4-1-14

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Tuesday's MLB National League betting cheat sheet

Check out our quick-hitting betting notes for Tuesday's National League games:

Los Angeles Dodgers at San Diego Padres (138, 6.5)

Hot pitching stat: Dodgers hurler Zack Greinke was 2-0 with a 1.44 ERA in four starts against the Padres last season.

Cold batting stat: Padres outfielder Will Venable is 1-for-13 with seven strikeouts lifetime against Greinke.

Weather: Temperatures will be in the low-60s with partly cloudy skies and wind blowing from left to right field at 8 mph.

Key betting note: Dodgers are 9-1 in Greinke's last 10 games against the National League West.

Colorado Rockies at Miami Marlins (-110, 7.5)

Cold pitching stat: Marlins starter Nathan Eovaldi was 2-4 with a 4.01 ERA at home in 2013 compared to 2-2, 2.80 on the road.

Hot batting stat: Rockies veteran Michael Cuddyer hit 9-for-28 and posted a .464 OBP versus Miami last season.

Weather: Temperatures will be in the mid-70s under clear skies with wind blowing from right to left field at 8 mph.

Key betting note: Under is 8-1-2 in the last 11 meetings.

Atlanta Braves at Milwaukee Brewers (185, 8)

Hot pitching stat: Brewers righty Kyle Lohse threw a complete-game two-hit shutout in his only meeting with Atlanta last season.

Cold batting stat: Braves outfielder Justin Upton is 2-for-17 in his career against Lohse.

Weather: Temperatures will be in the low-40s with clear skies and wind blowing out to left-center field at 9 mph.

Key betting note: Over is 6-0 in Atlanta's last six games.

San Francisco Giants at Arizona Diamondbacks (-102, 8)

Cold pitching stat: Giants right-hander Matt Cain surrendered a career-high 23 home runs last season.

Cold batting stat: Arizona catcher Miguel Montero is a .208 hitter with 15 strikeouts in 53 at-bats against Cain.

Weather: Temperatures will be in the low-70s under partly cloudy skies with wind blowing out to right field at 12 mph.

Key betting note: Under is 9-1-1 in the last 11 meetings.

** Odds, stats, weather forecasts and probable pitchers as of 2:45 p.m. ET Monday.

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Tuesday's MLB American League betting cheat sheet

Check out our quick-hitting betting notes for Tuesday's American League games:

New York Yankees at Houston Astros (158, 8)

Cold pitching stat: Yankees left-hander CC Sabathia is 24-16 with a 4.05 ERA in March and April - his second-highest ERA of any month.

Hot batting stat: New York outfielder Alfonso Soriano had 17 home runs and 50 RBIs in 58 games with the Yankees in 2013.

Weather: Temperatures will be in the mid-70s with partly cloudy skies and wind blowing out to left-center field at 12 mph.

Key betting note: New York is 27-6 in Sabathia's last 33 starts versus the American League West.

Toronto Blue Jays at Tampa Bay Rays (-149, 7.5)

Hot pitching stat: Rays starter Alex Cobb is 2-0 with a 1.35 ERA in two career starts versus the Blue Jays.

Hot/Cold batting stat: Blue Jays outfielder Jose Bautista has 19 home runs in 83 games against the Rays - tied for his second-most against any team.

Weather: N/A

Key betting note: Under is 5-1 in the last six meetings in Tampa Bay.

Seattle Mariners at Los Angeles Angels (-164, 7.5)

Hot pitching stat: Left-handers hit just .169 with two home runs in 201 plate appearances in 2013 against Angels southpaw C.J. Wilson.

Cold batting stat: Los Angeles outfielder Josh Hamilton had a .289 OBP in 294 plate appearances at home lat season.

Weather: Temperatures will be in the mid-50s with a 57 percent chance of rain and wind blowing out to left-center field at 11 mph.

Key betting note: Mariners are 2-8 in their last 10 games against divisional foes.

Cleveland Indians at Oakland Athletics (-136, 7.5)

Hot pitching stat: Indians left-hander Scott Kazmir posted a 1.62 ERA and 14 strikeouts in 16 2/3 innings in spring training.

