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Top defenses clash when 49ers visit Panthers Sunday
by Brian Graham

NFC Divisional Playoffs
Kickoff: Sunday, 1:00 p.m. ET
Line: San Francisco -1, Total: 42

The 49ers seek their eighth straight victory on Sunday when they visit a Panthers team that is 11-1 SU (8-3-1 ATS) in its past dozen games, including a 10-9 win at San Francisco on Nov. 10.

The Niners gained a pathetic 151 total yards in that Week 10 loss to Carolina, which countered with only 250 total yards. That improved the Panthers to 15-3 ATS (11-7 SU) all-time in this series, including 7-2 ATS (5-4 SU) at home. This year, they are 7-1 SU (6-1-1 ATS) in Charlotte, where they hold visitors to a paltry 12.0 PPG. But San Francisco's 23-20 win in Green Bay gives the club four straight road victories (3-0-1 ATS), and improves its outstanding road record this season to 7-2 SU (7-1-1 ATS). Its offense has tallied 378 total YPG in its past four contests (three on road), including 159 rushing YPG on 5.2 YPC. The Niners are also 9-1 ATS when facing a top-level team (75%+ win pct.) since 2011, outscoring these elite opponents by an average score of 30 to 18. Not only is Carolina 16-4 ATS after playing its last game on the road under Ron Rivera, but all good NFL teams (60% to 75% win pct.) off an extremely close road win by three points or less, facing a winning team with a line of +3 to -3 are 36-12 ATS (75%) since 1983. Both teams have some injuries of concern for Sunday, as the 49ers could be without CB Carlos Rogers (hamstring) and TE Demarcus Dobbs (knee), while the Panthers have two key players, RB Jonathan Stewart (knee) and DT Colin Cole (calf), who are listed as questionable.

The 49ers are the rare team that has actually scored more points on the road (26.3 PPG) than at home (24.0 PPG) this season. In last week's victory in frigid Green Bay, they ran for 167 yards on just 30 carries (5.6 YPC), and outgained the Packers by 100 yards (381 to 281). San Francisco's ground game has been stellar all season with 139 rushing YPG on 4.4 YPC, thanks mostly to RB Frank Gore, who has 1,194 rushing yards on 296 attempts (4.0 YPC) in his 17 games. Although he had a subpar outing last week (66 yards on 20 carries), Gore was able to score a touchdown for the fourth straight time in a postseason game. For his playoff career, he has compiled 690 total yards and 5 TD in six games, averaging a strong 4.9 yards per carry. QB Colin Kaepernick had another monster postseason performance last week with 325 total yards (227 passing, 98 rushing), improving his playoff record to 3-1. In these four postseason games, Kaepernick has thrown for 256 YPG (9.3 YPA) with 5 TD and 3 INT, while running for 362 yards on an unbelievable 11.3 YPC and three touchdowns. Despite the Panthers' tough run defense, Gore was still able to rush for 82 yards on 16 carries (5.1 YPC) against them while Kaepernick added 16 yards on four rushes. If the duo is not able to run the football, Kaepernick has three talented receivers that can move the ball through the air in TE Vernon Davis and WRs Anquan Boldin and Michael Crabtree. Although Davis and Boldin have combined for 2,104 receiving yards and 21 TD this season, both were shut down in Week 10 versus Carolina, combining for just four receptions for 25 yards and 0 TD. Crabtree didn't play in that game, but he sure made his presence felt last week in Green Bay with eight catches for 125 yards. That gives him 410 receiving yards and 3 TD over four career playoff games, all in the past two seasons. Defensively, the 49ers have been outstanding in all facets this season. They ranked among the top-seven teams in the NFL in scoring defense (17.0 PPG, 3rd), rushing defense (96 YPG, 4th), total defense (317 YPG, 5th), third-down defense (34%, 6th) and passing defense (221 YPG, 7th) during the regular season. San Francisco was able to limit a great Packers offense to 20 points and 281 yards last week, holding them to 3-of-11 conversions on third downs. The Niners run defense has been outstanding all season (3.8 YPC), and has been even better on the road (88 YPG on 3.6 YPC). In the nine away tilts this year, San Francisco has limited host teams to 299 total YPG on 4.9 yards per play. The unit has also forced at least two turnovers in 15-of-17 games this season, totaling 30 takeaways. But the Panthers are not a team that gives up the ball easily.

