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Five MLB star pitchers who could bust in 2014
By NUMBERFIRE
Fading a struggling pitcher is just as profitable as following a streaking one, especially if you beat the market to the punch and bet against these aces before they fall apart completely.
The mathematical masterminds at NumberFire have dug deep into their MLB analytics and predict five stud hurlers destined for a downfall in 2014:
Zack Greinke, Los Angeles Dodgers (14.98 units in 2013)
Zack Greinke cruised to a 2.63 ERA last year due to a phenomenal second half. The 1.85 ERA in the second half was much better than his 3.49 ERA in about the same amount of innings. The progress he made in that second half of the season is probably why he posted his best BABIP since his rookie year in 2004.
His 2013 BABIP was .276, 29 points better than his career average. To go along with this, Greinke posted an 80.8 percent LOB percentage, 7.4 percent better than his career average. These are two obvious stats that will dictate which way Greinke’s ERA will go in 2014.
Greinke posted his best ERA since 2009, but posted his second-worst SIERA in the last five seasons. The 3.60 SIERA that he posted in 2013 is actually his career average, yet he posted an ERA 1.02 higher. Our projections currently have him pegged to produce a 3.35 ERA this year.
David Price, Tampa Bay Rays (-7.46 units in 2013)
Price's body is starting to wear down after he missed time at the beginning of last season. Despite a 1.68 ERA during July, his ERA climbed to 2.64 in August and 3.40 in September/October. Price is known for accumulating strikeouts on a consistent basis, but his strikeouts-per-nine rate dropped from 8.74 and 8.75 in 2012 and 2011, respectively, to 7.28 in 2013.
The velocity on his fastballs averages out to 95.5, while in 2013 it dropped to 93.4. His cutter and sliders have lost a little edge as well - cutter dropped from 90 to 88.5 and his slider dipped from 87.8 to 86.
On top of declining numbers, Price gets the luxury of pitching in the American League East, with the loaded lineups of the Yankees and Red Sox, and the always dangerous Orioles and Blue Jays packing the schedule.
Jered Weaver, Los Angeles Angels (+2.08 units in 2013)
Weaver’s fastball dropped to an alarming 86.8 mph last season – and that was his four-seamer. It's true that Weaver has never been a fireballer, but he started his career up above 90 mph and has at least been closer to that than 85.To make matters worse, Weaver is an extreme fly-ball pitcher, placing second in the majors in fly-ball percentage.
He’s been a low-BABIP guy for a long time, but last year he wasn't giving up soft contact, allowing 22.4 percent line drives. A righty with weird mechanics and a below-average K-rate, who throws an 86-mph fastball over 60 percent of the time and yields 70 percent elevated contact, is kind of due to turn into Jose Lima at some point.
Michael Wacha, St. Louis Cardinals (-6.80 units in 2013)
For those unfamiliar, pitch value statistics measure the results of each pitch type for each pitcher, then divide per 100 pitches thrown, which shows us the effectiveness of each pitch. This stat is not perfect, since it does not consider such things as set-up pitches, but generally speaking it is useful. For these stats, zero is average and higher is better.
Wacha's fastball and changeup were both as good as advertised, grading out as 1.39 and 1.26 respectively, while his breaking ball was a poor -0.78. Perhaps Wacha's fastball/changeup combo are so good that he was underrated but it’s more likely that Wacha was simply pitching over his head in October.
Unless Wacha can develop a quality third pitch, he will regress in 2014 with an ERA likely in the mid-3.00s, which is where projections have him (3.59). That means he will still be a very good pitcher, but he won’t be an ace unless he develops a quality breaking pitch.
Ervin Santana, Atlanta Braves (-2.63 units in 2013)
Santana's 2013 was certainly a rejuvenation of his career. He finished with a 3.24 ERA and had his lowest BB/9 (2.18) since 2008. Santana finished with the highest strand rate (76.9 percent) of his career. This was the 22nd-highest total of all qualified pitchers last year, meaning he should expect some regression there this season.
He reaped the benefits of essentially having Salvador Perez as his personal catcher. According to FanGraphs' defensive rating stat, Perez was the third-best defensive catcher in all of baseball last year. Perez caught Santana in 28 of his 32 starts last year. In those 28 starts, Santana recorded a 3.13 ERA. Over the other 268 appearances of his career, Santana has an ERA of 4.31.
