3-6-14

[Can'tPickAWinner]

StatFox Super Situations™ - FoxSheets

CBB LSU at VANDERBILT
Play Against - An underdog (VANDERBILT) revenging a road blowout loss vs opponent of 20 points or more against opponent off a road loss against a conference rival
95-49 over the last 5 seasons. ( 66.0% 41.1 units )
11-4 this year. ( 73.3% 6.6 units )

CBB SOUTHERN MISS at TULANE
Play Against - Any team (TULANE) after 2 straight games making 37% of their shots or worse against opponent after a game where a team made 20% of their 3 point shots or worse
179-106 since 1997. ( 62.8% 63.8 units )
8-8 this year. ( 50.0% -2.5 units )

CBB USC at WASHINGTON ST
Play On - Home favorites of 2 to 5.5 points vs. the first half line (WASHINGTON ST) poor offensive team - scoring <=64 points/game on the season, after a combined score of 125 points or less 3 straight games
81-40 over the last 5 seasons. ( 66.9% 37.0 units )
2-1 this year. ( 66.7% 0.9 units )

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Thursday's Action
by Brian Edwards

NCAAB
Memphis at Cincinnati
Cincinnati (24-5 straight up, 12-11 against the spread) has dropped back-to-back games, including Saturday's 51-45 setback at Connecticut as a four-point road underdog. Sean Kilpatrick's clean look at a 3-pointer to cover at the buzzer was off the mark. Mick Cronin's team was an abysmal 13-for-48 from the field (27.1%) for a season-low percentage. The Bearcats made only 13-of-21 (61.9%) from the charity stripe and missed six straight at one point in the second half. Despite the atrocious offensive outing, including 20 turnovers committed, Cincy was in the game the whole way thanks to great defense and dominating the boards (44-30 advantage). Kilpatrick was the only Bearcat in double figures with 16 points, but he was guilty of a career-high seven turnovers and made only 4-of-16 shots from the floor.

Memphis (22-7 SU, 15-11 ATS) is coming off one of its best wins of the season, rallying from an eight-point deficit in the last five minutes to beat Louisville 72-66 as a five-point home underdog. Michael Dixon Jr. erupted late in the second half, scoring six straight points once the Tigers went down by eight. The Missouri transfer would finish with a team-best 18 points. Geron Johnson added 15 points for the winners.

As of late Wednesday night, most books had Cincinnati installed as a four-point home favorite. -- Cincy has won 17 of its 18 home games, compiling an 8-4 spread record. The Bearcats' lone defeat came two Saturdays ago when Louisville's Russ Smith scored a late bucket to give the Cardinals a 58-57 triumph.

As I've said many times throughout the season, Cincy can beat anybody on any given night because it defends and rebounds as well as any team in America. The knock on the Bearcats is the lack of an elite scorer outside of Kilpatrick, who averages 20.3 points and 2.3 helpers per conteState They have one of the nation's best rim protectors in undersized but super-athletic center Justin Jackson, who averages team-bests in rebounds (6.8 RPG), steals (1.7 SPG), blocked shots (2.9 BPG) and field-goal percentage (55.9%). Jackson scores at a 11.0 points-per-game clip.

Memphis is led by Joe Jackson, who averages team-highs in scoring (14.0 points per game), assists (4.6 APG) and steals (1.7 SPG). -- When these teams met in Memphis on January 4, Cincy thumped the Tigers 69-53 as a five-point underdog. The 122 combined points fell 'under' the 136-point total. Kilpatrick scored a game-high 18 points, while Justin Jackson finished with 13 points, eight boards and seven blocked shots. Joe Jackson had 13 points and five assists, but he also had five turnovers.

The 'under' is 18-5 overall for the Bearcats, 10-2 in their home games.

The 'under' is 16-9 overall for Memphis, cashing in three of its last four games.

ESPN will have the telecast at 7:00 p.m. Eastern.

Iowa at Michigan State
Michigan State (22-7 SU, 15-11-2 ATS) has lost three of its last four games both SU and ATS, including a stunning loss at home Saturday against Illinois. The Illini went into Breslin Center and won a 53-46 decision as a 12.5-point road underdog. Bettors know that this has had Tom Izzo in a foul mood all week, especially when you consider that the Spartans were back at full strength health-wise for the first time since early January.

In his return from an extended absence due to a broken bone in his hand, Branden Dawson had six points, seven rebounds, two steals and one blocked shot in 25 minutes of playing time. Keith Appling, who suffered a wrist injury in early February that caused him to miss the first three games of his collegiate career, continued to struggle in his fourth game since returning. Appling had only five points and as many turnovers (four) as assists (four). He was averaging better than 15 points per game before the injury, but he's scored just 14 total in the last four contests. Izzo has hinted at giving him fewer minutes this week.

