3-2-14

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NASCAR heads to Phoenix Sunday
by Brian Graham

NASCAR Sprint Cup Series
The Profit on CNBC 500

Sunday, March 2 – 3:00 p.m. EDT
Phoenix International Raceway – Phoenix, AZ
With the Daytona 500 now completed, the NASCAR circuit shifts west to Phoenix for Sunday's The Profit on CNBC 500. Phoenix International Raceway is a one-mile, tri-oval track completed in 1964. It was built with bankings measuring 11° on turns 1 and 2, a 9-degree banking on the 1,551-foot (0.29 miles) backstretch and a near-flat 3° frontstretch measuring 1,179 feet (0.22 miles). Kevin Harvick won the most recent race at this track last November, while Carl Edwards took home the victory in the March race that was called the Subway Fresh Fit 500.

Odds to Win Race

Driver Odds
Jimmie Johnson 6-to-1
Denny Hamlin 7-to-1
Kyle Busch 15-to-2
Kevin Harvick 9-to-1
Matt Kenseth 9-to-1
Brad Keselowski 10-to-1
Dale Earnhardt Jr. 10-to-1
Jeff Gordon 11-to-1
Tony Stewart 11-to-1
Kasey Kahne 14-to-1
Kurt Busch 14-to-1
Carl Edwards 16-to-1
Clint Bowyer 20-to-1
Joey Logano 25-to-1
Greg Biffle 33-to-1
Ryan Newman 33-to-1
Martin Truex Jr. 40-to-1
Austin Dillon 50-to-1
Brian Vickers 50-to-1
Jamie McMurray 50-to-1
Ricky Stenhouse Jr. 50-to-1
Marcos Ambrose 75-to-1
Paul Menard 75-to-1
Kyle Larson 100-to-1

Drivers to Watch

Kevin Harvick (9/1) - These odds are extremely favorable for a driver who has three top-2 finishes (two wins, one runner-up) in the past four races at this track. The No. 29 car always competes well on one-mile tracks, and since 2006, Harvick has three wins and nine top-7 finishes in 16 starts at Phoenix. At 9-to-1, he not only represents the best value on the board, but is our pick to win Sunday's race.

Ryan Newman (33/1) - Newman has always raced well at Phoenix in his career. In 23 starts at this track, he's grabbed the pole four times, and has posted eight top-5 finishes. This includes five top-5's in his past eight starts, winning the 2010 Subway Fresh Fit 600, and then placing 2nd, 5th, 5th, 21st and 5th in five Phoenix races before a crash and 10th-place finish last year. What's more impressive about this run is that his average start in these eight races was 15.1, as he started no better than 6th in any of these races. With such darkhorse odds, Newman is certainly worthy of a small wager on Sunday.

Jimmie Johnson (6/1) - Johnson is understandably the favorite at this race, because he's been outstanding in Phoenix over the years, finishing outside the top-10 just four times in 21 starts at this track. This includes a pair of top-3 showings last season. All four of his Phoenix wins have come since 2007, and in the past seven spring starts in the desert, he has finished 4th, 1st, 4th, 3rd, 3rd, 4th and 2nd last year. With that kind of track record, a small wager is warranted for this race favorite.

Greg Biffle (33/1) - Biffle began his season with a bang, starting 25th, but finishing 8th in the Daytona 500, which he led for eight laps. Although he's never won at Phoenix, he's been awfully close with two career runner-ups (2005 and 2007) and four top-7 finishes in his past 10 starts at Phoenix. He placed 3rd in the 2012 Subway Fresh Fit 500, and came in 7th place in the AdvoCare 500 that following November. These odds are too tempting to completely ignore.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Five steps to safely bet MLB Spring Training action
by Jason Logan

Betting MLB Spring Training is right up there with eating that week-old slice of pizza at the back of your fridge and lending your car to that sweet girl with the tramp stamp you met at the bar last night (she said she had to pick up her aunt from the hospital) – not the best idea.

But for those of you dealing with massive intestinal discomfort or the ones describing your 1997 Isuzu Trooper to the local police, you know that sometimes you just can’t help yourself.

If you are going to bet on Cactus and Grapefruit League action this spring, at least follow these guidelines.

Do your homework

Like betting any preseason sport, you have to know what the gameplan is before even thinking of putting your hard-earned coin on the line. Read, read and read some more.

“One advantage that bettors have in these exhibition games is information,” Covers Expert Matt Fargo says. “Similar to NFL preseason games where coaches give out their player rotations and game plans, managers in baseball are very up front on how long starters will be pitching for and what sort of lineups they are going with.”

