1-12-14

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Sports Reporter:

SF by 12 *Recommended play

Den by 4

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Winning pts.

SF by 4

Den by 5

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Goldsheet:

SF 22 Car 16

Den 27 SD 24

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Power Plays:

No play Caro 22 SF 20

2* OVER in Den

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PowerSweep:

2* Caro over SF

1* OVER in Den

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Pointwise:

Caro 20 SF 16

Den 30 SD 27

[Can'tPickAWinner]

WAYNE ROOT

SUNDAY NFL DIVISIONAL PLAYOFF GAMES

INNER CIRCLE---DENVER
On Sunday, the San Diego Chargers will invade Mile High Stadium to take on the Denver Broncos. The Chargers ended the season playing some great football. They ended the season beating the Broncos and the Chiefs. They are coming off of a game in which they dominated the Cincinnati Bengals. The Broncos will be well rested and sporting the league’s most potent offense. This year, Peyton Manning threw for 5,477 yard and 55 touchdowns. Running back, Knowshon Moreno, rushed for more than a thousand yards on the season, even being out several weeks an injury. The Denver defense will have to be able to stop the running game of the Chargers if they are to give the offense a chance to get going. After defeating the Bengals 27-10, the Chargers will be looking forward to upsetting the Broncos one more time. However, it is very difficult to beat the same team the same season especially when they last played about 3 weeks ago.Defense used to win in playoff games but not any more. With the rule changes made to the QB's, WR's and the restraints placed upon the defenses, it's all about scoring!! Peyton Manning knows after last season brutal loss against Baltimore that time may be running out. TAKE DENVER
____________________________________________

Pinnacle---CAROLINA....DIVISIONAL PLAYOFF GAME OF THE YEAR
The San Francisco 49ers will invade Bank of America Stadium in order to take on the Carolina PanthersThey played their first playoff game against the Green Bay Packers, who were more than game for this one but did manage to move to round 2. The 49ers had a great season by most standards, but suffered the
consequences of being in the same division with the Seattle Seahawks. This meant that the Niners had to enter the playoffs by way of wildcard birth. Wild Card teams that win their first game and then hit the road for game 2 almost never cover the pointspread.The Panthers got off to slow start this season, but they picked up steam with an 8 game winning streak that placed them on top the NFC South. They have played great on the defensive end of the ball. Quarterback, Cam Newton, has had a solid season, throwing for 3,379 yards and 24 touchdowns. Smart money lit up the Sportsbooks after hearing that Steve Smith is ready to play. Public perception is the 49ers have advantage on defense and maybe even at the QB spot but if you watch the games this year or have looked at the numbers neither are true. Just as dominant will be the Carolina defense, since week 6 Panthers have only given up over 20 points once and they keep it going this week. TAKE CAROLINA

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STATSYSTEMS SPORTS DIVISIONAL ROUND REPORT

NFC Divisional Playoffs

#115 SAN FRANCISCO @ #116 CAROLINA
(TV: 1:05 PM EST, FOX. Line: 49ers -1, Total: 42) - While San Francisco's Colin Kaepernick aims to continue his postseason success with a much better performance than his last against Carolina, the Panthers' Cam Newton won't make too much of his playoff debut. Trying for an eighth straight victory that would send them to their third consecutive NFC championship game, Kaepernick and the visiting 49ers look to avenge a regular-season loss to Newton and the Panthers on Sunday.

In perhaps the roughest of his 27 career starts, Kaepernick went 11 of 22 for a season-low 91 yards with an interception, was sacked a career-high six times and rushed for 16 during San Francisco's 10-9 home loss to Carolina on Nov. 10. By holding the hosts to a season-low 151 yards to win their fourth straight in the series, the Panthers also cooled off a 49ers team that at the time was riding a five-game winning streak during which it averaged 34.8 points. "We owe 'em," Kaepernick said after he threw for 227 yards and ran for 98 during a 23-20 wild-card victory at Green Bay on Sunday.

Bucking the elements by not wearing long sleeves, Kaepernick improved to 3-1 in the postseason. He defied the bitter cold and harsh winds to complete 16 of 30 passes, including eight for 125 yards to Michael Crabtree and a key fourth-quarter 28-yard scoring strike to a well-covered Vernon Davis. Kaepernick averaged only 32.8 rushing yards during the regular season, but he often used his legs to keep drives alive against the Packers. His 11-yard run on third-and-8 set up Phil Dawson's 33-yard field goal as time expired. Kaepernick has gained 362 yards while averaging 11.3 per run in his four postseason games.

