3-19-14

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NCAA Round 1 betting preview: Tennessee vs. Iowa

Tennessee Volunteers vs. Iowa Hawkeyes (-2.5, 144)

Two teams that ended the regular season going in different directions meet when Iowa faces Tennessee on Wednesday in Dayton to start play in the NCAA tournament’s Midwest Regional. Tennessee makes its 20th appearance after winning six of its last eight and the Volunteers gave No. 1 Florida trouble in the SEC semifinals while Iowa dropped six of its last seven before getting its first bid since 2006. The winner of the game between two No. 11 seeds plays Massachusetts on Friday in Raleigh, N.C.

Tennessee has leaned on its defense of late, allowing 47.4 points per game in the last five, and will play a Hawkeyes team that has averaged 82 for the season – 10th in the nation. Both teams can go deep on the bench while Iowa’s Roy Devyn Marble and Jordan McRae of Tennessee were both first-team picks in their respective conferences. The key might be on the boards where both teams stand in the top 20 in the nation.

TV: 9:10 p.m. ET, TruTV

LINE HISTORY: The Volunteers opened at -2 and have been bet all the way to 2.5-point dogs. The total opened at 142.5 and has been bet up to 144.

INJURY WATCH: Tennessee: Guard Robert Hubbs - out or season (shoulder)

WHAT SHARPS SAY: "It's a shame that Iowa and Tennessee have to play each other; they are both vastly under-seeded and they could beat a lot of teams in the tournament. Whoever controls the pace will win this game as Iowa likes to play fast while Tennessee likes to play slow," says Covers Expert Steve Merril.

WHAT BOOKS SAY: "Iowa-Tennessee should be a really good matchup for a play-in game as both these programs are use to being in the big dance. We have this game set at Iowa -2.5," says Michael Stewart of Carbon Sports.

CHEERLEADER WAR:



WHY BET TENNESSEE (21-12, 18-13 ATS): The Volunteers are back in the NCAAs for the first time since 2011 after taking care of business down the stretch and flaunting a 35-point victory over ACC champion Virginia in December. McRae averages 18.6 points and has made 75 from 3-point range while Jarnell Stokes has scored in double figures the last 15 games to boast averages of 14.7 points and a team-best 10.3 rebounds overall. Jeronne Maymon averages 10.1 points for the Volunteers and shoots 52.9 percent from the field.

WHY BET IOWA (20-12, 15-15 ATS): Marble has not slumped along with the Hawkeyes, scoring at least 20 points in six of his last seven games to raise his season average to 17.3, and he has drained 101 from 3-point range in the last two seasons. Aaron White gives Iowa an inside force, averaging 13 points, 6.7 rebounds and leading the Big Ten in field goal percentage (59.2). The Hawkeyes will have to get production from others and can depend on good distribution from point guard Mike Gesell, who led the league in assist-turnover ratio at 124-to-42.

TWEET BEAT:



TRENDS:

* Tennessee is 4-1 ATS in its last five games overall.
* Iowa is 0-7 ATS in its last seven games overall.
* Under is 5-0 in Tennessee's last five games overall.
* Over is 9-2 in Iowa's last 11 games overall.

COVERS CONSENSUS: The wagers are almost an even split with Iowa -2.5.

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NCAA Round 1 betting preview: Texas Southern vs. Cal Poly SLO

Texas Southern Tigers vs. Cal Poly SLO Mustangs (-4, 130)

Texas Southern will attempt to stretch its winning streak to 10 games when the Tigers face surprising Cal Poly in a Midwest Region first-round game at the NCAA tournament Wednesday at Dayton. Texas Southern won the Southwestern Athletic Conference tournament to gain an NCAA bid for the fifth time and first since 2003; fellow 16th seed Cal Poly makes its first appearance in the Big Dance after winning the Big West. The winner takes on top seed Wichita State on Friday in St. Louis.

The Tigers, who own a victory at Temple earlier this season, have not lost since Feb. 17 and won three games in their conference tournament by an average of 14 points. The Tigers average 76.2 points, led by SWAC player of the year Aaric Murray, while the Mustangs lean on their defense. Cal Poly had lost nine of its previous 11 games before winning three straight to earn its spot from the seventh seed.

