3-16-14

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ACC Championship betting preview: Virginia vs. Duke

Duke Blue Devils vs. Virginia Cavaliers (+1)

Duke is no stranger to winning ACC tournaments, but the team standing between the Blue Devils and another conference title is in unfamiliar territory. Top-seeded Virginia makes its first appearance in the ACC championship game since 1994 and aims for its second conference tournament title - and first since 1976 - when it faces No. 3 seed Duke on Sunday. The Blue Devils have won six ACC titles at Greensboro Coliseum, the site of the championship game, under head coach Mike Krzyzewski and are looking for their conference-leading 20th tournament title.

The Cavaliers advanced with a 51-48 victory over Pittsburgh in Saturday’s semifinals on Anthony Gill’s two free throws with 8.5 seconds remaining, while the Blue Devils smothered ACC Player of the Year T.J. Warren in the second half of Duke’s 75-67 victory in the other semifinal. The Cavaliers had their chances to beat the Blue Devils on the road in January, rallying from an 11-point deficit to take a late lead before Rasheed Sulaimon’s 3-pointer saved Duke 69-65. Duke leads the ACC in scoring offense, while Virginia features the nation’s top scoring defense.

TV: 1 p.m. ET, ESPN

LINE HISTORY: Line opened as a pick 'em, but quickly shifted to Virginia +1

INJURY WATCH: N/A

WHY BET DUKE (26-7 SU, 18-14-1 ATS, 14-18-1 O/U): Freshman Jabari Parker looks to cap what likely will be his only college season with a tournament title, having scored in double figures 16 consecutive games while averaging 19.1 points per contest. Sulaimon, who scored 21 points in the earlier victory over the Cavaliers, has reached double figures in five consecutive games. Duke has won nine of its past 11 games.

WHY BET VIRGINIA (27-6 SU, 17-10-2 ATS, 12-15-2 O/U): The Cavaliers allow 55.1 points per game and have held their past 20 opponents to less than 50 percent shooting, limiting the opposition to less than 60 points in nine of the past 10 games. The Cavaliers do not have a player in the top 20 in the conference in scoring, but London Perrantes is third in the league in assist-to-turnover ratio. Gill has scored in double figures in the past three games to provide an offensive boost to leading scorer Malcolm Brogdon (12.4 points).

TRENDS:
* Under is 8-3 in the last 11 meetings.
* Blue Devils are 1-5 ATS in the last six meetings.
* Cavaliers are 9-0-2 ATS in their last 11 games vs. a team with a winning % above .600.
* Under is 6-0 in Blue Devils last six neutral site games.

CONSENSUS: 56% of bettors are backing Duke -1

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SEC Championship betting preview: Kentucky vs. Florida

Kentucky Wildcats vs. Florida Gators (-5.5)

No. 1 Florida looks to win its first SEC tournament title since 2007 when it takes on Kentucky in Sunday's final in Atlanta. The top-seeded Gators have reeled off a school-record 25 consecutive victories and will appear in the conference championship for the third time in four years after erasing a seven-point halftime deficit to beat Tennessee 56-49. Florida finished the SEC regular season with a perfect 18-0 record and can cap off a dream conference campaign with its third win over the Wildcats in just over a month.

Kentucky advanced to the championship game for the fourth time in the last five years with a 70-58 triumph over Georgia. The second-seeded Wildcats are the only school to have won over 100 games in the SEC tournament and hope to add to a conference-best 27 tourney titles with a victory over the Gators at the Georgia Dome. Kentucky has won six conference championships in Atlanta causing its fans to rename the city "Catlanta" as it aims to overcome a Florida team that has won three of the last four meetings.