Carolina has been able to win 11 of its past 12 games because it has committed a total of 10 turnovers during this stretch. QB Cam Newton has completed 63.3% of his passes for 2,494 yards (208 YPG), 7.2 YPA, 18 TD and 8 INT during this 12-game stretch, but has also kept drives alive with his legs this season with 585 rushing yards (5.3 YPC) and six touchdowns. But he was bottled up in the Week 10 win in San Francisco, throwing for just 169 yards on 5.3 YPA, and rushing for a mere 15 yards on eight carries. Despite that lousy performance, Newton helped the Panthers finish the regular season fifth in the NFL in offensive time of possession (31:53), fourth in third-down conversions (44%) and seventh in red-zone efficiency (58% TD rate). But despite having a ball-control, drive-sustaining, TD-converting offense with a limited amount of turnovers, they somehow average only 317 total YPG (26th in NFL) with 22.9 PPG (18th in league). A big part of that has to do with a passing offense that doesn't gain a lot of yards (190 YPG, 29th in NFL) and doesn't get a ton of big plays either (10.4 yards per reception, 23rd in league). Top WR Steve Smith (745 rec. yards, 4 TD) missed the season finale with a knee injury, but he is probable for Sunday. Smith secured six catches for 63 yards against the Niners in Week 10, and he has had some huge performances in his eight career playoff games, totaling 782 receiving yards and 7 touchdowns. TE Greg Olsen led the Panthers in receptions (73), receiving yards (816) and touchdowns (six) this year, but he had just one catch for 14 yards in the win over San Francisco. Carolina's running game has been strong this season (127 YPG, 11th in NFL), and was able to grind out 109 yards on 31 carries (3.5 YPC) in that victory. RB DeAngelo Williams (843 rush yards, 4 TD) led the way with 46 yards on just eight attempts (5.8 YPC), and he may have to carry a bigger workload if Jonathan Stewart (180 rush yards, 3.8 YPC) cannot suit up. On defense, the Panthers are sound in all facets. They finished the regular season with a league-leading 60 sacks, while ranking second in the NFL in scoring defense (15.1 PPG), second in total defense (301 YPG), second in rushing defense (87 YPG) and third in red-zone defense (42% TD rate). Although Carolina allowed opposing quarterbacks to complete 66.6% of their passes (3rd-worst in NFL), the club still finished sixth in passing defense (214 YPG) with more interceptions (20) than touchdowns allowed (17). For the season, the Panthers forced at least one turnover in 15 of 16 games, and tallied 2+ takeaways 10 times, including the win over the Niners.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Broncos seek payback Sunday vs. Chargers
by Brian Graham

AFC Divisional Playoffs
Kickoff: Sunday, 4:40 p.m. ET
Line: Denver -10, Total: 54.5

The sizzling-hot Chargers try to win their fourth straight road game in Sunday's divisional playoff game when they visit the top-seeded Broncos for the second time in a month.

San Diego's 27-10 blowout win at Cincinnati to open the playoffs gives the team at least 26 points in each of five straight wins overall. During that run, the club held a 177 to 18 rushing advantage in its 27-20 upset victory in Denver on Dec. 12. That was the Broncos' lone home loss this year, where they are 5-2-1 ATS and have racked up 39.5 PPG and 456 total YPG. Denver QB Peyton Manning is 9-9 in his playoff career, including 0-2 versus the Chargers, but since joining the Broncos, he has torched San Diego for 300 passing YPG, 12 TD and 3 INT in four meetings. San Diego QB Philip Rivers is a mediocre 4-4 in his playoff career with 244 passing YPG, 9 TD and 9 INT, but he has usually played very well in this series, going 10-6 with 232 passing YPG, 27 TD and 13 INT in his career versus Denver. Since 1992, the Chargers are 19-8 ATS (70%) when the total is at least 49.5 points, and 39-23 ATS (63%) after 3+ straight wins. But the Broncos are 8-0 ATS off a road victory versus a division rival in the past three seasons, and John Fox is 21-4 ATS (84%) after two straight games with a turnover margin of +1 or better as an NFL head coach. San Diego has major injury concerns as top RB Ryan Mathews left last week's game with a recurring ankle ailment and is questionable for this contest. Two key offensive linemen for the Chargers, OT D.J. Fluker (foot) and C Nick Hardwick (stinger) were also injured in the win over the Bengals and are questionable for the game. Denver is pretty healthy after its bye week, with WR Wes Welker (concussion) cleared to play and DE Derek Wolfe (illness) also listed as probable. But C Steve Vallos (concussion), S Duke Ihenacho (concussion) and CB Kayvon Webster (thumb) are all questionable for Sunday's game.

