3-22-14

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Goodfella
3* ND St

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Dr. Bob opinions … He also has 3 best bets.
Harvard (+7 ½) over Michigan State
05:40 PM Pacific Rotation: 529
Michigan State is certainly better now that they’re healthy, as my rating on the Spartans with all their starters playing is 1 ½ points higher than their overall season rating. Even with that being the case my current ratings favor Michigan State by 6 ½ points (and 139 total points), so the line has certainly been adjusted. Harvard is a solid team and shoots the ball well from 3-point range (38.8%), which is necessary to beat a Michigan State team that defends the paint very well (43.7% allowed on 2-point shots). The Spartans aren’t particularly good defending the 3-point arc (33.4% allowed is better than average but ranks 120th in the nation) so Harvard should have some open looks and the Crimson will keep this game competitive if they can knock down a good percentage of their 3-pointers. The real reason for liking Harvard is a 6-26-2 ATS letdown 2nd round NCAA situation (I still refer to this round as the 2nd round) that applies to Michigan State and that angle is just 1-13 ATS when applying to favorites of 6 points or more. I’ll consider Harvard a Strong Opinion at +7 points or more and a lean at less than +7.
Villanova (-3 ½) over Connecticut
06:40 PM Pacific Rotation: 520
Connecticut needs to this their 3-point shots to stay close in this game and Villanova’s mediocre 3-point defense will give them a chance. However, the strength of the Connecticut team is their 2-point defense, which ranks 9th in the nation at 41.9%, and that strength isn’t going to have its normal impact against a Villanova team that is 8th in the nation in the number of 3 point shots taken as a percentage of overall shots. The Wildcats are also very efficient in their 2-point shots (54.2% ranks 10th in the nation), so they should be able to score near the basket at a decent rate. Overall the matchup favors Villanova a bit and my ratings favor the Wildcats by 5 points (with a total of 132 points). I’ll lean with Villanova at -4 or less and I’d consider the Wildcats a Strong Opinion at -3 or less.
Michigan (-4 ½) vs. Texas
02:15 PM Pacific Rotation: 528
I don’t see much of an edge here, as my ratings favor Michigan by 4 points. Texas should have relative success offensively, as 74% of the Longhorns’ shots are 2-point attempts (67% is average) and Michigan is bad in 2-point defense (50.4% ranks 237th in the nation) while defending the 3-point arc well (31.2%), which doesn’t do them as much good against a team like Texas. Michigan’s offense should also be relatively better, as the Wolverines take a lot of 3 point shots (40% of their FG attempts) and Texas is mediocre defending the 3-point line while being very good in 2-point defense. My math projects 140 ½ total points but the matchup adds 3 points to that total, so I’ll lean over 142 points or less and I have no opinion on the side.
San Diego State (-4) vs North Dakota State
03:10 PM Pacific Rotation: 532
My ratings favor San Diego State by 4.2 points (with a total of 127 points), which doesn’t offer much line value, and North Dakota State matches up pretty well with the Aztecs. San Diego State is mostly an interior team offensively, as 75% of their shots are 2-point attempts (67% is average), and that works well for an NDSU defense that is horrible defending the 3-point line (37.7% allowed) but pretty good defending inside the arc (46.1% ranks 85th in the nation). So, the Aztecs aren’t likely to take full advantage of the defensive weakness of the Bison. I think 3 ½ points is a good line and I have no opinion on this game.

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Maddux

Ohio

8-14-1 since Wed

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Vegas Sports Informer
(5*) take Miami Heat -5.5

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Sheeps moves
#522 Under 58 Pit-Fla (1st half) $1000 text move
Play was posted at 12:31 Eastern. Game started 12:15
Tweet went out at 12:30

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Ray Falco


Texas
Uconn

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LT LOCK

UConn +3.5
Wisconsin -5.5
Texas +.5
Harvard +7

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Paul Leiner


2000* CBB Louisville -9


100* NBA Over 178.5 Pacers/Grizzlies


100* CBB Over 125.5 No Dakota/San Diego St


100* CBB Oregon +5


50* CBB Michigan -5

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XpertPicks
SATURDAY


TOP HOOPS PLAYS OF THE DAY


Play North Dakota State +3 over San Diego State (NCAA)
6:00 PM EST


North Dakota State has covered the spread in 24 of the last 35 games coming off a game as an underdog and they have also covered the spread in 32 of the last 45 non-conference games. North Dakota State has won 10 consecutive games coming off two games when forcing eleven or less turnovers and they have won 25 of the last 30 games when playing their 2nd game in three days.

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Joe Gavazzi | CBB Sides - - 3% Villanova


Pick 520 Villanova -3.5 (-110) 5dimes vs 519 UConn


Analysis: UConn vs. Villanova (-3-) 9:40 ET TBS Buffalo, NY 3* Villanova (-3-) With tough losses yesterday within (3) points, we come right back today. My Top (3) Saturday winners in Saturday Night Action! UConn was fortunate to get their Round 1 victory (89-81) in OT against St. Joes. They allowed the offensively potent Hawks to shoot 52% from the field. Credit the Huskies with knocking down 11/24 from the arc and a 13/9 Assist/TO ratio. But, the deciding factor came when Kanacevic fouled out in OT and UConn went on to convert 15 consecutive foul shots. That begs for reversal against a Villanova team, who cruised to a 20 point win against Wisc.-Mil with a big 2nd half. The Wildcats did so, despite just knocking down 4/23 from the arc. Their underrated defense and rebounding were the difference with a +9 margin on the boards and holding the Panthers to 39% from the field. Balanced scoring saw 5 Wildcats score in double figures. In a reprise of many classic Big East wars, must favor Villanova to use that underrated defense and rebounding, and better balanced scoring, along with the experience veteran coaching experience of Wright vs. Ollie to garner this victory.

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Pick Addict




2* CBB [520] Villanova -3.5
2* CBB [528] Michigan -4.5
2* CBB [530] Michigan State -8

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Derek Hayes
2 N Dak St +3.5

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Fat Jack

520 VILLANOVA -4

#524 l'ville UNDER 133

#526 wisc OVER 144.5

#531 NORTH DAKOTA ST +3

#550 SAM HOUSTON ST +1.5

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Millionaires club
large
san diego state

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