TV: 3 p.m. ET, ABC

LINE HISTORY: Lines opened at Florida -5.5

INJURY WATCH: Kentucky - Marcus Lee (Ques - illness)

ABOUT FLORIDA (31-2, 16-12-1 ATS, 9-19-1 O/U): Patric Young poured in a game-high 16 points to go along with eight rebounds as the Gators came back from their biggest deficit of the season (10) to down Tennessee. Casey Prather continued his stellar play by scoring 12 points and dishing out a team-best five assists versus the Volunteers. Florida beat Kentucky in its two previous meetings this season by double digits with Prather and Scottie Wilbekin averaging 19.5 and 18 points respectively in the victories.

ABOUT KENTUCKY (24-9, 14-15-2 ATS, 12-17-1 O/U): Aaron Harrison scored 16 of his game-high 22 points in the first half and twin brother Andrew Harrison netted 10 of his 12 points in the final frame to help the Wildcats pull away from Georgia. Julius Randle scored 12 points and grabbed 11 rebounds to notch his 20th double-double and can break the school record for most by a freshman in a single season with another one versus Florida. Willie Cauley-Stein recorded two blocks against the Bulldogs and has posted at least one swat in his last 13 outings.

TRENDS:
*Wildcats are 6-13-1 ATS in their last 20 games following a ATS win.
*Under is 8-1 in Wildcats last 9 Sunday games.
*Under is 29-12-1 in Gators last 42 overall.
*Wildcats are 1-4 ATS in the last 5 meetings.

COVERS CONSENSUS: 67% of bettors are backing Florida -5.5

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Bob Balfe

Duke has lived by the 3 pointer all year and when this team gets hot they can beat anybody. The problem for the Blue Devils is this Virginia team can guard the longer shot. Where Virginia is vulnerable is when big powerful players go right to the paint for dunks and layups. That is really not Duke’s game. Virginia was the best team in the conference this year and are one win away from winning the ACC Tournament. This team played Duke to the wire on the road and here on a neutral court I think they have the edge. Virginia can get to the foul line and score points with the clock stopped. This should be a good one, but I think Virginia is the better team geared up to win this one. Take Virginia.

VIRGINIA +1

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Game of the Day: Rockets at Heat

Houston Rockets at Miami Heat (-5, 209)

The Miami Heat are experiencing their worst stretch of the season and will try to regain their touch when they host the Houston Rockets in Sunday’s nationally televised contest. Miami has lost five of its last six games and is threatening to fall out of the derby with the Indiana Pacers for top seed in the Eastern Conference. Houston was playing superbly until losing its last two games and is in fourth place in the Western Conference.

The recent slide is easily Miami’s worst stretch of the season and it began with a 106-103 loss to Houston on March 4. Center Chris Bosh was highly disappointed after the Heat lost to the lowly Denver Nuggets 111-107 on Friday. “Five out of six, to our standards, that’s unacceptable,” Bosh told reporters. “We know we’re better than this. We have to do a better job. We have to have better urgency.” The Rockets are wrapping up a three-game trip that began with losses to Oklahoma City and Chicago.

TV: 3:30 p.m. ET, ABC

LINE HISTORY: Miami opens as a 5-point favorite with a total of 209.

INJURY WATCH: N/A

WHY BET THE ROCKETS (44-21 SU, 33-30-2 ATS, 31-32-2 O/U): Houston lost just twice in a 17-game span prior to the consecutive losses and hasn’t lost three straight games all season. The Rockets were routed by the Bulls 111-87 on Thursday and shot just 35.4 percent from the field and 5-of-26 from 3-point range in an effort that greatly disturbed coach Kevin McHale. “We did not come out ready to play,” McHale said afterward. “I have no idea why. You have to ask them. We did not offensive or defensively start the game. We were walking it up, not running.”

WHY BET THE HEAT (44-19 SU, 28-33-2 ATS, 31-32-2 O/U): Forward LeBron James hasn’t scored more than 23 points in any game during Miami’s recent down stretch. James had failed to reach 20 points in three of the six outings and is just 5-of-21 from 3-point range. The superstar hasn’t posted a double-double since Feb. 12 and his career-high 61-point outing against the Charlotte Bobcats on March 3 marks the only time this month he has scored more than 30 points. James had 22 points but just one rebound in the recent loss to Houston.

