1-6-14

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NCAA Football Game Pick

MONDAY, JANUARY 6
Time Posted: 8:00 p.m. EST (12/16) Game 269-270: Auburn vs. Florida State (8:30 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Auburn 117.040; Florida State 120.581
Dunkel Line: Florida State by 3 1/2; 72
Vegas Line: Florida State by 8 1/2; 67
Dunkel Pick: Auburn (+8 1/2); Over

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GoodFella | CFB SideMon, 01/06/14 - 8:30 PM
triple-dime bet 269 Auburn 9.0 (-110) BetOnline vs 270 Florida St.
Analysis:
"One & Only CFB Bowl GOY" 4* on AUBURN +9

Please Read: Note that I have wagered this game for a (4*) sized bet, and the fact is I have simply bet this game 2X bigger than our "normal standard best bet (2*) size wagers". So, please remember to use proper money management based upon your own bankroll. Simply my favorite play of the entire CFB Bowl Season.

Pick Made: Dec 10 2013 6:36AM PST

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spartan | CFB Side Mon, 01/06/14 - 8:30 PM
triple-dime bet 269 Auburn 9.0 (-110) 5dimes vs 270 Florida St.


Analysis: Well this is the one and only. I honestly only do one of these each bowl season. Hopefully it will be just as easy as last year was. Time will tell. Admittedly on this one I turned to one of my most trusted sources. Frankly he laughed when I told him what the number was here. It was music to my ears because we don't always concur. I am of the opinion, and it's a strong one, that this Auburn Tigers club is more than capable of running the ball on anyone. They completely dismantled a very stout Missouri defense in the SEC title game. Mizzou defenders were very, very impressed with just about everything to do with that ground attack. I have serious doubts about the Seminoles standing up to that relentless attack for four quarters. I hate stats as much as the next guy but sometimes there are situations where they illustrate my point better than any explanation. This season Missouri allowed an average of 119 rushing yards per game. Auburn lit that unit up for an astounding 545 yards on the ground. Now guys, there is having success against a defense and then there is grinding a defense up to a pulp and spitting it out. Think it was a freak show happening? Just the week before this same Auburn machine tore through the much heralded Alabama defense for 296 yards on the ground. Fellas, against two elite teams like Missouri and Alabama that is a stellar 841 yards rushing. Now I am certain many of you have played at some level. THAT is no accident. Do you think there will be a let up with the national title at stake? I don't. Florida State has not faced this kind of relentless assault. I respect Florida State and Winston is a stud under center, no question about it. But they did not go through the meat grinder SEC like Auburn did. The Seminoles are not even the second best team in the nation in my view. Those guys played Oklahoma. This should be much more entertaining than last years game where it was like clubbing baby seals with the Tide over the Irish. I went Triple Star on Saban's guys then and I'm going a step further here. Triple Star Bowl Game of the Year on the Auburn Tigers.
Now, one final note. My regular clients know what is coming. I don't market, promote or basically have anything to do with the word lock. They are a myth. Please, bet within your means. Don't risk half you roll on any one game. I know this will go in one ear and out the other with many. There are no guarantees. I usually win my big releases and the long term record backs that up. How many services post their long term records going back five years as I do with my Triples? But it is no lock. I cannot stress that enough. Okay, enough preaching. You're grown men, I spoke my peace. If I didn't honestly give a shit I wouldn't say a word would I? Best of luck to us, enjoy the game fellas!

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Dave Essler CFB Side Mon, 01/06/14 - 8:30 PM
double-dime bet 269 Auburn

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NCAAF BCS Bowl line watch:
By STEVE MERRIL

Total to watch

Auburn Tigers vs. Florida State Seminoles (67)

It will be interesting to see what the bettors do with this total over the next three weeks.The oddsmakers opened the BCS Championship total around 64.5 or 65 depending on where you looked. Bettors liked the Over as the number now sits around 67 at most sportsbooks with 67.5 also available in some locations.

My personal totals power ratings make the game 67, so I can see why the total was bet up from the opener. But with five weeks off, we often see offenses struggle early in this game. And long scoring droughts can really hamper high totals, especially in big games. Auburn played in just one game with a higher total this season, going Over the 73-point number against Texas A&M. Florida State also played in just one game with a higher Over/Under, going Over the total of 70 (on their own) against Idaho.

Overall, Auburn only played four of its 13 games Over the posted total of 67. Florida State only played three of its 13 games Over 67. Combined, the Tigers and Seminoles would have been 7-19 Over/Under based on the current posted total of 67 points.

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BCS National Championship - Monday Jan. 6, 8:30 p.m. ET

Florida State Seminoles vs. Auburn Tigers (+8.5, 67)

The SEC has won seven consecutive BCS national championships, including Cam Newton and Auburn’s title captured in 2010 with a 22-19 win over Oregon. Auburn has five wins over ranked teams this season.

