1-10-14

[Can'tPickAWinner]

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Celtics at Warriors: What bettors need to know

Boston Celtics at Golden State Warriors (-10.5, 203.5)

The Golden State Warriors were four minutes away from the first 7-0 road trip in NBA history before finally running out of gas. The Warriors get to head home on Friday when they host the Boston Celtics, who are losers of six straight. Golden State matched the second-longest winning streak in franchise history with 10 straight before suffering a 102-98 loss at the Brooklyn Nets on Wednesday.

“Our visions were set on finishing out the road trip with a win and what it meant,” Stephen Curry said. “It’s frustrating that we couldn’t get that done, but it’s just one loss. We just have to regroup, get some rest and get ready for Friday.” The Warriors have played the most road games in the NBA but will get a chance for some rest with nine of the next 12 on their homecourt. The Celtics are on the back end of a five-game trip and have dropped the first three.

TV: 10:30 p.m. ET, CSN New England (Boston), CSN Bay Area (Golden State)

ABOUT THE CELTICS (13-23): Boston was crushed by an average of 27 points at Oklahoma City and Denver to start the road trip but put up a better effort at the Los Angeles Clippers in a 111-105 setback on Wednesday. “I thought we were ready emotionally to compete,” coach Brad Stevens said. “So that’s a positive. We’ve got to build on it. We’ve got to do it again and again and again.” The Celtics were burned on high pick-and-rolls by the Thunder and the Nuggets but made a change to the starting lineup in Los Angeles by inserting Kris Humphries at the power forward spot and did a better job of containing the play against the Clippers.

ABOUT THE WARRIORS (24-14): Golden State can run a high pick-and-roll as well as any team in the league with Stephen Curry and David Lee but got in trouble against Brooklyn when tired legs led to turnovers and jumpers falling short. “I don’t think we executed offensively as well as we wanted to,” Lee said. “…so it was a frustrating way to end the streak, but overall a 6-1 road trip is very positive.” The streak allowed the Warriors to gain some ground in the Western Conference and they sit a game behind the Clippers in the Pacific Division after jumping over the Phoenix Suns. Golden State won its last three home games and is 11-4 in its own building.

TRENDS:

* Celtics are 2-8 ATS in the last 10 meetings.
* Warriors are 8-2 ATS in their last 10 home games vs. a team with a losing road record.
* Under is 15-6 in Celtics last 21 road games.
* Under is 6-2 in Warriors last 8 Friday games.

BUZZER BEATERS:

1. The Celtics have taken four of the last five in the series but lost their trip to Golden State last season 101-83.

2. Boston G Avery Bradley is averaging 19.3 points over the last four games.

3. Curry has committed at least seven turnovers in three of the last four games.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Inside the Stats: Raptors sizzle since Christmas
By MARC LAWRENCE

Move aside, college football. The BCS era finally is over and with it our focus shifts to the hardwood where March Madness begins in less than 70 days.

Let’s take a look at what’s happening in hoops as we enter this weekend. All results are ATS (Against The Spread) unless noted otherwise.

Show Me The Money

Pay close attention to teams that are hot and those who are not. Here is a list teams taking the court this weekend on either hot or cold streaks.

Hot moneymakers (minimum seven results):
Creighton 8-0
Harvard 6-1-1
Hawaii 8-1
Kansas State 8-1
Utah 8-1-1
Wichita State 9-1

Not moneymakers:
Alabama 1-6
Boston College 0-7
Bradley 1-8
Colorado State 1-8-1
LSU 1-6
NC Wilmington 1-7-1
South Alabama 1-6


Dogmania

The best underdogs this college basketball season have been Dayton, Houston and Kent State, all 4-0.

The worst dogs have been Northwestern and Texas State, both 0-6.

LaSalle is nipping at their heels at 0-4.


