2-18-14

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Today's NBA Picks

Toronto at Washington

The Raptors (28-24) head to Washington tonight to face a Wizards team that is 7-1 ATS in its last 8 games against a team with a winning SU record. Washington is the pick (-3) according to Dunkel, which has the Wizards favored by 6. Dunkel Pick: Washington (-3). Here are all of today's picks.

TUESDAY, FEBRUARY 18 Time Posted: 7:30 a.m. EST

Game 501-502: Cleveland at Philadelphia (7:00 p.m. EST) Dunkel Ratings: Cleveland 115.139; Philadelphia 104.298 Dunkel Line & Total: Cleveland by 11; 204 Vegas Line & Total: Cleveland by 4; 209 1/2 Dunkel Pick: Cleveland (-4); Under

Game 503-504: Toronto at Washington (7:00 p.m. EST) Dunkel Ratings: Toronto 118.687; Washington 124.892 Dunkel Line & Total: Washington by 6; 202 Vegas Line & Total: Washington by 3; 195 Dunkel Pick: Washington (-3); Over

Game 505-506: Atlanta at Indiana (7:00 p.m. EST) Dunkel Ratings: Atlanta 114.054; Indiana 126.852 Dunkel Line & Total: Indiana by 13; 187 Vegas Line & Total: Indiana by 10; 192 Dunkel Pick: Indiana (-10); Under

Game 507-508: Charlotte at Detroit (7:30 p.m. EST) Dunkel Ratings: Charlotte 114.684; Detroit 121.935 Dunkel Line & Total: Detroit by 7 1/2; 209 Vegas Line & Total: Detroit by 4 1/2; 204 1/2 Dunkel Pick: Detroit (-4 1/2); Over

Game 509-510: New York at Memphis (8:00 p.m. EST) Dunkel Ratings: New York 116.297; Memphis 122.153 Dunkel Line & Total: Memphis by 6; 202 Vegas Line & Total: No Line Dunkel Pick: N/A

Game 511-512: Orlando at Milwaukee (8:00 p.m. EST) Dunkel Ratings: Orlando 114.824; Milwaukee 110.980 Dunkel Line & Total: Orlando by 4; 187 Vegas Line & Total: Orlando by 2; 194 Dunkel Pick: Orlando (-2); Under

Game 513-514: Miami at Dallas (8:30 p.m. EST) Dunkel Ratings: Miami 124.935; Dallas 121.113 Dunkel Line & Total: Miami by 4; 212 Vegas Line & Total: Miami by 2; 208 Dunkel Pick: Miami (-2); Over

Game 515-516: Phoenix at Denver (9:00 p.m. EST) Dunkel Ratings: Phoenix 119.258; Denver 112.246 Dunkel Line & Total: Phoenix by 7; 195 Vegas Line & Total: No Line Dunkel Pick: N/A

Game 517-518: San Antonio at LA Clippers (10:30 p.m. EST) Dunkel Ratings: San Antonio 117.651; LA Clippers 128.683 Dunkel Line & Total: LA Clippers by 11; 215 Vegas Line & Total: LA Clippers by 4 1/2; 211 Dunkel Pick: LA Clippers (-4 1/2); Over

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Gamblers Data

Free Plays Tuesday

Cavs -4

Mavs +2

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Free Selection from Arthur Ralph Sports

Free Play 7-2 RUN TUES San Diego St -10

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Mighty Quinn

Mighty missed with Delaware (+3) on Monday and likes Iowa State on Tuesday.

The deficit is 310 sirignanos.

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StatFox Super Situations™ - FoxSheets

NBA TORONTO at WASHINGTON
Play Against - Any team (WASHINGTON) revenging a straight up loss vs opponent as a favorite, off a cover where the team lost the game straight up as an underdog
237-144 since 1997. ( 62.2% 78.6 units )
3-5 this year. ( 37.5% -2.5 units )

NBA ATLANTA at INDIANA
Play Against - Road teams vs. the money line (ATLANTA) revenging a loss vs opponent against opponent off an upset loss as a home favorite
176-56 over the last 5 seasons. ( 75.9% 67.0 units )
12-4 this year. ( 75.0% 6.0 units )

NBA ATLANTA at INDIANA
Play Over - All teams where the first half total is between 95.5 and 100.5 points extremely well rested team - playing 3 or less games in 10 days against opponent extremely well rested team - playing 5 or less games in 14 days
34-11 over the last 5 seasons. ( 75.6% 21.9 units )

