3-11-14

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Bank Shots: NBA's weekly betting news and notes

Each week, we look back on the NBA betting scene and give you the best - and worst - basketball bets, as well as some spots to keep an eye on with the upcoming schedule.

For the week of March 3-9

Hottest ATS - Houston Rockets (4-0 SU, 3-1 ATS)

Houston was perfect straight up last week, earning impressive home victories over Miami, Indiana and Portland while squeezing in a comfortable win in Orlando. They were within a basket of covering against the Trail Blazers, prevailing 118-113 in overtime after entering as a 6.5-point fave. The Rockets are quickly becoming the team nobody wants to face in the playoffs, with James Harden playing some of the best basketball of his career.

Coldest ATS - Indiana Pacers (0-4 SU, 0-4 ATS)

It's panic time in the Hoosier State after the Pacers put up what was easily the worst one-week performance of an otherwise sensational season. Indiana lost all four games - three by double digits - and hit the low point of its year with losses to Charlotte and Houston by a combined 48 points. The Pacers have struggled to score all season - and while that wasn't a concern when they had the league's stoutest defense, that unit has been torched for triple-digit points in three straight games, while giving up 30 3-pointers over that stretch.

Best Over play - Milwaukee Bucks (1-3 SU, 4-0 O/U)

While the Lakers win the award for the "overest" overs of the week, the Bucks have been the more consistent team when it comes to game-by-game over totals. With Milwaukee already looking ahead to next year, its games have been high-paced back-and-forth affairs - and while the Bucks will probably lose far more than they'll win the rest of the way, they look like a strong over play. In their last three games - losses to Sacramento, New Orleans and Washington - all ended better than 12 points higher than the total.

Best Under play - Portland Trail Blazers (1-3 SU, 1-3 O/U)

Talk about a role reversal: Once the darlings of the over sphere, Portland was one of the league's top "under" plays last week. The Blazers began with a one-point loss to the Lakers - despite going in as a 12-point fave - and followed that up with a blowout win over the Atlanta Hawks and narrow losses to the Dallas Mavericks and Houston Rockets. Only the Houston game went over the total - and that was only because it went to overtime; had it ended in regulation, Portland would have had its first perfect under week of the season.

Surveying the schedule

The Phoenix Suns continue their improbable run to a postseason berth this week - and will be getting back a key player, as well. Guard Eric Bledsoe is expected to return from a knee injury in time for Wednesday's game against the Cleveland Cavaliers, though he has left open the possibility of coming back Monday night in Los Angeles. The Suns will play three of their four games away from Phoenix, visiting the Clippers before hosting the Cavaliers and returning to the road for games in Boston and Toronto.

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Three teams that can shake up NBA odds with statement weeks
By BRIAN COVERT

The trick to betting NBA futures is to grab a team before they make a few statement wins and trim the price on their odds to win the championship.

If you’re hunting for value, here are three NBA contenders facing big challenges this week. If these clubs can string some wins together and make statement, you’ll quickly see their futures value dry up:

Houston Rockets (+1,200)

Watching the Houston Rockets these days, you have every right to think you’re watching the Western Conference’s best team.

After all, they’re eerily similar to the Orlando Magic circa 2009 that had Dwight Howard anchoring the middle for a bunch of 3-point bombers that together managed to win the Eastern Conference title.

Now with Dwight fully integrated and the likes of James Harden and Chandler Parsons running around the perimeter, Houston has won eight of 10 (6-4 ATS) including wins over Miami, Indiana, and Portland.

The Rockets now stand 2.5 games behind San Antonio for top spot out West and with road games against Oklahoma City, Chicago, and Miami this week the Rockets can make a serious pitch to say they are the West’s, if not the league’s - best team.

Toronto Raptors (+6,000)

The Toronto Raptors just continue to surprise everyone. Canada’s team has gone from a long-running joke to the third-best squad in the Eastern Conference. Their most recent run has the team going 8-2 SU (7-3 ATS) in their past 10, as they now sit a full game above Chicago with two games in hand.