TV: 6:40 p.m. ET, truTV

LINE HISTORY: The line opened Cal Poly -3, was bet down to -2.5 before being bet up to -4. The total has held steady at 130.

INJURY WATCH: N/A.

WHAT SHARPS SAY: "Cal Poly is one of just three teams in the NCAA tournament with a negative offense/defense ratio. They are not a team that should be laying points, but they did play a much tougher schedule than Texas Southern," says Covers Expert Steve Merril.

WHAT BOOKS SAY: "Cal Poly is a better tested team coming out of a tougher conference than Texas Southern and our line reflects that with Cal Poly being a 3.5 point favorite," says Michael Stewart of Carbon Sports.

WHY BET CAL POLY (13-19): Chris Eversley, a 6-7 senior forward, was the Big West tournament MVP for the Mustangs after scoring 32 points combined in the last two games and leads the team in scoring (13.6) and rebounding (7.1). Swingman Dave Nwaba has contributed 11.9 points per contest and shoots 52.8 percent from the field while six-foot guard Kyle Odister has made a team-high 60 3-pointers. Cal Poly was last in the league in scoring (63.2), but first in points allowed (63.4) and has allowed an average of 56.2 over its five.

WHY BET TEXAS SOUTHERN (19-14): Murray, a 6-10 center who played two seasons at LaSalle and one at West Virginia before transferring, scored a season-high 48 points at Temple and poured in 27 in the SWAC title game. Murray averages 21.2 points and 7.7 rebounds while Marshall transfer D’Aris Scarver chips in with 13.3 per contest for the Tigers, who led the SWAC in scoring and field goal percentage (46.2). Jose Rodriguez averages 11.3 points and Madarious Gibbs (9.2) reached double figures in five of his last six games.


TRENDS:

* Texas Southern is 4-11 ATS in its last 15 games vs. a team with a losing SU record.
* Cal Poly is 4-1-1 ATS in its last six neutral site games.
* Cal Poly is 4-12 ATS in its last 16 games overall.
* Over is 4-0 in Cal Poly's last four non-conference games.

COVERS CONSENSUS: Fifty-seven percent of the wagers are on Cal Pol -4.

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Best Over and Under NCAA tournament total bets
By JASON LOGAN

For total bettors, March Madness isn’t about upsets or Cinderellas – it’s all about Overs and Unders. Who gives a crap if a No. 2 seed shocked a No. 15? Did they top the total or not?

We look at which 2014 NCAA tournament teams have the best Over and Under records during the Big Dance, going back to 1998.

Best Over

Kentucky: 30-17-1 63.5%
Stanford: 16-8 67%
Ohio State: 22-12 65%
Gonzaga: 22-10 69%
BYU: 9-4 69%

Best Under

Duke: 24-32 57%
Kansas: 23-31 57%
UCLA: 14-20 59%
North Carolina State: 4-10 71%
New Mexico: 3-7 70%
Kansas State: 4-6 60%
UL Lafayette: 0-3 100%

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Best and worst NCAA tournament bets
By JASON LOGAN

Moving on in March Madness isn’t always enough – especially when pointspreads are involved. Some teams rise to the occasion for NCAAB bettors while others come up short of the oddsmakers’ expectations every year.

We look at which 2014 NCAA tournament teams have the best and worst ATS record during the Big Dance, going back to 1998.

Best ATS

Michigan State: 33-20-1 62%
Florida: 25-15-2 62.5%
Xavier: 18-7-2 72%
VCU: 12-2 86%
Michigan: 9-4 69%
Tulsa: 7-2 78%
Wichita State: 7-2 78%
North Carolina: 28-19-1 59.5%
Arizona: 22-16-1 58%

Worst ATS

Duke: 24-31-1 44%
Ohio State: 15-19 44%
Texas: 14-17-1 45%
Pittsburgh: 10-16 38%
Stanford: 9-15 37.5%
Cincinnati: 8-13 38%
Tennessee: 6-12-2 33%
BYU: 4-9 31%
George Washington: 0-5 0%
New Mexico State: 1-4 20%

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Beware these three teams ending NCAA tournament droughts

The 68 teams participating in this year's March Madness have enough pressure to deal with. But for a handful of select schools, that tension is magnified by the fact that they just don't get to the tournament all that often.