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StatFox Super Situations™ - FoxSheets

CBB WAKE FOREST at MARYLAND
Play On - Underdogs of 10 or more points (WAKE FOREST) after failing to cover 5 or 6 of their last 7 against the spread against opponent after having covered 4 of their last 5 against the spread
98-51 over the last 5 seasons. ( 65.8% 41.9 units )
10-5 this year. ( 66.7% 4.5 units )

CBB GEORGE WASHINGTON at RICHMOND
Play Against - Road teams with a money line of +135 to -155 (GEORGE WASHINGTON) off a loss against a conference rival against opponent off 3 straight wins against conference rivals
83-40 since 1997. ( 67.5% 37.6 units )
4-1 this year. ( 80.0% 2.6 units )

CBB S FLORIDA at LOUISVILLE
Play On - A home team vs. the 1rst half line (LOUISVILLE) off a home win scoring 85 or more points, on Tuesday nights
277-173 since 1997. ( 61.6% 86.7 units )
17-15 this year. ( 53.1% 0.5 units )

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River City Sharps

CBB
South Florida at Louisville
We got to see the Cards Sunday up and close and personal at the Yum Center as they absolutely dismantled a bad Rutgers team, 102-54. The big knock on the Cardinals is that they really don't have many quality wins, and that is probably true. Here's another fact...when they play inferior teams, they absolutely pound them! They are number one in the nation in adjusted scoring margin (by a large margin) and the first time these two teams played at USF, the Cardinals put a 39-point beatdown on the Bulls. We had a really nice 4 Unit Diamond winner with UConn over USF last week and while we aren't going to shine up a Diamond tonight, we think this is a solid 3 unit play. The Bulls are really a mess right now, losers of 4 of their last 5 games. Meanwhile, the Cardinals are really getting on a roll, winning 8 of their last 9 games. We could give you lots of stats and reasons why Louisville wins and covers, but as most of you know, we are based in Louisville and see this team play a lot of games. They pass the "eye test" for us and we really like the vibe coming from this team right now. They are loose, Pitino and the coaching staff are having fun and they have a lot of good energy. Don't be afriad laying the big number....Cardinals laying BIG LUMBER! The Sharps say...

3 UNITS - LOUISVILLE (-22)

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World Class Capper

NCAAB
3* Syracuse vs Clemson - over 120 points @ -110
Starts at 7:00 PM est

NBA
3* Magic -2 point spread @ -110
Starts at 8:00 PM est

3* Clippers vs Spurs - over 211 @ -110
Starts at 10:35 PM est

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Sweet Jones 55

Suns -2.5

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Paul Leiner

100* Spurs / Clippers Over 210

100* Clemson -3.5

50* Tennessee -9.5

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Cappers Access

Iowa St -4.5
Mississippi +4.5
Indiana U +3

[golden contender]

GC: NBA Play

NBA Back from the All Star Break Rest or Rust Preview


In the Past we have provided some nice material on the relevance of teams playing with 3 or more days rest. However there are far more occurrences of teams playing in the regular season with 3 or more days rest, than their are with 4 or more days. With that in mind we decided to delve into the database and gear this data more towards the extra days.

Below are some interesting indicators on how NBA Teams have done when playing with extended rest of 4+ days the past few years. Such is the case this week as play resumes after the All star Break with each team having at least 5 days off prior to their last game. The teams are posted in alphabetical order according to their nickname

Charlotte Bobcats have played over in 5 of the last 6 games with 4 or more days rest

Milwaukee Bucks are 1-3 ats with 4 days rest with 3 of the 4 games posting over the total

Chicago Bulls have played over 8 straight times with 4 or more days rest

Cleveland Cavaliers are 4-0 to the spread when playing with 4+ days off

Boston Celtics are 2-8 to the spread with 4+ days rest including 0-3 at home

LA .Clippers are a dismal 2-14 ats with 4+days losing and have lost 16 of 18 straight up

Memphis Grizzlies are 3-1 to the spread with the extended rest of 4 or more days

Atlanta Hawks are 2-6 to the spread with 5 of the last 7 staying under the total

Utah Jazz are 1-6 to the spread with the extra rest and 4-1 to the spread if they are at home

Sacramento is one of the better long term teams with 4+ rest going 20-9 straight up and ats

New York Knicks have flown over 8 straight times with 4 or more days rest

LA. Lakers are a solid 7-0 straight up and ats with 4 or more days rest

Orlando Magic are 1-4 to the spread with 4+ days rest and 3 of the last 4 have played over

Dallas Mavericks are 7-1 Over at home with 4+ days rest and 1-4 straight up and ats the last 5.

