3-31-14

[Can'tPickAWinner]

[Can'tPickAWinner]

DUNKEL

MONDAY, MARCH 31 Time Posted: 8:00 a.m. EST (3/30)

Game 901-902: Chicago Cubs at Pittsburgh (1:05 p.m. EST) Dunkel Ratings: Cubs (Samardzija) 16.332; Pittsburgh (Liriano) 15.404 Dunkel Line: Chicago Cubs by 1; 8 Vegas Line: Pittsburgh (-170); 7 Dunkel Pick: Chicago Cubs (+150); Over

Game 903-904: Washington at NY Mets (1:10 p.m. EST) Dunkel Ratings: Washington (Strasburg) 15.358; NY Mets (Gee) 13.402 Dunkel Line: Washington by 2; 5 1/2 Vegas Line: Washington (-170); 6 1/2 Dunkel Pick: Washington (-170); Under

Game 905-906: Atlanta at Milwaukee (2:10 p.m. EST) Dunkel Ratings: Atlanta (Teheran) 13.972; Milwaukee (Gallardo) 15.044 Dunkel Line: Milwaukee by 1; 8 Vegas Line: Atlanta (-115); 7 1/2 Dunkel Pick: Milwaukee (-105); Over

Game 907-908: St. Louis at Cincinnati (4:10 p.m. EST) Dunkel Ratings: St. Louis (Wainwright) 16.930; Cincinnati (Cueto) 14.265 Dunkel Line: St. Louis by 2 1/2; 6 Vegas Line: St. Louis (-115); 7 Dunkel Pick: St. Louis (-115); Under

Game 909-910: Colorado at Miami (7:05 p.m. EST) Dunkel Ratings: Colorado (De La Rosa) 14.296; Miami (Fernandez) 13.374 Dunkel Line: Colorado by 1; 6 Vegas Line: Miami (-155); 6 1/2 Dunkel Pick: Colorado (+135); Under

Game 911-912: San Francisco at Arizona (9:40 p.m. EST) Dunkel Ratings: San Francisco (Bumgarner) 15.638; Arizona (McCarthy) 13.956 Dunkel Line: San Francisco by 1 1/2; 9 Vegas Line: San Francisco (-140); 8 Dunkel Pick: San Francisco (-140); Over

Game 913-914: Kansas City at Detroit (1:08 p.m. EST) Dunkel Ratings: Kansas City (Shields) 15.732; Detroit (Verlander) 14.822 Dunkel Line: Kansas City by 1; 6 Vegas Line: Detroit (-160); 7 Dunkel Pick: Kansas City (+140); Under

Game 915-916: Boston at Baltimore (3:05 p.m. EST) Dunkel Ratings: Boston (Lester) 17.695; Baltimore (Tillman) 14.850 Dunkel Line: Boston by 3; 9 Vegas Line: Boston (-120); 8 1/2 Dunkel Pick: Boston (-120); Over

Game 917-918: Toronto at Tampa Bay (4:10 p.m. EST) Dunkel Ratings: Toronto (Dickey) 14.665; Tampa Bay (Price) 17.036 Dunkel Line: Tampa Bay by 2 1/2; 6 Vegas Line: Tampa Bay (-165); 7 Dunkel Pick: Tampa Bay (-165); Under

Game 919-920: Minnesota at Chicago White Sox (4:10 p.m. EST) Dunkel Ratings: Minnesota (Nolasco) 14.329; White Sox (Sale) 13.831 Dunkel Line: Minnesota by 1/2; 8 Vegas Line: Chicago White Sox (-165); 7 Dunkel Pick: Minnesota (+145); Over

Game 921-922: Cleveland at Oakland (10:05 p.m. EST) Dunkel Ratings: Cleveland (Masterson) 16.716; Oakland (Gray) 15.601 Dunkel Line: Cleveland by 1; 7 1/2 Vegas Line: Oakland (-135); 7 Dunkel Pick: Cleveland (+115); Over

Game 923-924: Seattle at LA Angels (10:05 p.m. EST) Dunkel Ratings: Seattle (Hernandez) 14.684; LA Angels (Weaver) 16.123 Dunkel Line: LA Angels by 1 1/2; 5 1/2 Vegas Line: LA Angels (-135); 6 1/2 Dunkel Pick: LA Angels (-135); Under

Game 925-926: Philadelphia at Texas (2:05 p.m. EST) Dunkel Ratings: Philadelphia (Lee) 15.442; Texas (Scheppers) 14.512 Dunkel Line: Philadelphia by 1; 9 Vegas Line: Philadelphia (-115); 8 Dunkel Pick: Philadelphia (-115); Over

[Can'tPickAWinner]

GOODFELLA


2014 MLB Team Win Totals (19-9 L/4 Years)


2* TORONTO BLUE JAYS – UNDER 80.5


2* CLEVELAND INDIANS – OVER 80.5


2* SAN FRANCISCO GIANTS – UNDER 87


2* CINCINNATI REDS – UNDER 84.5


2* ST. LOUIS CARDINALS – OVER 91.5


2* WASHINGTON NATIONALS – OVER 89.5

[Can'tPickAWinner]

BRYAN LEONARD

2014 National League Season Wins

3 Units – Cubs – Over 70 +100

2 Units – Rockies – Over 76 1/2 +100

2 Units – Mets – Over 74 -120

3 Units – Phillies – Under 76 -120

2 Units – Pirates – Under 84 -110

2 Units – Giants – Under 86 1/2 -110

2 Units – Nationals – Over 90 -110

While I played each of these at better numbers they all have value in my opinion at the numbers stated. If you have to lay more than 15 cents on any of these numbers lower the unit rating by one.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Ben Burns

MLB
Giants -130

[Can'tPickAWinner]

spartan | MLB Money Line Mon, 03/31/14 - 1:05 PM
dime bet ml 913 KAN (+150) 5dimes vs 914 DET
Analysis: none

[Can'tPickAWinner]

American League East preview: Yanks look build off strong offseason
By STEVE MERRIL

The AL East is always a deep and talented division.