"Our defensive ends can't get too far past the quarterback or he takes off and it gives him huge lanes," said Panthers defensive tackle Dwan Edwards, who took down Kaepernick for two of his three sacks this season. "It's important that everyone stays in their lanes and when someone does get out of their lane we have to cover that up quickly." The Panthers understand containing Kaepernick a second time likely won't be easy, even for a defense that was second in the NFL with 301.2 yards and 15.1 points allowed per contest, while topping the league with 60 sacks. During the 49ers' current seven-game run, Kaepernick has averaged 231.7 passing yards, thrown 11 TDs with two INTs and averaged 6.7 yards per rush while posting a 101.7 passer rating.

"I expect the young man to come out and play well," said Ron Rivera, the once-embattled Carolina coach who will guide the Panthers to their first playoff appearance in five seasons after going 12-4 to win the NFC South. "All you have to do is watch the way he has played down the stretch," Rivera added. Kaepernick also will have a stronger supporting cast this time. Crabtree, who missed the first meeting with the Panthers while recovering from a serious Achilles injury, has 28 receptions for 410 yards and three touchdowns in his last four postseason games. Davis, who left that contest early with a concussion, has 24 receptions for 583 yards with six TDs in six career postseason contests.

Frank Gore was held to 66 yards on 20 carries last weekend, but scored a TD for the fourth straight postseason game. "It's a team game and it's going to take a little bit from everybody," Crabtree said. "I think we got those key players." So do the Panthers, none more important than Newton. After a sub-standard follow-up to his stellar 2011 rookie season, Newton bounced back in 2013 to set career highs in touchdown passes (24), completion percentage (61.7) and passer rating (88.8) while also rushing for 585 yards and six scores. He's helped the Panthers win 11 of 12, leading four game-winning drives during that span.

Now, he will try to push aside the hype of his first playoff experience to help Carolina end a two-game postseason slide. The Panthers are seeking their first playoff victory since a 29-21 win at Chicago on Jan. 15, 2006 in the divisional round. "You don't want to be overthinking things," Newton said. "I have yet to experience a playoff game, but I know the atmosphere will be hectic to say the least." Newton, however, must improve after Carolina's offense was held to 17 or fewer points in two of the past four games. He completed 57.1 percent of his passes for 330 yards with three TDs and two INTs in the last two, but beat New Orleans and Atlanta.

"I need to be better, not missing throws that I'm capable of making," said Newton, who went 16 of 32 for 169 yards with an interception at San Francisco this season. Newton expects to have receiver Steve Smith back after he injured his knee against the Saints and missed the regular-season finale against the Falcons. Though Smith has not caught more than six passes or recorded more than 69 receiving yards in a game in 2013, he has seven touchdowns in eight career postseason contests. Smith caught six passes for 63 yards Nov. 10 against the 49ers, who have outscored their last seven opponents 182-114.

Carolina has posted a 200-84 scoring advantage while winning seven straight home games since a 12-7 season-opening loss to Seattle. The Panthers last made the playoffs in the 2008 season, also finishing 12-4 to win the South and earn a first-round bye before losing 33-13 to Arizona. Taking the next step after a stellar regular season will again be the focus for Carolina. "It is one of the goals you set for yourself and for your team," Rivera said. "We accomplished that first one (by winning the division) but there is a lot more left to go."

•PREGAME NOTES: The Panthers are the only home underdogs this weekend, and this game also represents the lowest total of the week to boot. The Niners didn't score an offensive touchdown in a 10-9 loss at home to these Panthers earlier this year. Carolina has only been to the NFC Championship Game two other times in its history. San Fran has been there in consecutive seasons. The Panthers are 11-1 SU and 8-3-1 ATS in their last 12 games overall. The Niners have won seven games in a row and are 4-2-1 ATS in those games. The Under is 8-1 in Carolina's last nine games, but the Over is 10-3 in the last 13 meetings in this series.

