2-7-14

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StatFox Super Situations - FoxSheets

NBA DENVER at NEW YORK
Play Under - All teams where the total is greater than or equal to 200 average 3PT shooting team (33-36.5%) against a poor 3PT defense (>=36.5%), average ball handling team (14.5-16.5 TO's) against a good ball handling team (<=14.5 TO's)
84-42 over the last 5 seasons. ( 66.7% 37.8 units )
13-5 this year. ( 72.2% 7.5 units )

NBA OKLAHOMA CITY at ORLANDO
Play Against - Home teams vs. the money line (ORLANDO) average shooting team (43.5-45.5%) against an good defensive team (41.5-43.5%), good ball handling team (<=14.5 TO's) against a poor pressure defensive team (<=14.5 TO's)
80-51 over the last 5 seasons. ( 61.1% 38.4 units )
6-5 this year. ( 54.5% 3.3 units )

NBA UTAH at DALLAS
Play Against - Favorites vs. the 1rst half line (DALLAS) after 2 straight wins by 10 points or more against opponent after scoring 80 points or less
29-8 over the last 5 seasons. ( 78.4% 20.2 units )

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DIAMOND DOG SPORTS

NBA
Over Pacers 195.0 -110

NCAA
Passing

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Kevin Rogers


Magic +9½

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Robert Ferringo

3-Unit Play. Take #831 Charlotte (-3.5) over Tulane (8 p.m., Friday, Feb. 7)


I will go with Charlotte here simply because I don't think Tulane is very good. They have three guys that can put the ball in the hole. The rest of the roster is essentially a D-II team. Charlotte's only wins lately have come against East Carolina, Rice and North Texas, three of the four worst teams in Conference USA. Yes, Charlotte lost to Rice. And yes, they have been garbage away from home. But this Charlotte group has been good enough to beat Kansas State and Michigan and throw a scare into Georgia Tech. They won at UTEP and already beat Tulsa, two of the better teams in the league, and the 49ers have a nice balanced scoring attack. Their peripheral numbers are better against a much better schedule, and the times that Tulane has lost they have usually gotten bombed, losing by 31 to Kansas State, by 26 to Tulsa, by 28 to Louisiana Tech and by 31 to Southern Miss. The Green Wave are .500 on the season, but four of those wins have come at home against teams ranked No. 300 or worse and just two of the wins, over shaky Northeastern (No. 198) and over Southern (No. 194) have come against team in the Top 200. I think Charlotte gets the job done tonight.


1-Unit Play. Take #844 Canisius (-2.5) over Manhattan (7 p.m., Friday, Feb. 7)


1-Unit Play. Take #833 DePaul (+20) over Creighton (9 p.m., Friday, Feb. 7)


I also have a lean on the 'over' in the DePaul-Creighton game.

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Wunderdog Sports Free Pick

Game: Oklahoma City at Orlando (7:00 PM Eastern)
Pick: Oklahoma City -9 (-108) at 5Dimes

A few years ago, Orlando was competing strongly in the playoffs. That dropped off when Dwight Howard made his exit, as this team has fallen sharply. The Magic enter this game at a paltry 14-37 on the season. Oklahoma City is once again playing without Russell Westbrook, but Kevin Durant has taken his game to another level, and has more than compensated for the loss. The Thunder is rolling at 12-1 in their last 13 games, and seven of their last eight wins have come by 9 points or more. The Magic have shown time and again to be over-matched vs. the powerful West, as they are 3-13 ATS in their last 16 against them. The Thunder roll on, so lay the points and play on Oklahoma City.

