. Stephen Holt (13.2), James Walker III (12.3) and Beau Levesque (11.8) also average double figures for the balanced Gaels, who started the week ranked 12th nationally in 3-point shooting percentage (43.3). The Gaels, in the middle of a three-game road swing to open conference play, are second in the WCC in scoring defense (66.3 points) and second in scoring margin (plus-10.9).
ABOUT GONZAGA (12-2, 5-6-1 ATS): Pangos leads the Bulldogs with 17.6 points and Dower (13.8) and Bell (12.7) are team's next two leading scorers. Coleman, who transferred from Providence, is averaging 8.1 points off the bench and Nunez, who became eligible after the first semester after transferring from Louisville, has scored 14 total points in his first two games. 7-1 center Przemek Karnowski adds 9.9 points and a team-high eight rebounds and can be a defensive difference in the middle.
TRENDS:
* Under is 7-1 in the last eight meetings in Gonzaga.
* St. Mary's is 4-1 ATS in its last five games following an ATS win.
* Gonzaga is 2-10-2 ATS in its last 14 games following an ATS win.
* Over is 6-1 in St. Mary's last seven games overall.
TIP-INS:
1. Saint Mary's and Gonzaga join Duke and Kansas as the only Division I program with 25 or more wins in each of the past five seasons.
2. The Gaels and Bulldogs have meet in each of the past five WCC Tournament championships games, with Gonzaga winning three times. Gonzaga has won 8 of the 10 regular-season meetings during that span.
3. Gonzaga started the week ranked third nationally at 51.3 percent shooting and 18th at 84.5 points.Comment
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Exposing the Top 25: Where the polls went wrong
By JESSE SCHULE
Each week throughout the college basketball season, Covers Expert Jesse Schule will dissect the new Top 25 rankings, looking for betting value. He'll showcase the most overrated team, along with the most underrated ranked team, and an unranked squad that he feels should be in the Top 25.
Most Underrated Top 25 Team - Iowa State Cyclones (11- 0 SU, 5-2 ATS)
There are seven teams in the Top 25 that remain undefeated, and of those Iowa State is the lowest ranked. The Cyclones are no joke though, ranking 6th in the nation in scoring, averaging 87.2 points per game. You can't say they have had an easy schedule, with wins over Michigan, Iowa and BYU.
The Cyclones are dominating the opposition on the glass, and they out-rebounded Boise State 36-31 in their last game. Iowa State ranks 11th in the nation with 42.8 rebounds per game.
Most Overrated Top 25 Team - North Carolina Tar Heels (8-3 SU, 6-5 ATS)
There are just three teams with three losses in the Top 25, so it would seem only natural that one of those teams would be the most overrated. If that's the case, we will have to look at the Tar Heels, who have not only lost three games, but they've lost all three of those to unranked teams.
First they were upset by Belmont, losing 83-80 at Chapel Hill. Then they lost on the road to the UAB Blazers, and then they suffered another home defeat by a score of 83-80 to the Texas Longhorns.
Unranked Team That Should Be Ranked - Creighton Blue Jays (10-2 SU, 7-3 ATS)
The Blue Jays senior forward Doug McDermott is the second highest scorer in the nation, averaging 24.8 points per game. Creighton is still undefeated at home, with a record of 7-0. They lost a pair of neutral site games to George Washington and San Diego State.
There are no shortage of tough games on the schedule for the Blue Jays as they begin conference play, but this team should be able to compete with the best in the Big East.Comment
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No. 3 Alabama favored big over No. 11 Oklahoma Thursday
by Mark Kern
Sugar Bowl
Superdome - New Orleans, LA
Kickoff: Thursday, 8:30 p.m. ET
Line: Alabama -15, Total: 51.5
No. 11 Oklahoma earned a trip to the Sugar Bowl after defeating in-state rival Oklahoma State off in the final week, but will be facing an angry No. 3 Alabama Crimson team in Thursday's matchup.
These are two of the most historic teams in college football history with crazy fan bases, so expect an incredible atmosphere. However, these two teams are coming into the game on complete opposite ends of the spectrum. For the Sooners, they appeared to be on their way to potentially the Buffalo Wild Wings Bowl before defeating Oklahoma State. In that game, quarterback Blake Bell came in for the injured Trevor Knight and led the team on an impressive final drive to help secure the victory for Oklahoma (7-5 ATS). While the Sooners are happy to be in this game, the same cannot be said for the Crimson Tide. They are coming off one of the craziest losses in recent history when Auburn scored a game-winning touchdown on a 100-yard field goal return. Senior QB AJ McCarron will look to end one of the greatest college careers for a quarterback (36-3 career record, two national titles) on a positive note. The last time Alabama (7-5 ATS) was in the Sugar Bowl after being eliminated from the national title race in the 2008 season, the Crimson Tide were drilled 31-17 by Utah. For Alabama to avoid that same kind of result, the team must come out prepared and ready to match Oklahoma’s excitement and energy.
