4-5-14

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Final Four betting preview: Kentucky vs. Wisconsin

Kentucky Wildcats vs. Wisconsin Badgers (+1.5, 139)

Kentucky was anointed the top team in the country prior to the season and suddenly has an opportunity to emerge as the best at the end of it after a bumpy ride. The eighth-seeded Wildcats face second-seeded Wisconsin in Saturday’s Final Four at Arlington, Texas, and are brimming with confidence due to an impressive tournament run through the Midwest regional. The Badgers qualified for the national semifinals with a solid win over Arizona in the West regional final.

Wisconsin can match the school record for victories by reaching the national title game but will be at an athletic disadvantage against the Wildcats and the players are weary of hearing about it. “You’re in the Final Four, you obviously did something right,” Badgers guard Josh Gasser said at a press conference. “Kentucky deserves credit for a being a good team and I think so do we. We’ve beaten a ton of good teams this year and I think that speaks for itself. We don’t really care what the outside perception is of us.” Wisconsin is in the Final Four for the first time since 2000 while Kentucky is back for the third time in five seasons during John Calipari’s coaching tenure.

TV: 8:49 p.m. ET, TBS

LINE HISTORY: The Badgers opened as 2-point dogs and have been bet to +1.5. The total opened 138.5 and is up to 139.

INJURY REPORT: Kentucky: F Willie Cauley-Stein (Questionable, ankle)

WHAT THE SHARPS SAY: "Both teams feature 7-foot centers. Both teams have veteran coaches. What Wisconsin lacks in overall team size and athleticism, it more than makes up for with a deep bench. The Wildcats would open as 2.5-point favorites, but money continues to pour in on Wisconsin and that opening line has dropped to 1. " Covers Expert Nick Parsons.

WHAT THE BOOKS SAY: "I personally made the game a pick’em, but again seeing the kind of support we saw on Kentucky in their recent games, we wanted to open high on them. As predicted, the public has backed the Kentucky but we’ve also seen very sharp support on Wisconsin" Michael Stewart Carbonsports.ag

CHEERLEADER WAR:



WHY BET KENTUCKY (28-10 SU, 19-15-2 ATS, 15-19 O/U): Double-double machine Julius Randle (15.1 points, 10.7 rebounds) is the best NBA prospect of the starting freshmen but guard Aaron Harrison (14.1) was the hero in the Elite Eight victory over Michigan when he drained the game-winning 3-pointer with 2.6 seconds remaining. “I think we all just learned it’s all about winning,” Harrison told reporters at a midweek press conference when asked about Kentucky’s strong tournament showing. “It doesn’t matter individually what you’re doing. You just have to do whatever you can for the team to win.” Guards James Young (14.1) and Andrew Harrison (11 per game) also average in double digits.

WHY BET WISCONSIN (30-7 SU, 21-16 ATS, 19-17 O/U): Center Frank Kaminsky (14.1 points) had 28 points and 11 rebounds against Arizona as he continues his transformation from role player last season to go-to scorer. “I really can’t explain it,” Kaminsky told reporters. “It’s just something more of an opportunity this year than in the past. But I can’t thank my teammates enough for helping me get through this.” Guard Ben Brust averages 12.8 points and is 12-of-23 from 3-point range in the NCAA tournament, while forward Sam Dekker (12.4) and point guard Traevon Jackson (10.7) also average in double digits.

TWEET BEAT:



TRENDS:

* Wildcats are 5-0 ATS in their last five NCAA Tournament games.
* Badgers are 10-1 ATS in their last 11 non-conference games.
* Over is 7-3 in Wildcats last 10 NCAA Tournament games.
* Under is 8-3 in Badgers last 11 neutral site games.

COVERS CONSENSUS: 51 percent of wagers are on Wisconsin.

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Final Four betting preview: UConn vs. Florida

Connecticut Huskies vs. Florida Gators (-6, 126.5)

Florida won its 30th straight game to reach the Final Four in north Texas, where they will face the last team to beat them - Connecticut. The top-seeded Gators swept through the South regional and have a chance to avenge both their losses this with the East regional champion Huskies in the mix along with Wisconsin looming in a potential championship game. To get there, Florida will have to find a way to stop Shabazz Napier.