Hot batting stat: Oakland scored a major league-best 158 runs in April last season.

Weather: Temperatures will be in the high-40s with an 81 percent chance of thundershowers and wind blowing out to centre field at 7 mph.

Key betting note: Indians are 13-3 in Corey Kluber's last 16 starts.

Interleague

Philadelphia Phillies at Texas Rangers (-131, 8.5)

Cold pitching stat: Phillies right-hander A.J. Burnett was 5-7 with a 4.22 ERA in 16 road starts in 2013.

Cold batting stat: Philadelphia finished third-last in the National League in runs scored and second-last in walks.

Weather: Temperatures will be in the mid-70s under mostly cloudy skies with wind blowing in from right-venter field at 14 mph.

Key betting note: Phillies are 2-11 in their last 13 interleague road games.

** Odds, stats, weather forecasts and probable pitchers as of 2:15 p.m. ET Monday.

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Three MLB pitchers primed for a breakout in 2014
By NUMBERFIRE

Finding an undervalued arm before he catches fire is one the keys to betting early-season baseball. The mathematical masterminds at NumberFire have dug deep into their MLB analytics and predict three hurlers who have the stats on their side and look primed for a big breakout in 2014:

Scott Kazmir, Oakland Athletics (+0.75 units in 2013)

Last season, Kazmir posted some of his best numbers since 2008. A 9.23 K/9 and a BB/9 of 2.68. The last two seasons, Kazmir threw 145-plus innings were in 2009 and 2010. His K/9 during those two seasons were 5.58 and 7.15, respectively, and he also walked 4.74 and 3.67 per nine innings. For a future Kazmir owner, this increase in K/9 and decrease in BB/9 is a good thing.

His season-long improvement in the K/9 category was due to his performance in the second half of the season. His 10.25 strikeouts per nine innings ranked him sixth overall in that category. That’s a juicy number, but it’s not all about strikeouts and walks in fantasy baseball.

Kazmir posted a 4.04 ERA in a season where his BABIP was almost 19 points higher than his career average. There is reason to believe that his season could have gone better with a little better luck in that department, and his SIERRA/xFIP both show that. It's worth noting that, while both stats look at different on field occurrences, his SIERRA and xFIP were below 3.50. His SIERRA (3.45) and xFIP (3.36) were actually his career best numbers.

Danny Salazar, Cleveland Indians (-1.25 units in 2013)

When I think of breakouts, I think Matt Harvey. He made 10 starts in 2012 and showed a ton of talent. Then 2013 happened, and the dude is starting the All-Star game and making hilarious videos. Well, America, Matt Harvey 2.0 has arrived. His name is Danny Salazar, and he makes me all tingly.

The similarities between the two are shocking. In his 10 2012 starts, Harvey had a 2.73 ERA, 3.30 FIP, 10.62 K/9 and a 3.94 BB/9. In his 10 2013 starts, Salazar finished with a 3.12 ERA, 3.16 FIP, 11.25 K/9 and a 2.60 BB/9.

Salazar throws straight gas (average fastball velocity of 96.2 mph) and has a pretty dirty changeup, so he should be able to keep his K/9 at least around 10 over the course of an entire season. Give this guy 33 starts, and he'll be a top-of-the-line starter in no time.

Taijuan Walker, Seattle Mariners (+0.81 units)

Last season in the minors, Walker had 160 strikeouts over 141 1/3 innings, good for a 10.19 K/9. His ERA was 2.93 over 25 starts, but most of that came from quality starts at AA. At the AAA level, his ERA jumped to 3.61. His WHIP was a respectable 1.12 at both levels as well.

Walker's stats might not jump off the page, but it's what you'd expect out of a prospect that is wanted at the major-league level. He improved from Year 1 to Year 2 in Double-A, and probably would have done the same if able to stay at the Triple-A level.

Walker will need to improve on going deeper into games to fully succeed in the majors, but if he can keep his WHIP down and his ERA at a manageable level (don't forget what division he is in), he could provide just enough juice for the Mariners.

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MLB's worst baseball bets in Opening Week
By JASON LOGAN

Believe it or not, the 2014 MLB season is here. Opening Week kicks off with a single game Sunday night and the rest of the majors follows suit Monday.