Florida State – the nation’s only unbeaten team – finished the season 11-2 ATS, one of only two FBS teams to boast 11 ATS wins. The other? Auburn.

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Boxer CFB

Monday Jan. 6th, 2014

BCS National Championship @ Rose Bowl - Pasadena, CA

Auburn +9 ( 10* )

Auburn +260 ML ( 3* )

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Docs

2 Unit Play. #269 Take Auburn Tigers +8.5 over Florida State Seminoles (BCS Championship Game, Monday, 1/6, 8:30 pm) Mag 7 Game. Many people believe that the SEC's streak of championships will end tonight but I do not believe it will come via a blowout. Auburn is not Notre Dame. They have a dynamic offense and have gotten much better on defense over the last month. Florida State has yet to have a competitive game this season and I believe that will catch up to them in this game. In recent years Florida State has had a habit of choking and getting tight in close games and it would not surprise me if that happens again on Monday night. The Tigers have a great offensive mind as their head coach and having a month to prepare for this game will allow him to come up with a few new wrinkles that FSU will not be expecting. Auburn is 4-1 ATS in their last 5 bowl games. Florida State is in for a battle and they will only win this game by a field goal.

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Allen Eastman
BCS Championship: FSU -8.5 (Jan. 06 Mon. 5:30pm PST)

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Sports Nostradamus

CFB Auburn

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Chicago Syndicate

CFB
Over Florida State

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Bank Shots: NBA's weekly betting news and notes

Each week, we look back on the NBA betting scene and give you the best - and worst - basketball bets, as well as some spots to keep an eye on with the upcoming schedule.

For the week of Dec. 29-Jan. 4

Hottest ATS - Toronto Raptors (3-0 SU, 3-0 ATS)

What a difference a month makes. The Raptors were struggling mightily before trading shot-happy small forward Rudy Gay to the Sacramento Kings; since then, Toronto has been on fire, climbing to the top of the Atlantic Division while pushing its record above the .500 mark. Toronto hasn't just covered the spread - it has left it in the dust, earning five consecutive double-digit victories highlighted by back-to-back triumphs over the Chicago Bulls and Indiana Pacers. Toronto has a difficult start to its week with road games in Miami and Indiana but closes with home dates against Detroit and Brooklyn.

Coldest ATS - Houston Rockets (1-2 SU, 0-3 ATS)

Things went a bit sour last week in Houston, where the Rockets struggled with their normally potent offense. The Rockets were thumped 117-86 against an Oklahoma City Thunder team playing without starting point guard Russell Westbrook, then returned home and were promptly stunned 110-106 by the lowly Sacramento Kings. Only a two-point win over visiting New York - a game in which Houston came in as an 11 1/2-point fave - prevented a winless week. Houston hosts the Lakers before embarking on a pivotal four-game road trek through the East.

Best Over play - San Antonio Spurs (2-2 SU, 3-0-1 O/U)

Oddsmakers have already adjusted for the Spurs' surprisingly high-powered offense - but they may have to move the total even higher with San Antonio scoring at a ridiculous clip. The Spurs are 4-0-1 O/U over their past five games, having reached the 110-point plateau in four of them. San Antonio has been doing it with typically efficient shooting, ranked second in the league in both field-goal percentage (48.7) and 3-point percentage (39.4). The Spurs have a short week coming up, visiting the Memphis Grizzlies and hosting the rival Mavericks on back-to-back nights.

Best Under play - Indiana Pacers (2-1 SU, 0-3 O/U)

The Pacers know that, with a league-average offense at best, they'll need an airtight defense to challenge the Miami Heat for the Eastern Conference title. Indiana put their defensive chops on display last week, limiting the Cleveland Cavaliers to 76 points in a one-sided win and defeating New Orleans 99-82 four days later. Slide in a 95-82 loss to the Toronto Raptors in between, and the Pacers have gone Under in six of their last seven games entering Sunday's action. Indiana has four games this week, visiting Cleveland and Atlanta and hosting Toronto and Washington.

Surveying the schedule:

The Golden State Warriors are the hottest thing going in the NBA, coming into Sunday with an eight-game winning streak. That includes four straight victories to open their season-long seven-game road trip which wraps up this week with games in Washington, Milwaukee and Brooklyn. With the Golden State offensive attack in mid-season form and the defense putting together some impressive stretches, Golden State could run the table on its road trip - and is rewarded with seven of its next nine games at home.

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NBA Top 5: Best bets heading into 2014

With the calendar officially flipped to 2014, several NBA teams will try to carry over the good value they provided bettors in the final two months of 2013.

Each of these clubs has a reason for consistently covering the spread, and those reasons vary greatly from one team to another. Expect to see the ATS totals adjusted to compensate for their respective early-season success - but that will come too late for many satisfied bettors who were rewarded for their faith.