Whether a team is new to the Big Dance or hasn't been there for a while, it can be hard to shake the "happy-to-be-here" sensation, particularly since most of them face difficult first-round matchups. And judging by this year's crop of newcomers, that trend should continue in 2014.

Here are three teams making a rare March Madness appearance:

Cal Poly Mustangs (13-19, 6-10 Big West)

The Mustangs are making their first-ever appearance in the NCAA tournament, earning a spot in a first-round play-in game against the Texas Southern Tigers in a battle of 16th-seeded teams. Despite stumbling to sixth place in the Big West, Cal Poly stunned the college basketball world by rolling past UC Santa Barbara, shading top-seeded UC Irvine and sneaking past Cal State Northridge to win the conference championship. The Mustangs are installed as 3-point favorites against Texas Southern, with the winner taking on unbeaten Wichita State in Round 2 of the Midwest Regional.

North Carolina Central Eagles (28-5, 15-1 Mid-East Atlantic)

The Eagles are the other tournament team making its debut appearance, drawing a 14-seed in the East Regional and an opening encounter with the Iowa State Cyclones Friday night. North Carolina Central steamrolled to a 15-1 conference record, then blasted Howard 92-46, eased past Norfolk State 68-45 and defeated Morgan State 71-62 for its first-ever MEAC title. The Eagles are listed as 9-point underdogs against the Cyclones - the best odds of any 14th-seeded team in the tournament - and would face either North Carolina or Providence in the next round.

Mercer Bears (26-8, 14-4 Atlantic Sun)

No fact can illustrate Mercer's tournament drought better than this: Its only previous March Madness team was led by future NBA head coach and analyst Sam Mitchell. Mercer, seeded 14th in the Midwest Region, will make its first tournament appearance since 1985 when it squares off against the powerhouse Duke Blue Devils Friday afternoon. The Bears, who fell to the John Salley-led Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets in the first round 29 years ago, qualified for this year's event by defeating Florida Gulf Coast 68-60 in the Atlantic Sun final. Mercer is a 13-point dog against Duke.

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NBA

Hot teams
-- Bulls won three of their last four road games.
-- Charlotte won six of its last eight games.
-- Nets won eight of their last ten games.
-- Memphis won five of its last six games.
-- Indiana won last four games, covered once in last ten. Knicks won last six games (5-1 vs spread).
-- Dallas won five of its last six games. Timberwolves won three of their last four road games.
-- Nuggets won three of their last four games.
-- Spurs won last ten games, covered six of last seven.

Cold Teams
-- 76ers lost their last 21 games (6-15 vs spread).
-- Miami covered only twice in last eight games. Celtics lost last five games, but covered seven of their last ten.
-- Jazz lost ten of their last eleven games.
-- New Orleans is 3-4 in its last seven home games. Toronto lost three of its last five games overall.
-- Pistons won/covered once in last six games.
-- Magic lost their last six games. Phoenix lost four of last six.
-- Lakers lost five of their last six games.

Series records
-- 76ers lost four of last five games with Chicago.
-- Heat won six of its last eight games with Boston.
-- Nets won seven of last eight games with Charlotte.
-- Grizzlies won five of last six games with Utah.
-- Raptors won their last five games with New Orleans.
-- Knicks lost five of last six games with Indiana.
-- Minnesota won three of last four visits to Dallas.
-- Detroit lost six of last seven games with Denver.
-- Suns lost five of last six games with Orlando.
-- Spurs won ten of last eleven games with the Lakers.