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Doc Sports
CBB
4* #833 Take DePaul +20 over Creighton

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Gavazzi Friday, February 7, 2014

CBKB

Thursday was another night that saw teams play to form. That means that spanning the previous three days, 56 of the 100 college games (56%) were decided by 5 or less points from the opening line (compare to 39% for the season through January 31st). Yet, this bureau traversed the raging waters with a 10-6 ATS mark on all selections, keyed by 3-1 ATS on 10* plays. Amazingly, 5 of our 6 losses were by a total of 11 points. That means that in the last 3 nights, 14 of our 19 losses have come by 3 or less points from the opening line. This is a clear indicator that we are due for many close victories. Stick with me kid, you will do just fine! Tonight, I unleash the Prince of the Ivy’s on the betting world. I went 3-1 ATS (75%) last Friday and figures to do that well every Friday night for the next 5 weeks.



Columbia at Princeton (-8) 7:00 ET

3% Columbia (+8)

Princeton gave us a heroic effort last Friday night in their loss, but cover, vs. Harvard. But, that defeat is sandwiched between losses to Dartmouth and Penn, 2 of the 3 worst teams in the league. No guarantee that they do any better against a Columbia team, who has a long-term history of success in this role with a record of 32-14 ATS as +8+ on the road, including 9-0 ATS in that role under 4th year HC Smith. The Lions have a near Defensive Dandy defense at 62/41/33 while knocking down 45% from the field and 39% from the arc. Take the defensive dog in their preferred role in what should be a quiet evening at Jadwin, with little excitement being generated by the home team.



Yale (-2/-120) at Dartmouth 7:00 ET

3% Yale (-2/-120)

Best boy Maldunas is lost for the season and all the Big Green does is whip Penn and Princeton on this floor last week. Go figure. That is 2-2 SU in league play for their best start in years. I’m not buying. This will be an impotent offensive team that should have notable problems keeping up with an Eli contingent that is 3-1 SU in the league with meaningful wins against Brown and Columbia. Veteran Yale HC Jones will have his team on alert after being dumped by the Big Green on this floor last year, 71-62. Consider buying the half point down to -2


TOP IVY LEAGUE PLAY OF THE DAY

Brown at Harvard (-16.5) 7:00 ET

4% Brown (+16.5)

After playing the likes of Colorado, Wisc-Green Bay, Boston College, and UConn in the preseason and having already defeated Princeton, how bored must the 4-0 SU Crimson be with the thought of 10 more games against the outmanned Ivy League? Oddly enough, their greatest challenge may come from this Bruin team in their 2nd year under HC Martin. In non-con play, the Bruins lost by only 4 at Providence and 6 at Northwestern. In fact, at 11-7 SU, they have had no loss by more than 9 points (Rhode Island). Indicator of success is a +4.8 net rebound margin Uninspired Crimson, 35-52 ATS in con play under 7th year HC Amaker, will have their hands full with Brown tonight. Those so inclined may consider buying the half point up to +17


Cornell at Penn (-10) 7:00 ET

3% Cornell (+10)

With their 78 PPG defense that allows 40% from the arc, no way the Quakes deserve this level of favoritism even against lowly Cornell, with their equally horrific 79/48/40 defense. After beating Princeton opening night, Penn went north last weekend for losses of 9 at Dartmouth and 30 at Harvard. That means they are 4-13 SU for the season, 13-35 SU L2Y. The 1-17 SU Big Red lost confidence when they were overscheduled in non-con play at Syracuse, Louisville, Notre Dame, and St. Bonaventure. Three Ivy League road games have resulted in a trio of losses, all by 12 or less, but 3 covers as well. That runs the record for the season to 5-0 ATS as road dog of 16 or less. In a game between the 2 worst teams in the league, we take the points.


Iona (-9) at Niagara 7:00 ET

4% Niagara (+9)

Watch out for the rabbit in this one! Iona is fat with a 5-0 SU ATS winning streak, all by 8 or more points following their loss to Canisius. Behind Sean Armand and the quick trigger three, the Gaels are a perfect 4-0 ATS as MAAC road chalk. But after traversing the state of New York, there is little motivation to play a team they have already beaten 118-92 and who they know also lost to Canisius by 13. Waiting for Armand and the Gaels is a Purple Eagle with an equally quick trigger in Antwaine Mason. Shocking upset no surprise to this bureau.



