3-4-14

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Hockey Crusher
Ottawa Senators -110 over Edmonton Oilers
(System Record: 69-2, lost last 2 games)
Overall Record: 69-54-1

Basketball Crusher
Boston College +2 over Florida State
(System Record: 55-7, won last 4 games)
Overall Record: 55-67-4

Soccer Crusher
Gimnasia LP + Atletico Rafaela UNDER 2.5
This match is happening in Argentina
(System Record: 534-18, won last 2 games)
Overall Record: 534-456-78

Here are the rest of his hockey and basketball plays for today...


Hockey
Detroit Red Wings +114 over New Jersey Devils
Columbus Blue Jackets -135 over Dallas Stars
Vancouver Canucks +121 Phoenix Coyotes


Basketball
Georgia State -2 over Arkansas St
Detroit +2 over Wisconsin Milwaukee
Bowling Green +1 over Ohio

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Do good ATS teams make good NCAA bracket picks?
by Chase Ruttig

March Madness is one of the biggest events for sports bettors, whether it’s cashing in on a Cinderella team against the spread or correctly navigating your NCAA bracket pool. Those two things may go hand-in hand.

Can ATS success transition into a good tournament team? We asked some of Covers Experts’ sharpest NCAAB handicappers to see what a teams’ ATS record can tell us about their NCAA tournament potential.

ATS and the Final Four

It's safe to say that when it comes to filling out your Final Four you should feel comfortable picking schools with strong ATS records.

Ten of the last 12 programs to make the Final Four have had ATS records of .500 or better that season. Only Kentucky (16-22 ATS) in 2012 and VCU (18-21 ATS) in 2011 have had losing records against the spread and made a run to the Final Four.

With that in mind, top teams - and top breadwinners - like Wichita State (21-6-1 ATS), Villanova (19-8 ATS), Southern Methodist (17-8 ATS), and Virginia (16-9-1 ATS) could all be smart picks to go deep in the tournament this year.

ATS record on the road

While a terrific ATS record isn’t always a clear indicator of just how well a team will do come tourney time, breaking down that success against the spread may give hints of how tough a program is when faced with adversity. Looking at the ATS record on the road can give you an idea of a team's resolve.

"I am very interested in a team's ATS record away from home against quality foes - say, teams that made the Big Dance or even teams that made the Big Dance or NIT, CIT or CBI,” says Teddy Covers. "Teams with good ATS records in that particular subset are most assuredly teams I'd be looking to pick in my bracket as well."

This year's road ATS kings with chances of going deep in the tournament include Michigan State (8-2 ATS), Wichita State (11-1 ATS), and New Mexico (6-2 ATS).

Overrated/Underrated ATS teams

Sometimes a bad ATS record can be just as informative as a good one when penciling in your bracket picks. Chasing trends and hot streaks come March Madness can often lead basketball fans in the wrong direction.

Steve Merril treats the regular and postseason as two separate entities and believes that you can find some sleeper tournament teams amongst those that fell short of the oddsmakers’ expectations during conference play. These programs are usually good enough to make the cut Selection Sunday and view the tournament as a “new season”. In fact, Merril sees great opportunity to bet against teams on long ATS streaks during March Madness.

"If anything, I would look to play against teams with good ATS records as they have probably become a bit overrated, especially from a handicapping perspective," he says. "In fact, teams on a 3-0 SU and ATS run have been a long-term losing play in the NCAA tournament."

Whichever way you look at it, ATS records can be a significant part of the evaluation process when filling out your NCAA bracket. If you can find the right trends at the right time, you may just get an edge on your opponents in your bracket pool and avoid the upset at the sportsbook.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Three NCAAB teams looking to play late-season spoiler
by Chase Ruttig

With one week left in the NCAAB regular season, plenty of teams are still hoping to punch their tournament ticket. There are also many programs not going dancing this March - baring a improbable run in the conference tournament.