Here are the five best bets through the first two months of the NBA season (with records ATS):

Phoenix Suns (23-8-1)

The Suns have been the best ATS play through the opening 32 games, thanks to a surprisingly potent offense ranked eighth in the NBA at 103.7 points per game. The backcourt duo of Eric Bledsoe and Goran Dragic has been a revelation for the Suns, combining to average 36.8 points and 11.7 assists per game while shooting 48.7 percent from the field. That has allowed Phoenix to boast one of the best point differentials in the league (plus-3.2).

Indiana Pacers (23-9-0)

Even with oddsmakers keenly aware of the Pacers' ability to play lockdown defense, Indiana has covered the spread more frequently than any other team in the Eastern Conference. Indiana owns the best point differential in the league (plus-9.2) on the strength of a better-than-expected defensive showing and an offense that has been buoyed by the emergence of star-in-the-making Paul George and versatile guard Lance Stephenson.

Charlotte Bobcats (20-13-2)

Charlotte has been one of the more surprising teams in the NBA so far, becoming a strong ATS play as head coach Steve Clifford extracts maximum defensive value out of his roster. The Bobcats can't score any points but they're allowing the third-fewest in the league and have been one of the most responsible teams in the league on offense, turning the ball over just 12.4 points per game. Things have leveled off of late, with Charlotte 3-4-1 ATS in its last eight.

Portland Trail Blazers (20-14-0)

The Trail Blazers have provided a double dose of betting value, routinely covering the spread while emerging as a reliable "over" option (25-9-0 O/U). Offense has been the catalyst for the Blazers' rise to ATS prominence; they average a whopping 108.7 points per game, nearly two points more than the next best team (Minnesota). Portland is averaging a hair under 40 percent from 3-point range, which is likely unsustainable but impressive nonetheless.

Los Angeles Clippers (21-15-0)

Lob City is populated by plenty of happy bettors in the early going, with the Clippers coming into the weekend second in the Western Conference in covers. Everyone expected Los Angeles to be sound offensively - and it has, averaging 104.8 points - but it has also been passable on the defensive end, limiting the opposition to 100.1 points - the fifth-best rate in the conference. Covering will be a lot tougher with point guard Chris Paul out a month.

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Pucking the Trends: NHL's weekly betting news and notes

Every week, we update you on who's hot, who's not and situational betting spots in the National Hockey League.

For the week of Dec. 29-Jan. 4:

Hot team

St. Louis Blues (4-0 SU)

Things haven't been better in Bluesville, with St. Louis riding a five-game winning streak and looking like a legitimate Stanley Cup contender as the season reaches its midway point. The Blues reeled off four straight victories last week, including back-to-back one-sided home wins over the Los Angeles Kings and Columbus Blue Jackets. With St. Louis ranked second in the league in goals and third in goals-against, the Blues are firing on all cylinders as they prepare for their three-game jaunt through Western Canada beginning Tuesday in Edmonton.

Cold team

Washington Capitals (0-4 SU)

The Capitals have long been considered one of hockey's streakiest teams, and last week was an extension of a serious cold stretch that kicked off just before Christmas. Washington looked flat offensively in losses in Buffalo and Ottawa, then endured a number of defensive struggles in defeats at the hands of the Carolina Hurricanes and Minnesota Wild. The Capitals have five days to mull over their latest loss before they hit the ice in Tampa Bay, followed closely by home contests against Toronto and Buffalo.

Best Over play

Montreal Canadiens (3-0-1 O/U)

The Canadiens have been one of the league's best Over plays since the middle of December, and that's not necessarily a good thing. Normally one of the most defensively responsible teams in hockey, Montreal has surrendered four or more goals in four consecutive games and five of the last seven to slip to fourth in the Eastern Conference standings. Struggling netminder Carey Price and the Montreal defense will look to get back on track this week with home games against Florida and Chicago and a visit to Philadelphia.

Best Under play

Buffalo Sabres (0-3-1 O/U)

Buffalo bolstered its spot as the best Under play in the NHL, nearly putting together a perfect week as it continues its march toward a historic goal shortage. The Sabres enter Sunday with just 74 goals through its first 42 games of the season, a whopping 22 fewer tallies than the 29th-ranked Calgary Flames. Buffalo has scored more than two goals just once in its last seven games, but could find some success this week with home games against Carolina and Florida - two teams that rank in the lower half in goals-against in the East.

Surveying the schedule:

The Ottawa Senators used a four-game winning streak to climb into eighth place in the East, but staying there could prove difficult. Coming off a 4-3 overtime victory in Montreal, the Senators conclude their four-game road trip with games in Colorado, Nashville and Minnesota. Ottawa is a reasonable 8-8-3 away from Scotiabank Place so far this season, but is a dismal 3-9-3 versus the Western Conference and remains one of the more generous teams in the league at 3.1 goals against per game.