Brooklyn Nets have posted over the total in 9 of the last 10 with 4+ days rest

Denver Nuggets love the extra rest as they are a tremendous 10-1 straight up and ats.

Indiana Pacers are 4-1 to the spread with 4 or more days rest

New Orleans Pelican are 5-0 to the over and have covered 3 of the last 4 with 4+ days rest

Detroit Pistons are 10-21 to the spread with 4+ rest including a dismal 0-6 ats at home

Toronto Raptors have stayed under in 8 of the last 8 games with the Extended rest

Houston Rockets are on a 10-1 straight streak when playing with 4 or more days off

Philadelphia Seventy Sixers have seen the favorite go 6-1 to the spread in games where they have 4+ rest

San Antonio Spurs are 1-5 ats and have played over in 4 of the last 5 with the extra days off

Phoenix Suns are 4-1 to the spread and have gone under in 3 of the last 4 with 4+ days off

Oklahoma City is a perfect 6-0 to the spread at home with 4 or more days off

Minnesota Timberwolves are 10-3 to the over long term with 4+ days of rest

Portland Trailblazers are on a tough 1-7 spread run with 4+ days off as rest is rust for them

Golden State Warriors are 1-4 straight up and ats and 9 of 12 have played over with the extra rest

Washington Wizards have played over in 6 of 8 games with 4 or more days off.

Our League wide NBA system dates to 1995. We start the query looking at home teams to see how if they have an advantage with the basic premise of having 4+ days off. Is the Rest helpful or does it cause rust. As it turns out all teams at home the past 19+ years are actually under 50%. If we place that home team on the road in their prior game, we are still going no where fast as they are just a 53% proposition at 151-132 to the spread. Adding parameters as we go, we looked at teams that scored 110 or more on the road in their last game and we finally see things start to take shape. These home teams off high scoring road games, have covered over 72% of the time at 29-11 ats. Never satisfied we continue to dig. We insisted this home team did their damage as an underdog and the system kindly climbed the percentage ladder to 77% at 14-4. Right at this point we could warrant a play. However if we add one more little nugget adding this teams opponent was favored in their last game. The system now escalates to 87% at 7-1 straight up and ats for our home team. Ironically the system has cashed the last 7 times. Tonight's team in applications is on the Washington Wizards over the Toronto Raptors. Repeating the system, we are playing on any home team since 1995 with 4 or more days rest, that scored 110 or more points as a road dog in their last game and are taking on a team that was favored in their last game .While the sample is small these teams have won by an average 9 points per game. So we will back the Washington Wizards. See the system below

SU: 7-1 87.5%)
ATS: 7-1

Final
Team 103.4
Opp 94.5

Date Link Day Season Team Opp Site Final Rest Line Total SUm ATSm OUm DPS DPA SUr ATSr OUr ot
Dec 05, 1995 Tue 1995 Jazz Rockets home 100-103 4&2 -4.5 204.5 -3 -7.5 -1.5 -4.5 3.0 L L U False
Mar 13, 1996 Wed 1995 Pelicans Jazz home 91-85 4&0 3.0 204.5 6 9.0 -28.5 -9.8 -18.8 W W U False
Feb 10, 1998 Tue 1997 Trailblazers Lakers home 117-105 5&5 4.5 200.5 12 16.5 21.5 19.0 2.5 W W O False
Feb 22, 2005 Tue 2004 Bulls Heat home 105-101 5&5 4.0 200.0 4 8.0 6.0 7.0 -1.0 W W O 1
Feb 17, 2009 Tue 2008 Knicks Spurs home 112-107 5&5 4.0 208.0 5 9.0 11.0 10.0 1.0 W W O 1
Feb 17, 2009 Tue 2008 Pacers Seventysixers home 100-91 5&5 -2.5 211.0 9 6.5 -20.0 -6.8 -13.2 W W U 0
Jun 04, 2009 Thu 2008 Lakers Magic home 100-75 5&4 -6.0 205.5 25 19.0 -30.5 -5.8 -24.8 W W U 0
Jun 03, 2010 recap Thu 2009 Lakers Celtics home 102-89 4&5 -5.5 192.0 13 7.5 -1.0 3.2 -4.2 W W U 0

