1-15-14

[Can'tPickAWinner]

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Exposing the Top 25 Where the polls went wrong

Each week throughout the college basketball season, Jesse Schule will dissect the new Top 25 rankings, looking for betting value. He'll showcase the most overrated team, along with the most underrated ranked team, and an unranked squad that he feels should be in the Top 25.

Most Underrated Top 25 Team - Creighton Bluejays (14-2 SU, 9-3 ATS)

The Bluejays might not be getting as much credit as they deserve, simply because they have yet to face a ranked opponent. That doesn't mean they haven't played any tough teams though, they've defeated the likes of Xavier, Marquette, Seton Hall, DePaul and California.

Creighton is undefeated with a 4-0 record in the Big East, and senior forward Doug McDermott is second in the NCAA in scoring, averaging 25 points per game. The Bluejays will face a tough test next week when they visit Villanova.

Most Overrated Top 25 Team - Gonzaga Bulldogs (14-3 SU, 7-7-1 ATS)

The Bulldogs are coming off a loss on the road to the unranked Portland Pilots by a score of 82-73. Their 14-3 record is even less impressive when you consider that they haven't faced a Top 25 team, and most of those wins have come against weak opposition. Kevin Pangos leads the team in scoring averaging 17.1 points per game, but he's been held below that number in each of his last five starts.

With three more road games, and a home meeting with BYU coming up in the final two weeks of January, there could be trouble ahead for the Bulldogs.

Unranked Team That Should Be Ranked - Xavier (12-3 SU, 9-4 ATS)

The Musketeers lost in a close game on the road at Creighton on Sunday, and they fall to 3-1 versus the Big East. They are currently tied with Georgetown in the conference standings, but they will host the Hoyas on Wednesday night.

With a 12-0 home record so far, you have to like the Musketeers chances of moving up in the rankings.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Basketball bettors beware Heat's lack of motivation
by Chase Ruttig

The Miami Heat treat the regular season like a child in the backseat, five minutes into a five-hour car drive to Disney Land.

Are we there yet?

Except, the five-hour drive is an 82-game schedule. And Disney Land is the NBA Playoffs.

After winning back-to-back titles and posting a 27-game winning streak in 2012-13, Miami has little motivation to prove anything during the regular season - something that has NBA bettors questioning their wagers on the world champs.

The Heat, at 16-21 ATS (27-10 SU), have lost back-to-back games three times already this season – something that only happened three times total last year - and have plenty of key players, including LeBron James and Dwyane Wade, nursing injuries. Those are big reasons why head coach Erik Spoelstra gave his troops an unheard of full two days off following a double-overtime loss to Brooklyn Friday.

With a soft schedule ahead – at Washington, at Philadelphia, at Charlotte, at Atlanta, vs. Boston, vs. L.A Lakers – could there be more value in betting against the Heat as they yawn their way to the postseason?

All the interview photo bombs and silly "nickname" jerseys may not be enough to make Miami interested.

Weak against the weak

Miami's most concerning stat is their SU record playing sub .500 teams. Of their 10 losses on the season, half of those have come to teams with losing records.

Struggles to beat inferior opponents have also contributed to their sub .500 record ATS, burning bettors laying huge piles of chalk to play the champs. Blown covers against Sacramento, Orlando and Philadelphia prove the Heat are playing down to their competition.

Home woes

Where the Heat have struggled the most is at home. In South Beach, the Heat's ATS record is 7-12 while compared to a 9-9 ATS mark on the road. It seems that the Heat do better with the motivation of playing in enemy territory. But only slightly.

Injuries mounting

Part of the Heat's desire to conserve energy may just be a survival tactic. The miles of three straight Finals runs are already catching up to Wade, and PG Mario Chalmers and SF Shane Battier are also missing time.

You can't blame Spoelstra for limiting the minutes of veterans who need to remain healthy for the playoffs. Wade and Battier are both probable to play against Washington Wednesday, but expect Spoelstra to continue to monitor their minutes.

Soft slate ahead

The next six games are incredibly soft for the Heat, featuring a slate in which five of the six teams are below .500 (Atlanta is 20-18). With the Heat struggling to beat teams holding losing records – let alone cover - there is value to be found in these pending games.

Miami may be looking toward high-profile games at the end of the month against San Antonio and Oklahoma City. If bettors can spot which teams will hang tough with an uninspired Heat squad, there should be plenty of value on the board with Miami commanding some hefty spreads.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

NCAAB betting: Mid-major programs cashing in for bettors

Yardbarker Colin Haley recently opined on five mid-major teams having breakout seasons:
Wichita State
Massachusetts
Toledo
Alabama-Birmingham
Boise State.
But his ratings were based solely on SU results.