Those team outside the NCAA picture can either pack it in or fight to the finish, and the ones that do choose to keep battling love to take on the role of spoiler against conference foes on the tournament bubble.

Here are a few schools that can play spoiled sports this week:

Seton Hall Pirates (14-15, 14-14 ATS)

Opponent: Xavier (Monday)

Seton Hall has been inconsistent this season, even with the thinning of the Big East. But the Pirates do have a 68-60 road win over Xavier and will be looking to finish their season above .500 with two games left on the schedule.

With Xavier riding a huge weekend win over Creighton, that likely earned it a spot in the tournament, this could be a letdown spot for a Musketeers team that had problems stopping Seton Hall during their February loss.

Illinois Fighting Illini (17-12, 12-12-4 ATS)

Opponent: Michigan (Tuesday)

Riding a three-game win streak, including a big win over Michigan State Saturday, the Fighting Illini have improved their tournament resume drastically over the past week. Their big win on the weekend also helped their opponent Michigan move up to a two-game lead in the Big Ten, meaning the Wolverines can clinch the outright conference title with a win on Tuesday.

That will be easier said than done as the Illini look to make it four wins in a row on Senior Night over the Big Ten leaders and continue to build up their tournament chances.

Mississippi Rebels (17-12, 10-12-3 ATS)

Opponent: Arkansas (Wednesday)

After Marshall Henderson picked up a suspension and an arrest during the offseason, Ole Miss looked like it would have no chance at repeating its magical 2013 run. But Ole Miss is still fighting, despite just two wins in its last seven games, going 4-2-1 ATS in that span.

The Rebels are likely out of the NCAA picture unless they can make a serious run in the conference tournament. With a 12-point win over Arkansas under their belts and a chance to ruin the Razorbacks' Senior Night, expect Henderson & Co. to embrace the spoiler role down the stretch.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

StatFox Super Situations™ - FoxSheets

NBA LA CLIPPERS at PHOENIX
Play Against - Any team (LA CLIPPERS) revenging a home loss vs opponent of 10 points or more, after a cover as a double digit favorite
41-15 since 1997. ( 73.2% 24.5 units )
2-1 this year. ( 66.7% 0.9 units )

NBA LA CLIPPERS at PHOENIX
Play On - Any team vs the money line (PHOENIX) after going over the total by more than 24 points in their previous game, winning between 51% and 60% of their games on the season
117-73 over the last 5 seasons. ( 61.6% 48.1 units )
19-8 this year. ( 70.4% 12.0 units )

NBA LA CLIPPERS at PHOENIX
Play On - Road favorites vs. the 1rst half line (LA CLIPPERS) after 1 or more consecutive unders, excellent offensive team (>=102 PPG) against a horrible defensive team (>=102 PPG) after 42+ games
39-14 over the last 5 seasons. ( 73.6% 23.6 units )
4-4 this year. ( 50.0% -0.4 units )

[Can'tPickAWinner]

StatFox Super Situations™ - FoxSheets

CBB IL-CHICAGO at VALPARAISO
Play On - Underdogs of 10 or more points (IL-CHICAGO) revenging a home loss vs opponent against opponent off a home loss
89-45 over the last 5 seasons. ( 66.4% 39.5 units )
5-3 this year. ( 62.5% 1.7 units )

CBB OHIO U at BOWLING GREEN
Play On - A road team vs. the money line (OHIO U) after 3 or more consecutive unders, average offensive team (67-74 PPG) against a poor offensive team (63-67 PPG) after 15+ games
41-26 over the last 5 seasons. ( 61.2% 27.9 units )
4-10 this year. ( 28.6% -4.7 units )

CBB N ILLINOIS at W MICHIGAN
Play On - Road underdogs of 2 to 3.5 points vs. the first half line (N ILLINOIS) revenging a close loss vs opponent of 3 points or less, with a losing record
89-45 over the last 5 seasons. ( 66.4% 39.5 units )
9-5 this year. ( 64.3% 3.5 units )

[Can'tPickAWinner]

No. 12 Michigan looks for key road win Tuesday at Illinois
by Mark Kern

State Farm Center - Champaign, IL
Tip-off: Tuesday, 7:00 p.m. ET
Line: Michigan -3

No. 12 Michigan could clinch at least a share of the Big Ten title on Tuesday night with a win over an Illinois team that has been clicking on all cylinders as of late.

