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#529 Louisville @ CINCINNATI
#529 Louisville -3½ -110 over CINCINNATI
12:00 PM EST. The Bearcats defeated the Cardinals back in Louisville on January 30th and that’s the first thing we love about this game. It’s difficult for an inferior team to defeat a superior team once, let along twice within a month. The Bearcats have had a season in which every bounce has gone their way. Cinci’s season is filled with fringe victories over fringe teams and a few single digit victories over complete dregs. The Bearcats three losses this season is a miracle that is on par with the USA’s 1980 Olympic Hockey team. This is not a 24-3 team and their #7 ranking is a complete joke because the Bearcats aren’t even a top 30 team. The Bearcats have one player they can rely on in Sean Kilpatrick and after him production dips to the point of being near non-existent. if the Cardinals show up here, and we assure you they will, they will roll over these imposters in the much the same way Xavier and SMU did.
Louisville is ranked lower than Cincinnati. Not only is that ludicrous, it’s enough motivation for the Cardinals to bring it all here. Louisville is 1½-games behind the Bearcats in the American for the top seed in the Conference. When they lost to Cinci, the Cardinals dug themselves a huge hole by falling behind by 17 points. They rallied and took a one-point lead but they also failed to score in the final five minutes and ended up losing by just three. Louisville is a defensive-minded powerhouse that has seen Kilpatrick and will make all the adjustments to take him out of his comfort zone. We’re not big on laying road points in big conference games but let’s look at that for a sec. Cincinnati is ranked #7, Louisville is ranked #22, yet #22 is favored by 3½ on the road. You do the math. The oddsmakers did and they know that the Bearcats are incorrectly ranked. The truth is revealed here.
Our Pick: #529 Louisville -3½ -110 (Risking 2.2 units - To Win: 2.00)
St. John’s @ VILLANOVA
St. John’s +9 -110 over VILLANOVA
1:30 PM EST. We get an inflated price here on the Johnnies for two reasons. The first reason is that the Wildcats are ranked #9 in the country and ranked programs are almost always overpriced. Secondly, St. John’s is without forward Orlando Sanchez because of the birth of his daughter and they could be without their starting center also, as Chris Obekpa sprained his ankle last week, although he’s a game time decision. The oddsmakers have this information also and in a high profile game like this, an overreaction to injuries by the public forces the oddsmakers to inflate the number and that applies here. What we like is that Villanova may not be as jacked up as the Johnnies here. The Wildcats have secured their spot in the tournament and have already played the toughest portion of their schedule. Villanova’s last two games of the season against Xavier and Georgetown are still a couple weeks away and the team could be a little out of focus until then. Villanova is coming off a blowout loss to Creighton (they’ve been blown out twice by Creighton this season) and a subsequent double OT win in Providence against the Friars on Thursday night. The Wildcats have done a ton of traveling lately, playing their last three and six of their last eight on the road.
For the Johnnies, this game is huge. St. John’s is on the bubble right now and could get in with some key victories down the stretch. The Red Storm is smoking hot right now. They have won six in a row and nine of their past 10 with only loss over that span occurring in Creighton by just three points It was the closest the Bluejays have come to losing on their home floor all season and in the rematch game back at St. John’s, the Red Storm defeated Creighton by five. The Johnnies can afford a losing a player or two because they operate with a nine-man rotation and every player is as important as the next. Steve Lavin has this team peaking at the right time and in perhaps its biggest game of the season and in a much better situational spot than the Wildcats, we like the Johnnies to stay well within this margin and perhaps even pull off the upset.
Our Pick: #537 St. John’s +9 -110 (Risking 2.2 units - To Win: 2.00)
La Salle @ RICHMOND
La Salle +4 -101 over RICHMOND
1:00 PM EST. The Spiders 7-4 conference record and 17-9 overall record is better record than the Explorers 4-7 conference mark and 12-13 overall mark. Are the Spiders that much better than the Explorers? We say nay. Richmond has defeated the teams they were supposed to beat but its out-of-conference schedule was filed with victories over a bunch of cream puffs that includes Fairfield, James Madison, Air Force, Coppin State and Old Dominion among others. The Spiders also lost to Northeastern (9-19) and every decent team they’ve played against this season that includes, Florida, Ohio, North Carolina, Minnesota, the Bonnies, Saint Louis and VCU. In fact, Richmond doesn’t have a signature win this entire year unless you want to include UMass, a game they won by three. The Spiders are a poor rebounding team, their guard play is not even average and they don’t shoot too well either, ranking 2o8th in the country in FG %.
La Salle is the forgotten team in the A-10 and there is good reason for that. The Explorers have lost an incredible four in row and seven of its past eight conference games. How can that be? This is a team that reached the Sweet-16 last year and brings back just about every key member from that squad, yet they keep losing. La Salle doesn’t have any signature wins either but they have played a tougher schedule than the Spiders (ranked 54th to Richmond’s 96th) and they’ve also underachieved the entire year. La Salle is going to get warm at some point before the season ends. This team has too much talent to keep losing at this pace and the oddsmakers haven’t made them very enticing here by spotting them just four points. That prompts us to buy low and step in on these Explorers in a game in which the line tells us they have a great chance of winning outright.
Our Pick: #582 La Salle +4 -101 (Risking 2.02 units - To Win: 2.00)
New Orleans @ WASHINGTON
WASHINGTON -6 -110 over New Orleans
We’re not sure how much the Pelicans will have left in the tank here. New Orleans played last night in Charlotte and they were fighting an uphill battle the entire night. New Orleans was down the whole game by 8-10 points and finally made a late run to tie it up late in the fourth. However, the Pelicans could not finish and that fourth quarter, combined with another loss had to take a toll. Two Days prior, the Pelicans were fighting it all night again in New ans were fighting it all night again in New York in a seven-point loss. New Orleans has now lost four of its last five with only victory over that span occurring against Milwaukee by four lousy points. The Pelicans return home after this one to play the Clippers on Monday and may show up in body only here.
The Wizards should be primed and ready to go here. The came off the break with a loss to Toronto but responded by blowing out the Hawks the very next night. That was Tuesday and Wednesday and so the Wizards come into this one as the much more rested club. The Wizards backcourt of John Wall and Bradley Beal is among the best in the business and the addition of Andre Miller, who figures to be very hungry after sitting since Dec. 30, only adds to the Wizards already strong backcourt. Miller reunites with Wizards coach Randy Wittman, who coached Miller when he was a rookie in 1999-2000 and Wittman was a rookie head coach with Cleveland. The Wizards have many distinct advantages in this game that includes, health, rest, and perhaps most importantly, a far superior defense. In a good scheduling spot for the Wizards, the Pelicans may hang around early but this visitor has been fighting too many uphill battles lately to hang around late.
Our Pick
WASHINGTON -6 -110 (Risking 2.2 units - To Win: 2.00)
Syracuse is 25-1 this year and should not be a 6.5 point dog against anyone. Syracuse beat Duke by 2 earlier this year at home. Syracuse is 6-0 on the road this year as well and they have covered their last 5 road games. Syracuse has covered 6 of 7 on the road vs a team with a winning record and a winning home record greater than .600. Duke has failed to cover 4 in a row at home vs a team with a road winning percentage over .600. Look for this to be a 3 point game either way and we will take the number 1 ranked team in the country as a dog.
Dominic Brando's Inner Circle
All 1 Unit NCAA plays
Harvard ML -130 over Princeton
Stanford ML -125 over UCLA
Youngstown State +7/-125 over Valparaiso
Kansas -10 over Texas
Cal Northridge +7/-130 over Cal Irvine
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