The Chargers offense was very efficient during the regular season, leading the NFL in both time of possession (33:35) and third-down conversions (49%), but in last week's win, they had the ball for just 29:28 and converted only 4-of-12 third downs. San Diego was outgained 439 to 318 by the Bengals, but was able to win easily thanks to a +4 turnover margin. Even with RB Ryan Mathews missing a good part of the second half last week with his ankle injury, the team still rushed for a season-high 196 yards on 40 carries (4.9 YPC). That gives the Chargers 140+ rushing yards in each of the past five games (170 rushing YPG), including 177 yards on 44 carries (4.0 YPC) in the win at Denver on Dec. 12. Mathews had 127 of those yards, but if he cannot play, RB Danny Woodhead and veteran RB Ronnie Brown will look to build on their combined 129 yards on 21 carries (6.1 YPC) last week, including a 58-yard TD scamper from Brown to seal the victory late in the fourth quarter. San Diego should also be able to move the football through the air, as it had the NFL's fourth-best passing attack (271 YPG) during the regular season. QB Philip Rivers has been outstanding in his nine road games this season, completing 72% of his passes for 2,624 yards (292 YPG), 8.8 YPA, 16 TD and 6 INT. He has also thrived in the Denver thin air in his career, going 6-2 and completing 64.4% of his passes for 2,001 yards (250 YPG), 8.9 YPA, 13 TD and 7 INT in his eight career visits to Sports Authority Field. In the Dec. 12 victory there, he threw for only 166 yards, but still tossed a pair of touchdown passes to dynamic rookie WR Keenan Allen. Rivers also leans heavily on Woodhead and TE Antonio Gates, as all three players had more than 70 receptions during the regular season. Gates has had a wonderful career, but his numbers versus the Broncos aren't that special (48 receiving YPG, 6 TD in 19 games). San Diego's defense has done a great job of keeping the Broncos' explosive offense in check this year, holding them to 24.0 PPG on 346 total YPG, which is well below their season averages of 37.9 PPG and 457 total YPG. But this defense still has plenty of holes. Despite being on the field for just 27:42 per game this season, this unit has allowed 371 total YPG, including 107 rushing YPG on 4.5 YPC and 263 passing YPG on 7.5 net YPA. The Chargers have allowed opposing quarterbacks to complete 66% of their passes for 24 touchdowns. These numbers have been even worse on the road where they surrender 399 total YPG on 4.8 YPC and 7.8 net YPA. But the defense has done a great job of forcing turnovers recently, compiling 14 takeaways over the past seven games. San Diego is 6-1 (SU and ATS) when it wins the turnover battle this season, something that is obviously key going up against what is clearly the best offense in the NFL.

The Broncos are known mostly for their passing offense orchestrated by Peyton Manning, but they have been able to run the ball effectively for the most part this season with 12 games of more than 100 rushing yards. Two of the exceptions were against the Chargers though, when they averaged a paltry 51.0 rushing YPG on 3.1 yards per carry. But RB Knowshon Moreno finished the year with 1,038 rushing yards and 10 TD, while adding another 548 yards and 3 TD through the air. In his seven career games in this series, Moreno has rushed for 307 yards on just 70 carries (4.4 YPC), while gaining another 194 through the air. The Broncos have just punished teams with their air attack all season with 340 YPG on 8.3 YPA. Manning is coming off the best statistical season in NFL history, completing 68.3% of his throws for 5,477 yards, 55 TD and only 10 INT. But in his 9-9 playoff career, his numbers are below his lofty standards (292 passing YPG, 7.7 YPA, 31 TD, 21 INT). But in his two seasons with the Broncos, Manning has played 17 home games where he's completed 68.4% of his passes for 5,492 yards (323 YPG), 8.1 YPA, 52 TD and just 10 INT. This includes his 290 passing yards, 3 TD and 2 INT in last year's home playoff loss to Baltimore, which marked the eighth time in Manning's career that he lost his first postseason game. To prevent that from happening again, he will continue to spread the ball between his four talented receivers, WRs Demaryius Thomas (1,430 rec. yards, 14 TD), Eric Decker (1,288 rec. yards, 11 TD) and Wes Welker (778 rec. yards, 10 TD), and TE Julius Thomas (788 rec. yards, 12 TD). Despite all these players catching double-digit TD passes this year, none of these four receivers scored a touchdown in the Week 15 loss to San Diego, as WR Andre Caldwell (200 rec. yards, 3 TD) caught both Manning TD throws that day filling in for the injured Welker. Defensively, the Broncos have had their problems, especially in the red zone where they ranked 25th in the NFL by allowing 62% of their opponents' drives to end in touchdowns. They have stopped the run pretty effectively, ranking among the top-10 teams in the league in both rushing YPG (102) and YPC allowed (3.9), but have been burned through the air for 254 passing YPG (27th in NFL), 6.6 net YPA and 29 touchdowns (T-7th most in league). Denver has also seen a substantial decrease in sacks this year (41 sacks, T-13th in NFL), compared to a league-high-tying 52 sacks last season. The Broncos do have some playmakers on defense though, posting multiple takeaways in half of their games this season, including 15 takeaways in their past nine contests.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

NFL Divisional Weekend trends Bye might not mean Super Bowl
by Marc Lawrence

Once again, after expanding its playoff format to 12 teams in 1990, the NFL left the door wide open to the possibilities of a Wild Card team running the table and hoisting the Lombardi Trophy.

Since the Wild Card system began in 1970, only 10 wild card teams have advanced all the way to the Super Bowl. Of those, only six won the Super Bowl. And of those 10 wild card teams, only four teams managed to win three games on the road to make it to the Super Bowl - the last three of whom captured the crown.

In fact, five of the last seven Super Bowl champions have played in the first round of the playoffs, including the Baltimore Ravens last season.

Will the trend continue this season or will the top seeded teams have their say? And speaking of top ranked teams, the No. 1 seed from the NFC has not won a Super Bowl since 1999.

