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NCAA Basketball Picks
Kentucky vs. Connecticut
The Wildcats (29-10) advanced to Monday's final with a last-second win over Wisconsin and come into the contest with Connecticut (31-8) carrying a 7-0-1 ATS record in their last 8 games versus teams with a winning percentage above .600. Kentucky is the pick (-2 1/2) according to Dunkel, which has the Wildcats favored by 5. Dunkel Pick: Kentucky (-2 1/2). Here are all of today's games.
MONDAY, APRIL 7
Time Posted: 7:30 a.m. EST (4/6)Game 601-602: Kentucky vs. Connecticut (9:10 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Kentucky 79.361; Connecticut 74.229
Dunkel Line: Kentucky by 5; 131
Vegas Line: Kentucky by 2 1/2; 135
Dunkel Pick: Kentucky (-2 1/2); Under -
NCAA Championship opening line report: Kentucky opens as 3-point fave
By COLIN KELLY
With a No. 8 seed facing a No. 7 seed for college basketball’s national championship Monday night, everybody’s office pool brackets are in tatters.
But therein lies the beauty of the NCAA Tournament: at least you can still bet on it.
No. 7 seed Connecticut knocked off overall No. 1 seed Florida 63-53 as a 7-point underdog Saturday to open the Final Four, and No. 8 seed Kentucky followed with a thrilling 74-73 win over No. 2 seed Wisconsin as a 1-point favorite.
Just as Kentucky pretty much had to be the favorite against Wisconsin – based on its huge run through the tournament on the backs of a bunch of freshman – the Wildcats will be favored against the Huskies. The opening line was set at -3, with the total between 132.5 and 133.5 for Monday’s finale at AT&T Stadium, home of the Dallas Cowboys.
“The reason we are favoring the Wildcats is that, while UConn has the better backcourt, Kentucky has the much better frontcourt, even if Willey Cauley-Stein isn’t playing,” said Sportsbook.com oddsmaker Mike Perry, who posted a 132.5 total.
Cauley-Stein was hurt in the Wildcats’ Sweet 16 win over instate rival Louisville, but it hasn’t mattered – particularly with the insane late-game antics of guard Aaron Harrison, whose 3-pointer knocked out Michigan in the Elite Eight, and whose 3-pointer from nearly the same spot eliminated the Badgers on Saturday night.
Golden Nugget sports book director Tony Miller joined Perry in making Kentucky a 3-point chalk, though he pegged the total a point higher at 133.5. But Miller doesn’t think the public will follow the favorite.
“The way UConn has been playing, I think the public takes the dog,” Miller said. “How long can Kentucky rely on a 3-pointer at the buzzer?”
UConn guards Shabazz Napier and Ryan Boatright have impressed Perry, and against Florida, the duo combined for 25 points, nine assists, nine rebounds and five steals, with just three turnovers. But Perry is sold on Harrison, saying the clutch shooter makes the backcourt matchup much less of a mismatch.
“Napier and Boatright have been exceptional all tournament, but Harrison keeps hitting clutch shots for the ‘Cats, so the disparity in talent with the guards is much closer than it is for the big men, with UK having a decided advantage,” Perry said.Comment
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National championship game props
By ANDREW CALEY
We are down to the final game of the college basketball season and if you're looking to get your final fix for betting college hoops we have the game props you'll want (courtesy LVH Superboook) for the national championship game featuring Kentucky and Connecticut.