Defense Rules

Here is a list of the Top 5 college hoops teams on the defensive front, in Defensive Field Goal percentage and Rebound Margin. Look to ‘play on’ these teams in either revenge or underdog roles:

Defensive Field Goal Percentage –
1. Clemson 35.1
2. SMU 35.8
3. Iowa 36.2
4. San Diego State 36.3
5. Arizona 36.6

Rebounding Margin –
1. Quinnipiac +14.6
2. Arizona +13.4
3. Kentucky +13.3
4. Indiana +13.1
5. UAB +12.7

Here is a list of the Top 5 NBA defensive teams:

Scoring Defense –
1. Pacers 88.3
2. Bulls 92.0
3. Bobcats 95.8
4. Spurs 96.9
5. Raptors 97.1

Rebounding Margin –
1. Thunder +5.2
2. Warriors +4.4
3. Pacers +3.8
4. Grizzlies +3.6
5. Trailblazers +3.6


Not Again

NBA teams who have managed to pull an upset have been crashing back to earth with regularity this season.

That’s confirmed by the fact that teams off a SU underdog win are just 69-84-7 ATS overall, including 8-23-2 ATS when off back-to-back puppy wins.

When these same back-to-back upset winners have squared off against an opponent with a winning record they’ just about fallen off the map, going 2-13 SU and ATS.


Stat Of The Week

The Toronto Raptors are 8-0 ATS since Christmas.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

WINNING POINTS

PRO BASKETBALL

***BEST BET
*Indiana over Washington by 22
Indiana is 20-7 ATS at home through this past Monday and has way too much
defense and discipline for Washington. The Pacers should be ready to go all out, too,
since they don't play again until Tuesday. The Wizards lack of depth figures to hurt
them as this marks their third road game in four days.
INDIANA 104-82.

Detroit over *Philadelphia by 3
The 76ers were outrebounded, 57-41, in a dreadful 115-100 road loss to the Pistons
on Dec. 1.
DETROIT 108-105.

*Atlanta over Houston by 4
The Hawks are a play-on team at home where they've covered 11 of their first 17
while averaging more than 103 points per game.
ATLANTA 109-105.

Miami over *Brooklyn by 9
The Heat entered January having covered four of five times when playing on the second of back-to-back games and have revenge for a 101-100 road loss to Brooklyn on Nov. 1 back when the Nets still had Brook Lopez to score inside.
MIAMI 106-97.

*Memphis over Phoenix by 6
Even if Marc Gasol isn't back, the Grizzlies with Zach Randolph and Ed Davis have
too rebounding for the small Suns. Memphis outrebounded the Suns, 59-40, in beating
Phoenix in the desert eight days ago.
MEMPHIS 98-92.

*New Orleans over Dallas by 3
The Pelicans remain one of more inconsistent teams in the NBA, although Anthony
Davis continues his superstar status run. The Mavericks are below average defensively
and just played at the Spurs on Wednesday. The teams meet again tomorrow.
NEW ORLEANS 104-101.

*Minnesota over Charlotte by 7
It's not just Kevin Love that Al Jefferson has to contend with. Nikola Pekovic has
become a double-double machine, too, for the Timberwolves, who have too much
offense for the Bobcats. Minnesota was averaging 113.3 points during its last six home
games through this past Tuesday. Charlotte ranks near the bottom in scoring, field
goal percentage 3-point shooting.
MINNESOTA 103-96.

Chicago over *Milwaukee by 3
Milwaukee has dropped seven home games in a row to the Bulls, although they covered
in a 91-90 loss at Bradley Center to Chicago on Dec. 13. Chicago didn't have
Luol Deng in that contest.
CHICAGO 94-91.

*Utah over Cleveland by 2
Cleveland is not a team to back on the road, but neither are the Jazz worth taking
when laying points in Salt Lake City where they are 1-3 ATS as chalk and rarely win
by more than four points.
UTAH 99-97.

*Sacramento over Orlando by 3
The Magic have some payback after losing at home to Sacramento, 105-100, on Dec.
21. The Magic have been a money-maker on the road covering nine of their first 15.
This marks their third of five consecutive away contests for the Kings.
SACRAMENTO 104-101.

*Golden State over Boston by 5
The Celtics can't keep up with the Warriors' high scoring backcourt of Stephen Curry
and Klay Thompson. However, this is a potential dangerous spot for Golden State.
The Warriors have been on the road since Dec. 29. This is their first game back since
finishing up their seven-game road swing that ended Wednesday night.
GOLDEN STATE 107-102.

