3-26-14

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StatFox Super Situations

PHOENIX at WASHINGTON
Play Against - Home teams (WASHINGTON) after 1 or more consecutive unders, poor defensive team (98-102 PPG) against a horrible defensive team (>=102 PPG) after 42+ games 70-33 over the last 5 seasons. ( 68.0% | 33.7 units ) 20-11 this year. ( 64.5% | 7.9 units )

DENVER at SAN ANTONIO
Play Against - Road teams vs. the money line (DENVER) after allowing 60 points or more in the first half last game against opponent after scoring 105 points or more 146-55 over the last 5 seasons. ( 72.6% | 57.3 units ) 31-16 this year. ( 66.0% | 9.3 units )

MEMPHIS at UTAH
Play Over - All teams where the first half total is between 90.5 and 95.5 points double revenge - 2 straight losses vs. opponent, a bad team (25% to 40%) playing a team with a winning record 89-45 over the last 5 seasons. ( 66.4% | 39.5 units ) 0-1 this year. ( 0.0% | -1.1 units )

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NCAA Basketball Picks

Louisiana Tech at Florida State

The Bulldogs (29-7) head to Florida State tonight to take on a Seminoles team that is 1-9 ATS in its last 10 games against teams with a winning percentage above .600. Louisiana Tech is the pick (+3) according to Dunkel, which has the Bulldogs favored by 2 1/2. Dunkel Pick: Louisiana Tech (+3). Here are all of today's games.

WEDNESDAY, MARCH 26 Time Posted: 6:30 a.m. EST

Game 771-772: Illinois State at Siena (7:00 p.m. EST) Dunkel Ratings: Illinois State 55.967; Siena 61.101 Dunkel Line: Siena by 5; 136 Vegas Line: Siena by 2 1/2; 134 1/2 Dunkel Pick: Siena (-2 1/2); Over

Game 773-774: Old Dominion at Fresno State (10:00 p.m. EST) Dunkel Ratings: Old Dominion 57.085; Fresno State 61.872 Dunkel Line: Fresno State by 5; 137 Vegas Line: Fresno State by 7; 133 1/2 Dunkel Pick: Old Dominion (+7); Over

Game 775-776: Yale at Columbia (7:00 p.m. EST) Dunkel Ratings: Yale 49.094; Columbia 55.496 Dunkel Line: Columbia by 6 1/2; 120 Vegas Line: Columbia by 4 1/2; 126 1/2 Dunkel Pick: Columbia (-4 1/2); Under

Game 777-778: VMI at Ohio (7:00 p.m. EST) Dunkel Ratings: VMI 55.229; Ohio 56.132 Dunkel Line: Ohio by 1; 168 Vegas Line: Ohio by 8; 162 1/2 Dunkel Pick: VMI (+8); Over

Game 779-780: San Diego at Pacific (10:00 p.m. EST) Dunkel Ratings: San Diego 54.677; Pacific 60.257 Dunkel Line: Pacific by 5 1/2; 136 Vegas Line: Pacific by 3 1/2; 139 1/2 Dunkel Pick: Pacific (-3 1/2); Under

Game 783-784: Louisiana Tech at Florida State (7:00 p.m. EST) Dunkel Ratings: Louisiana Tech 66.146; Florida State 63.668 Dunkel Line: Louisiana Tech by 2 1/2; 150 Vegas Line: Florida State by 3; 147 1/2 Dunkel Pick: Louisiana Tech (+3); Over

Game 785-786: California at SMU (9:00 p.m. EST) Dunkel Ratings: California 64.227; SMU 66.943 Dunkel Line: SMU by 2 1/2; 141 Vegas Line: SMU by 8 1/2; 136 1/2 Dunkel Pick: California (+8 1/2); Over

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Today's NHL Picks

Anaheim at Calgary

The Ducks head to Calgary tonight to face a Flames team that is 10-3 in its last 13 home games. Calgary is the pick (+135) according to Dunkel, which has the Flames favored by 1. Dunkel Pick: Calgary (+135). Here are all of today's picks.