The defending World Series champions are Boston, the free agency champions are New York, and a potential sleeper team is Tampa Bay. The Orioles have recently become a playoff threat and the Blue Jays were actually the favorite to win this division just one year ago.

Baltimore Orioles (2013: 85-77, +37 units, 75-78-9 over/under)

Division odds: 15/1
Season win total: 81.5

Why bet the Orioles: This is a deep lineup if Nick Markakis can stay healthy. Manny Machado, Chris Davis and Adam Jones form a nice 2-3-4 order in the lineup. Defensively they can rely on JJ Hardy and his gold glove and Matt Wieters is the best defensive catcher in baseball. The rotation got a boost when they signed Ubaldo Jimenez. They also have their usual arms in the bullpen which provide for good mix and match situations late in games.

Why not bet the Orioles: Their starting pitching rotation is full of question marks. Miguel Gonzalez and Bud Norris both posted ERAs over 4.00 in the second half of the season, while the fifth starter spot is undecided. While the bullpen has good arms, it doesn't have Jim Johnson - who was traded to Oakland -, so Tommy Hunter may need to step up. The bench is lacking as well with Jemile Weeks and Henry Urrutia the only options to be counted on.

Season win total pick: Under 81.5

Boston Red Sox (2013: 97-65, +1,864 units, 74-84-1 over/under)

Division odds: 7/4
Season win total: 88

Why bet the Red Sox: Last year's defending World Series champions, returns their offensive lineup almost completely intact, with a slight upgrade at catcher with AJ Pierzynski. Jackie Bradley Jr. will be an improvement from last year although he won't be Jacoby Ellsbury. The rotation is good with Jon Lester and Clay Buchholz leading the way. Koji Uehera was a god-send out of the bullpen last season, posting incredible numbers.

Why not bet the Red Sox: A lot broke right for Boston last year. They will miss Ellsbury at the top of the lineup as well and Xander Bogaerts will try to hold down the shortstop position. The back end of the rotation is questionable as Ryan Dempster's departure raises issues. The team caught some breaks last year with their longest losing streak being just three games. A lot of older players on this team might now feel fat and happy after winning a title last season.

Season win total pick: Under 88

New York Yankees (2013: 85-77, +454 units, 67-85-10 over/under)

Division odds: 12/5
Season win total: 87

Why bet the Yankees: As usual, they had a strong off-season with the additions of Carlos Beltran, Jacoby Ellsbury and Brian McCann. They also had addition by subtraction with the suspension of A-Rod. Derek Jeter's pending retirement could be a motivating factor for the Yanks. Kelly Johnson was also a nice addition as he can play several positions. CC Sabathia, Hiroki Kuroda and Masahiro Tanaka will provide a nice 1-2-3 order in the rotation. If Michael Pineda can get healthy, he'll be a productive piece for them as well. David Robertson isn't Mariano Rivera, but he is a solid closer.

Why not bet the Yankees: The rest of the bullpen is suspect outside of Robertson. Ass for the starting rotation, Kuroda slowed down during the end of the season and Sabathia is also coming off a rough season in which he allowed the most earned runs in the league last year. This is an aging team, so injuries and extended stays on the disabled list is always a concern.

Season win total pick: Over 87

Tampa Bay Rays (2013: 92-71, +71 units, 76-78-9 over/under)

Division odds: 7/4
Season win total: 88

Why bet the Rays: The Rays have won 90 or more games in each of the past four seasons and could do so again with magnificent starting pitching. David Price, Alex Cobb, Matt Moore, Chris Archer and Jeremy Hellickson all back for the the deepest rotation in baseball. Evan Longoria is back as well to hold down the hot corner and stabilize the lineup. Wil Myers was the first player to lead AL rookies in RBI with less than 90 games played since the late 1940's.

Why not bet the Rays: The back end of the bullpen is a problem again. They signed Heath Bell and Juan Carlos Oviedo who have closing experience, but aren't the answer at that position. Certain parts of the offensive lineup - which struggled to score at times last season - is weak and so is the bench. This lineup does not steal bases and often has a hard time manufacturing runs.

Season win total pick: Over 88

Toronto Blue Jays (2013: 74-88, -1,080 units, 79-80-3 over/under)

Division odds: 15/1
Season win total: 79.5

Why bet the Jays: Toronto was the favorite to win the East last year and although they underachieved, they still have a solid nucleus of Jose Reyes, Melky Cabrera and Jose Bautista. If Edwin Encarnacion, Brett Lawrie and Adam Lind can live up to their potential, then this offensive lineup will be fierce. Mark Buehrle is the picture of consistency with at least 10 wins and 200 innings for 13 straight seasons. Casey Janssen is an underrated closer and recorded a solid 2.56 ERA and 0.99 WHIP last year.

Why not bet the Jays: Last year did happen and the best team money could buy did not win ballgames. Encarnacion, Lawrie, Lind and Colby Rasmus are all inconsistent. The back-end of the rotation is up in the air with Esmil Rogers and J.A. Happ, the front-runners to nap the last two starting spots. Brandon Morrow has injury issues and he will need to stay healthy in order to solidify the third spot in the pitching rotation.

Season win total pick: Over 79.5

[Can'tPickAWinner]

American League Central preview: Race between Tigers and Royals
By STEVE MERRIL

The American League Central might be a two-team race between Detroit and Kansas City, unless Chicago or Cleveland takes a step up this season. It appears Minnesota is still a year or two away from contention.