TRENDS:
* Over is 5-1 in the last six meetings.
* Rockets are 4-1 ATS in the last five meetings.
* Heat are 13-5 ATS in their last 18 Sunday games.
* Under is 4-1 in Heat last five overall.

CONSENSUS: 52% of bettors are backing the Rockets +5

[Can'tPickAWinner]

NBA

Hot teams
-- Bobcats won five of their last six games.
-- Raptors won five of their last six games.
-- Minnesota won five of its last eight games.
-- Oklahoma City won five of its last seven games. Mavericks won three of their last four.
-- Spurs won last nine games, covered five of last six.
-- Clippers won their last ten games (7-2-1 vs spread). Cavaliers won three of their last five road games.

Cold Teams
-- Bucks lost six of their last seven games.
-- Suns lost three of their last four games.
-- Heat lost five of their last six games. Houston lost its last two games by 8-24 points.
-- New Orleans lost ten of its last thirteen games. Celtics lost five of their last seven.
-- Sacramento lost four of its last five games.
-- Jazz lost eight of their last nine games.
-- Portland lost four of its last five games. Warriors lost last two games, after winning previous five.

Series records
-- Bobcats won their last four games with Milwaukee.
-- Raptors won three of last four games with Phoenix.
-- Rockets beat Miami 106-103 March 4, snapping 7-game series skid.
-- Pelicans won their last four games against Boston.
-- Kings lost three of last four visits to Minnesota.
-- Thunder won their last seven games with Dallas.
-- Spurs won 15 of their last 17 games with Utah.
-- Warriors won four of last five games with Portland.
-- Clippers lost eight of last ten games with Cleveland.

Totals
-- Four of last five Charlotte games stayed under total.
-- Last four Toronto home games stayed under total.
-- Five of last six Houston-Miami games went over.
-- Four of last five New Orleans games went over total.
-- Last five Sacramento games stayed under the total.
-- Under is 5-2-1 in last eight Maverick-Thunder games.
-- Seven of last ten Utah games stayed under the total.
-- Under is 6-1-1 in last eight Golden State games.
-- Four of last five Cleveland-Clipper games stayed under.

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NHL

Hot teams
-- Flyers won eight of their last eleven games. Penguins won three of last four.
-- Maple Leafs won four of their last five games.
-- San Jose won its last five games, allowing 11 goals.
-- Avalanche won six of their last eight games.
-- Dallas Stars won three of their last four games.

Cold teams
-- Vancouver lost six of its last eight games. Panthers lost seven of last ten.
-- Caps lost five of their last seven games.
-- Hurricanes lost seven of their last ten games. Edmonton lost three of its last four.
-- Rangers lost five of their last eight games.
-- Senators lost four of their last five games.
-- Buffalo lost its last five games, outscored 16-5. Canadiens lost three of last four games.
-- Blackhawks lost five of their last eight games. Detroit lost its last three road games, outscored 11-4.
-- Winnipeg lost its last six games by total of eight goals.

Totals
-- Five of last seven Philly games went over total.
-- Under is 18-13-5 in Vancouver road games this season.
-- Five of last six Toronto-Washington games stayed under.
-- Four of last five Carolina games went over the total.
-- Seven of last nine San Jose games went over the total.
-- Four of last five Colorado games stayed under the total.
-- Over is 3-1-1 in last five Montreal games.
-- Four of last five Detroit games stayed under the total.
-- Four of last five Dallas Star games went over the total.