How about at the betting window?

Wichita State (17-0 SU) 10-3-1 ATS (sixth nationally)
UMass (14-1 SU) at 9-6 ATS
Toledo (13-2 SU) not too bad a bet at 6-3-1 ATS.

Not quite so noteworthy:
UAB (11-4 SU, 6-5 ATS)
Boise State (11-5 SU, 4-7 ATS).

Several more mid-majors rate in the top 10 nationally at the betting window:
IUPU-Fort Wayne (14-5 SU) at 10-3-2 ATS (third)
Xavier (13-4 SU) at 11-4 ATS (fourth)
Pepperdine (11-7 SU) at 11-4 ATS (seventh)
Cleveland State (10-8 SU) at 10-4-1 ATS (eighth)
Harvard (14-2 SU) at 8-2 ATS (10th).

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Australian Open betting tidbits: Day 4

Day 4 of the Australian Open features five matches with Top 10 players and we dug up some essential betting tidbits for those and more of the day's action.

Rafael Nadal (1) v Thanasi Kokkinakis

- Nadal should be well rested, his First Round opponent Bernard Tomic, retired after the first set.
- Kokkinakis is the youngest player in the field at 17-years-old and this is just his third top level match.

Dusan Lajovic v Kei Nishikori (16)

- Lajovic needed to win three qualifying matches just to get into the men's draw.
- This has been Nishikori's best Grand Slam event, advancing to at least the third round the last three years.

Milos Raonic (11) v Victor Hanescu

- Ranoic hit 25 aces in his First Round match, the fastest was recorded at 226 km/hour.
- In his 10 previous appearances at the Aussie Open, Hanescu has never made it past the Second Round.

Roberto Bautista-Agut v Juan Martin Del Potro (5)

- Bautista-Agut got through his opening round match in straight sets and with only one unforced error.
- Del Potro won just 20 percent of first serve return points in his First Round match.

Andy Murray (4) v Vincent Millot

- The three time Aussie Open runner up Murray, won his First Round match in just one hour 27 minutes.
- This is Millots first time in the Aussie Open since 2011 and his first time past the First Round.

Jo-Wilfried Tsonga (10) v Thomaz Bellucci

- Tsonga has defeated Bellucci in the pairs only two meetings.
- Bellucci's opening round opponent, Julian Reister retired after the third set, trailing two sets to one.

Marin Cilic v Gilles Simon (18)

- The unranked Cilic has advanced to at least the Third Round in his last five Aussie Opens.
- Simon got a First Round scare from Daniel Brands in a 4.5-hour five setter, which included a 16-14 final set.

Blaz Kavcic v Roger Federer (6)

- In Kavcic's first match he was up 2-0 in the fourth set, down two sets to one, when Radek Stepanek retired.
- Federer has been ousted in the Aussie Open Semi-finals in the last three years.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

WINNING POINTS

PRO BASKETBALL

Chicago over *Orlando by 3
The good news for Chicago is the recent strong play of center Joakim Noah, who has
got the Bulls playing strong defense again.
CHICAGO 87-84.

Miami over *Washington by 7
LeBron James and Dwayne Wade should be at full strength as the Heat have been idle
for the past four days. Washington, though, was 12-3 ATS versus a foe with a winning
road mark entering the first Sunday of this month.
MIAMI 108-101.

*Philadelphia over Charlotte by 4
Al Jefferson is a monster in the middle and Kemba Walker is showing far more consistency in the backcourt, but the Bobcats had to play last night while the 76ers have been idle since Saturday.
PHILADELPHIA 102-98.

*Boston over Toronto by 5
Toronto has covered 12 of its first 17 away matchups – including seven of its last eight
through Jan. 4 - but could have trouble denting the Celtics' perimeter defense, which
ranked ranked second in defending against 3-pointers.
BOSTON 98-93.

**PREFERRED
*New Orleans over Houston by 8
The Rockets are in a vulnerable spot concluding a four-game, six-day road swing and
hosting Oklahoma City on Thursday in a huge look-ahead game. The Pelicans had a
winning home mark through their first 14 games at New Orleans Arena while averaging
107.5 in their last four home games through the first week of January.
NEW ORLEANS 118-110

*Minnesota over Sacramento by 7
Quietly Sacramento point guard Isaiah Thomas is putting together a nice season since
earning his starting position and DeMarcus Cousins has developed into an All-Star
player, but the Kings' defense hasn't improved. Sacramento has allowed triple digits
in its last nine games through Jan. 6.
MINNESOTA 118-111.