NBA

Portland Trailblazers at Indiana Pacers (-6) 7:05 ET ESPN

4% Indiana Pacers (-6)

Home court and defense, the difference in this one! Respect is given to the 16-9 SU road record of the Blazers. But since their burst from the gate, Portland is on an 8-17 ATS downer, and has allowed 104 PPG L9 games. Tonight, they must face a Pacer team fueled by 106-102 revenge for a recent loss at Portland and who is playing on a home court where they are 17-8 ATS and allowing just 84 PPG. Full focus by the best team in the NBA gets this double digit victory.



Sacramento Kings (-1) at Boston Celtics 7:35 ET

4% Sacramento Kings (-1)

Celtics enter with consecutive victories against Philly and Orlando (so what?). The Cs are just 3-9 SU ATS recently on the parquet. They are also on negative slides of 7-21 SU and 10-20 ATS. Tonight, meaningful perimeter contributors Rhondo and Bradley may not make post. With double, double machine Cousins returning to the lineup, the Kings have begun a new winning streak. Since the addition of Gay to the roster, and when PG Thomas, Cousins and Gay have all played together, the Kings are 10-5 SU. Expect another victory tonight.



Denver Nuggets (-1) at New York Knicks 7:35 ET

3% Denver Nuggets (-1)

The Knicks are 4-2 SU ATS at home following their 7-15 SU, 5-17 ATS start at MSG. Closer examination of the schedule shows that those 4 victories were against languishing entities Cleveland, LAL, Boston, and Charlotte. Now, they must line up in their worst role for they are 2-9 ATS as home dog. Since Denver HC Shaw opted for the 94ft. game, the Nuggets have gone 10-6 SU averaging 112 PPG. Loss of PG Robinson ably offset by PG Lawson. An inspection of the standings, tells you why we love playing these Western Conference teams at short road prices vs. the East. Nuggets a prime example, winning 7/9 recently on Eastern Conference courts.



Brooklyn Nets at Detroit Pistons (-1-) 7:35 ET

3% Brooklyn Nets (+1-)

Linemaker still giving too much love to a Detroit team that is 19-29 SU for the season, 21-27 ATS, failing to cover by a net of -131 points. Much of that failure has come in recent weeks as the Pistons enter tonight on a slide of 7-14 SU, 7-18 ATS. Detroit has been particularly bad in this role at home, standing 4-14 ATS when not favored by more than 6 points. Nets at the other end of the spectrum with a 2014 mark of 12-4 SU, 11-5 ATS. We play the divergent momentum of these teams for this easy winner.





Seton Hall at Villanova (-12-) 7:00 ET FS1

You don’t want to miss the 4 selections from the Prince of the Ivy tonight, who is 75% on his Friday night Ivy League games for the season. A strong 10* play in MAAC action and a pair of 10* in NBA round out the Top Play card. Just because its Friday night, does not mean you can’t win a lot of money while you are trying to persuade her to go home with you. Stick with me kid, we will do just fine. Never easy to fade explosive Villanova who is 20-2 SU, 15-5 ATS because savvy 13th year HC Wright was clever enough to use the rules to his advantage, returning to his 4 guard set that averages 81 PPG. When at full strength, however, Seton Hall has proven a worthy foe. Witness the 4-2 SU, 6-0 ATS road dog mark with outright wins at Providence, Georgetown and Xavier. Pirates’ potent perimeter of Edwin, Oliver and Gibbs can match the Wildcats shot for shot.