Some teams seems to always be ready to go from Game 1 while others need a while to shake off the winter rust. Here are three teams that are consistently dull during the first two series of the season:

Stats as of past 11 seasons.

Worst Opening Week

Philadelphia Phillies (23-26 in Opening Week)

Opening opponents: at Texas, at Chi. White Sox

Even when the Phillies were a force to be reckoned with in the National League, they sputtered to start the year. Philadelphia couldn’t get out of that rut last spring, posting a 2-4 record in its opening two series, and things never really came around. The Phillies are expected to float in the middle of the league this season and begin the schedule on the road in interleague action.

Washington Nationals (26-36 in Opening Week)

Opening opponents: at N.Y. Mets, vs. Atlanta

Washington is putting a disappointing 2013 behind it. The Nationals are expected to contend for the NL East title, with a strong rotation and a new manager in Matt Williams. They jumped out to a strong 4-2 start last spring but have historically been a bad bet during Opening Week.

Cleveland Indians (26-34 in Opening Week)

Opening opponents: at Oakland, vs. Minnesota

Cleveland is turning the ship around but many expect a bit of a step back for the Tribe in 2014. The Indians were 3-3 out of the blocks last spring, splitting road wins and losses with the Blue Jays and Rays. Cleveland opened in Oakland, which is among the best Opening Week bets in baseball.

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MLB's hottest baseball bets in Opening Week
By JASON LOGAN

Believe it or not, the 2014 MLB season is here. Opening Week kicks off with a single game Sunday night and the rest of the majors follows suit Monday.

Some teams seem to always be ready to go from Game 1 while others need a while to shake off the winter rust. Here are three teams that have been sharp during Opening Week of the season:

Stats as of past 11 seasons

Best Opening Week

Los Angeles Dodgers (38-28 in Opening Week)

Opening opponents: at San Diego, vs. San Francisco

The Dodgers have technically already opened the 2014 campaign, going Down Under for two wins against Arizona. Los Angeles continues to be a solid bet out of the gate, going 4-2 in its first two series of the schedule last spring. The Dodgers, however, are overwhelming World Series faves and carry some hefty price tags. They were -116 and -162 favorites in the wins over the Diamondbacks.

Oakland Athletics (38-28 in Opening Week)

Opening opponents: vs. Cleveland, vs. Seattle

The A’s are known for their late-season pushes, turning up the intensity in the home stretch of the schedule. But Oakland is just as good out of the blocks, winning 58 percent of its Opening Week games over the past 11 seasons. The Athletics went 5-2 in their first two series last April, outscoring opponents 38-22 in that span. However, four of those games came against the Astros.

Cincinnati Reds (37-26 in Opening Week)

Opening opponents: vs. St. Louis, at N.Y. Mets

The Reds head into the 2014 season minus fireballer Aroldis Chapman, who took a nasty line drive to the face in Cactus League action. Cincinnati was able to get the ball rolling with a 4-2 record in its opening series last year, but those games all came at home. The Reds cooled off once it hit the bricks in the next week. Cincy splits Opening Week at home versus the Cardinals and on the road against the Mets.

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Steve Fezzik

3* CBB Game of the Year - Florida State/Minnesota Under 138.5
1* SMU/Clemson Under 120

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spartan | CBB Sides Tue, 04/01/14 - 7:00 PM
double-dime bet 768 Southern Methodist -3.0 (-110) 5dimes vs 767 Clemson
Analysis: I'm certain like a lot of you guys when I saw that Larry Brown had assumed control of the SMU basketball program I could not but help wonder what the hell? Did some mega serious Texas money come flowing in from some alum? Why in the hell, but Brown has always been a hoops gypsy and the guy has practically kept Atlas Van lines afloat the last few decades. What is honestly not surprising to me is the stone cold fact the guy has turned the program around in short order. Larry Brown can flat out coach guys. I know Clemson can appear formidable at times but they just can go into really extended scoring dry runs and I really have a tough time putting money on clubs like that. And if Clemson lags behind they have literally no long distance shooters to speak of to close gaps. Frankly I expected to be laying a little more here and the line has me scratching my head some. It's no Triple Sta£r but I like Browns kids enough to go Double Star and make them my featured release. We've had a solid run in tourney play, let's close with a strong kick guys. I like SMU here and frankly I would have gladly given five. Many sincere thanks as always and best of luck to us. Enjoy the game guys!