The Wolverines appeared to be in trouble when sophomore power forward Mitch McGary went out with a back injury in mid-December. However, they responded nicely with a 15-3 SU record (11-6-1 ATS) without their big man, including 13-3 SU (10-6 ATS) in Big Ten play, and are just two wins from an outright conference championship following a three-game win streak. Michigan (14-11-1 ATS overall) has played well on the road (6-4 SU, 4-6 ATS), but has struggled to play as good of defense, allowing 71.5 PPG away from home, compared to 59.9 PPG in Ann Arbor. The offense has had its struggles on the road as well, averaging just 60.3 PPG in the team’s three road losses in the Big Ten, nearly 15 points fewer than the 74.9 PPG they average on the season. The Wolverines will have to play their best basketball on Tuesday night, as the Fighting Illini come into the game riding a lot of confidence with three straight wins (SU and ATS). This includes winning outright 53-46 as 12.5-point underdogs at Michigan State on Saturday, when Illinois held its opponent to 39% FG, while creating all kinds of havoc with 14 steals. The Illini are now 12-15-1 ATS overall and 6-10 SU (6-9-1 ATS) in Big Ten play, and have also been a losing wager at home this season at 5-8-1 ATS (10-5 SU). They have just two wins versus ranked teams this season (MSU and Missouri) and have also done a lot of losing in this series recently with five straight SU defeats by a 10.4 PPG margin to Michigan. But although Illinois is 0-7 ATS in the past three seasons at home after scoring 55 points or less, Michigan is 1-8 ATS on the road in this same timeframe when playing its third game in a week.

On the season, the Wolverines score 74.9 PPG (78th in nation) on an excellent 47.7% FG (28th in Div. I) and 38.9% threes (also 28th in nation). They also rank 52nd in the nation in scoring defense (65.1 PPG), limiting opponents to 43.9% FG and 33.2% threes. Michigan is not a very aggressive defensive team though, averaging a paltry 5.1 SPG (285th in Div. I) and 2.5 BPG (293rd in nation). Last season, SG Nik Stauskas (17.1 PPG, 3.5 APG, 3.4 RPG) was known as a great shooter that benefitted from playing with a great point guard in Trey Burke. With Burke no longer running the show for the Wolverines, it has forced Stauskas to have to grow as an offensive player. While he is still one of the best shooters in all of the country (44% threes), his ability to get to the basket has made him one of the most versatile offensive players in all of the country. Stauskas poured in 14 points on 6-of-10 shooting in last season's 74-60 win in Champaign, but was 0-for-5 in the rematch in Ann Arbor one month later. Stauskas teams up with SG Caris LeVert (13.4 PPG, 40% threes, 4.5 RPG) to produce one of the most electric scoring backcourts in the Big Ten. LeVert has 18.8 PPG (11-of-21 threes) over his past four games. Both do a great job of letting the offense come to them, and their play has been a big reason why freshman PG Derrick Walton Jr. (8.3 PPG, 39% threes, 2.8 APG) has had a solid rookie campaign. However, Walton has been slumping over the past four games with just 5.3 PPG on 6-of-22 FG (27%), five assists and four turnovers. While the two wing players combined with PF Glenn Robinson III (13.0 PPG, 50% FG, 4.4 RPG) are the leaders of the team, the argument can be made that the Wolverines will go only as far as Walton Jr. takes them. In the Wolverines six losses this season, the freshman has averaged only 4.3 PPG. The Achilles heel for this team is its inability to rebound the ball, ranking 289th in the nation in rebounding (32.7 RPG). Luckily for the Wolverines, the Fighting Illini have also done a poor job cleaning the glass.