Chicago White Sox (63-99, -32.18 units)

Division odds: +800
Season win total: 76

Why bet the White Sox: Chris Sale is becoming an ace in the starting rotation. Chicago also has two other southpaws in the rotation with Jose Quintana and John Danks. The White Sox can really give trouble to teams that struggle against left-handed pitching. Jose Abreu has arrived from Cuba and has the talent to help an offensive lineup that struggled at times last season

Why not bet the White Sox: The bottom of the pitching rotation is a huge question mark. The bullpen is also suspect with Nate Jones at a closer. The offense revolves around Adam Dunn, who struck out 189 times last season. Gordon Beckham is no longer a power hitter and the rest of the lineup is highly unreliable.

Season win total pick: Under 76 wins

Cleveland Indians (92-70, +24.92 units)

Division odds: +650
Season win total: 80.5

Why bet the Indians: Cleveland has a solid 1-2 punch in its starting rotation with Justin Masterson and Danny Salazar. Salazar proved himself worthy enough to pitch in the team's playoff game against the Rays last season. The offensive lineup is solid with Jason Kipnis and Carlos Santana manning the middle.

Why not bet the Indians: The rest of the pitching rotation is mediocre with Corey Kluber, Zach McAllister and Josh Tomlin most likely rounding things out. The bullpen is a mess with John Axford trying to hold down the closer spot. He has struggled the past two seasons and has not pitched well since 2011. The bench is aging and will not help an offensive lineup that failed to score consistently last year.

Season win total pick: Under 80.5 wins

Detroit Tigers (93-69, -11.50 units)

Division odds: -275
Season win total: 90

Why bet the Tigers: Despite trading away Doug Fister, the Tigers still have one of the best pitching rotations in the league. Even when Justin Verlander was not at his best last year, Max Scherzer stepped up and become the team's ace. Anibal Sanchez and Rick Porcello man the third and fourth positions of the rotation with Drew Smyly getting the fifth spot. Miguel Cabrera is back for another year as the two-time defending MVP. Victor Martinez provides protection and should post better numbers than last season.

Why not bet the Tigers: There are still question marks in the bullpen. Joe Nathan is an upgrade at the closer position, but he is now one of the oldest players in the league at 39 years of age. There is a lot of uncertainty and question marks in the middle relief spot. Can Bruce Rondon finally pitch to his potential? Offensively, Ian Kinsler has some big shoes to fill as the Tigers traded away Prince Fielder.

Season win total pick: Over 90 wins

Kansas City Royals (86-76, +6.36 units)

Division odds: +650
Season win total: 82

Why bet the Royals: The rotation has improved with Jason Vargas stepping in. The lefty is on his third team in three years, but he will now have a strong defense behind him. Greg Holland was incredible as the closer last year, giving up just 40 hits in 67 innings pitched. Billy Butler and Alex Gordon now have help in the lineup with Omar Infante batting ahead of them. Infante will get on base, while the two big sluggers bring him in.

Why not bet the Royals: Mike Moustakas has still not lived up to his potential. Alcides Escobar hit only .234 last year, but he will continue to be in the lineup because he is strong defensively. The bottom of the pitching rotation is shaky with Danny Duffy and Wade Davis among those vying for the final spots, although this will be less of a weakness if Yordano Ventura gets the job.

Season win total pick: Over 82 wins

Minnesota Twins (66-96, -7.12 units)

Division odds: +3,000
Season win total: 70.5

Why bet the Twins: It is hard to find reasons to back the Twins. They do still have one of the best hitters in the league with Joe Mauer, plus Josh Willingham will provide good protection in a lineup. They are trying to fill the holes in the pitching rotation with veterans Ricky Nolasco and Phil Hughes who have pitched well in the past. Glen Perkins is an All-Star closer who converted on 90 percent of his save opportunities last year.

Why not bet the Twins: Minnesota's pitching rotation had a horrendous 5.26 ERA last season. Kevin Correia and Scott Diamond were among that group of misfits. Miguel Sano is out for the season with Tommy John surgery. While Perkins is an excellent closer, he might not get many chances with a poor starting rotation and awful middle relief that is likely to blow leads.

Season win total pick: Under 70.5 wins

[Can'tPickAWinner]

American League West preview: Strong pitching paces division
By STEVE MERRIL

The AL West is an arms race involving excellent pitching from the three main contenders: Angels, Rangers and Athletics. Seattle might also get in the mix after their off-season spending spree, while the Astros are destined for last place once again.

Houston Astros (2013: 51-111, -2582 units, 80-76-6 over/under)

Division odds: 75/1
Season win total: 62.5

Why bet the Astros: It is hard to find a reason to back the worst team in baseball, however you will get a nice underdog price with them in most games. Jose Altuve is an up and coming star in this league. They also got solid pitching from Jarred Cosart, Paul Clemens, Brett Oberholtzer and Brad Peacock in the second half of last season as those four pitchers combined for a 2.73 ERA after the All-Star break.

Why not bet the Astros: Their bullpen is a mess. They have Chad Qualls, Matt Albers, Jesse Crain and several other inexperienced youngsters. The three veterans of the group haven't exactly been stellar with their previous teams, so it is doubtful they will fix Houston's problems. The offensive lineup is unproven and may get overwhelmed by the incredibly strong pitching in this division.

Season win total pick: Under 62.5

Los Angeles Angels (2013: 78-84, -2098 units, 88-68-6 over/under)

Division odds: 7/4
Season win total: 87

Why bet the Angels: Mike Trout and Albert Pujols form an incredible duo in the lineup, plus Josh Hamilton is also capable of having a big season after struggling last year. Raul Ibanez and David Freese are solid additions that further strengthen the batting order. Jered Weaver and CJ Wilson are a great 1-2 punch in the pitching rotation, while Ernesto Frieri was a pleasant surprise at closer last season.