It’s important to remember that 39 of the last 47 Super Bowl winners have owned a Top 10 ranked defense. (Are you listening Carolina, New Orleans, San Francisco and Seattle?)

Remember, it’s not always the best team that wins in the NFL playoffs… it’s the hottest.

Before we crown anyone just yet, let’s first check a few Divisional Round angles in the NFL playoffs that are noteworthy. All results are since 1990 and are ATS (Against The Spread), unless noted otherwise.

Bye And Large Top Seeds Up To Speed

No. 1 seeds enjoy the luxury of not only hosting a game in this round but also play with an added week of rest.

For the most part these teams have met with modicum of success, going 67-25 SU and 48-42-2 ATS in this role.

The best the NFC has to offer has gone 37-9 SU and 28-17-1 ATS, including 22-8-1 ATS as favorites of 6 or more points. The NFC spotlight shines on top-seeded Seattle this Saturday.

While not up to par with the NFC, top seeds from the AFC have gone 30-16 SU and 20-25-1 ATS, including 7-2 SU and ATS when facing a foe off a Wild Card round spread win of more than 17 points. No. 1 seed Denver will look to improve on those numbers when they host division rival San Diego on Sunday.

Success Breeds Success

Speaking of the added benefit of an extra week to prepare this time of the year, rested hosts in this round that enjoyed success last season use that experience to their advantage.

That’s confirmed by the fact that teams that won 11 or more games last year are 32-6 SU and 24-13-1-1 ATS at home with a week to prepare in Divisional Round contests.

Denver, New England and Seattle all fit the bill this season, rather cautiously though as teams in this role are just 8-4 SU and 4-8 ATS the last seven years.

On the flip side, teams that were losing teams last years (seven or fewer wins) are just 4-24 SU and 11-16-1 ATS in this round, including 1-13 SU and 3-11 ATS when playing off an upset, underdog win.

New Orleans and San Diego look to oblige this week.

Clint Eastwood Says

Here’s a brief capsule of this year’s Divisional Round combatants along with some relevant Good, Bad and Ugly trends…

New Orleans at Seattle (-8, 47.5)
Good: Seahawks 15-1 SU and 12-4 ATS home behind QB Russell Wilson
Bad: Saints 1-5 SU and ATS away all-time in the playoffs
Ugly: Seahawks 0-3 SU and ATS vs. Saints when New Orleans off SU and ATS win

Indianapolis at New England (-7.5, 53)
Good: Colts QB Andrew Luck 6-1 SU and ATS as a dog vs. greater than .667 opp
Bad: Visiting team 5-13 ATS in Colts postseason games
Ugly: Pats QB Tom Brady 0-6 ATS playoffs w/rest vs. opp off back-to-back wins

San Francisco at Carolina (+2, 42)
Good: Niners QB Colin Kaepernick 7-1 SU and 7-0-1 ATS away vs. non div opp
Bad: Playoff road favorites off playoff road favorite win are 1-3 ATS
Ugly: Niners are 3-15 ATS all-time vs. Panthers, 0-5 ATS last five away

San Diego at Denver (-10, 54.5)
Good: Chargers QB Phillip Rivers 4-1 ATS as a playoff dog
Bad: Broncos 2-6 SU and ATS last eight playoff games
Ugly: Broncos QB Peyton Manning 1-6 ATS home favorite vs. San Diego

Highway Blues

Life on the road for Wild Card round teams who won at home has been rocky at best, especially if those who grabbed the cash as well.

These highwaymen are just 13-37 SU and 18-30-2 ATS in this role against well-rested higher-seeded foes.

And if these same Wild Card winners take to the road against .750 or less opponents, they dip to a filthy 3-24 SU and 8-18-1 ATS in these affairs.

Indianapolis will try its best to avoid becoming road kill this week.

Stat Of The Week

In NFL Divisional Round playoff game history since 1990, there have been only two home underdogs. They both won the game straight up.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

NFL weather report: An early look at Divisional Weekend

If you thought the frigid weather had an affect on last weekend's games, just wait till you see what's on tap for all four games of the NFL's Divisional Round this Saturday and Sunday. It may not be as cold, but watch out for plenty of wind, rain and maybe a little more snow.

San Francisco 49ers at Carolina Panthers (Pick'em, 42)

There is a 54 percent chance of rain with temperatures in the mid 50s. There will be a seven mph wind blowing across the field.

San Diego Chargers at Denver Broncos (-9.5, 54)

There is a 14 percent chance of snow with temperatures in the low 40s. There will be a seven mph wind blowing across the field.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

NFL Injury Report: Two injuries undervalued by oddsmakers

The NFL playoffs are in the second round as teams move closer towards making the Superbowl. Here are some notable injuries that may have an impact on the scoreboard.