WEDNESDAY, MARCH 26 Time Posted: 6:30 a.m. EST

Game 1-2: Vancouver at Minnesota (7:30 p.m. EST) Dunkel Ratings: Vancouver 10.014; Minnesota 12.385 Dunkel Line & Total: Minnesota by 2 1/2; 6 Vegas Line & Total: Minnesota (-155); 5 Dunkel Pick: Minnesota (-155); Over

Game 3-4: Philadelphia at NY Rangers (8:00 p.m. EST) Dunkel Ratings: Philadelphia 12.501; NY Rangers 11.285 Dunkel Line & Total: Philadelphia by 1; 4 Vegas Line & Total: NY Rangers (-150); 5 Dunkel Pick: Philadelphia (+130); Under

Game 5-6: Anaheim at Calgary (10:00 p.m. EST) Dunkel Ratings: Anaheim 11.272; Calgary 12.304 Dunkel Line & Total: Calgary by 1; 6 1/2 Vegas Line & Total: Anaheim (-155); 5 1/2 Dunkel Pick: Calgary (+135); Over

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StatFox Super Situations


OLD DOMINION at FRESNO ST
Play On - Road teams as an underdog or pick (OLD DOMINION) a poor offensive team (63-67 PPG) against an average defensive team (67-74 PPG), after a blowout win by 20 points or more 78-39 since 1997. ( 66.7% | 35.1 units ) 4-2 this year. ( 66.7% | 1.8 units )


VMI at OHIO U
Play Against - Any team (VMI) off an upset win by 10 points or more as an underdog against opponent off 2 or more consecutive home wins 256-167 since 1997. ( 60.5% | 82.5 units ) 16-12 this year. ( 57.1% | -0.1 units )


SAN DIEGO at PACIFIC
Play Under - All teams where the first half total is 60.5 to 65.5 poor defensive team - shooting pct defense of >=45% on the season against opponent after a game where a team made 55% of their shots or better 89-45 over the last 5 seasons. ( 66.4% | 39.5 units ) 25-15 this year. ( 62.5% | 8.5 units )

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NIT Quarterfinals Betting Cheat Sheet


Louisiana Tech Bulldogs at Florida State Seminoles (-2.5, 147.5)

The Bulldogs forced 14 turnovers - 13 in the first half - and made seven of their first eight long-range shots in Saturday's win over Georgia. Alex Hamilton has led third-seeded Louisiana Tech with 32 points through the first two rounds of the NIT, while Chris Anderson (31) and Kenyon McNeail (29) aren't far behind. McNeail has been on fire from 3-point range, converting 16-of-33 over his last five games. On the defensive end of the court, Michale Kyser has notched 10 blocks in the first two games of the NIT and three different Bulldogs, including McNeail and Hamilton, recorded three steals against Georgia.

Florida State has hardly been an offensive juggernaut this season, but the Seminoles posted their highest point total of the year their last time out and look to follow up on that effort Wednesday when they host Louisiana Tech in the NIT quarterfinals.The top-seeded Seminoles are just 200th in the nation in scoring (70.4 points), and their lack of consistency has been evident thus far in the NIT. Prior to their offensive explosion against Georgetown, they barely snuck past Florida Gulf Coast, 58-53, as they shot just 42.2 percent and turned the ball over 16 times in that one.

TRENDS:

* Bulldogs are 6-2 ATS in their last eight games overall.
* Seminoles are 1-9 ATS in their last 10 games vs. a team with a winning % above .600.
* Over is 5-1 in Seminoles last six home games.


California Golden Bears at Southern Methodist Mustangs (-8.5, 136.5)

The Golden Bears finished third in the Pac-12 but were denied an NCAA tournament berth after losing to Colorado in the conference tournament quarterfinals. The Golden Bears have used a smaller lineup with Solomon out, and freshman guard Jabari Bird has responded by averaging 15 points over the last two games. Forward David Kravish had 13 points and eight rebounds in Monday’s 75-64 win over Arkansas, but he’ll face a tougher test against the Mustangs, especially if Solomon is unable to return.

SMU recorded two wins over Connecticut during the regular season, but a loss to Houston in the American Athletic Conference quarterfinals sealed the Mustangs’ fate. They have the fourth-most wins in program history and are 17-1 at home, including 11-1 at Moody Coliseum, site of Wednesday’s game. Five players scored in double figures in Monday’s 80-67 win over LSU, with guards Nick Russell and Nic Moore combining for 32 points.

TRENDS:

* Golden Bears are 1-5 ATS in their last six road games.
* Mustangs are 10-3 ATS in their last 13 home games.
* Under is 5-1 in Golden Bears last six overall.

