2-17-14

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POINTWISE

COLLEGE BASKETBALL

(7:00) WILLIAM & MARY 72 - NC-Wilmington 55 _____ _____

(7:00) TOWSON 80 - Delaware 79 (NBCS) _____ _____

(7:00) North Carolina 76 - FLORIDA STATE 71 (ESPN) _____ _____

(9:00) Oklahoma State 72 - BAYLOR 62 (ESPN) _____ _____

BEST BETS
WILLIAM & MARY
OKLAHOMA STATE

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Canada still faves in men's hockey, USA closes gap
Andrew Caley

With the winners of the preliminary round of the Olympic men's hockey tournament all settled Team Canada is still the favorite to win the gold medal, but other teams are closing the gap.

At Sportsbook.ag, Canada has the best odds listed at +180, but Team USA is nipping at their heels at +200 after their strong play in the opening round of the tournament.

Russia and Sweden have the next best odds at +300 and +500 respectively. The playoff qualification round starts Tuesday.

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Handicapping tips for betting the Post-All-Star break NBA

The second half of the NBA season can be a different beast than pre-All-Star break action. With teams pushing for the postseason, fighting for seeding, or flushing their season down the crapper – in hopes of landing a high lottery pick – basketball bettors have many more pitfalls to watch out for down the home stretch of the schedule.

We asked some of Covers Experts’ top NBA handicappers to share their secrets to capping the post-break NBA schedule:

Teddy Covers – “Pretty good but not great teams that were ‘hot' before the break - think Phoenix, Toronto, Dallas and Atlanta - don't necessarily maintain their momentum once the second half begins and the intensity picks up. The very worst teams - Philadelphia, Milwaukee, Boston, Cleveland, the L.A. Lakers and Utah - often become unbackable, even in inflated pointspread ranges. The squads that have no incentive to play hard often don't. That being said, if a team or two on this list plays with effort on a nightly basis, they have second-half pointspread juggernaut potential.”

Marc Lawrence – “One of the things I look for are teams who struggled before the break, due mainly to injuries. They can be undervalued, especially if they were playing well before being bit by the injury bug and especially so if some of the wounded are back in uniform and on the court after the break.”

Sean Murphy – “Definitely motivation, whether for the playoffs or otherwise. The elite teams tend to ramp up for the playoffs, while other teams find motivation in the spoiler role. A team like the Miami Heat for example, that has been in cruise control for much of the season and posting a poor ATS record, could turn out to be a solid bet down the stretch with the oddsmakers over-adjusting. I think we tend to see teams' true colors once the calendar turns over to March.”

Doc’s Sports – “Bad teams normally get worse after the All-Star break and we think that will be even more the case this season. While teams won't be tanking, like the media would like to portray, the executives of those teams will make the moves that will give their team the least chance of success down the stretch. This year's draft class is one of the best in ages and some bad teams can change their fortunes for next season with a good draft position. So we think that favorites will be the play in the second half, and road favorites should stay a hot option with the disparity of talent on some teams right now. Also, bad defensive teams should start trying even less, so there will be some good spots to play the over on totals.”

Steve Merril – “I look to bet on Class-A teams in the second half, especially if they went into the All-Star break on a downward swing. I look to bet Over between two losing teams, especially as the season winds down, and bet Under between two Class-A teams, especially in fatigue spots.”

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Game of the Day: Oklahoma State at Baylor

Oklahoma State Cowboys at Baylor Bears (-4, 145)

While Marcus Smart was powerless to stop Oklahoma State from dropping its sixth straight game over the weekend, Baylor’s Kenny Chery put on a show many expect from the Cowboys’ star. The Bears, who host the Cowboys in a battle between the two most disappointing teams in the Big 12 on Monday, snapped a four-game home losing streak with Saturday’s double-overtime win against Kansas State. Chery finished with 20 points, 12 assists and 10 rebounds to post the sixth triple-double in school history.

Chery’s career game could serve as salt in the wound for Oklahoma State and Smart, who sat out Saturday’s loss to Oklahoma and will miss Monday as he completes his three-game suspension for shoving Texas Tech fan Jeff Orr on Feb. 8. The Cowboys are in the midst of their longest losing streak since 2008 after beginning conference play with a 4-2 mark and, like Baylor, face an uphill battle to qualify for the NCAA Tournament without a strong finish. Oklahoma State could help its cause with a win on the road, where it is 1-5 in league play.

TV: 9 p.m. ET, ESPN

LINE HISTORY: The Bears are early 4-point faves.