One of those games is at Brooklyn, who the Raptors would face if the playoffs were to begin today. They then host Detroit before welcoming the contrasting styles of the Memphis Grizzlies and Phoenix Suns Friday and Sunday.

Memphis’ “punch you in the mouth” brand of basketball has given Toronto problems in the past while the high-octane Suns could have them going basket-for-basket instead of sticking with the defense-first approach that has been successful.

But if Toronto can negotiate this week you will see its confidence continue to grow and provide a springboard for the team to possibly get out of the first round of the playoffs for the first time in over 10 years.

Golden State Warriors (+1,600)

The Golden State Warriors, currently sixth in the conference, are in a weird spot. People don’t really take them seriously as Western Conference contenders yet they’re definitely a cut above those teams fighting for the final playoff spots out West.

The Warriors have a great chance to separate themselves from the latter this week. They welcome Dallas (seventh spot out West) Monday night before going to the Clippers and Trail Blazers later in the week (they host Cleveland in between these games as well).

All told, the Warriors are an NBA second-best 20-14 away from home this year and beat the Clippers and Blazers by 19 and 15 points respectively in their last head-to-head meetings.

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AAC tournament betting cheat sheet: Cardinals kings of the new conference?
By JASON LOGAN

The inaugural American Athletic Conference tournament tips off Wednesday, and if the departed Big East members have anything to say about it, the first AAC tournament could be a wild ride ripe with betting value.

Here’s a quick breakdown of the teams to watch in the AAC tournament at FedExForum in Memphis this week:

Favorites

Louisville Cardinals - The defending national champs closed out the year with a statement win at SMU and a blowout over UConn at home. Louisville ranks in the Top 20 in both offense (81.8 ppg) and defense (61.8) and has plenty of postseason experience on its roster.

Cincinnati Bearcats - Cincinnati is one of the stingiest teams in the country, allowing only 58.4 points per game. The Bearcats clamped down on AAC competition but sometimes found themselves short on firepower when they need a bucket. Cincinnati gets 30 percent of its offense from Sean Kilpatrick, which is dangerous should the Bearcats talent guard wear down in the tournament.

Live Underdog

Memphis Tigers – Memphis struggled with consistency all season but showed just how good it can be with a strong push at the end of conference play. The Tigers’ talented roster took wins over Louisville and SMU down the stretch and proved it could run with the country’s elite in non-conference games against Oklahoma State, Florida and Gonzaga. The big chink in Memphis’ armor is a less-than-impressive road record.

Best ATS team

SMU Mustangs – The Mustangs (17-10 ATS), transplanted in the AAC from the C-USA, stunned basketball bettors in conference play. Southern Methodist reeled off seven straight covers and went on an 11-1 ATS streak during AAC play before the market caught up to the Pony Express. The Mustangs fell flat on their faces to end conference play with back-to-back loss to Louisville and Memphis that damaged their tournament seeding.

Best Over/Under

Cincinnati Bearcats - Cincinnati’s lock-down defense and lackluster scoring punch is the perfect recipe for Under bettors (7-18 O/U). The Bearcats held 11 of their 17 conference opponents to under 60 points while totaling less than 70 points for in 12 of their AAC clashes. However, the market is adjusting to Cincy’s Under run with the final two games of the schedule playing Over.

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Pucking the Trends: NHL's weekly betting news and notes

Every week, we update you on who's hot, who's not and situational betting spots in the National Hockey League.

For the week of March 3-9

Hot team

Boston Bruins (4-0 SU)

There's a new top team in the Eastern Conference - at least for now - and it's a familiar one if you've been following the standings for the past few years. The Bruins assumed their place atop the conference with a four-win week, moving one point ahead of the Pittsburgh Penguins in what should be a spirited battle for the remainder of the season. Boston opened the week with impressive home wins over Washington and Florida - outscoring them by a combined 7-1 tally - before hitting the road for victories over the Lightning and Panthers.

Cold team

Nashville Predators (0-3 SU)

Speaking of changes to the ledger, the Predators have become the lowest-scoring team in the Western Conference after a dreadful stretch that has seen them score just three goals over their last four games. That includes a three-loss week in which they squandered the finale of a six-game homestand with defeats to the Pittsburgh Penguins, St. Louis Blues and Columbus Blue Jackets. The Predators enter Monday with just 152 goals on the season - one fewer than the Vancouver Canucks - and will now hit the road for games against Ottawa, Buffalo and Chicago.