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Bank Shots: NBA's weekly betting news and notes

Each week, we look back on the NBA betting scene and give you the best - and worst - basketball bets, as well as some spots to keep an eye on with the upcoming schedule.

For the week ending March 24-30

Hottest ATS - Orlando Magic (2-1 SU, 2-0-1 ATS)

With no team going truly perfect against the spread last week, the lottery-bound Magic stand alone as the team providing the most value. Orlando doesn't appear content to float to the end of the regular season, posting an impressive 2-1 mark through the first three games of a four-game home stand. The Magic opened the stretch with a 95-85 victory over the Portland Trail Blazers before outlasting the Charlotte Bobcats 110-105 in overtime and earning the rare push in a 98-93 defeat at the hands of the Toronto Raptors.

Coldest ATS - Indiana Pacers (1-3 SU, 0-4 ATS)

The Pacers are struggling to maintain their lead over the Miami Heat atop the Eastern Conference standings, and have been absolute poison when it comes to spread and over bets. Indiana is 1-7 ATS in its last eight games, including a winless week that saw it drop road decisions to Chicago, Washington and Cleveland while pulling out a one-point win over the Heat. A major offensive collapse has plagued the slumping Pacers, who have scored more than 80 points just once in their last five games.

Best Over play - Memphis Grizzlies (2-2 SU, 3-1 O/U)

A handful of teams represented solid over plays this week, and the Grizzlies are at the top of the list. Despite being a below-average over team on the season, the Grizzlies found themselves in some higher-scoring outcomes en route to a break-even SU week. Memphis opened the stretch with a 109-92 victory over the Minnesota Timberwolves and a 91-87 triumph over the Utah Jazz, but suffered defensive breakdowns once it hit the road, surrendering triple-digit totals in losses to Golden State and Portland.

Best Under play - Miami Heat (3-1 SU, 0-4 O/U)

Miami has taken a minimalist approach to its pursuit of the top seed in the Eastern Conference, relying on lockdown defense to win three of four last week. After a narrow victory over Portland and that one-point loss to the Pacers, the Heat limited the Detroit Pistons to 78 points in a one-sided win before completely overwhelming the Milwaukee Bucks 88-67. Expect more of the same from Miami if it has to do without injured guards Dwyane Wade, Ray Allen and Mario Chalmers for any extended period of time.

Surveying the schedule

The San Antonio Spurs are doing exactly what they do at the end of every regular season, laying waste to opponents as the look to secure the No. 1 seed in the Western Conference. The Spurs enter the week on a franchise record-tying 17-game winning streak, and can break the club mark with a victory Monday night against the tumbling Pacers. The rest of the week looks a little more challenging, with home games against the Golden State Warriors and Grizzlies and a road date with the Oklahoma City Thunder looming.

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Pucking the Trends: NHL's weekly betting news and notes

Every week, we update you on who's hot, who's not and situational betting spots in the National Hockey League.

For the week of March 24-30

Hot team

Los Angeles Kings (4-0 SU)

The Kings are rounding into form at just the right time, putting together a four-win week to solidify its spot as the No. 6 seed in the Western Conference. Los Angeles fashioned a perfect 3-0 road trips with victories in Philadelphia, Washington and Pittsburgh before finishing things off with a 4-2 home triumph over the Winnipeg Jets. Netminder Jonathan Quick has been the catalyst for the Kings' late-season surge, winning each of his last five decisions and sitting at a scorching 11-2-0 over his last 13 games.

Cold team

Toronto Maple Leafs (0-3 SU)

Toronto fans have gone from moderately concerned to virtually inconsolable after watching their beloved Maple Leafs extend their losing streak to a season-high eight games. Toronto looked outclassed from start to finish in a 5-3 loss to the St. Louis Blues, then dropped a 4-2 decision to the Philadelphia Flyers and ended the week with a 4-2 defeat at the hands of the St. Louis Blues. The Maple Leafs will look to turn things around this week with a three-game homestand that includes games against Calgary, Boston and Winnipeg.