Why not bet the Angels: Josh Hamilton might not rebound after struggling last year and despite strength at the top of the rotation, the Angels' starting pitchers have still posted a mediocre 4.12 ERA the past two years and there is question about the back end of the rotation. Raul Ibanez will turn 42 in June, so Father Time might eventually catch up to him. This team also lacks depth on the bench, so injuries could become a factor.

Season win total pick: Under 87

Oakland Athletics (2013: 96-66, +1851 units, 84-74-4 over/under)

Division odds: 8/5
Season win total: 88.5

Why bet the Athletics: Pitching is once again a strength with Sonny Gray and Jarrod Parker leading the way, while AJ Griffin and Dan Straily showed promise last year. Jim Johnson has been a stabilizing force as the closer and the bullpen is extremely deep with Luke Gregorson, Sean Doolittle and Ryan Cook. The offensive lineup had nice balance last year with four different players hitting at least 22 home runs.

Why not bet the Athletics: Oakland's pitching doesn't have a pedigree. Most of the starters have not been in the league long and may find it hard to match previous success once the opposing hitters get a book on them. The bats in the lineup lack consistency and could find trouble scoring runs at times. The bench is thin as pinch hitters batted only .145 last year, which was the worst mark in the American League.

Season win total pick: Under 88.5

Seattle Mariners (2013: 71-91, -1622 units, 82-72-8 over/under)

Division odds: 12/1
Season win total: 81.5

Why bet Seattle: Felix Hernandez is one of the best pitchers in baseball and has posted a 3.06 ERA or better in four of the past five years. Hisashi Iwakuma showed promise and finished the season in excellent form, allowing only three earned runs in his final five starts. Seattle added Robinson Cano, Corey Hart and Logan Morrison to the batting order which should help the team score more runs.

Why not bet Seattle: The rest of the lineup is still weak and Cano might regress after getting his big payday. The Mariners are relying on youth in Dustin Ackley, Brad Miller and Mike Zunino, while injuries have hurt the rotation with Danny Hultzen out for the year and Taijuan Walker already hurting. The bullpen has some hard throwing talent, but it is still unproven. The team needs to find a consistent closer.

Season win total pick: Under 81.5

Texas Rangers (2013: 91-72, -461, 64-90-9 over/under)

Division odds: 9/4
Season win total: 87

Why bet Texas: This team has the best combination of hitting and pitching in the division. The addition of Prince Fielder helps go along with Adrian Beltre in the middle of the lineup. Jurickson Profar will finally get regular playing time which will help him produce consistent results. Yu Darvish was the runner up last year for the Cy Young award and he has a great group of pitchers backing him up. Neftali Feliz is back as a reliever where he belongs, while Joakim Soria, Tanner Scheppers and Neal Cotts are viable arms in the bullpen as well.

Why not bet Texas: The lineup relies heavily on home runs which can lead to scoring slumps at times. Derek Holland has been inconsistent in his career and might regress after a solid season last year and he is also currently on the 60-day disabled list with a knee injury. Matt Harrison is coming off three surgeries, and pitched only two games last year, so his durability is a concern.

Season win total pick: Over 87

[Can'tPickAWinner]

National League East preview: Will the Nats take the next step?
By STEVE MERRIL

The Nationals are the favorite to win the NL East division this year after finishing 10 games behind the Braves last season. Atlanta will once again be a contender, while the Phillies could be a possible dark horse. The Mets and Marlins will battle for the basement.

Atlanta Braves (2013: 96-66, +994 units 73-81-8 over/under)

Division odds: 7/5
Season win total: 87.5

Why bet the Braves: Craig Kimbrel is the best closer in baseball and he is backed by an array of solid arms in the bullpen. The lineup is filled with talent as Justin Upton and Freddie Freeman patrol the middle of the batting order. The bench has solid veterans who will be able to step in as needed. The team signed Ervin Santana in an effort to add depth to the rotation.

Why not bet the Braves: Injuries are killing the rotation. Kris Medlen may be done for the season after needing another Tommy John surgery and Brandon Beachy is banged up as well. Four players in the regular lineup had an on-base percentage below .310 last year, so this offense does struggle to get on base and score at times.

Season win total pick: Under 87.5

Miami Marlins (2013: 62-100, -1397 units, 62-83-17 over/under)

Division odds: 50/1
Season win total: 69.5

Why bet the Marlins: There are not many reasons to back this struggling team, although they do have some young talent that might surprise. Giancarlo Stanton is being more patient at the plate and getting on base more. Jose Fernandez was NL Rookie of the Year, while Nathan Eovaldi has a fastball that is right up there with the best in the league. Steve Cishek converted 29 straight save opportunities at one point last year.

Why not bet the Marlins: This would have been a good team 10 years ago with Rafael Furcal, Casey McGehee, Garrett Jones and Juan Pierre on the roster. The bottom of the pitching rotation is weak, while getting the ball to Cishek will be an issue since the Marlins will be losing most games and they have poor middle relief.

Season win total pick: Under 69.5

New York Mets (2013: 74-88, -388 units, 79-77-6 over/under)

Divsion odds: 25/1
Season win total: 74

Why bet the Mets: David Wright is an excellent hitter and he will now have Curtis Granderson in the lineup with him. Granderson hit 84 home runs in 2011 and 2012 combined, before battling injuries last year. Bartolo Colon becomes the ace of the staff after posting a career best 2.65 ERA with Oakland last year. Zack Wheeler showed promise in his 17 starts as a rookie, while Bobby Parnell had a career best 2.16 ERA last season and should be a solid closer this year.

