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OC Dooley:2 UNIT” MIDDAY COLLEGE NATIONAL-TV BASKETBALL (Missouri -5 at home versus Alabama in a 2:05 eastern tipoff telecast on ESPN2): In almost all conferences winning on the road has been a difficult task which makes the sheer location of today’s game trouble for the visitors. Not only is Alabama 0-6 so far on the ROAD this campaign where the defense has permitted nearly “ten points more” than the season average, the Crimson Tide are an equally awful 1-5 ATS on enemy hardwood. It was almost exactly one year ago when the visited Missouri and were promptly blown out by the Tigers in a 84-68 final verdict. Today’s hosts will not be in a good mood as a massive 26-game home winning streak by Missouri has just been snapped, but they have the advantage down low in the paint against Alabama who is averaging the fewest rebounds per game (34) in the entire Southeast Conference. I am aware that Alabama is coming off a midweek triumph versus Mississippi State but the Bulldogs were coming off an emotional victory against in-state rival Ole Miss in the prior outing. Missouri has won 8 of 9 times this season in front of the HOME faithful, but they have only covered the spread twice which makes this a law-of-averages wager
Game: Milwaukee at Houston (8:00 PM Eastern)
Pick: Milwaukee +14 (-110) at Bovada
This is a classic example of David vs. Goliath, one in which the general public likes to dig in on. They certainly have staked their claim for this one with 2/3 siding with Houston. It is a hard pill to swallow when looking at Milwaukee's painful 7-31 record, and just 4-16 road mark to pull the trigger on them. Motivation is often the key ingredient. After a game with Oklahoma City, this is surely anticlimactic for the Rockets who are just 1-3 ATS in their last four as double-digit chalk. The Rockets have not showed inspired play vs. a team below .400 where they are just 1-5 ATS in their last six, and the Bucks have cashed four of their last five here. As ugly as it looks, make the play on Milwaukee.
2-Unit Play. Take #520 Virginia (-5.5) over Florida State (Noon, Saturday, Jan. 18)
2-Unit Play. Take #530 Kentucky (-8) over Tennessee (Noon, Saturday, Jan. 18)
1-Unit Play. Take #522 Georgetown (-6.5) over Seton Hall (Noon, Saturday, Jan. 18)
1-Unit Play. Take #527 Delaware (-1.5) over Northeastern (Noon, Saturday, Jan. 18)
5-Unit Play. Take #661 UL-Lafayette (-4.5) over Troy (8:30 p.m., Saturday, Jan. 18)
Note: This is our Game of the Week.
Going back to the well with Louisiana-Lafayette. I was not surprised that this team fell at South Alabama earlier this week. USA is tough at home and they were just waiting to unload after a slow league start. But I do still think that Lafayette is in the top tier of this very talented conference and I think that they are going to lay the wood to one of the bottom feeders. Troy just lost to UL-Monroe at home and even though Troy tripped us up last week with their unbelievable fluke performance at Arkansas State I still contend that this team sucks. I will take another shot at them. Lafayette is a much better team now that they have their center back and they have the two best players on the floor with Elfrid Payton and Shawn Long. This one is not going to be a blowout. Not by any stretch. But Lafayette will win this game and they should beat this number.
3-Unit Play. Take #637 Eastern Michigan (-4.5) over Central Michigan (7 p.m., Saturday, Jan. 18)
3-Unit Play. Take #668 LSU (-8.5) over Vanderbilt (9 p.m., Saturday, Jan. 18)
2-Unit Play. Take #542 Kansas State (-4.5) over West Virginia (1:45 p.m., Saturday, Jan. 18)
1-Unit Play. Take #548 Missouri (-4.50 over Alabama (2 p.m., Saturday, Jan. 18)
2-Unit Play. Take #564 Georgia Tech (-1.5) over Miami (2 p.m., Saturday, Jan. 18)
2-Unit Play. Take #568 Duke (-13) over N.C. State (2 p.m., Saturday, Jan. 18)
2-Unit Play. Take #572 Buffalo (-5) over Kent State (6 p.m., Saturday, Jan. 18)
2-Unit Play. Take #592 California (-14.5) over Washington State (4 p.m., Saturday, Jan. 18)
2-Unit Play. Take #596 Wichita State (-10) over Indiana State (4 p.m., Saturday, Jan. 18)
2-Unit Play. Take #600 William & Mary (-6.5) over James Madison (4 p.m., Saturday, Jan. 18)
1-Unit Play. Take #609 East Carolina (+2) over Florida International (5 p.m., Saturday, Jan. 18)
2-Unit Play. Take #621 Texas Tech (-2) over TCU (6 p.m., Saturday, Jan. 18)
2-Unit Play. Take #646 UAB (-4.5) over UTEP (8 p.m., Saturday, Jan. 18)
1-Unit Play. Take #658 Illinois (+4.5) over Michigan State (8 p.m., Saturday, Jan. 18)