Napier was a freshman on the team Kemba Walker put on his back and carried to a national championship in 2011 and is using a similar model in his senior campaign. The point guard scored 17 of his 25 points in the second half of the regional final victory over Michigan State and has made a habit out of clutch performances in carrying Connecticut. The Gators have a quartet of seniors on which to lean and rarely need any one player to take over the game offensively.

TV: 6:09 p.m. ET, TBS

LINE HISTORY: The Gators opened as 6.5-point faves but now sit -6. The total opened 125 and has been bet upt 126.5.

INJURY REPORT: UConn: G Pat Lenehan (Questionable, undisclosed)

WHAT THE SHARPS SAY: "The Gators have lost only two games this year. They've won 30 games in a row since their last loss. That setback was to these very same Huskies - 65-64 as 4-point underdogs back on Dec. 2. Shabazz Napier of Connecticut is the most dynamic player left in the Tournament, but the oddsmakers clearly believe he'll have his hands full with this tough Florida defense as evidenced by the 6.5-point spread." Covers Expert Nick Parsons.

WHAT THE BOOKS SAY: "Bottom line, this game has been bet fairly evenly with our customers but I can see us eventually getting to 6.5 as we get closer to game time." Michael Stewart, Carbonsports.ag

WHY BET UCONN (30-8 SU, 21-15 ATS, 13-22 O/U): Napier, who was named to the Wooden All-American team Monday, nailed a buzzer-beater to give the Huskies a 65-64 home victory over Florida on Dec. 2, capping a 26-point game. Napier hit five 3-pointers in that contest - two more than the entire Gators team - and has been strong from beyond the arc with 12-of-23 finding the bottom of the net in the last three games. DeAndre Daniels provided plenty of support with 27 points and 10 rebounds in the Sweet 16 win over Iowa State and helped keep Connecticut in the game in the first half of the regional final against Michigan State before Napier got going.

WHY BET FLORIDA (36-2 SU, 18-15-1 ATS, 11-22-1 O/U): The Gators are a dominant defensive team and held their four previous NCAA tournament opponents to an average of 55 points, with only UCLA breaking 60 in a 79-68 decision in the Sweet 16. Florida won each of those four games by double figures and had little trouble slowing down Dayton with a full-court press in the regional final. “One of the things I think it all comes down to is on the defensive end of the floor,” Florida coach Billy Donovan told reporters. “It’s very, very difficult to go on runs if you don’t get stops. I think a lot of our runs can be predicated on the fact that defensively we’ve gotten stops, and stops get you out on the break.”

TRENDS:

* Huskies are 13-3 ATS in their last 16 NCAA Tournament games.
* Gators are 7-3 ATS in their last 10 games overall.
* Over is 4-1 in Huskies last five NCAA Tournament games.
* Under is 7-3 in Gators last 10 non-conference games.

COVERS CONSENSUS: 55 percent of wagers are on the Huskies.

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Action Report: Money staying fairly even between Florida and UConn
By JUSTIN HARTLING

The Florida Gators may have been many bracketologists selection to win it all, but bettors have been pretty split between them and the Huskies.

"We opened Florida -6 and really haven’t seen much movement in this game. After opening, we saw a decent amount of Florida money come and we moved quickly to 6.5," explains Micheal Stewart of Carbonsports.ag. After seeing a lot of action shifting to UConn, the line has since moved back down to 6.

"Bottom line, this game has been bet fairly evenly with our customers but I can see us eventually getting to 6.5 as we get closer to game time" says Stewart.

Stewart explains, "As for the total, we opened 124.5 and saw sharp money bet us over as soon as we opened it. We quickly went to 125.5 and eventually 126, before just going straight to 127, the number we’re currently dealing."

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Action Report: Sharp play on Wisconsin, public on Kentucky
By JUSTIN HARTLING

The Wisconsin Badgers are possibly the quietest team in the Final Four. Everyone knows Florida, Kentucky and the underdog Conecticut, but sharp bettors have jumped all over the Badgers early.

"We opened Kentucky a small 2 point favorite vs Wisconsin. Kentucky has become a very ‘public’ team in this tournament, attracting lots of action from our bettors" explains Micheal Stewart of Carbonsports.ag, "As predicted, the public has backed the Kentucky but we’ve also seen very sharp support on Wisconsin."