Why not bet the Mets: Jon Niese is hurt already and he was supposed to be the No. 2 starter in the rotation. The rest of the group is questionable and will Colon be able to hold up? He turns 41 in May. The lineup features a lot of mediocrity with Chris Young being the only other big free agent addition in the lineup besides Granderson. Young is just a .235 career hitter and he batted a career worse .200 last season with Oakland. The bullpen is filled with unproven youth, and other than Parnell, has a lot of uncertainty.

Season win total pick: Under 74

Philadelphia Phillies (2013: 73-89, -2098 units, 83-74-5 over/under)

Divison odds: 15/1
Season win total: 76

Why bet the Phillies: Chase Utley and Ryan Howard are back to patrol the middle of the lineup and they both appear healthy right now. Domonic Brown hit 27 home runs last year, while Marlon Byrd had the fifth best slugging percentage in the National League. Cliff Lee, AJ Burnett and Cole Hamels (when healthy) are a very good Top 3 in the pitching rotation. The back end of the bullpen is stabilized with Jonathan Papelbon.

Why not bet the Phillies: How will this older and aging team hold up in August and September? Utley and Howard are healthy now, but will they make it through the entire season? Howard has struck out in 32 percent of his plate appearances over the past two seasons. Cole Hamels is already injured and he will not be ready for the start of the season. Mike Adams is coming off an injury and the bullpen was weak last year.

Season win total pick: Over 76

Washington Nationals (2013: 86-76, -699 units, 79-76-7 over/under)

Division odds: 5/7
Season win total: 89.5

Why bet the Nationals: The best rotation in the division has gotten even better with the addition of Doug Fister. The Nationals also have a deep offensive lineup anchored by Bryce Harper and Ryan Zimmerman. The bullpen is solid with Rafael Soriano and Tyler Clippard. This team is strong in all aspects of the game.

Why not bet the Nationals: Will Adam LaRoche improve from last year? He struggled against left-handed pitching. Stephen Strasburg has yet to be the workhorse of the pitching rotation, so we'll see if he can handle more innings this year. Clippard appeared in 72 games last season as he was a bit overused backing up Soriano. Matt Williams is a new manager, so it is unknown how the team will respond to his leadership.

Season win total pick: Over 89.5

[Can'tPickAWinner]

National League central preview: Will division produce three playoff teams again?
By STEVE MERRIL

The National League Central division featured three playoff teams that all won 90+ games last season with the Cardinals, Reds and Pirates. Those three clubs will once again battle for the division title, while the Brewers and Cubs try to catch up.

Chicago Cubs (2013: 66-96, -1542 units, 68-86-8 over/under)

Division odds: 70/1
Season win total: 70

Why bet the Cubs: Starlin Castro tops a lineup that has youth and the potential to improve with more at-bats. Rookie Junior Lake hit a solid .284 in 64 games for Chicago last year. Jeff Samardzija and Travis Wood present a strong 1-2 punch in the pitching rotation, while Pedro Strop and Wesley Wright are two young arms in the bullpen with potential.

Why not bet the Cubs: The rest of this team is a mess. They had 26 blown saves last year which was the second most in the National League. In an unsuccessful attempt to address this problem, the Cubs acquired Jose Veras who is now on his 8th different team since 2006. Edwin Jackson finished the year losing seven of his last 10 starts. Jake Arrieta and Chris Rusin are also question marks in the rotation.

Season win total pick: Under 70


Cincinnati Reds (2013: 90-72, -509 units, 76-79-7 over/under)

Division odds: 3/1
Season win total: 84.5

Why bet the Reds: Speedy Billy Hamilton should score a ton of runs at the top of this lineup with Brandon Phillips, Joey Votto and Jay Bruce batting behind him in the heart of the order. The pitching rotation is solid with Johnny Cueto available for the whole season along with Mat Latos and Homer Bailey. Tony Cingrani was great last year and will also be part of this strong rotation. Aroldis Chapman will be throwing heat out of the bullpen.

Why not bet the Reds: Ryan Ludwick missed time last year and is an injury risk along with Cueto. Mat Latos threw a career high 210 innings last year, so we'll see if there are any side effects and fatigue. The bullpen should be stable, although Jonathan Broxton and Sean Marshall did miss time last year.

Season win total pick: Over 84.5


Milwaukee Brewers (2013: 74-88, -723 units, 76-82-4 over/under)

Division odds: 15/1
Season win total: 80

Why bet the Brewers: Ryan Braun is back for a full season and he has looked strong in spring training. Kyle Lohse isn't flashy, but he is a capable leader in the pitching rotation along with Yovani Gallardo. Jim Henderson will be even more of a force in the bullpen this season. He was fantastic in his second season, converting 28-of-32 save opportunities last year with 75 strikeouts in just 60 innings pitched.

Why not bet the Brewers: Gallardo had a velocity drop last year which is concerning since the rest of the pitching rotation is suspect with Wily Peralta, Marco Estrada and Tyler Thornburg. Can Matt Garza pitch well too? Aramis Ramirez is coming off a power outage with just 12 home runs last year. The bench is weak with few backup options if any major injuries occur.

Season win total pick: Under 80


Pittsburgh Pirates (2013: 94-68, +2,342 units, 71-85-6 over/under)

Division odds: 5/1
Season win total: 84.5

Why bet the Pirates: Andrew McCutchen is the reigning National League MVP and one of only two players with 20 plus home runs and 20 plus stolen bases in each of the past three seasons. He also has help in the lineup with Starling Marte and Russell Martin. The pitching rotation is solid with Francisco Liriano and Gerrit Cole leading the way. Jason Grilli had 30 saves last season before getting hurt, while Mark Melancon had a 0.93 ERA at home last year.