1-Unit Play. Take #660 South Alabama (-6.5) over UL-Monroe (8:30 p.m., Saturday, Jan. 18)
2-Unit Play. Take #664 Connecticut (+1.5) over Louisville (9 p.m., Saturday, Jan. 18)
1-Unit Play. Take #709 Chattanooga (+7) over Wofford (7 p.m., Saturday, Jan. 18)
2-Unit Play. Take #715 Massachusetts (-4.5) over Elon (7 p.m., Saturday, Jan. 18)
2-Unit Play. Take #719 SE Missouri State (+2) over Tennessee Tech (8 p.m., Saturday, Jan. 18)
2-Unit Play. Take #729 Eastern Washington (-1) over Sacramento State (10 p.m., Saturday, Jan. 18)
2-Unt Play. Take #675 BYU (-6) over Santa Clara (10 p.m., Saturday, Jan. 18)
1-Unit Play. Take #685 Murray State (-4.5) over SIU-Edwardsville (2 p.m., Saturday, Jan. 18)
1-Unit Play. Take #696 North Dakota State (-16) over Western Illinois (3 p.m., Saturday, Jan. 18)
1-Unit Play. Take #703 Omaha (+6) over South Dakota State (5 p.m., Saturday, Jan. 18)
Raphael Esparza (VSI)'s Picks For College Basketball
COLLEGE BASKETBALL PLAY
2 Unit Play. Take #548 Missouri -4 ½ over Alabama (2:00p.m., Saturday, Jan 18 ESPN)
Last couple of games Mizzou has shown that they can be beat but at home the Tigers are tough. Look for Mizzou to get some revenge after their last home game they lost to Georgia in overtime. Bama could be in trouble as the Tigers are going to be pissed this afternoon. Alabama is 1-5 ATS in their last 6 road games and the Tigers are 6-1 ATS following a SU loss.
3 Unit Play. Take #614 Over 132 UNLV at San Diego St (6:00p.m., Saturday, Jan 18 CBSC)
If UNLV plays like they did against New Mexico on Wednesday (winning 76-73) then this game will have no problem going over the total. UNLV played probably their best game of the year on Wednesday and the Rebels offense has been consistent as of late averaging almost 75ppg.San Diego St will probably want to slow down this game but I just don't see that happening. Should be a great game and I see offense being the big key for both and I see the Aztecs controlling the game late in the 2nd half and this game has no problem going over. Last 2 meetings between these 2 schools both games went over. UNLV is 7-1 O/U in their last 8 games and the Aztecs are 4-1 O/U in their last 5 Saturday games.
5 Unit Play. Take #726 Montana St -4 ½ over North Dakota (9:00p.m., Saturday, Jan 18)
(Game of the Week) Can somebody please tell me why this game is not a solid -7 or -8? Montana St is 6-1 at home and has won 4 out of their last 5 games and their last game won by double-digits against No. Colorado. North Dakota St is winless on the road and has dropped back-to-back games by double digits. Not only have they dropped back-to-back games by double digits but also they have dropped all their games not at home by double digits. (8 losses by double-digits). If Montana St can control the boards at home and get to the free line then I see another Bobcats victory and another bad loss for North Dakota. North Dakota is 0-7 ATS following a SU loss and 0-5 ATS against conference opponents. The Bobcats are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 home games.
Premium Plays
Matchup: L.A. Clippers at Indiana
Time: 7:05 PM EDT (Sat)
Play: Indiana (-8.5 -110)
Line Source: The Greek
Posted on: January 18, 2014 @ 2:50:27 AM EST
4* No Brainer on Indiana Pacers -
The Clippers have not played well on the road this year, and I expect them to struggle against a Pacers team that has a 20-1 record at home this season. Indiana is 15-6 ATS in those games. They come into this matchup playing with a day of rest, while Los Angeles is playing in a back-to-back situation after facing the Knicks last night. A big reason for Indiana's success at home has been outstanding play on the defensive end of the court. They surrender a mere 83.3 points per game at home this season. I think the Pacers will easily put up a big number on the offensive end of the court since Los Angeles has surrendered 100.4 points per game on the road. Indiana has been a good team to back all season, but they are a great team to back when playing as a favorite. They are 22-9 ATS as a favorite this season, and they are 3-1 ATS in head-to-head matchups with Los Angeles over the last three seasons. The Clippers have a long history of struggles against good defensive teams. They are 76-111 ATS against teams allowing 91 points per game or less. With Los Angeles playing on back-to-back nights and facing one of the best teams in the league, I think Indiana is poised to pick up a double-digit win in this game.
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