Series records
-- Flyers won last two games with Penguins, allowing one goal.
-- Home side won five of last six Vancouver-Florida games.
-- Washington won five of its last eight games with Toronto.
-- Home side won five of last six Edmonton-Carolina games.
-- Rangers are 3-2 in last five games with Sharks, but lost 9-2 at San Jose on Oct 8.
-- Avalanche won last six games with Ottawa, with three of last five wins in OT.
-- Canadiens won their last three games with Buffalo.
-- Blackhawks won three of last four games with Detroit.
-- Jets lost four of last six games with Dallas.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

NCAAB

Sunday, March 16

Duke hasn't won ACC tourney since 2011; they won six of nine before that. Virginia is in first ACC tourney final since '95; their last title was in '76. Blue Devils (-6) beat Virginia 69-65 at home Jan 13, getting a lucky bounce on 3-ball from corner for winning shot in last minute. Duke won three in row, 14 of last 17 games overall; they played four starters 31+ Saturday. Virginia is 15-1 since loss at Duke; they played four starters 30+ minutes in physical game with Pitt yesterday.

VCU's Melvin Johnson (14 points/23:00 vs St Joe's) got hurt yesterday, is out here; Rams (-3) lost 69-62 at St Joe's Feb 8. Hawks only turned ball over 12 times that games. VCU won its last six games, five by 11 or more points; they're now 23-7 in last 30 conference tourney games, with three titles in last seven years. St Joe's doesn't have a conference tourney title in last decade, even the year they were undefeated coming in- they played one sub yesterday, before clearing bench in last 2:00.

Georgia State swept UL-Lafayette this season, winning 77-70 (-2.5) on road, then 80-77 (-7.5) at home 22 days ago. Panthers had walkover vs Arkansas State yesterday- ASU played four OTs night before, so they had dead legs. GSU is 22-1 since starting season 3-6, but this game will define its season. ULL won its last three games by total of eight points; with tourney in New Orleans, Cajuns will have crowd edge. ULL last won this tournament in 2005.

Florida is trying to finish SEC play 21-0 this year, hard to do; they beat Kentucky twice already, 69-59 on road, then 84-65 at home eight days ago. Gators haven't lost since Dec 2, already have #1 seed locked up, but this is rivalry game- they held Mizzou/Tennessee to 49 points each in first two tourney games. Wildcats won first two tourney games by 17-12 points after going 3-4 in last seven regular season games; they're 1-3-1 vs spread this season when getting points.

Michigan beat Michigan State twice this season, 80-75 on road, 79-70 at home three weeks ago; Wolverines won last seven games overall, but last three were by total of 8 points- they haven't won this tournament in last 11 years. Spartans' only tourney title since '03 was two years ago; they were up 17 at half over Wisconsin yesterday, are still just 6-6 in last 12 games. Am thinking Ohio State is bigger rival for Michigan than State is, so this game is bigger for Sparty, considering two losses during year.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Cappers Access

Virginia +1.5
Florida -5.5

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Fact or Fiction
by Mike Rose

We're officially in the stretch run here of the 2013-14 NBA season, and there are teams jockeying for position in both conferences. To sort through what's fact and what's fiction of what we have seen in the last week in the Association, we're going to go over six pressing topics and make our decisions as to whether they're the truth or just some made up unreality.

FACT

LeBron James really has something wrong with him: It's called pressure: The Heat aren't the best team in the Eastern Conference this year (more on that in a minute), and the man they call King James is at the center of all of the pressure. James knows that he has to carry the Heat this year, because Dwyane Wade and Chris Bosh aren't going to be able to do it by themselves. The end result? LeBron has averaged just 20.0 points per game in his last five, seven points off of his average, and the Heat are just 1-4 ATS in that five-game stretch.

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Andrew Bynum clearly makes the Pacers the beasts of the East: Sorry, Miami. You just can't defend against big guys. Indiana debuted Bynum earlier this week, and though he didn't play all that long against Boston, he still had eight points and 10 boards. Granted, playing against the Celtics and playing against the Heat are two totally different challenges. That being said though, the Pacers now have the goods (and a much easier schedule these next few weeks) to officially lock down that #1 seed in the Eastern Conference.

