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01:00 PM Pacific Rotation: 564
St. Bonaventure and Dayton are both 3-5 in conference play but the Bonnies have played a tougher conference schedule and using conference games only would favor St. Bon by 8 points in this game. My overall ratings favor the Bonnies by 4 ½ points and Bonaventure has a habit of bouncing back from conference losses under coach Mark Schmidt. St. Bonaventure struggled in Schmidt’s first season (2008/09) but since then the Bonnies are 31-13 ATS in conference games following a conference loss and they’re 25-4 ATS in conference games off a conference loss and spread loss as long as they’re not favored by more than 14 points. The Bonnies are also playing well at home again this season (9-1 straight up and 7-1 ATS) and they’re 28-10-1 ATS in their last 39 lined home games, including 16-4 ATS if hosting a team with a winning record. I’ll take St. Bonaventure in a 2-Star Best Bet at -3 points or less.
**VANDERBILT (+1) over Arkansas
01:00 PM Pacific Rotation: 568
Arkansas continues to struggle on the road, as the Razorbacks are 0-4 straight up and 0-3-1 ATS in 4 road games this season and 45-111-7 ATS since 1999 in road games when not getting at least 11 points. Arkansas looked like a pretty good team early in the season, going 11-2 in non-conference play, but 10 of those games were at home and most were against bad teams. The Hogs are just 3-6 in conference play (2-6-1 ATS) and they’ve had trouble getting easy shots against SEC competition (just 38.0% shooting). Vanderbilt is 5-4 straight up and 6-2-1 ATS in conference play and the Commodores have allowed just 39.2% shooting in SEC games. Arkansas needs to force turnovers to get easy buckets but their pressure defense doesn’t work as well away from home, as they’ve forced just 14.8 turnovers per game on the road, compared to 19.1 at home. My ratings favor Arkansas by just ½ a point using all games and a standard home court advantage but Arkansas’ road disadvantage is considerably higher than a normal team. Also, I get Vanderbilt by 2.8 points using conference games only for each team (and using a standard HCA), so the line value is on the side of the Commodores and I’ll play the trend again by going against the Razorbacks on the road. Arkansas has already lost on the road to two teams that are worse than Vanderbilt (Texas A&M and Georgia) andI’ll take Vanderbilt in a 2-Star Best Bet at -1 or better.
$500 NCAAB Play: Saint Joseph's +3 (bh) (-120) (Bovada)<------ (PENDING)
Key TRENDS for this game:Hawks are 10-1 ATS in their last 11 games following a double-digit loss at home.
Hawks are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games following a S.U. loss. Virginia Commonwealth is 5-10 ATS in its last 15 games on the road. Saint Joseph's is 11-3 SU in its last 14 games.
The Sheep
#614 S. Illinois -2 game
#1632 St Joeseph +1 1/2 1st half
#1606 Penn +1 1st Half
#1537 James Madison +4 1/2 1st half
#1668 Quinnipiac -3 1st half
#1669 SE Missouri State pk 1st half
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