By NUMBERFIRE
Fading a struggling pitcher is just as profitable as following a streaking one, especially if you beat the market to the punch and bet against these aces before they fall apart completely.
The mathematical masterminds at NumberFire have dug deep into their MLB analytics and predict five stud hurlers destined for a downfall in 2014:
Zack Greinke, Los Angeles Dodgers (14.98 units in 2013)
Zack Greinke cruised to a 2.63 ERA last year due to a phenomenal second half. The 1.85 ERA in the second half was much better than his 3.49 ERA in about the same amount of innings. The progress he made in that second half of the season is probably why he posted his best BABIP since his rookie year in 2004.
His 2013 BABIP was .276, 29 points better than his career average. To go along with this, Greinke posted an 80.8 percent LOB percentage, 7.4 percent better than his career average. These are two obvious stats that will dictate which way Greinke’s ERA will go in 2014.
Greinke posted his best ERA since 2009, but posted his second-worst SIERA in the last five seasons. The 3.60 SIERA that he posted in 2013 is actually his career average, yet he posted an ERA 1.02 higher. Our projections currently have him pegged to produce a 3.35 ERA this year.
David Price, Tampa Bay Rays (-7.46 units in 2013)
Price's body is starting to wear down after he missed time at the beginning of last season. Despite a 1.68 ERA during July, his ERA climbed to 2.64 in August and 3.40 in September/October. Price is known for accumulating strikeouts on a consistent basis, but his strikeouts-per-nine rate dropped from 8.74 and 8.75 in 2012 and 2011, respectively, to 7.28 in 2013.
The velocity on his fastballs averages out to 95.5, while in 2013 it dropped to 93.4. His cutter and sliders have lost a little edge as well - cutter dropped from 90 to 88.5 and his slider dipped from 87.8 to 86.
On top of declining numbers, Price gets the luxury of pitching in the American League East, with the loaded lineups of the Yankees and Red Sox, and the always dangerous Orioles and Blue Jays packing the schedule.
Jered Weaver, Los Angeles Angels (+2.08 units in 2013)
Weaver’s fastball dropped to an alarming 86.8 mph last season – and that was his four-seamer. It's true that Weaver has never been a fireballer, but he started his career up above 90 mph and has at least been closer to that than 85.To make matters worse, Weaver is an extreme fly-ball pitcher, placing second in the majors in fly-ball percentage.
He’s been a low-BABIP guy for a long time, but last year he wasn't giving up soft contact, allowing 22.4 percent line drives. A righty with weird mechanics and a below-average K-rate, who throws an 86-mph fastball over 60 percent of the time and yields 70 percent elevated contact, is kind of due to turn into Jose Lima at some point.
Michael Wacha, St. Louis Cardinals (-6.80 units in 2013)
For those unfamiliar, pitch value statistics measure the results of each pitch type for each pitcher, then divide per 100 pitches thrown, which shows us the effectiveness of each pitch. This stat is not perfect, since it does not consider such things as set-up pitches, but generally speaking it is useful. For these stats, zero is average and higher is better.
Wacha's fastball and changeup were both as good as advertised, grading out as 1.39 and 1.26 respectively, while his breaking ball was a poor -0.78. Perhaps Wacha's fastball/changeup combo are so good that he was underrated but it’s more likely that Wacha was simply pitching over his head in October.
Unless Wacha can develop a quality third pitch, he will regress in 2014 with an ERA likely in the mid-3.00s, which is where projections have him (3.59). That means he will still be a very good pitcher, but he won’t be an ace unless he develops a quality breaking pitch.
Ervin Santana, Atlanta Braves (-2.63 units in 2013)
Santana's 2013 was certainly a rejuvenation of his career. He finished with a 3.24 ERA and had his lowest BB/9 (2.18) since 2008. Santana finished with the highest strand rate (76.9 percent) of his career. This was the 22nd-highest total of all qualified pitchers last year, meaning he should expect some regression there this season.
He reaped the benefits of essentially having Salvador Perez as his personal catcher. According to FanGraphs' defensive rating stat, Perez was the third-best defensive catcher in all of baseball last year. Perez caught Santana in 28 of his 32 starts last year. In those 28 starts, Santana recorded a 3.13 ERA. Over the other 268 appearances of his career, Santana has an ERA of 4.31.
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