After a move to Kentucky -2.5, Stewart says "we started to see a bit more money show on Wisconsin and we felt 2.5 was simply too many points in a game we thought was a pick’em, so we went back to 2 and dealt that line for a few days."

The current line sits at the Wildcats -1.5.

"As for the total, we opened 139.5 and we really haven’t had to adjust this total at all. We’re seeing great, two way action and we’ve basically dance between 139 and 140, using 139.5 from time to time as well." explains Stewart.

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Saturday's MLB American League betting cheat sheet

Check out our quick-hitting betting notes for Saturday's American League games:

Minnesota Twins at Cleveland Indians (-157)

Cold pitching stat: Twins right-hander Kyle Gibson allowed hitters to bat .327 in 211 at-bats against him last season.

Hot batting stat: Minnesota catcher/first baseman Joe Mauer hit .333 in 48 at-bats against the Indians in 2013.

Weather: Temperatures will be in the mid-40s with partly cloudy skies and wind blowing from left to right field at 13 mph.

Key betting note: Twins are 2-14 in their last sixteen in the second game of a series.

New York Yankees at Toronto Blue Jays (-108)

Cold pitching stat: Toronto knuckleballer R.A. Dickey was tagged for six runs over five innings in his first start of the season.

Hot batting stat: Yankees outfielder Alfonso Soriano is 5-for-15 with a pair of home runs lifetime versus Dickey.

Weather: N/A

Key betting note: Under is 4-0 in Dickey's last four starts against the Yankees.

Baltimore Orioles at Detroit Tigers (-137)

Hot pitching stat: The Tigers have gone 6-1 in right-hander Rick Porcello's last seven home starts.

Cold batting stat: Detroit third baseman Miguel Cabrera is just 1-for-6 against Orioles starter Bud Norris.

Weather: Temperatures will be in the mid-40s with partly cloudy skies and wind blowing out to left field at 13 mph.

Key betting note: Over is 4-0 in Porcello's last four Saturday starts.

Chicago White Sox at Kansas City Royals (-144)

Hot pitching stat: Royals southpaw Bruce Chen limited right-handed hitters to a .224 average in 299 at-bats last season.

Hot batting stat: White Sox first baseman Paul Konerko has five home runs in 49 all-time at-bats versus Chen.

Weather: Temperatures will be in the low-50s with clear skies and wind blowing out to left field at 7 mph.

Key betting note: White Sox are 1-7 in their last eight games versus a left-handed starter.

Seattle Mariners at Oakland Athletics (+114)

Hot pitching stat: Mariners right-hander Felix Hernandez allowed one run while striking out 11 over six innings to win his first start of the year.

Cold batting stat: Athletics outfielder Josh Reddick is a .148 hitter in 27 at-bats against Hernandez.

Weather: Temperatures will be in the low-60s under sunny skies with wind blowing out to right field at 7 mph.

Key betting note: Mariners are 4-0 in their last four games against a left-handed starter.

Los Angeles Angels at Houston Astros (+127)

Cold pitching stat: Astros left-hander Dallas Keuchel was 2-0 but posted a 6.50 ERA in 18 innings against the Angels last season.

Hot batting stat: Angels outfielder Mike Trout hit .297 with 16 walks in 64 at-bats against Houston in 2013.

Weather: Temperatures will be in the mid-60s with a 60 percent chance of thunderstorms and wind blowing from right to left field at 7 mph.

Key betting note: Astros are 1-7 in Keuchel's last eight starts.

Texas Rangers at Tampa Bay Rays (-177)

Hot pitching stat: The Rays are 5-1 in left-hander David Price's previous six home starts.

Hot batting stat: White Sox outfielder Alex Rios is 11-for-27 with two home runs lifetime against Price.

Weather: N/A

Key betting note: Under is 4-1 in Price's last five starts versus the Rangers.

Interleague

Milwaukee Brewers at Boston Red Sox (-173)

Hot pitching stat: Rex Sox right-hander Clay Buchholz limited opponents to a .199 average in his breakout 2013 campaign.

Cold batting stat: Boston designated hitter David Ortiz hit just .236 in 68 interleague at-bats a season ago.