Steve Smith, WR, Carolina Panthers (Knee, Questionable)

The Panthers have been fantastic defensively all season and the team’s +11 turnover ratio is a huge reason why they locked up a first round bye. Despite his age, Smith has proven once again that he’s capable of being a high-impact wide receiver. Over 15 regular season games Smith had 64 receptions for 745 yards and four touchdowns, ranking him second on the team in receptions, total yards, and touchdowns. Carolina will be missing their star player and motivator Saturday hosting a 49ers team coming off a high defeating Green Bay on the road.

The Panthers are 1-point home favorite over San Francisco. The total is 42.

Eric Weddle, S, San Diego Chargers (Hamstring, Questionable)

The Chargers travel to Denver facing a Broncos team ranked first in points scored, passing yards and total yards. Safety Eric Weddle leads the Chargers in combined tackles with 115 and interceptions with two. The Chargers weakness of pressuring the quarterback and getting sacks may come back to haunt them against a Broncos team who has 75 percent of their offensive touchdowns coming through the air (55/73). Even though the Chargers and Broncos split their regular season series win total, oddsmakers don’t feel the post-season match up will be close.

The Chargers are 9-point road underdogs against the Broncos. The total is 54.5.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

49ers at Panthers: What bettors need to know

San Francisco 49ers at Carolina Panthers (Pick, 41)

Two of the league's hottest teams will square off when the second-seeded Carolina Panthers host the San Francisco 49ers on Sunday with a berth in the NFC Championship Game at stake. It's a rematch of a Week 10 battle in San Francisco, a defensive duel in which the Panthers prevailed 10-9 as part of an eight-game winning streak and an 11-1 finish to close the regular season. The 49ers have ripped off seven consecutive victories and are seeking their third straight trip to the NFC title game.

Cam Newton, the top overall pick in the 2011 draft, has Carolina in the postseason for the first time in five years, but he has been overshadowed by fellow third-year Colin Kaepernick. San Francisco advanced to the Super Bowl last season behind Kaepernick, who had the worst game of his pro career against the Panthers in November. "They got us the first time," 49ers linebacker NaVorro Bowman said. "What’s on our minds is to get them now. It’s the playoffs. Win or go home."

TV: 1:05 p.m., Fox.

LINE: This game opened as a Pick. The total has dropped to 41 from the opening 43.5.

WEATHER: Temperatures will be in the low-50s with clear skies. Wind will blow across the field at 6 mph.

ABOUT THE 49ERS (13-4): Wide receiver Michael Crabtree missed the first matchup against Carolina while recovering from surgery on his Achilles' tendon, but he offered a reminded of what an impact player he can be with eight catches for 125 yards in last week's 23-20 win at frigid Green Bay. Tight end Vernon Davis also was a non-factor in the earlier meeting after suffering a second-quarter concussion, but he reeled in a 28-yard scoring pass last week for his sixth TD reception in six postseason games. Having the duo on the field should make life easier for running back Frank Gore and Kaepernick, who was held to 91 yards passing by the Panthers. The 49ers have yet to allow a 100-yard rusher this season, but are giving up an average of 21.3 points in the last three games after holding nine of the previous 11 opponents to 17 points or fewer.

ABOUT THE PANTHERS (12-4): Newton threw for his lowest yardage total (3,379) in his three seasons but established career highs in touchdowns (24) and completion percentage (61.7) while showing his mettle at crunch time by directing four game-winning drives. Newton is also an integral part of a running game that features DeAngelo Williams as well as contributions from Mike Tolbert and Jonathan Stewart, who expects to play for the first time in a month. A major concern is the status of veteran wide receiver Steve Smith's sprained left knee, with Panthers coach Ron Rivera admitting after Thursday's practice that Smith was not his "normal self." These is little concern over a defense - led by Greg Hardy, Charles Johnson and tackling machine Luke Kuechly - that registered a league-high 60 sacks and allowed the second-fewest points per game (15.1).

TRENDS:

* Over is 4-1 in the last five meetings in Carolina.
* 49ers are 3-13 ATS in their last 16 meetings.
* 49ers are 4-1 ATS in their last five Divisional Playoffs games.
* Panthers are 6-0-1 ATS in their last seven home games.

EXTRA POINTS:

1. The Panthers are 7-1 at home, with the only loss coming to Seattle 12-7 in Week 1.

2. Crabtree has 28 catches and three touchdowns in his last four postseason games.

3. Kaepernick has 362 rushing yards in four playoff games for San Francisco, which can tie Pittsburgh for the most championship game appearances (15) since 1970 with a win.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Chargers at Broncos: What bettors need to know

San Diego Chargers at Denver Broncos (-8.5, 54)

Peyton Manning and the Denver Broncos get a chance to avenge their only home loss when they host the sixth-seeded San Diego Chargers in the AFC divisional round on Sunday. Manning guided Denver to the top seed behind a record-setting offense that surpassed 600 points for the first time in league history. The Broncos were held under 30 points only three times and two of them came against the Chargers, who lost a 28-20 decision in San Diego before pulling out a 27-20 win in Denver on Dec. 12.