Memphis over *Milwaukee by 5
The Grizzlies have been playing better on the road going 7-3-1 ATS through Jan. 4.
Milwaukee was a putrid 4-11 ATS in its first 15 home contests.
MEMPHIS 97-92.

*San Antonio over Utah by 13
The Spurs often are overpriced at home – which figures to be the case again here - and have a bigger game on Friday hosting Portland. Utah has covered nine of its last 15 road games.
SAN ANTONIO 103-90.

*Phoenix over Los Angeles Lakers by 8
The injury-racked Lakers have already undergone 18 different starting lineups and
been through six different starting point guards. Things are not good in Laker land
when the team has to rely on Kendall Marshall.
PHOENIX 104-96.

**PREFERRED
*Portland over Cleveland by 22
The Cavaliers are below average in defending against the 3-pointer and Portland has
two of the top 3-point shooters in the league with Damian Lillard and Wesley
Matthews. The Trail Blazers were 9-5 ATS in their first 14 games versus Eastern
Conference foes and draw the Cavaliers being on the highway for a fourth straight
time.
PORTLAND 115-93.

*Golden State over Denver by 6
Golden State defeated Denver in the first-round of the playoffs last season and continued its dominance in the first meeting this season, winning 89-81 at Denver on
Dec. 23 holding the Nuggets to 38.3 percent shooting from the field. The Nuggets
ranked a disappointing 15th in scoring and 21st in shooting percentage. They also
lack Golden State's star power.
GOLDEN STATE 102-96.

**PREFERRED
*Los Angeles Clippers over Dallas by 15
The teams met just 12 days ago and the Clippers won 119-112 at Dallas. However,
they lost Chris Paul in that game with a separated right shoulder following a foul by
Monta Ellis. That won't be forgotten. This will be the Clippers' fifth game since losing
Paul. The Mavericks couldn't stop Clippers big men DeAndre Jordan and Blake
Griffin, who combined for 50 points and 33 rebounds.
LA CLIPPERS 114-99.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

WINNING POINTS

COLLEGE BASKETBALL

Massachusetts over George Mason* by 7

Lasalle* over Rhode Island by 9

Tennessee* over Auburn by 13

James Madison* over Northeastern by 4

St. Joseph’s* over Duquesne by 13

Virginia Tech* over Clemson by 4

Xavier* over Georgetown by 6

Maryland* over Notre Dame by 2

**PREFERRED
Rutgers* over Central Florida by 9
The Scarlet Knights aren’t great, but as a relatively “even” commodity in the line,
home, against what would constitute a class drop at this time of the year from who
they normally play, they would seem to have enough resources to get the job done.
UCF will be primed to play at UConn. This lesser program?
Maybe not so much.
RUTGERS, 80-71.

Indiana State* over Missouri State by 8

Bowling Green* over Central Michigan by 5

**PREFERRED
Toledo* over Buffalo by 20
Five double-digit scorers and home floor for a 12-1 Toledo team, against two doubledigit scorers and a first-season Coach K Bush coach on the visitor?
TOLEDO, 81-61.

Akron* over Miami-OH by 9

Detroit* over Valparaiso by 4

NC Wilmington* over Hofstra by 3

Delaware* over William & Mary by 10

Michigan State over Northwestern* by 15

SMU* over South Florida by 8

Kent State over Northern Illinois* by 1

Oklahoma State* over TCU by 29
The visitor struggles to score; the home team scores and score and scores.
OKLAHOMASTATE, 81-52.

Ohio* over Ball State by 19

Drake over Loyola-Chicago* by 2

Illinois State* over Evansville by 8

Alabama* over Mississippi State by 14

Texas A&M* over South Carolina by 3

Saint Louis* over St. Bonaventure by 12

Miami-FL* over Florida State by 3

Wake Forest* over North Carolina State by 5

Dayton over Fordham* by 15

Baylor over Texas Tech* by 8

Mississippi* over LSU by 9

Utah State* over Colorado State by 1
The hosts – a new entry in the Mountain West -- should be pumped to play a
Mountain West team. But CSU takes great care of the rock and if Utah State had
scheduled and won more games like this in the past, they’d have been in more NCAA
Tournaments.
UTAH STATE, 75-74.