Totals
-- Seven of last nine Chicago-Philly games stayed under.
-- 10 of last 12 Miami-Boston games went over total.
-- Last five Charlotte games stayed under the total.
-- Four of last five Utah games went over the total.
-- Five of last six Pelican games went over the total.
-- Seven of last nine New York games went over total.
-- Four of last five Minnesota games stayed under total.
-- Eight of last nine Detroit-Denver games went over.
-- Under is 23-11 in Orlando's road games this season.
-- Under is 7-2 in last nine Spur-Laker games.

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NHL

Hot teams
-- Lightning won last three games, scoring 12 goals.
-- Blues won eight of their last nine games.
-- Colorado won seven of its last ten games.


Cold teams
-- Maple Leafs lost three of last four games.
-- Chicago lost three of its last four games.
-- Jets lost seven of their last eight games.
-- Predators lost six of their last nine games. Vancouver lost three of last four at home.

Totals
-- Four of last five Tampa Bay games went over the total.
-- Four of last five Chicago games stayed under the total.
-- Five of last seven Colorado games stayed under total.
-- Four of last five Vancouver games went over the total.

Series records
-- Lightning lost seven of last nine games with Toronto.
-- Blues won five of last six games with Chicago.
-- Avalanche won three of last four games with Winnipeg.
-- Canucks won four of last five games with Nashville.

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Guaranteed picks

Cal poly -4
Vermont +5.5
Tennessee +2.5
Boston university +3
Southern Methodist -9
Denver nuggets -7
Minnesota timberwolves +5.5
Phoenix suns
N.Y.Knicks +3

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RAS

Iowa -1.5

Cal Poly -2.5

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Steve's Golf Picks

Rickie Fowler 50:1
Ian Poulter 80:1
Justin Rose 14.5:1
Keegan Bradley 38:1
Jamie Donaldson 70:1
Martin Laird 120:1

No head to head plays this week.

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Cappers Access

Iowa -2.5
Illinois -2.5
Knicks +2.5

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Gamblers Data

Free Plays Wednesday

Bulls -13

Pistons +7

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NCAAB

Wednesday, March 19

Wednesday's play-in games (Dayton)
Cal Poly was #7 seed in Big West after being picked #2 preseason; they were 2-9 in last 11 games before winning Big West tourney. Mustangs play slower style; this is their first NCAA. Last Big West team to win tourney game was Pacific in ’05- this is league’s first play-in game. Texas Southern is most experienced team in country; C Murray played for West Virginia LY. Coach Davis once led Indiana in national title game, so this is better than normal SWAC team, but they did lose 87-80 at Big West’s Fullerton back in December- they also lost by 9 at Texas Tech, 26 at Stanford, 15 at Miami.

Iowa lost six of last seven games to fall into this game; their coach’s son is having surgery during day Wednesday, not 100% sure McCaffery will be at game. Hawkeyes were 15-3 on Jan 19 but are now 4-8 vs top 50 teams; this is their first NCAA since 2006. Tennessee is in NCAAs for first time since Pearl left; they’ve won five of last six games, losing by 7 in SEC tourney to Florida. Vols are just 2-6 vs teams in top 50, but they beat Virginia by 35 in December. Iowa subs a lot, wants to play fast but they’re inferior defensively to Tennessee. Vols have edge in experience. Winner of this game will be a problem for UMass.

Notes on Other Games- Wednesday
-- Illinois won five of last seven games; they're 11-2 outside conference play. Boston U won at Maryland in Devember, lost by 17 at UConn, 6 at St Joe's- they start three sophs, are playing for the future.
-- Iona won 14 of last 16 games; they lost MAAC title game by 3; they are 3-6 outside MAAC (#15 non-conf schedule). Louisiana Tech won 10 of its last 12 games; they're a very experienced team.
-- Vermont went 15-1 in America East, lost 91-90 at Duke, making 31 of 41 inside arc. Georgia won nine of last 12 games; they were only 6-6 in their non-conference games. Vermont starts four seniors.
-- Toledo beat FAU by 20, its only game vs C-USA team; they're 27-6 overall, better on offense than defense. Southern Miss won six of its last seven games, winning at UTEP, losing to La Tech in C-USA tourney.
-- SMU is best team not to make NCAAs; you never know how teams react to being snubbed (see St John's last nite). Mustangs lost last three games overall. Cal-Irvine won ten of its last twelve games.