Manning set league single-season records for touchdowns (55) and yards (5,477) but he is trying to end a streak of three straight postseason defeats, including a 38-35 loss in double overtime last season when the Broncos were also the No. 1 seed. Chargers quarterback Philip Rivers is 6-2 in his career in Denver and is relishing the matchup with Manning. "I've always appreciated and look forward to, as a fan of his growing up, to go against a Peyton Manning-led team," Rivers said. "It's going to be awesome."

TV: 4:40 p.m., CBS.

LINE: The Broncos opened -10 and are now -8.5. The total opened 54.5 and is down to 54.

WEATHER: Temperatures will be in the high-30s with a 13 percent chance of snow. Wind will blow across the field at 20 mph.

ABOUT THE CHARGERS (10-7): San Diego ran its winning streak to five games with a 27-10 win at No. 3 seed Cincinnati last weekend, but enter Sunday's matchup with major concerns about running back Ryan Mathews' availability. Mathews averaged 118.3 yards in the final four games of the regular season, including 127 in the victory over the Broncos that helped the Chargers control the ball for more than 38 minutes, but he aggravated an ankle injury in the third quarter last week and did not return. Rivers put up pedestrian numbers against the Bengals (12-of-16, 128 yards, 1 TD), but he completed a league-high 69.5 percent of his passes during the regular season. San Diego's defense ranked 29th in passing yards allowed (258.7 yards) but limited opponents to an average of 16.3 points over the last six games.

ABOUT THE BRONCOS (13-3): Wide receiver Wes Welker returns to the lineup after missing the past two games with a concussion, giving Manning his full array of weapons - Denver is the only team in history to have five players score at least 10 touchdowns. Manning threw for 330 yards and four TDs - three to Demaryius Thomas - in the first matchup with the Chargers, but he was held shut down after scoring on the opening possession of the second half. Eric Decker established career highs in yards (1,288) and receptions (87) while tight end Julius Thomas hauled in 12 scoring passes, including a 74-yarder at San Diego. Knowshon Moreno yielded more playing time to rookie running back Montee Ball down the stretch, but the onus will be on a defense that allowed 24.9 points and 254.4 passing yards per game.

TRENDS:

* Over is 6-2 in the last eight meetings in Denver.
* Chargers are 4-1 ATS in their last five games overall.
* Broncos are 6-1-1 ATS in their last eight vs. AFC West.
* Over is 4-0 in Broncos last 4 playoff games.

EXTRA POINTS:

1. Manning is 9-11 in the postseason and has lost his first game on eight occasions.

2. San Diego led the league with 39 10-play drives during the regular season and had two more for TDs in last week's win at Cincinnati.

3. Manning (5,679) needs 177 yards to surpass Joe Montana and Brett Favre for the second-highest total in postseason history behind Tom Brady (5,949).

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Divisional Round Tale of the Tape: 49ers at Panthers
By MONIQUE VÁG

The Panthers host the 49ers in a rematch of the regular season defensive battle where the Panthers came out on top 10-9.

Check out the matchup in our betting tale of the tape.

Offense

The 49ers are coming off a victory on the road against Green Bay in the Wild Card round. The 49ers finished the regular season ranked third in rushing yards averaging 137.6 and 11th in points scored with 25.4 (11th). Quarterback Colin Kaepernick completed 243-of-416 passes with a 58.4 percent completion percentage and had 21 TDs and eight INTs. The 49ers showed continued success rushing the ball into the postseason, putting up 167 yards last week. Colin Kaepernick had 227 yards and completed 16 of his 30 attempted passes (53.3 percent). Kaepernick was the leading rusher with 98 yards on seven attempts with a long of 42 yards.

The Panthers offense have shown great ability to rush the ball as well averaging 126.6 yards per game. The Panthers have completed 44 percent of their third down conversion attempts (91-for-208) and 77 percent of fourth down attempts (10-for-13). DeAngelo Williams has been the Panthers leading rusher with 201 attempts for 843 yards and three touchdowns. Quarterback Cam Newton is tied for the most touchdowns on the team (six) and has rushed for 585 yards on 111 attempts. Newton has an 88.8 quarterback rating and completed 292 of his 473 pass attempts (61.7 percent).

Edge: 49ers

Defense

The 49ers have a defense ranked no worse than seventh in points allowed, passing yards, rushing yards and total yards. The 49ers have eight players with 40 or more combined tackles lead by NaVorro Bowman with 145 tackles and fumbles recovered with four. Aldon Smith and Ahmad Brooks lead the team in sacks as both tallied 8.5. The 49ers are hoping Aldon Smith is healthy enough to give their pass rush a much needed lift.

The Panthers are no worse than sixth in points allowed, passing yards, rushing yards and total yards. 2012 Defensive Rookie of the Year Luke Kuechly is showing continued success leading the team in combined tackles with 156 and interceptions with four. The Panthers have two defensive players this year with over 10 sacks including defensive end Greg Hardy, who ranks third in the NFL with 15.