Why not bet the Pirates: They went from AJ Burnett to Edinson Volquez. Wandy Rodriguez is coming off an elbow injury and who knows if Gerrit Cole might slip a little after a solid rookie year. Pedro Alvarez led the NL in strikeouts last year and may not be the best protection for McCutchen in the lineup. This offense is inconsistent and struggles to score runs at times.

Season win total pick: Under 84.5


St. Louis Cardinals (2013: 97-65, +1,106 units, 79-75-8 over/under)

Division odds: 4/7
Season win total: 91.5

Why bet the Cardinals: The Cards are arguably the most complete team in the league. They hit .330 with runners in scoring position last year and they have several talented hitters from Matt Holliday and Allen Craig to Matt Adams and Yadier Molina. The pitching rotation has young talent in Shelby Miller and Michael Wacha who follow veteran Adam Wainwright. The strong bullpen is led by Trevor Rosenthal and Jason Motte.

Why not bet the Cardinals: There aren't many negatives on this team. Injuries are usually the biggest concern, but the Cardinals have depth and talent throughout the lineup. Could there be a hangover after falling short last year?

Season win total pick: Over 91.5

[Can'tPickAWinner]

National League West preview: Can Dodgers live up to the hype?
By STEVE MERRIL

The National League West division is led by the Dodgers who have the highest Over/Under win total in the Majors and is the favorite to win the World Series. Their biggest competition within the division will likely come from the Giants and perhaps the Diamondbacks, while the Padres and Rockies will battle for the basement.

Arizona Diamondbacks (2013: 81-81, -495 units, 71-84-7 over/under)

Division odds: 12/1
Season win total: 81.5

Why bet the Diamondbacks: Mark Trumbo should feast on pitching at Chase Field and is a great hitter to put in the middle of the lineup. The pitching rotation has talent with Trevor Cahill and Wade Miley, while the bullpen is solid with Addison Reed at closer and J.J. Putz setting him up. This is a team that only needs six innings from their starters since the bullpen is so strong.

Why not bet the Diamondbacks: Arizona lost Patrick Corbin and they are hoping that Brandon McCarthy recovers from an awful season last year. The batting order features several inconsistent hitters with health issues. The bench is thin and the Diamondbacks lack depth, so injuries might become a factor.

Season win total pick: Under 81.5


Colorado Rockies (2013: 74-88, -1233 units, 76-77-9 over/under)

Division odds: 25/1
Season win total: 76.5

Why bet the Rockies: As usual, Colorado has a lineup that is built for Coor's Field with Michael Cuddyer and Troy Tulowitzki leading the way. Justin Morneau may be able to find his stroke in the rarified air as well. The pitching rotation is solid with Jorge De La Rosa and Jhoulys Chacin coming off strong seasons, while the bullpen was led by Rex Brothers who had 32 scoreless outings in a row last year.

Why not bet the Rockies: There are still some questions in this bullpen and they need a few more relief pitchers. Injuries are always a concern, plus this lineup often struggles to score runs on the road and away from the thin air and altitude.

Season win total pick: Over 76.5


Los Angeles Dodgers (2013: 92-70, +541 units, 73-82-7 over/under)

Division odds: 5/14
Season win total: 92.5

Why bet the Dodgers: Clayton Kershaw leads the best rotation in the division with Hyun Jin Ryu, Zack Greinke, Dan Haren and Josh Beckett. Haren and Beckett are aging, but they will not have as much pressure on them now at the back of the rotation. The lineup features a lot of depth from Yasiel Puig to Matt Kemp. The bullpen has some power arms in Brian Wilson and Paco Rodriguez.

Why not bet the Dodgers: Greinke presents an uncertainty, both emotionally and physically, especially since he is coming off a broken collarbone. How will the Dodgers handle the outfield issues with Puig, Carl Crawford, Kemp and Andre Ethier all vying for spots? Will Puig have a sophomore slump? Haren and Beckett need to bounce back from past struggles.

Season win total pick: Over 92.5


San Diego Padres (2013: 76-86, +241 units, 75-82-5 over/under)

Division odds: 14/1
Season win total: 79

Why bet the Padres: The fences are changing in Petco Park and it should help this offense that features talented youngsters such as Jedd Gyorko and Yonder Alonso. Relief pitcher Huston Street is in the final year of his contract which should lead to a motivated effort. Joaquin Benoit backs him up in a solid bullpen.

Why not bet the Padres: The starting rotation is up in the air with Andrew Cashner and Josh Johnson leading the way. Johnson needs to show his awful year in Toronto was a fluke. Ian Kennedy is the number three starter, but he had a poor 4.24 ERA with San Diego last season. This batting order lacks consistent punch.

Season win total pick: Under 79


San Francisco Giants (2013: 76-86, -2095 units, 73-80-9 over/under)

Division odds: 9/2
Season win total: 86.5

Why bet the Giants: The rotation gets better with the addition of veteran pitcher Tim Hudson. He will be a solid influence on Madison Bumgarner and Matt Cain. Sergio Romo is a good closer who never threw more then 28 pitches in an outing last year. Buster Posey is one of the best catchers in the game and a solid cleanup hitter in the lineup.

Why not bet the Giants: San Francisco's left fielders hit just five home runs last year. Ryan Vogelsong needs to improve after an awful start last season which led to a poor 5.73 ERA overall. The bench is thin, so injuries could become a factor.

Season win total pick: Over 86.5

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Monday's MLB American League betting cheat sheet

Check out our quick-hitting betting notes for Monday's American League games:

Kansas City Royals at Detroit Tigers (-159, 7)

Cold pitching stat: Tigers right-hander Justin Verlander was just 1-3 with a 3.27 ERA in six starts against the Royals last season.