***BEST BET
*Los Angeles Clippers over Los Angeles Lakers by 20
The Clippers have been waiting since opening night to avenge a 116-103 loss to the
Lakers. The Lakers aren't going to make 14 of 29 3-point shots like they did in the
first meeting. Doc Rivers has tightened up the Clippers' defense significantly.
LA CLIPPERS 115-95.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

WINNING POINTS

COLLEGE BASKETBALL
Valparaiso* over Wright State by 1
Wright State was 0-2 SU vs. the Horizon League Champ version of Valpo last season.
But they lost by only 6 and 7 points. Now there are many different pieces for Valpo
and Wright State goes deeper than they have in a while. Since he started playing only
six games ago, Wright State guard Chrishawn Hopkins has been getting to the free
throw line like he owns the keys to it. VALPARAISO, 69-68.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

POINTWISE

COLLEGIATE
BASKETBALL PROPHECY

(9:00) VALPARAISO 75 - Wright State 68 _____ _____

BEST BETS: NONE

[Can'tPickAWinner]

POINTWISE

NBA BASKETBALL

(7:05) INDIANA PACERS 110 - Washington Wizards 101 _____ _____

(7:05) PHILADELPHIA 76ERS 99 - Detroit Pistons 98 _____ _____

(7:35) Houston Rockets 103 - ATLANTA HAWKS 97 _____ _____

(8:05) Miami Heat 121 - BROOKLYN NETS 101 (ESPN) _____ _____

(8:05) MEMPHIS GRIZZLIES 108 - Phoenix Suns 98 _____ _____

(8:05) NEW ORLEANS PELICANS 101 - Dallas 100 _____ _____

(8:05) MINNESOTA TIMBERWOLVES 106 - Charlotte 91 _____ _____

(8:35) Chicago Bulls 90 - MILWAUKEE BUCKS 84 _____ _____

(9:05) UTAH JAZZ 106 - Cleveland Cavaliers 105 _____ _____

(10:05) Orlando Magic 95 - SACRAMENTO KINGS 93 _____ _____

(10:35) GOLDEN STATE 111 - Boston Celtics 98 _____ _____

(10:35) LA CLIPPERS 113 - LA Lakers 98 (ESPN) _____ _____


BEST BETS
MIAMI
MINNESOTA (4)
ORLANDO
LA CLIPPERS

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Penguins at Oilers What bettors need to know

Pittsburgh Penguins at Edmonton Oilers (+162, 5.5)

The Eastern Conference-leading Pittsburgh Penguins vie for their fourth straight victory and 18th in 21 outings on Friday when they visit the Western Conference cellar-dwelling Edmonton Oilers. Pittsburgh opened its three-game trek through Western Canada with a 5-4 shootout triumph over Vancouver on Tuesday. Captain Sidney Crosby returning to the scene of his 2010 Olympic gold-medal game heroics by scoring late in regulation before netting the lone goal of the bonus format.

Crosby drilled the Oilers in the teams' first meeting, setting up all three goals in the Penguins' 3-2 victory on Oct. 15. While Pittsburgh is surging, Edmonton is trending in the wrong direction as it suffered its 11th loss in 14 outings (3-9-2) with a 5-2 setback to St. Louis on Tuesday. Nail Yakupov scored his third goal in four contests in the loss.

TV: 10 p.m. ET, ROOT (Pittsburgh), TSN (Edmonton)

ABOUT THE PENGUINS (32-12-1): While Crosby is riding a six-game point streak, fellow former Hart Trophy winner Evgeni Malkin has collected three goals and an assist in two contests since returning from a nine-game absence with a leg injury. Malkin scored the game-winning goal in the teams' previous meeting and has recorded six points in four career contests versus Edmonton. Marc-Andre Fleury made 20 saves against the Oilers in October, but has yielded nine goals in his last two outings.

ABOUT THE OILERS (14-27-5): With a sputtering offense scoring two or fewer goals in three of the past four games, coach Dallas Eakins tested Sam Gagner at right wing in Thursday's practice. As a result, rookie Mark Arcobello saw time on the team's second line at center with Jordan Eberle and Yakupov. "I'm used to it," Arcobello said of the changes. "I've played up and down the lineup. Whatever opportunity I'm given, it's not going to be a new one for me."

