1-4-14

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Today's NFL Picks

New Orleans at Philadelphia

The Eagles host the Wild Card round against a New Orleans team that is 0-6 ATS in its last 6 road games. Philadelphia is the pick (-2 1/2) according to Dunkel, which has the Eagles favored by 5 1/2. Dunkel Pick: Philadelphia (-2 1/2). Here are all of this week's picks.

SATURDAY, JANUARY 4 Time Posted: 9:00 p.m. EST (1/1)

Game 101-102: Kansas City at Indianapolis (4:30 p.m. EST) Dunkel Ratings: Kansas City 132.537; Indianapolis 140.116 Dunkel Line: Indianapolis by 7 1/2; 42 Vegas Line: Indianapolis by 2 1/2; 46 1/2 Dunkel Pick: Indianapolis (-2 1/2); Under

Game 103-104: New Orleans at Philadelphia (8:10 p.m. EST) Dunkel Ratings: New Orleans 134.432; Philadelphia 140.086 Dunkel Line: Philadelphia by 5 1/2; 57 Vegas Line: Philadelphia by 2 1/2; 53 1/2 Dunkel Pick: Philadelphia (-2 1/2); Over

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NCAA Football Game Picks

SATURDAY, JANUARY 4 Time Posted: 8:00 p.m. EST (12/16)

Game 265-266: Vanderbilt vs. Houston (1:00 p.m. EST) Dunkel Ratings: Vanderbilt 92.717; Houston 94.638 Dunkel Line: Houston by 2; 59 Vegas Line: Vanderbilt by 3; 54 Dunkel Pick: Houston (+3); Over

OTHER MAJOR GAMES: Time Posted: 8:00 p.m. EST (12/25)

Game 109-110: Towson vs. North Dakota State (2:00 p.m. EST) Dunkel Ratings: Towson 74.985; North Dakota State 101.258 Dunkel Line: North Dakota State by 26 1/2 Vegas Line: North Dakota State by 13 1/2 Dunkel Pick: North Dakota State (-13 1/2)

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NFL Wildcard trends: The Good, the Bad and the Ugly
By MARC LAWRENCE

Don’t look now but the 2013 NFL season is in the rear view mirror and with it the start of the Wild Card playoff games starting this Saturday. Let’s take a look at some of the best, and worst, trends surrounding this weekend’s card.

The Good, the Bad and the Ugly

Here’s a brief capsule of the teams and noteworthy trends:

Kansas City at Indianapolis (-2.5, 46.5)
Good: Chiefs coach Andy Reid 3-0 ATS away non-division playoff dog
Bad: Reid 1-4 SU and 0-5 ATS last five games vs. the Colts
Ugly: Colts 0-3 SU and ATS last three playoff games

New Orleans at Philadelphia (-2.5, 53)
Good: Saints QB Drew Brees is 4-2 SU and ATS career vs. Philadelphia
Bad: Saints 3-5 SU and 1-7 ATS away this season, averaged 17.8 PPG
Ugly: Saints 0-5 SU and ATS all-time away in NFL playoffs

San Diego at Cincinnati (-7, 47)
Good: Bengals 4-0 SU and ATS off a win in this series
Bad: Chargers 2-9 ATS vs. AFC North last five years
Ugly: Bengals 0-5 SU and ATS last five playoff games

San Francisco at Green Bay (48, +2.5)
Good: Jim Harbaugh is 3-0 SU and ATS vs. Green Bay
Bad: Mike McCarthy is 5-8 SU and ATS as a home dog
Ugly: Super Bowl losers are 0-5 SU and 0-4-1 ATS away Game One playoffs

Home Field Disadvantage

Home cooking used to be a solid handicapping edge during the playoffs. Not so anymore.

For the longest time backing home teams in the NFL postseason has been a solid-moneymaker, going 172-120-6 (55.1%) dating back to 1980.

Today, however, that would be a mistake as the success of home teams in the playoffs has dissolved quicker than Alka Seltzer in a cold glass of water on New Year’s morning.

A closer look finds home teams just 119-107-5 ATS (51.%) since the 1990 season and, even worse, 64-66-1 ATS (49.2%) since 2000. Thus, like the economy, NFL playoff hosts have fallen on hard times.

Division Downers

Wild card road teams have a difficult time after dueling a division opponent in their season ending finale, going 21-43-1 ATS – including 1-7 ATS the last two years.

Send these highwaymen out as dogs of more than 3 points and the task worsens as they are 4-33 SU and 9-28 ATS.

Not a good sign for the Chargers this week.

ATS Diabetes

Like kids in a candy store, NFL Wild Card teams playing off huge regular season wins tend to crash-and-burn in these playoff openers.

Teams off a SU underdog win are just 11-25 SU and 13-22-1 ATS, including 3-15 SU and 4-14 ATS if the Over/Under total in today’s game is set at more than 41 points.

So long 49ers.

In a similar vein, teams suffer from more than a sugar rush In opening round playoff games if they managed to they beat the spread by 10 or points, going just 9-19-1 ATS when on the road during this round.

The Chiefs and the Saints could be up against it this weekend.

Stat of the Week

The straight-up winner in NFL opening round playoff games is 104-11-3 ATS since 1980.

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NFL line watch: Bolts bettors should wait to charge
By ART ARONSON

Each week during the pro football season, Covers Expert Art Aronson looks at the NFL odds and tells you which spread to bet now, which one to bet later, and which total to watch as the week plays out.

Spread to bet now

New Orleans Saints (+2.5) at Philadelphia Eagles

What you see is what you get with the early number in this one. Philadelphia opened up as a 2.5-point favorite and, with pretty much even wagering, that’s likely to hold firm. So if you’re waiting for this one to tip a half point either way, you most likely are out of luck.