Best Over play

New Jersey Devils (3-0 O/U)

Goals have come fast and furious for both the Devils and their opponents of late, as they're riding a six-game over streak that includes three high-scoring affairs last week. New Jersey opened the stretch by splitting a home-and-home series with the Detroit Red Wings, earning a 4-3 home victory before getting thumped 7-4 at Joe Louis Arena. The Devils closed out the week with a thrilling 5-4 home victory over the Carolina Hurricanes, marking the fifth time in the previous six games that they've scored at least four goals.

Best Under play

Buffalo Sabres (0-4 O/U)

Who else? The Sabres have been strong under plays all season - and last week was no exception, as the retooled roster managed just six goals in four games while stumbling to a 1-3-0 record. Buffalo opened with a 3-2 loss in Dallas, then defeated Tampa Bay 3-1 and dropped a 2-0 decision against the Panthers to split a pair of games in Florida. The Sabres finished strong, hanging in against the defending-champion Chicago Blackhawks before ultimately losing 2-1 to fall to 12-14-8 in one-goal games on the season.

Surveying the schedule

Time is running out for the Vancouver Canucks, who open the week four points out of eighth place in the Western Conference with just 16 games remaining. The Canucks are going through their worst stretch in recent memory, with only a pair of one-goal victories over the St. Louis Blues and Calgary Flames keeping them from 13 consecutive losses. Vancouver opens with what could be the easiest game of the week - a home date with the New York Islanders - before embarking on a four-game road trip that begins with visits to Winnipeg, Washington and Florida.

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Hockey Crusher
New York Rangers -133 over Carolina Hurricanes
(System Record: 72-2, won last 2 games)
Overall Record: 72-58-1

Basketball Crusher
Florida Atlantic PK over Marshall
(System Record: 59-7, won last 4 games)
Overall Record: 59-69-4

Soccer Crusher
Portuguesa RJ + Bragantino UNDER 2.5
This match is happening in Brazil
(System Record: 536-18, lost last game)
Overall Record: 536-457-9

Here are the rest of his hockey and basketball plays for today...


Hockey
Buffalo Sabres +103 over Nashville Predators
Florida Panthers -105 over Phoenix
New Jersey Devils +124 over Philadelphia Flyers


Basketball
Wisconsin Milwaukee +6 over Wright St
Howard +1 over North Carolina A&T
East Carolina -5.5 over Texas-San Antonio

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POINTWISE

COLLEGE BASKETBALL

(8:00) PRINCETON 75 - Pennsylvania 55 _____ _____

BEST BETS: NONE

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POINTWISE

NBA BASKETBALL

(7:05) INDIANA PACERS 101 - Boston Celtics 95 _____ _____

(7:35) Sacramento Kings 113 - DETROIT PISTONS 110 _____ _____

(8:05) Portland Trailblazers 104 - MEMPHIS 103 _____ _____

(8:05) MINNESOTA T'WOLVES 113 - Milwaukee 90 _____ _____

(8:05) CHICAGO BULLS 108 - San Antonio Spurs 107 _____ _____

(8:05) OKLAHOMA CITY 105 - Houston Rockets 92 _____ _____

(10:35) Dallas Mavericks 108 - GOLDEN STATE 106 _____ _____

BEST BETS
SACRAMENTO
MINNESOTA (1)
OKLAHOMA CITY (2)

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NBA

Hot teams
-- Celtics won three of last five games, after losing 10 of their previous 13 games.
-- Spurs won their last six games (3-3 vs spread). Chicago won six of its last eight games.
-- Grizzlies won four of their last five games.
-- Minnesota won seven of its last ten games.
-- Rockets won last five games, covered three of last four.
-- Dallas is 12-5 in last 17 games, but lost last two on road. Warriors won five of their last six games.

