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Premium Plays
Matchup: Denver at Utah
Time: 9:05 PM EDT (Mon)
Play: Utah (+4 -105)
Line Source: 5dimes
Posted on: January 13, 2014 @ 11:26:09 AM EST
3* Bailout Blowout on Jazz +
We are getting a lot of value on the Jazz as an underdog at home in this matchup with Denver. I think the oddsmakers have overvalued the Nuggets based on their recent win streak. Utah is also on a nice run winning three of their last five games and covering the spread in four of their last six games. Utah should have no problem getting points on the board against Denver. The Nuggets have allowed an average of 103.5 points per game against division opponents this season. In head-to-head matchups between these teams the Jazz have dominated the series when they are playing at home. Utah is 30-7 straight up against Denver since 1996. These teams also met last month in Denver and the Jazz picked up a 10 point win on the road. Utah is 11-5 ATS in their last 16 games when coming off a double-digit loss at home, and they are 4-1 ATS in their last five games following an ATS loss. This matchup fits into a very profitable system to play on home underdogs like Utah when they have a losing record on the season, but are extremely well rested playing five or less games in the last 14 days. This system is 41-18 (70%) against the spread over the last five seasons. You should also play against road teams like Denver when they are coming off a home win by 10 points or more and they are revenging a home loss of 10 points or more against their opponent. This system is 161-100 (62%) against the spread.
Guaranteed Plays
Matchup: Houston at Boston
Time: 7:35 PM EDT (Mon)
Play: Houston (-5.5 -108)
Line Source: 5dimes
Posted on: January 13, 2014 @ 11:26:09 AM EST
5* NBA Non-Conference Game of the Month on the Rockets -
The Celtics are in a horrible slump right now. They have lost 11 of their last 12 games. Boston is coming off a five game road trip, and I think they will have a bad letdown performance in their first game back home. This will be Boston’s eighth game in the New Year, while Houston is playing in just their fifth game of 2014. I like the Rockets to easily cover this spread with such a favorable rest profile. Over their last five games Boston has surrendered 114 points per game. They will have a hard time improving on that number in this matchup since the Rockets are third in the league in scoring with 105.3 points per game. Houston also has a big advantage on the boards with a +4 figure in rebounding margin. The Celtics on the other hand have a -2 figure in rebounding margin this season. This matchup fits into a very profitable system to fade the Celtics. You should play against underdogs like Boston when they are revenging a loss of 10 points or more against their opponent, and they are coming off two consecutive road games where they covered the spread but still lost straight up as an underdog. This system is 54-22 (71%) against the spread.
BANKROLL SPORTS 10* West Virginia Mountaineers -5.5 (CBB) 5* Virginia @ Duke Ovr 32 (CBB) 5* Bucks @ Raptors Over 186 (NBA) 3* UL Layfayette Ragin Cajuns -9.5 (CBB) 2* Syracuse @ Boston College Over 133 (CBB)
Regulation only. How do you get shut out five times in eight games? The Flames scored four times in Colorado on 19 shots on goal on January 6. Take out that poor performance by J.S. Giguere and Calgary has scored two goals in seven other games. In fact, Calgary has scored one goal or fewer in seven of their past eight games and they have one goal in their past three games. In all the years of watching this sport, we’ve never witnessed a team with such a lack of production or scoring chances. In 45 games, Calgary has two players that have 20 points or more.
4The Hurricanes will lose this game if they don’t show up it’s hard to envision that when victories in this league are not easy to come by. Carolina is right in the thick of the log-jam in the East for the final three or four playoff spots and a win here moves them up three spots in the standings. Should Carolina win they would leapfrog over both New Jersey and Ottawa and tie the Maple Leafs for ninth place in the East, just a point behind both Detroit and Philadelphia. This is actually a crucial game for the ‘Canes because a loss would be devastating. The Hurricanes are playing their best hockey of the season with five wins in six games and losing to this reeling visitor is not an option.
COLUMBUS -½ +141 over Tampa Bay
Regulation only. What a great spot for the Jackets. Tampa Bay will play this game with a depleted lineup and minus their #1 goaltender Ben Bishop. That leaves one of the worst goaltenders in the NHL, Anders Lindback to try and stave off one of the hottest teams in the game. Lindback is a Predators castoff that is sporting a brutal save percentage of .881 in 15 games. That is the worst mark in the NHL for any goaltender that has made 10 appearances or more. Additionally, the Bolts will play their seventh straight game in which they’ve had to travel. On January 1, Tampa embarked on a four game trip through Vancouver, Calgary, Edmonton and Winnipeg. They returned home for one game against Washington before flying to Philadelphia the next day. That’s equivalent to a seven-game road trip.
Columbus is coming on big time. They’ve won four of five with only loss over that span occurring against the Blue Notes. The Jackets have scored 13 goals over their past three games while surrendering just six. The Blue Jackets have won five of their past six games against the East and the home side in this series has won seven of the past eight. This is a strong situational play for the Jackets against weak goaltending and it’s also worth noting that the Bolts have a much bigger game up next tomorrow at Madison Square Gardens.
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