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Kentucky or Wisconsin? Who covers in Final Four
Kentucky Wildcats vs. Wisconsin Badgers (+1.5, 139)
THREE REASONS KENTUCKY COVERS
Familiarity with Big Ten
Kentucky will already be prepared for the Big Ten style of basketball when it takes on Wisconsin Saturday. The Wildcats beat Big Ten regular season champions Michigan with a last second three pointer in the Elite Eight and showed that their athleticism is a distinct advantage. Wisconsin may have split the season series with Michigan, but after besting a Wolverines squad that won the Big Ten quite easily this year Kentucky deserves to be the favorite for the second-straight game against Big Ten opposition.
Improved shooting
In their three tournament wins over higher-seeded opponents in Wichita State, Louisville and Michigan, the Wildcats shot over their season average from the field. In two of those games (Wichita State, Michigan) Kentucky shot well over 50 percent, which allowed it to outscore two of the best perimeter shooting teams in the country to get to the Final Four. With their rebounding advantage and interior presence in Julius Randle, when Kentucky is hitting its shots, the Wildcats become nearly impossible to put away, as the Wolverines found out when their double digit lead quickly evaporated Sunday.
Marcus Lee
The freshman who scored just eight points since January came up in a big way for the Wildcats against Michigan, scoring 10 points and putting up eight rebounds off the bench in the absence of Willie Cauley-Stein. Already holding a +6.8 rebounding margin advantage over the Badgers, having another big man like Lee who can jump out of the building and put back misses above the rim will help the Wildcats' chances - especially if the questionable Cauley-Stein can contribute minutes. Having four post players that can slow Wisconsin star-center Frank Kaminsky would give Kentucky head coach John Calipari a significant advantage on the inside.
THREE REASONS WISCONSIN COVERS
Frank Kaminsky
The gangly, 7-foot junior center can do it all, and the boxscores prove it, particularly in the last two games. In the West Regional semifinal against Baylor, Kaminsky scored 19 points on 8-of-11 shooting from the floor and a 3-for-4 effort at the free-throw line. But perhaps the larger contribution was his six blocked shots, and he also had four rebounds in a 69-52 blowout, with the Badgers a 4-point favorite.
In Saturday’s regional final against No. 1 seed Arizona, he scored 28 points in just about every way possible – 16 on 2-pointers, nine via a 3-for-5 effort from 3-point range, and another three from the free throw line. And he also had seven offensive boards among his 11 total rebounds as Wisconsin pulled out the 64-63 overtime win as a 3.5-point pup.
Points in the paint
Although the Badgers were outscored 30-26 in the lane against Arizona, in their four-game run to the Final Four, they have put up 118 points in the paint, while allowing 84. Wisconsin rarely settles for bad shots.
Stepping up versus big teams
This team has consistently risen to the challenge against major talent. As Michael Beller of SI.com pointed out, the Badgers are the only team in the country to beat the regular-season champions from the Big Ten, SEC, ACC and Pac 12. That includes SU and ATS victories over three of the NCAA Tournament’s four No. 1 seeds: a 59-53 win over Florida as a 5.5-point home chalk in the second game of the year; a 48-38 win at Virginia catching 4 points in December; and last weekend’s 64-63 OT win against Arizona as a 3.5-point ‘dog to reach the Final Four. The Badgers also posted a 75-62 February win as 4-point pups at Michigan – which reached the Elite Eight before losing to Kentucky last weekend.
Kentucky Wildcats vs. Wisconsin Badgers (+1.5, 139)
THREE REASONS KENTUCKY COVERS
Familiarity with Big Ten
Kentucky will already be prepared for the Big Ten style of basketball when it takes on Wisconsin Saturday. The Wildcats beat Big Ten regular season champions Michigan with a last second three pointer in the Elite Eight and showed that their athleticism is a distinct advantage. Wisconsin may have split the season series with Michigan, but after besting a Wolverines squad that won the Big Ten quite easily this year Kentucky deserves to be the favorite for the second-straight game against Big Ten opposition.
Improved shooting
In their three tournament wins over higher-seeded opponents in Wichita State, Louisville and Michigan, the Wildcats shot over their season average from the field. In two of those games (Wichita State, Michigan) Kentucky shot well over 50 percent, which allowed it to outscore two of the best perimeter shooting teams in the country to get to the Final Four. With their rebounding advantage and interior presence in Julius Randle, when Kentucky is hitting its shots, the Wildcats become nearly impossible to put away, as the Wolverines found out when their double digit lead quickly evaporated Sunday.
Marcus Lee
The freshman who scored just eight points since January came up in a big way for the Wildcats against Michigan, scoring 10 points and putting up eight rebounds off the bench in the absence of Willie Cauley-Stein. Already holding a +6.8 rebounding margin advantage over the Badgers, having another big man like Lee who can jump out of the building and put back misses above the rim will help the Wildcats' chances - especially if the questionable Cauley-Stein can contribute minutes. Having four post players that can slow Wisconsin star-center Frank Kaminsky would give Kentucky head coach John Calipari a significant advantage on the inside.
THREE REASONS WISCONSIN COVERS
Frank Kaminsky
The gangly, 7-foot junior center can do it all, and the boxscores prove it, particularly in the last two games. In the West Regional semifinal against Baylor, Kaminsky scored 19 points on 8-of-11 shooting from the floor and a 3-for-4 effort at the free-throw line. But perhaps the larger contribution was his six blocked shots, and he also had four rebounds in a 69-52 blowout, with the Badgers a 4-point favorite.
In Saturday’s regional final against No. 1 seed Arizona, he scored 28 points in just about every way possible – 16 on 2-pointers, nine via a 3-for-5 effort from 3-point range, and another three from the free throw line. And he also had seven offensive boards among his 11 total rebounds as Wisconsin pulled out the 64-63 overtime win as a 3.5-point pup.
Points in the paint
Although the Badgers were outscored 30-26 in the lane against Arizona, in their four-game run to the Final Four, they have put up 118 points in the paint, while allowing 84. Wisconsin rarely settles for bad shots.
Stepping up versus big teams
This team has consistently risen to the challenge against major talent. As Michael Beller of SI.com pointed out, the Badgers are the only team in the country to beat the regular-season champions from the Big Ten, SEC, ACC and Pac 12. That includes SU and ATS victories over three of the NCAA Tournament’s four No. 1 seeds: a 59-53 win over Florida as a 5.5-point home chalk in the second game of the year; a 48-38 win at Virginia catching 4 points in December; and last weekend’s 64-63 OT win against Arizona as a 3.5-point ‘dog to reach the Final Four. The Badgers also posted a 75-62 February win as 4-point pups at Michigan – which reached the Elite Eight before losing to Kentucky last weekend.
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