TOTAL 3 POINT FIELD GOALS MADE BY: BOTH TEAMS
OVER 11.5 -110
UNDER 11.5 -110
LARGEST LEAD OF THE GAME BY: EITHER TEAM
OVER 12.5 -110
UNDER 12.5 -110
TEAM TO MAKE FIRST 3 POINT FIELD GOAL
KENTUCKY +120
U CONN -140
TEAM TO SCORE 5 POINTS FIRST
KENTUCKY -110
U CONN -110
TEAM TO SCORE 10 POINTS FIRST
KENTUCKY -115
U CONN -105
TEAM TO SCORE 15 POINTS FIRST
KENTUCKY -120
U CONN EVEN
TEAM TO SCORE 20 POINTS FIRST
KENTUCKY -125
U CONN +105
TOTAL POINTS BY: JULIUS RANDLE (KENTUCKY)
OVER 15.5 -110
UNDER 15.5 -110
TOTAL REBOUNDS BY: JULIUS RANDLE (KENTUCKY)
OVER 10.5 -110
UNDER 10.5 -110
TOTAL FREE THROWS MADE BY: JULIUS RANDLE (KENTUCKY)
OVER 4.5 -110
UNDER 4.5 -110
TOTAL POINTS BY: JAMES YOUNG (KENTUCKY)
OVER 13.5 -110
UNDER 13.5 -110
TOTAL FREE THROWS MADE BY: JAMES YOUNG (KENTUCKY)
OVER 3.0 +120
UNDER 3.0 -14
TOTAL POINTS BY: AARON HARRISON (KENTUCKY)
OVER 14.5 -110
UNDER 14.5 -110
TOTAL FREE THROWS MADE BY: AARON HARRISON (KENTUCKY)
OVER 3.5 -110
UNDER 3.5 -110Comment
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UConn or Kentucky? Who will cover the national championship?
The Connecticut Huskies and the Kentucky Wildcats will do battle for the national championship Monday and for sports bettors it's the last opportunity to cash in on college hoops.
Our writers have been following these two teams throughout March Madness and now debate who will cut down the nets as champions, giving three reasons why the Huskies or Wildcats not only wins but covers in Monday’s NCAA Tournament final.
Connecticut Huskies vs. Kentucky Wildcats (-3, 135)
WHY CONNECTICUT WILL COVER
Free Throws
The Huskies are shooting a blistering 86.7 percent from the stripe in their five victories - and that should put a major scare into the Wildcats, who haven't won any tournament game by more than seven points despite opponents shooting a woeful 70.1 percent from the line. Take out Wisconsin's 19-for-20 showing in their Final Four encounter, and that number dips to 62.7.
3-Point Defense
UConn's perimeter defense has been outstanding so far in the tournament, limiting the opposition 33.6 percent from 3-point range. The Huskies frustrated the Gators into a 1-for-10 showing from beyond the arc in their Final Four showdown, and could enjoy similar success against a Kentucky team that ranks ninth in the SEC in 3-point shooting and had just five long-range attempts against Wisconsin.
DeAndre Daniels
Much of the big-man focus in this one will be on Wildcats star Julius Randle - and with good reason. But Daniels has had an outstanding tournament in his own right, averaging 17.6 points and 7.4 rebounds. He erupted for 20 points and 10 boards in the win over Florida - the first player to do so in a national semifinal since Carmelo Anthony in 2003 - and should make life difficult for Parker on both ends of the floor.
WHY KENTUCKY WILL COVER
Clutch play
In their road to the National Championship the Wildcats have been absolute money in close games as all of their wins have game within five points and their last two wins came at the hands of buzzer beating threes by Aaron Harrison to keep Kentucky alive. If you want to put your faith in a game that is likely going to come down to some sort of run down the stretch the Wildcats have shown nerves of steel despite being led by freshman.
Battle Tested
Kentucky perhaps took the toughest road to the Final Four in history by defeating undefeated Wichita State before knocking off the 2013 National Championship Finalists in Louisville and Michigan before beating Wisconsin in the semifinal. UCONN's wins over Michigan State and Florida are nothing to scoff at, but Kentucky is arguably the more battle tested of the two teams based on the teams they have came across in their bracket.
Size
It gets repetitive and annoying to talk about the Wildcats interior edge, but that is because it is such a huge talking point in any breakdown involving Kentucky. The Wildcats are 7th in the nation in rebounding and for the third straight game will be facing a school well outside of the Top 150 in the 165th ranked Huskies. With a +42 rebounding margin it is no wonder that the Wildcats rebounding is a well talked about factor. That edge gives Kentucky extra possessions and easy baskets at the rim which helps their chances of covering as three point favorites.Comment
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Kentucky's Cauley-Stein out for national title game
By ANDREW CALEY
Kentucky center Willie Cauley-Stein will miss Mondays national championship versus Connecticut game due to an ankle injury.
The 7-foot Cauley-Stein injured his ankle in the tournament opener against Kansas State and then re-injured it the Wildcats' game against Louisville.