During Izzo's illustrious tenure, Michigan State hasn't lost at home much. However, this season has been a different story. The Spartans have lost four times in East Lansing and they're just 6-8 ATS at home.

As of late Wednesday night, most spots had Michigan State listed as a 3.5-point home favorite.

Iowa (20-9 SU, 15-12 ATS) is on the cusp of its first invite to the NCAA Tournament since 2006 when it won the Big Ten in Steve Alford's final season, only to fall to Northwestern State in a 4/13 first-round upset. A win at Breslin Center would make an at-large invite for the Hawkeyes a given.

Fran McCaffrey's squad has failed to cover the number in four straight games. Iowa snapped a three-game losing streak by knocking off Purdue 83-76 on Sunday as a 15-point home favorite. Roy Devyn-Marble was the catalyst for the Hawks with 21 points, five assists, four steals and zero turnovers.

Iowa has been a road underdog four times, producing a 3-1 spread record. But the Hawks have only won outright in one such situation (at Ohio State).

When these long-time Big Ten rivals met in Iowa City on January 28, Michigan State captured a 71-69 win in overtime as a 5.5-point underdog. The win was the Spartans' seventh straight over the Hawkeyes. They have covered the spread at a 5-2 ATS clip during the seven-game winning streak over Iowa.

In the aforementioned encounter, Michigan State played without its two best 'bigs' in Dawson and Adreian Payne, both of whom were injured at the time. Nevertheless, Izzo's bunch ended Iowa's 20-game home winning streak despite going to the free-throw line just 20 times compared to 43 trips to the charity stripe for the Hawkeyes. Appling scored a team-best 16 points for Sparty in the victory. Marble had a game-high 21 points in defeat.

Totals have been an overall wash for Michigan State overall (14-14) and at home (7-7).

The 'over' has hit in eight consecutive Iowa games to improve to 19-7 overall.

Tip-off is scheduled for 9:00 p.m. Eastern on ESPN.

B.E.'s Bonus Nuggets
Nebraska took another step toward earning its first NCAA Tournament berth since 1998 by going into Assembly Hall on Wednesday night and emerging with a 70-60 win over Indiana. The Cornhuskers knocked off the Hoosiers as 6.5-point road underdogs. Tim Miles's team has now won 10 of its last 13 games and more importantly for our purposes, it is 12-3 ATS in the last 15 outings. Walter Pitchford led the way with 17 points and nine rebounds. The transfer from Florida knocked down 3-of-4 attempts from beyond the arc.

In addition to Nebraska, three SEC bubble teams were victorious Wednesday. Tennessee visited The Plains and gave the hosts rude treatment in the form of an 84-52 beatdown as a five-point road 'chalk.' If there was any doubt about Auburn head coach's Tony Barbee's eminent dismissal, it was all removed by the Volunteers. Arkansas was equally impressive in a 110-80 win over Ole Miss as a nine-point home favorite. The Razorbacks have won six in a row and eight of their last nine. Missouri wasn't impressive at all, but it somehow found a way to beat Texas A&M, 57-56. The Aggies led for the first 39 minutes and 52 seconds (and seven-tenths of a tick), but they missed a free throw and fouled Mizzou 90 feet from the basket with 7.3 seconds remaining. Earnest Ross made both gift free throws to give the Tigers their first lead on his Senior Night. Mizzou and Tennessee face each other this weekend.

Any outside hope of garnering a No. 1 seed went out the window for Duke when it allowed Wake Forest to go on a 17-0 run late in the second half of their meeting Wednesday night in Winston-Salem. The Blue Devils fell victim to the look-ahead spot (they host arch-rival UNC this weekend) and lost 82-72 to the Demon Deacons, who were 12.5-point home underdogs.

SMU lost for the first time at home this year Wednesday when Louisville collected an 84-71 win as a 3.5-point road 'chalk.' The Mustangs raced out to a 14-point lead in the first half, but the game totally turned when point guard Nic Moore picked up a second foul and was forced to the bench for the rest of the first half. Russ Smith hit six treys in the second half and finished with a game-high 26 points.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

CHASE DIAMOND

10* CBB DIAMOND PLAY
Iowa vs. Michigan State
Iowa+4

This game features two teams that really need a win here Iowa is 20-9 and Michigan State is 22-7. Iowa really needs this win badly and Michigan State has lost 2 straight both to teams they should have beaten. Last time they played MSU nipped them at Iowa 71-69 so Iowa will be out for revenge tonight to return the favor on the Spartans home floor. Very heavy public action on MSU here as the public has gone all in on MSU at a rate of 83%. Take Iowa here plus the points for a nice 10* winner.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Game of the Day: Heat at Spurs

Miami Heat at San Antonio Spurs (-2.5, 208)

A rematch of last season's NBA Finals — and perhaps a preview of this year's — is on tap Thursday when the San Antonio Spurs host the Miami Heat. It's the second meeting of the season, and the Heat picked up where they left off last June in the first, winning 113-101 at home. San Antonio was short-handed, playing without three starters, but should be at full strength this time.