Illinois* over Purdue by 10

Air Force* over San Jose State by 11

Stanford* over Washington State by 14

California* over Washington by 9

[Can'tPickAWinner]

POINTWISE

NBA BASKETBALL

(7:05) ORLANDO MAGIC 98 - Chicago Bulls 93 _____ _____

(7:05) Miami Heat 103 - WASHINGTON 102 _____ _____

(7:05) Charlotte Bobcats 95 - PHILADELPHIA 76ERS 94 _____ _____

(7:35) BOSTON CELTICS 97 - Toronto Raptors 91 _____ _____

(8:05) Houston Rockets 101 - NEW ORLEANS 93 _____ _____

(8:05) MINNESOTA T'WOLVES 113 - Sacramento 101 _____ _____

(8:05) Memphis Grizzlies 104 - MILWAUKEE BUCKS 96 _____ _____

(8:05) SAN ANTONIO SPURS 116 - Utah 103 (ESPN) _____ _____

(9:05) PHOENIX SUNS 95 - Los Angeles Lakers 94 _____ _____

(10:05) PORTLAND TRAILBLAZERS 110 - Cleveland 97 _____ _____

(10:35) GOLDEN STATE 113 - Denver 98 (ESPN) _____ _____

(10:35) Dallas Mavericks 107 - LA CLIPPERS 106 _____ _____

BEST BETS
WASHINGTON
MINNESOTA (2)
GOLDEN ST. (2)
DALLAS

[Can'tPickAWinner]

POINTWISE

COLLEGIATE
BASKETBALL PROPHECY

KEY RELEASES
JS MADISON over Northeastern (Wed) RATING: 4
ILLINOIS over Purdue (Wed) RATING: 4

(7:00) Massachusetts 79 - GEORGE MASON 66 _____ _____

(7:00) LASALLE 71 - Rhode Island 65 _____ _____

(7:00) TENNESSEE 93 - Auburn 75 _____ _____

(7:00) JAMES MADISON 70 - Northeastern 64 _____ _____

(7:00) ST JOSEPHS 77 - Duquesne 67 _____ _____

(7:00) VIRGINIA TECH 68 - Clemson 65 _____ _____

(7:00) XAVIER 82 - Georgetown 76 (CBSC) _____ _____

(7:00) MARYLAND 72 - Notre Dame 65 (ESPN2) _____ _____

(7:00) Central Florida 63 - RUTGERS 62 (ESPNN) _____ _____

(7:00) INDIANA STATE 76 - Missouri State 67 _____ _____

(7:00) BOWLING GREEN 79 - Central Michigan 70 _____ _____

(7:00) TOLEDO 71 - Buffalo 69 _____ _____

(7:00) AKRON 74 - Miami-Ohio 58 _____ _____

(7:00) DETROIT 77 - Valparaiso 72 _____ _____

(7:00) Hofstra 68 - UNC-WILMINGTON 65 _____ _____

(7:00) DELAWARE 67 - William & Mary 58 _____ _____

(7:00) Michigan State 80 - NORTHWESTERN 60 (BIG10) _____ _____

(7:00) SMU 79 - South Florida 57 (ESPNU) _____ _____

(8:00) Kent State 66 - NORTHERN ILLINOIS 62 _____ _____

(8:00) OKLAHOMA STATE 91 - Tcu 61 _____ _____

(8:00) OHIO U 75 - Ball State 49 _____ _____

(8:00) Drake 58 - LOYOLA-CHICAGO 56 _____ _____

(8:00) ILLINOIS STATE 77 - Evansville 70 _____ _____

(8:00) ALABAMA 63 - Mississippi State 57 _____ _____

(8:00) TEXAS A&M 72 - South Carolina 65 _____ _____

(8:00) SAINT LOUIS 81 - St Bonaventure 62 _____ _____

(9:00) Florida State 59 - MIAMI-FLORIDA 58 _____ _____

(9:00) WAKE FOREST 89 - North Carolina State 76 _____ _____

(9:00) Dayton 76 - FORDHAM 63 _____ _____

(9:00) Baylor 74 - TEXAS TECH 62 (ESPN) _____ _____

(9:00) MISSISSIPPI 71 - Lsu 60 _____ _____

(9:00) NEW MEXICO 65 - Unlv 64 (CBSC) _____ _____

(9:00) UTAH STATE 82 - Colorado State 59 _____ _____

(9:00) ILLINOIS 77 - Purdue 57 (BIG10) _____ _____

(9:00) AIR FORCE 83 - San Jose State 78 _____ _____

(10:00) SAN DIEGO STATE 74 - Fresno State 59 _____ _____

(10:00) STANFORD 80 - Washington State 54 _____ _____

(11:00) CALIFORNIA 62 - Washington 51 (ESPNU) _____ _____

BEST BETS
JAMES MADISON (4)
BUFFALO
DETROIT
MISSISSIPPI STATE
BAYLOR
UTAH STATE
ILLINOIS (4)

[Can'tPickAWinner]

NBA

Hot teams
-- Bulls won five of their last six games.
-- Raptors won eight of their last ten games.
-- Memphis won four of last five games, covered last seven.
-- Kings won three of their last four games (6-7-1 AU).
-- Rockets won seven of last ten games, covered three of last four.
-- Spurs won five in row, eight of last nine games (4-1 last five HF).
-- Portland won three of last four home games. Cavaliers won three of their last four games (5-3 last eight AU).
-- Nuggets won five of their last six games (5-4 AU). Warriors won 11 of last 12 games (4-7 last 11 HF).
-- Mavericks won four of their last five games. Clippers won five of last six games.