The Lakers badly need a big man: The only way that the Lakers are winning games nowadays is when they get a superhuman effort out of a scorer from the perimeter. Jodie Meeks was the man that did it on Sunday against Oklahoma City, but we saw what else happened in that game. LA was outrebounded by 23. The second time around when the Thunder took on the Lakers, the same type of script happened. OKC was +23 in the rebounding department, and with Meeks leading the team with just 19 points, that wasn't enough to even remotely come close to covering a 16.5-point spread.

FICTION

Houston can't play defense: It's easy to say that the Rockets have the 17th best defense in the league this year because they allow 101.8 points per game. However, they also hold teams down to just 43.9 percent shooting from the field and 35.0 percent from beyond the arc, both numbers of which rank in the Top 10 in the Association. The Rockets also have held down some massive scorers of late, not the least of which is LeBron, and they rank eighth in the NBA in points allowed per possession. Houston won't win the NBA title this year in all likelihood, but this newly found defense certainly makes it a lot more plausible.

The Hawks are back on track: Wins over Milwaukee and Utah don't do it for us, and the truth of the matter is that neither will wins over these next two foes, Denver and Charlotte either. The Hawks flat out stink. They had lost 14 of their previous 15 games before those two wins, and the last time they beat a team that is even perhaps going to sniff the playoffs was back on January 20th. Since then, against teams in the Top 8 in either conference, the Hawks are 0-13 SU and 2-10-1 ATS.

The Grizzlies are going to make the playoffs: Most believe now that the Grizzlies surged past the Mavericks in the Southwest Division that they'll end up getting into the postseason. We're not so optimistic, though we do think that Memphis has the better of the two teams. The Grizz still have to play road games against Toronto, Miami, Golden State, Portland, Denver (in the second half of a back-to-back), San Antonio, and Phoenix, and they have home games against Indiana, Miami, and Dallas on the last night of the season as well. That's a heck of a run considering the fact that there is only a month left in the season, and the Grizzlies might be in a lot of trouble because of it.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Brandon Lang

10 Dimes - Virginia Cavaliers +1 over the Duke Blue Devils, 1:00 PM EST

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NCAA Basketball Picks

Michigan State vs. Michigan

The Spartans advanced to the Big Ten final yesterday with an 83-75 win over Wisconsin and faces a Michigan team that is coming off a 71-68 win over Ohio State and is 3-7 ATS in its last 10 games following a SU victory. Michigan State is the pick (-3) according to Dunkel, which has the Spartans favored by 5 1/2. Dunkel Pick: Michigan State (-3). Here are all of today's games.

SUNDAY, MARCH 16 Time Posted: 9:00 a.m. EST

Game 889-890: Duke vs. Virginia (1:00 p.m. EST) Dunkel Ratings: Duke 73.944; Virginia 70.484 Dunkel Line: Duke by 3 1/2; 123 Vegas Line: Duke by 1; 129 Dunkel Pick: Duke (-1); Under

Game 891-892: St. Joseph's vs. VCU (1:00 p.m. EST) Dunkel Ratings: St. Joseph's 63.920; VCU 66.247 Dunkel Line: VCU by 2 1/2; 131 Vegas Line: VCU by 5; 138 Dunkel Pick: St. Joseph's (+5); Under

Game 893-894: UL-Lafayette vs. Georgia State (1:00 p.m. EST) Dunkel Ratings: UL-Lafayette 56.748; Georgia State 61.948 Dunkel Line: Georgia State by 5; 155 Vegas Line: Georgia State by 7; 150 1/2 Dunkel Pick: UL-Lafayette (+7); Over

Game 895-896: Kentucky vs. Florida (3:15 p.m. EST) Dunkel Ratings: Kentucky 70.531; Florida 74.842 Dunkel Line: Florida by 4 1/2; 124 Vegas Line: Florida by 6 1/2; 130 Dunkel Pick: Kentucky (+6 1/2); Under

Game 897-898: Michigan State vs. Michigan (3:30 p.m. EST) Dunkel Ratings: Michigan State 75.976; Michigan 70.396 Dunkel Line: Michigan State by 5 1/2; 132 Vegas Line: Michigan State by 3; 138 Dunkel Pick: Michigan State (-3); Under

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Today's NBA Picks

Houston at Miami

The Heat (25-6 at home) host Houston today as the Rockets come in with a 1-4 ATS record in their last 5 road games against teams with a winning home record. Miami is the pick (-5) according to Dunkel, which has the Heat favored by 7 1/2. Dunkel Pick: Miami (-5). Here are all of today's picks.