•KEY STATS
-- SAN FRANCISCO is 9-1 ATS (+7.9 Units) when playing against a top-level team (Win Pct. > 75%) over the last 3 seasons.
The average score was SAN FRANCISCO 29.6, OPPONENT 18.2.

-- SAN FRANCISCO is 8-1 ATS (+6.9 Units) in road games versus poor passing defenses - allowing a completion pct. of 61% or worse over the last 2 seasons.
The average score was SAN FRANCISCO 30.4, OPPONENT 17.3.

-- SAN FRANCISCO is 12-27 ATS (-17.7 Units) versus good rushing defenses - allowing <=90 rushing yards/game since 1992.
The average score was SAN FRANCISCO 19.3, OPPONENT 24.3.

-- SAN FRANCISCO is 7-0 against the 1rst half line (+7.0 Units) in all games where the first half total is between 18 and 21 this season.
The average score was SAN FRANCISCO 18.6, OPPONENT 6.9.

-- SAN FRANCISCO is 3-12 against the 1rst half line (-10.2 Units) in road games revenging a same season loss against opponent since 1992.
The average score was SAN FRANCISCO 9.9, OPPONENT 17.9.

-- SAN FRANCISCO is 27-6 OVER (+20.4 Units) the 1rst half total revenging a home loss against opponent since 1992.
The average score was SAN FRANCISCO 11.6, OPPONENT 15.2.

-- SAN FRANCISCO is 26-7 OVER (+18.3 Units) the 1rst half total revenging a loss where team scored less than 14 points since 1992.
The average score was SAN FRANCISCO 14.2, OPPONENT 13.1.

-- CAROLINA is 6-0 ATS (+6.0 Units) after playing their last game on the road this season.
The average score was CAROLINA 31.1, OPPONENT 11.6.

-- RIVERA is 16-4 ATS (+11.6 Units) after playing their last game on the road as the coach of CAROLINA.
The average score was CAROLINA 28.0, OPPONENT 18.6.

-- CAROLINA is 10-0 UNDER (+10.0 Units) off an extremely close win by 3 points or less over a division rival since 1992.
The average score was CAROLINA 18.2, OPPONENT 15.0.

-- CAROLINA is 6-0 UNDER (+6.0 Units) after 3 or more consecutive wins this season.
The average score was CAROLINA 21.3, OPPONENT 15.3.

-- CAROLINA is 11-2 against the 1rst half line (+8.8 Units) after 1 or more consecutive losses against the spread over the last 2 seasons.
The average score was CAROLINA 13.6, OPPONENT 6.8.

•HEAD-TO-HEAD HISTORY
The Panthers edged the 49ers in early November as Carolina cashed outright as six-point road underdogs. Carolina has won four straight meetings with San Francisco since 2004, including home victories in 2007 and 2010.

--CAROLINA is 15-3 against the spread versus SAN FRANCISCO since 1992.
--CAROLINA is 11-7 straight up against SAN FRANCISCO since 1992.
--12 of 17 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL since 1992.

--CAROLINA is 13-5 versus the first half line when playing against SAN FRANCISCO since 1992.
--11 of 18 games in this series have gone OVER THE FIRST HALF TOTAL since 1992.

--49ers are 3-13 ATS in their last 16 meetings.
--49ers are 0-4 ATS in their last 4 meetings in Carolina.

--Over is 10-3 in the last 13 meetings.
--Over is 4-1 in the last 5 meetings in Carolina.

•RECENT TRENDS
--49ers are 5-0 ATS in their last 5 road games vs. a team with a winning home record.
--Over is 7-1 in 49ers last 8 road games vs. a team with a winning home record.
--Over is 10-2 in 49ers last 12 games after accumulating more than 150 yards rushing.

--Under is 6-0 in Panthers last 6 vs. NFC.
--Under is 8-0 in Panthers last 8 games following a S.U. win.
--Under is 4-0 in Panthers last 4 vs. a team with a winning record.
_________________________________

AFC Divisional Playoffs

#117 SAN DIEGO @ #118 DENVER
(TV: 4:40 PM EST, CBS. Line: Broncos -9, Total: 54.5) - While the San Diego Chargers enter Sunday's AFC divisional playoff game in Denver as nearly double-digit underdogs, they aren't lacking for confidence after getting the best of Peyton Manning's Broncos at Mile High last month. Coach John Fox's team is out to make sure that doesn't happen again. Denver had outscored opponents by an average of 20.4 points in winning its first seven home games before falling 27-20 to San Diego on Dec. 12. Ryan Mathews ran for 127 yards and a touchdown while the Chargers (10-7) held the Broncos (13-3) to their lowest point total of the season.