Edge: Panthers

Special Teams

The 49ers are averaging 22.7 yards on kick returns ranking them 18th and they average 8.9 yards on punt returns (17th). The 49ers have shown some explosiveness returning kicks with two runs of over 40 yards including a long of 47. LaMichael James was San Francisco's leader in kick returns with 12 returns for 321 yards averaging 26.8 yards per return. James had 23 punt returns averaging 10.9. Kicker Phil Dawson in the regular season went 32-for-36 in field goals with a long of 56 yards.

The Panthers are averaging 21.9 yards on the kick return ranking them 24th and are ranked 12th in punt returns averaging 10.5 yards. Ted Ginn had 26 punt returns averaging 12.2 yards and was Carolina's leading kick returner with 25 returns for 595 yards averaging 23.8 a return. Kicker Graham Gano was 24-for-27 on field goals with a long of 55 yards.

Edge: 49ers

Notable Quotable

“I mean, the guy’s played in a few big games, I think, in his career and seems to do pretty well in them. We don’t get too wrapped up in what everybody else thinks. If we worried about that, we sure wouldn’t be sitting here getting ready to be hosting a divisional round game, if we really got too concerned with what everybody predicted. It’s just not a really big priority around here.” - Panthers tight end Greg Olsen on quarterback Cam Newton's ability to play in high pressure games.

"A lot of people talk about different things for receivers, 40-times or three-cones, how fast they run around the little orange cones, etcetera, but pretty darn important to catch the ball for a receiver. I just have never personally seen anybody catch the ball better than Michael Crabtree does." - 49ers coach Jim Harbaugh following the 49ers win in Green Bay.

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Divisional Round Tale of the Tape: Chargers at Broncos
By MONIQUE VÁG

The Broncos and Chargers square off for the third time this season on Sunday for a chance to play in the AFC Championship game.

Check out our match up in the betting tale of the tape.

Offense

The Chargers offensively put up the fourth most passing yards averaging 270.5 and fifth most total yards with 393.3. In the regular season San Diego showed success moving the chains completing 49 percent of their third down conversion attempts and 5-of-6 (83 percent) of their fourth down attempts. The Chargers dominated the time of possession averaging 33:35 a game. Running back Ryan Matthews notched six touchdowns and 1,255 yards over 285 attempts. Rookie Keenan Allen was the Chargers leading receiver with 71 catches for 1,046 yards. Quarterback Philip Rivers has a regular season QB rating of 105.5, completing 69.5 percent of his passes and put up a 32 TDs and 11 INTs.

The Broncos are coming off a record-setting season scoring 606 points for an average of 37.9 per game. The Broncos have completed 46 percent of their third down attempts and 89 percent of their fourth down conversion attempts (8-of-9). Knowshon Moreno leads the Broncos in rushing with 241 attempts for 1,038 yards and 10 touchdowns. Demaryius Thomas averaged 15.5 yards a reception with 92 receptions and 1,430 yards and Eric Decker put up 1,288 yards from 87 receptions and 11 touchdowns. Manning put up a 115.1 regular season quarterback rating completing 68.3 percent of his passes with an unbelievable 55 TDs to just 10 INTs.

Edge: Broncos

Defense

Despite the Chargers not-so-impressive statistical defense, their defense played a key role in the Wild Card victory holding the Bengals to zero points in the second half. The Chargers defense stepped up when it mattered, holding Cincy to completing 3-of-12 (25 percent) of their third down attempts and 1-of-3 (33 percent) of their fourth down conversion attempts. Safety Eric Weddle has been the Chargers best defensive player with 115 combined tackles, one sack and two interceptions.

Outside linebacker Danny Trevathan lead the Broncos in tackles with 129 in the regular season. Trevathan accumulated two sacks, three forced fumbles and three interceptions in the regular season. Shaun Phillips found success pressuring quarterbacks with 35 tackles and 10 sacks. The Broncos defense has been successful in stopping the rush allowing only 101.6 yards per game, which ranks them eighth.

Edge: Broncos

Special Teams

Punter Mike Scifres averages 43.2 yards and has kicked 30-of-56 punts inside the 20. Keenan Allen had 15 punt returns on the year averaging 8.3 yards per return. Running back Danny Woodhead has been the primary return man for San Diego with 12 returns for 262 yards and an average of 21.8 yards. Kicker Nick Novak made 34-of-37 field goals making 9-of-9 from 40-49 yards and 2-of-2 from 50 yards.

Punter Britton Colquitt averages 44.5 yards per punt and has kicked 23-of-65 punts inside the 20. Trindon Holiday returned 32 punts averaging 8.5 yards per return including a long of 81 yards and one touchdown. Holliday averages 27.7 yards per return including 28 returns for 775 yards and a long of 105 yards with one touchdown. Kicker Matt Prater had the highest percentage of made field goals kicking 25-of-26 for 96 percent. He has been perfect (8-for-8) from 40-49 yards and 6-for-7 from 50 or more yards.

Edge: Broncos

Notable Quotable

"We won 13 games this year so I don't know what you consider us if you consider them a hot team. We went on our streaks here and there, we had our bumps in the road and I think that's made us a better team. We faced a lot of adversity this year and now it's time to put up or shut up." - Broncos Terrance Knighton on the importance of post-season efforts.

