If this is your first visit, be sure to
check out the FAQ by clicking the
link above. You may have to register
before you can post: click the register link above to proceed. To start viewing messages,
select the forum that you want to visit from the selection below.
The San Antonio Spurs travel to Miami to take on the Heat on Sunday afternoon. San Antonio is now 33-10 SU overall this year while Miami is 31-12 SU overall on the season. San Antonio is 62-34 ATS since 1996 and 19-8 ATS last 3 years against Southeast Division teams. San Antonio is 56-14 SU and 47-21 ATS last 3 years against non-conference opponents. San Antonio is 59-32 ATS last 3 years after scoring 105 points or more. San Antonio is a strong 16-3 SU on the road this year. San Antonio is scoring 104.8 points per game overall this year and 104.1 points per game on the road this season. San Antonio is scoring 105.8 points per game their past five games overall. Miami is allowing 99.6 points per game at home this year. We'll play San Antonio today! Thanks and good luck, Rocky
NBA
LAKERS / KNICKS - OVER 207 -108 *4* BEST BET
Neither of these teams play defense. The Lakers over their last 10 games give up an average of 112 points a game. They have also scored an averaged of 108 over their last 7. The Knicks have given up 105.5 per game their last 7 games. They have scored 125 and 106 their last 2 games. Lakers D on the road this year gives up 108.2 a game and Knicks D at home gives up 101.1.
SPURS / HEAT - OVER 202.5 -107 *4*
Spurs have scored at least 100 points in 10 straight and are averaging over 107 over the 10 games. They have also given up 105 or more in 3 of 5. The Heat should have no problem scoring on 2 days rest. The Heat average 107.3 ppg at home while the Spurs average 104.1 on the road.. On 2 days rest this year the Heat have averaged 111.3 for and 104.7 against. Spurs missing a couple starters but still have their big scorers in the lineup, we expect 100 points from both teams here today.
NETS -4 -105 *2*
Nets have won 9 of 10 and would have only failed to cover -4 in 2 of those 9 wins. They have covered 3 of 4 vs Boston and won by 8 earlier this year. Boston has lost 8 of 10 and 5 of the 8 losses were by 4 or more. Nets have covered 6 straight vs team with a losing record and 8 of 10 overall. They have covered 6 straight on 1 days rest.
BLAZERS +5.5 -108 *2*
BLAZERS / WARRIORS - OVER 216.5 -102 *2*
This is one of those games where the chances of cashing both are much greater than losing both in our opinions. With a 1-1 split, we'll drink the juice and move on. The Blazers have already beat the Warriors in Golden State this year and beat them with ease. Blazers games are playing to 222.6 points L5, while the Warriors games are hitting 221.6!
Premium Plays
Matchup: Brooklyn at Boston
Time: 6:35 PM EDT (Sun)
Play: Under (193.0 -110)
Line Source: SouthPoint
Posted on: January 26, 2014 @ 10:56:05 AM EST
4* Total Dominator on Nets/Celtics UNDER
The total in this game seems to be quite a bit higher than it should be. Boston is playing some solid defense right now surrendering just 87.8 points per game against division opponents. The Celtics offense has been horrible this year, so I think the Nets are poised for a strong defensive performance too. Boston averages 95.1 points per game and should struggle against this Brooklyn team that has held opponents to 96.4 points per game over its last five games. That five game stretch has come against opponents with a lot more scoring potential than the Celtics bring to this matchup. The under is 14-4 in Boston's last 18 home games when coming off a matchup with a non-conference opponent. The under is also 12-4 when Boston has been an underdog of 3.5 to 9.5 points this season. Brooklyn is well rested right now, playing just their second game in five days. The under is 26-14 in the Nets last 40 games when playing in a 2-in-5 situation over the last two seasons. There is a very profitable system backing the under in this matchup. You should play the under when the total is between 190 to 199.5 points and the road team is well rested playing their second game in five days, and they have won 40 to 49 percent of their games on the season. This system is 48-21 (70%) to the under for the last five seasons. With both teams playing solid defense recently I expect this to be a very low scoring game.