Feb 18, 2014 recap Tue 2013 Wizards Raptors home 5&5

There are 4 Big NBA Back from the Break system Play on Tuesday. Two are Sides and 2 are totals + the NCAAB Game of the week. All plays are from system cashing 92% or higher and two are Perfect since 1995. Last year we cashed all 8 plays the first 3 days after the Al Star Break. Jump on and cash. For the free play take Washington. GC

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Jordan Sharp

NBA Dallas Over 207

NBA Toronto Under 195.5

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Sports Wagers

Toronto @ WASHINGTON
Toronto +143 over WASHINGTON

The Wizards lost four of five before the break but in reality they could be on a five-game winning streak because three of those four losses were decided by three points or less and the other loss occurred in OT. That set of losses occurred against Houston, Memphis, San Antonio and a suddenly warm Cavaliers squad. However, the Wizards are still two games below .500 and they have trouble with the Raptors. In two games against the Raps this season, Washington is 0-2, having lost by 13 and eight points respectively. Interestingly enough, the Wizards hosted the Raps the first game back after last year’s All-Star break and lost 96-88. That Raptor team was far worse than this one.
The Raps are playoff bound and of all the teams in the Association, the Raps may be the most anxious to get back on the floor. The Raptors have the third-best record in the East but four teams are within 3½ games. With six of its next eight games at home, Toronto has a chance to solidify its position behind Indiana and Miami. Toronto won two in a row before the break and six of its past nine. The Raps have an edge in every area over the Wizards which include rebounding, points per game, defense, turnovers and a stronger bench. Psychologically, the Raps have an edge in that department too, as they keep defeating this team. No reason they can’t do so again here.

Orlando @ MILWAUKEE
Orlando -2 -109 over MILWAUKEE
It’s not customary for us to spot road points with a team that is 22 games under .500 but the Magic are so much better than their record indicates and that makes them an undervalued squad. Victor Oladipo is mounting a push for Rookie of the Year. The 21-year-old guard averaged 19 points on 60 percent shooting in consecutive victories over the Pistons, Thunder and Pacers just before the break, as the Magic matched their season-high winning streak of three before losing to Memphis by just five points. The Magic have a host of veterans (Arron Afflalo, Jameer Nelson and Glen Davis) about whom playoff-minded teams will be calling at the deadline and if these guys want out of Orlando with a chance to play for a contender, they’ll be auditioning now. With a great core of youth along with the aforementioned vets, the Magic are very playable spotting a bucket against this putrid host.The Bucks beat the Knicks couple of weeks ago for their second victory of 2014. Also worth pointing out: It's February. After that win, Milwaukee went on to lose four in a row before the break, which includes a 16-point home loss to Boston. The Bucks hold a five-game lead for the worst record and will be without Larry Sanders for at least six weeks. But, hey, have you seen Giannis Antetokounmpo's hands? The Bucks are always fade material when the spot is six points or less and this one is no exception.



San Antonio @ L.A. CLIPPERS -4½
L.A. CLIPPERS -4½ -109 over San Antonio

The Spurs won five of seven before the break but the victories occurred against Boston, Charlotte, Washington, New Orleans and Sacramento. The Spurs two losses occurred against Detroit and at Brooklyn by 14 points. The Spurs started Tiago Splitter, Danny Green, Marco Belinelli, Corey Joseph and Nando De Colo in the game versus the Nets and come into this one with several key injuries still hanging over them. The Spurs played six consecutive road games before the break and still have three more to go on this current, season-long, nine game trip. The Spurs have dropped four in a row to teams above .500 and all of them have been by seven points or more and this opponent is as potent as any of them.
The Clippers boast the NBA's best offense (113.6 points per 100 possessions) since New Year's Day despite having Chris Paul for only four games during that stretch. With Paul fully healed, expect Los Angeles to be even more lethal. The Clip Joint is on a three-game winning streak with wins over Toronto by 13, Philly by 45 and Portland by five. The Clippers have to establish themselves as a contender and after losing to San Antonio by 24 points in the last meeting back in January, they figure to come into this one intent on sending a message. Frankly, the Clip Joint couldn’t have handpicked a better time to face the Spurs.

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Bryan Leonard GOM Villanova -4.5