Hot batting stat: Detroit outfielder Torii Hunter hit 5-for-17 against Royals starter James Shields in 2013, but also struck out five times.

Weather: Temperatures will be in the mid-40s with partly cloudy skies and wind blowing in from center field at 8 mph.

Key betting note: Kansas City is 11-1 in Shields' previous 12 road starts.

Boston Red Sox at Baltimore Orioles (105, 8.5)

Hot pitching stat: Red Sox left-hander Jon Lester is 15-3 with a 2.94 ERA in 25 career starts versus Baltimore.

Hot batting stat: Orioles slugger Chris Davis hit a MLB-best 53 home runs last season, becoming the first Oriole to finish with the outrighe lead in homers since Brooks Robinson in 1966.

Weather: Temperatures will be in the low-60s under partly cloudy skies with wind blowing in from left field at 14 mph.

Key betting note: Under is 8-1 in Baltimore right-hander Chris Tillman's last nine starts.

Minnesota Twins at Chicago White Sox (-163, 7)

Cold pitching stat: Twins right-hander Ricky Nolasco is 0-1 with a 6.23 ERA in two career starts at US Cellular Field.

Cold batting stat: Minnesota had a 55 percent success rate on stolen base attempts on the road in 2013, tied with Arizona for the worst in baseball.

Weather: Temperatures will be in the low-60s with partly cloudy skies and wind blowing from right to left field at 19 mph.

Key betting note: The White Sox are 16-7 in Chris Sale's previous 23 starts as a home favorite.

Toronto Blue Jays at Tampa Bay Rays (-160, 7)

Cold pitching stat: Blue Jays knuckleballer R.A. Dickey is 12-13 with a 4.85 ERA in 43 career appearances in March and April.

Hot batting stat: Toronto outfielder Jose Bautista is 13-for-46 with five homers and 11 RBIs lifetime versus Rays left-hander David Price.

Weather: N/A.

Key betting note: Under is 7-2 in Dickey's last nine road starts.

Seattle Mariners at Los Angeles Angels (-133, 6.5)

Hot pitching stat: Seattle righty Felix Hernandez posted a 1.90 ERA while holding opponents to a .217 average in six March and April starts in 2013.

Hot batting stat: Angels outfielder Mike Trout had five hits in 14 at-bats against Hernandez last season, including a double and a triple.

Weather: Temperatures will be in the high-50s with a 63 percent chance of rain and wind blowing out to center field at 8 mph.

Key betting note: The Angels are 15-2 in their last 17 home games with a total of 6.5 or lower.

Cleveland Indians at Oakland Athletics (-133, 7)

Hot pitching stat: Cleveland right-hander Justin Masterson is coming off a career-best 14 wins while averaging better than a strikeout per inning in 2013.

Hot batting stat: Athletics outfielder Yoenis Cespedes batted .314 in September last season after failing to hit better than .237 in any of the first five months of the campaign.

Weather: Temperatures will be in the low-50s with a 78 percent chance of rain and wind blowing from left to right field at 8 mph.

Key betting note: Under is 7-0 in Masterson's last seven road starts.

Interleague

Philadelphia Phillies at Texas Rangers (-106, 8)

Hot pitching stat: Rangers right-hander Tanner Scheppers, making his first career major-league start, posted a 1.88 ERA and a 1.07 WHIP in 76 reliev appearances in 2013.

Cold batting stat: Phillies shortstop Jimmy Rollins had just two homers and nine RBIs in 263 plate appearances in the second half of 2013.

Weather: Temperatures will be in the mid-70s under mostly cloudy skies with wind blowing in from right field at 13 mph.

Key betting note: Rangers are 7-0 in their last seven games as a home favorite.


** Odds, stats, weather forecasts and probable pitchers as of 2:35 a.m. ET Sunday.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Monday's MLB National League betting cheat sheet

Check out our quick-hitting betting notes for Monday's National League games:

Chicago Cubs at Pittsburgh Pirates (-159, 7)

Hot pitching stat: Cubs starter Jeff Samardzija had a 3.35 ERA and 47 strikeouts in 37 innings in March and April of last season.

Hot batting stat: Pirates outfielder Andrew McCutchen hit .339 with 11 home runs and 35 RBIs in 286 second-half plate appearances in 2013.

Weather: Temperatures will be in the mid-50s with sunny skies and wind blowing out to right field at 6 mph.

Key betting note: Cubs are 1-8 in their last nine games as a road underdog.

Washington Nationals at New York Mets (150, 6.5)

Hot pitching stat: Nationals right-hander Stephen Strasburg is 2-1 with a 1.88 ERA and 31 strikeouts in four career starts versus the Mets.

Hot batting stat: Mets third baseman David Wright hit no worse than .296 in any month last season.

Weather: Temperatures will be in the high-40s with a 59 percent chance of rain and wind blowing in from center field at 15 mph.

Key betting note: Washington is 19-7 in its last 26 games against NL East opponents.

Atlanta Braves at Milwaukee Brewers (-103, 7.5)

Cold pitching stat: Brewers right-hander Yovani Gallardo was 5-6 with a 4.58 ERA at home last season, compared to 7-4, 3.77 on the road.

Cold batting stat: Braves outfielder B.J. Upton registered a .557 OPS last season, the worst by a player at his position with a minimum of 400 plate appearances since 2000.

Weather: Temperatures will be in the mid-50s with partly cloudy skies and wind blowing in from right field at 15 mph.

Key betting note: Under is 13-3 in Milwaukee's last 16 games versus the NL East.

St. Louis Cardinals at Cincinnati Reds (102, 7)

Cold pitching stat: Reds starter Johnny Cueto is 4-4 with a 4.66 ERA and just 39 strikeouts in 83 career innings versus the Cardinals.