Best Over play

Nashville Predators (4-0 O/U)

Well, this is unexpected. Traditionally one of the most defensive-minded, offense-starved teams in the NHL, the Predators let their hair down last week and handsomely rewarded those over bettors who put their faith in them. Nashville opened the week with a 5-4 shootout loss to the Colorado Avalanche before bouncing back nicely in a 6-1 trouncing of the Buffalo Sabres. That momentum didn't carry over - the Predators dropped their next game 7-3 in Dallas - but they ended on a high with a 4-3 shootout triumph over Washington.

Best Under play

Pittsburgh Penguins (0-3-1 O/U)

Seeing the Penguins as a strong under play is almost as unlikely as tabbing the Predators as kings of the over. And yet, an 0-4-1 O/U run has Pittsburgh actually favouring the under for the season; it has surrendered the third-fewest goals in the Eastern Conference entering Monday, boasting sensational defense and goaltending to go along with its high-powered offense. The Penguins bounced back from consecutive 3-2 losses to Phoenix and Los Angeles by edging the Columbus Blue Jackets 2-1 and routing visiting Chicago 4-1.

Surveying the schedule

There's never a good time for a Western Conference team to embark on a four-game jaunt through the East, but the timing is especially bad for the Dallas Stars. They open the week one point behind Phoenix in the race for the final West wild-card spot, but will play its next four games outside Texas, where it owns a subpar 15-17-4 record on the season. Dallas kicks off the stretch in Washington before heading south to face the Carolina Hurricanes, Tampa Bay Lightning and Florida Panthers in a four-day span.

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NIT semifinals betting cheat sheet

Clemson Tigers vs. Southern Methodist Mustangs (-3, 119)

Clemson's K.J. McDaniels scored 16 points and DeMarcus Harrison poured in 14 of his 16 in the second half to spark the comeback victory over Belmont. McDaniels continues to deliver for the Tigers, leading them in scoring (17.2), rebounding (7.1), blocks (2.8) and steals (1.1). Clemson is shooting 74.2 percent from the free-throw line and has gone 34-for-42 from the charity stripe in this tournament.

Nic Moore, who tops the team in scoring (13.5), knocked down the game-winning 3-pointer with 6.5 seconds left to lift the Mustangs into the semifinals. Markus Kennedy had one of his best all-around games, recording 19 points, 10 rebounds, two assists and two steals versus California. SMU's stifling defense has played a major role in the program's revival, holding 23 of 35 opponents under 40 percent shooting from the floor.

TRENDS:

* Clemson is 1-4-1 ATS in its last six games following a SU win.
* SMU is 5-22-1 ATS in its last 28 neutral site games.
* Under is 8-2 in SMU's last 10 games overall.


Florida State Seminoles vs. Minnesota Golden Gophers (+1.5, 136)

Minnesota's Austin Hollins poured in a career-high 32 points to go with four assists and three steals while going 10-of-10 from the free-throw line in the win over Southern Miss. The Golden Gophers dished out a season-best 23 assists versus the Golden Eagles, with Andre Hollins providing a game-high seven. Free-throw shooting has played an integral role in Minnesota's recent run as it has gone 70-of-85 from the line in the tournament.

The top-seeded Seminoles aim to avenge a 71-61 defeat to Minnesota this season in the Big Ten/ACC Challenge. Aaron Thomas scored 14 of his team-high 21 points in the final frame and secured nine rebounds in the victory over Louisiana Tech. Okaro White, who was born in Brooklyn and will play in front of family and friends at Madison Square Garden, tallied 20 points and eight rebounds versus the Bulldogs.

TRENDS:

* Florida State is 1-7 ATS in its last eight games vs. the Big Ten.
* Minnesota is 1-5 ATS in its last six neutral site games.
* Under is 4-0 in Florida State's last four neutral site games.

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La Liga leaders clash at Camp Nou Tuesday
Andrew Avery

The matchup between La Liga leaders Atletico Madrid and second-placed Barcelona could prove to be the best of the Champions League quarterfinals.