COVERS POWER RANKINGS: Oklahoma State (-9.1) - Baylor Bears (-1.0) - Home Court (-3.0) = Oklahoma State -5.1

INJURY WATCH: Oklahoma State - Marcus Smart (Out - suspension)

WHAT BOOKS SAY: “(Marcus Smart is) so talented defensively, and that’s what Okie State will miss the most when he is out." - Mike Perry, Sportsbook.ag.

WHAT SHARPS SAY: "Baylor won outright in the earlier meeting as an 11.5-point road underdog, which is a bit surprising considering the home team is still 12-3 ATS in the past 15 meetings in this series and both teams have played better at home this year. In fact, when excluding neutral court games, the home team is 29-11 SU in all Oklahoma State and Baylor games this season." - Covers Expert Steve Merril.

ABOUT OKLAHOMA STATE (16-9 SU, 8-13 ATS, 13-8 O/U): Phil Forte III entered Saturday 41-of-41 from the foul line at home, but went 1-of-4 as the Cowboys missed 10 of their 22 free throws in a 77-74 loss. Four of the team’s last five setbacks have been by six points or fewer and fatigue may be playing a factor as the starters have played 341 of a possible 400 minutes over the last two games. “We had some tired guys out there…they're down. This is as down of a locker room that I've seen,” coach Travis Ford told reporters after the game.

ABOUT BAYLOR (16-9 SU, 7-11-1 ATS, 11-7 O/U): Isaiah Austin – the Bears’ athletic 7-1 center – took advantage of an undersized Kansas State front line with a career-high nine blocks and could enjoy similar success against the Cowboys, who do not give regular minutes to a player taller than 6-8 Kamari Murphy. Brady Heslip, who drained half of Baylor’s season-high 16 3-pointers in Wednesday’s rout of Texas Christian, went 1-of-8 beyond the arc on Saturday. Heslip had knocked down 26 of his previous 49 3-point attempts since joining the starting lineup five games earlier.

TRENDS:

* Home team is 12-3 ATS in the last 15 meetings.
* Over is 5-2 in the last seven meetings in Baylor.
* Underdog is 4-1 ATS in the last five meetings.
* Cowboys are 0-4 ATS in the last four meetings.
* Cowboys are 0-7 ATS in the last seven meetings in Baylor.

COVERS CONSENSUS: 64.5 percent of the wagers are on Baylor -4.

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Cappers Access

N. Carolina +1
Baylor -4

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NCAAB

Monday, February 17

Wm Mary (-3) beat NC-Wilmington 54-50 Feb 5, their third win in row vs Seahawks, who were 1-6 from line. Tribe won five of its last seven games, but both losses were at home. CAA home favorites of 9+ points are 3-5 vs spread. UNCW won two of last three games after starting out 0-10 in CAA; they're 4-2-1 as road underdogs; six of their seven losses on road came by 9 or less points, or in overtime.

Delaware won its last 13 games, is 11-0 in CAA; they were underdogs in three of four CAA road games. Blue Hens (-6.5) beat Towson 83-76 Jan 25, in foulfest with both sides taking 39+ FTs. CAA home favorites of 5 or less points are 4-15 vs spread. First road game in 19 days for Hens-- seven of their 10 CAA wins are by 7 or less points. Towson won four home games in a row- they're 3-3 as a CAA home favorite.

North Carolina won/covered its last six games; this is trap game, since they play Duke Thursday, but Tar Heels won at Ga Tech/Notre Dame in last two road games, after losing first three. UNC won five of last six vs Florida State, sweeping FSU by 5-21-21 points LY. Seminoles lost five of last seven games- they're 3-3 at home in ACC. ACC home teams are 8-19 vs spread in games with spread of 4 or less points.

Oklahoma State lost its last six games, losing by 12-4-19 points in last three road games; this is last game of Smart's 3-game suspension. OSU lost 76-70 (-11) at home to Baylor Feb 1- Bears made 11-23 from arc. Cowboys lost last three visits to Waco by 19-41-10 points. Baylor won in double OT Saturday, its second win in row after a 1-7 skid. Big X home favorites of less than 5 points are 7-3 vs spread.

Weber State won nine of last ten games, covered last three; they're 3-1 as road favorites, winning road games by 12-9-20 points, with losses at No Colorado/Sacramento. Wildcats won three in row, 10 of last 11 games vs Idaho State, winning 65-59 (-9) at home Jan 20; Wildcats made 12 of 25 from arc, were -7 (13-6) in turnovers. Big Sky home underdogs of 6 or less points are 11-5. Bengals are 5-2 at home (both losses are by 5).