Weather: Temperatures will be in the mid-40s with partly cloudy skies and wind blowing out to right field at 13 mph.

Key betting note: Red Sox are 9-2 in Buchholz's last 11 home starts.

** Odds, stats, weather forecast and probable pitchers as of 7:25 p.m. ET Friday.

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Saturday's MLB National League betting cheat sheet

Check out our quick-hitting betting notes for Saturday's National League games:

Cincinnati Reds at New York Mets (+125)

Cold pitching stat: Mets right-hander Dillon Gee surrendered four runs over 6 2/3 innings en route to a no-decision in his season debut.

Hot batting stat: Members of the Cincinnati roster are hitting a collective .316 with three homers against Gee.

Weather: Temperatures will be in the mid-40s under partly cloudy skies with wind blowing from left to right field at 15 mph.

Key betting stat: Reds are 24-9 in starter Johnny Cueto's last 33 appearances following a quality start in his previous outing.

Philadelphia Phillies at Chicago Cubs (+119)

Hot pitching stat: Cubs right-hander Jeff Samardzija twirled seven shutout innings in his season-opening start against Pittsburgh.

Cold batting stat: Chicago shortstop Starlin Castro has struck out six times in 12 at-bats against Phillies lefty Cliff Lee.

Weather: Temperatures will be in the mid-40s with sunny skies and wind blowing in from left field at 6 mph.

Key betting stat: Phillies are 2-8 in Lee's last 10 starts against the National League Central.

San Francisco Giants at Los Angeles Dodgers (+102)

Hot pitching stat: Giants lefty Madison Bumgarner held opponents to a .203 batting average in 2013.

Cold batting stat: Dodgers outfielder Matt Kemp is just 4-for-19 lifetime versus Bumgarner.

Weather: Temperatures will be in the low-70s with clear skies and wind blowing out to right-center field at 9 mph.

Key betting stat: Giants are 4-1 in Bumgarner's last five starts versus the Dodgers.

St. Louis Cardinals at Pittsburgh Pirates (-137)

Hot pitching stat: Pittsburgh is 10-1 in left-hander Francisco Liriano's previous 11 home starts.

Cold batting stat: Cardinals outfielder Matt Holliday hit .298 but had just one homer in 121 at-bats versus left-handed pitchers in 2013.

Weather: Temperatures will be in the low-40s under sunny skies with wind blowing out to right field at 6 mph.

Key betting stat: Over is 4-0 in St. Louis starter Joe Kelly's last four meetings with Pittsburgh.

Atlanta Braves at Washington Nationals (-167)

Hot pitching stat: Nationals right-hander Stephen Strasburg racked up 10 strikeouts over six innings in his first start of 2014.

Hot batting stat: Braves second baseman Dan Uggla is a .407 hitter with two home runs and eight RBIs in 27 at-bats versus Strasburg.

Weather: Temperatures will be in the low-50s with clear skies and wind blowing in from left field at 7 mph.

Key betting stat: Nationals are 1-6 in their last seven games with umpire Jim Joyce behind home plate.

San Diego Padres at Miami Marlins (-144)

Hot pitching stat: Marlins right-hander is 9-0 with a 1.19 ERA in 15 career starts at Marlins Park.

Cold batting stat: Members of the Florida roster are batting just .205 in 39 at-bats against Padres starter Andrew Cashner.

Weather: Temperatures will be in the high-70s with sunny skies and wind blowing out to center field at 8 mph.

Key betting stat: Under is 8-1-1 in San Diego's last 10 in the second game of a series.

Arizona Diamondbacks at Colorado Rockies (-134)

Hot pitching stat: Rockies lefty Jorge De La Rosa went 10-1 with a 2.76 ERA in 14 home starts a season ago.

Hot batting stat: Diamondbacks first baseman Paul Goldschmidt hit .288 with four home runs and 18 RBIs in 73 at-bats against Colorado in 2013.

Weather: Temperatures will be in the low-50s with cloudy skies and wind blowing in from center field at 5 mph.

Key betting stat: Rockies are 9-0 in De La Rosa's last nine home starts versus Arizona.