Matchup: Brooklyn at Boston
Time: 6:35 PM EDT (Sun)
Play: Brooklyn (-4 -102)
Line Source: 5Dimes
Posted on: January 26, 2014 @ 10:56:05 AM EST
3* Oddsmakers Error on Brooklyn Nets -
The Celtics are a bad team and I like the Nets to win this game in a blowout. Brooklyn is the hottest team in the league since the New Year winning nine of its last 10 games. They have covered the spread in eight of those games, yet the oddsmakers still seem to be undervaluing the Nets. A once struggling offense from Brooklyn is now averaging 103.1 points per game over its last five games. Boston comes into this game with a 3-16 record in their last 19 games. I don't expect home court advantage to be a big factor since it is a short travel time from Brooklyn to Boston, and the Celtics fan base will probably be more excited about seeing Paul Pierce and Kevin Garnett than they will their own players. Pierce and Garnett were key factors in turning the Celtics franchise around, and this will be the first game on their old home court since the blockbuster trade that sent them to the Nets. This matchup fits into a very profitable system to play against the Celtics. You should play against home underdogs of 3.5 to 9.5 points like Boston when they are coming off a loss by 10 or more points, and they are facing an opponent that has scored 100 points or more in three straight games. This system has a 43-19 (69%) record against the spread over the last five seasons.
Matchup: Portland at Golden State
Time: 9:05 PM EDT (Sun)
Play: Golden State (-5 -110)
Line Source: Stations
Posted on: January 26, 2014 @ 10:56:05 AM EST
4* Vegas Insider on Golden State Warriors -
We are getting a lot of value on the Warriors today thanks to a couple bad performances against some very good teams. I have Golden State getting things back on track tonight with a big win over Portland. The Trailblazers have been horrible defensively. They are surrendering 110.2 points per game over their last five games, and things could get really out of hand tonight against this Warriors team that averages 105.9 points per game at home. While Golden State has had a few struggles on the defensive end of the court recently, you also can't ignore the fact that they held opponents to an average of 92.8 points per game during their recent 10 game win streak. Portland has lost its last two games on the road, scoring just 97 points in their last outing against Oklahoma City. I expect a similar performance out of the Trailblazers in this game, thanks to a strong defensive performance from Golden State. The Warriors are 20-7 ATS after allowing 100 points or more in two straight games. Portland on the other hand has a 1-10 ATS record in road games after two straight games where both teams scored 100 points or more. This matchup also fits a system to play on favorites like Golden State when they are allowing a shooting percentage of 43.5 to 45.5 percent and are playing a poor defensive team allowing 45.5 to 47.5 percent when both teams have a +3 to +5.5 figure in rebounding margin. This system is 39-17 (70%) against the spread.
Matchup: San Antonio at Miami
Time: 1:00 PM EDT (Sun)
Play: Under (203.5 -110)
Line Source: CarbonSports
Posted on: January 26, 2014 @ 10:56:05 AM EST
Free Pick on Spurs/Heat UNDER
The total for this game has been set way too high considering this matchup features two very talented defensive teams. The Spurs are holding opponents to a mere 94.3 points per game on the road this season. They are up against a Miami team that is allowing 98.5 points per game. San Antonio has gone under the total in three of its last four games. While Miami may not have that same trend right now, you also cannot ignore the fact that three of their last four totals have been set well under the mark set in today's matchup. You should play the under when the total is 200 points or more, the home team is making over 47.5 percent of its shot attempts overall, they have made over 50 percent of their attempts in two straight games, and they are facing an average defensive team allowing a shooting percentage between 43.5 to 45.5 percent. This system identifies games where the oddsmakers set the bar too high on the total. The under has a 41-11 (79%) record in this scenario. These teams share two of the best records in the league because of their outstanding defensive play this season, and I expect this game to stay well under the posted total.
Comment