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double-dime bet – 964 KAN / 963 TAM – UNDER 8
Analysis: First, the weather. Shouldn’t be too cold, but showers in the area most of the morning mean wet, and reasonable cross-wind tonight. Vargas shut down the Tigers in Detroit with only five hits and one run in seven innings, which is obviously very good. He gave up more flyball outs than I’d like, but that was the Tigers. He has pitched well against most of the Rays (especially Longoria) so if he’s careful with the likes of Loney and Zobrist we’ll be fine. It’s the Rays first road game, and after traveling yesterday. The Royals haven’t been tearing the cover off he ball like they did in the Spring, and Moore is not the answer for that. Kansas City just doesn’t usually hit LHP well (see our play on Sale yesterday) and believe it or not Moore was far better on the road last season. Both bullpens have been very good, and I trust them (more than others, at least). Only one of the Royals first five games has eclipsed eight runs, so why should they start now? And three of the four games in the Trop against the Rangers went over, so it’s clearly time for the Rays to regress, IMO. Especially on the road
This one will go to 7.5 I am virtually positive...so GET DOWN ASAP. At 7.5, it's a 1* play...but MOST books (5 Dimes, Greek, Pinnacle, Sportbooks, BOL) still dealing 8s.
Been riding both of these teams, so which way do we turn? So TOUGH. Obviously have to make a pick on the game since it is the CHAMPIONSHIP, but not stoked about it. Just being honest. Have had a super run in the tournament, and would normally take a pass, but if I did, you guys would RIP me to pieces. So, I'll grab Kentucky at -2.5 points over Connecticut, and look to buy a hook, bringing the line down to -2. Both teams are on fabulous runs, both have coaches that are rocking the party, so where is the edge? Just looks like the Wildcats have NOT even played their best game yet. If they do, we are at BLOWOUT CITY. However, one caveat. If you find out during the day that Kentucky forward Alex Poythress is not gonna play, or is just like 50%, scratch this pick, and look for UConn. Of course, we would advise you to buy the hook with the Huskies and push the line to +3. Long story short, it's half a Benjamin on the Caliparis.
Greg Shaker | CBB Total Mon, 04/07/14 - 9:10 PM
double-dime bet 601 Kentucky / 602 UConn Over 133.0 5dimes
Analysis: The Line: This line opened at 133 and pretty quickly went upward to 135 before settling at 134.5 as of this morning's writing. I know that many did not get the posted number but this play is good to 136 and it would not surprise me to see it close 134 or less..
Why We Bet It: I am not going to have much to say here because as is with most CBB Plays it is all about the number only and in many more cases than not this one is likely to go over what has been posted. A number of things could influence this game tonight that will help our cause and one which most likely will is the style of Kentucky which is all out offensive basketball. This team is loaded with NBA Talent and they all drive to the hoop to create shot opps and in doing so they get fouled a lot. UConn has the ability to do the same and perhaps is the best passing team in the whole Big Dance. They are monsters at the Free Throw Stripe as well and they most often get there a lot. We always have to keep in mind that playing CBB Totals is about the likelihood of things happening the way they most often do and sometimes those things don't pan out, or teams can't hit shots. That's a chance we always take. In this case there is a high probability than this one goes OVER and I am playing 2%..
Biggest Concerns: As always the 2nd half of this game could get iffy with scoring late with a 1 to 2 possession game..
Added Notes: You can play up to 136 for the Full 2%..
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