Listen to what the manager is hoping to accomplish this spring: Is he working in prospects or trying to sure up the rotation? And study up on key players and how they approach spring ball: Do they pace themselves in March or come out swinging? We hate to sound like a public service announcement, but “The more you know…”

Start cautiously

The first few games of spring training might as well be a high school science fair. Managers are experimenting with lineups and rotations, mixing this guy with that guy and swapping bodies like he’s rolling out hockey lines.

Players are also a tough read in the opening slate of exhibition games. Some guys are easing into the action, others are battling for positions, and others are just trying to stay healthy. Keep an ear to the base paths or sit back and watch how a manager is treating the first weeks of spring ball.

Find the right pitching matchups

As Spring Training marches on, starting pitchers take on more and more work. Guys will go at least five innings, giving you a pretty good idea of what to expect from the staff. The best situation is when you have an ace matched up against a No. 4 or No. 5 starter, or a young prospect trying to break into the bigs. Managers aren’t quick to change up pitchers in the spring, even if a guy is getting hammered.

Betting the “better” team

Roster depth and a surplus of talent can go a long way in Spring Training. Since veterans tend to limit themselves in the exhibition slate, knowing who’s behind them is imperative to betting spring baseball.

A talent-loaded lineup can make up for the absence of one or two big bats, while a shallow roster struggles without those elite hitters at the plate. It’s the reason a club like Detroit always seems to excel in spring ball, posting a collective 61-33 record the past four spring sessions.

Ride hot teams, fade cold ones

There is almost zero consistency in Spring Training, so when you start to see a pattern – winning or losing – jump on it. Managers couldn’t care less about the results, so don’t expect them to rush to right the ship if their club struggles in the spring. And if a team is winning, the skip must be doing something right and will only tweak minor details.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Dog has impressive streak between Arizona and Stanford
Justin Hartling

When Stanford travels to Arizona they will look to continue an impressive streak for the dogs Sunday. In the past 29 games between these two teams, the dog has covered the spread 22 times equalling a .759 winning percentage.

Stanford are an 11-point road dogs Sunday.

Wisconsin has not been a good play against Penn State

The Wisconsin Badgers have not covered a spread against Penn State in their last eight meetings. That 0-8 losing streak against the spread dates back to Feb 8, 2009.

The Badgers are 6-point road favorites Sunday.

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Fave trending as ATS winner in Warriors-Raptors meetings
Andrew Avery

When the Toronto Raptors host the Golden State Warriors Sunday, they'll look to break a trend that has seen the favorite cover the spread in the previous five meetings.

The Warriors have opened as the 2-point road favorite for this Sunday afternoon matchup. Add to that the fact that the Warriors are 5-1 ATS in their last six games overall and the Raptors face a tough challenge at home.

Suns scoring big against large O/U totals

The Phoenix Suns have been amazing against large O/U totals so far this season. Eight times this season the Suns have had an O/U of 213 or more and they have gone Over six of those times.

The Suns will welcome the Atlanta Hawks with an opening line of 214 Sunday.

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GOLD SHEET

★★★★★ COLLEGE KEY RELEASES ★★★★★
CLEMSON by 11 over Maryland (Sunday, March 2)

[Can'tPickAWinner]

POINTWISE

COLLEGE KEY RELEASES
UTEP over North Texas (Sun) RATING: 3
UCLA over Oregon State (Sun) RATING: 3

(12:00) INDIANA 67 - Ohio State 63 _____ _____

(12:00) ST JOHNS 80 - DePaul 52 (CBSC) _____ _____

(1:00) GEO WASHINGTON 78 - George Mason 61 (NBCS) _____ _____

(1:00) CLEMSON 69 - Maryland 65 _____ _____

(2:00) East Carolina 73 - MARSHALL 68 _____ _____

(2:00) Southern Mississippi 70 - FLORIDA ATLANTIC 62 _____ _____

(2:00) FLORIDA INTERNATIONAL 67 - Tulane 66 _____ _____

(2:00) VILLANOVA 85 - Marquette 69 (CBS) _____ _____

(3:00) Utep 72 - NORTH TEXAS 56 _____ _____

(4:00) Wisconsin 74 - PENN STATE 61 (BIG10) _____ _____

(4:00) Louisiana Tech 68 - UAB 67 _____ _____

(4:00) LA-LAFAYETTE 83 - South Alabama 65 _____ _____

(4:00) TULSA 86 - Texas-San Antonio 57 _____ _____

(4:00) CHARLOTTE 62 - Old Dominion 54 _____ _____

(6:00) FLORIDA STATE 78 - Georgia Tech 60 (ESPNU) _____ _____

(6:00) New Mexico 81 - NEVADA 75 _____ _____

(8:00) ARIZONA 77 - Stanford 67 (ESPNU) _____ _____

(9:00) UCLA 85 - Oregon State 55 (FOX 1) _____ _____

BEST BETS
UTEP (3)
WISCONSIN
TULSA
FLORIDA STATE
UCLA (3)