The sophomore center averaged seven points and 6.2 rebounds and 2.9 blocks per game this season.Comment
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National championship betting preview: Connecticut vs. Kentucky
Connecticut Huskies vs. Kentucky Wildcats (-3, 135)
Connecticut has a strong chance at its second National Championship in four years, it just has to find a way to chase Aaron Harrison off the 3-point line late in the game. Harrison and No. 8 seed Kentucky aim for the school’s second championship in three years when they face off against the Huskies in the final on Monday in North Texas. Harrison’s clutch shooting lifted the Wildcats to victory in the Regional Final and the Final Four triumph over Wisconsin.
Connecticut has a guard with just as much experience in the clutch in Shabazz Napier, who dominated the second half of the Regional Final win over Michigan State and continues to come through at the line late in games. The seventh-seeded Huskies controlled the top overall seed in their 63-53 Final Four victory over Florida on Saturday and had no trouble neutralizing Michigan State and Florida’s advantage on the interior in either of the last two games. Connecticut moved the Spartans’ Adreian Payne away from the basket in the Regional Final with its smaller lineup and will attempt to do the same when Kentucky throws another challenge at the frontcourt in star freshman Julius Randle.
TV: 9:10 p.m. ET, CBS
LINE HISTORY: Kentucky opened as 3-point faves, were bet down to -2.5, but are back to -3.
INJURY REPORT: Connecticut: G Pat Lenehan - questionable (undisclosed). Kentucky: F Willie Cauley-Stein - questionable (ankle).
WHAT SHARPS SAY: "Kentucky received a scare on Saturday night when forward Alex Poythress injured his leg during the post-game celebration. Poythress was seen with ice on his knee and limping off the court, however he said he was "fine and ready to play" in the post-game press conference. His status is important because Kentucky is currently without center Willie Cauley-Stein," says Covers Expert Steve Merril.
WHAT BOOKS SAY: "Got sharp bet on UConn +3 less than 15 minutes after we opened so we moved Kentucky to -2.5, where line still remains. We also got sharp bet on over 133 and the total now stands at 135.5," says Mike Perry of Sportsbook.ag.
WHY BET CONNECTICUT (31-8, 22-15 ATS): The Huskies were not even eligible for the postseason in coach Kevin Ollie’s first chance last year but seem to remember exactly how to win in the NCAA Tournament with a defense that continues to confound on the perimeter with Ryan Boatright’s on-ball pressure at the top of the key. Napier and Boatright form a much smaller backcourt than the Harrison twins on the other side but attack the paint relentlessly and aren’t afraid to pull the trigger from beyond the arc. The big difference for the team in the Tournament has been the play of DeAndre Daniels, who went for 20 points and 10 rebounds against Florida and has averaged 17.6 points in five games. “He played well for us,” Napier told reporters of Daniels. “It is good to have him there because his shots help all of us out, and we know that he is going to come in and take care of it.”
WHY BET KENTUCKY (29-10, 19-15-3 ATS): The last time a team that started five freshmen made the National Championship game, Michigan’s Fab Five took a halftime lead against Duke before falling by 20 points. The Wildcats are maturing with each passing game and did not panic when falling behind against Wisconsin on Saturday. Harrison made only one 3-point attempt in the Final Four contest but knocked it down with 5.7 seconds left, just like the go-ahead 3-pointer he sank with 2.3 seconds remaining against Michigan and the go-ahead 3-pointer he hit versus Louisville with 39 seconds to play in the Sweet 16. “You can’t be scared to miss and you want to be that guy that wants to take the big shot,” Harrison told reporters. “It’s just the feeling that I want to be the one to take the shot, and I’m not afraid to miss the shot.”
TRENDS:
* Underdog is 4-0 ATS in the last four meetings.
* Kentucky is 5-0-1 ATS in its last six NCAA Tournament games.
* Connecticut is 5-0 ATS in its last five games overall.
* Under is 9-2 Connecticut's last 11 games following a straight up win.
COVERS CONSENSUS: Fifty-eight percent of the wagers are on Connecticut +3.Comment
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Monday's MLB betting cheat sheet
Check out our quick-hitting betting notes for Monday's Major League Baseball games:
American League
Baltimore Orioles at New York Yankees (-142. 8.5)
Cold pitching stat: Yankees right-hander Hiroki Kuroda went 1-4 with a 4.88 ERA in six starts against the Orioles.