Cold Teams
-- Pacers lost last four games, by 2-22-26-11 points.
-- Pistons lost seven of their last eight games. Sacxramento lost five of its last seven.
-- Portland lost three of its last four games.
-- Bucks lost five of their last seven games.
-- Thunder is 3-5 in last eight games but won last three at home.

Series records
-- Pacers won last three games with Boston by 15-27-5 points.
-- Pistons won seven of last eight games with Sacramento.
-- Bulls won five of last eight games with San Antonio.
-- Grizzlies won five of last six games with Portland.
-- Bucks lost three in row vs Minnesota by 10-9-18 points.
-- Thunder won six of last eight games with Houston.
-- Mavericks lost four of last five games at Oakland.

Totals
-- Five of last seven Boston games went over the total.
-- Five of last six Indiana-Sacramento games went over total.
-- Eight of last ten Chicago-San Antonio games stayed under.
-- Eight of last nine Portland games stayed under total.
-- Eight of last nine Milwaukee games went over total.
-- Seven of last eight Rocket-Thunder games stayed under.
-- Seven of last ten Dallas games went over the total.

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NHL

Hot teams
-- Flyers won seven of their last nine games.
-- Rangers won eight of their last twelve games.
-- Blue Jackets won four of their last five games.
-- Coyotes won three of their last four games.
-- Penguins won three of their last four games.
-- Blues won their last five games, allowing eight goals. Dallas won five of last seven games.
-- San Jose won six of its last eight tilts. Toronto won its last three games, allowing six goals.


Cold teams
-- Predators lost seven of their last nine games. Buffalo lost three of last four.
-- Devils lost six of their last eight road games.
-- Carolina lost seven of its last eight games.
-- Red Wings lost three of their last four games.
-- Panthers lost six of their last eight games.
-- Washington lost four of its last five games.
-- Oilers lost four of their last six games. Minnesota lost last two games by goal each, after winning previous five.

Totals
-- Five of last six Nashville games stayed under total.
-- Last six New Jersey games went over the total.
-- Over is 7-2-2 in last eleven Hurricane-Ranger games.
-- Four of last six Columbus games went over total.
-- Five of last seven Florida games went over total.
-- 10 of last 14 Pittsburgh-Washington games stayed under.
-- Four of last five Dallas games went over the total.
-- Under is 8-1-1 in last ten Edmonton games.
-- Six of last nine Toronto games stayed under total.

Series records
-- Sabres won three of their last five games with Nashville.
-- Flyers lost nine of last twelve games with New Jersey.
-- Rangers won their last ten games with Carolina.
-- Blue Jackets won three of last four games with Detroit.
-- Coyotes won two of last three games with Florida (two of three went OT).
-- Penguins won their last seven games with Washington.
-- Blues won seven of last eight games with Dallas.
-- Oilers lost six of last seven games with Minnesota.
-- Sharks won six of last seven games with Toronto.

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Gamblers Data

Free Plays Tuesday

SF Giants +105

Oakland A’s +105

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Free Selection from Arthur Ralph Sports

Free Play 19-9 RUN Princeton -14

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NCAAB

Tuesday, March 11

Penn (+8.5) upset Princeton 77-74 at home Jan 11, just its second win in last 10 series games; Quakers were +17 on boards that night, but they've lost last four visits here, by 12-3-10-12 points, are 1-5 on Ivy road, with losses by 9-30-15-7-19 points. Princeton won four in row, seven of last nine games; only two of those seven wins were by more than 11 points. Penn is making an anemic 25.6% of its 3's in conference play.

C-USA tournament (El Paso)
Rice (+1.5) jumped out to 25-8 lead, held off North Texas 75-70 Feb 6 in teams' only meeting this year, but they're 0-7 since, coming within 10 points in only two of seven games. Owls are 21-91 in league games last seven years, 2-5 in this tournament, losing first game last two years by 2-5 points. UNT is 4-7 in its last 11 games, with three of four wins by exactly two points. 11 of last 13 Rice games stayed under total.