The Sooners' rushing attack is one of the best in the country, ranking 18th among FBS schools with 235.8 rushing YPG. Senior RB Brennan Clay (913 rushing yards, 5.8 YPC, 6 TD) is the leader of the offense, and has proven that he is capable of taking a game over by himself. In a 41-31 victory over Kansas State on Nov. 23, he rushed for 200 yards (6.5 YPC) and two touchdowns, but was held to 70 yards (2.9 YPC) on 24 carries in the season finale. While the passing attack isn’t the most prolific in the country (186.7 YPG, 99th in FBS), junior QB Blake Bell (1,648 pass yards, 7.1 YPA, 12 TD, 5 INT) has played well at times, and figures to get the starting nod on Thursday ahead of QBs Trevor Knight (471 pass yards, 5.2 YPA, 5 TD, 4 INT) and Kendal Thompson (64 pass yards, 4.9 YPA, 1 TD, 1 INT). Whoever is under center does have wide receivers that are capable of making big plays though. Senior WR Jalen Saunders (56 catches, 654 yards, 6 TD) and sophomore WR Sterling Shepard (44 catches, 540 yards, 6 TD) are both able to make big plays with the ball in their hands. In the win over Oklahoma State, Shepard had 112 yards on seven receptions, while Saunders caught the game-winning touchdown pass with less than a minute left in the game. The Sooners defense has once again been solid this season, allowing only 21.3 PPG (23rd in FBS). They give up 138 rushing YPG on 4.1 YPC, but hold opposing passers to a mere 198 YPG (6.3 YPA) on 54% completions. The secondary of the Sooners is one of the very best in the country, led by junior DB Julian Wilson (three interceptions) and senior CB Aaron Colvin (49 tackles and one interception). This duo has the ability to shut down the opposing receivers, and that will be key against Alabama QB AJ McCarron and his potent passing attack.
McCarron (2,676 passing yards, 8.8 YPA, 26 TD, 5 INT) deservedly gets a lot of the credit for his team's offensive success, but there are a lot of weapons on that side of the ball as well. His favorite receiver this season has been sophomore WR Amari Cooper (36 catches, 615 yards and 4 TD), who is one of the most electric receivers in all of the country. Against Auburn in the season finale, Cooper had six catches for 178 yards, including a 99-yard touchdown reception that gave the Crimson Tide a lead. While the passing game has been great this season, the focal point of the offense is sophomore RB T.J. Yeldon (1,163 rush yards, 13 TD). Yeldon is just another in the line of superstar running backs for the Crimson Tide, as he is a perfect combination of size (6-foot-2, 218 pounds) and speed (6.1 YPC) at the running back position. He has rushed for more than 130 yards in each of his past three games, totaling 434 yards (5.8 YPC) and 3 TD during this stretch. Alabama ranks second in the nation in scoring defense (11.3 PPG allowed), but in that loss to Auburn, the team surrendered 296 rushing yards on 52 carries (5.7 YPC). For the season, the Tide hold opponents to 108 rushing YPG on 3.4 YPC, and limit opposing passers to 166 YPG (6.4 YPA) on 53% completions. Much of that is due to sophomore DB Landon Collins (58 tackles, 6 PD), who makes a lot of big plays in the secondary like his 89-yard interception return for a touchdown against Tennessee on Oct. 26. However, his biggest role against the Sooners may be trying and slow down the run. The biggest key in this game is whether or not Alabama is hungry enough to play with maximum effort following a demoralizing defeat to Auburn.Comment
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Prediction Machine
Against the Spread Picks
260 ALA vs OKLA -15 15.1 50.1%
Straight-Up Picks
260 ALA vs OKLA 36.1 21.0 73.2%
Over/Under Picks
260 OKLA vs. ALA 51 57.0 Over 58.7% $66Comment
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Dave Cokin
Bowl Game
260 Alabama -15Comment
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WINNING POINTS
COLLEGE BASKETBALL
Tulane* over Hofstra by 9
Traveling from Long Island to New Orleans with a lousy team currently flounderingwith games of 50-ish scoring to play against an opponent that enjoyed a 20-0 run ina lopsided win against you on a semi-neutral floor last season (Madison SquareGarden) is a great thing to do…if you want to lose again.
TULANE, 67-56.
Michigan over Minnesota* by 4
The perimeter defense of Big Ten rookie head coach Little Pitino will be stretched tothe max against the deep range of John Beilein’s three-ballers. Minnesota’s paltry 10.7assists per game – not impressive. But Michigan forward Mitch McGarry is suddenlyinjured and out for the season.
MICHIGAN, 69-65.
Wisconsin over Northwestern* by 14
Another Big Ten rookie head coach – Northwestern’s Coach K Klone Chris Collins –gets a visit from a wily old veteran with the stronger program, and a group hitting40% on its three-point attempts, who rarely turn it over.
