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double-dime bet – 706 ORL 5.0 (-110) vs 705 TOR
Analysis: Orlando is terrible, right? Yes, on the road that certainly is true. The Magic are 4-34 away from Amway Center. But at home they are a far more respectable 17-18. They have covered 12 of their last 15 at Amway Center. This includes defeating Portland and Charlotte in their past two home contests. The Magic are a very live ‘dog today against the Raptors, who are in a dangerous letdown spot after clinching a playoff spot for the first time in six years. The Raptors are emotionally and physically spent after narrowly defeating Boston in a home-and-road two game set. Toronto nipped the Celtics, 105-103, two days ago on a late layup by Amir Johnson. The Magic play more relaxed at home. Nikola Vucevic and Arron Afflalo are playing well. The Magic have suffered when those two haven’t been in the lineup. But Vucevic and Afflalo are healthy now as is point guard Jameer Nelson. The presence of these three key cogs makes Orlando respectable at home. Toronto isn’t strong enough to cover this number against Orlando on the road if it doesn’t play its “A” game, which I don’t see happening.
NCAA: 6* Michigan State -5.5 vs. Connecticut 2:15PM EST
The NCAA Elite 8 Round continues on Sunday afternoon with the first tip set for 2:15PM Eastern Time in Madison Square Garden with the Spartans and Huskies facing off. The Spartans put on a defensive clinic their last time out defeating the Number One seed Virginia Cavaliers 61 to 59 to punch their ticket to the 8. The Spartan defense held the Cavaliers to 35 percent shooting in the victory. The Cavaliers came into the game against Sparty leading the nation in points allowed per game with an average of 55.5 points per game. Virginia did a decent job against the Spartans offense but they just couldn't score against Sparty. Connecticut is coming off a game in which both teams made a lot of baskets as they defeated the Number Three seed Iowa State Cyclones 81 to 76. The bad news for the Huskies here, Michigan State plays much better defense than Iowa State and those open looks they had and converted against the Cyclones will not be available to their shooters today. The BPPR Index actually has the Spartans with a double-digit advantage this is not common in these types of match ups but Michigan State is healthy and their adjusted numbers as a group are much better than those of the Huskies. The Spartans are playing much better overall as a group and this can been seen especially on the defensive end of the floor where their last four opponents have been held to an average of 36.1 percent shooting from the field. The BTPR Index projects a point advantage of 11.4 points. The BBMM projects a point differential of 6.98 points with a current line range of 5.5 to 6.5. The SIM Matrix projects a 74.40 percent against the spread advantage for the Spartans on Sunday. The Pace-Tempo Matrix has the Spartans with a Transitional number of 43.88 with a conversion rate range of 45 to 49.5. Michigan State has been money during this time of the season posting a mark of 66-48 ats during the month of March. When Michigan State has been installed as chalk it has not been an issue for Sparty with a record of 45-35 ats as a favorite. One final note Michigan State has a record of 47-34 ats versus teams with a winning record. Michigan State has the advantage across the board against Connecticut on Sunday so we will lay the chalk with Sparty as they advance to the Final Four in Dallas. Lay the chalk
*Sunday* 2 UNIT = Los Angeles Dodgers @ San Diego Padres - UNDER 6.5 RUNS (+103)
Listed Pitchers: Ryu vs Cashner
(Note: I'm risking 2.00 units to win 2.06 units)
The Dodgers opened the season in Australia and picked up 3-1 and 7-5 victories. Hyun-Jin Ryu will actually be making his second start of the season tonight, as he picked up the victory in the Dodgers 7-5 win. Ryu pitched brilliantly in that game going 5 innings allowing just 2 hits with 5 strikeouts and 1 walk. In 2013 he was 14-8 with a 3.00 ERA, .252 OBA (opponents batting average), and 1.20 WHIP. He pitched once vs the Padres last season going 6.1 innings allowing just 1 earned run. Andrew Cashner will get the ball for the Padres season and home opener after going 10-9 with a 3.09 ERA last season. He pitched well all season with a low .233 OBA and 1.13 WHIP, but pitched even better down the stretch of the season with a 2.25 ERA in August and 0.76 ERA in September. He had 6 appearances and 3 starts vs the Dodgers last year and had a superb 1.35 ERA vs a good hitting L.A. team and held them to a .235 team batting average. Cashner also pitched much better at home last year where he was 5-4 with a low 1.95 ERA in pitcher friendly PETCO Park. The UNDER is 5-0 in these two teams last 5 meetings overall and also 5-0 in their last 5 meetings in San Diego. I'll take the UNDER at plus money on opening night.
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