"It's tough to say you're confident knowing what you're going against. You don't want to take that the wrong way," Chargers Pro Bowl safety Eric Weddle said. "Do we believe we can win (again)? Yes. Do we know what a tough challenge it is and how great we have to play? Yeah. It's not just because it's happened in the past it's going to happen. You still have to play at a high level and do the things necessary as a team to win... We have been the underdog all year. We are out to continue to believe in ourselves." Having averaged 37.9 points during the regular season - the highest of any team in the Super Bowl era - the Broncos were held to fewer than 30 in just three games, two of which came against the Chargers.

Denver won 28-20 at San Diego in Week #10 behind 330 yards and four touchdowns from Manning. "It taught us a lesson," tight end Jacob Tamme said of last month's loss. "We did kind of reboot after that and yes, I think we know that we need to play our best ball going forward and that's what we're planning on doing." While beating the Chargers remains priority No. 1, the Broncos are also eager to prove themselves following last season's divisional round collapse against eventual Super Bowl champion Baltimore. Denver gave up a game-tying 70-yard touchdown with 31 seconds left in regulation before falling 38-35 in double-overtime last Jan. 12 - exactly a year to the day of Sunday's clash.

"You don't harp on the first time you fell off your bike, but you remember falling off and you know you don't want to do it again," tight end Julius Thomas said. "So, it's not that we're dwelling on the Ravens or even if it's about the Ravens. It could have been any team that we lost to. But we do have a fresh reminder of if you don't come out and play your `A' game in this tournament, you're going to lose." Coming off a bye, Denver secured the AFC's top seed with a 34-14 win at Oakland in Week 17. The Chargers, meanwhile, won their last four regular-season games to sneak into the playoffs, and they stayed hot with a 27-10 wild-card win at Cincinnati last Sunday.

San Diego ran for a season-high 196 yards while Philip Rivers completed 12 of 16 passes for a season-low 128 yards with a touchdown and no turnovers. "Going on the road in a playoff game is not going to be easy, regardless of who you're playing," Chargers coach and former Broncos offensive coordinator Mike McCoy said. "We're just worrying about ourselves right now, it's about us, and we're going to keep taking it one week at a time and just keep going, keep plugging away."

The Chargers have run for an average of 170.2 yards during the current five-game win streak and are 10-2 when rushing for more than 102, compared to 0-5 when they don't. It's unclear how much Mathews will be able to contribute, though, after leaving last weekend's game with a lingering ankle injury. With or without Mathews, San Diego is likely to again turn to its ground game early and often in hopes of keeping Manning off the field. Manning, who set NFL single-season passing records with 5,477 yards and 55 touchdowns, will have his full complement of receivers with Wes Welker set to return.

Welker has been out since suffering a concussion Dec. 8 against Tennessee, his second in a four-game span. Despite his absence, Welker finished second in the league with 18 receptions in the red zone, one behind Chargers running back Danny Woodhead. "A lot of times teams will decide to go ahead and double Wes," said teammate Demaryius Thomas, who hauled in 14 TD receptions to rank second in the NFL. "So absolutely, it opens up things for me. If I have single-man coverage, it's something that I definitely enjoy and look forward to. "Wes brings a lot to this offense and we're excited to have him back."

Manning has lost his last three postseason games and is 4-6 in his past 10 overall against the Chargers, including playoff losses during the 2007 and 2008 seasons while with Indianapolis. Rivers has posted a 99.1 quarterback rating in going 6-2 all-time in Denver. "I've always appreciated and look forward to, as a fan of his growing up, to go against a Peyton Manning-led team," Rivers said. "The teams that we've both been on have had awesome games, and games have come down to the wire, overtime playoff games and our two games this year were really tight. "They're a No. 1 seed for a reason. This is a heck of a team and it's rare to play an opponent three times in a season and being a division opponent, one we know well, they know us well. It's going to be awesome."