Atletico is currently 20/1 to win Champions League and they have played the Catalans incredibly tight in recent meetings. In the previous three meetings in all competitions, the matches have resulted in draws, including a 0-0 draw on Jan. 11.

Barcelona is 7/2 to win European football's most prestigious prize and a -188 fave for the first leg. Atletico is a +600 road dog and the Draw is currently +333.

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Manchester United massive home dog versus Munich
Andrew Avery

On the heels of one of their more impressive home wins of the Barclays Premier League season, Manchester United finds themselves as lofty +650 home dogs with Bayern Munich visiting for the first leg of their Champions League tie Tuesday.

United spotted Aston Villa a 1-0 lead after an Ashley Westwood goal Saturday, but a pair from Wayne Rooney and goals from Juan Mata and Javier Hernandez saw the Red Devils through to a 4-1 win.

It was always going to be tough to defeat the German giants in this tie, but the Red Devils will need to do it without the services of Robin van Persie (injury), Patrice Evra (suspension) and Juan Mata (cup-tied with Chelsea).

The Bundesliga side is the -200 road fave, while the Draw is currently +350.

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NBA

Hot teams
-- Nets won six of last eight games. Rockets won five of their last six.
-- Warriors won three of their last four road games.
-- Trailblazers won last three games, by 15-17-7 points.

Cold Teams
-- Mavericks covered twice in their last seven games.
-- Lakers lost six of their last eight games.

Series records
-- Rockets won their last ten games with Brooklyn.
-- Home side won last five Dallas-Golden State games.
-- Lakers won six of last eight games with Portland.

Totals
-- Seven of last eight Houston games, last seven Brooklyn games went over total.
-- Six of last seven Dallas-Golden State games stayed under.
-- Four of last five Portland games stayed under the total.

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NHL

Hot teams
-- Flames are 6-1 in game following their last seven losses.
-- Islanders won three of their last four games.
-- Penguins won their last two games, 2-1/4-1.
-- Dallas Stars won four of their last five games.
-- Avalanche won their last three games, all by one goal.
-- Canadiens won eight of their last nine games. Lightning won seven of last ten.
-- St Louis won three of its last four games.
-- Rangers won six of their last seven games.


Cold teams
-- Buffalo lost 11 of its last 12 games. Devils lost six of their last nine.
-- Maple Leafs lost their last eight games, scoring 19 goals.
-- Florida lost six of its last seven games.
-- Hurricanes lost three of their last four games.
-- Washington won four of its last five games.
-- Columbus is 1-5 in game following its last six wins.
-- Flyers lost three of their last four games.
-- Vancouver lost its last two games, scoring three goals.
-- Winnipeg lost four of its last five games. Coyotes lost last two home games, scoring total of three goals.
-- Oilers/Sharks both lost four of their last five games.

Totals
-- Under is 3-1-1 in last five New Jersey games.
-- Five of last six Toronto games went over total.
-- Under is 5-2-1 in last eight Florida games.
-- Seven of last eight Carolina games stayed under.
-- Seven of last nine Dallas games went over total.
-- Seven of last eight Columbus games stayed under.
-- Nine of last twelve Tampa Bay games went over.
-- Over is 20-12-4 in Flyer road games this season.
-- Five of last seven Ranger-Canuck games stayed under.
-- Last three Winnipeg games went over the total.
-- Over is 4-1-1 in last six Edmonton games.

Series records
-- Devils lost three of last four visits to Buffalo.
-- Flames won three of last five games with Toronto.
-- Islanders are 0-2 vs Florida this season, losing 4-2/5-3.
-- Penguins won eight of last nine games with Carolina.
-- Dallas won its last three games with Washington, allowing four goals.
-- Blue Jackets won four of last six games with Colorado.
-- Canadiens won five of last seven games with Tampa Bay; all three meetings this year went to OT/SO.
-- Flyers just beat St Louis 4-1 ten days ago, its first win in last three series games.
-- Rangers won last three games with Vancouver, allowing two goals.
-- Coyotes lost their last three games with Winnipeg.
-- Sharks won six of last seven games with Edmonton.