Cold batting stat: Baltimore shortstop J.J. Hardy is 3-for-20 lifetime versus Kuroda.
Weather: Temperatures will be in the mid-50s with partly cloudy skies and wind blowing out to left field at 13 mph.
Key betting note: Orioles are 2-8 in their last 10 games as an underdog.
Los Angeles Angels at Houston Astros (137, 8.5)
Cold pitching stat: Angels left-hander C.J. Wilson was tagged for six runs on eight hits over 5 2/3 innings in his season debut.
Hot batting stat: Los Angeles outfielder Mike Trout is hitting .352 against members of the Houston pitching staff.
Weather: Temperatures will be in the low-70s under partly cloudy skies with wind blowing in from left field at 8 mph.
Key betting note: Angels are 14-4 in Wilson's last 18 starts as a road favorite.
Oakland Athletics at Minnesota Twins (122, 8)
Hot pitching stat: Athletics southpaw Scott Kazmir threw 7 1/3 innings of three-hit shutout ball to win his first start of the year.
Cold batting stat: Twins outfielder Josh Willingham is 3-for-17 with seven strikeouts in his career against Kazmir.
Weather: Temperatures will be in the low-50s with cloud skies and wind blowing from left to right field at 7 mph.
Key betting note: Twins are 1-8 in their last nine home games versus a left-handed starter.
Texas Rangers at Boston Red Sox (-153, 9)
Hot pitching stat: Red Sox right-hander John Lackey went 6-3 with a 2.47 ERA in 13 home starts a season ago.
Cold batting stat: Texas third baseman Adrian Beltre is hitting .213 with 14 strikeouts in 61 at-bats versus Lackey.
Weather: Temperatures will be in the low-50s with partly cloudy skies and wind blowing out to left field at 7 mph.
Key betting note: Rangers are 2-10 in their last 12 series-opening games.
Tampa Bay Rays at Kansas City Royals (111, 8)
Hot pitching stat: Rays lefty Matt Moore was sensational on the road last season, going 10-1 with a 2.74 ERA in 16 starts.
Cold batting stat: Tampa Bay third baseman Evan Longoria is batting .235 in 17 at-bats against Royals starter Jason Vargas.
Weather: Temperatures will be in the mid-50s with a 41 percent chance of rain and wind blowing out to right field at 7 mph.
Key betting note: Rays are 10-1 in Moore's last 11 starts as a road favorite.
National League
Milwaukee Brewers at Philadelphia Phillies (OFF)
Hot pitching stat: Brewers right-hander Kyle Lohse threw eight innings of one-run ball in his only start against the Phillies in 2013.
Hot batting stat: Milwaukee outfielder Ryan Braun hit 9-for-24 against Philadelphia last season.
Weather: Temperatures will be in the low-50s with a 75 percent chance of rain and wind blowing out of left field at 8 mph.
Key betting note: Over is 5-1 in the last six meetings in Philadelphia.
Cincinnati Reds at St. Louis Cardinals (-143, 7)
Hot pitching stat: Reds lefty Tony Cingrani allowed just two hits while striking out nine over seven shutout innings in his 2014 debut.
Cold batting stat: Members of the St. Louis roster are a combined 8-for-45 with 16 strikeouts versus Cingrani.
Weather: Temperatures will be in the high-40s with rain in the forecast and wind blowing from left to right field at 15 mph.
Key betting note: Reds are 16-6 in their last 22 Monday games.
Interleague
San Diego Padres at Cleveland Indians (-141, 8)
Cold pitching stat: Indians right-hander Corey Kluber was tagged for five runs on eight hits over 3 1/3 frames in his previous start.
Cold batting stat: Padres outfielder Seth Smith - the only San Diego player to face Kluber - is 0-for-3 with three strikeouts against him.
Weather: Temperatures will be in the low-50s with rain expected throughout the day and wind blowing from right to left field at 16 mph.
Key betting note: Indians are 8-1 in Kluber's last nine home starts.
Chicago White Sox at Colorado Rockies (-127, 10)
Cold pitching stat: Rockies right-hander Jordan Lyles was charged with four runs on five innings in his first start of the year.
Hot batting stat: Members of the Chicago roster are hitting 9-for-20 against Lyles.
Weather: Temperatures will be in the low-50s with partly cloudy skies and wind blowing in from left field at 12 mph.