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Dominic Brando's Inner Circle
NHL Anaheim Mighty Ducks -140

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Joe Gavazzi Wednesday


NBA


NBA ROAD WARRIOR PLAY


Phoenix Suns (-1-) at Washington Wizards 7:05 ET


4% Phoenix (-1-)


Washington has established their place in the Eastern playoff queue with a 36-34 SU record. In a microcosm of East vs. West, that record would leave them 6 games shy of the playoffs in the West. The Wizards have played far better on the road this season. In fact, recently at home, the Wiz are 10-15 SU, 8-16 ATS. Though all winning NBA teams following a defeat are 205-144 ATS (the Wiz lost 105-102 at Denver on Sunday), Washington is only 18-14 ATS to redeem themselves. Phoenix is your SS in this game with the motivation of trailing Dallas by ½ game for the final playoff spot in the West. Phoenix has gotten serious with efforts resulting in recent records of 4 consecutive wins and 6 victories in their most recent 7 games. With a road record of 24-10 ATS, we will take this ROAD WARRIOR to the bank. By the way, the 42-29 SU Phoenix record would be good for 3rd place in the East.






SUPER SURGER VS. TOWEL TOSSER


Toronto Raptors (-3) at Boston Celtics 7:35 ET


4% Toronto (-3)


The Celtics are going nowhere with a 23-47 SU record, the5th worse in the NBA. There are no playoff hopes. The Celtics enter today on a slide of 11-29 SU. They are just 9-15 ATS recently at home and just 8-12 ATS as home dog. Toronto let us down last night failing to get over the hump in a 102-100 loss at Cleveland. But, the Raptors have been most resilient this season at 20-10/loss. It has been 50 games since the Raptors traded Rudy Gay to Sacramento. In that time, Toronto has gone 32-18 SU and 34-16 ATS. With a year-to-date record of 23-12 ATS away, they can be trusted in this SS vs. TT situation.






NY Knicks at Sacramento Kings (-1) 10:05 ET


3% NY Knicks (+1)


Sleep Train Arena has hardly been a haven again this season for a 25-45 SU Sacramento team, who is just 15-20 SU at home. That has translated into a record of 13-18 ATS when not getting more than 6 points on this court. After winning 8 consecutive games, coinciding with the rumor that Phil Jackson would become head honcho, the Knicks have now dropped 2 straight, including the debacle in LA last night. In that 127-96 defeat, the Knicks allowed the Lakers to score 51 points in the 3rd quarter. That defeat has dropped them 3 games behind Atlanta for the final playoff spot in the East. Yet, in the inevitable ebb and flow of the NBA and under the watchful eye of Jackson, it is most likely that the NYers rebound for victory against the Kings team, who has long ago tossed the towel.






CBKB


CIT TOURNEY






PRINCE OF THE IVIES CIT GOY


Yale at Columbia (-5) 7:00 ET


4% Yale (+5)


This provides an opportunity for at least one last winner this season from the Prince of the Ivies, who has again obliterated the linemaker with his selections in the Ancient 8. These two Brain Chain rivals split a pair of home court decisions this year, including a most recent Columbia victory at Levien (62-46) on February 23rd. Tonight, however, key Columbia cog, Grant Mullins, still suffering from concussion symptoms and may not make post. That leaves the scoring load for the Lions to Rosenberg and Lo. In that previous meeting, Yale was missing one of their best players, Javi Duren. Now back in the lineup and playing outstanding ball in this event, look for Duren to team with Justin Sears to be the two best players on the court, in leading the Eli to a victory which will seem like an upset to only those who have not read this analysis.






CIT SHOCKER OF THE YEAR


VMI at Ohio (-8) 7:00 ET


3%VMI (+8)


Ohio has recorded a pair of 2 point victories in this event against Horizon teams, Cleveland St. (64-62) and Wright St. (56-54). Now, the Bobcats are asked to change gears to a much faster pace against the highest scoring team in the nation. VMI scores 88 PPG. In fact, playing at their preferred up-tempo, the Keydets have scored 100+ points in defeating like-minded offensive foes, Canisius and IPFW. As a result, not convinced Ohio can make an adjustment from the half-court ways of the Midwestern opponents they have faced since early January to make the successful transition against this up-tempo foe.






NIT TOURNEY


LA Tech at Florida St. (-3-) 7:00 ET ESPN2


3% LA Tech (+3-)