•PREGAME NOTES: The Broncos are the biggest favorites of the weekend, and this one has the highest total on the board even though both games this season were decided by one score and neither got into the 50s. San Diego is the only team to win in Denver this season. The Bolts have gone 6-2-2 ATS in their last 10 playoff games. The Broncos are 6-1-1 ATS in their last eight against AFC West teams, but both the loss and the push came against San Diego. The Under is 6-2 in the Chargers' last eight games overall, while Denver has pushed four straight playoff games past the closing number.

•KEY STATS
-- SAN DIEGO is 22-9 ATS (+12.1 Units) in road games versus good passing teams with a completion pct. of 61% or better in the second half of the season since 1992.
The average score was SAN DIEGO 24.0, OPPONENT 23.4.

-- SAN DIEGO is 7-1 UNDER (+5.9 Units) versus good passing teams with a completion pct. of 61% or better this season.
The average score was SAN DIEGO 20.8, OPPONENT 19.0.

-- SAN DIEGO is 10-3 UNDER (+6.7 Units) against conference opponents this season.
The average score was SAN DIEGO 23.0, OPPONENT 20.2.

-- SAN DIEGO is 4-18 against the 1rst half line (-15.8 Units) after scoring 25 points or more in 3 straight games since 1992.
The average score was SAN DIEGO 8.1, OPPONENT 12.7.

-- SAN DIEGO is 7-0 UNDER (+7.0 Units) the 1rst half total versus good passing teams with a completion pct. of 61% or better in the second half of the season over the last 2 seasons.
The average score was SAN DIEGO 10.0, OPPONENT 11.0.

-- SAN DIEGO is 6-0 UNDER (+6.0 Units) the 1rst half total versus good offensive teams - averaging >=350 yards/game this season.
The average score was SAN DIEGO 10.2, OPPONENT 10.2.

-- SAN DIEGO is 6-0 UNDER (+6.0 Units) the 1rst half total versus good offensive teams - averaging >=5.65 yards/play this season.
The average score was SAN DIEGO 9.5, OPPONENT 11.8.

-- DENVER is 9-23 ATS (-16.3 Units) versus excellent passing teams with a completion pct. of 64% or better in the second half of the season since 1992.
The average score was DENVER 21.3, OPPONENT 29.3.

-- DENVER is 11-2 ATS (+8.8 Units) versus awful passing defenses - allowing a comp. pct. of 64% or worse over the last 2 seasons.
The average score was DENVER 35.0, OPPONENT 20.7.

-- DENVER is 12-3 ATS (+8.7 Units) versus poor passing defenses - allowing 235 or more passing yards/game over the last 2 seasons.
The average score was DENVER 34.5, OPPONENT 21.2.

-- DENVER is 8-0 ATS (+8.0 Units) off a road win against a division rival over the last 3 seasons.
The average score was DENVER 30.8, OPPONENT 19.3.

-- FOX is 21-4 ATS (+16.6 Units) after 2 consecutive games with a turnover margin of +1 or better in all games he has coached since 1992.
The average score was FOX 24.5, OPPONENT 18.3.

-- DENVER is 14-3 OVER (+10.7 Units) when playing against a team with a winning record over the last 3 seasons.
The average score was DENVER 26.4, OPPONENT 29.4.

-- DENVER is 19-6 OVER (+12.4 Units) versus good offensive teams - averaging >=5.65 yards/play over the last 3 seasons.
The average score was DENVER 29.8, OPPONENT 27.5.

-- DENVER is 10-1 OVER (+8.9 Units) after allowing 99 or less rushing yards in 2 straight games over the last 2 seasons.
The average score was DENVER 33.5, OPPONENT 20.8.

-- DENVER is 16-4 OVER (+11.6 Units) after scoring 25 points or more in 2 straight games over the last 2 seasons.
The average score was DENVER 34.3, OPPONENT 23.4.

-- FOX is 15-4 OVER (+10.6 Units) versus good offensive teams - scoring 24 or more points/game as the coach of DENVER.
The average score was DENVER 29.7, OPPONENT 30.2.

-- FOX is 16-4 UNDER (+11.6 Units) in home games off 2 or more consecutive unders in all games he has coached since 1992.
The average score was FOX 18.1, OPPONENT 16.5.