Key betting note: Rockies are 5-22 in their last 27 interleague games against a right-handed starter.
** Odds, stats, weather forecast and pitching matchup as of 3 p.m. Sunday.Comment
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MLB
Hot pitchers
-- Milwaukee-Philly game has been postponed until Tuesday.
-- Wacha is 5-1, 1.76 in his last seven starts. Cingrani is 2-3, 2.48 in his last six.
-- Jimenez is 4-1, 1.90 in his last seven starts.
-- Cosart is 1-1, 2.37 in his last ten starts.
-- Kazmir is 3-0, 0.44 in his last three starts.
-- Lackey is 3-1, 2.10 in his last four starts.
-- Vargas is 1-1, 2.01 in his last three starts.
-- Erlin is 2-1, 1.97 in his last five starts.
-- Paulino is 2-0, 1.72 in his last six starts.
Cold pitchers
-- Kuroda is 0-4, 5.70 in his last four starts.
-- Wilson is 0-3, 5.40 in his last three starts.
-- Correia is 0-3, 4.20 in his last five starts.
-- Scheppers allowed seven runs in four IP in his first MLB start.
-- Moore is 1-2, 11.74 in his last three starts.
-- Kluber is 1-1, 11.42 in his last couple starts.
-- Lyles is 1-2, 15.88 in his last three starts.
Totals
-- Over is 5-1-1 in Wacha's last seven starts.
-- Seven of last nine Jimenez starts stayed under the total.
-- Over is 4-1-1 in Wilson's last six starts.
-- Last three Kazmir starts stayed under the total.
-- Under is 3-0-1 in last four Lackey starts.
-- Under is 4-1-1 in last six Royal games; three of last four Tampa Bay games went over.
-- Last five Erlin starts stayed under the total.
-- Seven of last eight Paulino starts stayed under; eight of last nine Lyles starts went over the total.
Hot teams
-- Bronx won three of its last four games.
-- Twins won three of their last four games.
-- Tampa Bay won three of its last four games.
Cold teams
-- Reds lost three of their last four games.
-- Orioles lost four of their last five games.
-- Astros lost three of their last four games.
-- Red Sox lost their last three games.
-- San Diego lost four of its last five games.
-- White Sox lost three of their last four games.Comment
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NHL
Hot teams
-- Flames won five of their last eight games. Devils won three of last four.
-- Minnesota won three of its last four games.
Cold teams
-- Winnipeg lost five of its last eight games.
-- Vancouver lost three of its last four games. Ducks lost their last two games, 4-2/5-2.
Totals
-- Five of last seven Calgary games stayed under.
-- Five of last six Winnipeg games went over total.
-- Five of last six Anaheim games went over total.
Series records
-- Flames won three of last four games with New Jersey.
-- Minnesota beat the Jets three out of four games this season.
-- Ducks won their last five games with Vancouver.Comment
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Baseball Crusher
Houston Astros +137 over LA Angels
(System Record: 6-0, won last game)
Overall Record: 6-2
Hockey Crusher
Anaheim Ducks + Vancouver Canucks UNDER 5.5
(System Record: 86-4, won last 3 games)
Overall Record: 86-71-1
Basketball Crusher
Kentucky -150 over Connecticut
(System Record: 72-8, won last 5 games)
Overall Record: 72-82-5
Soccer Crusher
Estudiantes LP + Argentinos Juniors UNDER 2
This match is happening in Argentina
(System Record: 546-20, won last game)
Overall Record: 546-473-80
Here are the rest of his baseball, hockey and basketball plays for today...
Baseball
Tampa Bay Rays -118 over KC
Boston Red Sox -155 over Texas
Colorado Rockies -125 over Chicago WhiteSox
Hockey
New Jersey Devils -155 over Calgary Flames
Winnipeg Jets + Minnesota Wild OVER 5
Winnipeg Jets -105 over Minnesota Wild
Basketball
Connecticut + Kentucky OVER 134.5Comment
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Hondo
YANKEES
RAYSComment
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Cappers Access
UConn +2.5Comment
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Free Selection from Arthur Ralph Sports
Free Play MON SL Cards -150Comment
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Gamblers Data
Free Plays Monday
NYY -150
Red Sox -155Comment
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