** Odds, stats, weather forecast and probable pitchers as of 7:30 p.m. ET Friday.

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SATURDAY, APRIL 5 Time Posted: 7:30 a.m. EST (3/31)

Game 813-814: Connecticut vs. Florida (6:09 p.m. EST) Dunkel Ratings: Connecticut 73.884; Florida 75.456 Dunkel Line: Florida by 1 1/2; 121 Vegas Line: Florida by 6 1/2; 126 1/2 Dunkel Pick: Connecticut (+6 1/2); Under

Game 815-816: Kentucky vs. Wisconsin (8:49 p.m. EST) Dunkel Ratings: Kentucky 77.872; Wisconsin 73.409 Dunkel Line: Kentucky by 4 1/2; 143 Vegas Line: Kentucky by 2; 139 Dunkel Pick: Kentucky (-2); Over

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spartan | CBB Sides Sat, 04/05/14 - 8:49 PM
triple-dime bet 815 Kentucky -2.0 (-110) 5dimes vs 816 Wisconsin
Analysis: Cashed last time out with the young Wildcats as they hung on and knocked off a very, very solid Michigan club. What I see here guys is a young, young team that is bursting at the seams with talent and most importantly, coming together and peaking at the exact perfect time. I cannot begin to stress enou¦gh just how much respect I have for Bo Ryan and the Wisconsin program. Hell, I'd love to see them hoisting the hardware and taking this whole thing. But, the stubborn fact is I cannot, and never do let fan emotion enter into any handicapping. There is no faster way to bust our your roll than falling into that lethal habit. Some people will point to the youth of this Kentucky ball club and view that as a liability. Frankly I see it quite the opposite. Sometimes it's good to be young and not grasping the extent of a situation. I hope that makes sense. These kids are just playing ball and having the time of their lives. I don't see a tense team out there on the floor. I see some youngsters playing with swagger and doing what they love to do most. With all due respect to Coach Ryan's Badgers I suspect this Wildcat team is simply too athletic for them to take down. Wisconsin is a stubborn, gritty ball club that is extremely well coached. They will represent well here. But much like the others in this tourney before them, they will fall after a valiant effort. I actually would bet the Cat's here and lay up to 5 points if I had to.
Now, one final note. My regular clients know this drill by heart. I don't do locks. Just not my thing. Yes, I love this game and our chances but a key player, or two, could go down five minutes into this thing guys. Shit happens. It's sports and I don't give a damn what the carnival barker types tout, there are NO locks in sports betting. I implore you to use self discipline and money management. I say bet this one a couple notches more than a regular triple but don't get crazy. I don't mean to sound preachy. But think of it this way, if I didn't give a damn about my customers would I take the time. Hell, I'd just load the play and move on. I do very much care. We're in this for the long haul guys. And without the self discipline and money management principles the bettors have zero chance. None. I was a bookie for years. Seen this movie a thousand times.
Okay, that is it. My one and only March Madness Game of the Year. I'm putting it in the hands of the young Kentucky Wildcats. Many sincere thanks as always fellas. Best of luck to us and enjoy the game!

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PhillyGodFather

Game 815 Kentucky ML

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Goodfella

3.5* Kentucky (ML)

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NCAAB

Saturday, April 5

Saturday's CBI game
Faster-paced game in Game 2 favored Fresno squad that went 35-43 on foul line in easy (led by 26 with 13:45 left) 89-75 win; Bulldogs scored a ridiculously good 1.31 ppp, making 15-21 inside arc, 8-15 outside. Siena is at home, but playing in on-campus gym rather than downtown arena. Saints trailed Game 1 by 6 at half in Fresno, held Bulldogs to 25 points in second half- road team won both series games. Siena won eight of last ten games, Fresno won 13 of last 17. 11:30 local tipoff time is 8:30 PT. Siena will have home crowd behind then in 4,000-seat arena, but it was not much of a help in Game 2. Four different Bulldogs took 8+ FTs in Game 2. Fresno took total of 13 foul shots in Game 1.

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Steve Fezzik

Triple Dime Under 138.5 Fresno State/Siena

Dime 816 Wisconsin 2.0 (-115) bodog vs 815 Kentucky

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LV SPORTSLINE POD

Wisconsin +1.5

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King Creole

Triple Dime Under UConn/Florida