Could the return of Ian Miller to the Florida St. lineup really have meant that much? After averaging 59 PPG in their previous 4 outings, the Sems exploded for a 101-90 victory against a Georgetown team, who played an unusually poor defensive game. Now, the Sems are 3-8 ATS at the Donald Tucker Center in 2014. Do not believe they run up that kind of score against a LA Tech team, who spent a large part of the season as a Defensive Dandy in our rankings. The Bulldogs were the best team in CUSA this year, fending off a group of 4 other contenders for the regular season crown. A loss in an 11 am ET starting time finale to Tulsa, relegated them to this event. It is in this NIT, that they have outlasted Iona (89-88) before winning at Georgia (79-71). Now, they bring an underrated defense allowing 65/41/30 to Tallahassee. This Bulldog team has a +3.2 rebound margin, forces 16.5 TOs per game (Florida St. coughs it up 14 times per game), and a 15.9/11.6 Assist/TO ratio. This is complimented by an offense that scores 81 PPG. Though they have played significantly weaker competition than Florida St. has faced, this is a team who returns 4 starters from last year’s 27-7 SU team and has gone 56-14 SU in the last two seasons under 3rd year HC White. With road or neutral victories already this season at Oklahoma vs. S. Miss and at Georgia, this team has proven they can win tough at venues.

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RIVER CITY SHARPS


Another ticket for the NIT Final Four gets punched tonight in Tallahassee as La Tech brings their 29-7 record to town to take on the Seminoles from Florida State. Last night we cashed both of our NIT plays and we hope to get another one right here. Tech defeated Iona and Georgia to get to this game, while the Seminoles beat Fla Gulf Coast and Georgetown to get here. Tech is the much better offensive team and we think they have the bodies down low to compete with the Florida State big guys. One of the constants during Leonard Hamilton’s time at Fla State has been their ability to defend and this year is no different as the Seminoles have only given up 66.2 ppg overall and even less than that at home. Tech proved to be a very good road team this season, going 15-6 overall and 11-8 against the number. With all of that said, we always say the numbers don’t mean as much as the situation and the motivation. Our “eye test” here tells us that Tech is the better overall basketball team and we think they are going to come in here and knock off the Seminoles. We will gladly take the 3 points in what looks to be a really tight affair. The Sharps say…


3 UNITS – LOUISIANA TECH (+3)

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Power Play Wins


POD


NCAAB: Siena -2.5

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Frank Patron

Must Win 50,000 Unit Move

San Diego Toreros +4 over Pacific

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StraightUPWinners Sharp - Xavier Singleton
Sports Picks, March 26, 2014

Game of the Day
Cal vs SMU
5units Cal +8 @ 5dimes

SMU is the best team not in the tournament, but that doesn't mean they are a dominate team. What SMU does is shoot well. They are one of the best shooting and 3 point shooting teams in the nation, however, they don't rebound well, they turn the ball over, they have flaws. There are legitimate issues with this team. SMU didn't win by 13 points in their last game but they shot 65% from 3 and 58% from the field. This isn't happening tonight, Cal only allows .415 of FG to be made. Cal has tremendous depth at guard which will give them lots of bodies to push up against SMU shooters. 8 is just a ridiculous number, and I'm betting it will be much closer than that.

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Sweet Jones 55

Bobcats 1st qtr

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Bruce Marshall

Nuggets +13

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Sheep
Over 69 1/2 fsu-la tech (1st half) $800
Over 148 fsu-la tach $1000
Over 77 1/2 vmi-ohio (1st half) $1000
Over 165 vmi-ohio $800

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Advanced sports investment


ncaa basketball
jimmy (21-24-2 -3.40)
1x- smu -8 california (9pm)


jeff (18-12-2 +5.90)
1x- illnois st +2.5 siena (7pm)


marc (15-17 -1.70)
1x- pacific/san diesgo – over 139.5 (10pm)


nhl releases
jimmy (10-7 +.55)
passing


marc (11-9-1 +.56)
1x- philadelphia/ny rangers - over 5 -135 (8pm)


nba releases
jeff (8-7 +.30)
no play today


jimmy (2-1 +.90)
1x- toronto -2.5 boston (730pm)


marc (10-12-1 -3.20)
1x- phoenix/washington – under 210 (7pm)


baseball
jeff (0-0 0.00)
plays return end of march


jimmy (1-0 +1.00)
plays return end of march


marc (0-1 -1.15)
plays return end of march


soccer
perry (20-17-2 -.33)
england – premier league
1x- sunderland afc/liverpool fc – over 3.5 -107 (4pm)
1x- hull city/west ham united – under 2.5 -127 (345pm)


germany – bundesliga
1x- hannover 96/tsg 1899 hoffenheim – over 3.5 +115 (3pm)


italy – serie a
1x- fc parma/juventus turin – over 2.5 -130 (245pm)


tennis
pj (22-27 -15.36)
wta – sony open tennis @ miami, fl matchups must be fully completed for action
1x- d cibulkova -130 a radwanska (1pm)


atp – sony open tennis @ miami, fl matchups must be fully completed for action
passing