Heading into Tuesday night’s matchup, Illinois ranks 196th in the nation in rebounding (34.4 RPG), which pales in comparison to its offensive numbers. It has been a brutal year offensively for the Fighting Illini, who rank 305th in Div. I scoring (65.1 PPG), 323rd in shooting (40.7% FG) and 334th in assists (10.2 APG). As a team, Illinois shoots only 32.3% from the three-point line, so it can't afford to get down by double-digit points with little chance of coming back. But like Michigan, the Illini defense has been strong, ranking 21st in the country by allowing just 62.0 PPG, and holding opponents to 41.4% FG and 32.8% threes. While the team plays great defense, it does not force a lot of turnovers (12.0 TOPG) due to a pedestrian 6.2 SPG (166th in nation). Getting easy baskets off turnovers could really help overcome the offensive struggles. Junior SG Rayvonte Rice (15.8 PPG, 6.0 RPG) has been a bright spot for Illinois this season, but has scored just 8.7 PPG on 28% FG during the three-game win streak, showing that other players have stepped up their offensive performances. SG Tracy Abrams (10.9 PPG, 3.3 RPG, 3.2 APG) had a huge effort in Saturday's upset win at Michigan State with a team-high 12 points, four assists and five steals. Abrams has the talent to be a big scorer, but has had too many games where he has his struggles. He scored 10 points in both losses to Michigan last season. The Illini's best frontcourt scorer is senior SF Jon Ekey (7.3 PPG, 5.2 RPG) who has made 8-of-15 FG with eight steals during his club's winning streak. For Illinois to win this game, it is going to have to play the defense that it played in East Lansing.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Cappers Access

Illinois +3
Florida -12
Florida St -3

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Gamblers Data

Free Plays Tuesday

Clippers -3

Lakers -1.5

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Mighty Quinn

Mighty hit with Oklahoma State (-8 1/2) on Monday and likes Florida on Tuesday.

The deficit is 135 sirignanos.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Jordan Sharp

Spurs -6.5

Lakers Over 210.5

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Sports Wagers NHL

Tampa Bay @ ST. LOUIS
ST. LOUIS -½ -110 over over Tampa Bay
Regulation only. Expect a jacked up crowd tonight at the Scottrade Center as they welcome the Blues home for their first game back after the break with Ryan Miller between the pipes. These two don’t play each other often but Tampa defeated the Blues back in Tampa in November but this time around things are very different. The Blues have won 23 of their past 29 games against the Atlantic Division and with Miller in net, the Blue Notes are better than ever.
Meanwhile, the Lightning are reeling. They blew a 2-0 lead to the Preds in their first game back after the break and looked completely listless in their effort. Tampa followed that up with a worse effort in Dallas but Ben Bishop stood on his head and the Bolts managed a 4-2 victory despite being outshot 41-21. In their last game, Tampa lost in Colorado, 6-3. Tampa returns home after this one to face Buffalo on Thursday night in the much anticipated return of Steven Stamkos. The Lightning have dropped six of their past nine games and should be 0-3 since the break instead of 1-2. Furthermore, against clubs over .500, the Bolts are 3-12 over their past 15 games. Playing poorly and wrapping up a four-game road trip since the break while looking forward to getting their leader back, Tampa is in big trouble here.
Our Pick: ST. LOUIS -½ -110 over (Risking 2.2 units - To Win: 2.00)