-- FOX is 18-5 UNDER (+12.5 Units) versus poor kickoff coverage teams, allowing >= 24 yards per return in the second half of the season in all games he has coached since 1992.
The average score was FOX 22.5, OPPONENT 17.3.

-- DENVER is 14-3 against the 1rst half line (+10.7 Units) when playing with 2 weeks or more of rest since 1992.
The average score was DENVER 17.6, OPPONENT 8.5.

-- DENVER is 6-0 against the 1rst half line (+6.0 Units) off a double digit road win over the last 2 seasons.
The average score was DENVER 20.5, OPPONENT 4.0.

-- DENVER is 12-2 against the 1rst half line (+9.7 Units) after 2 or more consecutive wins against the spread over the last 2 seasons.
The average score was DENVER 17.9, OPPONENT 8.4.

-- FOX is 20-5 against the 1rst half line (+14.4 Units) after 2 consecutive games with a turnover margin of +1 or better in all games he has coached since 1992.
The average score was FOX 11.8, OPPONENT 7.8.

-- DENVER is 35-14 OVER (+19.6 Units) the 1rst half total versus excellent punt coverage teams, allowing <= 7.5 yards per return in the second half of the season since 1992.
The average score was DENVER 12.7, OPPONENT 11.2.

-- DENVER is 7-0 UNDER (+7.0 Units) the 1rst half total versus excellent passing teams averaging 260 or more passing yards/game over the last 2 seasons.
The average score was DENVER 12.1, OPPONENT 9.6.

•HEAD-TO-HEAD HISTORY
These two divisional rivals split a pair of meetings with the road team winning each matchup. Denver held off San Diego in November, 28-20 as seven-point favorites, while the Chargers shocked the Broncos in Denver a month later, 27-20 as 10-point underdogs. Each of the two games finished Under the total.

--DENVER is 20-19 against the spread versus SAN DIEGO since 1992.
--DENVER is 25-19 straight up against SAN DIEGO since 1992.
--22 of 43 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL since 1992.

--SAN DIEGO is 24-20 versus the first half line when playing against DENVER since 1992.
--23 of 41 games in this series have gone UNDER THE FIRST HALF TOTAL since 1992.

--Chargers are 10-4-2 ATS in their last 16 meetings.
--Chargers are 6-1-4 ATS in their last 11 meetings in Denver.
--Over is 6-2 in the last 8 meetings in Denver.

--Underdog is 4-1 ATS in their last 5 meetings.
--Road team is 6-0-1 ATS in their last 7 meetings.

•RECENT TRENDS
--Chargers are 5-0 ATS in their last 5 road games vs. a team with a winning home record.
--Under is 4-0 in Chargers last 4 games after allowing more than 250 yards passing.
--Over is 5-0-1 in Chargers last 6 games after accumulating less than 150 yards passing.

--Over is 4-0 in Broncos last 4 playoff games.
--Over is 9-1-1 in Broncos last 11 games after allowing less than 15 points.
--Over is 8-1 in Broncos last 9 home games vs. a team with a winning road record.

•SITUATIONAL ANALYSIS: Play On - Home favorites of 2 to 6 points versus the first half line (DENVER) - good team (outgain opp. by 0.4 to 1 YPP) against an average team (+/- 0.4 YPP) after 8+ games, after gaining 400 or more total yards in their previous game.
ATS W-L Record: 47-17 since 1983. (73.4%, +28.3 units. Rating = 3*)

The average first half line posted in these games was: Team favored by 3.9
The average first half score in these games was: Team 15, Opponent 7.8 (Average first half point differential = +7.2)

The situation's record this season is: (3-1).
Over the last 3 seasons the situation's record is: (7-3).
Over the last 5 seasons the situation's record is: (10-4).
Over the last 10 seasons the situation's record is: (22-6).

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Ivey Walters -
3% San Diego Chargers +9.5

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Ben Burns
Carolina Panthers

[Can'tPickAWinner]

PhillyGodFather

Denver/San Diego Under 54.5

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Nevada Sports Experts

Playoff GOY 5 Units Broncos -9

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Behind the Bets

4* San diego + 10

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Sports Unlimited
5* 7point teaser Seattle and Denver

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Fezzik

2* San Fran -1
2* San Fran Under 43