Cold Teams
-- Magic lost their last eight games (0-8 vs spread).
-- Bobcats lost eight of their last ten games; 76ers lost last four (0-4 vs spread).
-- Heat lost their last two games (1-5 last six AF). Washington lost its last four home games (3-3 AU).
-- Celtics lost last nine games, covered three of last four.
-- Bucks lost last six games (0-6 vs spread).
-- Minnesota lost three of last five home games (4-6 last ten HF).
-- Pelicans lost last six games, covered two of last eight.
-- Jazz lost last three road games, by 11-8-10 points (9-6 last 15 AU).
-- Lakers lost nine of last ten games, covered one of last five. Phoenix lost four of its last five games.

Series records
-- Bulls won nine of last ten games with Orlando.
-- Bobcats won last two games with Philly,. after losing previous five.
-- Miami won four in row vs Washington, but lost two of last three here.
-- Home side won ten of last eleven Toronto-Boston games; Raptors lost last ten visits to Beantown.
-- Grizzlies won their last five games with Milwaukee.
-- Kings lost last three visits to Minnesota, by 13-2-12 points.
-- Rockets won five of last six games with New Orleans.
-- Spurs won eight of last nine games with Utah.
-- Lakers lost four of last five games with Phoenix.
-- Cavaliers lost five of last six games with Portland.
-- Nuggets lost three of last four visits to Oakland.
-- Clippers won four of last five games with Dallas.

Totals
-- Four of last five Chicago road games stayed under total.
-- Nine of last ten Charlotte road games went over total.
-- Four of last five Miami road games went over the total.
-- Eight of last ten Toronto road games stayed under total.
-- Under is 9-4 in Milwaukee's last thirteen home games.
-- Last six Sacramento road games went over the total.
-- Seven of last nine Houston road games stayed under.
-- Over is 12-4-1 in last seventeen San Antonio home games.
-- Five of last seven Laker road games stayed under total.
-- Ten of last twelve Portand home games went over total.
-- Six of last seven Denver games went over; four of last five Golden State home games stayed under.
-- Last five Dallas road games stayed under the total.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

NHL

Hot teams
-- Toronto won its last two games after losing previous four.
-- Penguins won six of their last eight games.
-- Anaheim won its last seven games, allowing 16 goals.

Cold teams
-- Sabres lost 11 of their last 12 road games.
-- Washington lost six of its last eight games.
-- Canucks lost six of their last seven games.

Totals
-- Under is 5-1-1 in last seven Buffalo games.
-- Seven of last ten Washington games stayed under.
-- Six of last seven Anaheim games went over total.

Series records
-- Sabres lost eight of last nine visits to Toronto.
-- Penguins won their last five games with Washington.
-- Ducks won seven of last nine games with Vancouver.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Football Crusher
no play
(System Record: 55-4, won last game)
Overall Record: 55-50-1

Hockey Crusher
Anaheim Ducks -170 over Vancouver
(System Record: 54-2, won last 2 games)
Overall Record: 54-38-1

Basketball Crusher
LSU +3 over Mississippi
(System Record: 33-3, lost last 3 games and a push)
Overall Record: 33-44-2

Soccer Crusher
Oostende + Genk OVER 2.5
This match is happening in Belgium
(System Record: 508-18, won last game)
Overall Record: 508-439-74

Here are the rest of his hockey and basketball plays for today...


Hockey
Buffalo Sabres + Toronto Maple Leafs OVER 5
Pittsburgh Penguins + Washington Capitals OVER 5.5
Vancouver Canucks + Anaheim Ducks OVER 5.5


Basketball
Purdue +5.5 over Illinois
Texas Tech +4 over Baylor
Saint Bonaventure +10.5 over St. Louis

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Sports Nostradamus

CBB
Georgetown
Toledo
Illinois

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Chicago Syndicate

CBB
James Madison (ML)
Indiana State
Loyola-Chicago

NBA
Under Bulls
Wizards
Celtics
Over Cavs

[Can'tPickAWinner]

LA Syndicate

NBA
Over Kings
Over Trailblazers
Under Warriors
Under Clippers

CBB
New Mexico
Over California