The Heat, who are 1 1/2 games behind Indiana for the top spot in the East, had an eight-game winning streak snapped in a 106-103 loss at Houston on Tuesday. Star LeBron James ran out of gas in the second half a night after putting up a career-high 61 points against Charlotte. The Spurs trail Oklahoma City by 1 1/2 games for the best record in the West, having won four straight and seven of eight after a 122-101 win at Cleveland on Tuesday.

TV: 8 p.m. ET, TNT, Sun Sports (Miami)

LINE HISTORY: San Antonio opened as a 2.5-point home favorite while the total opened at 207 and jumped to 208 points.

POWER RANKINGS: Miami (-14.5) - San Antonio (-12.5) + Home Court (-3.0) = San Antonio -1.0

INJURY WATCH: Heat - Greg Oden (Prob. knees)

WHAT SHARPS SAY: "After their lowest scoring quarter of the season (13 points) in the first vs. Cleveland, the Spurs would go on to score 109 points over the final three. They assisted on 39 of 43 field goals for the game." - Bryan Power.

WHAT BOOKS SAY: "The second and final meeting between the last year's NBA Finals participants. The Heat took Game 1 with ease on their home court. Can the Spurs defend their home court? Always a entertaining matchup between these two powerhouse teams." - Michael Stewart, CarbonSports.

ABOUT THE HEAT (43-15 SU, 27-29-2 ATS, 34-24 O/U): Miami had a scare when James broke his nose Feb. 20 at Oklahoma City, but he missed only one game and has been as good as ever in four games since. James has scored 20 or more points in eight straight games and is averaging 33.5 points in four games wearing a protective mask. James had a modest 18 points in the first meeting this season, but Chris Bosh poured in 24 to lead six Miami players in double figures.

ABOUT THE SPURS (44-16 SU, 29-31 ATS, 36-23-1 O/U): San Antonio has long been known for its unselfish play, but the Spurs were in rare form against the Cavaliers, racking up a season-high 39 assists on 43 field goals. It helps that the Spurs are finally healthy after battling numerous injuries for much of the season — they were without starters Tiago Splitter, Danny Green and Kawhi Leonard the first time they played Miami. The big man Splitter has been something of a bellwether this season — the Spurs are 16-0 when he scores in double figures.

TRENDS:
* Over is 5-1 in the last six meetings.
* Over is 4-1 in the last five meetings in San Antonio.
* Favorite is 5-2 ATS in the last seven meetings.
* Home team is 5-2 ATS in the last seven meetings.

CONSENSUS: 55 percent of bets are on Miami and 60 percent are on Over 208.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Maddux

Texas St
E Kentucky

[Can'tPickAWinner]

River city sharps
3 units
latech -14.5 @ rice

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Marc Lawrence
3* Xavier+3
3* Richmond +5.5
3* Lakers +10.5

[Can'tPickAWinner]

The Computer Group Daily

Mercer -7 (23% ROI)
Thunder/Suns UNDER 215 (22% ROI)
Lakers +10.5 (55% ROI)
Clippers/Lakers UNDER 224.5 (48% ROI)

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Paul Leiner

100* Over 225 Lakers/Clippers
100* Michigan State -4.5
50* Tulsa -6

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Hockey Crusher
Detroit Red Wings -108 over Colorado
(System Record: 70-2, won last game)
Overall Record: 70-55-1

Rest of the Plays
Winnipeg Jets +108 over Los Angeles Kings
San Jose Sharks -130 over Pittsburgh Penguins
St Louis Blues -145 over Nashville

Basketball Crusher
Fairfield +1.5 over St. Peters
(System Record: 55-7, lost last game)
Overall Record: 55-68-4

Rest of the Plays
Memphis +4.5 over Cincy
Troy -1 over Texas-Arlington
Xavier +3 over Villanova

Soccer Crusher
Arsenal de Sarandi + Quilmes OVER 2
This match is happening in Argentina
(System Record: 535-18, won last 3 games and a push)
Overall Record: 535-456-79

[Can'tPickAWinner]

EZWINNERS

2 STAR SELECTION
(514) Xavier Musketeers +1.5 (1st Half)
(Risking $220 to win $200)

[Can'tPickAWinner]

RAS

CBB full game: 520 Old Dominion -3.5

[Can'tPickAWinner]

GoodFella

Thursday Night CBB Play
XAVIER +3

[Can'tPickAWinner]

J.R. Stevens/Smooth44

MLBx
(916) Cleveland -120
(921) Oakland +100
(924) Atlanta -120

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Toronto Syndicate

MLBx
Toronto Blue jays +105

CBB
ucsb/mercer ML parlay -110