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POINTWISE

NBA BASKETBALL

(1:00) CHICAGO BULLS 109 - NY Knicks 100 (ABC) _____ _____

(4:05) TORONTO RAPTORS 103 - Golden State 97 _____ _____

(6:05) Philadelphia 76ers 110 - ORLANDO MAGIC 102 _____ _____

(6:05) INDIANA PACERS 104 - Utah Jazz 89 _____ _____

(7:05) Dallas Mavericks 99 - SAN ANTONIO SPURS 98 _____ _____

(7:05) OKLAHOMA CITY 105 - Charlotte Bobcats 103 _____ _____

(8:05) PHOENIX SUNS 108 - Atlanta Hawks 94 _____ _____

BEST BETS
PHILADELPHIA
DALLAS
PHOENIX (1)

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The Senators have been abysmal against the Canucks
Justin Hartling

The Ottawa Senators have been a terrible play for bettors against the Vancouver Canucks. The Sens have an atrocious 1-10 record in their last eleven against the Canucks, including dropping five straight in Vancouver.

The Sens open at +125 when they visit the Canucks (-135) Sunday.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Game of the Day: Senators at Canucks

Ottawa Senators at Vancouver Canucks (-135, 5.5)

The Ottawa Senators kick off a four-game road trip through Western Canada on Sunday when they head outdoors to face the Vancouver Canucks in the Heritage Classic. The Canucks traditionally play at Rogers Arena but will shift next door to compete under the retractable-roof stadium at BC Place, which is the home of the Canadian Football League's BC Lions. "I played outdoors in the (American Hockey League) and it was awesome," Senators center Zack Smith said. "It was different, a lot of fun and it's still competitive because there's two points on the line."

Vancouver can certainly use the two points as it fell for the eighth time in nine outings with a 2-1 shootout loss to Minnesota on Friday. The lack of offense has plagued the Canucks, who have mustered just six goals in the last six contests. Vancouver seems to find its stride against Ottawa, as it posted a 5-2 triumph on Nov. 28 for its sixth straight win versus the Senators and 10th in 11 meetings.

TV: 4 p.m. ET, NBC Sports, CBC, RDS

LINE HISTORY: The Canucks opened as -135 home faves. The total opened at 5.5 goals.

COVERS POWER RANKINGS: Senators(-129) / Canucks (-141)

INJURY WATCH: Senators - Craig Anderson (Ques. - Personal), Canucks - Yannick Weber (Ques. - Undisclosed), Mike Santorelli (IR - Shoulder)

WHAT BOOKS SAY: "These are two teams on the outside of the playoff picture and are looking in. Every game from here on out is a playoff game for them." Michael Stewart, CarbonSports.

WHAT SHARPS SAY: "Motivation will be on Ottawa's side following its 6-1 drubbing at the hands of the Red Wings on Thursday night. With that being said, Vancouver will also be looking to rebound following a tough 2-1 home loss to Minnesota on Friday. The Sens could catch a break here, as the Canucks simply can't find the back of the net right now, scoring two goals or less in six consecutive games. Vancouver in a mid-range favorite - certainly not offering much in the way of value, even as they host this edition of the Heritage Classic." Sean Murphy.

ABOUT THE SENATORS (26-23-11 SU, 27-33 ATS, 35-24 O/U): Although Ottawa is the road team, Kyle Turris was more than happy to return home. "To play in any outdoor game is something different and special, but to play in my hometown against the Canucks, it’s going to be really special," the New Westminster (B.C.) native told The Province. "I’m really looking forward to it. I could never imagine an outdoor game in Vancouver, but it’s going to be really cool. I haven’t even seen B.C. Place since it has been redone." Turris has scored a career-high 19 goals this season, but has just a tally and an assist in his last six contests.

ABOUT THE CANUCKS (28-24-10 SU, 24-38 ATS, 20-34 O/U): Captain Henrik and Daniel Sedin will see some familiar faces in attendance on Sunday as parents Tommy and Tora made the trek from Ornskoldsvik, Sweden. "They come over once or twice (per year)," Henrik Sedin said. "They timed it to come to the outdoor game." Perhaps their parents can also bring a bit of good fortune for the struggling duo as Henrik has failed to tally in his last 19 games and Daniel's drought stands at 21 contests - although the latter scored in the previous meeting.