Davidson (-22) beat Citadel 62-43 at home Feb 1, but they trailed by a point early in second half; Wildcats won their last eight games, are 6-0 as SoCon road favorites, with five road wins by 11+ points. Citadel is 2-7 vs spread in last nine games; they're 1-3 as home underdogs, losing by 4-5-13-18-21 points at home. SoCon home underdogs are 2-15 against the spread. Davidson is making 45.8% of its 3's in league play.

Georgia State lost at Troy Saturday, its first Sun Belt loss in 11 games; Panthers are 2-3 as home favorites, winning home games by 9-1-26-20-10 points- they covered five of last seven games overall. Texas State is 2-3 as road underdog, losing road games by 23-5-4-7 points- they're 4-1 vs spread in last five games overall. Sun Belt home favorites of 8 or less points are 5-10 vs spread. Georgia State has 3-game lead for #1 seed.

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Soccer Crusher
Lens + Le Havre UNDER 2.5
This match is happening in France
(System Record: 526-18, won last 2 games and a push)
Overall Record: 526-451-76


Basketball Crusher
North Carolina-Wilmington +10 over William & Mary
(System Record: 45-7, lost last 4 games and a push)
Overall Record: 45-63-3

Rest of the Plays
Idaho State +4 over Weber State
Baylor -4 over Oklahoma St
North Carolina +1 over Florida St

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NCAA Basketball Picks

Oklahoma State at Baylor

The Cowboys look to snap a six-game losing streak as they head to Baylor tonight to face a Bears team that is 1-4 ATS in its last 5 home games. Oklahoma State is the pick (+4 1/2) according to Dunkel, which has the game Even. Dunkel Pick: Oklahoma State (+4 1/2). Here are all of today's games.

MONDAY, FEBRUARY 17 Time Posted: 8:00 a.m. EST

Game 701-702: NC-Wilmington at William & Mary (7:00 p.m. EST) Dunkel Ratings: NC-Wilmington 44.057; William & Mary 56.461 Dunkel Line: William & Mary by 12 1/2 Vegas Line: William & Mary by 10 Dunkel Pick: William & Mary (-10)

Game 703-704: Delaware at Towson (7:00 p.m. EST) Dunkel Ratings: Delaware 57.992; Towson 55.848 Dunkel Line: Delaware by 2; 147 Vegas Line: Towson by 3 1/2; 151 1/2 Dunkel Pick: Delaware (+3 1/2); Under

Game 705-706: North Carolina at Florida State (7:00 p.m. EST) Dunkel Ratings: North Carolina 68.976; Florida State 64.957 Dunkel Line: North Carolina by 4; 138 Vegas Line: Florida State by 1; 143 Dunkel Pick: North Carolina (+1); Under

Game 707-708: Oklahoma State at Baylor (9:00 p.m. EST) Dunkel Ratings: Oklahoma State 68.093; Baylor 68.172 Dunkel Line: Even; 147 Vegas Line: Baylor by 4 1/2; 142 1/2 Dunkel Pick: Oklahoma State (+4 1/2); Over

Game 709-710: Weber State at Idaho State (9:00 p.m. EST) Dunkel Ratings: Weber State 53.408; Idaho State 51.421 Dunkel Line: Weber State by 2 Vegas Line: Weber State by 4 1/2 Dunkel Pick: Idaho State (+4 1/2)

Game 711-712: Davidson at The Citadel (7:00 p.m. EST) Dunkel Ratings: Davidson 59.556; The Citadel 38.152 Dunkel Line: Davidson by 21 1/2 Vegas Line: Davidson by 15 1/2 Dunkel Pick: Davidson (-15 1/2)

Game 713-714: Texas State at Georgia State (7:30 p.m. EST) Dunkel Ratings: Texas State 48.903; Georgia State 65.574 Dunkel Line: Georgia State by 16 1/2 Vegas Line: Georgia State by 13 1/2 Dunkel Pick: Georgia State (-13 1/2)

Game 721-722: Mississippi Valley State at Southern (9:00 p.m. EST) Dunkel Ratings: Mississippi Valley State 36.494; Southern 56.600 Dunkel Line: Southern by 20; 147 Vegas Line: Southern by 15; 142 Dunkel Pick: Southern (-15); Over

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Mighty Quinn

Mighty missed with Michigan (-4 1/2) on Sunday and likes Delaware on Monday.

The deficit is 255 sirignanos.

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Jeff Grant

Florida St. -1

Delaware Over 151.5

Oklahoma State +4

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RightSideValue Plays


UNC PK +100

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Chase Diamond

10* Oklahoma St +4½

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Paul Leiner

100* Florida State -1

50* Towson -3

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Diamond Dog Sports

3.5* North Carolina +1