Florida Atlantic (+4) won 65-57 at Marshall Feb 1, making 20-29 (69%) inside arc, but Owls lost their last six games overall, are 0-5 in last five conference tourneys- they fired their coach couple weeks ago. Marshall lost seven of its last nine games, going 2-6 on C-USA road. Seven of last nine Marshall games stayed under total; six of last nine FAU games went over. When Marshall coach gets fired (someday) he can thank DeAndre Kane for transferring from marshall to Iowa State.

East Carolina beat Tex-San Antonio 81-71 (-9) at home Feb 8, in teams' first C-USA meeting, outscoring Roadrunners 29-15 on foul line in game that UTSA made closer in garbage time. Home team won last eight ECU games- they're 1-7 on C-USA road, with only win at UAB. Pirates won first tourney game two of last three years, after going 0-5 previous five tourneys. Nine of last ten East Carolina games stayed under total.

Horizon tourney (Dayton)
Home side won both Milwaukee-Wright State games this year; Panthers (+7) lost 73-57 here Jan 21, then beat Wright 68-64 (+2) at home nine days later. Panthers lost last nine visits here, with three of last four by 16+ points. Wright won its last six games, four by 7 or less points; they held last five opponents to 63 or less points- they lost in finals of this event twice in last four years. Milwaukee's last four tourney losses are all by 9+ points- their last tourney title was 2006.

Summit tourney (Sioux Falls, SD)
Home side won both Fort Wayne-North Dakota State games this year; Mastadons (+7) won 82-71 at home Jan 9, then lost 69-58 (+13) Feb 9. Bison won four of last six series games, overall. Fort Wayne beat home team last night, but used three subs 23+ minutes in much tougher game than Bison had with Denver. FW won five in row, 18 of last 23 games; they lost by hoop at Illinois. Bison won last eight games- they won at Notre Dame when Jerian Grant was still playing for Irish.

WCC tourney (Las Vegas)
Gonzaga is 19-3 in last 22 WCC tourney games; they're in final for 14th year in row. Zags beat BYU 84-69 (-8.5) Jan 25, then lost 73-65 (+3) in Provo Feb 20, just second win for Cougars vs Gonzaga in seven WCC meetings. BYU is in first final, in its third year in league; they had much tougher game in semis last night, beating USF in OT, using four starters 34:00+; Haws/Collinsworth played 40+. David Stockton scored 21 last night, unusually good production for the senior guard.

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This week's best NBA spot bet opportunities

Letdown spot

Golden State is playing some good basketball right now, and the Warriors come into their Tuesday night home game against Dallas on a 4-game winning streak. Golden State will play in Los Angeles against the Clippers the next night before having Thursday off. The Warriors will host Cleveland on Friday night then play next at Portland on Sunday.

The Warriors will play three strong teams from the Western Conference and one also-ran from the East. Golden State’s games against the Mavericks, Clippers, and Trail Blazers are much more important than their tilt against the Cavaliers. The Warriors will likely take the Cleveland game lightly on Friday night since they’ll be in a flat spot off their previous two games with the game in Portland on deck.


Lookahead spot

Milwaukee has had a dismal season, and they begin this week with just 12 wins. The Bucks play a brutal schedule this week with five games, including three on the road. It’s hard to say the Bucks will look past any opponent, but that may well be the case on Saturday night in New York.

The Bucks beat the Knicks the last time they played, and since that game will the Bucks’ fourth in six nights, they may fail to show up in New York. They’ll have an eye on Sunday’s home game versus Charlotte. The Bucks lost 111-110 in overtime in Charlotte after a blowing an 18-point lead, so Milwaukee may concede the game in New York on Saturday in order to avenge their loss to the Bobcats on Sunday.


Schedule spot

Portland has three important games on tap this week. The Trail Blazers will play at Memphis and at San Antonio on a back-to-back set, and they’ll host Golden State on Sunday. The Trail Blazers will be in a poor scheduling spot for their game on Friday night in New Orleans.

The Trail Blazers will be playing their third game in four nights against the Pelicans, and that game just happens to fall in between their tough back-to-back set and their crucial home game against the Warriors. The Pelicans will be off the night before, and they’ll be playing just their second game over a 5-day stretch.

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Gold Sheet Key Release

Chicago by 6 over San Antonio