CONSENSUS: 65 percent of wagers are on the Canucks at -135.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

NBA

Hot teams
-- Chicago won/covered eight of last nine games.
-- Warriors won five of their last six games. Toronto won six of eight.
-- Pacers won last four games, are 1-5-1 vs spread in last seven.
-- Charlotte won four of its last five games.
-- San Antonio won five of its last six games. Mavericks won four of their last five.

Cold Teams
-- Knicks lost five in row, eight of last nine games.
-- Jazz lost five of their last six road games.
-- 76ers lost their last 13 games (3-10 vs spread). Orlando lost six of its last eight games.
-- Oklahoma City lost three of its last four games.
-- Hawks lost 10 of last 11 games (1-7-1 vs spread last nine). Phoenix lost three of its last four games.

Series records
-- Bulls won eight of last ten games with New York,
-- Warriors won eight of last nine games with Toronto.
-- Pacers won three of last four games against Utah.
-- 76ers lost seven of last nine games with Orlando.
-- Thunder won its last six games with Charlotte.
-- Spurs won their last seven games against Dallas.
-- Suns won seven of last ten games with Atlanta.

Totals
-- Seven of last nine New York games went over total.
-- Five of last six Golden State games stayed under.
-- Last seven Utah road games stayed under the total.
-- Five of last six Philly-Orlando games stayed under.
-- Over is 5-2-1 in last eight Charlotte games.
-- Six of last eight San Antonio games went over total.
-- Last six Atlanta games went over the total.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

NHL

Hot teams
-- Washington won last four games, outscoring opponents 16-8. Flyers won five of their last six games.
-- Sharks/Devils both won three of their last four games.
-- Rangers won six of their last eight games.
-- Colorado won three of its last four home games.
-- Anaheim won its last two games, 1-0/5-2.


Cold teams
-- Panthers lost seven of their last eight games. Islanders lost eight of last ten.
-- Vancouver lost eight of last nine games. Senators lost five of their last seven road games.
-- Bruins lost three of their last four games.
-- Lightning lost four of their last six road games.
-- Phoenix lost four of last five games. Blues lost last three road games, scoring one goal.
-- Carolina lost its last four games, outscored 14-5.

Totals
-- Last four Philly-Washington games went over total.
-- Under is 15-8-5 in New Jersey's home games.
-- Last three Florida games went over the total.
-- Five of last seven Ottawa games went over total.
-- Under is 3-1-1 in last five Bruin-Ranger games.
-- Four of last five Colorado games went over total.
-- Seven of last eight Phoenix games stayed under.
-- Under is 6-1-2 in last nine Carolina games.

Series records
-- Flyers won six of last nine games with Washington.
-- Sharks won three of last four games with New Jersey.
-- Islanders won four of last five games with Florida.
-- Canucks won their last five games with Ottawa.
-- Rangers lost six of last seven games with Boston.
-- Avalanche won five of last seven games with Tampa Bay.
-- Blues won seven of last nine games with Phoenix.
-- Home side won four of last five Carolina-Anaheim games.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Hockey Crusher
New York Islanders -150 over Florida Panthers
(System Record: 69-2, won last 2 games)
Overall Record: 69-52-1

Basketball Crusher
George Mason +10 over George Washington
(System Record: 53-7, won last 2 games)
Overall Record: 53-67-4

Soccer Crusher
Quilmes + Tigre UNDER 2
This match is happening in Argentina
(System Record: 532-18, lost last game)
Overall Record: 532-456-78

Here are the rest of his hockey and basketball plays for today...


Hockey
Boston Bruins +100 over NY Rangers
St Louis Blues -126 over Phoenix
Washington Capitals -128 over Philadelphia


Basketball
Marshall -3 over East Carolina
Purdue +14.5 over Iowa
Oregon State +13 over UCLA

[Can'tPickAWinner]

2Halves2Win:

1* GAME: Mavericks +5.5 (-110: Risking 1.10 units to win 1.00 units) - TBD (TBDu)


1* GAME: Bobcats +9.5 (-110: Risking 1.10 units to win 1.00 units) - TBD (TBDu)


1* GAME: Hawks +8.5 (-110: Risking 1.10 units to win 1.00 units) - TBD (TBDu)

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Line Analyst


NHL--Plays for Sunday


Flyers--puck line--+1.5
Panthers--puck line--+1.5
Canucks--money line
Bruins--puck line--+1.5
Ducks--money line
Blues--money line