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GAME: Georgia Tech @ Georgia Nov 29, 2008 12:00PM
SPORT: College Football Picks
PICK: Georgia
REASON FOR PICK: 4* #366 GEORGIA over GEORGIA TECH
We started the college football regular season by having a lot of success taking the S.E.C. against a vastly inferior A.C.C. when the right pairings were available, and what better way to spend a Saturday than by not only re-visiting that particular concept, but also using an annual series that has provided us meat to put between the bread many times?
Here is the gist of this one – Georgia has won seven straight against Georgia Tech, going 5-1-1 ATS in the process, and beating the pointspread by a combined 65.5 points over those games. How do the oddsmakers miss such a series by an average of 9.5 points per contest over such a span? Because basically we get the same layout each time – the previous two months Georgia Tech is taking on much inferior competition than Georgia, and it sets up perceptions that just do not match the true realities of the gap between these programs. It is the same again here, and with the marketplace helping to drop this one into our laps we can step in again.
The Yellow Jackets have adapted better to Paul Johnson’s offensive schemes than we thought that they would in his first season, but some of that has to be taken with a grain of salt – they were playing in a weak conference, and most opposing defenses were seeing these designs for the first time. Now they not only have to face a Georgia defense loaded with athleticism up front, but it is also a defense that has two full weeks to prepare for those tactics, including a chance to sit back and watch Tech on national television last Thursday night. That helps not just tactically, but the fact that the Yellow Jackets were blowing out Miami also fully alerts Mark Richt’s squad to the challenge that is at hand.
Not only does Georgia bring the defensive tools here, but that outstanding corps of skill players can make plays vs. a defense that has not seen anything near this class of offense all season. The emotions will run particularly high on the Bulldog sidelines, because we are being told that this will be QB Matthew Stafford’s last game between the hedges. Stafford, Knowshon Moreno and the rest of the cast can exploit a Tech defense that will be without key LB Sedric Griffin (their third leading tackler), and S Dominique Reese, and while the Jackets do hope to have Jahi Word-Daniels back in the secondary, he has missed the last four games with a hamstring injury, and his timing will be an issue.
Forget Marshall staying with this team today because its not happening. Forget about the Thundering Herds week 1 win over Illinois State when they scored 35 points. Since that game that have scored in the 30s just twice this year but heres the bigger problem they have scored over 21 just 3 times excluding week 1.
Tulsa has scored below 40 points just 3 times this season and over 30 points in every game except for their loss at Arkansas. This team will score at will today and I do not see how Marshall will be able to match it. Look for Tulsa to at least 50 on this Marshall team as I feel this will be one major blowout.
College Football
North Carolina/Duke Over 44
For the first time in many years we cant say that we are looking forward to just the basketball matchup between both schools. Duke really turned the page this year and are no longer the laughing stock of college football. UNC has great athletes and themselves had a good year. Duke will not be playing in a bowl game so this is it today. UNC can lock up a decent bowl game if they get to 8 wins on the year. Look for the athletic ability for both teams to shine today. This should be a back and forth shootout. Take the Over.
Tennessee -4 over Kentucky
The Vols were picked on by the media all year which lead to coach Fulmers departure. This will be his last home game and he has done a lot for this program and his players have his respect. Tennessee still has the athletic ability to beat a lot of good football teams. This year they were plagued by turnovers. Look for the Vols to send their coach out in style today. Take Tennessee.
Baylor +22 over Texas Tech
The pressure of winning might catch up with Tech today. This football team needs a lot of help from their competition for things to work out for them in a title game. Baylor is much like Duke as they have turned the corner. Baylor has a decent running QB who will control the clock when they have the ball. I do not think Baylor can win outright, but they should keep it close.
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