TRENDS:
* Over is 6-0 in Oilers last six overall.
* Penguins are 8-3 in their last 11 road games.
* Oilers are 5-2 in their last seven games playing on two days rest.
* Over is 5-1 in Penguins last six overall.

OVERTIME:
1. Arcobello scored against the Blues, marking his first time he found the net since Edmonton's 8-2 rout versus Colorado on Dec. 5.

2. Pittsburgh has killed off all 16 short-handed opportunities in its last six games.

3. Edmonton assigned D Brad Hunt to Oklahoma City of the American Hockey League, potentially opening the door for D Corey Potter to return from a groin injury.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

NCAA Basketball Picks

Wright State at Valparaiso

The Raiders travel to Valparaiso tonight where they are 3-0-1 ATS in the last 4 meetings between the two teams. Wright State is the pick (+6) according to Dunkel, which has the Crusaders favored by only 3. Dunkel Pick: Wright State (+6). Here are all of today's games.

FRIDAY, JANUARY 10 Time Posted: 8:00 a.m. EST

Game 825-826: Wright State at Valparaiso (9:00 p.m. EST) Dunkel Ratings: Wright State 53.673; Valparaiso 56.493 Dunkel Line: Valparaiso by 3 Vegas Line: Valparaiso by 6 Dunkel Pick: Wright State (+6)

Game 827-828: Fairfield at Iona (7:00 p.m. EST) Dunkel Ratings: Fairfield 44.177; Iona 60.214 Dunkel Line: Iona by 16 Vegas Line: Iona by 13 Dunkel Pick: Iona (-13)

Game 829-830: Marist at Siena (7:00 p.m. EST) Dunkel Ratings: Marist 50.498; Siena 56.660 Dunkel Line: Siena by 6 Vegas Line: Siena by 4 1/2 Dunkel Pick: Siena (-4 1/2)

Game 831-832: Rider at Canisius (7:00 p.m. EST) Dunkel Ratings: Rider 50.096; Canisius 58.421 Dunkel Line: Canisius by 8 1/2 Vegas Line: Canisius by 6 1/2 Dunkel Pick: Canisius (-6 1/2)

Game 833-834: Monmouth at Niagara (7:00 p.m. EST) Dunkel Ratings: Monmouth 47.348; Niagara 55.138 Dunkel Line: Niagara by 8 Vegas Line: Niagara by 5 1/2 Dunkel Pick: Niagara (-5 1/2)

Game 841-842: Radford at High Point (7:00 p.m. EST) Dunkel Ratings: Radford 44.156; High Point 49.609 Dunkel Line: High Point by 5 1/2 Vegas Line: High Point by 1 Dunkel Pick: High Point (-1)

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Free Selection from Arthur Ralph Sports

Free winner FRI Golden State - 10 1/2

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Cappers Access

Clippers -10.5

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Gamblers Data

Free Plays Friday

Sacramento -7

Blues -120

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Today's NHL Picks

Carolina at Columbus

The Hurricanes head to Columbus tonight to face a Blue Jackets team that is coming off a 4-3 shootout win over the Rangers and is 4-10 in its last 14 games following a victory. Carolina is the pick (+135) according to Dunkel, which has the Hurricanes favored by 1. Dunkel Pick: Carolina (+135). Here are all of today's picks.

FRIDAY, JANUARY 10 Time Posted: 9:00 a.m. EST

Game 1-2: Dallas at NY Rangers (7:00 p.m. EST) Dunkel Ratings: Dallas 12.215; NY Rangers 10.933 Dunkel Line & Total: Dallas by 1 1/2; 6 1/2 Vegas Line & Total: NY Rangers (-155); 5 1/2 Dunkel Pick: Dallas (+135); Over

Game 3-4: Toronto at Washington (7:00 p.m. EST) Dunkel Ratings: Toronto 9.585; Washington 11.086 Dunkel Line & Total: Washington by 1 1/2; 5 Vegas Line & Total: Washington (-160); 5 1/2 Dunkel Pick: Washington (-160); Under

Game 5-6: Carolina at Columbus (7:00 p.m. EST) Dunkel Ratings: Carolina 11.862; Columbus 10.644 Dunkel Line & Total: Carolina by 1; 6 1/2 Vegas Line & Total: Columbus (-155); 5 1/2 Dunkel Pick: Carolina (+135); Over