"We know them, they know us, personnel-wise. It's going to be a great game and great battle. We held them to 28 and 20 points in both games. You never know. It could be a shootout, or it could be a low-scoring game. That's the great thing about the playoffs." - Chargers Eric Weddle on the Chargers and Broncos history.

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Where the action is: Sunday's Divisional line moves

The second and final Divisional Round games are set to go Sunday. The NFC picture will be cleared up as the Carolina Panthers host the San Francisco 49ers. In the AFC, the San Diego Chargers will travel to Denver to face Peyton Manning and the Broncos.

We talk to oddsmakers about all of the betting action coming in on both of these postseason showdowns.

San Francisco 49ers at Carolina Panthers - Open: Pick

Books opened this line anywhere from a Pick to Carolina +2.5. Most shops have seen each team spend a little time on either side of the Pick number throughout the week, and the line at most outlets is currently a Pick. The two teams met back in Week 10 with the Panthers prevailing by a score of 10-9.

"Balanced action from both sharps and public on this massive volume game," an oddsmaker from betdsi tells Covers. "The line has moved all over the place with both teams spending time as the favorite and the dog during the week. Currently the line is sitting at a Pick with a small juice factor favoring the 49ers. That line will probably stay there barring any other strong moves from sharps or from overwhelming public volume come kick off."

The Total has been coming down since post, where most books opened it 43 or 43.5. Seeing as how the two teams combined for 19 points in Week 10, bettors are in love with the Under.

"We bumped this total down from 42 to 41.5 yesterday and I believe we won't have to move this total again as action at the 41.5 is absolutely dead even," said Michael Stewart of CarbonSports.ag.

"This will be biggest NFL decision of the weekend, as 80 percent of cash is on San Francisco and 59 percent of cash is on the Under," says Mike Perry of Sportsbook.ag.

San Diego Chargers at Denver Broncos - Open: -9.5, Move: -8.5

This will be the third time these two AFC West-rivals will square off this season. They split the first two meetings both SU and ATS, with both scorelines finishing under the closing total.

The majority of books opened this either Denver -9.5 or -10 but San Diego money has moved the line to a position where solid two-way action has been coming in.

"We are currently sitting at the -9 value on this game favoring the Broncos," says betdsi's oddsmaker. "There is a distinct public vs. sharp split on this match up with sharp betting action backing the Chargers at the +9.5 number as well as the Chargers moneyline at the +350 value. Bet count favors the Broncos at this point, but money wagered actually is a small lean towards the Chargers on the strength of the larger unit plays from sharp players."

The early meetings between the two teams yielded Unders in both games and sharps backed the under as soon as the total was available.

"We went from 56 to 55, going to 55 on Tuesday as sharp money bet under 56 and 55.5," Stewart says. "Since going to 55 we've seen a lot more money come in on the over and I believe we'll be going back to 55.5 at some point later today, or very first thing tomorrow morning."

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English Breakfast: Premier League betting cheat sheet

Premier League action continues with a pair of matches on the board Sunday.

Newcastle United v Manchester City (+400, +300, -138)

Why bet Newcastle: If Newcastle is serious about competing for European spots, home wins are a must. Yes, Manchester City is as good as it gets, but the Citizens are very different away from home. The Magpies have 18 points from 10 home matches this season, which is a very good return.

Key players out/doubtful: Mathieu Debuchy, Ryan Taylor, Fabricio Coloccini

Why bet Manchester City: The Citizens will want to get back to the top-perch of the Premier League table, as they are now two points back of Chelsea. They are the hottest team in the league at the moment and have won five-straight league matches.

Key players out/doubtful: Sergio Agüero, Jack Rodwell, Stevan Jovetic

Previous meeting result: Manchester City 4, Newacastle 0

Key betting note: City have played over the 2.5 goal total in 13 of its last 16 Premier League games.


Stoke v Liverpool (+450, +320, -150)

Why bet Stoke: The Potters play extremely well against Liverpool on their home ground. They have won three and haven't lost any of the last five meetings with Liverpool at the Britannia Stadium. They are battling to stick around in the top 10, so home points are vital at this stage.

Key players out/doubtful: Oussama Assaidi, Asmir Begovic, Andy Wilkinson

Why bet Liverpool: The Reds still have some injury concerns to deal with but could be set to welcome back both Steven Gerrard and Daniel Sturridge to the side. Their away form has let them down of late, and Stoke is a tough place for any side to leave with points. However, so long as Luis Suarez is leading the line, the Reds can beat anyone.

Key players out/doubtful: Jon Flanagan, Daniel Agger, Joe Allen, José Enrique

Previous meeting result: Liverpool 1, Stoke 0

Key betting note: The Potters are unbeaten in their last seven home matches.

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Brenton Ayton

Soccer
Manchester City (England Premier League) 1.70

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Spartan

dime play: Panthers/Niners Under 42