-- San Francisco won six of last seven games, losing to BYU in OT in WCC tourney; Dons only have one senior in rotation, so they're trying to get better for next year. LSU lost seven of its last twelve games.
-- Cal is so erratic, no idea how they'll play; they're 5-9 in last 14 games, with last three decided by 4 or less points. Utah Valley was #1 seed in WAC, got beat in tourney- they lost by 15 at Oregon in only game with a Pac-12 teams this season.
-- Old Dominion is 16-17, 6-9 outside C-USA; they don't start a senior. South Dakota State won nine of last 11 games but got beat by Ft Wayne in Summit tourney. Jackrabbits start three seniors.
-- Penn State lost seven of last ten games; Lions are 9-4 outside league play, 4-0 vs teams outside top 200, with all four wins by 12+ points. Hampton lost by 29 at Virginia in its highest-profile game this year.
-- Princeton won its last five games, is 20-8, winning by 14 at Rice in its only game vs C-USA team. Tulane is 17-16 despite kids transferring in wake of their not getting in Big East. Green Wave is 8-7 out of league, and that was 6th-easiest non-league schedule in country.

-- Morehead State lost four of last five games after being 19-9- they turn ball over 22% of time, in bottom 20 in country. Illinois State had all new starters this year, went 9-9 in MVC- they beat Tennessee state by 6 in only game against an OVC team.
-- Wyoming lost five of last six games; they lost top scorer Nance with 8 games left, struggled after that. Texas A&M lost four of last five games, with last three losses by 5 or less points, or in OT.
-- UTEP lost C-USA tourney at home; they've won 18 of last 23 games. Fresno won nine of last 12 games, but Guerrero is just 4 of his last 33 behind arc. UTEP beat Colorado State by 8, only game vs MW team.
-- Radford is 21-12 this year after being 24-49 previous three years, so they're excited to be improved, winning seven of last 10 games. Oregon State starts three seniors, but lost seven of last ten games anyway.
-- Yale lost four of last five games after being tied atop Ivy; they don't start any seniors, are building to next year. Quinnipiac went 15-7 in its first MAAC season, but lost three of last four games, losing by 19 in a conference tournament loss. Bobcats are very good rebounding team.

-- Towson State is 23-10 after being 1-31 two years ago; they're 7-1 in last eight games, winning last four roiad games. SC-Upstate is 19-14, but 0-3 in OT games, losing twice in OT to conference champ Mercer.
-- Ohio U won four of last five games but lost by 6 to Akron in tourney; Bobcats start three seniors. Cleveland State won 10 of last 12 games but lost to Wright State by 5 in tourney- they don't start any seniors.
-- Fort Wayne lost Summit final to North Dakota State; Mastadons lost by 7 at Miami, beat Bowling Green by 5 in only games vs MAC foes. Akron won four of last five games, but blew 17-point halftime lead and lost in OT to Western Michigan in MAC semis.
-- Murray State is 18-11 despite having to play freshman PG, losing its last two games by 3 points each; Racers beat Evansville by hoop in only game vs MVC opponent. Missouri State is 4-5 in its last nine games.

-- North Dakota won six of last eight games but lost Big Sky final four nights ago in Utah; UND split its two games with Summit League clubs. Omaha lost five of its last six games, after being 15-9 at one point.
-- Northern Colorado lost five of last seven games- they start 3 seniors, but lost last two home games. Corpus Christi won seven of last eight games, but got upset in first round of Southland tourney.
-- Pacific lost five of last six games, went 6-13 in its first year in WCC; Tigers start four seniors, so this was disappointing year. Grand Canyon is coached by Dan Majerle; hey're 0-2 vs WCC teams this year, losing by 3-11 points.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Mighty Quinn

Mighty missed with St. John’s (-15 1/2) on Tuesday and likes Louisiana Tech on Wednesday.

The deficit is 150 sirignanos.