Game 7-8: NY Islanders at Colorado (9:00 p.m. EST) Dunkel Ratings: NY Islanders 10.630; Colorado 12.122 Dunkel Line & Total: Colorado by 1 1/2; 5 Vegas Line & Total: Colorado (-160); 5 1/2 Dunkel Pick: Colorado (-160); Under

Game 9-10: Pittsburgh at Edmonton (10:00 p.m. EST) Dunkel Ratings: Pittsburgh 12.047; Edmonton 10.386 Dunkel Line & Total: Pittsburgh by 1 1/2; 5 Vegas Line & Total: Pittsburgh (-185); 5 1/2 Dunkel Pick: Pittsburgh (-185); Under

Game 11-12: St. Louis at Vancouver (10:00 p.m. EST) Dunkel Ratings: St. Louis 12.406; Vancouver 13.333 Dunkel Line & Total: Vancouver by 1; 6 Vegas Line & Total: St. Louis (-120); 5 1/2 Dunkel Pick: Vancouver (+100); Over

[Can'tPickAWinner]

StatFox Super Situations™ - FoxSheets

CBB RIDER at CANISIUS
Play Against - Home favorites of 3.5 to 9.5 points (CANISIUS) off an upset loss to a conference rival as a favorite against opponent off a road loss by 10 points or more
41-15 over the last 5 seasons. ( 73.2% 24.5 units )
1-0 this year. ( 100.0% 1.0 units )

CBB MARIST at SIENA
Play Against - A home team vs. the money line (SIENA) playing with 5 or 6 days rest, in a game involving two bad teams (20% to 40%)
37-29 over the last 5 seasons. ( 56.1% 28.4 units )
0-2 this year. ( 0.0% -2.0 units )

CBB RIDER at CANISIUS
Play On - Road underdogs of 2 to 3.5 points vs. the first half line (RIDER) off a loss by 10 points or more to a conference rival against opponent off an upset loss as a favorite
54-23 over the last 5 seasons. ( 70.1% 28.7 units )
2-0 this year. ( 100.0% 2.0 units )

[Can'tPickAWinner]

NCAAB

Friday, January 10

Wright State is 0-8 on road, losing by 5 at Detroit in Horizon opener on road; Raiders force turnovers 25.3% of time (#3 in US) but are turning it over 21.4% of time themselves. Valparaiso won six of last seven games with Wright State, winning three meetings LY by 6-7-8 points, including 62-54 win in Horizon finals- they lost three of last four games overall, are turning ball 22.1% of time.

Iona (-5.5) won 83-72 at Fairfield Dec 8, shooting 58.5% inside arc with a 23-12 edge on foul line; Gaels won five of their last seven series games. Fairfield lost last six visits to Iona by 15-4-10-5-5-11 points; they're 0-5 in MAAC after blowing 17-point lead with 10:59 left, losing road games by 4-19-26 points. Gaels lost five of last six games but are 3-1 at home in MAAC, winning both home games by 9-26 points.

Marist won last five games after starting season 0-9; they split last four games with Siena, after losing previous ten games with Saints. Red Foxes lost five of last six visits to Albany, losing by 4-17-25-8-11. Siena is 2-2 in MAAC, beating Rider by 15 in only home game- they won three of last four games overall, but are turning ball over 22.2% of time. MAAC single digit home favorites are 6-2 against spread.

Rider won six of last eight games with Canisius, winning last three visits here by 1-5-4 points- they won five of their last seven games, but lost last game by 15 at Siena. Last three Canisius games were decided by 4 or less points or in OT; Griffins are 4-0 at home, but none of victims are in top 200- they're forcing turnovers 20% of time, making 40% (#25 in US) on arc. Rider is 2-4 on road, with three losses by 14+.

Monmouth is 1-3 in its first MAAC season, losing by 9 at Manhattan in its only road game; Hawks are 6-3 vs teams outside top 200- they force turnovers 21.9% (#28) of time, but shoot just 43.1% inside arc. Niagara is 1-3 in MAAC in its first year with its new coach, losing by 13-2-26 points- they lost last game 118-92 at Iona- Gaels' eFG% was 75.6%-- they made 14-26 from arc.