Hot batting stat: Cincinnati first baseman Joey Votto has led the league in walks in each of the last three seasons.

Weather: Temperatures will be in the high-60s with partly cloudy skies and wind blowing from right to left field at 7 mph.

Key betting note: Over is 8-2-2 in the Cardinals' last 12 games versus the NL Central.

Colorado Rockies at Miami Marlins (-148, 6.5)

Hot pitching stat: Marlins righty Jose Fernandez went 7-1 with a 1.32 ERA and 84 strikeouts in 10 second-half starts in 2013.

Hot batting stat: Rockies shortstop Troy Tulowitzki is a .287 hitter with seven homers and 24 RBIs in 129 at-bats against Miami.

Weather: Temperatures will be in the low-70s under clear skies with wind blowing from right to left field at 6 mph.

Key betting note: Miami is 11-0 in Fernandez's last 11 home starts.

San Francisco Giants at Arizona Diamondbacks (120, 8)

Hot pitching stat: Giants lefty Madison Bumgarner posted a 1.19 ERA with 22 strikeouts in five spring training starts.

Hot batting stat: Diamondbacks first baseman and NL home-run champion Paul Goldschmidt batted .340 in 50 at-bats with two outs and runners in scoring position in 2013.

Weather: Temperatures will be in the high-70s with sunny skies and wind blowing from left to right field at 8 mph.

Key betting note: Under is 8-1-2 in Bumgarner's previous 11 road starts.

** Odds, stats, weather forecasts and probable pitchers as of 3:15 a.m. ET Sunday.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Betting 101: How to safely bet early-season MLB action

Baseball is here, firing the starting gun on what is a marathon for bettors that stretches the spring, summer and fall. The MLB season is filled with peaks and valleys, however, if those valleys come too soon into the schedule, you won’t even have a shot at hitting those peaks.

Navigating the early baseball schedule is one of the toughest tasks for sports bettors, and in order to help you survive April and May we’ve asked some of Covers Experts’ sharpest MLB handicappers to share their best tips for betting early-season baseball:

Sean Murphy – “Don't get caught playing big favorites on a nightly basis. Even the best teams lose close to 40 percent of their games. It's a major cliche, but the MLB season is a marathon - not a sprint. Try to grind out profits by playing undervalued underdogs and you'll find the 162-game grind far more enjoyable.”

Teddy Covers – “Believe what you see, not what you read. Remember last year when the Los Angeles Angels came into the season with more hype than any team in baseball, getting accolades from just about every baseball writer and TV talking head in the country? Then remember how the Angels went 9-17 in April, losing 11 of those games as a favorite? This seems to happen with at least one or two 'hyped' teams every year. Ignore the hype and concentrate on what you are actually seeing on the field.”

Marc Lawrence – “Among my early baseball betting strategies is charting pitchers form coming out of Spring Training. While the effort in spring isn't a true barometer of a pitcher's ability, it often points to those who are sharp and those who are not. Pitchers with WHIPS at or below 1.00 tend to be around the plate. Those with WHIPS at or above 1.80 are not. Couple the good WHIPS with commanding K/W's and you generally have an arm you can rely on. On the flip side, those with lousy WHIPS and bad K/W's are early fade material. As an example, San Francisco's Madison Bumgarner: 0.75 WHIP; two walks, 22 strikeouts. Tampa Bays' Matt Moore: 1.95 WHIP; 15 walks, 14 strikeouts.

Nick Parsons – “Be patient. Wait for teams to go through the rotation once. Even in that small amount of time, you can glean a lot of information - not only about the starters, but also the pen, the closers and the team itself. MLB gamblers should wait a week and a half before making any serious bets.”

Ben Burns – “Some handicappers ignore spring training entirely. Not me. In fact, I spent last spring in the Clearwater/Tampa area taking in Grapefruit League action and this spring in the Scottsdale/Phoenix area, checking out the Cactus League. I pay particular attention to starting pitchers that have shown improvement throughout the spring and who are coming off a strong outing in their final tuneup.”

Steve Merril – “When handicapping the first few weeks of the MLB season, pay attention to how the starting pitchers performed in Spring Training. Players that struggled often have it carry over into the start of the regular season. Many times it is a player who is out of shape or maybe recovering from an injury or just hasn't gotten rid of the offseason rust. Regardless of the reason, be careful of backing a struggling player, especially a starting pitcher, until you see them turn things around in regular games.”

Jesse Schule – “I find that often one of the most important stats in handicapping baseball games is a pitcher's numbers in day and night. There are so many examples of Major League pitchers that are Jekyll-and-Hyde depending on the time of day. I think this is often overlooked, and I recommend paying close attention to these stats.”

Doc’s Sports – “One of the keys to betting early season baseball is to be very cautious and wait for only the best opportunities. It can be difficult to get a good read on each team early on, but if you can find the teams that seem to be swinging a hot bat or who have a starting pitcher in a nice early groove, then you’re ahead of the game. There aren't a ton of these situations in the first few weeks, so it's important to be patient and only get your money in when it makes sense. No one wants to start the baseball season in a huge hole by the end of April. It's a long season and there will be plenty of chances to find good bets throughout. Be patient and pay close attention to which teams seem to be in mid-season form early on.”

Will Rogers – “There are so many statistics and numbers available, and I feel it's my job to examine all possible trends and stats, separating which are the most relevant. One example I can give you would be Roy Halladay last year. He's one of the better pitchers of his generation, so he would have impressive stats in several categories: win/loss, ERA, WHIP, batter-versus-pitcher, etc. The most important stat last season, though, was the velocity of his fastball, or lack thereof.”