WISCONSIN, 69-55.
Akron* over Marshall by 1
Off awful Hawaii efforts and a hungover loss at South Carolina, Akron is posing forthe dictionary photo next to the phrase, “low energy.”
AKRON, 67-66.
***BEST BET
Wright State* over Oakland by 15
Style contrast. Wright wants to run clock. Oakland – a newcomer to Wright’s HorizonLeague Conference, wants to run. Good luck, visiting head coach who put togetherthe ridiculously hard non-conference schedule and who lost home to EasternMichigan after it!
WRIGHT STATE, 77-62.
Brown* over Rhode Island by 6
Regional rivalry sees Rhody in a bad way, without much frontcourt presence. Brown,at 41 rebounds per game, must be looking forward to this very much, but they maybe favored.
BROWN, 65-59.
Georgia State* over Troy by 15
GSU has upgraded the roster since a 1-point loss at Troy last season, when it was anon-conference road game for GSU. Now, it’s a conference (Sun Belt) home game –muy importante!
GEORGIA STATE, 78-63.
George Mason* over Penn by 14
Wisconsin-GB* over Cleveland State by 7
Wisconsin-Milwaukee* over Youngstown State by 6
Valparaiso* over Illinois-Chicago by 18
South Alabama* over Western Kentucky by 5
Arizona State* over Washington by 10
Will Smokin’ Herb’s home side sucker us in here with a couple of 7-foot stiffs to helpcontrol the pace? Not yet. At least the Ridiculous Romar Roundballers can score. Theycan’t stop anyone, though.
ARIZONA STATE, 83-73.
***BEST BET
Oregon over Utah* by 17
The Ducks of Oregon handled a long trip to Korea in style against Georgetown, aperennial NCAA Tournament squad. What’s a trip to Utah, by comparison, whenUtah is chopped liver by comparison to G-Town? Oregon has had a couple of weeksto get suspended guard Artis and forward Carter back in the groove. Oregon lost inthis building last season, during a “tank trip” in March after they’d already won 23games and were prepping for the Pac 12 Tournament, which they won (beating Utahby 21 points en route to it).
OREGON, 84-67.
Missouri State* over Illinois State by 5
Illinois State hits just 40.8% from the field. Missouri State gets to the free-throw linea lot and they have the potential to rain 3s against so-so defense.
MISSOURI STATE,69-64.
Wichita State over Southern Illinois* by 15
Salukis head coach Barry Hinson seems like a beleaguered fellow not long for the job.His team makes only 3.8 three-pointers per game, fifth fewest in the nation. The vis-itor, in case you need reminding, played in the Final Four last year.
WICHITA STATE, 68-53.
**PREFERRED
Arkansas-LR over Texas State* by 9
It’s the easiest road game that Little Rock will have played to date this season after tripsto valid NCAA Tournament sides in November and December. For the football team’ssake, Texas State has been jerked around from the WAC and now to the Sun Belt.They didn’t do much in the WAC last year, and this year’s team is scoring 7 fewerpoints per game.
ARKANSAS-LITTLE ROCK, 72-63.
Texas-Arlington* over Arkansas State by 7
Visiting head coach John Brady will have to wake up from a bench nap at some pointand try to figure out how to stop UT-A’s 22.3 ppg guard Reger Dowell. Teaming with19 ppg fellow senior Brandon Edwards, a forward, that’s a pretty good 1-2 punch fora home side averaging a nice 82 ppg.
TEXAS-ARLINGTON, 78-71.
Gonzaga* over St. Mary’s by 9
Maybe it was the water in Hawaii, but the Gaels of St. Mary’s woefully underper-formed expectations when swept in the Diamond Head Tournament. A 6’9”, 260 player who doesn’t shoot 3-pointers is their leading scorer, a departure from recent sea-sons that familiar conference foes could seize upon and continue the losing. But Gonzaga would like to have recently injured Sam Dower back in the lineup for theirbest chance to exploit that.
GONZAGA, 72-63.
Stanford* over California by 8
Colorado* over Oregon State by 11
Santa Clara* over Pepperdine by 8
***BEST BET
Arizona* over Washington State by 30
It’s a big number, for sure, but it could be bigger, later, so may as well take a shotagainst Washington State on the road now. They are trying to play a more aggressive,pressing game this season but average only 69 ppg. Arizona – one of the most quali-ty-balanced teams in the nation and turning it over only 11.7 times per game – willhave to be thinking, ‘You’ve got to be kidding.’
ARIZONA, 81-51.
Portland* over Pacific by 8
Pacific is the stranger in a strange land in their first season as a West Coast Conferencemember.
PORTLAND, 72-64.
San Francisco* over Loyola Marymount by 3
The host USF Dons are on everyone’s list as “WCC team on the decline.” LMU’shome ‘upset’ of BYU was interesting. But freshmen are contributing heavily for them. Can they do it on the conference road?
SAN FRANCISCO, 77-74Comment
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