Detroit at Valparaiso (-8) 9:00 ET ESPNU

You don’t want to miss the 4 selections from the Prince of the Ivy tonight, who is 75% on his Friday night Ivy League games for the season. A strong 10* play in MAAC action and a pair of 10* in NBA round out the Top Play card. Just because its Friday night, does not mean you can’t win a lot of money while you are trying to persuade her to go home with you. Stick with me kid, we will do just fine. Rebuilding Detroit, a one man show with Juwan Howard (the younger), the only game in town. Titans are recently 2-6 SU ATS in league play, including an earlier 8 point loss to Valpo at Callahan. Crusaders completely rebuilding under 3rd year HC Drew, but they have far more offensive balance resulting in numbers of 76/48/39 and 74% from the stripe to extend the margin. They continue to improve. Witness the 5-1 SU ATS recent mark. We follow the momentum of two teams headed opposite directions.



Manhattan at Canisius (-2-) 7:00 ET ESPNU

At 8-4 SU in league play, preseason MAAC favorite Manhattan, trails both Canisius and Iona by 2 games. For the Golden Griffs tonight, it aint no fun, when the rabbit’s got the gun (team with inferior record possessing a mental advantage). Under 3rd year HC Masiello, a Pitino disciple, the Jaspers are 29-13 ATS on the road, including 7-3 ATS this year. But, I was shocked when I tuned into their rivalry game at Iona last Friday night. Even with best boy Beamon in the lineup and a veteran cast, Manhattan showed far less offensive cohesion than last year’s team. Worse, is that they never tried to slow the tempo against the superior fast-paced team. Golden Griffins showed they are the equal of Iona when they won at New Rochelle, 85-83. In a game where Golden Griff star, Baron, outshined Iona’s best boy, Sean Armand. No surprise that Jaspers have the same matchup issues as last Friday night against the Golden Griff team who is on a run of 7-1 SU, 6-2 ATS and is 5-1 ATS as MAAC home chalk.

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Ben Burns NHL

San Jose ML

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Sports Cash System Play of The Day for Today: 2/7


NCAA College Basketball

DePaul +19½ over Creighton


(Spread Bet)
Overall Record: 212-187
(System Record: 212-10, Won last game)

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Paul Leiner 1000* Kings/Celtics OVER the total

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River City Sharps

We think this looks like a really good spot to back the road favorite. We have Dartmouth, which had lost five straight games before taking their last two over Princeton and Penn, and a Yale team that has won four of their last five. If you look at this game strictly on paper, we think that most people would side with the very short priced home dog, and we really think that's what the linesmakers are trying to get in this spot. Currently, the public is pretty split on the side, yet the line is inching up towards Yale, which is a curious move. The power ratings we have show a fairly large discrepancy between these two teams and actually give us Dartmouth winning the game by 7 points. Whenever we have a situation where our PR is way off from the line and we have a 2 points or less dog at home, we tend to look the other way, which is what we are doing here. We also like the fact that Yale was very flat last week as a 17-point favorite vs. Cornell and just squeaked out a 4-point win. We think this game is close, but we really like Yale to take care of business. The Sharps say...

3 UNITS - YALE (-2)

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Spartan
Dime Bet Lakers -3

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TONY GEORGE- Friday Night NBA Bookie Beater
Friday Night NBA Best Bet - Totals Winner. Off a big win last night on Brooklyn, I have singled out another Best Bet in the NBA tonight as a Totals Winner and we get some more cash from the books headed into the weekend. 70% ATS in the NBA in January and off to a fast start again this month, Catch a solid position on a No Sweat Winner Friday Night! CASH OUT!


Under 197.5 Indiana / Portland


Both offenses not up to par right now and neither team has broken 100 points on offense in their last 2 games, and in a battle of good team I like the Under when it is near 200 points in this one. 5 out of the la~st 7 have went under in this series and the Pacers against teams at home against a team with a winning road record are 4-0 ATS and the Blazers are 6-1-1 ATS on Unders their last 8 games and only scoring 91 ppg.

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Indian Cowboy
3* Columbia +8
5* Pistons -1.5

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Maddux

NBA
Brooklyn/Detroit over