As to the game, the spread seems to be too thin by about a point - especially considering that the Saints have not played one game this season in cold weather, which is invading the Northeast this week.

Did you think on Halloween night that the Eagles had a ghost of a chance of going 7-1 on the back nine? Only a defensive letdown in Minnesota sits between Philly and an eight-game winning streak. Andy Reid might still be in town if he had had more confidence in Nick Foles and less in Michael Vick.

Spread to wait on

San Diego Chargers (+7) at Cincinnati Bengals

Say what you want about Andy Dalton, but the kid is seventh in the league in passing yards and the Bengals have put up nearly 27 points a game (more than Seattle, San Francisco and Indianapolis) this season.

Just about a month ago the Bengals headed west and picked up a nice 17-10 win over San Diego in a defensive battle that was primarily played out between the 40 yard lines.

There has been decent early money on Cincinnati, even with the substantial line, but if the money gets serious come close to game time, they might be forced to either throw another half point more on the number.

San Diego backers, who like the way the Chargers have played on the road this season (wins at Denver, Kansas City and Philadelphia give the Bolts some significant street cred), could then swarm.

Total to watch

Kansas City Chiefs at Indianapolis Colts (46.5)

You can build a legitimate case for this one going Under based on the game that these teams played in Kansas City a little more than a week ago. The Colts’ defense put the hammer down on Kansas City’s offense, holding the Chiefs to just about 300 total yards.

But the Chiefs were crushed by turnovers in that game. Three fumbles were lost, and K.C. recovered three more of its own bobbles. Alex Smith also threw an interception.

All that won’t happen the second time around. The Chiefs should be fresh (most starters sat out the regular season finale) and figure to move the ball. Adjustments will be made and there should be some points scored in this one.

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Nelly's Green Sheet:

Indy over KC by 7

Philly over NO by 4

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Playbook:

Indy over KC by 6

Philly over NO by 7

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PointWISE:

Indy 30 KC 23

Philly 33 NO 23

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Goldsheet:

Indy 24
KC 17

NO 24
Philly 21

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Norm Hitzges

January 3-6, 2014
Last week: 13-13
Season: 224-199

NFL


Indy -1 1/2 KC
Philly -2 1/2 New Orleans
Philly New Orleans UNDER 53 1/2

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EZWINNERS

5* 6 Point Teaser Chiefs +8.5 & Saints +8.5

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Dave Cokin:

Compass Bowl: Houston +3

NFL:
Bengals -6.5

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Brady Kannon

Saints

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Nemo

# ship it

Houston -3

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Capping NFL rematches: What to keep, throw away this Wild Card Weekend

The NFL Wild Card Weekend features three rematches from the regular season, with the Chiefs taking on the Colts, the Chargers facing the Bengals, and the 49ers clashing with the Packers.

The playoffs are a completely different beast than the regular season but there are lessons learned from those previous meetings that can help NFL bettors cash in during the postseason rematches. We break down those first encounters and tell you what you should keep and throw away from those games:

Kansas City Chiefs at Indianapolis Colts (Pick, 46)

Original meeting: 23-7 Colts (Week 16)

What to keep: The Kansas City Chiefs were solid on defense against the Colts despite allowing Andrew Luck to pass fo4 241 yards. Kansas City allowed just 23 points in a game in which they were saddled with terrible field position thanks to a string of turnovers. Expect similarly solid defense from the Chiefs after resting the majority of their starters during Week 17.

What to throw away: It’s unlikely that the Chiefs will turn the ball over four times again this weekend. Kansas City ranked first in the AFC in turnover margin, giving away the ball only 18 times while forcing a total of 36 turnovers – 21 INTs and 15 fumbles – on the year. The Chiefs boast a +1.1 turnover margin per game – second best in the NFL.

San Francisco 49ers at Green Bay Packers (2.5, 46.5)

Original meeting: 34-28 49ers (Week 1)

What to keep: Packers RB Eddie Lacy and 49ers RB Frank Gore each found the end zone in Week 1, posting near identical numbers. Lacy amassed 41 yards on 14 carries and added 31 yards receiving off a catch-and-run, while Gore totaled 44 yards on 21 touches while reeling in two passes for 21 yards. With wind expected to plague the passing game, each team could give the other a healthy dose of these two downhill runners.

What to throw away: Aaron Rodgers and Colin Kaepernick combined to pass for 745 yards on 48-for-76 passing in Week 1, each connecting for three TDs through the air. Rodgers is working his way back into game shape after missing extended time with a collarbone injury and Kaepernick hasn’t been able to repeat those Week 1 numbers, plagued by sporadic performances all season. The forecast in Lambeau Field is calling for chilly temperatures and winds getting up around 20 mph, so another air show from these two QBs is unlikely.

San Diego Chargers at Cincinnati Bengals (-7, 47)

Previous meeting: 17-10 Bengals (Week 13)

What to keep: The Bengals held the Chargers offense to just 10 points and limited San Diego QB Philip Rivers to only 252 yards passing while forcing a costly interception on Dec. 1. Cincinnati was able to sack Rivers twice and keep things close after Bengals QB Andy Dalton struggled in the first half, giving Cincy a shot at winning the game in the final 30 minutes. The Bengals ranked fifth against the pass this season, allowing only 209 passing yards against per game, and ranked fourth in the AFC with 43 sacks.

What to throw away: Home-field advantage will not be had by the Chargers this weekend as they go from temperate San Diego to a chilly Paul Brown Stadium, where Cincinnati has yet to lose. The Chargers were .500 away from home this season, finishing 4-4 (4-3-1 ATS). If the Chargers want to keep their improbable winter run going forward, they will have to end the Bengals’ undefeated home record.