SUNDAY, MARCH 16 Time Posted: 9:30 a.m. EST

Game 871-872: Phoenix at Toronto (1:00 p.m. EST) Dunkel Ratings: Phoenix 116.772; Toronto 128.585 Dunkel Line & Total: Toronto by 12; 208 Vegas Line & Total: Toronto by 4 1/2; 203 Dunkel Pick: Toronto (-4 1/2); Over

Game 873-874: Charlotte at Milwaukee (1:00 p.m. EST) Dunkel Ratings: Charlotte 118.318; Milwaukee 116.146 Dunkel Line & Total: Charlotte by 2; 205 Vegas Line & Total: Charlotte by 5 1/2; 198 1/2 Dunkel Pick: Milwaukee (+5 1/2); Over

Game 875-876: Houston at Miami (3:30 p.m. EST) Dunkel Ratings: Houston 121.159; Miami 128.893 Dunkel Line & Total: Miami by 7 1/2; 212 Vegas Line & Total: Miami by 5; 208 1/2 Dunkel Pick: Miami (-5); Over

Game 877-878: Boston at New Orleans (6:00 p.m. EST) Dunkel Ratings: Boston 110.261; New Orleans 117.623 Dunkel Line & Total: New Orleans by 7 1/2; 188 Vegas Line & Total: New Orleans by 5 1/2; 195 1/2 Dunkel Pick: New Orleans (-5 1/2); Under

Game 879-880: Dallas at Oklahoma City (7:00 p.m. EST) Dunkel Ratings: Dallas 119.337; Oklahoma City 122.207 Dunkel Line & Total: Oklahoma City by 3; 209 Vegas Line & Total: Oklahoma City by 8; 216 Dunkel Pick: Dallas (+8); Under

Game 881-882: Utah at San Antonio (7:00 p.m. EST) Dunkel Ratings: Utah 110.682; San Antonio 132.038 Dunkel Line & Total: San Antonio by 21 1/2; 205 Vegas Line & Total: San Antonio by 15; 199 Dunkel Pick: San Antonio (-15); Over

Game 883-884: Sacramento at Minnesota (7:00 p.m. EST) Dunkel Ratings: Sacramento 114.886; Minnesota 120.436 Dunkel Line & Total: Minnesota by 5 1/2; 215 Vegas Line & Total: Minnesota by 7 1/2; 211 1/2 Dunkel Pick: Sacramento (+7 1/2); Over

Game 885-886: Golden State at Portland (9:00 p.m. EST) Dunkel Ratings: Golden State 120.937; Portland 123.792 Dunkel Line & Total: Portland by 3; 202 Vegas Line & Total: Golden State by 2; 208 Dunkel Pick: Portland (+2); Under

Game 887-888: Cleveland at LA Clippers (9:30 p.m. EST) Dunkel Ratings: Cleveland 119.114; LA Clippers 126.902 Dunkel Line & Total: LA Clippers by 8; 199 Vegas Line & Total: LA Clippers by 11 1/2; 206 1/2 Dunkel Pick: Cleveland (+11 1/2); Under

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Advanced Sports Investments

SOCCER
PERRY (11-9 +.46)
italy - serie a
1x- ac fiorentina/ac chievo verona - Over 2.5 -105 (345pm)

russia - premier league
1x- fk volga nizhny nov/rubin kazan - Over 2.5 +115 (1030pm)

turkey - super lig
2x- sanica boru elazigspor/eskisehirspor - Over 2.5 -114 (730am)

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Dave Essler

Michigan +3.5