Detroit @ NEW JERSEY
Detroit +121 over NEW JERSEY
OT included. The Devils are trying to make the playoffs, are they not? Starting Martin Brodeur tonight is a very curious move when you consider that this game is one of the biggest of the year for both clubs. To give you an idea of how big this game is, Detroit is just three points ahead of the Devils for the last playoff spot. One would have to assume that the Devils are showcasing Brodeur in an attempt to move him before the deadline tomorrow and they’re praying he comes up with a big game. With Pavel Datsyuk and Henrik Zetterberg out, the Devils are throwing an insult in the Red Wings direction by starting Brodeur over the vastly superior Cory Schneider. You can bet the house that this “insult” will not go unnoticed by Mike Babcock and he’ll use it as extra motivation to get his guys pumped up. The Devils are strong defensively and Brodeur may only face 20-25 shots but he’s so bad that four or five of those could find the back of the net. Brodeur’s .900 save percentage is among the worst marks in the league and it’s even worse when you consider that 25-35% of those shots are not quality one’s. In four of his past six starts, Brodeur posted save percentages of .714, .889, .893 and .792.
Even without Datsyuk and Zetterberg, the Red Wings are still loaded with offensive talent. And it’s not like playing without that pair is something new, as both Zetterberg and Datsyuk have missed significant time this season. The Red Wings are 2-0 since the break and have outscored the opposition 8-2. Overall, Detroit has won four of five and has picked up points in six of their past seven games. The Red Wings have also allowed one goal or less in each of their last four victories. These two played one game against one another this year back in December and Detroit won 3-1 without Zetterberg and Datsyuk and held the Devils to 11 shots on net. In that game they faced Schneider and were not playing as good as they are right now. As the chalk, the Devils are fade material with Brodeur in net because their chances of losing are greater than their chances of winning.
Our Pick: Detroit +121 (Risking 2 units - To Win: 2.42)


Vancouver @ PHOENIX
PHOENIX -½ +126 over Vancouver
Regulation only. The Canucks have lost two straight and nine of their past 10. They are actually fortunate not to be on a 10-game losing streak after they defeated the Blue Notes 1-0 to open up play after the break. The Canucks were spiraling downward anyway for the past couple of years and bringing in John Tortorella has made things worse. Tortorella’s strategies have turned a decent group of players into shot blockers and penalty killers. The Canucks are not just losing but they’re not having fun out there at all. Take the fun out of the game you love and it becomes so much more difficult to play. Over their last 10 games, Vancouver has scored two goals or less in nine of them and the only time they surpassed two was against Winnipeg when they scored three and lost. During their losing streak, the Canucks have lost to Edmonton, Toronto, Winnipeg, Montreal and Ottawa among others.
Phoenix is also in a funk but at least they are playing hard and they are not playing poorly. The Coyotes are 0-3 since the break but they lost to Winnipeg, Colorado and St. Louis. Against Winnipeg, they outshot the Jets, 36-29 and in Colorado they outshot the Avs, 42-33. Against St. Louis in their last game, the Coyotes took a 2-0 lead into the third period. Prior to the break, Phoenix faced Dallas, Chicago, Dallas again, Pittsburgh and Los Angeles. This is a team that is on a four game losing streak after playing a difficult stretch but it’s extremely rare for the ‘Yotes to lose a string of consecutive games of four or more. It just doesn’t happen to this hard working group and they could not have asked for a team that is riper to get picked than the Canucks are right now. Incidentally, the home team is 5-0 over the past five games in this series and that’s not likely to change here.
Our Pick: PHOENIX -½ +126 (Risking 2 units - To Win: 2.52)

Yesterday	1	1	0.00	+0.06
Last 30 Days	16	20	0.00	-0.88
Season to Date	122	153	0.00	-3.07

[Can'tPickAWinner]

EZWINNERS

2* Arkansas State +1 - 1st Half

[Can'tPickAWinner]

J.R. Stevens/Smooth44

MLBx
(907) Pittsburgh +110
(914) Cleveland -120
(915) Texas +110
(918) Kansas City -120

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Shaker's Shorts

CBB
#522 Michigan/Illinois - UNDER 58.5 - 1st Half

[Can'tPickAWinner]

PAUL LEINER

100* Over 210 - Heat/Rockets
100* Miami +4
50* Arizona State +6.5